Incidence and Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes in Pediatric Patients With COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: Throughout the pandemic, children with COVID-19 have experienced hospitalization, ICU admission, invasive respiratory support, and death. Using a multisite, national dataset, we investigate risk factors associated with these outcomes in children with COVID-19. METHODS: Our data source (Optum deidentified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record Dataset) included children aged 0 to 18 years testing positive for COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and January 20, 2022. Using ordinal logistic regression, we identified factors associated with an ordinal outcome scale: nonhospitalization, hospitalization, or a severe composite outcome (ICU, intensive respiratory support, death). To contrast hospitalization for COVID-19 and incidental positivity on hospitalization, we secondarily identified patient factors associated with hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 165 437 children with COVID-19, 3087 (1.8%) were hospitalized without complication, 2954 (1.8%) experienced ICU admission and/or intensive respiratory support, and 31 (0.02%) died. We grouped patients by age: 0 to 4 years old (35 088), and 5 to 11 years old (75 574), 12 to 18 years old (54 775). Factors positively associated with worse outcomes were preexisting comorbidities and residency in the Southern United States. In 0- to 4-year-old children, there was a nonlinear association between age and worse outcomes, with worse outcomes in 0- to 2-year-old children. In 5- to 18-year-old patients, vaccination was protective. Findings were similar in our secondary analysis of hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19, though region effects were no longer observed. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with COVID-19, preexisting comorbidities and residency in the Southern United States were positively associated with worse outcomes, whereas vaccination was negatively associated. Our study population was highly insured; future studies should evaluate underinsured populations to confirm generalizability.

Is there an association between peri-diagnostic vaccination and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients?

Background: Peri-diagnostic vaccination contemporaneous with SARS-CoV-2 infection might boost antiviral immunity and improve patient outcomes. We investigated, among previously unvaccinated patients, whether vaccination (with the Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J vaccines) during the week before or after a positive COVID-19 test was associated with altered 30-day patient outcomes. Methods: Using a deidentified longitudinal EHR repository, we selected all previously unvaccinated adults who initially tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between December 11, 2020 (the date of vaccine emergency use approval) and December 19, 2021. We assessed whether vaccination between days -7 and +7 of a positive test affected outcomes. The primary measure was progression to a more severe disease outcome within 30 days of diagnosis using the following hierarchy: hospitalization, intensive care, or death. Results: Among 60,031 hospitalized patients, 543 (0.91%) were initially vaccinated at the time of diagnosis and 59,488 (99.09%) remained unvaccinated during the period of interest. Among 316,337 nonhospitalized patients, 2,844 (0.90%) were initially vaccinated and 313,493 (99.1%) remained unvaccinated. In both analyses, individuals receiving vaccines were older, more often located in the northeast, more commonly insured by Medicare, and more burdened by comorbidities. Among previously unvaccinated patients, there was no association between receiving an initial vaccine dose between days -7 and +7 of diagnosis and progression to more severe disease within 30 days compared to patients who did not receive vaccines. Conclusions: Immunization during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection does not appear associated with clinical progression during the acute infectious period.

Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe Outcomes Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Cohort Study.

Background: Studies on COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) have had limitations. Further investigations on risk factors and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection among PWH are needed. Methods: This retrospective cohort study leveraged the national OPTUM COVID-19 data set to investigate factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity among PWH and risk factors for severe outcomes, including hospitalization, intensive care unit stays, and death. A subset analysis was conducted to examine HIV-specific variables. Multiple variable logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates. Results: Of 43 173 PWH included in this study, 6472 had a positive SARS-CoV-2 result based on a polymerase chain reaction test or antigen test. For PWH with SARS-CoV-2 positivity, higher odds were found for those who were younger (18-49 years), Hispanic White, African American, from the US South, uninsured, and a noncurrent smoker and had a higher body mass index and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index. For PWH with severe outcomes, higher odds were identified for those who were SARS-CoV-2 positive, older, from the US South, receiving Medicaid/Medicare or uninsured, a current smoker, and underweight and had a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index. In a subset analysis including PWH with HIV care variables (n = 5098), those with unsuppressed HIV viral load, a low CD4 count, and no antiretroviral therapy had higher odds of severe outcomes. Conclusions: This large US study found significant ethnic, racial, and geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection among PWH. Chronic comorbidities, older age, lower body mass index, and smoking were associated with severe outcomes among PWH during the COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with severe outcomes, but once we adjusted for HIV care variables, SARS-CoV-2 was no longer significant; however, low CD4 count, high viral load, and lack of antiretroviral therapy had higher odds of severe outcomes.

Implementation of Outpatient Infectious Diseases E-Consults at a Safety Net Healthcare System.

Background: Safety net healthcare systems have high patient volumes and significant demands for specialty care including infectious diseases (ID) consultations. Electronic ID consults (E-consults) can lessen this burden by providing an alternative to face-to-face ID referrals and decreasing financial, time, and travel constraints on patients. This system could increase access to ID care for patients in limited-resource settings. Methods: We described characteristics of all outpatient ID E-consults at Parkland Health in Dallas, Texas, from March 2018 to February 2021. We used modeling to determine which characteristics influenced conversion of E-consults to clinic visits and integrated these data into a predictive model for face-to-face conversion. Results: For 725 E-consults, common E-consult topics included 118 (16%) latent tuberculosis, 116 (16%) syphilis, and 76 (10%) gastrointestinal infections. Nearly two-thirds of E-consults (456 [63%]) were requested by primary care providers. The majority (78%) were resolved without a face-to-face ID visit. Osteomyelitis, nontuberculous mycobacterial, and gastrointestinal questions frequently required face-to-face visits at rates of 65%, 49%, and 32%, respectively. Our logistic regression model predicted the need for a face-to-face visit with 80% accuracy and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. Conclusions: An outpatient ID E-consult program at a safety net healthcare system was an effective tool to provide timely input on common ID topics. E-consults were requested by a range of providers, and most were completed without a face-to-face visit. Predictive modeling identified important characteristics of E-consults and predicted conversion to face-to-face visits with reasonable accuracy.

NetworkSIR and EnvironmentalSIR: Effective, Open-Source Epidemic Modeling in the Absence of Data.

The rapidly changing situation characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a need for new epidemic modeling strategies. Due to an absence of computationally efficient models robust to paucity of reliable data, we developed NetworkSIR, a model capable of making predictions when only the approximate population density is known. We then extend NetworkSIR to capture the effect of indirect disease spread on the progression of an epidemic (EnvironmentalSIR).