Strong and lasting impacts of past global warming on baleen whales and their prey.

Global warming is affecting the population dynamics and trophic interactions across a wide range of ecosystems and habitats. Translating these real-time effects into their long-term consequences remains a challenge. The rapid and extreme warming period that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (7-12 thousand years ago) provides an opportunity to gain insights into the long-term responses of natural populations to periods with global warming. The effects of this post-LGM warming period have been assessed in many terrestrial taxa, whereas insights into the impacts of rapid global warming on marine taxa remain limited, especially for megafauna. In order to understand how large-scale climate fluctuations during the post-LGM affected baleen whales and their prey, we conducted an extensive, large-scale analysis of the long-term effects of the post-LGM warming on abundance and inter-ocean connectivity in eight baleen whale and seven prey (fish and invertebrates) species across the Southern and the North Atlantic Ocean; two ocean basins that differ in key oceanographic features. The analysis was based upon 7032 mitochondrial DNA sequences as well as genome-wide DNA sequence variation in 100 individuals. The estimated temporal changes in genetic diversity during the last 30,000 years indicated that most baleen whale populations underwent post-LGM expansions in both ocean basins. The increase in baleen whale abundance during the Holocene was associated with simultaneous changes in their prey and climate. Highly correlated, synchronized and exponential increases in abundance in both baleen whales and their prey in the Southern Ocean were indicative of a dramatic increase in ocean productivity. In contrast, the demographic fluctuations observed in baleen whales and their prey in the North Atlantic Ocean were subtle, varying across taxa and time. Perhaps most important was the observation that the ocean-wide expansions and decreases in abundance that were initiated by the post-LGM global warming, continued for millennia after global temperatures stabilized, reflecting persistent, long-lasting impacts of global warming on marine fauna.

Aerial photogrammetry and tag-derived tissue density reveal patterns of lipid-store body condition of humpback whales on their feeding grounds.

Monitoring the body condition of free-ranging marine mammals at different life-history stages is essential to understand their ecology as they must accumulate sufficient energy reserves for survival and reproduction. However, assessing body condition in free-ranging marine mammals is challenging. We cross-validated two independent approaches to estimate the body condition of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) at two feeding grounds in Canada and Norway: animal-borne tags (n = 59) and aerial photogrammetry (n = 55). Whales that had a large length-standardized projected area in overhead images (i.e. whales looked fatter) had lower estimated tissue body density (TBD) (greater lipid stores) from tag data. Linking both measurements in a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the true underlying (hidden) tissue body density (uTBD), we found uTBD was lower (-3.5 kg m-3) in pregnant females compared to adult males and resting females, while in lactating females it was higher (+6.0 kg m-3). Whales were more negatively buoyant (+5.0 kg m-3) in Norway than Canada during the early feeding season, possibly owing to a longer migration from breeding areas. While uTBD decreased over the feeding season across life-history traits, whale tissues remained negatively buoyant (1035.3 ± 3.8 kg m-3) in the late feeding season. This study adds confidence to the effectiveness of these independent methods to estimate the body condition of free-ranging whales.

Declining reproductive success in the Gulf of St. Lawrence's humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) reflects ecosystem shifts on their feeding grounds.

Climate change has resulted in physical and biological changes in the world's oceans. How the effects of these changes are buffered by top predator populations, and therefore how much plasticity lies at the highest trophic levels, are largely unknown. Here endocrine profiling, longitudinal observations of known individuals over 15 years between 2004 and 2018, and environmental data are combined to examine how the reproductive success of a top marine predator is being affected by ecosystem change. The Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, is a major summer feeding ground for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic. Blubber biopsy samples (n = 185) of female humpback whales were used to investigate variation in pregnancy rates through the quantification of progesterone. Annual pregnancy rates showed considerable variability, with no overall change detected over the study. However, a total of 457 photo-identified adult female sightings records with/without calves were collated, and showed that annual calving rates declined significantly. The probability of observing cow-calf pairs was related to favourable environmental conditions in the previous year; measured by herring spawning stock biomass, Calanus spp. abundance, overall copepod abundance and phytoplankton bloom magnitude. Approximately 39% of identified pregnancies were unsuccessful over the 15 years, and the average annual pregnancy rate was higher than the average annual calving rate at ~37% and ~23% respectively. Together, these data suggest that the declines in reproductive success could be, at least in part, the result of females being unable to accumulate the energy reserves necessary to maintain pregnancy and/or meet the energetic demands of lactation in years of poorer prey availability rather than solely an inability to become pregnant. The decline in calving rates over a period of major environmental variability may suggest that this population has limited resilience to such ecosystem change.

Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) mitogenomics: A cautionary tale of defining sub-species from mitochondrial sequence monophyly.

The advent of massive parallel sequencing technologies has resulted in an increase of studies based upon complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences that revisit the taxonomic status within and among species. Spatially distinct monophyly in such mitogenomic genealogies, i.e., the sharing of a recent common ancestor among con-specific samples collected in the same region has been viewed as evidence for subspecies. Several recent studies in cetaceans have employed this criterion to suggest subsequent intraspecific taxonomic revisions. We reason that employing intra-specific, spatially distinct monophyly at non-recombining, clonally inherited genomes is an unsatisfactory criterion for defining subspecies based upon theoretical (genetic drift) and practical (sampling effort) arguments. This point was illustrated by a re-analysis of a global mitogenomic assessment of fin whales, Balaenoptera physalus spp., published by Archer et al. (2013), which proposed to further subdivide the Northern Hemisphere fin whale subspecies, B. p. physalus. The proposed revision was based upon the detection of spatially distinct monophyly among North Atlantic and North Pacific fin whales in a genealogy based upon complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences. The extended analysis conducted in this study (1676 mitochondrial control region, 162 complete mitochondrial genome DNA sequences and 20 microsatellite loci genotyped in 380 samples) revealed that the apparent monophyly among North Atlantic fin whales reported by Archer et al. (2013) to be due to low sample sizes. In conclusion, defining sub-species from monophyly (i.e., the absence of para- or polyphyly) can lead to erroneous conclusions due to relatively "trivial" aspects, such as sampling. Basic population genetic processes (i.e., genetic drift and migration) also affect the time to the most recent common ancestor and hence the probability that individuals in a sample are monophyletic.

Migratory movements of fin whales from the Gulf of St. Lawrence challenge our understanding of the Northwest Atlantic stock structure.

Fin whales, Balenoptera physalus, are capital breeders, having the potential to separate breeding and feeding both spatially and temporally. Fin whales occur throughout the Northwest Atlantic, but stock structure and seasonal movements remain unclear. By deploying satellite transmitters on 28 individuals, we examine movement patterns within and beyond the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), Canada, and challenge the current understanding of stock structure. Eight individuals left the GSL in autumn, with five tags persisting into January. Migration patterns of these whales showed considerable variation in timing and trajectory, with movements extending south to 24°N, and thus beyond the assumed distribution limit of the species in the Northwest Atlantic. A rapid return to the Scotian Shelf or Gulf of Maine was observed from several whales after incursions in southern waters, suggesting that fin whales in the Northwest Atlantic may not have a common winter destination that fits the definition of a breeding ground. Area-restricted search (ARS) behavior dominated fin whale activities during summer (92%) and fall (72%), with persistence into the winter (56%); ARS occurred at multiple locations in the GSL, Scotian Shelf and Shelf edge, and near seamounts of the North Atlantic, having characteristics consistent with foraging areas.

Wild pedigrees inform mutation rates and historic abundance in baleen whales.

Phylogeny-based estimates suggesting a low germline mutation rate (µ) in baleen whales have influenced research ranging from assessments of whaling impacts to evolutionary cancer biology. We estimated µ directly from pedigrees in four baleen whale species for both the mitochondrial control region and nuclear genome. The results suggest values higher than those obtained through phylogeny-based estimates and similar to pedigree-based values for primates and toothed whales. Applying our estimate of µ reduces previous genetic-based estimates of preexploitation whale abundance by 86% and suggests that µ cannot explain low cancer rates in gigantic mammals. Our study shows that it is feasible to estimate µ directly from pedigrees in natural populations, with wide-ranging implications for ecological and evolutionary research.

Decline in abundance and apparent survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Estimates of abundance and survivorship provide quantifiable measures to monitor populations and to define and understand their conservation status. This study investigated changes in abundance and survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the context of anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions. A long-term data set, consisting of 35 years of photo-identification surveys and comprising more than 5,000 identifications of 507 individuals, formed the basis of this mark-recapture study. Based on model selection using corrected Akaike Information Criterion, the most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber model included a linear temporal trend in noncalf apparent survival rates with a sharp decline in the last 5 years of the study and a median survival rate of 0.946 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.910-0.967). To account for capture heterogeneity due to divergent patterns of site fidelity, agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to categorize individuals based on their annual and survey site fidelity indices. However, the negative trend in survivorship remained and was corroborated by a significant decline in the estimated super-population size from 335 (95% CI 321-348) individuals in 2004-2010 to 291 (95% CI 270-312) individuals in 2010-2016. Concurrently, a negative trend was estimated in recruitment to the population, supported by a sharp decrease in the number of observed calves. Ship strikes and changes in prey availability are potential drivers of the observed decline in fin whale abundance. The combination of clustering methods with mark-recapture represents a flexible way to investigate the effects of site fidelity on demographic variables and is broadly applicable to other individual-based studies.

Body density of humpback whales (Megaptera novaengliae) in feeding aggregations estimated from hydrodynamic gliding performance.

Many baleen whales undertake annual fasting and feeding cycles, resulting in substantial changes in their body condition, an important factor affecting fitness. As a measure of lipid-store body condition, tissue density of a few deep diving marine mammals has been estimated using a hydrodynamic glide model of drag and buoyancy forces. Here, we applied the method to shallow-diving humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in North Atlantic and Antarctic feeding aggregations. High-resolution 3-axis acceleration, depth and speed data were collected from 24 whales. Measured values of acceleration during 5 s glides were fitted to a hydrodynamic glide model to estimate unknown parameters (tissue density, drag term and diving gas volume) in a Bayesian framework. Estimated species-average tissue density (1031.6 ± 2.1 kg m-3, ±95% credible interval) indicates that humpback whale tissue is typically negatively buoyant although there was a large inter-individual variation ranging from 1025.2 to 1043.1 kg m-3. The precision of the individual estimates was substantially finer than the variation across different individual whales, demonstrating a progressive decrease in tissue density throughout the feeding season and comparably high lipid-store in pregnant females. The drag term (CDAm-1) was estimated to be relatively high, indicating a large effect of lift-related induced drag for humpback whales. Our results show that tissue density of shallow diving baleen whales can be estimated using the hydrodynamic gliding model, although cross-validation with other techniques is an essential next step. This method for estimating body condition is likely to be broadly applicable across a range of aquatic animals and environments.

Adapting to a warmer ocean--seasonal shift of baleen whale movements over three decades.

Global warming poses particular challenges to migratory species, which face changes to the multiple environments occupied during migration. For many species, the timing of migration between summer and winter grounds and also within-season movements are crucial to maximise exploitation of temporarily abundant prey resources in feeding areas, themselves adapting to the warming planet. We investigated the temporal variation in the occurrence of fin (Balaenoptera physalus) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a North Atlantic summer feeding ground, the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada), from 1984 to 2010 using a long-term study of individually identifiable animals. These two sympatric species both shifted their date of arrival at a previously undocumented rate of more than 1 day per year earlier over the study period thus maintaining the approximate 2-week difference in arrival of the two species and enabling the maintenance of temporal niche separation. However, the departure date of both species also shifted earlier but at different rates resulting in increasing temporal overlap over the study period indicating that this separation may be starting to erode. Our analysis revealed that the trend in arrival was strongly related to earlier ice break-up and rising sea surface temperature, likely triggering earlier primary production. The observed changes in phenology in response to ocean warming are a remarkable example of phenotypic plasticity and may partly explain how baleen whales were able to survive a number of changes in climate over the last several million years. However, it is questionable whether the observed rate of change in timing can be maintained. Substantial modification to the distribution or annual life cycle of these species might be required to keep up with the ongoing warming of the oceans.

Seasonal migrations of North Atlantic minke whales: novel insights from large-scale passive acoustic monitoring networks.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about migration patterns and seasonal distribution away from coastal summer feeding habitats of many pelagic baleen whales. Recently, large-scale passive acoustic monitoring networks have become available to explore migration patterns and identify critical habitats of these species. North Atlantic minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) perform seasonal migrations between high latitude summer feeding and low latitude winter breeding grounds. While the distribution and abundance of the species has been studied across their summer range, data on migration and winter habitat are virtually missing. Acoustic recordings, from 16 different sites from across the North Atlantic, were analyzed to examine the seasonal and geographic variation in minke whale pulse train occurrence, infer information about migration routes and timing, and to identify possible winter habitats. RESULTS: Acoustic detections show that minke whales leave their winter grounds south of 30° N from March through early April. On their southward migration in autumn, minke whales leave waters north of 40° N from mid-October through early November. In the western North Atlantic spring migrants appear to track the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream along the continental shelf, while whales travel farther offshore in autumn. Abundant detections were found off the southeastern US and the Caribbean during winter. Minke whale pulse trains showed evidence of geographic variation, with longer pulse trains recorded south of 40° N. Very few pulse trains were recorded during summer in any of the datasets. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the feasibility of using acoustic monitoring networks to explore migration patterns of pelagic marine mammals. Results confirm the presence of minke whales off the southeastern US and the Caribbean during winter months. The absence of pulse train detections during summer suggests either that minke whales switch their vocal behaviour at this time of year, are absent from available recording sites or that variation in signal structure influenced automated detection. Alternatively, if pulse trains are produced in a reproductive context by males, these data may indicate their absence from the selected recording sites. Evidence of geographic variation in pulse train duration suggests different behavioural functions or use of these calls at different latitudes.