Healthcare utilization and maternal and child mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 18 low- and middle-income countries: An interrupted time-series analysis with mathematical modeling of administrative data.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Visualizing the drivers of an effective health workforce: a detailed, interactive logic model.

BACKGROUND: A strong health workforce is a key building block of a well-functioning health system. To achieve health systems goals, policymakers need information on what works to improve and sustain health workforce performance. Most frameworks on health workforce planning and policymaking are high-level and conceptual, and do not provide a structure for synthesizing the growing body of empirical literature on the effectiveness of strategies to strengthen human resources for health (HRH). Our aim is to create a detailed, interactive logic model to map HRH evidence and inform policy development and decision-making. METHODS: We reviewed existing conceptual frameworks and models on health workforce planning and policymaking. We included frameworks that were: (1) visual, (2) comprehensive (not concentrated on specific outcomes or strategies), and (3) designed to support decision-making. We compared and synthesized the frameworks to develop a detailed logic model and interactive evidence visualization tool. RESULTS: Ten frameworks met our inclusion criteria. The resulting logic model, available at hrhvisualizer.org , allows for visualization of high-level linkages as well as a detailed understanding of the factors that affect health workforce outcomes. HRH data and governance systems interact with the context to affect how human resource policies are formulated and implemented. These policies affect HRH processes and strategies that influence health workforce outcomes and contribute to the overarching health systems goals of clinical quality, responsiveness, efficiency, and coverage. Unlike existing conceptual frameworks, this logic model has been operationalized in a highly visual, interactive platform that can be used to map the research informing policies and illuminating their underlying mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: The interactive logic model presented in this paper will allow for comprehensive mapping of literature around effective strategies to strengthen HRH. It can aid researchers in communicating with policymakers about the evidence behind policy questions, thus supporting the translation of evidence to policy.

Leveraging water, sanitation and hygiene for nutrition in low- and middle-income countries: A conceptual framework.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) is associated with nutritional status including stunting, which affects 144 million children under 5 globally. Despite the consistent epidemiological association between WASH indicators and nutritional status, the provision of WASH interventions alone has not been found to improve child growth in recent randomized control trials. We conducted a literature review to develop a new conceptual framework that highlights what is known about the WASH to nutrition pathways, the limitations of certain interventions and how future WASH could be leveraged to benefit nutritional status in populations. This new conceptual framework will provide policy makers, program implementors and researchers with a visual tool to bring into perspective multiple levels of WASH and how it may effectively influence nutrition while identifying existing gaps in implementation and research.

Making the health system work for the delivery of nutrition interventions.

Addressing malnutrition requires strategies that are comprehensive and multi-sectoral. Within a multi-sectoral approach, the health system is essential to deliver 10 nutrition-specific interventions, which, if scaled up, could substantially reduce under-5 deaths in high-burden countries through improving maternal and child undernutrition. This study identifies the health system components required for the effective delivery of these interventions, highlighting opportunities and challenges for nutrition programmes and policies. We reviewed implementation guidance for each nutrition-specific intervention, mapping the delivery process for each intervention and determining the health system components required for their delivery. We integrated the components into a single health systems framework for nutrition, illustrating the pathways by which health system components influence household-level determinants of nutrition and individual-level health outcomes. Nutrition-specific interventions are typically delivered in one of four ways: (i) when nutrition interventions are intentionally sought out, (ii) when care is sought for other, unrelated interventions, (iii) at a health facility after active community case finding and referral, and (iv) in the community after active community case finding. A health system enables these processes by providing health services and facilitating care seeking for services, which together require a skilled and motivated health workforce, an effective supply chain, demand for services and access to services. The nutrition community should consider the processes by which nutrition-specific interventions are delivered and the health system components required for their success. Programmes should encourage the delivery of nutrition interventions at every client-provider interaction and should actively generate demand for services-in general, and for nutrition services specifically.

Integrating nutrition into the education sector in low- and middle-income countries: A framework for a win-win collaboration.

Malnutrition-both undernutrition and overnutrition-is a public health concern worldwide and particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The education sector has high potential to improve immediate nutrition outcomes by providing food in schools and to have more long-term impact through education. We developed a conceptual framework to show how the education sector can be leveraged for nutrition. We reviewed the literature to identify existing frameworks outlining how nutrition programs can be delivered by and through the education sector and used these to build a comprehensive framework. We first organized nutrition programs in the education sector into (1) school food, meals, and food environment; (2) nutrition and health education; (3) physical activity and education; (4) school health services; and (5) water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) sector. We then discuss how each one can be successfully implemented. We found high potential in improving nutrition standards and quality of school foods, meals and food environment, especially through collaboration with the agriculture sector. There is a need for well-integrated, culturally appropriate nutrition and health education into the existing school curriculum. This must be supported by a skilled workforce-including nutrition and public health professionals and school staff. Parental and community engagement is cornerstone for program sustainability and success. Current monitoring and evaluation of nutrition programming in schools is weak, and effectiveness, including cost-effectiveness, of interventions is not yet adequately quantified. Finally, we note that opportunities for leveraging the education sector in the fight against rising overweight and obesity rates are under-researched and likely underutilized in LMICs.

When it rains, it pours: detecting seasonal patterns in utilization of maternal healthcare in Mozambique using routine data.

BACKGROUND: Climatic conditions and seasonal trends can affect population health, but typically, we consider the effect of climate on the epidemiology of communicable diseases. However, climate can also have an effect on access to care, particularly in remote rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we investigate associations between the rainy season and the utilization of maternal health services in Mozambique. METHODS: We examined patterns in the number of women receiving antenatal care (ANC) and delivering at a health facility for 2012-2019, using data from Mozambique's Health Management Information Systems. We investigated the association between seasonality (rainfall) and maternal health service utilization (ANC and institutional delivery) at national and provincial level. We fit a negative binomial regression model for institutional delivery and used it to estimate the yearly reduction in institutional deliveries due to the rainy season, with other factors held constant. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to model increases in mortality due to this estimated decrease in institutional delivery associated with the rainy season. RESULTS: In our national analysis, the rate of ANC visits was 1% lower during the rainy season, adjusting for year and province (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96-1.03). The rate of institutional deliveries was 6% lower during the rainy season than the dry season, after adjusting for time and province (IRR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92-0.96). In provincial analyses, all provinces except for Maputo-Cidade, Maputo-Province, Nampula, and Niassa showed a statistically significantly lower rate of institutional deliveries in the rainy season. None were statistically significantly lower for ANC. We estimate that, due to reductions in institutional delivery attributable only to the rainy season, there were 74 additional maternal deaths and 726 additional deaths of children under the age of 1 month in 2021, that would not have died if the mothers had instead delivered at a facility. CONCLUSION: Fewer women deliver at a health facility during the rainy season in Mozambique than during the dry season. Barriers to receiving care during pregnancy and childbirth must be addressed using a multisectoral approach, considering the impact of geographical inequities.

Challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making for maternal and child health in Mozambique: district, municipal and national case studies.

BACKGROUND: The need for evidence-based decision-making in the health sector is well understood in the global health community. Yet, gaps persist between the availability of evidence and the use of that evidence. Most research on evidence-based decision-making has been carried out in higher-income countries, and most studies look at policy-making rather than decision-making more broadly. We conducted this study to address these gaps and to identify challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making in Maternal, Newborn and Child Health and Nutrition (MNCH&N) at the municipality, district, and national levels in Mozambique. METHODS: We used a case study design to capture the experiences of decision-makers and analysts (n = 24) who participated in evidence-based decision-making processes related to health policies and interventions to improve MNCH&N in diverse decision-making contexts (district, municipality, and national levels) in 2014-2017, in Mozambique. We examined six case studies, at the national level, in Maputo City and in two districts of Sofala Province and two of Zambézia Province, using individual in-depth interviews with key informants and a document review, for three weeks, in July 2018. RESULTS: Our analysis highlighted various challenges for evidence-based decision-making for MNCH&N, at national, district, and municipality levels in Mozambique, including limited demand for evidence, limited capacity to use evidence, and lack of trust in the available evidence. By contrast, access to evidence, and availability of evidence were viewed positively and seen as potential facilitators. Organizational capacity for the demand and use of evidence appears to be the greatest challenge; while individual capacity is also a barrier. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based decision-making requires that actors have access to evidence and are empowered to act on that evidence. This, in turn, requires alignment between those who collect data, those who analyze and interpret data, and those who make and implement decisions. Investments in individual, organizational, and systems capacity to use evidence are needed to foster practices of evidence-based decision-making for improved maternal and child health in Mozambique.

How is the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) used in the global health community? Results of a mixed-methods LiST user study.

BACKGROUND: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a computer-based model that estimates the impact of scaling up key interventions to improve maternal, newborn and child health. Initially developed to inform the Lancet Child Survival Series of 2003, the functionality and scope of LiST have been expanded greatly over the past 10 years. This study sought to "take stock" of how LiST is now being used and for what purposes. METHODS: We conducted a quantitative survey of LiST users, qualitative interviews with a smaller sample of LiST users and members of the LiST team at Johns Hopkins University, and a literature review of studies involving LiST analyses. RESULTS: LiST is being used by donors, international organizations, governments, NGOs and academic institutions to assist program evaluation, inform strategic planning and evidenced-based decision-making, and advocate for high-impact interventions. Some organizations have integrated LiST into internal workflows and built in-house capacity for using LiST, while other organizations rely on the LiST team for support and to outsource analyses. In addition to being a popular stand-alone software, LiST is used as a calculation engine for other applications. CONCLUSIONS: The Lives Saved Tool has been reported to be a useful model in maternal, newborn, and child health. With continued commitment, LiST should remain as a part of the international health toolkit used to assess maternal, newborn and child health programs.

All things to all people: trade-offs in pursuit of an ideal modeling tool for maternal and child health.

BACKGROUND: Modeling tools have potential to aid decision making for program planning and evaluation at all levels, but are still largely the domain of technical experts, consultants, and global-level staff. One model that can improve decision making for maternal and child health is the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). We examined respondents' perceptions of LiST's strengths and weaknesses, to identify ways in which LiST - and similar modeling tools - can adapt to be more accessible and helpful to policy makers. METHODS: We interviewed 21 purposefully sampled LiST users. First, we identified the characteristics that respondents explicitly stated, or implicitly implied, were important in a modeling tool, and then used these results to create a framework for reviewing a modeling tool. Second, we used this framework to categorize the strengths and weaknesses of LiST that respondents articulated. RESULTS: Two overarching qualities were important to respondents: usability and accuracy. For some users, LiST already meets these criteria: it allows for customized input parameters to increase specificity; the interface is intuitive; the assumptions and calculations are scientifically sound; and the standard metric of "additional lives saved" is understood and comparable across settings. Other respondents had different views, although their complaints were typically not that the tool is unusable or inaccurate, but that aspects of the tool could be better explained or easier to understand. CONCLUSION: Government and agency staff at all levels should be empowered to use the data available to them, including the use of models to make full use of these data. For this, we need tools that meet a threshold of both accuracy, so results clarify rather than mislead, and usability, so tools can be used readily and widely, not just by select experts. With these ideals in mind, there are ways in which LiST might continue to be improved or adapted to further advance its uptake and impact.

Using the Lives Saved Tool to aid country planning in meeting mortality targets: a case study from Mali.

BACKGROUND: Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali's MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions. METHODS: The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali's ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention. RESULTS: If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.

Initial experiences and innovations in supervising community health workers for maternal, newborn, and child health in Morogoro region, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Supervision is meant to improve the performance and motivation of community health workers (CHWs). However, most evidence on supervision relates to facility health workers. The Integrated Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) Program in Morogoro region, Tanzania, implemented a CHW pilot with a cascade supervision model where facility health workers were trained in supportive supervision for volunteer CHWs, supported by regional and district staff, and with village leaders to further support CHWs. We examine the initial experiences of CHWs, their supervisors, and village leaders to understand the strengths and challenges of such a supervision model for CHWs. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected concurrently from CHWs, supervisors, and village leaders. A survey was administered to 228 (96%) of the CHWs in the Integrated MNCH Program and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 CHWs, 8 supervisors, and 15 village leaders purposefully sampled to represent different actor perspectives from health centre catchment villages in Morogoro region. Descriptive statistics analysed the frequency and content of CHW supervision, while thematic content analysis explored CHW, supervisor, and village leader experiences with CHW supervision. RESULTS: CHWs meet with their facility-based supervisors an average of 1.2 times per month. CHWs value supervision and appreciate the sense of legitimacy that arises when supervisors visit them in their village. Village leaders and district staff are engaged and committed to supporting CHWs. Despite these successes, facility-based supervisors visit CHWs in their village an average of only once every 2.8 months, CHWs and supervisors still see supervision primarily as an opportunity to check reports, and meetings with district staff are infrequent and not well scheduled. CONCLUSIONS: Supervision of CHWs could be strengthened by streamlining supervision protocols to focus less on report checking and more on problem solving and skills development. Facility health workers, while important for technical oversight, may not be the best mentors for certain tasks such as community relationship-building. We suggest further exploring CHW supervision innovations, such as an enhanced role for community actors, who may be more suitable to support CHWs engaged primarily in health promotion than scarce and over-worked facility health workers.

Prevalence and care-seeking for chronic diseases among Syrian refugees in Jordan.

BACKGROUND: There are currently more people displaced by conflict than at any time since World War II. The profile of displaced populations has evolved with displacement increasingly occurring in urban and middle-income settings. Consequently, an epidemiological shift away from communicable diseases that have historically characterized refugee populations has occurred. The high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) poses a challenge to in terms of provision of appropriate secondary and tertiary services, continuity of care, access to medications, and costs. In light of the increasing burden of NCDs faced by refugees, we undertook this study to characterize the prevalence of NCDs and better understand issues related to care-seeking for NCDs among Syrian refugees in non-camp settings in Jordan. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1550 refugees was conducted using a multi-stage cluster design with probability proportional to size sampling to obtain a nationally representative sample of Syrian refugees outside of camps. To obtain information on chronic conditions, respondents were asked a series of questions about hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and arthritis. Differences by care-seeking for these conditions were examined using chi-square and t-test methods and characteristics of interest were included in the adjusted logistic regression model. RESULTS: Among adults, hypertension prevalence was the highest (9.7%, CI: 8.8-10.6), followed by arthritis (6.8%, CI: 5.9-7.6), diabetes (5.3%, CI: 4.6-6.0), chronic respiratory diseases (3.1%, CI: 2.4-3.8), and cardiovascular disease (3.7%, CI: 3.2, 4.3). Of the 1363 NCD cases, 84.7% (CI: 81.6-87.3) received care in Jordan; of the five NCDs assessed, arthritis cases had the lowest rates of care seeking at 65%, (CI:0-88, p = 0.005). Individuals from households in which the head completed post-secondary and primary education, respectively, had 89% (CI: 22-98) and 88% (CI: 13-98) lower odds of seeking care than those with no education (p = 0.028 and p = 0.037, respectively). Refugees in North Jordan were most likely to seek care for their condition; refugees in Central Jordan had 68% (CI: 1-90) lower odds of care-seeking than those in the North (p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: More than half of Syrian refugee households in Jordan reported a member with a NCD. A significant minority did not receive care, citing cost as the primary barrier. As funding limitations persist, identifying the means to maintain and improve access to NCD care for Syrian refugees in Jordan is essential.

Early effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health service disruption in Mozambique.

This article is part of the Research Topic 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'. Introduction: After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, more than 184 million cases and 4 million deaths had been recorded worldwide by July 2021. These are likely to be underestimates and do not distinguish between direct and indirect deaths resulting from disruptions in health care services. The purpose of our research was to assess the early impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and early 2021 on maternal and child healthcare service delivery at the district level in Mozambique using routine health information system data, and estimate associated excess maternal and child deaths. Methods: Using data from Mozambique's routine health information system (SISMA, Sistema de Informação em Saúde para Monitoria e Avaliação), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in nine selected indicators representing the continuum of maternal and child health care service provision in 159 districts in Mozambique. The dataset was extracted as counts of services provided from January 2017 to March 2021. Descriptive statistics were used for district comparisons, and district-specific time-series plots were produced. We used absolute differences or ratios for comparisons between observed data and modeled predictions as a measure of the magnitude of loss in service provision. Mortality estimates were performed using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Results: All maternal and child health care service indicators that we assessed demonstrated service delivery disruptions (below 10% of the expected counts), with the number of new users of family planing and malaria treatment with Coartem (number of children under five treated) experiencing the largest disruptions. Immediate losses were observed in April 2020 for all indicators, with the exception of treatment of malaria with Coartem. The number of excess deaths estimated in 2020 due to loss of health service delivery were 11,337 (12.8%) children under five, 5,705 (11.3%) neonates, and 387 (7.6%) mothers. Conclusion: Findings from our study support existing research showing the negative impact of COVID-19 on maternal and child health services utilization in sub-Saharan Africa. This study offers subnational and granular estimates of service loss that can be useful for health system recovery planning. To our knowledge, it is the first study on the early impacts of COVID-19 on maternal and child health care service utilization conducted in an African Portuguese-speaking country.

Building coherent monitoring and evaluation plans with the Evaluation Planning Tool for global health.

Practitioners in global health are called to monitor and evaluate their projects. This keeps projects on track, it meets donor and public demand, and it is a key mechanism by which global health organizations hold themselves accountable and improve their community of practice. However, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is time- and resource-consuming, bringing into question whether the effort expended on M&E is worth it. While there has been a shift towards emphasizing the learning aspect of M&E, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other actors still struggle to get value from their efforts. One reason for this is that M&E plans are often not coherent or employed to their full potential. Theories of change, indicator lists, and data collection become a series of disjointed efforts that do not tie together. They become tick-the-box exercises to satisfy donors rather than a logical approach to draw meaningful findings for stakeholders, governments, and local communities. In this paper, we propose a step-by-step approach to utilizing M&E tools to their fullest potential, including: (1) a clearly defined theory of change that captures all program pathways and shows all intermediate objectives needed to achieve impact, (2) indicators which directly reflect the intermediate and ultimate objectives in the theory of change, and (3) a data collection plan which includes appropriate methods to measure indicators and address the questions stakeholders want answered. We make the case for a simpler, more coherent approach to M&E and propose a new tool to help practitioners more easily develop evaluation plans that are rigorous, practical, and worth the effort.

NGO perspectives on the challenges and opportunities for real-world evaluation: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The move towards robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) has been increasing in global health, motivated by both an accountability agenda and to increase learning from M&E activities. Many international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) receive funding from one or more large institutional donors. OBJECTIVE: To understand NGOs' perspective on their own role in terms of accountability to both donors and the populations they serve. METHODS: We conducted a series of in-depth interviews with M&E staff in 11 NGOs with projects related to maternal and child health to better understand how M&E is being implemented in these organizations. We then examined the data based on a priori identified themes. RESULTS: We found that despite flexibility from some donors, rigid reporting structures remain a barrier for NGOs to fully communicate the impact of their projects. While NGOs do utilize M&E findings, their use is limited by low staff capacity. The primary audience for the results remains the donor agency, and the primary motivation for M&E remains donor reporting. Reporting remains a burdensome affair, with ongoing limitations around streamlining results for donors. To reduce the burden of reporting for individual projects, the participants in our study suggested placing greater emphasis on process evaluations rather than impact evaluations. Participants also suggested increased data sharing between organizations working in the same regions and making better use of secondary data sources; in both cases to reduce the need for primary data collection. CONCLUSION: We carried out this work to advance the conversation on how NGOs currently manage their M&E - a conversation which should involve NGOs, donors, local health system actors, and the communities with whom they work. More flexibility from donors, increased use of technology, and more transparency on if and how data is being used would help NGOs with their M&E process.

The Potential Contribution of the Health System to Reducing Stunting in SUN Countries.

BACKGROUND: The global nutrition community has called for a multisectoral approach to improve nutritional outcomes. While most essential nutrition interventions are delivered through the health system, nutrition-sensitive interventions from other sectors are critical. OBJECTIVE: We modeled the potential impact that Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) interventions delivered by the health system would have on reaching World Health Assembly (WHA) stunting targets. We also included results for targets 2, 3, and 5. METHODS: Using all available countries enrolled in the SUN movement, we identified nutrition interventions that are delivered by the health system available in the Lives Saved Tool. We then scaled these interventions linearly from 2012 up to nearly universal coverage (90%) in 2025 and estimated the potential impact that this increase would have with regard to the WHA targets. RESULTS: Our results show that only 16 countries out of 56 would reach the 40% reduction in the number of stunted children by 2025, with a combined total reduction of 32% across all countries. Similarly, only 2 countries would achieve the 50% reduction in anemia for women of reproductive age, 41 countries would reach at least 50% exclusive breastfeeding in children under 6 months of age, and 0 countries would reach the 30% reduction in low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: While the health system has an important role to play in the delivery of health interventions, focusing investments and efforts on the health system alone will not allow countries to reach the WHA targets by 2025. Concerted efforts across multiple sectors are necessary.

COVID-19 Vaccine Concerns and Acceptability by Language in a Marginalized Population in Rhode Island.

INTRODUCTION: We need to understand the continued concerns and acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines within marginalized communities in the United States. Our study explores the concerns and acceptability of COVID-19 vaccines, by language group, at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) in Rhode Island. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory, mixed data collection telephone survey in languages spoken in the community (Spanish, Cape Verdean (CV) Creole/Portuguese, and English). Participants were asked about their COVID-19 vaccination status, as well as vaccine concerns and acceptability via 9 closed-ended and 2 open-ended questions. Chi squared and multivariate analysis was used to compare concerns and acceptability across languages. Coding and immersion/crystallization techniques were used to identify qualitative data themes. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 58%. Side effects were cited as the most frequent (66%) concern among all language groups. Concern about the speed of vaccine development, vaccine ingredients, and being in a research trial varied significantly by language. Qualitative findings included concerns about chronic medical conditions and generalized fear of vaccine safety. English speakers were the most likely to report concerns and CV Creole/Portuguese speakers were the least likely to report concerns about the vaccine. Spanish and CV Creole/Portuguese participants who were not yet vaccinated reported higher acceptability to receive the vaccine compared to English speakers, with odds ratios of 2.00 (95% CI: 1.00-4.00) and 1.27 (95% CI: 0.62-2.60), respectively. CONCLUSION: To mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future pandemics, strategies must be based on understanding the beliefs and perceptions of marginalized communities.

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. METHODS: We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8-51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10-50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. FINDINGS: Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8-18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3-51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8-44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3-38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18-23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

Obstacles to advancing women's health in Mozambique: a qualitative investigation into the perspectives of policy makers.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial investment in women's health over the past two decades, and enthusiastic government support for MDG 5 and SDG 3, health indicators for women in Mozambique remain among the lowest in the world. Maternal mortality stayed constant from 2003 to 2011, with an MMR of 408; the estimated HIV prevalence for women of 15-24 years is over twice that for men; and only 12.1% of women are estimated to be using modern contraception. This study explores the perspectives of policy makers in the Mozambican health system and affiliates on the challenges that are preventing Mozambique from achieving greater gains in women's health. METHODS: We conducted in-depth interviews with 39 senior- and mid-level policy makers in the Ministry of Health and affiliated institutions (32 women, 7 men). Participants were sampled using a combination of systematic random sampling and snowball sampling. Participants were asked about their experiences formulating and implementing health policies and programs, what is needed to improve women's health in Mozambique, and the barriers and opportunities to achieving such improvement. RESULTS: Participants unanimously argued that women's health is already sufficiently prioritized in national health policies and strategies in Mozambique; the problem, rather, is the implementation and execution of existing women's health policies and programs. Participants raised challenges related to the policy making process itself, including an ever-changing, fragmented decision-making process, lack of long-term perspective, weak evaluation, and misalignment of programs across sectors. The disproportionate influence of donors was also mentioned, with lack of ownership, rapid transitions, and vertical programming limiting the scope for meaningful change. Finally, participants reported a disconnect between policy makers at the national level and realities on the ground, with poor dissemination of strategies, limited district resources, and poor consideration of local cultural contexts. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve meaningful gains in women's health in Mozambique, more focus must be placed on resolving the bottleneck that is the implementation of existing policies. Barriers to implementation exist across multiple health systems components, therefore, solutions to address them must also reach across these multiple components. A holistic approach to strengthening the health system across multiple sectors and at multiple levels is needed. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary information accompanies this paper at (10.1186/s41256-019-0119-x).

Projecting the lives saved by continuing the historical scale-up of child and maternal health interventions in Mozambique until 2030.

BACKGROUND: Over the past 20 years, Mozambique has achieved substantial reductions in maternal, neonatal, and child mortality. However, mortality rates are still high, and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for maternal and child health, further gains are needed. One technique that can guide policy makers to more effectively allocate health resources is to model the coverage increases and lives saved that would be achieved if trends continue as they have in the past, and under differing alternative scenarios. METHODS: We used historical coverage data to project future coverage levels for 22 child and maternal interventions for 2015-2030 using a Bayesian regression model. We then used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the additional lives saved by the projected coverage increases, and the further child lives saved if Mozambique were to achieve universal coverage levels of selected individual interventions. RESULTS: If historical trends continue, coverage of all interventions will increase from 2015 to 2030. As a result, 180 080 child lives (0-59 months) and 3640 maternal lives will be saved that would not be saved if coverage instead stays constant from 2015 to 2030. Most child lives will be saved by preventing malaria deaths: 40.9% of the mortality reduction will come from increased coverage of artemisinin-based compounds for malaria treatment (ACTs) and insecticide treated bednets (ITNs). Most maternal lives will be saved from increased labor and delivery management (29.4%) and clean birth practices (17.1%). The biggest opportunity to save even more lives, beyond those expected by historical trends, is to further invest in malaria treatment. If coverage of ACTs was increased to 90% in 2030, rather than the anticipated coverage of 68.4% in 2030, an additional 3456 child lives would be saved per year. CONCLUSIONS: Mozambique can expect to see continued reductions in mortality rates in the coming years, although due to population growth the absolute number of child deaths will decrease only marginally, the absolute number of maternal deaths will continue to increase, and the country will not achieve current SDG targets for either child or maternal mortality. Significant further health investments are needed to eliminate all preventable child and maternal deaths in the coming decades.