Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0-5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18-33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event-free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1-4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4-4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0-6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2-3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4-3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8-5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7-2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival.

Effect of Salt Substitution on Cardiovascular Events and Death.

BACKGROUND: Salt substitutes with reduced sodium levels and increased potassium levels have been shown to lower blood pressure, but their effects on cardiovascular and safety outcomes are uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving persons from 600 villages in rural China. The participants had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure. The villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group, in which the participants used a salt substitute (75% sodium chloride and 25% potassium chloride by mass), or to the control group, in which the participants continued to use regular salt (100% sodium chloride). The primary outcome was stroke, the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events and death from any cause, and the safety outcome was clinical hyperkalemia. RESULTS: A total of 20,995 persons were enrolled in the trial. The mean age of the participants was 65.4 years, and 49.5% were female, 72.6% had a history of stroke, and 88.4% a history of hypertension. The mean duration of follow-up was 4.74 years. The rate of stroke was lower with the salt substitute than with regular salt (29.14 events vs. 33.65 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 0.96; P = 0.006), as were the rates of major cardiovascular events (49.09 events vs. 56.29 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001) and death (39.28 events vs. 44.61 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P<0.001). The rate of serious adverse events attributed to hyperkalemia was not significantly higher with the salt substitute than with regular salt (3.35 events vs. 3.30 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.37; P = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Among persons who had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had high blood pressure, the rates of stroke, major cardiovascular events, and death from any cause were lower with the salt substitute than with regular salt. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; SSaSS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02092090.).

Association between unstable diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration of glycaemic control in people with long-standing diabetes mellitus (diabetes) may be a possible indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the magnitude of the association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer has received little attention. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study, nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women with diabetes. Women with unstable diabetes, defined as a change in medication after a 2-year period of stable medication use, were matched by birth year to those with stable diabetes, in a 1:4 ratio. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included 134,954 and 539,789 women in the unstable and stable diabetes cohorts, respectively (mean age 68 years). In total, 1,315 pancreatic cancers were diagnosed. Deterioration of stable diabetes was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.29-2.85). The risk was particularly high within the first year after diabetes deteriorated. HRs at 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were: 5.76 (95% CI 4.72-7.04); 4.56 (95% CI 3.81-5.46); and 3.33 (95% CI 2.86-3.89), respectively. The risk was no longer significantly different after 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in glycaemic control in people with previously stable diabetes may be an indicator of pancreatic cancer, suggesting investigations of the pancreas may be appropriate. The weaker longer-term (3-7 years) association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer may indicate that poor glycaemic control can be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

Geographic variation in sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use in people with type 2 diabetes in New South Wales, Australia.

AIM: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) improve glycaemic control and cardio-renal outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, geographic and socio-economic variation in use is not well understood. METHODS: We identified 367 829 New South Wales residents aged ≥40 years who dispensed metformin in 2020 as a proxy for T2D. We estimated the prevalence of use of other glucose-lowering medicines among people with T2D and the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use among people using concomitant T2D therapy (i.e. metformin + another glucose-lowering medicine). We measured the prevalence by small-level geography, stratified by age group, and characterized by remoteness and socio-economic status. RESULTS: The prevalence of SGLT2i (29.7%) and GLP-1RA (8.3%) use in people with T2D aged 40-64 increased with geographic remoteness and in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, similar to other glucose-lowering medicines. The prevalence of SGLT2i (55.4%) and GLP-1RA (15.4%) among people using concomitant T2D therapy varied across geographic areas, with lower SGLT2i use in more disadvantaged areas and localized areas of high GLP-1RA use (2.5 times the median). Compared with people aged 40-64 years, the prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use was lower in older age groups, but with similar patterns of variation across geographic areas. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA use varied by geography, probably reflecting a combination of system- and prescriber-level factors. Socio-economic variation in GLP-1RA use was overshadowed by localized patterns of prescribing. Continued monitoring of variation can help shape interventions to optimize use among people who would benefit the most.

Long-term prescribed opioid use after hospitalization or emergency department presentation among opioid naïve adults (2014-2020)-A population-based descriptive cohort study.

AIMS: The aim of this work is to describe opioid initiation and long-term use after emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations in New South Wales, Australia, by patient, admission and clinical characteristics. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study, including all hospitalizations and ED visits between 2014 and 2020, linked to medicine dispensings, deaths and cancer registrations (Medicines Intelligence Data Platform), among adults with no opioid dispensings in the previous year. Outcome measures were opioid initiations (dispensed within 7 days of discharge) and long-term use (90 days of continuous exposure, 90-270 days after initiation). RESULTS: The cohort included 16 153 096 admissions by 4.2 million opioid-naïve adults; 39.0% were ED presentations without hospital admission, 16.8% hospital admissions via ED and 44.2% direct hospital admissions. Opioids were initiated post-discharge for 6.2% of ED, 8.3% of hospital via ED and 10.0% of direct hospital admissions; of these 1.0%, 2.5% and 0.5% progressed to long-term opioid use, respectively. Initiation was lowest in obstetric admissions without surgery (1.0%), and highest among trauma admissions (25.4%), obstetric admissions with surgical intervention (19.8%) and non-trauma surgical admissions (12.0%). Long-term use was highest among medical admissions via ED (3.5%), trauma admissions (2.3%) and ED alone (1.0%). From 2014 to 2020, overall opioid initiations decreased 16% from 8.7% to 7.2%, and long-term opioid use decreased 33% from 1.3% to 0.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Both opioid initiation and long-term use decreased over time; however, the higher rates of long-term use following trauma, and medical admissions via ED, warrant further surveillance. Strategies supporting appropriate prescribing and access to multidisciplinary pain services will facilitate best practice care.

Oxycodone initiation in Australia (2014-2018): Sociodemographic factors and preceding health service use.

AIMS: Oxycodone is the most commonly prescribed strong opioid in Australia. This study describes health service antecedents and sociodemographic factors associated with oxycodone initiation. METHODS: Population-based new user cohort study linking medicine dispensings, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, medical services and cancer notifications from New South Wales (NSW) for 2014-2018. New users had no dispensings of any opioid in the preceding year. We analysed health service use in the 5 days preceding initiation and proportion of people on treatment over 1 year and fitted an area-based, multivariable initiation model with sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: Oxycodone accounted for 30% of opioid initiations. Annually, 3% of the NSW population initiated oxycodone, and 5-6% were prevalent users; the new user cohort comprised 830 963 people. Discharge from hospital (39.3%), therapeutic procedures (21.4%) and emergency department visits (19.7%) were common; a hospital admission for injury (6.0%) or a past-year history of cancer (7.2%) were less common. At 1 year after initiation, 4.6% of people were using oxycodone. In the multivariable model, new use of oxycodone increased with age and was higher for people outside major cities, for example, an incidence rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.36-1.51) for inner regional areas relative to major cities; there was no evidence of variation in rates of new use by social disadvantage. CONCLUSION: About half of new oxycodone use in NSW was preceded by a recent episode of hospital care or a therapeutic procedure. Higher rates of oxycodone initiation in rural and regional areas were not explained by sociodemographic factors.

Use of, time to, and type of first add-on anti-hyperglycaemic therapy to metformin in Australia, 2018-2022.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine contemporary trends in the use of, time to, and type of first add-on anti-hyperglycaemic therapy to metformin in Australia. METHODS: We used the dispensing records of a 10% random sample of Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) eligible people. We included people aged 40 years and older initiating metformin from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020. Our primary outcome was first add-on anti-hyperglycaemic medicine within 2 years of metformin initiation. We analysed time to dispensing of first add-on therapy. All analyses were stratified by metformin initiation year. RESULTS: Overall, 38 747 people aged 40 years and older initiated metformin between 2018 and 2020. Approximately one-third (n = 12 946) of people received add-on therapy with the proportion increasing slightly by year of metformin initiation (32.3% in 2018 to 34.8% in 2020). Amongst people with add-on therapy following metformin initiation, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) use increased from 28.8% (2018) to 35.0% (2020), and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) increased from 3.0% to 9.6%, respectively. Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and sulfonylureas as first add-on therapy decreased and insulin remained stable. One-third of people with add-on therapy initiated the therapy on the same day metformin was initiated, i.e. initial combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst people initiating metformin from 2018 to 2020, there was an increasing proportion of SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA being used as first add-on therapy. However, the overall prevalence of add-on therapy was low. Advocacy to promote add-on therapy with cardiorenal beneficial medicines is critical to reduce type 2 diabetes morbidity and mortality.

Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

The Medicines Intelligence Data Platform: A Population-Based Data Resource From New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The Medicines Intelligence (MedIntel) Data Platform is an anonymised linked data resource designed to generate real-world evidence on prescribed medicine use, effectiveness, safety, costs and cost-effectiveness in Australia. RESULTS: The platform comprises Medicare-eligible people who are ≥18 years and residing in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, any time during 2005-2020, with linked administrative data on dispensed prescription medicines (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme), health service use (Medicare Benefits Schedule), emergency department visits (NSW Emergency Department Data Collection), hospitalisations (NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection) plus death (National Death Index) and cancer registrations (NSW Cancer Registry). Data are currently available to 2022, with approval to update the cohort and data collections annually. The platform includes 7.4 million unique people across all years, covering 36.9% of the Australian adult population; the overall population increased from 4.8 M in 2005 to 6.0 M in 2020. As of 1 January 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year), the cohort had a mean age of 48.7 years (51.1% female), with most people (4.4 M, 74.7%) residing in a major city. In 2019, 4.4 M people (73.3%) were dispensed a medicine, 1.2 M (20.5%) were hospitalised, 5.3 M (89.4%) had a GP or specialist appointment, and 54 003 people died. Anti-infectives were the most prevalent medicines dispensed to the cohort in 2019 (43.1%), followed by nervous system (32.2%) and cardiovascular system medicines (30.2%). CONCLUSION: The MedIntel Data Platform creates opportunities for national and international research collaborations and enables us to address contemporary clinically- and policy-relevant research questions about quality use of medicines and health outcomes in Australia and globally.

Prevalence and Persistence of Prescription Opioid Use Following Hospital Discharge After Childbirth: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid analgesics are used for acute postpartum pain relief but carry risks, including persistent long-term opioid use. Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of persistent use following hospital discharge after childbirth. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of women discharged from public or private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia, between 2012 and 2018 following vaginal birth (VB) or cesarean delivery (CD). We used linked hospitalization and medicine dispensing data to calculate the prevalence of opioid use within 14 days of hospital discharge for childbirth using an external estimate of the total number of hospital admissions for childbirth per year as the denominator. Among women dispensed an opioid postdischarge, we estimated the prevalence of persistent use defined as ≥3 dispensings between 30- and 365-days postdischarge. To calculate the odds of persistent opioid use, we performed a series of logistic regressions each including a single characteristic of interest. Included characteristics were maternal and birth characteristics, maternal medical conditions, prior use of certain medicines, and the initial opioid dispensed following discharge for childbirth. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised of 38,832 women who were dispensed an opioid in the 14 days following discharge after childbirth. Between 2012 and 2018, the prevalence of opioid use was increased following CD (public hospital 16.6%-21.0%; private hospital 9.8%-19.5%) compared with VB (public hospital 1.5%-1.5%; private hospital 1.2%-1.4%) and was higher following discharge from public hospitals compared with private. The most commonly dispensed opioids following discharge for childbirth were oxycodone (44.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 44.3-45.3), codeine (42.1%; 95% CI, 41.6-42.6), and tramadol (12.9%; 95% CI, 12.6-13.2). Among women dispensed an opioid, the prevalence of persistent opioid use was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.6). This prevalence was 11.4% (95% CI, 10.5-12.3) following a VB as compared with 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1-4.6) among those who underwent a CD ( P < .001). Characteristics associated with persistent opioid use included smoking during pregnancy, age <25 years, living in remote areas, discharged from a public hospital, history of opioid use disorder, other substance use disorder, mental health diagnosis, or prior use of prescription opioids, nonopioid analgesics, or benzodiazepines. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this cohort study indicate that Australian women have a higher prevalence of opioid use following CD compared to VB. One in 19 women dispensed an opioid postdischarge used opioids persistently. Careful monitoring of opioid therapy following childbirth is warranted, particularly among women with characteristics we identified as high risk for persistent opioid use.