Identification and correction for collider bias in a genome-wide association study of diabetes-related heart failure.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF) and has elevated incidence among individuals with HF. Since genetics and HF can independently influence T2D, collider bias may occur when T2D (i.e., collider) is controlled for by design or analysis. Thus, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of diabetes-related HF with correction for collider bias. We first performed a GWAS of HF to identify genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for HF and to enable bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis between T2D and HF. We identified 61 genomic loci, significantly associated with all-cause HF in 114,275 individuals with HF and over 1.5 million controls of European ancestry. Using a two-sample bidirectional MR approach with 59 and 82 GIVs for HF and T2D, respectively, we estimated that T2D increased HF risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.10), while HF also increased T2D risk (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36-1.88). Then we performed a GWAS of diabetes-related HF corrected for collider bias due to the study design of index cases. After removing the spurious association of TCF7L2 locus due to collider bias, we identified two genome-wide significant loci close to PITX2 (chromosome 4) and CDKN2B-AS1 (chromosome 9) associated with diabetes-related HF in the Million Veteran Program and replicated the associations in the UK Biobank. Our MR findings provide strong evidence that HF increases T2D risk. As a result, collider bias leads to spurious genetic associations of diabetes-related HF, which can be effectively corrected to identify true positive loci.

Glycemia Reduction in Type 2 Diabetes - Microvascular and Cardiovascular Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the comparative effectiveness of commonly used glucose-lowering medications, when added to metformin, with respect to microvascular and cardiovascular disease outcomes in persons with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We assessed the comparative effectiveness of four commonly used glucose-lowering medications, added to metformin, in achieving and maintaining a glycated hemoglobin level of less than 7.0% in participants with type 2 diabetes. The randomly assigned therapies were insulin glargine U-100 (hereafter, glargine), glimepiride, liraglutide, and sitagliptin. Prespecified secondary outcomes with respect to microvascular and cardiovascular disease included hypertension and dyslipidemia, confirmed moderately or severely increased albuminuria or an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area, diabetic peripheral neuropathy assessed with the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument, cardiovascular events (major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE], hospitalization for heart failure, or an aggregate outcome of any cardiovascular event), and death. Hazard ratios are presented with 95% confidence limits that are not adjusted for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: During a mean 5.0 years of follow-up in 5047 participants, there were no material differences among the interventions with respect to the development of hypertension or dyslipidemia or with respect to microvascular outcomes; the mean overall rate (i.e., events per 100 participant-years) of moderately increased albuminuria levels was 2.6, of severely increased albuminuria levels 1.1, of renal impairment 2.9, and of diabetic peripheral neuropathy 16.7. The treatment groups did not differ with respect to MACE (overall rate, 1.0), hospitalization for heart failure (0.4), death from cardiovascular causes (0.3), or all deaths (0.6). There were small differences with respect to rates of any cardiovascular disease, with 1.9, 1.9, 1.4, and 2.0 in the glargine, glimepiride, liraglutide, and sitagliptin groups, respectively. When one treatment was compared with the combined results of the other three treatments, the hazard ratios for any cardiovascular disease were 1.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 1.3) in the glargine group, 1.1 (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.4) in the glimepiride group, 0.7 (95% CI, 0.6 to 0.9) in the liraglutide group, and 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5) in the sitagliptin group. CONCLUSIONS: In participants with type 2 diabetes, the incidences of microvascular complications and death were not materially different among the four treatment groups. The findings indicated possible differences among the groups in the incidence of any cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; GRADE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01794143.).

Association of type 2 diabetes mellitus with dementia-related and non-dementia-related mortality among postmenopausal women: A secondary competing risks analysis of the women's health initiative.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and AD-related dementias (ADRD) are leading causes of death among older adults in the United States. Efforts to understand risk factors for prevention are needed. METHODS: Participants (n = 146,166) enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative without AD at baseline were included. Diabetes status was ascertained from self-reported questionnaires and deaths attributed to AD/ADRD from hospital, autopsy, and death records. Competing risk regression models were used to estimate the cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the prospective association of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with AD/ADRD and non-AD/ADRD mortality. RESULTS: There were 29,393 treated T2DM cases and 8628 AD/ADRD deaths during 21.6 (14.0-23.5) median (IQR) years of follow-up. Fully adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of the association with T2DM were 2.94 (2.76-3.12) for AD/ADRD and 2.65 (2.60-2.71) for the competing risk of non-AD/ADRD mortality. DISCUSSION: T2DM is associated with AD/ADRD and non-AD/ADRD mortality. HIGHLIGHTS: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is more strongly associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD)/AD and related dementias (ADRD) mortality compared to the competing risk of non-AD/ADRD mortality among postmenopausal women. This relationship was consistent for AD and ADRD, respectively. This association is strongest among participants without obesity or hypertension and with younger age at baseline, higher diet quality, higher physical activity, higher alcohol consumption, and older age at the time of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Diabetes, metformin use and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in postmenopausal women: A prospective cohort analysis in the Women's Health Initiative.

Epidemiologic evidence is limited about associations between T2DM, metformin, and the risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). We aimed to examine associations between T2DM, metformin, and the risk of NHL in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Study. Information on T2DM status (diabetes status/types of antidiabetic drug use/diabetes duration) from study enrollment and during follow-up were assessed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to evaluate associations of T2DM status with risks of overall NHL and its three major subtypes [diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL, n = 476), follicular lymphoma (FL, n = 301) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL, n = 136)] based on multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up of 18.86 years (range, 0.01-25.13; SD ± 6.55), a total of 1637 women developed NHL among 147 885 postmenopausal women. Women with T2DM and with self-reported oral medication use had 38% and 55% higher risk of DLBCL, respectively [multivariable-adjusted model HR = 1.38, 95% CI (1.06-1.81) and HR = 1.55, 95% CI (1.16-2.06)] compared to the reference group (nondiabetics/untreated diabetes). Risks of NHL and DLBCL [multivariable-adjusted model: HR = 1.28, 95% CI (1.06-1.54) and HR = 1.56, 95% CI (1.13-2.14), respectively] were significantly higher in associations with relatively short duration (≤7 years) of diabetes, compared to reference group. Additionally, an increased risk of DLBCL [HR = 1.76, 95% CI (1.13-2.75)] was found in metformin users compared to the reference group. Postmenopausal women who had T2DM, who were oral antidiabetic drug users, especially metformin, and who had a shorter diabetes duration may have higher risks of DLBCL. Further well-designed research is needed to confirm our findings.

Design and pilot implementation for the BETTER CARE-HF trial: A pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing two targeted approaches to ambulatory clinical decision support for cardiologists.

BACKGROUND: Beart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. However, shortfalls in prescribing of proven therapies, particularly mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) therapy, account for several thousand preventable deaths per year nationwide. Electronic clinical decision support (CDS) is a potential low-cost and scalable solution to improve prescribing of therapies. However, the optimal timing and format of CDS tools is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed two targeted CDS tools to inform cardiologists of gaps in MRA therapy for patients with HFrEF and without contraindication to MRA therapy: (1) an alert that notifies cardiologists at the time of patient visit, and (2) an automated electronic message that allows for review between visits. We designed these tools using an established CDS framework and findings from semistructured interviews with cardiologists. We then pilot tested both CDS tools (n = 596 patients) and further enhanced them based on additional semistructured interviews (n = 11 cardiologists). The message was modified to reduce the number of patients listed, include future visits, and list date of next visit. The alert was modified to improve noticeability, reduce extraneous information on guidelines, and include key information on contraindications. CONCLUSIONS: The BETTER CARE-HF (Building Electronic Tools to Enhance and Reinforce CArdiovascular REcommendations for Heart Failure) trial aims to compare the effectiveness of the alert vs. the automated message vs. usual care on the primary outcome of MRA prescribing. To our knowledge, no study has directly compared the efficacy of these two different types of electronic CDS interventions. If effective, our findings can be rapidly disseminated to improve morbidity and mortality for patients with HFrEF, and can also inform the development of future CDS interventions for other disease states. (Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT05275920).

Use of comprehensive recruitment strategies in the glycemia reduction approaches in diabetes: A comparative effectiveness study (GRADE) multi-center clinical trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: We present and describe recruitment strategies implemented from 2013 to 2017 across 45 clinical sites in the United States, participating in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study, an unmasked, randomized controlled trial evaluating four glucose-lowering medications added to metformin in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (duration of diabetes <10 years). We examined the yield of participants recruited through Electronic Health Records systems compared to traditional recruitment methods to leverage access to type 2 diabetes patients in primary care. METHODS: Site selection criteria included availability of the study population, geographic representation, the ability to recruit and retain a diverse pool of participants including traditionally underrepresented groups, and prior site research experience in diabetes clinical trials. Recruitment initiatives were employed to support and monitor recruitment, such as creation of a Recruitment and Retention Committee, development of criteria for Electronic Health Record systems queries, conduct of remote site visits, development of a public screening website, and other central and local initiatives. Notably, the study supported a dedicated recruitment coordinator at each site to manage local recruitment and facilitate screening of potential participants identified by Electronic Health Record systems. RESULTS: The study achieved the enrollment goal of 5000 participants, meeting its target with Black/African American (20%), Hispanic/Latino (18%), and age ≧60 years (42%) subgroups but not with women (36%). Recruitment required 1 year more than the 3 years originally planned. Sites included academic hospitals, integrated health systems, and Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Participants were enrolled through Electronic Health Record queries (68%), physician referral (13%), traditional mail outreach (7%), TV, radio, flyers, and Internet (7%), and other strategies (5%). Early implementation of targeted Electronic Health Record queries yielded a greater number of eligible participants compared to other recruitment methods. Efforts over time increasingly emphasized engagement with primary care networks. CONCLUSION: Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness successfully recruited a diverse study population with relatively new onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, relying to a large extent on the use of Electronic Health Record to screen potential participants. A comprehensive approach to recruitment with frequent monitoring was critical to meet the recruitment goal.

Mendelian randomization study of diabetes and dementia in the Million Veteran Program.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes and dementia are diseases of high health-care burden worldwide. Individuals with diabetes have 1.4 to 2.2 times higher risk of dementia. Our objective was to evaluate evidence of causality between these two common diseases. METHODS: We conducted a one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis in the US Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran program. The study included 334,672 participants ≥65 years of age with type 2 diabetes and dementia case-control status and genotype data. RESULTS: For each standard deviation increase in genetically predicted diabetes, we found increased odds of three dementia diagnoses in non-Hispanic White participants (all-cause: odds ratio [OR] = 1.07 [1.05-1.08], P = 3.40E-18; vascular: OR = 1.11 [1.07-1.15], P = 3.63E-09, Alzheimer's disease [AD]: OR = 1.06 [1.02-1.09], P = 6.84E-04) and non-Hispanic Black participants (all-cause: OR = 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 3.66E-03, vascular: OR = 1.11 [1.04-1.19], P = 2.20E-03, AD: OR = 1.12 [1.02-1.23], P = 1.60E-02) but not in Hispanic participants (all P > 0.05). DISCUSSION: We found evidence of causality between diabetes and dementia using a one-sample MR study, with access to individual level data, overcoming limitations of prior studies using two-sample MR techniques.

Multi-ethnic GWAS and fine-mapping of glycaemic traits identify novel loci in the PAGE Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes is a growing global public health challenge. Investigating quantitative traits, including fasting glucose, fasting insulin and HbA1c, that serve as early markers of type 2 diabetes progression may lead to a deeper understanding of the genetic aetiology of type 2 diabetes development. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 500 loci associated with type 2 diabetes, glycaemic traits and insulin-related traits. However, most of these findings were based only on populations of European ancestry. To address this research gap, we examined the genetic basis of fasting glucose, fasting insulin and HbA1c in participants of the diverse Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study. METHODS: We conducted a GWAS of fasting glucose (n = 52,267), fasting insulin (n = 48,395) and HbA1c (n = 23,357) in participants without diabetes from the diverse PAGE Study (23% self-reported African American, 46% Hispanic/Latino, 40% European, 4% Asian, 3% Native Hawaiian, 0.8% Native American), performing transethnic and population-specific GWAS meta-analyses, followed by fine-mapping to identify and characterise novel loci and independent secondary signals in known loci. RESULTS: Four novel associations were identified (p < 5 × 10-9), including three loci associated with fasting insulin, and a novel, low-frequency African American-specific locus associated with fasting glucose. Additionally, seven secondary signals were identified, including novel independent secondary signals for fasting glucose at the known GCK locus and for fasting insulin at the known PPP1R3B locus in transethnic meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings provide new insights into the genetic architecture of glycaemic traits and highlight the continued importance of conducting genetic studies in diverse populations. DATA AVAILABILITY: Full summary statistics from each of the population-specific and transethnic results are available at NHGRI-EBI GWAS catalog ( https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/downloads/summary-statistics ).

Vitamin D Supplementation and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies support an association between a low blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, whether vitamin D supplementation lowers the risk of diabetes is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned adults who met at least two of three glycemic criteria for prediabetes (fasting plasma glucose level, 100 to 125 mg per deciliter; plasma glucose level 2 hours after a 75-g oral glucose load, 140 to 199 mg per deciliter; and glycated hemoglobin level, 5.7 to 6.4%) and no diagnostic criteria for diabetes to receive 4000 IU per day of vitamin D3 or placebo, regardless of the baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome in this time-to-event analysis was new-onset diabetes, and the trial design was event-driven, with a target number of diabetes events of 508. RESULTS: A total of 2423 participants underwent randomization (1211 to the vitamin D group and 1212 to the placebo group). By month 24, the mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in the vitamin D group was 54.3 ng per milliliter (from 27.7 ng per milliliter at baseline), as compared with 28.8 ng per milliliter in the placebo group (from 28.2 ng per milliliter at baseline). After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, the primary outcome of diabetes occurred in 293 participants in the vitamin D group and 323 in the placebo group (9.39 and 10.66 events per 100 person-years, respectively). The hazard ratio for vitamin D as compared with placebo was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04; P = 0.12). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons at high risk for type 2 diabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency, vitamin D3 supplementation at a dose of 4000 IU per day did not result in a significantly lower risk of diabetes than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694.).

Missed opportunities in medical therapy for patients with heart failure in an electronically-identified cohort.

BACKGROUND: National registries reveal significant gaps in medical therapy for patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), but may not accurately (or fully) characterize the population eligible for therapy. OBJECTIVE: We developed an automated, electronic health record-based algorithm to identify HFrEF patients eligible for evidence-based therapy, and extracted treatment data to assess gaps in therapy in a large, diverse health system. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study of all NYU Langone Health outpatients with EF ≤ 40% on echocardiogram and an outpatient visit from 3/1/2019 to 2/29/2020, we assessed prescription of the following therapies: beta-blocker (BB), angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA). Our algorithm accounted for contraindications such as medication allergy, bradycardia, hypotension, renal dysfunction, and hyperkalemia. RESULTS: We electronically identified 2732 patients meeting inclusion criteria. Among those eligible for each medication class, 84.8% and 79.7% were appropriately prescribed BB and ACE-I/ARB/ARNI, respectively, while only 23.9% and 22.7% were appropriately prescribed MRA and ARNI, respectively. In adjusted models, younger age, cardiology visit and lower EF were associated with increased prescribing of medications. Private insurance and Medicaid were associated with increased prescribing of ARNI (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.02-2.00; and OR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.07-2.67). CONCLUSIONS: We observed substantial shortfalls in prescribing of MRA and ARNI therapy to ambulatory HFrEF patients. Subspecialty care setting, and Medicaid insurance were associated with higher rates of ARNI prescribing. Further studies are warranted to prospectively evaluate provider- and policy-level interventions to improve prescribing of these evidence-based therapies.

Advancing structured decision-making in drug regulation at the FDA and EMA.

The recent benefit-risk framework (BRF) developed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is intended to improve the clarity and consistency in communicating the reasoning behind the FDA's decisions, acting as an important advancement in US drug regulation. In the PDUFA VI implementation plan, the FDA states that it will continue to explore more structured or quantitative decision analysis approaches; however, it restricts their use within the current BRF that is purely qualitative. By contrast, European regulators and researchers have been long exploring the use of quantitative decision analysis approaches for evaluating drug benefit-risk balance. In this paper, we show how quantitative modelling, backed by decision theory, could complement and extend the FDA's BRF to better support the appraisal of evidence and improve decision outcomes. After providing relevant scientific definitions for benefit-risk assessment and describing the FDA and European Medicines Agency (EMA) frameworks, we explain the components of and differences between qualitative and quantitative approaches. We present lessons learned from the EMA experience with the use of quantitative modelling and we provide evidence of its benefits, illustrated by a real case study that helped to resolve differences of judgements among EMA regulators.

ICER Value Framework 2020 Update: Recommendations on the Aggregation of Benefits and Contextual Considerations.

The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) in the United States recently published a 2020 update to its value assessment framework. We are commenting on the method by which the benefits of health interventions are integrated, relating to contextual considerations and other factors relevant to an intervention's value. We start by discussing the theoretical foundations of decision analysis and its extension to multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Then we provide a detailed, evidence-based response to some of the claims made by ICER with regard to the use of MCDA methods and stakeholder engagement. Finally, we provide a number of recommendations on the use of quantitative decision analysis and decision conferencing that could be of relevance to the ICER methodology. Overall, we agree that some of the proposed changes by ICER are moving in the right direction toward improving transparency in the value assessment process, but these changes are probably inadequate. We advocate that more serious attention should be paid to the use of quantitative decision analysis together with decision conferencing for the construction of value preferences via group processes for the integration of an intervention's various benefit components.

Multimodality imaging: Bird's eye view from the 2019 American College of Cardiology Scientific Sessions.

The 2019 American College of Cardiology Scientific Sessions displayed innovation in many areas for the evaluation and management of cardiovascular disease from preventive evaluation and care to advanced interventions. Imaging played a central role in these developments with a highlight of the conference being the imaging research presented. This review will summarize key imaging studies which were presented at this scientific meeting which will lead to innovation in the evaluation and management of cardiovascular disease. Experts in nuclear imaging (DW/MA), echocardiography (MS), cardiac magnetic resonance (SL), and cardiac computed tomography (RB) selected abstracts which they found to be of particular interest to the multimodality imaging audience and were integrated into this review (LP).

Establishing an electronic health record-supported approach for outreach to and recruitment of persons at high risk of type 2 diabetes in clinical trials: The vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study experience.

AIMS: To establish recruitment approaches that leverage electronic health records in multicenter prediabetes/diabetes clinical trials and compare recruitment outcomes between electronic health record-supported and conventional recruitment methods. METHODS: Observational analysis of recruitment approaches in the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study, a multicenter trial in participants with prediabetes. Outcomes were adoption of electronic health record-supported recruitment approaches by sites, number of participants screened, recruitment performance (proportion screened who were randomized), and characteristics of participants from electronic health record-supported versus non-electronic health record methods. RESULTS: In total, 2423 participants were randomized: 1920 from electronic health record (mean age of 60 years, 41% women, 68% White) and 503 from non-electronic health record sources (mean age of 56.9 years, 58% women, 61% White). Electronic health record-supported recruitment was adopted by 21 of 22 sites. Electronic health record-supported recruitment was associated with more participants screened versus non-electronic health record methods (4969 vs 2166 participants screened), higher performance (38.6% vs 22.7%), and more randomizations (1918 vs 505). Participants recruited via electronic health record were older, included fewer women and minorities, and reported higher use of dietary supplements. Electronic health record-supported recruitment was incorporated in diverse clinical environments, engaging clinicians either at the individual or the healthcare system level. CONCLUSION: Establishing electronic health record-supported recruitment approaches across a multicenter prediabetes/diabetes trial is feasible and can be adopted by diverse clinical environments.

Value of gated-SPECT MPI for ischemia-guided PCI of non-culprit vessels in STEMI patients with multivessel disease after primary PCI.

There remains a clinical question of which patients benefit from revascularization of non-culprit coronary artery stenosis in the setting of acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (STEMI). This is a large population of patients with prior studies showing 40 to 70% of patients with STEMI having non-culprit stenosis. This article reviews the current state of the literature evaluating outcomes of those previously randomized to revascularization of non-culprit stenosis around the time of the STEMI. We propose a new study design to utilize gated-SPECT in the decision process by using an ischemic burden of > 5% as a cut-off for revascularization vs. complete revascularization without ischemia assessment.