Two-way pharmacodynamic modeling of drug combinations and its application to pairs of repurposed Ebola and SARS-CoV-2 agents.

Existing pharmacodynamic (PD) mathematical models for drug combinations discriminate antagonistic, additive, multiplicative, and synergistic effects, but fail to consider how concentration-dependent drug interaction effects may vary across an entire dose-response matrix. We developed a two-way pharmacodynamic (TWPD) model to capture the PD of two-drug combinations. TWPD captures interactions between upstream and downstream drugs that act on different stages of viral replication, by quantifying upstream drug efficacy and concentration-dependent effects on downstream drug pharmacodynamic parameters. We applied TWPD to previously published in vitro drug matrixes for repurposed potential anti-Ebola and anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug pairs. Depending on the drug pairing, the model recapitulated combined efficacies as or more accurately than existing models and can be used to infer efficacy at untested drug concentrations. TWPD fits the data slightly better in one direction for all drug pairs, meaning that we can tentatively infer the upstream drug. Based on its high accuracy, TWPD could be used in concert with PK models to estimate the therapeutic effects of drug pairs in vivo.

A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound.

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

A unifying model to explain frequent SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir treatment and limited prophylactic efficacy.

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We develop a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulates viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

Mechanism of enterovirus VP0 maturation cleavage based on the structure of a stabilised assembly intermediate.

Molecular details of genome packaging are little understood for the majority of viruses. In enteroviruses (EVs), cleavage of the structural protein VP0 into VP4 and VP2 is initiated by the incorporation of RNA into the assembling virion and is essential for infectivity. We have applied a combination of bioinformatic, molecular and structural approaches to generate the first high-resolution structure of an intermediate in the assembly pathway, termed a provirion, which contains RNA and intact VP0. We have demonstrated an essential role of VP0 E096 in VP0 cleavage independent of RNA encapsidation and generated a new model of capsid maturation, supported by bioinformatic analysis. This provides a molecular basis for RNA-dependence, where RNA induces conformational changes required for VP0 maturation, but that RNA packaging itself is not sufficient to induce maturation. These data have implications for understanding production of infectious virions and potential relevance for future vaccine and antiviral drug design.