Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0-5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18-33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event-free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1-4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4-4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0-6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2-3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4-3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8-5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7-2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival.

Effect of Salt Substitution on Cardiovascular Events and Death.

BACKGROUND: Salt substitutes with reduced sodium levels and increased potassium levels have been shown to lower blood pressure, but their effects on cardiovascular and safety outcomes are uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving persons from 600 villages in rural China. The participants had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure. The villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group, in which the participants used a salt substitute (75% sodium chloride and 25% potassium chloride by mass), or to the control group, in which the participants continued to use regular salt (100% sodium chloride). The primary outcome was stroke, the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events and death from any cause, and the safety outcome was clinical hyperkalemia. RESULTS: A total of 20,995 persons were enrolled in the trial. The mean age of the participants was 65.4 years, and 49.5% were female, 72.6% had a history of stroke, and 88.4% a history of hypertension. The mean duration of follow-up was 4.74 years. The rate of stroke was lower with the salt substitute than with regular salt (29.14 events vs. 33.65 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 0.96; P = 0.006), as were the rates of major cardiovascular events (49.09 events vs. 56.29 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001) and death (39.28 events vs. 44.61 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P<0.001). The rate of serious adverse events attributed to hyperkalemia was not significantly higher with the salt substitute than with regular salt (3.35 events vs. 3.30 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.37; P = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Among persons who had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure, the rates of stroke, major cardiovascular events, and death from any cause were lower with the salt substitute than with regular salt. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; SSaSS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02092090.).

Association between unstable diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration of glycaemic control in people with long-standing diabetes mellitus (diabetes) may be a possible indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the magnitude of the association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer has received little attention. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study, nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women with diabetes. Women with unstable diabetes, defined as a change in medication after a 2-year period of stable medication use, were matched by birth year to those with stable diabetes, in a 1:4 ratio. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included 134,954 and 539,789 women in the unstable and stable diabetes cohorts, respectively (mean age 68 years). In total, 1,315 pancreatic cancers were diagnosed. Deterioration of stable diabetes was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.29-2.85). The risk was particularly high within the first year after diabetes deteriorated. HRs at 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were: 5.76 (95% CI 4.72-7.04); 4.56 (95% CI 3.81-5.46); and 3.33 (95% CI 2.86-3.89), respectively. The risk was no longer significantly different after 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in glycaemic control in people with previously stable diabetes may be an indicator of pancreatic cancer, suggesting investigations of the pancreas may be appropriate. The weaker longer-term (3-7 years) association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer may indicate that poor glycaemic control can be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

Geographic variation in sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use in people with type 2 diabetes in New South Wales, Australia.

AIM: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) improve glycaemic control and cardio-renal outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, geographic and socio-economic variation in use is not well understood. METHODS: We identified 367 829 New South Wales residents aged ≥40 years who dispensed metformin in 2020 as a proxy for T2D. We estimated the prevalence of use of other glucose-lowering medicines among people with T2D and the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use among people using concomitant T2D therapy (i.e. metformin + another glucose-lowering medicine). We measured the prevalence by small-level geography, stratified by age group, and characterized by remoteness and socio-economic status. RESULTS: The prevalence of SGLT2i (29.7%) and GLP-1RA (8.3%) use in people with T2D aged 40-64 increased with geographic remoteness and in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, similar to other glucose-lowering medicines. The prevalence of SGLT2i (55.4%) and GLP-1RA (15.4%) among people using concomitant T2D therapy varied across geographic areas, with lower SGLT2i use in more disadvantaged areas and localized areas of high GLP-1RA use (2.5 times the median). Compared with people aged 40-64 years, the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use was lower in older age groups, but with similar patterns of variation across geographic areas. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use varied by geography, probably reflecting a combination of system- and prescriber-level factors. Socio-economic variation in GLP-1RA use was overshadowed by localized patterns of prescribing. Continued monitoring of variation can help shape interventions to optimize use among people who would benefit the most.

Long-term prescribed opioid use after hospitalization or emergency department presentation among opioid naïve adults (2014-2020)-A population-based descriptive cohort study.

AIMS: The aim of this work is to describe opioid initiation and long-term use after emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations in New South Wales, Australia, by patient, admission and clinical characteristics. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study, including all hospitalizations and ED visits between 2014 and 2020, linked to medicine dispensings, deaths and cancer registrations (Medicines Intelligence Data Platform), among adults with no opioid dispensings in the previous year. Outcome measures were opioid initiations (dispensed within 7 days of discharge) and long-term use (90 days of continuous exposure, 90-270 days after initiation). RESULTS: The cohort included 16 153 096 admissions by 4.2 million opioid-naïve adults; 39.0% were ED presentations without hospital admission, 16.8% hospital admissions via ED and 44.2% direct hospital admissions. Opioids were initiated post-discharge for 6.2% of ED, 8.3% of hospital via ED and 10.0% of direct hospital admissions; of these 1.0%, 2.5% and 0.5% progressed to long-term opioid use, respectively. Initiation was lowest in obstetric admissions without surgery (1.0%), and highest among trauma admissions (25.4%), obstetric admissions with surgical intervention (19.8%) and non-trauma surgical admissions (12.0%). Long-term use was highest among medical admissions via ED (3.5%), trauma admissions (2.3%) and ED alone (1.0%). From 2014 to 2020, overall opioid initiations decreased 16% from 8.7% to 7.2%, and long-term opioid use decreased 33% from 1.3% to 0.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Both opioid initiation and long-term use decreased over time; however, the higher rates of long-term use following trauma, and medical admissions via ED, warrant further surveillance. Strategies supporting appropriate prescribing and access to multidisciplinary pain services will facilitate best practice care.

Oxycodone initiation in Australia (2014-2018): Sociodemographic factors and preceding health service use.

AIMS: Oxycodone is the most commonly prescribed strong opioid in Australia. This study describes health service antecedents and sociodemographic factors associated with oxycodone initiation. METHODS: Population-based new user cohort study linking medicine dispensings, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, medical services and cancer notifications from New South Wales (NSW) for 2014-2018. New users had no dispensings of any opioid in the preceding year. We analysed health service use in the 5 days preceding initiation and proportion of people on treatment over 1 year and fitted an area-based, multivariable initiation model with sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: Oxycodone accounted for 30% of opioid initiations. Annually, 3% of the NSW population initiated oxycodone, and 5-6% were prevalent users; the new user cohort comprised 830 963 people. Discharge from hospital (39.3%), therapeutic procedures (21.4%) and emergency department visits (19.7%) were common; a hospital admission for injury (6.0%) or a past-year history of cancer (7.2%) were less common. At 1 year after initiation, 4.6% of people were using oxycodone. In the multivariable model, new use of oxycodone increased with age and was higher for people outside major cities, for example, an incidence rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.36-1.51) for inner regional areas relative to major cities; there was no evidence of variation in rates of new use by social disadvantage. CONCLUSION: About half of new oxycodone use in NSW was preceded by a recent episode of hospital care or a therapeutic procedure. Higher rates of oxycodone initiation in rural and regional areas were not explained by sociodemographic factors.

The impact of tightened prescribing restrictions for PBS-subsidised opioid medicines and the introduction of half-pack sizes, Australia, 2020-21: an interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of the tightened Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) prescribing rules for immediate release (IR) and controlled release (CR) opioid medicines (1 June 2020), which also eliminated repeat dispensing without authorisation for codeine/paracetamol and tramadol IR and introduced half-pack size item codes for IR formulations. DESIGN, SETTING: Population-based interrupted time series analysis of PBS dispensing data claims for a 10% sample of PBS-eligible residents and IQVIA national opioid medicine sales data (PBS-subsidised and private prescriptions), 28 May 2018 - 6 June 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean amount of PBS-subsidised opioid medicines dispensed per day and mean overall amount sold per day - each expressed as oral morphine equivalent milligrams (OME) - overall, by formulation type (IR, CR), and by specific formulation. RESULTS: During the twelve months following the PBS changes, daily PBS-subsidised opioid medicine dispensing was 81 565 OME lower (95% CI, -106 146 to -56 984 OME) than the mean daily level for 2018-20, a decline of 3.8% after adjusting for the pre-intervention trend; the relative reduction was greater for IR (8.4%) than CR formulations (2.6%). Total daily sales of all, IR formulation, and CR formulation opioid medicines did not change significantly after the PBS changes. Repeat dispensing of prescriptions comprised 7.4% of PBS-subsidised opioid dispensing before 1 June 2020, and 1.3% after the changes. Half-pack sizes comprised 8.4% of PBS-subsidised IR opioid medicine dispensing and 2.8% of all opioid medicines sold in the twelve months after the PBS changes. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of new PBS rules for subsidised opioid medicines was followed by a decline in PBS-subsidised dispensing. Some people may have bypassed the new restrictions by switching to private prescriptions, but our findings suggest that opioid medicine use in Australia declined as a result of the new restrictions.

The Australian Health Care Homes trial: quality of care and patient outcomes. A propensity score-matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the Health Care Homes (HCH) primary health care initiative on quality of care and patient outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING: Quasi-experimental, matched cohort study; analysis of general practice data extracts and linked administrative data from ten Australian primary health networks, 1 October 2017 - 30 June 2021. PARTICIPANTS: People with chronic health conditions (practice data extracts: 9811; linked administrative data: 10 682) enrolled in the HCH 1 October 2017 - 30 June 2019; comparison groups of patients receiving usual care (1:1 propensity score-matched). INTERVENTION: Participants were involved in shared care planning, provided enhanced access to team care, and encouraged to seek chronic condition care at the HCH practice where they were enrolled. Participating practices received bundled payments based on clinical risk tier. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Access to care, processes of care, diabetes-related outcomes, hospital service use, risk of death. RESULTS: During the first twelve months after enrolment, the mean numbers of general practitioner encounters (rate ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.17) and Medicare Benefits Schedule claims for allied health services (rate ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.24-1.33) were higher for the HCH than the usual care group. Annual influenza vaccinations (relative risk, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.17-1.22) and measurements of blood pressure (relative risk, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.08-1.11), blood lipids (relative risk, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.21), glycated haemoglobin (relative risk, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08), and kidney function (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.11-1.15) were more likely in the HCH than the usual care group during the twelve months after enrolment. Similar rate ratios and relative risks applied in the second year. The numbers of emergency department presentations (rate ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.18) and emergency admissions (rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.22) were higher for the HCH group during the first year; other differences in hospital use were not statistically significant. Differences in glycaemic and blood pressure control in people with diabetes in the second year were not statistically significant. By 30 June 2021, 689 people in the HCH group (6.5%) and 646 in the usual care group (6.1%) had died (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.96-1.20). CONCLUSIONS: The HCH program was associated with greater access to care and improved processes of care for people with chronic diseases, but not changes in diabetes-related outcomes, most measures of hospital use, or risk of death.

Expanding access to fracture liaison services in Australia for people with minimal trauma fractures: a system dynamics modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To project how many minimal trauma fractures could be averted in Australia by expanding the number and changing the operational characteristics of fracture liaison services (FLS). STUDY DESIGN: System dynamics modelling. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: People aged 50 years or more who present to hospitals with minimal trauma fractures, Australia, 2020-31. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of all minimal trauma fractures and of hip fractures averted by increasing the FLS number (from 29 to 58 or 100), patient screening rate (from 30% to 60%), and capacity for accepting new patients (from 40 to 80 per service per month), and reducing the proportion of eligible patients who do not attend FLS (from 30% to 15%); cost per fracture averted. RESULTS: Our model projected a total of 2 441 320 minimal trauma fractures (258 680 hip fractures; 2 182 640 non-hip fractures) in people aged 50 years or older during 2020-31, including 1 211 646 second or later fractures. Increasing the FLS number to 100 averted a projected 5405 fractures (0.22%; $39 510 per fracture averted); doubling FLS capacity averted a projected 3674 fractures (0.15%; $35 835 per fracture averted). Our model projected that neither doubling the screening rate nor reducing by half the proportion of eligible patients who did not attend FLS alone would reduce the number of fractures. Increasing the FLS number to 100, the screening rate to 60%, and capacity to 80 new patients per service per month would together avert a projected 13 672 fractures (0.56%) at a cost of $42 828 per fracture averted. CONCLUSION: Our modelling indicates that increasing the number of hospital-based FLS and changing key operational characteristics would achieve only moderate reductions in the number of minimal trauma fractures among people aged 50 years or more, and the cost would be relatively high. Alternatives to specialist-led, hospital-based FLS should be explored.

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

Prevalence and Persistence of Prescription Opioid Use Following Hospital Discharge After Childbirth: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid analgesics are used for acute postpartum pain relief but carry risks, including persistent long-term opioid use. Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of persistent use following hospital discharge after childbirth. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of women discharged from public or private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia, between 2012 and 2018 following vaginal birth (VB) or cesarean delivery (CD). We used linked hospitalization and medicine dispensing data to calculate the prevalence of opioid use within 14 days of hospital discharge for childbirth using an external estimate of the total number of hospital admissions for childbirth per year as the denominator. Among women dispensed an opioid postdischarge, we estimated the prevalence of persistent use defined as ≥3 dispensings between 30- and 365-days postdischarge. To calculate the odds of persistent opioid use, we performed a series of logistic regressions each including a single characteristic of interest. Included characteristics were maternal and birth characteristics, maternal medical conditions, prior use of certain medicines, and the initial opioid dispensed following discharge for childbirth. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised of 38,832 women who were dispensed an opioid in the 14 days following discharge after childbirth. Between 2012 and 2018, the prevalence of opioid use was increased following CD (public hospital 16.6%-21.0%; private hospital 9.8%-19.5%) compared with VB (public hospital 1.5%-1.5%; private hospital 1.2%-1.4%) and was higher following discharge from public hospitals compared with private. The most commonly dispensed opioids following discharge for childbirth were oxycodone (44.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 44.3-45.3), codeine (42.1%; 95% CI, 41.6-42.6), and tramadol (12.9%; 95% CI, 12.6-13.2). Among women dispensed an opioid, the prevalence of persistent opioid use was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.6). This prevalence was 11.4% (95% CI, 10.5-12.3) following a VB as compared with 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1-4.6) among those who underwent a CD ( P < .001). Characteristics associated with persistent opioid use included smoking during pregnancy, age <25 years, living in remote areas, discharged from a public hospital, history of opioid use disorder, other substance use disorder, mental health diagnosis, or prior use of prescription opioids, nonopioid analgesics, or benzodiazepines. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this cohort study indicate that Australian women have a higher prevalence of opioid use following CD compared to VB. One in 19 women dispensed an opioid postdischarge used opioids persistently. Careful monitoring of opioid therapy following childbirth is warranted, particularly among women with characteristics we identified as high risk for persistent opioid use.

Quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sustained-release (SR) tapentadol was listed on Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2014 for chronic severe pain requiring long-term opioid treatment. Dispensings have increased since listing despite declining trends in other PBS-listed opioids. Preferential prescribing of SR opioids may increase the risk of dependence and accidental overdose, particularly when used to treat acute pain. AIMS: To explore the quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia. METHODS: We examined annual initiation rates and patterns of use of tapentadol (SR) in the dispensing records of a 10% random sample of PBS-eligible Australians (2014-2021). We used national tapentadol sales data to assess the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS. RESULTS: Tapentadol initiation increased from 2014, peaking at 7.5/1000 adult population in 2019 before declining to 5.3/1000 in 2021. We identified 63 766 new users between 2014 and 2020, of whom 92.8% discontinued in the first year following initiation, 58.0% had only a single dispensing and 34.3% had no other opioids dispensed in the 3 months before or after initiation. 27.8% of new users were dispensed tapentadol on the same day as potentially interacting medicines. There was a sustained drop in the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS from June 2020 onwards, from an average of 69.1%, to 63.9% of pack sales. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of use suggest tapentadol (SR) is generally used for short duration. Although most tapentadol sold in Australia is subsidised, there is evidence of a shift towards private sales.

Opioid analgesic exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the risk of major congenital malformations in infants: a systematic review and meta-analysis†.

BACKGROUND: Prescribed opioid analgesics are frequently used to manage pain in pregnancy. However, the available literature regarding the teratogenic potential of opioid use during pregnancy has not been systematically summarised. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the quality of the evidence on these potential risks and calculate a pooled estimate of risk for any opioid analgesic and individual opioids. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase and CINAHL for published studies assessing the risk of major congenital malformations in infants following first-trimester exposure to opioid analgesics compared with a reference group, excluding studies examining opioid agonist therapy or illicit opioid use. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Intervention tool. We pooled adjusted risk estimates from studies rated at serious risk of bias or better in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 12 identified studies, 11 were at high risk of bias (eight serious; three critical). Relative to unexposed infants, those exposed to any opioid use during the first trimester of pregnancy were not at an increased risk of major congenital malformations overall (relative risk 1.04, 95%CI 0.98-1.11); cardiovascular malformations (relative risk 1.07, 95%CI 0.96-1.20); or central nervous system malformations (relative risk 1.06, 95%CI 0.92-1.21). Raised risk estimates were observed for gastrointestinal malformations (relative risk 1.40, 95%CI 0.38-5.16) and cleft palate (relative risk 1.57, 95%CI 0.48-5.13) following any opioid exposure and atrial septal defects (relative risk 1.20, 95%CI 1.05-1.36) following codeine exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Although the meta-analysis did not indicate substantial increased risk for most malformations examined, this risk remains uncertain due to the methodological limitations of the included studies. Healthcare professionals and pharmaceutical regulators should be aware of the issues related to the quality of research in this field.

Prescription retinoid and contraception use in women in Australia: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND/OBECTIVES: Oral retinoids are teratogenic, and pregnancy avoidance is an important part of retinoid prescribing. Australia does not have a standardised pregnancy prevention programme for women using oral retinoids, and the contraception strategies for women who use oral retinoids are not well understood. The objectives were to determine trends in the use of prescription retinoids among Australian reproductive-aged women and whether women dispensed oral retinoids used contraception concomitantly. METHODS: This was a population-based study using Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits (PBS) dispensing claims for a random 10% sample of 15-44-year-old Australian women, 2013 - 2021. We described rates and annual trends in dispensing claims for PBS-listed retinoids and contraceptives. We also estimated concomitant oral retinoid and contraceptive use on the day of each retinoid dispensing and determined if there was a period of contraceptive treatment that overlapped. Estimates were then extrapolated to the national level. RESULTS: There were 1,545,800 retinoid dispensings to reproductive-aged women; 57.1% were oral retinoids. The rate of retinoid dispensing to reproductive-aged women increased annually, from 28 dispensings per 1000 population in 2013 to 41 per 1000 in 2021. The rate of oral retinoid dispensing doubled over the study period, from 14 dispensings per 1000 population in 2013 to 28 per 1000 in 2021, while topical retinoid dispensing did not change. Only 25% of oral retinoid dispensings had evidence of concomitant contraceptive use in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of oral retinoid dispensing have doubled among reproductive-aged women over the past decade. A large percentage of oral retinoid use does not appear to have concomitant contraception use, posing a risk of teratogenic effects in pregnancies.

Global application of National Comprehensive Cancer Network resource-stratified guidelines for systemic treatment of colon cancer: a population-based, customisable model for cost, demand, and procurement.

BACKGROUND: Resource-stratified guidelines (RSGs) can inform systemic treatment decisions in the face of limited resources. The objective of this study was to develop a customisable modelling tool to predict the demand, cost, and drug procurement needs of delivering National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) RSG-based systemic treatment for colon cancer. METHODS: We developed decision trees for first-course systemic therapy for colon cancer based on the NCCN RSGs. Decision trees were merged with data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme, the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 national estimates for colon cancer incidence, country-level income data, and data on drug costs from Redbook (USA), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (Australia), and the Management Sciences for Health 2015 International Medical Products price guide to estimate global treatment needs and costs, and forecast drug procurement. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were used to explore the effect of scaling up services globally and the effect of alternative stage distributions on treatment demand and cost. We generated a customisable model, in which estimates can be tailored to local incidence, epidemiological, and costing data. FINDINGS: First-course systemic therapy is indicated in 608 314 (53·6%) of 1 135 864 colon cancer diagnoses in 2020. Indications for first-course systemic therapy are projected to rise to 926 653 in 2040; the indications in 2020 might be as high as 826 123 (72·7%), depending on stage distribution assumptions. Adhering to NCCN RSGs, patients with colon cancer in low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) would constitute 329 098 (54·1%) of 608 314 global systemic therapy demands, but only 10% of global expenditure on systemic therapies. The total cost of NCCN RSG-based first-course systemic therapy for colon cancer in 2020 would be between about US$4·2 and about $4·6 billion, depending on stage distribution. If all patients with colon cancer in 2020 were treated according to maximal resources, global expenditure on systemic therapy for colon cancer would rise to around $8·3 billion. INTERPRETATION: We have developed a customisable model that can be applied at global, national, and subnational levels to estimate systemic treatment needs, forecast drug procurement, and calculate expected drug costs on the basis of local data. This tool can be used to plan resource allocation for colon cancer globally. FUNDING: None.

Patterns of suboptimal antipsychotic use and misuse in Australia: What can routinely collected data tell us?

AIMS: There are increasing concerns about harms related to suboptimal antipsychotic use. Here we describe recent population-based trends in antipsychotic use and harms in Australia and identify population groups exhibiting patterns of use likely to contribute to these harms. METHODS: Using population-based data from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (2015-2020), poisoning calls to the New South Wales (NSW) Poisons Information Centre (2015-2020) and poisoning deaths in all coronial records (2005-2018) in Australia, we measured trends in the prevalence of antipsychotic use and related deaths and poisonings. We applied latent class analyses to identify patterns of antipsychotic use that may contribute to harms. RESULTS: Quetiapine and olanzapine had the highest prevalence of use between 2015 and 2020. Noteworthy trends included increases of 9.1% and 30.8% in quetiapine use and poisonings, while olanzapine use decreased by 4.5% but poisonings increased by 32.7%. Quetiapine and olanzapine poisonings and related deaths had the highest rates of co-ingestion of opioids, benzodiazepines and pregabalin compared to other antipsychotics. We identified six distinct population groups using antipsychotics: (i) ongoing high-dose use with sedatives (8%), (ii) ongoing use (42%), (iii) ongoing use with analgesics and sedatives (11%), (iv) long-term low-dose use (9%), (v) sporadic use (20%) and (vi) sporadic use with analgesics (10%). CONCLUSION: Ongoing potentially suboptimal antipsychotic use and associated harms highlight the need to monitor such patterns of use, for example through prescription monitoring systems.

Potential drug-drug interactions due to concomitant medicine use among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Australia.

AIMS: We quantified concomitant medicine use and occurrence of potential drug-drug interactions in people living with HIV in Australia who are treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: In this cohort study using dispensing claims of a 10% random sample of Australians, we identified 2230 people dispensed ART between January 2018 and December 2019 (mean age 49.0 years, standard deviation 12.0 years, 88% male). We examined concomitant medicine use by identifying nontopical medicines dispensed within 90-days of any antiretroviral medicine dispensing during a 12-month follow-up period. For every antiretroviral and nonantiretroviral pair, we identified and classified possible drug-drug interactions using the University of Liverpool HIV drug interactions database. RESULTS: A total of 1728 (78%) people were dispensed at least 1 and 633 (28%) 5 or more unique medicines in addition to ART in a 12-month period; systemic anti-infectives and medicines acting on the nervous system were the most common (68% and 56%, respectively). Among comedicated people, 1637 (95%) had at least 1 medicine combination classified as weak interactions, 558 (32%) interactions requiring close monitoring/dose adjustment and 94 (5%) that should not be coadministered. Contraindication or interactions requiring close monitoring/dose adjustment were more common among people receiving protease inhibitors (50-73% across different antiretrovirals), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (35-64%), people using single-tablet combinations containing elvitegravir (30-46%) and those using tenofovir disoproxil (26-30%). CONCLUSION: Concomitant medicine use is widespread among people living with HIV in Australia. Despite a relatively low prevalence of contraindicated medicines, almost a third received medicines that require close monitoring or dose adjustment.

Assessing the impact of implementing multiple adherence measures to antiretroviral therapy from dispensing data: a short report.

Pharmacy dispensing data are useful for estimating adherence to therapy. Here, we implement multiple adherence measures to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and provide an online tool for visualising results. We conducted a cohort study for 2,042 people dispensed ART in Australia. We assessed adherence using the Proportion of Days Covered (PDC) within 360 days of follow-up as a continuous measure and dichotomised (PDC ≥80%). We defined a covered day as the 1) exposure to ≥3 antiretrovirals at the same time 2) exposure to any antiretroviral 3) lowest number of days covered per antiretroviral 4) average of days covered over all antiretrovirals 5) highest number of days covered per antiretroviral. For each method, we conducted sensitivity analyses. The median PDC ranged between 93.3%-98.3%. Between 67.0%-87.7% of individuals were classified as adherent, with higher values for measure 2 (85.5%-89.7%) and lower values for measure 3 (67.0%-70.9%). Censoring loss to follow-up had a higher impact on adherence estimates than considering a grace period. The variation in adherence estimates can be substantial, especially when dichotomising adherence. Researchers should consider operationalising multiple measures to estimate adherence bounds and identify a range of people at risk of non-adherence for targeted interventions.

In-hospital outcomes by insurance type among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions for acute myocardial infarction in New South Wales public hospitals.

BACKGROUND: International evidence suggests patients receiving cardiac interventions experience differential outcomes by their insurance status. We investigated outcomes of in-hospital care according to insurance status among patients admitted in public hospitals with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: We conducted a cohort study within the Australian universal health care system with supplemental private insurance. Using linked hospital and mortality data, we included patients aged 18 + years admitted to New South Wales public hospitals with AMI and undergoing their first PCI from 2017-2020. We measured hospital-acquired complications (HACs), length of stay (LOS) and in-hospital mortality among propensity score-matched private and publicly funded patients. Matching was based on socio-demographic, clinical, admission and hospital-related factors. RESULTS: Of 18,237 inpatients, 30.0% were privately funded. In the propensity-matched cohort (n = 10,630), private patients had lower rates of in-hospital mortality than public patients (odds ratio: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.45-0.77; approximately 11 deaths avoided per 1,000 people undergoing PCI procedures). Mortality differences were mostly driven by STEMI patients and those from major cities. There were no significant differences in rates of HACs or average LOS in private, compared to public, patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest patients undergoing PCI in Australian public hospitals with private health insurance experience lower in-hospital mortality compared with their publicly insured counterparts, but in-hospital complications are not related to patient health insurance status. Our findings are likely due to unmeasured confounding of broader patient selection, socioeconomic differences and pathways of care (e.g. access to emergency and ambulatory care; delays in treatment) that should be investigated to improve equity in health outcomes.

Psychotropic and other medicine use at time of death by suicide: a population-level analysis of linked dispensing and forensic toxicology data.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the numbers and types of medicines dispensed around the time of death to people who die by suicide; to compare the medicines recently dispensed and those recorded in post mortem toxicology reports. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of linked National Coronial Information System (NCIS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) data from the Australian Suicide Prevention using Health Linked Data (ASHLi) study, a population-based case series study of closed coronial cases for deaths of people in Australia aged ten years or more during 1 July 2013 - 10 October 2019 deemed by coroners to be the result of intentional self-harm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions of people to whom medicines were dispensed around the time of death, by medicine group, class, and specific medicine; comparison of medicines recently dispensed and those detected by post mortem toxicology. RESULTS: Toxicology reports were available for 13 541 of 14 206 people who died by suicide (95.3%; 10 246 men, 75.7%); poisoning with medicines contributed to 1163 deaths (8.6%). At least one PBS-subsidised medicine had been dispensed around the time of death to 7998 people (59.1%). For three medicine classes, the proportions of people in whom the medicines were detected post mortem and their death was deemed medicine-related were larger for those without records of recent dispensing than for people for whom they had been dispensed around the time of death: antidepressants (17.7% v 12.0%), anxiolytics (16.3% v 14.8%), and sedatives/hypnotics (24.3% v 16.5%). At least one recently dispensed medicine not detected post mortem was identified for 6208 people (45.8%). CONCLUSIONS: A considerable proportion of people who died by suicide were not taking psychotropic medicines recently dispensed to them, suggesting non-adherence to pharmacotherapy, and a smaller than expected proportion were using antidepressants. Conversely, medicines that had not recently been dispensed were detected post mortem in many people for whom poisoning with medicines was a contributing factor, suggesting medicine stockpiling.