Geographic Variation, Economic Activity, and Labor Market Characteristics in Trajectories of Suicide in the United States, 2008-2020.

Suicide rates in the United States have increased over the past 15 years, with substantial geographic variation in these increases; yet there have been few attempts to cluster counties by the magnitude of suicide rate changes according to intercept and slope or to identify the economic precursors of increases. We used vital statistics data and growth mixture models to identify clusters of counties by their magnitude of suicide growth from 2008 to 2020 and examined associations with county economic and labor indices. Our models identified 5 clusters, each differentiated by intercept and slope magnitude, with the highest-rate cluster (4% of counties) being observed mainly in sparsely populated areas in the West and Alaska, starting the time series at 25.4 suicides per 100,000 population, and exhibiting the steepest increase in slope (0.69/100,000/year). There was no cluster for which the suicide rate was stable or declining. Counties in the highest-rate cluster were more likely to have agricultural and service economies and less likely to have urban professional economies. Given the increased burden of suicide, with no clusters of counties improving over time, additional policy and prevention efforts are needed, particularly targeted at rural areas in the West.

Simulating the Simultaneous Impact of Medication for Opioid Use Disorder and Naloxone on Opioid Overdose Death in Eight New York Counties.

BACKGROUND: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic; 28.3 per 100,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2020. Simulation models can help understand and address this complex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. Using the HEALing Communities Study, aimed at reducing opioid overdoses, and an agent-based model, Simulation of Community-Level Overdose Prevention Strategy, we simulated increases in buprenorphine initiation and retention and naloxone distribution aimed at reducing overdose deaths by 40% in New York Counties. METHODS: Our simulations covered 2020-2022. The eight counties contrasted urban or rural and high and low baseline rates of opioid use disorder treatment. The model calibrated agent characteristics for opioid use and use disorder, treatments and treatment access, and fatal and nonfatal overdose. Modeled interventions included increased buprenorphine initiation and retention, and naloxone distribution. We predicted a decrease in the rate of fatal opioid overdose 1 year after intervention, given various modeled intervention scenarios. RESULTS: Counties required unique combinations of modeled interventions to achieve a 40% reduction in overdose deaths. Assuming a 200% increase in naloxone from current levels, high baseline treatment counties achieved a 40% reduction in overdose deaths with a simultaneous 150% increase in buprenorphine initiation. In comparison, low baseline treatment counties required 250-300% increases in buprenorphine initiation coupled with 200-1000% increases in naloxone, depending on the county. CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the need for tailored county-level interventions to increase service utilization and reduce overdose deaths, as the modeled impact of interventions depended on the county's experience with past and current interventions.

Associations Between Structural Stigma and Allostatic Load Among Sexual Minorities: Results From a Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: Structural forms of stigma and discrimination are associated with adverse health outcomes across numerous stigmatized groups, including lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals. However, the biological consequences of structural stigma among LGB populations are understudied. To begin to address this gap, we assessed associations between indicators of structural stigma (i.e., state-level policies) targeting LGB individuals and allostatic load (AL) indices representing physiological dysregulations. METHODS: Pooled data from the continuous 2001-2014 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey were analyzed (LGB: n = 864; heterosexual: n = 20,310). Ten state-level LGB-related policies (e.g., employment nondiscrimination protections, same-sex marriage) were used to operationalize structural stigma. A sex-specific AL index representing 11 immune, metabolic, and cardiovascular biomarkers was estimated. Multilevel models were used to examine associations between structural stigma and AL, net of nine individual-level characteristics (e.g., education, race/ethnicity, age, and health behaviors). RESULTS: Sexual minority men living in states with low levels of structural stigma experienced significantly lower AL ( ß = -0.45, p = .02) compared with sexual minority men living in states with high structural stigma (i.e., fewer protective policies). There was no significant association between structural stigma and AL among sexual minority women. CONCLUSIONS: By demonstrating direct associations between structural stigma and indices of physiological dysregulation, our findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how the social environment can "get under the skin and skull" for sexual minority men in the United States. Future research should explore whether these mechanisms generalize to other marginalized groups exposed to structural stigma.

Epidemiologic trends and risk factors associated with the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in the United States, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Despite the decline in the rate of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, it is unknown how the 3 strong and modifiable risk factors - alcohol, smoking, and obesity -have impacted these trends. We examine changes in CHD mortality rates in the United States and estimate the preventable fraction of CHD deaths by eliminating CHD risk factors. METHODS: We performed a sequential time-series analysis to examine mortality trends among females and males aged 25 to 84 years in the United States, 1990-2019, with CHD recorded as the underlying cause of death. We also examined mortality rates from chronic ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). All underlying causes of CHD deaths were classified based on the International Classification of Disease 9th and 10th revisions. We estimated the preventable fraction of CHD deaths attributable to alcohol, smoking, and high body-mass index (BMI) through the Global Burden of Disease. RESULTS: Among females (3,452,043 CHD deaths; mean [standard deviation, SD] age 49.3 [15.7] years), the age-standardized CHD mortality rate declined from 210.5 in 1990 to 66.8 per 100,000 in 2019 (annual change -4.04%, 95% CI -4.05, -4.03; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.32, 95% CI, 0.41, 0.43). Among males (5,572,629 CHD deaths; mean [SD] age 47.9 [15.1] years), the age-standardized CHD mortality rate declined from 442.4 to 156.7 per 100,000 (annual change -3.74%, 95% CI, -3.75, -3.74; IRR 0.36, 95% CI, 0.35, 0.37). A slowing of the decline in CHD mortality rates among younger cohorts was evident. Correction for unmeasured confounders through a quantitative bias analysis slightly attenuated the decline. Half of all CHD deaths could have been prevented with the elimination of smoking, alcohol, and obesity, including 1,726,022 female and 2,897,767 male CHD deaths between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in CHD mortality is slowing among younger cohorts. The complex dynamics of risk factors appear to shape mortality rates, underscoring the importance of targeted strategies to reduce modifiable risk factors that contribute to CHD mortality.

Exploring Potential Bellwethers for Drug-Related Mortality in the General Population: A Case for Sentinel Surveillance of Trends in Drug Use among Nightclub/Festival Attendees.

Background: Drug-related deaths in the US continue to increase. Sentinel surveillance of high-risk populations can provide early warning for shifts in trends. Nightclub/festival attendees have high levels of drug use, so we explored whether use among this population can serve as a potential bellwether or indicator for use-related mortality in the general population.Methods: Trends in past-year cocaine and methamphetamine use were estimated from nightclub/festival attendees in New York City (NYC) and among NY residents, and trends were estimated for related death rates in NYC (2014/15-2019/20). Using national data from England and Wales (2010-2019), trends in past-year cocaine and ecstasy use (among the full population and among nightclub attendees) and related deaths were also estimated.Results: In NY/NYC, cocaine use remained stable in the general population, but use among nightclub/festival attendees and cocaine-related deaths doubled. Methamphetamine use among nightclub/festival attendees and death rates also more than doubled while use among the general population remained stable. In UK countries, increases in cocaine and ecstasy use were larger for infrequent/frequent nightclub attendees than in the general population, with 3.6- and 8-fold increases in related deaths, respectively. In UK countries, the association between nightclub attendance and death rates increased in a dose-response-like manner with larger associations detected when death rates were lagged by one year.Conclusions: Patterns of use among nightclub/festival attendees, more so than patterns in the general population, were similar to patterns of drug-related deaths. Use among this subpopulation could possibly serve as a bellwether for use-related outcomes. Continued surveillance is recommended.

Age, period, and cohort effects on suicide death in the United States from 1999 to 2018: moderation by sex, race, and firearm involvement.

The role of sex, race, and suicide method on recent increases in suicide mortality in the United States remains unclear. Estimating the age, period, and cohort effects underlying suicide mortality trends can provide important insights for the causal hypothesis generating process. We generated updated age-period-cohort effect estimates of recent suicide mortality rates in the US, examining the putative roles of sex, race, and method for suicide, using data from all death certificates in the US between 1999 and 2018. After designating deaths as attributable to suicide according to ICD-10 underlying cause of death codes X60-X84, Y87.0, and U03, we (i) used hexagonal grids to describe rates of suicide by age, period, and cohort visually and (ii) modeled sex-, race-, and suicide method-specific age, period, and cohort effects. We found that, while suicide mortality increased in the US between 1999 and 2018 across age, sex, race, and suicide method, there was substantial heterogeneity in age and cohort effects by method, sex, and race, with a first peak of suicide risk in youth, a second peak in older ages-specific to male firearm suicide, and increased rates among younger cohorts of non-White individuals. Our findings should prompt discussion regarding age-specific clinical firearm safety interventions, drivers of minoritized populations' adverse early-life experiences, and racial differences in access to and quality of mental healthcare.

Structure and trends of externalizing and internalizing psychiatric symptoms and gender differences among adolescents in the US from 1991 to 2018.

PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate the structure of internalizing and externalizing symptoms and potential time dynamics in their association. This is understudied among adolescents, despite increasing internalizing and decreasing externalizing symptoms in recent years. METHODS: We analyzed data from US Monitoring the Future cross-sectional surveys (1991-2018) representative of school-attending adolescents (N = 304,542). Exploratory factor analysis using maximum likelihood estimation method and promax rotation resulted in a two-factor solution (factor correlation r = 0.24) that differentiated eight internalizing and seven conduct-related externalizing symptoms. Time-varying effect modification linear regression models estimated the association between standardized internalizing and externalizing symptoms factor scores over time overall and by gender. RESULTS: In 2012, trends in average factor scores diverged for internalizing and externalizing factors. The average standardized internalizing factor score increased from - 0.03 in 2012 to 0.06 in 2013 and the average externalizing factor score decreased from - 0.06 in 2011 to - 0.13 in 2012. We found that for every one-unit increase in standardized internalizing factor score, standardized externalizing factor score increased by 0.224 units in 2010 (95% CI: 0.215, 0.233); the magnitude of this increase was 22.3% lower in 2018 (i.e., 0.174 units; 95% CI: 0.160, 0.188). Decoupling of internalizing and externalizing symptoms began earlier among boys (~ 1995) than among girls (~ 2010). CONCLUSION: The decoupling of internalizing and externalizing symptoms among adolescents suggests that changes in the prevalence of shared risk factors for adolescent psychiatric symptoms affect these dimensions in opposing directions, raising the importance of considering symptoms and their risk factors together in prevention and intervention efforts.

Concerts, bars, parties, and raves: Differential risk for drug use among high school seniors according to venue attendance.

Background: Nightlife attendance is an established risk factor for drug use, but studies have not focused on adolescent general population samples or compared risk according to type(s) of venues attended. We examined whether attendance of various types of venues was associated with drug use. Methods: Data were examined from an annual nationally representative survey of high school seniors in the US (2014-2019, N = 11,565). We determined whether past-year attendance of parties, concerts, bars or nightclubs, and raves or dance music events was associated with past-year drug use using mixed-effects logistic regression. Mall and movie attendance were examined as negative controls. Results: Compared to those who reported not attending specific venues, attending parties was associated with higher odds of using alcohol in particular (aOR = 5.03, 95% CI: 3.92-6.44). Attending concerts was associated with higher odds for use of alcohol, cannabis, ecstasy, and nonmedical use of prescription stimulants and opioids. All drugs examined were concentrated among those who attend bars, nightclubs, raves, and dance parties. Rave or dance party attendance was associated with higher odds for use of ecstasy (aOR = 3.71, 95% CI: 2.50-5.50) and methamphetamine (aOR = 4.92, 95% CI: 2.43-9.96) in particular, and bar or nightclub attendance was associated with higher odds of use of cocaine (aOR = 6.49, 95% CI: 4.37-9.63), ecstasy (aOR = 6.49, 95% CI: 4.54-9.27), and methamphetamine (aOR = 5.49, 95% CI: 2.57-11.72) in particular. Attending movies was associated with lower odds for use of cocaine and nonmedical prescription stimulant use. Conclusion: We determined differential risk of drug use depending on types of venues attended by adolescents.

Suicide and the agent-host-environment triad: leveraging surveillance sources to inform prevention.

Suicide in the US has increased in the last decade, across virtually every age and demographic group. Parallel increases have occurred in non-fatal self-harm as well. Research on suicide across the world has consistently demonstrated that suicide shares many properties with a communicable disease, including person-to-person transmission and point-source outbreaks. This essay illustrates the communicable nature of suicide through analogy to basic infectious disease principles, including evidence for transmission and vulnerability through the agent-host-environment triad. We describe how mathematical modeling, a suite of epidemiological methods, which the COVID-19 pandemic has brought into renewed focus, can and should be applied to suicide in order to understand the dynamics of transmission and to forecast emerging risk areas. We describe how new and innovative sources of data, including social media and search engine data, can be used to augment traditional suicide surveillance, as well as the opportunities and challenges for modeling suicide as a communicable disease process in an effort to guide clinical and public health suicide prevention efforts.

Trends in Ketamine Use, Exposures, and Seizures in the United States up to 2019.

Objectives. To determine whether there have been shifts in nonmedical ketamine use, poisonings ("exposures"), and seizures. Methods. We used generalized additive models to detect trends in past-year use (2006-2019), exposures (1991-2019), and seizures (2000-2019) involving ketamine in the United States. Results. There was a quarterly increase in self-reported past-year nonmedical ketamine use in 2006 to 2014 (Β = 0.21; P = .030) and an increase in 2015 to 2019 (Β = 0.29; P = .036), reaching a peak of 0.9% in late 2019. The rate of exposures increased from 1991 through 2019 (Β = 0.87; P = .006), and there was an increase to 1.1 exposures per 1 000 000 population in 2014, with rates remaining stable through 2019. The rate of ketamine seizures increased from 2000 through 2019 (Β = 2.27; P < .001), with seizures reaching a peak in 2019 at 3.2 per 1000 seizures. Conclusions. Indicators suggest that ketamine use and availability has increased, including before increased medical indications, but nonmedical use is still currently uncommon despite increased acceptance and media coverage. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(11):2046-2049. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306486).

Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.

BACKGROUND: Binge drinking among adolescents and young adults has changed over time, but patterns differ by age and gender. Identifying high-risk groups to target future efforts at reducing drinking in this population remains a public health priority. Forecasting methods can provide a better understanding of variation and determinants of future binge drinking prevalence. METHODS: We implemented regression-based forecasting models to estimate the prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among cohort groups of U.S. young adults, ages 18, 23-24, and 29-30 through 2040. Forecasting models were adjusted for covariates accounting for changes in demographic, Big-5 social roles (e.g., residential independence), and drinking norms and related substance use, to understand the drivers of forecasted binge drinking estimates. RESULTS: From the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecasted to decrease from 26% (95% CI: 20, 33%) (2011-15) to 11% (95% CI: 4, 27%) at age 18, decrease from 38% (95% CI: 30, 45%) (2006-2010) to 34% (95% CI: 18, 55%) at ages 23/24, and increase from 32% (95% CI: 25, 40%) (2001-2005) to 35% (95% CI: 16, 59%) at ages 29/30. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age. Estimated trends were partially explained by changing norms regarding drinking and other substance use, though these indirect effects explained less of the total trend as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding how covariates influence binge drinking trends can guide public health policies to leverage the most important determinants of future binge drinking to reduce the harm caused by binge drinking from adolescence to adulthood.

County Jail Incarceration Rates and County Mortality Rates in the United States, 1987-2016.

Objectives. To evaluate the relationship between changes in county jail incarceration rates and subsequent county mortality rates across the United States.Methods. We analyzed county jail incarceration rates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics from 1987 to 2016 for 1884 counties and mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics System. We fit 1-year-lagged quasi-Poisson 2-way fixed-effects models, controlling for unmeasured stable county characteristics, and measured time-varying confounders, including county poverty and crime rates.Results. A within-county increase in jail incarceration rates from the first to second quartile was associated with a 2.5% increase in mortality rates, adjusting for confounders (risk ratio [RR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02, 1.03). This association followed a dose-response relationship and was stronger for mortality among those aged 15 to 34 years (RR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.09).Conclusions. Within-county increases in jail incarceration rates are associated with increases in subsequent mortality rates after adjusting for important confounders.Public Health Implications. Our findings add to the growing body of empirical evidence of the harms of mass incarceration. The criminal justice reform and decarceration movements can use these findings as they develop strategies to end mass incarceration.

Is There a Recent Epidemic of Women's Drinking? A Critical Review of National Studies.

Alcohol consumption is increasing in the United States, as is alcohol-attributable mortality. Historically, men have had higher rates of alcohol consumption than women, though evidence for birth cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm suggests that gender differences may be diminishing. We review studies using U.S. national data that examined time trends in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm since 2008. Utilizing a historical-developmental perspective, here we synthesize and integrate the literature on birth cohort effects from varying developmental periods (i.e., adolescence, young adulthood, middle adulthood, and late adulthood), with a focus on gender differences in alcohol consumption. Findings suggest that recent trends in gender differences in alcohol outcomes are heterogeneous by developmental stage. Among adolescents and young adults, both males and females are rapidly decreasing alcohol consumption, binge and high-intensity drinking, and alcohol-related outcomes, with gender rates converging because males are decreasing consumption faster than females. This pattern does not hold among adults, however. In middle adulthood, consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol-related harms are increasing, driven largely by increases among women in their 30s and 40s. The trend of increases in consumption that are faster for women than for men appears to continue into older adult years (60 and older) across several studies. We conclude by addressing remaining gaps in the literature and offering directions for future research.

Alcohol Consumption in Later Life and Mortality in the United States: Results from 9 Waves of the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption in later life has increased in the past decade, and the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality is controversial. Recent studies suggest little, if any, health benefit to alcohol. Yet most rely on single-time point consumption assessments and minimal confounder adjustments. METHODS: We report on 16 years of follow-up from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohorts born 1931 to 1941 (N = 7,904, baseline mean age = 61, SD = 3.18). Respondents were queried about drinking frequency/quantity. Mortality was established via exit interviews and confirmed with the national death index. Time-varying confounders included but were not limited to household assets, smoking, body mass index, health/functioning, depression, chronic disease; time-invariant confounders included baseline age, education, sex, and race. RESULTS: After adjustment, current abstainers had the highest risk of subsequent mortality, consistent with sick quitters, and moderate (men: HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.91; women: HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.63 to 1.07) drinking was associated with a lower mortality rate compared with occasional drinking, though smokers and men evidenced less of an inverse association. Quantitative bias analyses indicated that omitted confounders would need to be associated with ~4-fold increases in mortality rates for men and ~9-fold increases for women to change the results. CONCLUSIONS: There are consistent associations between moderate/occasional drinking and lower mortality, though residual confounding remains a threat to validity. Continued efforts to conduct large-scale observational studies of alcohol consumption and mortality are needed to characterize the changing patterns of consumption in older age.

Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.

How Healthy Are Survey Respondents Compared with the General Population?: Using Survey-linked Death Records to Compare Mortality Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: National surveys are used to capture US health trends and set clinical guidelines, yet the sampling frame often includes those in noninstitutional households, potentially missing those most vulnerable for poor health. Declining response rates in national surveys also represent a challenge, and existing inputs to survey weights have limitations. We compared mortality rates between those who respond to surveys and the general population over time. METHODS: Survey respondents from 20 waves of the National Health Interview Survey from 1990 to 2009 who have been linked to death records through 31 December 2011 were included. For each cohort in the survey, we estimated their mortality rates along with that cohort's mortality rate in the census population using vital statistics records, and differences were examined using Poisson models. RESULTS: In all years, survey respondents had lower mortality rates compared with the general population when data were both weighted and unweighted. Among men, survey respondents in the weighted sample had 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.853, 0.868) times the mortality rate of the general population (among women, RR = 0.887; 95% confidence interval, 0.879, 0.895). Differences in mortality are evident along all points of the life course. Differences have remained relatively stable over time. CONCLUSION: Survey respondents have lower death rates than the general US population, suggesting that they are a systematically healthier source population. Incorporating nonhousehold samples and revised weighting strategies to account for sample frame exclusion and nonresponse may allow for more rigorous estimation of the US population's health.

Social Environments, Genetics, and Black-White Disparities in Infant Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Genes and environments often interplay to produce population health. However, in some instances, the scientific literature has favoured one explanation, underplaying the other, even in the absence of rigorous support. We examine parental race disparity on the risk of infant mortality to see if such an analysis might provide clues to understanding the extent to which genes and environment may shape perinatal risks. METHODS: We assessed parental racial disparities in infant mortality among singletons by analysing the risk of infant mortality among racially consonant vs. dissonant couples over time between 1989-1997 and 1998-2006 in the state of Michigan (n = 1 428 199). We calculated the degree of modification of the relation between maternal race and infant mortality by paternal race dynamically across the two time periods. RESULTS: Infant mortality among interracial couples decreased with time relative to white-white couples, while infant mortality among black-black couples increased with time after adjusting for socio-economic, demographic, and prenatal care differences. The degree to which paternal black race strengthened the relation between maternal black race and higher infant mortality risk relative to white mothers increased with time throughout our study. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from these data suggests that environmental factors likely play the greater role in explaining the parental race disparity and risk of infant mortality.