Arteriovenous Fistula Placement, Maturation, and Patency Loss in Older Patients Initiating Hemodialysis.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The current clinical guidelines for vascular access do not have specific recommendations for older hemodialysis patients. Our study aimed to determine the association of age with arteriovenous fistula (AVF) placement, maturation, and primary and secondary patency loss among older hemodialysis recipients. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A US national cohort of incident hemodialysis patients 67 years or older (N = 43,851) assembled from the US Renal Data System. EXPOSURE: Age at dialysis initiation. OUTCOMES: AVF placement, maturation, primary patency loss, and abandonment. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cause-specific and subdistribution proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of age and AVF outcomes, with kidney transplantation, peritoneal dialysis, and death treated as competing events. Age cutoff was identified by restricted cubic splines. We compared crude and inverse probability-weighted cumulative incidence functions using Gray's test. RESULTS: As compared with those aged 67-<77 years, patients 77 years or older had significantly lower probabilities of AVF placement (adjusted cause-specific HR [cHR], 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-0.99]; adjusted subdistribution HR [sHR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]; Gray's test P < 0.001) and maturation (adjusted cHR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.91-0.99]; adjusted sHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.90-0.97]; P < 0.001). However, age was not associated with AVF primary (adjusted cHR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.11]; adjusted sHR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99-1.09]; P = 0.09) or secondary (adjusted cHR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.94-1.20]; adjusted sHR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.93-1.18]; P = 0.4) patency loss. LIMITATIONS: Reliance on administrative claims to ascertain AVF outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of AVF maturation is an important consideration for vascular access planning. Age alone should not be the basis for excluding older dialysis patients from AVF creation because maintenance of fistula patency was not reduced with older age despite a modest reduction in fistula maturation.

Validation of a Risk Equation Predicting Hemodialysis Arteriovenous Fistula Primary Failure in Elderly.

BACKGROUND: Choice of vascular access for older hemodialysis patients presents a special challenge since the rate of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) primary failure is high. The Lok's risk equation predicting AVF primary failure has achieved good prediction accuracy and holds great potential for clinical use, but it has not been validated in the United States older hemodialysis patients. METHODS: We assembled a validation data set of 14,892 patients aged 67 years and older who initiated hemodialysis with a central venous catheter between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012, and had a subsequent, incident AVF placement from the United States Renal Data System. We examined the external validity of Lok's model by applying it to this validation data set. The discriminatory accuracy and calibration were evaluated by the concordance index (C-statistics) and calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: The observed frequency of AVF primary failure varied from 0.45 to 0.53 in hemodialysis patients in the validation data set. The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure calculated by using the Lok's risk equation ranged from 0.08 to 0.61, and 77.8, 40.5, and 51.7% of patients were categorized as having high, intermediate, and low risk of AVF primary failure, respectively. The C-statistics of the Lok's risk equation in the validation data set was 0.53 (95% CI 0.52-0.54). The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure corresponded poorly with the observed proportions in the calibration plot. CONCLUSIONS: When externally applied to a cohort of U.S. older hemodialysis patients, the Lok's risk equation exhibited poor discrimination and calibration accuracy. It is invalid to use it to predict AVF primary failure. A more complex model with strong predictors is expected to better serve clinical determination for AVF placement in this population.