Genomic Underpinnings of Population Persistence in Isle Royale Moose.

Island ecosystems provide natural laboratories to assess the impacts of isolation on population persistence. However, most studies of persistence have focused on a single species, without comparisons to other organisms they interact with in the ecosystem. The case study of moose and gray wolves on Isle Royale allows for a direct contrast of genetic variation in isolated populations that have experienced dramatically differing population trajectories over the past decade. Whereas the Isle Royale wolf population recently declined nearly to extinction due to severe inbreeding depression, the moose population has thrived and continues to persist, despite having low genetic diversity and being isolated for ∼120 years. Here, we examine the patterns of genomic variation underlying the continued persistence of the Isle Royale moose population. We document high levels of inbreeding in the population, roughly as high as the wolf population at the time of its decline. However, inbreeding in the moose population manifests in the form of intermediate-length runs of homozygosity suggestive of historical inbreeding and purging, contrasting with the long runs of homozygosity observed in the smaller wolf population. Using simulations, we confirm that substantial purging has likely occurred in the moose population. However, we also document notable increases in genetic load, which could eventually threaten population viability over the long term. Overall, our results demonstrate a complex relationship between inbreeding, genetic diversity, and population viability that highlights the use of genomic datasets and computational simulation tools for understanding the factors enabling persistence in isolated populations.

Links between three chronic and age-related diseases, osteoarthritis, periodontitis, and osteoporosis, in a wild mammal (moose) population.

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis, periodontitis and osteoporosis are chronic, age-related diseases which adversely impact millions of people worldwide. Because these diseases pose a major global public health challenge, there is an urgent need to better understand how these diseases are interrelated. Our objective was to document the age and sex-specific prevalence of each disease and assess interrelationships among the three diseases in a wild mammal (moose, Alces alces) population. METHODS: We examined the bones of moose dying from natural causes and recorded the severity of osteoarthritis (typically observed on the hip and lowest vertebrae), osteoporosis (osteoporotic lesions observed on the skull) and periodontitis (observed on maxilla and mandibles). RESULTS: Periodontitis was associated with a greater prevalence of both severe osteoarthritis and osteoporotic lesions in moose. We found no evidence to suggest that moose with osteoporotic lesions were more or less likely to exhibit signs of osteoarthritis or severe osteoarthritis. The prevalence of osteoarthritis, periodontitis and osteoporotic lesions was greater among males than for females. CONCLUSIONS: Our results were consistent with the hypothesis that bacterial pathogens causing periodontitis are a risk factor for osteoarthritis and osteoporosis. They are also consistent with the hypothesis that the inverse association between osteoarthritis and osteoporosis sometimes observed in humans may be influenced by shared risk factors, such as obesity, smoking or alcohol consumption, which are absent in moose. Together these results provide insights about three diseases which are expected to become more prevalent in the future and that cause substantial socio-economic burdens.

The difficulty of detecting inbreeding depression and its effect on conservation decisions.

Statistical inferences about inbreeding depression are often derived from analyses with low power and a high risk of failing to detect inbreeding depression. That risk is widely appreciated by scientists familiar with the relevant statistical and genetical theory, but may be overlooked and underappreciated by decision-makers. Consequently, there is value in demonstrating this risk using a real example. We use data from the wolf population on Isle Royale to demonstrate the difficulty of making reliable statistical inferences about inbreeding depression. This wolf population is known-by other methods-to have gone effectively extinct due to deleterious genetic processes associated with inbreeding. Beyond that demonstration, we use two case-studies-wolves on Isle Royale and vaquita (porpoises) from the Gulf of California, Mexico-to show how statistical inferences about inbreeding depression can affect conservation decisions. According to most decision theory, decisions depend importantly on: 1) probabilities that certain states exist (e.g. inbreeding depression is present) and 2) the utility assigned to various outcomes (e.g. the value of acting to mitigate inbreeding when it is present). The probabilities are provided by statistical inference; whereas utilities are almost entirely determined by normative values and judgements. Our analysis suggests that decisions to mitigate inbreeding depression are often driven more by utilities (normative values) than probabilities (statistical inferences). As such, advocates for mitigating inbreeding depression will benefit from better communicating to decision-makers the value of populations persisting and the extent to which decisions should depend on normative values.

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food web dynamics.

Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context-dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free-ranging animal populations. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free-ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10-year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency-dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food-chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency-dependent foraging was further mediated by density-dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. The food-chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency-dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density-dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently.

Genomic Variation of Inbreeding and Ancestry in the Remaining Two Isle Royale Wolves.

Inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry have traditionally been estimated with pedigree information, however, molecular genomic data can provide more detailed examination of these properties. For example, pedigree information provides estimation of the expected value of these measures but molecular genomic data can estimate the realized values of these measures in individuals. Here, we generate the theoretical distribution of inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry for the individuals in the pedigree of the Isle Royale wolves, the first examination of such variation in a wild population with a known pedigree. We use the 38 autosomes of the dog genome and their estimated map lengths in our genomic analysis. Although it is known that the remaining wolves are highly inbred, closely related, and descend from only 3 ancestors, our analyses suggest that there is significant variation in the realized inbreeding and relatedness around pedigree expectations. For example, the expected inbreeding in a hypothetical offspring from the 2 remaining wolves is 0.438 but the realized 95% genomic confidence interval is from 0.311 to 0.565. For individual chromosomes, a substantial proportion of the whole chromosomes are completely identical by descent. This examination provides a background to use when analyzing molecular genomic data for individual levels of inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry. The level of variation in these measures is a function of the time to the common ancestor(s), the number of chromosomes, and the rate of recombination. In the Isle Royale wolf population, the few generations to a common ancestor results in the high variance in genomic inbreeding.

The influence of winter severity, predation and senescence on moose habitat use.

Habitat use is widely known to be influenced by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate, population density, foraging opportunity and predation risk. The influence of the life-history state of an individual organism on habitat use is less well understood, especially for terrestrial mammals. There is good reason to expect that life-history state would affect habitat use. For example, organisms exhibiting poor condition associated with senescence have an increased vulnerability to predation and that vulnerability is known to alter habitat use strategies. We assessed the influence of life-history stage on habitat use for 732 moose (Alces alces) killed by wolves (Canis lupus) over a 50-year period in Isle Royale National Park, an island ecosystem in Lake Superior, USA. We developed regression models to assess how location of death was associated with a moose's life-history stage (prime-aged or senescent), presence or absence of senescent-associated pathology (osteoarthritis and jaw necrosis), and annual variation in winter severity, moose density and ratio of moose to wolves, which is an index of predation risk. Compared to senescent moose, prime-aged moose tend to make greater use of habitat farther from the shoreline of Isle Royale. That result is ecologically relevant because shoreline habitat on Isle Royale tends to provide better foraging opportunities for moose but is also associated with increased predation risk. During severe winters prime-aged moose tend to make greater use of habitat that is closer to shore in relation to senescent-aged moose. Furthermore, moose of both age classes were more likely to die in riskier, shoreline habitat during years when predation risk was lower in the preceding year. Our results highlight a complicated connection between life history, age-structured population dynamics and habitat-related behaviour. Our analysis also illustrates why intraspecific competition should not be the presumed mechanism underlying density-dependent habitat use, if predation risk is related to density, as it is expected to be in many systems.

The far-reaching effects of genetic process in a keystone predator species, grey wolves.

Although detrimental genetic processes are known to adversely affect the viability of populations, little is known about how detrimental genetic processes in a keystone species can affect the functioning of ecosystems. Here, we assessed how changes in the genetic characteristics of a keystone predator, grey wolves, affected the ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park over two decades. Changes in the genetic characteristic of the wolf population associated with a genetic rescue event, followed by high levels of inbreeding, led to a rise and then fall in predation rates on moose, the primary prey of wolves and dominant mammalian herbivore in this system. Those changes in predation rate led to large fluctuations in moose abundance, which in turn affected browse rates on balsam fir, the dominant forage for moose during winter and an important boreal forest species. Thus, forest dynamics can be traced back to changes in the genetic characteristics of a predator population.

Bat-cave catchment areas: using stable isotopes (deltaD) to determine the probable origins of hibernating bats.

The application of stable hydrogen isotope (deltaD) techniques has swiftly advanced our understanding of animal movements, but this progression is dominated by studies of birds and relatively long-distance, north-south migrants. This dominance reflects the challenge of incorporating multiple sources of error into geographic assignments and the nature of spatially explicit deltaD models, which possess greater latitudinal than longitudinal resolution. However, recent progress in likelihood-based assignments that incorporate multiple sources of isotopic error and Bayesian approaches that include additional sources of information may advance finer-scale understanding of animal movements. We develop a stable-isotope method for determining probable origins of bats within hibernacula and show that this method produces spatially explicit, continuous assignments with regional resolution. We outline how these assignments can be used to infer hibernacula connectivity, an application that could inform spatial modeling of white-nose syndrome. Additionally, estimates of seasonal and annual flight distances for many cave-dwelling bat species can be derived from this approach. We also discuss how this application can be used in general to provide insights into variable migratory and foraging strategies within bat populations.

Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park.

1. For large predators living in seasonal environments, patterns of predation are likely to vary among seasons because of related changes in prey vulnerability. Variation in prey vulnerability underlies the influence of predators on prey populations and the response of predators to seasonal variation in rates of biomass acquisition. Despite its importance, seasonal variation in predation is poorly understood. 2. We assessed seasonal variation in prey composition and kill rate for wolves Canis lupus living on the Northern Range (NR) of Yellowstone National Park. Our assessment was based on data collected over 14 winters (1995-2009) and five spring-summers between 2004 and 2009. 3. The species composition of wolf-killed prey and the age and sex composition of wolf-killed elk Cervus elaphus (the primary prey for NR wolves) varied among seasons. 4. One's understanding of predation depends critically on the metric used to quantify kill rate. For example, kill rate was greatest in summer when quantified as the number of ungulates acquired per wolf per day, and least during summer when kill rate was quantified as the biomass acquired per wolf per day. This finding contradicts previous research that suggests that rates of biomass acquisition for large terrestrial carnivores tend not to vary among seasons. 5. Kill rates were not well correlated among seasons. For example, knowing that early-winter kill rate is higher than average (compared with other early winters) provides little basis for anticipating whether kill rates a few months later during late winter will be higher or lower than average (compared with other late winters). This observation indicates how observing, for example, higher-than-average kill rates throughout any particular season is an unreliable basis for inferring that the year-round average kill rate would be higher than average. 6. Our work shows how a large carnivore living in a seasonal environment displays marked seasonal variation in predation because of changes in prey vulnerability. Patterns of wolf predation were influenced by the nutritional condition of adult elk and the availability of smaller prey (i.e. elk calves, deer). We discuss how these patterns affect our overall understanding of predator and prey population dynamics.

Genomic sweep and potential genetic rescue during limiting environmental conditions in an isolated wolf population.

Genetic rescue, in which the introduction of one or more unrelated individuals into an inbred population results in the reduction of detrimental genetic effects and an increase in one or more vital rates, is a potentially important management tool for mitigating adverse effects of inbreeding. We used molecular techniques to document the consequences of a male wolf (Canis lupus) that immigrated, on its own, across Lake Superior ice to the small, inbred wolf population in Isle Royale National Park. The immigrant's fitness so exceeded that of native wolves that within 2.5 generations, he was related to every individual in the population and his ancestry constituted 56 per cent of the population, resulting in a selective sweep of the total genome. In other words, all the male ancestry (50% of the total ancestry) descended from this immigrant, plus 6 per cent owing to the success of some of his inbred offspring. The immigration event occurred in an environment where space was limiting (i.e. packs occupied all available territories) and during a time when environmental conditions had deteriorated (i.e. wolves' prey declined). These conditions probably explain why the immigration event did not obviously improve the population's demography (e.g. increased population numbers or growth rate). Our results show that the beneficial effects of gene flow may be substantial and quickly manifest, short-lived under some circumstances, and how the demographic benefits of genetic rescue might be masked by environmental conditions.

Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological communities. Second, kill rate is the primary statistic for many traditional models of predation. However, our work suggests that kill rate and PR are similarly important for understanding why predation is such a complex process.

Ecology of arthritis.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a widespread degenerative disease of skeletal joints and is often associated with senescence in vertebrates. OA commonly results from excessive or abnormal mechanical loading of weight-bearing joints ('wear-and-tear'), arising from heavy long-term use or specific injuries; yet, in the absence of injury, the aetiology of OA remains obscure. We show that poor nutritional conditions experienced by moose (Alces alces) early in life are linked to greater prevalence of OA during senescence as well as reduced life expectancy. Moreover, we also found a negative relationship between kill rate by wolves (Canis lupus) and prevalence of OA, suggesting a potential connection between senescence of prey and the population ecology of predator-prey systems. This association between OA and early malnutrition also provides a basis for explaining the observation in anthropology that OA became more prevalent in native Americans as their diet become poorer - the result of relying more on corn and agriculture and less on hunting and gathering.

Wolves modulate soil nutrient heterogeneity and foliar nitrogen by configuring the distribution of ungulate carcasses.

Mechanistic links between top terrestrial predators and biogeochemical processes remain poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that large carnivores configure landscape heterogeneity through prey carcass distribution. A 50-year record composed of > 3600 moose carcasses from Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA, showed that wolves modulate heterogeneity in soil nutrients, soil microbes, and plant quality by clustering prey carcasses over space. Despite being well utilized by predators, moose carcasses resulted in elevated soil macronutrients and microbial biomass, shifts in soil microbial composition, and elevated leaf nitrogen for at least 2-3 years at kill sites. Wolf-killed moose were deposited in some regions of the study landscape at up to 12x the rate of deposition in other regions. Carcass density also varied temporally, changing as much as 19-fold in some locations during the 50-year study period. This variation arises, in part, directly from variation in wolf hunting behavior. This study identifies a top terrestrial predator as a mechanism generating landscape heterogeneity, demonstrating reciprocal links between large carnivore behavior and ecosystem function.

Large herbivores and aquatic-terrestrial links in southern boreal forests.

1. Concurrent measurement of population dynamics and associated spatio-temporal patterns of resource flow across aquatic-terrestrial boundaries are rare, yet necessary to understand the consequences of cross-habitat resource flux. Long-term study of the moose Alces alces (L.) population in Isle Royale National Park (Lake Superior, USA) provides an opportunity to examine the patterns of resource flux from aquatic to terrestrial habitats over approximately50 years. 2. We analysed the spatio-temporal dynamics of aquatic-derived nitrogen (N) that moose transfer to terrestrial systems by using excretion models, foraging parameters, moose densities, and moose carcass locations (n = 3616) collected from 1958-2005. 3. Results suggest that moose transfer significant amounts of aquatic-derived N to terrestrial systems, which likely increases terrestrial N availability in riparian zones. A seasonal increase in terrestrial N availability when moose are foraging on N-rich aquatic macrophytes would contrast with the depression of soil N mineralization previously attributed indirectly to moose. 4. Aquatic foraging by moose and moose carcass locations are significantly clustered at multiple scales, indicating that grey wolves Canis lupus (L.) and moose can create concentrated areas of resource transfer due to clustered predation and foraging patterns. 5. This study shows that patterns of faunal-mediated resource transfer can depend significantly on predator-prey dynamics, and that large predators in this system influence herbivore-controlled resource transfer between ecosystems. Given the circumpolar extent of moose, they constitute an important, unquantified aquatic-terrestrial resource vector in boreal systems.

Mercury, lead and lead isotope ratios in the teeth of moose (Alces alces) from Isle Royale, U.S. Upper Midwest, from 1952 to 2002.

Assessing the effect of recent reductions in atmospheric pollution on metal concentrations in wildlife in North America has been difficult because of the sparse availability of historical samples with which to establish a "pre-regulation" baseline, and because many ecosystems may be affected by local point sources which could obscure broader-scale trends. Here we report a recent 50 yr annual record of Hg, Pb and Pb isotope ratios in the teeth of a resident population of moose (Alces alces) in Isle Royale National Park, a relatively remote island in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA. During the early 1980s, concentrations of tooth Hg abruptly declined by approximately 65% compared to the previous 30 years (p<0.001), similar to a previous study of Hg in herring gull eggs in the Great Lakes region. Lead declined at the same time, and by 2002 Pb in adult moose teeth was approximately 80% lower than it had been prior to the early 1980s (p<0.001). These trends were unaffected by normalization against the geogenic elements La and Sr, which indicates that the trends in Hg and Pb had an anthropogenic cause. Temporal patterns of Pb isotope ratios suggested that the primary sources of Pb at different times in the moose were combustion of U.S. coal and leaded gasoline. Reductions in emissions from coal combustion might explain the co-incident reductions of Hg and Pb in Isle Royale moose, with elimination of alkyl Pb additives also playing a role in the continued tooth Pb reductions after 1983.

Tooth fracture frequency in gray wolves reflects prey availability.

Exceptionally high rates of tooth fracture in large Pleistocene carnivorans imply intensified interspecific competition, given that tooth fracture rises with increased bone consumption, a behavior that likely occurs when prey are difficult to acquire. To assess the link between prey availability and dental attrition, we documented dental fracture rates over decades among three well-studied populations of extant gray wolves that differed in prey:predator ratio and levels of carcass utilization. When prey:predator ratios declined, kills were more fully consumed, and rates of tooth fracture more than doubled. This supports tooth fracture frequency as a relative measure of the difficulty of acquiring prey, and reveals a rapid response to diminished food levels in large carnivores despite risks of infection and reduced fitness due to dental injuries. More broadly, large carnivore tooth fracture frequency likely reflects energetic stress, an aspect of predator success that is challenging to quantify in wild populations.

Genomic signatures of extensive inbreeding in Isle Royale wolves, a population on the threshold of extinction.

The observation that small isolated populations often suffer reduced fitness from inbreeding depression has guided conservation theory and practice for decades. However, investigating the genome-wide dynamics associated with inbreeding depression in natural populations is only now feasible with relatively inexpensive sequencing technology and annotated reference genomes. To characterize the genome-wide effects of intense inbreeding and isolation, we performed whole-genome sequencing and morphological analysis of an iconic inbred population, the gray wolves (Canis lupus) of Isle Royale. Through population genetic simulations and comparison with wolf genomes from a variety of demographic histories, we find evidence that severe inbreeding depression in this population is due to increased homozygosity of strongly deleterious recessive mutations. Our results have particular relevance in light of the recent translocation of wolves from the mainland to Isle Royale, as well as broader implications for management of genetic variation in the fragmented landscape of the modern world.

Stable isotopes, ecological integration and environmental change: wolves record atmospheric carbon isotope trend better than tree rings.

Large-scale patterns of isotope ratios are detectable in the tissues of organisms, but the variability in these patterns often obscures detection of environmental trends. We show that plants and animals at lower trophic levels are relatively poor indicators of the temporal trend in atmospheric carbon isotope ratios (delta13C) when compared with animals at higher trophic levels. First, we tested how differences in atmospheric delta13C values were transferred across three trophic levels. Second, we compared contemporary delta13C trends (1961-2004) in atmospheric CO2 to delta13C patterns in a tree species (jack pine, Pinus banksiana), large herbivore (moose, Alces alces) and large carnivore (grey wolf, Canis lupus) from North America. Third, we compared palaeontological (approx. 30000 to 12000 14C years before present) atmospheric CO2 trends to delta13C patterns in a tree species (Pinus flexilis, Juniperus sp.), a megaherbivore (bison, Bison antiquus) and a large carnivore (dire wolf, Canis dirus) from the La Brea tar pits (southern California, USA) and Great Basin (western USA). Contrary to previous expectations, we found that the environmental isotope pattern is better represented with increasing trophic level. Our results indicate that museum specimens of large carnivores would best reflect large-scale spatial and temporal patterns of carbon isotopes in the palaeontological record because top predators can act as ecological integrators of environmental change.