Predictive Utility of Irritability "In Context": Proof-of-Principle for an Early Childhood Mental Health Risk Calculator.

OBJECTIVE: We provide proof-of-principle for a mental health risk calculator advancing clinical utility of the irritability construct for identification of young children at high risk for common, early onsetting syndromes. METHOD: Data were harmonized from two longitudinal early childhood subsamples (total N = 403; 50.1% Male; 66.7% Nonwhite; Mage = 4.3 years). The independent subsamples were clinically enriched via disruptive behavior and violence (Subsample 1) and depression (Subsample 2). In longitudinal models, epidemiologic risk prediction methods for risk calculators were applied to test the utility of the transdiagnostic indicator, early childhood irritability, in the context of other developmental and social-ecological indicators to predict risk of internalizing/externalizing disorders at preadolescence (Mage = 9.9 years). Predictors were retained when they improved model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and integrated discrimination index [IDI]) beyond the base demographic model. RESULTS: Compared to the base model, the addition of early childhood irritability and adverse childhood experiences significantly improved the AUC (0.765) and IDI slope (0.192). Overall, 23% of preschoolers went on to develop a preadolescent internalizing/externalizing disorder. For preschoolers with both elevated irritability and adverse childhood experiences, the likelihood of an internalizing/externalizing disorder was 39-66%. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive analytic tools enable personalized prediction of psychopathological risk for irritable young children, holding transformative potential for clinical translation.

Within-person decline in pregnancy smoking is observable prior to pregnancy awareness: Evidence across two independent observational cohorts.

Decreased consumption of nicotine and other drugs during pregnancy appears to be a cross-species phenomenon from which mechanism(s) capable of interrupting addictive processes could be elucidated. Whether pregnancy influences smoking behaviour independent of women's knowledge of the pregnancy, however, has not been considered. Using repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA), we estimated within-person change in mean cigarettes/day smoked across the estimated date of conception but prior to individually reported dates of pregnancy recognition using longitudinal smoking data from two independent observational cohorts, the Growing Up Healthy (GUH, n = 271) and Midwest Infant Development Studies (MIDS, n = 145). Participants smoked an average of half a pack/day in the month immediately before conception (M (SD) = 12(8.1) and 9.5(6.7) cigarettes/day in GUH and MIDS, respectively). We observed within-person declines in smoking after conception, both before (MGUH  = -0.9; 95% CI -1.6, -0.2; p = 0.01; MMIDS  = -1.1; 95% CI -1.9, -0.3; p = 0.01) and after (MGUH  = -4.8; 95% CI -5.5, -4.1; p < 0.001; MMIDS  = -3.3; 95% CI -4.4, -2.5; p < 0.001) women were aware of having conceived, even when women who had quit and women who were planning to conceive were excluded from analyses. Pregnancy may interrupt smoking-related processes via mechanisms not previously considered. Plausible candidates and directions for future research are discussed.

Association between county-level risk groups and COVID-19 outcomes in the United States: a socioecological study.

BACKGROUND: Geographic heterogeneity in COVID-19 outcomes in the United States is well-documented and has been linked with factors at the county level, including sociodemographic and health factors. Whether an integrated measure of place-based risk can classify counties at high risk for COVID-19 outcomes is not known. METHODS: We conducted an ecological nationwide analysis of 2,701 US counties from 1/21/20 to 2/17/21. County-level characteristics across multiple domains, including demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare access, physical environment, and health factor prevalence were harmonized and linked from a variety of sources. We performed latent class analysis to identify distinct groups of counties based on multiple sociodemographic, health, and environmental domains and examined the association with COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population. RESULTS: Analysis of 25.9 million COVID-19 cases and 481,238 COVID-19 deaths revealed large between-county differences with widespread geographic dispersion, with the gap in cumulative cases and death rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentile of 6,581 and 291 per 100,000, respectively. Counties from rural areas tended to cluster together compared with urban areas and were further stratified by social determinants of health factors that reflected high and low social vulnerability. Highest rates of cumulative COVID-19 cases (9,557 [2,520]) and deaths (210 [97]) per 100,000 occurred in the cluster comprised of rural disadvantaged counties. CONCLUSIONS: County-level COVID-19 cases and deaths had substantial disparities with heterogeneous geographic spread across the US. The approach to county-level risk characterization used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into communicable disease patterns and disparities at the local level.

Childhood Risk Factors and Adulthood Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a comprehensive review of the literature on childhood risk factors and their associations with adulthood subclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). STUDY DESIGN: A systematic search was performed using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases to identify English-language articles published through June 2018. Articles were included if they were longitudinal studies in community-based populations, the primary exposure occurred during childhood, and the primary outcome was either a measure of subclinical CVD or a clinical CVD event occurring in adulthood. Two independent reviewers screened determined whether eligibility criteria were met. RESULTS: There were 210 articles that met the predefined criteria. The greatest number of publications examined associations of clinical risk factors, including childhood adiposity, blood pressure, and cholesterol, with the development of adult CVD. Few studies examined childhood lifestyle factors including diet quality, physical activity, and tobacco exposure. Domains of risk beyond "traditional" cardiovascular risk factors, such as childhood psychosocial adversity, seemed to have strong published associations with the development of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Although the evidence was fairly consistent in direction and magnitude for exposures such as childhood adiposity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, significant gaps remain in the understanding of how childhood health and behaviors translate to the risk of adulthood CVD, particularly in lesser studied exposures like glycemic indicators, physical activity, diet quality, very early life course exposure, and population subgroups.

Neighborhood Poverty and Incident Heart Failure: an Analysis of Electronic Health Records from 2005 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Neighborhood-level characteristics, such as poverty, have been associated with risk factors for heart failure (HF), including hypertension and diabetes mellitus. However, the independent association between neighborhood poverty and incident HF remains understudied. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between neighborhood poverty and incident HF using a "real-world" clinical cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of electronic health records from a large healthcare network. Individuals' residential addresses were geocoded at the census-tract level and categorized by poverty tertiles based on American Community Survey data (2007-2011). PARTICIPANTS: Patients from Northwestern Medicine who were 30-80 years, free of cardiovascular disease at index visit (January 1, 2005-December 1, 2013), and followed for at least 5 years. MAIN MEASURES: The association of neighborhood-level poverty tertile (low, intermediate, and high) and incident HF was analyzed using generalized linear mixed effect models adjusting for demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and HF risk factors (body mass index, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking status). KEY RESULTS: Of 28,858 patients included, 75% were non-Hispanic (NH) White, 43% were men, 15% lived in a high-poverty neighborhood, and 522 (1.8%) were diagnosed with incident HF. High-poverty neighborhoods were associated with a 1.80 (1.35, 2.39) times higher risk of incident HF compared with low-poverty neighborhoods after adjustment for demographics and HF risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In a large healthcare network, incident HF was associated with neighborhood poverty independent of demographic and clinical risk factors. Neighborhood-level interventions may be needed to complement individual-level strategies to prevent and curb the growing burden of HF.

Accounting for selection bias due to death in estimating the effect of wealth shock on cognition for the Health and Retirement Study.

The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal study of U.S. adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive ability of subjects measured using a dataset provided composite score. However, our analysis was complicated by the lack of randomization, time-dependent confounding, and a substantial fraction of the sample and population will die during follow-up leading to some of our outcomes being censored. The common method to handle this type of problem is marginal structural models (MSM). Although MSM produces valid estimates, this may not be the most appropriate method to reflect a useful real-world situation because MSM upweights subjects who are more likely to die to obtain a hypothetical population that over time, resembles that would have been obtained in the absence of death. A more refined and practical framework, principal stratification (PS), would be to restrict analysis to the strata of the population that would survive regardless of negative wealth shock experience. In this work, we propose a new algorithm for the estimation of the treatment effect under PS by imputing the counterfactual survival status and outcomes. Simulation studies suggest that our algorithm works well in various scenarios. We found no evidence that a negative wealth shock experience would affect the cognitive score of HRS subjects.

Racial Differences in the Associations Between Food Insecurity and Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

OBJECTIVE: Food insecurity is associated with consumption of phosphate additive-laden processed food and beverage products, which could result in higher levels of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) to compensate for the increased dietary phosphate load. We sought to determine whether food insecurity is associated with higher levels of FGF23. We stratified analyses by race since differences may occur between food insecurity and diet quality across races. DESIGN AND METHODS: The longitudinal community-based Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study recruited from 4 US centers: Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; and Oakland, CA, during the cohort inception in 1985/1986. This analysis included 3,421 black and white participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults follow-up years 20, 25, and 30 who were enrolled in the study between the ages of 18 and 30 years. Econometric fixed effects models stratified by race that adjust by design for all time-invariant covariates were used to model the longitudinal association of food insecurity, defined as the self-reported ability to afford desired quantity and quality of food. The main outcome of interest was changing to the highest quartile of plasma FGF-23 concentrations. RESULTS: During follow-up, 29% of blacks and 14% of whites experienced change in food security. Developing food insecurity was associated with a 1.48 greater odds of increasing to the highest quartile of FGF23 (95% confidence interval 1.02-2.15) among blacks; however, there was no significant longitudinal association among whites (odds ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.67-1.95). CONCLUSIONS: Among blacks, food insecurity was associated with an increase in levels of FGF23. Although phosphate consumption was presumed to mediate the association between food insecurity and FGF23 levels, we were unable to directly test this pathway.

Association of cardiovascular health through early adulthood and health-related quality of life in middle age: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Previous studies have linked cardiovascular health (CVH) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but only in cross-sectional analyses where temporality cannot be established. The aim of this study was to determine trajectories of CVH from early adulthood to middle age, and examine their association with HRQoL in middle age. This analysis, conducted in 2018, included 3275 participants of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study who completed a year 30 follow-up exam in 2015/2016. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to create CVH trajectories, according to American Heart Association definitions, from baseline through follow-up year 20. HRQoL was assessed by the Medical Outcomes Study 12-Item Short Form Health Survey at year 30, which included the physical component summary score (PCS), the mental component summary score (MCS), and overall self-rated health (SRH). The mean (SD) age of the sample was 55.1 (3.6) years, 1868 (57%) were women, and 1541 (47%) were black. Five CVH trajectories were identified, 31% of CARDIA participants maintained ideal CVH during follow-up. Maintaining ideal CVH was associated with higher PCS and MCS, and lower odds of fair/poor SRH as compared to the other trajectory groups. Compared to the consistently low CVH group, those who maintained ideal CVH had on average a 5.9 point higher PCS (95% CI, 4.2-7.7), a 2.5-point higher MCS (95% CI, 0.5-4.4), and 84% lower odds of fair/poor SRH (95% CI, 0.09, 0.31). Our findings suggest that maintaining ideal CVH from early adulthood results in higher health-related quality of life in middle age.

FGF23 and Nutritional Metabolism.

The discovery of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) has provided a more complete understanding of the regulation of phosphate and mineral homeostasis in health and in chronic kidney disease. It has also offered new insights into stratification of risk of cardiovascular events and death among patients with chronic kidney disease and the general population. In this review, we provide an overview of FGF23 biology and physiology, summarize clinical outcomes that have been associated with FGF23, discuss potential mechanisms for these observations and their public health implications, and explore clinical and population health interventions that aim to reduce FGF23 levels and improve public health.

Longitudinal Associations of Neighborhood-level Racial Residential Segregation with Obesity Among Blacks.

BACKGROUND: Despite 50 years since the passage of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, the majority of black Americans continue to live in highly segregated communities. Differing exposure to obesogenic environments in segregated neighborhoods may contribute to racial disparities in obesity prevalence. METHODS: We used prospective data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study to examine associations between levels of neighborhood-level racial residential segregation and incident obesity in black men and women. Obesity, determined by measured anthropometry, and residential segregation, measured using the local Gi*statistic, were recorded at baseline and follow-up at years 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25. We used marginal structural survival models to account for time-dependent confounding and for loss to follow-up. RESULTS: Black women living in highly segregated neighborhoods at the prior exam were 30% more likely to become obese during the follow-up period as compared with women living in neighborhoods with low levels of segregation after adjustment for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk covariates (hazard ratio = 1.3 [95% confidence interval = 1.0, 1.7]). Cumulatively high exposure to segregation averaged across time points was associated with 50% higher hazard of obesity (hazard ratio = 1.5 [95% confidence interval = 1.0, 2.3]) among women. We observed few differences in obesity incidence among men by segregation levels. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer health-promoting resources, stressful neighborhood context, and social norms that are less stigmatizing of obesity may contribute to these findings, but more research on specific pathways leading from segregation to obesity is needed to understand differing patterns between men and women.

Associations of neighborhood-level racial residential segregation with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses utilizing birth certificate data have shown environmental factors such as racial residential segregation may contribute to disparities in adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, birth certificate data are ill equipped to reliably differentiate among small for gestational age, spontaneous preterm birth, and medically indicated preterm birth. OBJECTIVE: We sought to utilize data from electronic medical records to determine whether residential segregation among Black women is associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: The study population was composed of 4770 non-Hispanic Black women who delivered during the years 2009 through 2013 at a single urban medical center. Addresses were geocoded at the level of census tract, and this tract was used to determine the degree of residential segregation for an individual's neighborhood. Residential segregation was measured using the Gi* statistic, a z-score that measures the extent to which the neighborhood racial composition deviates from the composition of the larger surrounding area. The Gi* statistic z-scores were categorized as follows: low (z < 0), medium (z = 0-1.96), and high (z > 1.96). Adverse pregnancy outcomes included overall preterm birth, spontaneous preterm birth, medically indicated preterm birth, and small for gestational age. Hierarchical logistic regression models accounting for clustering by census tract and repeated births among mothers were used to estimate odds ratios of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with segregation. RESULTS: In high segregation areas, the prevalence of overall preterm birth was significantly higher than that in low segregation areas (15.5% vs 10.7%, respectively; P < .001). Likewise, the prevalence of spontaneous preterm birth and medically indicated preterm birth were higher in high (9.5% and 6.0%) vs low (6.2% and 4.6%) segregation neighborhoods (P < .001 and P = .046, respectively). The associations of high segregation with overall preterm birth (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.69) and spontaneous preterm birth (odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.85) remained significant with adjustment for neighborhood poverty, insurance status, parity, and maternal medical conditions. CONCLUSION: Among non-Hispanic Black women in an urban area, high levels of segregation were independently associated with the higher odds of spontaneous preterm birth. These findings highlight one aspect of social determinants (ie, segregation) through which adverse pregnancy outcomes may be influenced and points to a potential target for intervention.

Association of a Negative Wealth Shock With All-Cause Mortality in Middle-aged and Older Adults in the United States.

Importance: A sudden loss of wealth-a negative wealth shock-may lead to a significant mental health toll and also leave fewer monetary resources for health-related expenses. With limited years remaining to regain lost wealth in older age, the health consequences of these negative wealth shocks may be long-lasting. Objective: To determine whether a negative wealth shock was associated with all-cause mortality during 20 years of follow-up. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative prospective cohort study of US adults aged 51 through 61 years at study entry. The study population included 8714 adults, first assessed for a negative wealth shock in 1994 and followed biennially through 2014 (the most recent year of available data). Exposures: Experiencing a negative wealth shock, defined as a loss of 75% or more of total net worth over a 2-year period, or asset poverty, defined as 0 or negative total net worth at study entry. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality data were collected from the National Death Index and postmortem interviews with family members. Marginal structural survival methods were used to account for the potential bias due to changes in health status that may both trigger negative wealth shocks and act as the mechanism through which negative wealth shocks lead to increased mortality. Results: There were 8714 participants in the study sample (mean [SD] age at study entry, 55 [3.2] years; 53% women), 2430 experienced a negative wealth shock during follow-up, 749 had asset poverty at baseline, and 5535 had continuously positive wealth without shock. A total of 2823 deaths occurred during 80 683 person-years of follow-up. There were 30.6 vs 64.9 deaths per 1000 person-years for those with continuously positive wealth vs negative wealth shock (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.36-1.67). There were 73.4 deaths per 1000 person-years for those with asset poverty at baseline (adjusted HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.44-1.94; compared with continuously positive wealth). Conclusions and Relevance: Among US adults aged 51 years and older, loss of wealth over 2 years was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Further research is needed to better understand the possible mechanisms for this association and determine whether there is potential value for targeted interventions.

Size and characteristics of the biomedical research workforce associated with U.S. National Institutes of Health extramural grants.

The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) annually invests approximately $22 billion in biomedical research through its extramural grant programs. Since fiscal year (FY) 2010, all persons involved in research during the previous project year have been required to be listed on the annual grant progress report. These new data have enabled the production of the first-ever census of the NIH-funded extramural research workforce. Data were extracted from All Personnel Reports submitted for NIH grants funded in FY 2009, including position title, months of effort, academic degrees obtained, and personal identifiers. Data were de-duplicated to determine a unique person count. Person-years of effort (PYE) on NIH grants were computed. In FY 2009, NIH funded 50,885 grant projects, which created 313,049 full- and part-time positions spanning all job functions involved in biomedical research. These positions were staffed by 247,457 people at 2,604 institutions. These persons devoted 121,465 PYE to NIH grant-supported research. Research project grants each supported 6 full- or part-time positions, on average. Over 20% of positions were occupied by postdoctoral researchers and graduate and undergraduate students. These baseline data were used to project workforce estimates for FYs 2010-2014 and will serve as a foundation for future research.

Incorporating longitudinal history of risk factors into atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk prediction using deep learning.

It is increasingly clear that longitudinal risk factor levels and trajectories are related to risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) above and beyond single measures. Currently used in clinical care, the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are based on regression methods that predict ASCVD risk based on cross-sectional risk factor levels. Deep learning (DL) models have been developed to incorporate longitudinal data for risk prediction but its benefit for ASCVD risk prediction relative to the traditional Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) remain unknown. Our study included 15,565 participants from four cardiovascular disease cohorts free of baseline ASCVD who were followed for adjudicated ASCVD. Ten-year ASCVD risk was calculated in the training set using our benchmark, the PCE, and a longitudinal DL model, Dynamic-DeepHit. Predictors included those incorporated in the PCE: sex, race, age, total cholesterol, high density lipid cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension treatment and smoking. The discrimination and calibration performance of the two models were evaluated in an overall hold-out testing dataset. Of the 15,565 participants in our dataset, 2170 (13.9%) developed ASCVD. The performance of the longitudinal DL model that incorporated 8 years of longitudinal risk factor data improved upon that of the PCE [AUROC: 0.815 (CI 0.782-0.844) vs 0.792 (CI 0.760-0.825)] and the net reclassification index was 0.385. The brier score for the DL model was 0.0514 compared with 0.0542 in the PCE. Incorporating longitudinal risk factors in ASCVD risk prediction using DL can improve model discrimination and calibration.

A Proposed Pediatric Clinical Cardiovascular Health Reference Standard.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical cardiovascular health is a construct that includes 4 health factors-systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, and body mass index-which together provide an evidence-based, more holistic view of cardiovascular health risk in adults than each component separately. Currently, no pediatric version of this construct exists. This study sought to develop sex-specific charts of clinical cardiovascular health for age to describe current patterns of clinical cardiovascular health throughout childhood. METHODS: Data were used from children and adolescents aged 8-19 years in six pooled childhood cohorts (19,261 participants, collected between 1972 and 2010) to create reference standards for fasting glucose and total cholesterol. Using the models for glucose and cholesterol as well as previously published reference standards for body mass index and blood pressure, clinical cardiovascular health charts were developed. All models were estimated using sex-specific random-effects linear regression, and modeling was performed during 2020-2022. RESULTS: Models were created to generate charts with smoothed means, percentiles, and standard deviations of clinical cardiovascular health for each year of childhood. For example, a 10-year-old girl with a body mass index of 16 kg/m2 (30th percentile), blood pressure of 100/60 mm Hg (46th/50th), glucose of 80 mg/dL (31st), and total cholesterol of 160 mg/dL (46th) (lower implies better) would have a clinical cardiovascular health percentile of 62 (higher implies better). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical cardiovascular health charts based on pediatric data offer a standardized approach to express clinical cardiovascular health as an age- and sex-standardized percentile for clinicians to assess cardiovascular health in childhood to consider preventive approaches at early ages and proactively optimize lifetime trajectories of cardiovascular health.

Cardiac Structure and Function Phenogroups and Risk of Incident Heart Failure (from the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

Indices of cardiac structure and function, such as left ventricular (LV) mass and ejection fraction, have been associated with risk of incident heart failure (HF), but the clinical relevance of data-driven grouping of a comprehensive set of cardiac parameters is unclear. In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants, latent class analysis was applied in the sample stratified by gender to define phenogroups on the basis of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging parameters of right ventricular and LV structure and function at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models in gender-stratified analyses were used to assess the association between phenogroup membership and risk of HF subtypes adjusting for potential confounders. In the 4,204 participants (mean age 61 ± 10 years, 53% women), the mean follow-up time was 14 ± 4 years for men and 15 ± 4 years for women. For both genders, 4 distinct phenogroups were identified: (1) ideal cardiac mechanics; (2) higher output/hypertrophied LV; (3) impaired ejection fraction/dilated LV; and (4) higher output/hyperdynamic (LV). Men in phenogroups 4 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60 to 5.31, p = 0.0005), 3 (HR 3.52, 95% CI 1.90 to 6.53, p <0.0001), and 2 (HR 3.49, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.28, p <0.0001) had higher rates of incident HF than did men in phenogroup 1, in fully adjusted models. No significant associations were found between phenogroup membership and incident HF in women. In conclusion, phenogroup membership based on cardiac structure and function in men was significantly associated with incident HF. Integration of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables may help identify differential risk for HF in men.

Race- and Sex-Specific Factors Associated With Age-Related Slopes in Systolic Blood Pressure: Findings From the CARDIA Study.

BACKGROUND: Although blood pressure (BP) increases throughout young adulthood for most individuals, the age-related slope is not uniform. This study aimed to assess associations of demographic, clinical, behavioral, psychosocial, and neighborhood characteristics with age-related BP slope among 4 race-sex groups who participated in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study. METHODS: Individuals (n=3554) aged 18 to 30 years were included in this analysis if they had normal BP at baseline and ≥2 BP measurements during the years 1985/1986 to 2015/2016. Associations of exposure variables with systolic BP slope were assessed using multivariate linear models. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of ~30 years, greater decade increases in systolic BP were estimated among Black than White participants (mean difference between Black females and White females: 3.0 mm Hg/decade; between Black males and White males: 4.7 mm Hg/decade). The exposure risk factors associated with greater increases in systolic BP throughout adulthood varied by race and sex. None of these factors were associated with increases in systolic BP in all race-sex groups. Parent history of high BP was associated with a steeper positive slope among Black females (effect size per decade: 1.1 [95% CI, 0.6-1.6]; P<0.01), Black males (0.6 [95% CI, 0.02-1.2]; P<0.05), and White females (0.6 [95% CI, 0.2-1.0]; P<0.01). Other risk factors were associated with greater age-related yearly increases in systolic BP among 1 or 2 of the 4 race-sex groups or were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Culturally tailored BP reduction approach should be considered in conjunction with primordial prevention, to moderate increases in BP throughout adulthood.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Hypertension Guideline and Blood Pressure in Older Adults.

INTRODUCTION: The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline redefined hypertension and lowered the blood pressure treatment target. Empirical data on the guideline's impact are needed. METHODS: Data were analyzed from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants who attended baseline pre-guideline (2016-2017) and post-guideline (2018-2019) visits with baseline systolic blood pressure between 120 and 159 mmHg. Participants were grouped according to baseline systolic blood pressure by change in classification under the new guideline as follows: not reclassified (120-129 mmHg), reclassified to Stage 1 hypertension (130-139 mmHg), and reclassified to Stage 2 hypertension (140-159 mmHg). Means and 95% CIs for systolic blood pressure changes between baseline and follow-up, changes in antihypertensive use, and percentages that achieved the post-guideline recommendation (systolic blood pressure <130 mmHg) were calculated. Analyses were performed in 2021-2022. RESULTS: Among 2,193 community-dwelling Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities participants aged 71-95 years at baseline, systolic blood pressure changes between baseline and follow-up visits differed among participants not reclassified (+4.1 mmHg, 95% CI=3.0, 5.3 mmHg), reclassified to Stage 1 hypertension (-1.1 mmHg, 95% CI= -2.2, 0.1 mmHg), and reclassified to Stage 2 hypertension (-5.7 mmHg, 95% CI= -6.8, -4.7 mmHg). Antihypertensive use changed from 77.3% to 78.4% (p=0.25) among participants reclassified to Stage 1 hypertension and from 78.3% to 81.4% (p<0.01) among participants reclassified to Stage 2 hypertension. At follow-up, 41.8% of the Stage 1 and 22.4% of the Stage 2 hypertension groups reached the systolic blood pressure <130 mmHg goal. CONCLUSIONS: There were small decreases in systolic blood pressure and increases in antihypertensive therapy among older adults reclassified to Stage 2 hypertension but not among those reclassified to Stage 1 hypertension by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.