Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines in Ambulatory and Inpatient Care Settings.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the effectiveness of the vaccines against symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) currently authorized in the United States with respect to hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), or ambulatory care in an emergency department or urgent care clinic. METHODS: We conducted a study involving adults (≥50 years of age) with Covid-19-like illness who underwent molecular testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We assessed 41,552 admissions to 187 hospitals and 21,522 visits to 221 emergency departments or urgent care clinics during the period from January 1 through June 22, 2021, in multiple states. The patients' vaccination status was documented in electronic health records and immunization registries. We used a test-negative design to estimate vaccine effectiveness by comparing the odds of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccinated patients with those among unvaccinated patients. Vaccine effectiveness was adjusted with weights based on propensity-for-vaccination scores and according to age, geographic region, calendar time (days from January 1, 2021, to the index date for each medical visit), and local virus circulation. RESULTS: The effectiveness of full messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination (≥14 days after the second dose) was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87 to 91) against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to hospitalization, 90% (95% CI, 86 to 93) against infection leading to an ICU admission, and 91% (95% CI, 89 to 93) against infection leading to an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit. The effectiveness of full vaccination with respect to a Covid-19-associated hospitalization or emergency department or urgent care clinic visit was similar with the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines and ranged from 81% to 95% among adults 85 years of age or older, persons with chronic medical conditions, and Black or Hispanic adults. The effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was 68% (95% CI, 50 to 79) against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to hospitalization and 73% (95% CI, 59 to 82) against infection leading to an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit. CONCLUSIONS: Covid-19 vaccines in the United States were highly effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring hospitalization, ICU admission, or an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit. This vaccine effectiveness extended to populations that are disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Comparisons in the Health and Economic Assessments of Using Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review.

OBJECTIVES: Seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 (trivalent influenza vaccine [IIV3]) or 4 (quadrivalent influenza vaccine [IIV4]) viruses. IIV4 costs more than IIV3, and there is a trade-off between incremental cost and protection. This is especially the case in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited budgets; previous reviews have not identified studies of IIV4-IIV3 comparisons in LMICs. We summarized the literature that compared health and economic outcomes of IIV4 and IIV3, focused on LMICs. METHODS: We systematically searched 5 databases for articles published before October 6, 2021, that modeled health or economic effects of IIV4 versus IIV3. We abstracted data and compared findings among countries and models. RESULTS: Thirty-eight studies fit our selection criteria; 10 included LMICs. Most studies (N = 31) reported that IIV4 was cost-saving or cost-effective compared with IIV3; we observed no difference in health or economic outcomes between LMICs and other countries. Based on cost differences of influenza vaccines, only one study compared coverage of IIV3 with IIV4 and reported that the maximum IIV4 price that would still yield greater public health impact than IIV3 was 13% to 22% higher than IIV3. CONCLUSIONS: When vaccination coverage with IIV4 and IIV3 is the same, IIV4 tends to be not only more effective but more cost-effective than IIV3, even with relatively high price differences between vaccine types. Alternatively, where funding is limited as in most LMICs, higher vaccine coverage can be achieved with IIV3 than IIV4, which could result in more favorable health and economic outcomes.

Global burden of influenza-associated lower respiratory tract infections and hospitalizations among adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Influenza illness burden is substantial, particularly among young children, older adults, and those with underlying conditions. Initiatives are underway to develop better global estimates for influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the role of influenza viruses in severe respiratory disease and hospitalizations among adults, particularly in lower-income settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We aggregated published data from a systematic review and unpublished data from surveillance platforms to generate global meta-analytic estimates for the proportion of acute respiratory hospitalizations associated with influenza viruses among adults. We searched 9 online databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Global Health, LILACS, WHOLIS, and CNKI; 1 January 1996-31 December 2016) to identify observational studies of influenza-associated hospitalizations in adults, and assessed eligible papers for bias using a simplified Newcastle-Ottawa scale for observational data. We applied meta-analytic proportions to global estimates of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and hospitalizations from the Global Burden of Disease study in adults ≥20 years and by age groups (20-64 years and ≥65 years) to obtain the number of influenza-associated LRI episodes and hospitalizations for 2016. Data from 63 sources showed that influenza was associated with 14.1% (95% CI 12.1%-16.5%) of acute respiratory hospitalizations among all adults, with no significant differences by age group. The 63 data sources represent published observational studies (n = 28) and unpublished surveillance data (n = 35), from all World Health Organization regions (Africa, n = 8; Americas, n = 11; Eastern Mediterranean, n = 7; Europe, n = 8; Southeast Asia, n = 11; Western Pacific, n = 18). Data quality for published data sources was predominantly moderate or high (75%, n = 56/75). We estimate 32,126,000 (95% CI 20,484,000-46,129,000) influenza-associated LRI episodes and 5,678,000 (95% CI 3,205,000-9,432,000) LRI hospitalizations occur each year among adults. While adults <65 years contribute most influenza-associated LRI hospitalizations and episodes (3,464,000 [95% CI 1,885,000-5,978,000] LRI hospitalizations and 31,087,000 [95% CI 19,987,000-44,444,000] LRI episodes), hospitalization rates were highest in those ≥65 years (437/100,000 person-years [95% CI 265-612/100,000 person-years]). For this analysis, published articles were limited in their inclusion of stratified testing data by year and age group. Lack of information regarding influenza vaccination of the study population was also a limitation across both types of data sources. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we estimated that influenza viruses are associated with over 5 million hospitalizations worldwide per year. Inclusion of both published and unpublished findings allowed for increased power to generate stratified estimates, and improved representation from lower-income countries. Together, the available data demonstrate the importance of influenza viruses as a cause of severe disease and hospitalizations in younger and older adults worldwide.

Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Among Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19-Like Illness with Infection-Induced or mRNA Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Immunity - Nine States, January-September 2021.

Previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) or COVID-19 vaccination can provide immunity and protection from subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and illness. CDC used data from the VISION Network* to examine hospitalizations in adults with COVID-19-like illness and compared the odds of receiving a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, and thus having laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, between unvaccinated patients with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection occurring 90-179 days before COVID-19-like illness hospitalization, and patients who were fully vaccinated with an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine 90-179 days before hospitalization with no previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hospitalized adults aged ≥18 years with COVID-19-like illness were included if they had received testing at least twice: once associated with a COVID-19-like illness hospitalization during January-September 2021 and at least once earlier (since February 1, 2020, and ≥14 days before that hospitalization). Among COVID-19-like illness hospitalizations in persons whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90-179 days earlier, the odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (adjusted for sociodemographic and health characteristics) among unvaccinated, previously infected adults were higher than the odds among fully vaccinated recipients of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine with no previous documented infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.49; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.75-10.99). These findings suggest that among hospitalized adults with COVID-19-like illness whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90-179 days earlier, vaccine-induced immunity was more protective than infection-induced immunity against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. All eligible persons should be vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as possible, including unvaccinated persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness of 2-Dose Vaccination with mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Among Immunocompromised Adults - Nine States, January-September 2021.

Immunocompromised persons, defined as those with suppressed humoral or cellular immunity resulting from health conditions or medications, account for approximately 3% of the U.S. adult population (1). Immunocompromised adults are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes (2) and might not acquire the same level of protection from COVID-19 mRNA vaccines as do immunocompetent adults (3,4). To evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) among immunocompromised adults, data from the VISION Network* on hospitalizations among persons aged ≥18 years with COVID-19-like illness from 187 hospitals in nine states during January 17-September 5, 2021 were analyzed. Using selected discharge diagnoses,† VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalization conferred by completing a 2-dose series of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine ≥14 days before the index hospitalization date§ (i.e., being fully vaccinated) was evaluated using a test-negative design comparing 20,101 immunocompromised adults (10,564 [53%] of whom were fully vaccinated) and 69,116 immunocompetent adults (29,456 [43%] of whom were fully vaccinated). VE of 2 doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was lower among immunocompromised patients (77%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 74%-80%) than among immunocompetent patients (90%; 95% CI = 89%-91%). This difference persisted irrespective of mRNA vaccine product, age group, and timing of hospitalization relative to SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant predominance in the state of hospitalization. VE varied across immunocompromising condition subgroups, ranging from 59% (organ or stem cell transplant recipients) to 81% (persons with a rheumatologic or inflammatory disorder). Immunocompromised persons benefit from mRNA COVID-19 vaccination but are less protected from severe COVID-19 outcomes than are immunocompetent persons, and VE varies among immunocompromised subgroups. Immunocompromised persons receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should receive 3 doses and a booster, consistent with CDC recommendations (5), practice nonpharmaceutical interventions, and, if infected, be monitored closely and considered early for proven therapies that can prevent severe outcomes.

Cascading failures in COVID-19 vaccine equity.

Ethical analysis should encompass upstream decisions and their downstream consequences.

Accuracy of COVID-19-Like Illness Diagnoses in Electronic Health Record Data: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health record (EHR) data provide a unique opportunity to study the epidemiology of COVID-19, clinical outcomes of the infection, comparative effectiveness of therapies, and vaccine effectiveness but require a well-defined computable phenotype of COVID-19-like illness (CLI). OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of pathogen-specific and other acute respiratory illness (ARI) International Statistical Classification of Diseases-9 and -10 codes in identifying COVID-19 cases in emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) and inpatient settings. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using EHR, claims, and laboratory information system data of ED or UC and inpatient encounters from 4 health systems in the United States. Patients who were aged ≥18 years, had an ED or UC or inpatient encounter for an ARI, and underwent a SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test between March 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021, were included. We evaluated various CLI definitions using combinations of International Statistical Classification of Diseases-10 codes as follows: COVID-19-specific codes; CLI definition used in VISION network studies; ARI signs, symptoms, and diagnosis codes only; signs and symptoms of ARI only; and random forest model definitions. We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of each CLI definition using a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test as the reference standard. We evaluated the performance of each CLI definition for distinct hospitalization and ED or UC cohorts. RESULTS: Among 90,952 hospitalizations and 137,067 ED or UC visits, 5627 (6.19%) and 9866 (7.20%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, respectively. COVID-19-specific codes had high sensitivity (91.6%) and specificity (99.6%) in identifying patients with SARS-CoV-2 positivity among hospitalized patients. The VISION CLI definition maintained high sensitivity (95.8%) but lowered specificity (45.5%). By contrast, signs and symptoms of ARI had low sensitivity and positive predictive value (28.9% and 11.8%, respectively) but higher specificity and negative predictive value (85.3% and 94.7%, respectively). ARI diagnoses, signs, and symptoms alone had low predictive performance. All CLI definitions had lower sensitivity for ED or UC encounters. Random forest approaches identified distinct CLI definitions with high performance for hospital encounters and moderate performance for ED or UC encounters. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19-specific codes have high sensitivity and specificity in identifying adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results. Separate combinations of COVID-19-specific codes and ARI codes enhance the utility of CLI definitions in studies using EHR data in hospital and ED or UC settings.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Hospitalized Infants in Four Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Understanding respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) global epidemiology is important to inform future prevention strategies. METHODS: Hospitalized infants <1-year-old with acute illness were enrolled prospectively in Albania, Jordan, Nicaragua, and Philippines during respiratory seasons in 2015-2017. Medical chart review, parental interview, and post-discharge follow up were conducted. Respiratory specimens were tested using real-time RT-PCR for RSV. Infant characteristics associated with very severe illness (intensive care unit [ICU] admission or receipt of supplemental oxygen) were assessed using logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders (age, sex, study site, and preterm birth). RESULTS: Of 3634 enrolled hospitalized infants, 1129 (31%) tested positive for RSV. The median age of RSV-positive infants was 2.7 (IQR: 1.4-6.1) months and 665 (59%) were male. Very severe illness in 583 (52%) RSV-positive infants was associated with younger age (aOR 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.5 for 0-2 compared to 9-11-months; P < .01), low weight-for-age z-score (aOR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2-2.8; P < .01), ICU care after birth (aOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0-2.5; P = .048), and cesarean delivery (aOR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8; P = .03). RSV subgroups A and B co-circulated at all sites with alternating predominance by year; subgroup was not associated with severity (aOR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.8-1.4). Nine (0.8%) RSV-positive infants died during admission or within ≤30 days of discharge, of which 7 (78%) were <6-months-old. CONCLUSIONS: RSV was associated with nearly a third of infant acute illness hospitalizations in four middle-income countries during the respiratory season, where, in addition to young age, factors including low weight-for-age might be important predictors of severity. RSV prevention strategies targeting young infants could substantially reduce RSV-associated hospitalizations in middle-income countries.

Estimating the number of averted illnesses and deaths as a result of vaccination against an influenza pandemic in nine low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, 77 countries received donated monovalent A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine through the WHO Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Vaccine Deployment Initiative. However, 47% did not receive their first shipment until after the first wave of virus circulation, and 8% did not receive their first shipment until after the WHO declared the end of the pandemic. Arguably, these shipments were too late into the pandemic to have a substantial effect on virus transmission or disease burden during the first waves of the pandemic. OBJECTIVES: In order to evaluate the potential benefits of earlier vaccine availability, we estimated the number of illnesses and deaths that could be averted during a 2009-like influenza pandemic under five different vaccine-availability timing scenarios. METHODS: We adapted a model originally developed to estimate annual influenza morbidity and mortality burden averted through US seasonal vaccination and ran it for five vaccine availability timing scenarios in nine low- and middle-income countries that received donated vaccine. RESULTS: Among nine study countries, we estimated that the number of averted cases was 61-216,197 for actual vaccine receipt, increasing to 2,914-283,916 had vaccine been available simultaneously with the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier delivery of vaccines can reduce influenza case counts during a simulated 2009-like pandemic in some low- and middle-income countries. For others, increasing the number of cases and deaths prevented through vaccination may be dependent on factors other than timely initiation of vaccine administration, such as distribution and administration capacity.

Ancillary benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination in middle-income countries.

While seasonal influenza vaccines (SIV) remain the best method to prevent influenza-associated illnesses, implementing SIV programs may benefit countries beyond disease reduction, strengthening health systems and national immunization programs, or conversely, introduce new challenges. Few studies have examined perceived impacts of SIV introduction beyond disease reduction on health systems; understanding such impacts will be particularly salient in the context of COVID-19 vaccine introduction. We collected qualitative data from key informants-Partnership for Influenza Vaccine Introduction (PIVI) contacts in six middle-income PIVI vaccine recipient countries-to understand perceptions of ancillary benefits and challenges from SIV implementation. Respondents reported benefits associated with SIV introduction, including improved attitudes to SIV among risk groups (characterized by increased demand) and perceptions that SIV introduction improved relationships with other ministries and collaboration with mass media. Challenges included sustaining investment in SIV programs, as vaccine supply did not always meet coverage goals, and managing SIV campaigns.

Association of cognitive biases with human papillomavirus vaccine hesitancy: a cross-sectional study.

Given the link between vaccine hesitancy and vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks, it is critical to examine the cognitive processes that contribute to the development of vaccine hesitancy, especially among parents of adolescents. We conducted a secondary analysis of baseline data from a two-phase randomized trial on human papillomavirus to investigate how vaccine hesitancy and intent to vaccinate are associated with six decision-making factors: base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, sunk cost bias, present bias, risk aversion, and information avoidance. We recruited 1,413 adults residing in the United States with at least one daughter aged 9-17 years old through an online survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Vaccine hesitancy, intent to vaccinate, and susceptibility to cognitive biases was measured through a series of brief questionnaires. 1,400 participants were in the final analyzed sample. Most participants were white (74.1%), female (71.6%), married (75.3%), and had a college or graduate/professional education (88.8%). Conjunction fallacy, sunk cost bias, information avoidance, and present bias may be associated with vaccine hesitancy. Intent to vaccinate may be associated with information avoidance. These results suggest that cognitive biases play a role in developing parental vaccine hesitancy and vaccine-related behavior.

Does having a seasonal influenza program facilitate pandemic preparedness? An analysis of vaccine deployment during the 2009 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: National seasonal influenza programs have been recommended as a foundation for pandemic preparedness. During the 2009 pandemic, WHO aimed to increase Member States' equitable access to influenza vaccines through pandemic vaccine donation. METHODS: This analysis explores whether the presence of a seasonal influenza program contributed to more rapid national submission of requirements to receive vaccine during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Data from 2009 influenza vaccine donation, deployment, and surveillance initiatives were collected during May-September 2018 from WHO archival material. Data about the presence of seasonal influenza vaccine programs prior to 2009 were gathered from the WHO-UNICEF Joint Reporting Form. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relationship between presence of a seasonal influenza program and time to submission of a national deployment and vaccination plan and to vaccine delivery. FINDING: Of 97 countries eligible to receive WHO-donated vaccine, 83 (86%) submitted national deployment and vaccination plans and 77 (79%) received vaccine. Countries with a seasonal influenza vaccine program were more likely to submit a national deployment and vaccination plan (hazards ratio [HR] 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]. Countries with regulatory delays were less likely to receive vaccine than those without these delays (HR 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.6). INTERPRETATION: During the 2009 pandemic, eligible countries with a seasonal influenza vaccine program weremore ready to receive and use donated vaccines than those without a program. Our findings suggest that robust seasonal influenza vaccine programs increase national familiarity with the management of influenza vaccines and therefore enhance pandemic preparedness. FUNDING: N/A.

Intent to obtain pediatric influenza vaccine among mothers in four middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Despite a large burden of influenza in middle income countries, pediatric vaccination coverage remains low. The aims of this study were to (1) describe mothers' knowledge and attitudes about influenza illnesses and vaccination, and (2) identify characteristics associated with mothers' intent to vaccinate their child. METHODS: From 2015 to 2017, infants 0-11 months old in Nicaragua, Philippines, Jordan, and Albania were enrolled from community settings and hospitals. Interviewers administered a questionnaire to their mothers. Mothers of infants aged 6-11 months rated their intention (small-to-moderate vs. large chance) to accept pediatric vaccination if it was offered at no-cost. The importance of knowledge, attitudes, and sociodemographic characteristics in predicting influenza vaccination intention was measured as the mean decrease in Gini index when that factor was excluded from 1000 decision trees in a random forest analysis. RESULTS: In total, 1,308 mothers were enrolled from the community setting and 3,286 from the hospital setting. Prevalence of at least some knowledge of influenza illness ranged from 34% in Philippines to 88% in Albania (in the community sample), and between 23% in Philippines to 88% in Jordan (in the hospital sample). In the community sample, most mothers in Albania (69%) and Philippines (58%) would accept the influenza vaccine, and these proportions were higher in the hospital sample for all countries except Albania (48%) (P < 0.0001). Perceived vaccine safety (mean decrease in Gini index = 61) and effectiveness (55), and perceived knowledge of influenza vaccine (45) were the most important predictors of influenza vaccination intention in models that also included country and community versus hospital sample. CONCLUSION: Intent to vaccinate infants aged 6-11 months in four middle income countries was tied primarily to knowledge of the vaccine and perceptions of vaccine safety and effectiveness. These findings were noted among mothers interviewed in the community and mothers of recently hospitalized infants.

The partnership for influenza vaccine introduction (PIVI): Supporting influenza vaccine program development in low and middle-income countries through public-private partnerships.

Influenza vaccination remains the most effective tool for reducing seasonal influenza disease burden. Few Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have robust, sustainable annual influenza national vaccination programs. The Partnership for Influenza Vaccine Introduction (PIVI) was developed as a public-private partnership to support LMICs to develop and sustain national vaccination programs through time-limited vaccine donations and technical support. We review the first 5 years of experience with PIVI, including the concept, country progress toward sustainability, and lesson learned. Between 2013 and 2018, PIVI worked with Ministries of Health in 17 countries. Eight countries have received donated vaccines and technical support; of these, two have transitioned to sustained national support of influenza vaccination and six are increasing national support of the vaccine programs towards full transition to local vaccine program support by 2023. Nine additional countries have received technical support for building the evidence base for national policy development and/or program evaluation. PIVI has resulted in increased use of vaccines in partner countries, and early countries have demonstrated progress towards sustainability, suggesting that a model of vaccine and technical support can work in LMICs. PIVI expects to add new country partners as current countries transition to self-reliance.

Underdetection of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospital admissions among infants: a multicentre, prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Since influenza often presents non-specifically in infancy, we aimed to assess the extent to which existing respiratory surveillance platforms might underestimate the frequency of severe influenza disease among infants. METHODS: The Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Infants (IRIS) study was a prospective observational study done at four hospitals in Albania, Jordan, Nicaragua, and the Philippines. We included acutely ill infants aged younger than 1 year admitted to hospital within 10 days or less of illness onset during two influenza seasons (2015-16 and 2016-17) in Albania, Jordan, and Nicaragua, and over a continuous 34 week period (2015-16) in the Philippines. We assessed the frequency of influenza virus infections by real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) and serology. The main study outcome was seroconversion, defined as convalescent antibody titres more than or equal to four-fold higher than acute sera antibody titres, and convalescent antibody titres of 40 or higher. Seroconverison was confirmed by haemagglutination inhibition assay for influenza A viruses, and by hemagglutination inhibition assay and microneutralisation for influenza B viruses. FINDINGS: Between June 27, 2015, and April 21, 2017, 3634 acutely ill infants were enrolled, of whom 1943 were enrolled during influenza seasons and had complete acute-convalescent pairs and thus were included in the final analytical sample. Of the 1943 infants, 94 (5%) were influenza-positive by both rRT-PCR and serology, 58 (3%) were positive by rRT-PCR-only, and 102 (5%) were positive by serology only. Seroconversion to at least one of the influenza A or B viruses was observed among 196 (77%) of 254 influenza-positive infants. Of the 254 infants with influenza virus, 84 (33%) only had non-respiratory clinical discharge diagnoses (eg, sepsis, febrile seizures, dehydration, or other non-respiratory viral illness). A focus on respiratory diagnoses and rRT-PCR-confirmed influenza underdetects influenza-associated hospital admissions among infants by a factor of 2·6 (95% CI 2·0-3·6). Findings were unchanged when syndromic severe acute respiratory infection criteria were applied instead of clinical diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: If the true incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospital admissions among infants is at least twice that of previous estimates, this substantially increases the global burden of severe influenza and expands our estimates of the preventive value of maternal and infant influenza vaccination programmes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Cancer-salient messaging for Human Papillomavirus vaccine uptake: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Vaccination with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is recommended for 11-12 years-old, but uptake is suboptimal. Current messaging focuses on HPV infection transmission and prevention. Parents and providers are often uncomfortable discussing sexual practices of adolescents, contributing to the delay/refusal of vaccine. We created a cervical cancer-salient message encouraging HPV vaccination, emphasizing disease salience and disease threat, while promoting self-efficacy. We hypothesized this message would have greater effects on vaccine confidence and intent to vaccinate compared to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and non-vaccine control messages. METHODS: A 3-arm randomized trial was conducted. Parents of girls aged 9-17 were eligible for the study. We measured participants' vaccine confidence and intent to vaccinate at baseline and post intervention message. Recruitment and surveys were administered online through Amazon Mechanical Turk. RESULTS: 762 participants completed both surveys. We saw modest increases in vaccine confidence when comparing cervical cancer arm and control arm, and CDC arm and control arm; estimates were not statistically significant. The odds of reporting intent to vaccinate among the cervical cancer message arm were 1.13 times the odds of reporting intent to vaccinate in the control arm (95% CI: 0.30. 4.29). Intent to vaccinate was also not statistically significantly different between CDC message arm and control arm (OR = 1.25, 95%CI: 0.66, 2.37). CONCLUSION: Neither message had effect on intent to vaccinate, highlighting need for research to identify successful messaging strategies for HPV. Exploratory analyses suggest among parents with 'Low' vaccine confidence at baseline, the cervical cancer framed message may be more effective in changing intention than the CDC message or non-vaccine control. Future work should target groups with 'Low' or 'Medium' vaccine confidence at baseline - they may be more amenable to change, and more receptive to disease-salient messaging. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, Reference #: NCT03002324.

Trends in Kindergarten Rates of Vaccine Exemption and State-Level Policy, 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Kindergarten-entry vaccination requirements have played an important role in controlling vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States. Forty-eight states and the District of Colombia offer nonmedical exemptions to vaccines, ranging in stringency. METHODS: We analyzed state-level exemption data from 2011 to 2012 through 2015 to 2016 school years. States were categorized by exemption ease and type of exemption allowed. We calculated nonmedical exemption rates for each year in the sample and stratified by exemption ease, type, and 2 trend categories: 2011-12 through 2012-13 and 2013-14 through 2015-16 school years. Using generalized estimating equations, we created regression models estimating (1) the average annual change in nonmedical exemption rates and (2) relative differences in rates by state classification. RESULTS: The nonmedical exemption rate was higher during the 2013-2014 through 2015-2016 period (2.25%) compared to 2011-2012 through 2012-2013 (1.75%); more importantly, the average annual change in the latter period plateaued. The nonmedical exemption rate in states allowing philosophical and religious exemptions was 2.41 times as high as in states allowing only religious exemptions (incidence rate ratio = 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.71-3.41). CONCLUSIONS: There was an increase in nonmedical exemption rates through the 2012-2013 school year; however, rates stabilized through the 2015-2016 school year, showing an important shift in trend.