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BACKGROUND: The Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization (Dobbs) overrules precedents established by Roe v Wade and Planned Parenthood v Casey and allows states to individually regulate access to abortion care services. While many states have passed laws to protect access to abortion services since the ruling, the ruling has also triggered the enforcement of existing laws and the creation of new ones that ban or restrict abortion. In addition to denying patients the full spectrum of reproductive health care, one major concern in the medical community is how the ruling will undermine trust in the patient-clinician relationship by influencing perceptions of the privacy of patient health information. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to study the effect of recent abortion legislation on Twitter user engagement, sentiment, expressions of trust in clinicians, and privacy of health information. METHODS: We scraped tweets containing keywords of interest between January 1, 2020, and October 17, 2022, to capture tweets posted before and after the leak of the Supreme Court decision. We then trained a Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to select tweets pertinent to the topic of interest and performed a sentiment analysis using Robustly Optimized Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers Pre-training Approach model and a causal impact time series analysis to examine engagement and sentiment. In addition, we used a Word2Vec model to study the terms of interest against a latent trust dimension to capture how expressions of trust for our terms of interest changed over time and used term frequency, inverse-document frequency to measure the volume of tweets before and after the decision with respect to the negative and positive sentiments that map to our terms of interest. RESULTS: Our study revealed (1) a transient increase in the number of daily users by 576.86% (95% CI 545.34%-607.92%; P<.001), tweeting about abortion, health care, and privacy of health information postdecision leak; (2) a sustained and statistically significant decrease in the average daily sentiment on these topics by 19.81% (95% CI -22.98% to -16.59%; P=.001) postdecision leak; (3) a decrease in the association of the latent dimension of trust across most clinician-related and health information-related terms of interest; (4) an increased frequency of tweets with these clinician-related and health information-related terms and concomitant negative sentiment in the postdecision leak period. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that the Dobbs ruling has consequences for health systems and reproductive health care that extend beyond denying patients access to the full spectrum of reproductive health services. The finding of a decrease in the expression of trust in clinicians and health information-related terms provides evidence to support advocacy and initiatives that proactively address concerns of trust in health systems and services.
Subject(s)
Abortion, Induced , Social Media , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Privacy , Trust , AttitudeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As the number of COVID-19 cases increased precipitously in the United States, policy makers and health officials marshalled their pandemic responses. As the economic impacts multiplied, anecdotal reports noted the increased use of web-based crowdfunding to defray these costs. OBJECTIVE: We examined the web-based crowdfunding response in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States to understand the incidence of initiation of COVID-19-related campaigns and compare them to non-COVID-19-related campaigns. METHODS: On May 16, 2020, we extracted all available data available on US campaigns that contained narratives and were created between January 1 and May 10, 2020, on GoFundMe. We identified the subset of COVID-19-related campaigns using keywords relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic. We explored the incidence of COVID-19-related campaigns by geography, by category, and over time, and we compared the characteristics of the campaigns to those of non-COVID-19-related campaigns after March 11, when the pandemic was declared. We then used a natural language processing algorithm to cluster campaigns by narrative content using overlapping keywords. RESULTS: We found that there was a substantial increase in overall GoFundMe web-based crowdfunding campaigns in March, largely attributable to COVID-19-related campaigns. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic persisted and progressed, the number of campaigns per COVID-19 case declined more than tenfold across all states. The states with the earliest disease burden had the fewest campaigns per case, indicating a lack of a case-dependent response. COVID-19-related campaigns raised more money, had a longer narrative description, and were more likely to be shared on Facebook than other campaigns in the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Web-based crowdfunding appears to be a stopgap for only a minority of campaigners. The novelty of an emergency likely impacts both campaign initiation and crowdfunding success, as it reflects the affective response of a community. Crowdfunding activity likely serves as an early signal for emerging needs and societal sentiment for communities in acute distress that could be used by governments and aid organizations to guide disaster relief and policy.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Crowdsourcing/statistics & numerical data , Financial Support , COVID-19/economics , Cost of Illness , Cross-Sectional Studies , Crowdsourcing/economics , Government , Humans , Narration , Natural Language Processing , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Despite focus on preventing 30-day readmissions, early readmissions (within 7 days of discharge) may be more preventable than later readmissions (8-30 days). We assessed how well a previously validated 30-day EHR-based readmission prediction model predicts 7-day readmissions and compared differences in strength of predictors. METHODS: We conducted an observational study on adult hospitalizations from 6 diverse hospitals in North Texas using a 50-50 split-sample derivation and validation approach. We re-derived model coefficients for the same predictors as in the original 30-day model to optimize prediction of 7-day readmissions. We then compared the discrimination and calibration of the 7-day model to the 30-day model to assess model performance. To examine the changes in the point estimates between the two models, we evaluated the percent changes in coefficients. RESULTS: Of 32,922 index hospitalizations among unique patients, 4.4% had a 7-day admission and 12.7% had a 30-day readmission. Our original 30-day model had modestly lower discrimination for predicting 7-day vs. any 30-day readmission (C-statistic of 0.66 vs. 0.69, p ≤ 0.001). Our re-derived 7-day model had similar discrimination (C-statistic of 0.66, p = 0.38), but improved calibration. For the re-derived 7-day model, discharge day factors were more predictive of early readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive. CONCLUSION: A previously validated 30-day readmission model can also be used as a stopgap to predict 7-day readmissions as model performance did not substantially change. However, strength of predictors differed between the 7-day and 30-day model; characteristics at discharge were more predictive of 7-day readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive. Improvements in predicting early 7-day readmissions will likely require new risk factors proximal to day of discharge.
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Hospitalization , Patient Readmission , Aged , Female , Forecasting , Hospitals , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Reference Standards , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Texas , United StatesABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) is a common health problem worldwide, and up to 10% of adult patients with incidental IDA may have gastrointestinal cancer. A diagnosis of IDA can be established through a combination of laboratory tests, but it is often underrecognized until a patient becomes symptomatic. Based on advances in machine learning, we hypothesized that we could reduce the time to diagnosis by developing an IDA prediction model. Our goal was to develop 3 neural networks by using retrospective longitudinal outpatient laboratory data to predict the risk of IDA 3 to 6 months before traditional diagnosis. METHODS: We analyzed retrospective outpatient electronic health record data between 2009 and 2020 from an academic medical center in northern Texas. We included laboratory features from 30,603 patients to develop 3 types of neural networks: artificial neural networks, long short-term memory cells, and gated recurrent units. The classifiers were trained using the Adam Optimizer across 200 random training-validation splits. We calculated accuracy, area under the receiving operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity in the testing split. RESULTS: Although all models demonstrated comparable performance, the gated recurrent unit model outperformed the other 2, achieving an accuracy of 0.83, an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve of 0.89, a sensitivity of 0.75, and a specificity of 0.85 across 200 epochs. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showcase the feasibility of employing deep learning techniques for early prediction of IDA in the outpatient setting based on sequences of laboratory data, offering a substantial lead time for clinical intervention.
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Anemia, Iron-Deficiency , Deep Learning , Humans , Anemia, Iron-Deficiency/diagnosis , Retrospective Studies , Female , Middle Aged , Male , Adult , Aged , Neural Networks, Computer , Early Diagnosis , Electronic Health Records , Sensitivity and SpecificityABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Elucidating the native structure of a protein molecule from its sequence of amino acids, a problem known as de novo structure prediction, is a long standing challenge in computational structural biology. Difficulties in silico arise due to the high dimensionality of the protein conformational space and the ruggedness of the associated energy surface. The issue of multiple minima is a particularly troublesome hallmark of energy surfaces probed with current energy functions. In contrast to the true energy surface, these surfaces are weakly-funneled and rich in comparably deep minima populated by non-native structures. For this reason, many algorithms seek to be inclusive and obtain a broad view of the low-energy regions through an ensemble of low-energy (decoy) conformations. Conformational diversity in this ensemble is key to increasing the likelihood that the native structure has been captured. METHODS: We propose an evolutionary search approach to address the multiple-minima problem in decoy sampling for de novo structure prediction. Two population-based evolutionary search algorithms are presented that follow the basic approach of treating conformations as individuals in an evolving population. Coarse graining and molecular fragment replacement are used to efficiently obtain protein-like child conformations from parents. Potential energy is used both to bias parent selection and determine which subset of parents and children will be retained in the evolving population. The effect on the decoy ensemble of sampling minima directly is measured by additionally mapping a conformation to its nearest local minimum before considering it for retainment. The resulting memetic algorithm thus evolves not just a population of conformations but a population of local minima. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results show that both algorithms are effective in terms of sampling conformations in proximity of the known native structure. The additional minimization is shown to be key to enhancing sampling capability and obtaining a diverse ensemble of decoy conformations, circumventing premature convergence to sub-optimal regions in the conformational space, and approaching the native structure with proximity that is comparable to state-of-the-art decoy sampling methods. The results are shown to be robust and valid when using two representative state-of-the-art coarse-grained energy functions.
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Computational Biology/methods , Protein Conformation , Proteins/chemistry , Algorithms , Computer Simulation , Models, Molecular , Protein Structure, Secondary , ThermodynamicsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: An undiagnosed HIV infection remains a public health challenge. In the digital era, social media and digital health communication have been widely used to accelerate research, improve consumer health, and facilitate public health interventions including HIV prevention. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate and compare the projected cost and efficacy of different simulated Facebook (FB) advertisement (ad) approaches targeting at-risk populations for HIV based on new HIV diagnosis rates by age group and geographic region in the United States. METHODS: We used the FB ad platform to simulate (without actually launching) an automatically placed video ad for a 10-day duration targeting at-risk populations for HIV. We compared the estimated total ad audience, daily reach, daily clicks, and cost. We tested ads for the age group of 13 to 24 years (in which undiagnosed HIV is most prevalent), other age groups, US geographic regions and states, and different campaign budgets. We then estimated the ad cost per new HIV diagnosis based on HIV positivity rates and the average health care industry conversion rate. RESULTS: On April 20, 2021, the potential reach of targeted ads to at-risk populations for HIV in the United States was approximately 16 million for all age groups and 3.3 million for age group 13 to 24 years, with the highest potential reach in California, Texas, Florida, and New York. When using different FB ad budgets, the daily reach and daily clicks per US dollar followed a cumulative distribution curve of an exponential function. Using multiple US $10 ten-day ads, the cost per every new HIV diagnosis ranged from US $13.09 to US $37.82, with an average cost of US $19.45. In contrast, a 1-time national ad had a cost of US $72.76 to US $452.25 per new HIV diagnosis (mean US $166.79). The estimated cost per new HIV diagnosis ranged from US $13.96 to US $55.10 for all age groups (highest potential reach and lowest cost in the age groups 20-29 and 30-39 years) and from US $12.55 to US $24.67 for all US regions (with the highest potential reach of 6.2 million and the lowest cost per new HIV diagnosis at US $12.55 in the US South). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted personalized FB ads are a potential means to encourage at-risk populations for HIV to be tested, especially those aged 20 to 39 years in the US South, where the disease burden and potential reach on FB are high and the ad cost per new HIV diagnosis is low. Considering the cost efficiency of ads, the combined cost of multiple low-cost ads may be more economical than a single high-cost ad, suggesting that local FB ads could be more cost-effective than a single large-budget national FB ad.
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We investigate parents' and guardians' digital skills and the extent of their development in the context of the spread of the Corona epidemic. In addition, we sought to explore the differences in digital skills between parents and their employment status, age, and responsibility in teaching children. We sought to rely on the descriptive-analytical approach and prepared a scale of eight theoretical dimensions with the participation of 250 students' Saudi parents. The application of the study was by online submission form (via Edit Submission). Our findings showed that there was a discrepancy in the performance of the sample, which was very high in the dimensions of operational skills, instrumental skills, and cognitive constructivism skills. There were also differences between the effect of computers on the instrumental skills and cognitive constructivism skills of the parents. Parents' dependence on alternative digital sources in exploring for information, formulating knowledge, manipulating it, and criticizing. The learner can reach the cognitive level in a more flexible manner, which allows him to gain learning objectives. The knowledge navigation can be developed because of different online outdoor exercises and software familiar. This requires self-organization to search for appropriate knowledge to use in the renewal of the cognitive structure.
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BACKGROUND: With the global continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the large-scale administration of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is crucial to achieve herd immunity and curtail further spread of the virus, but success is contingent on public understanding and vaccine uptake. We aim to understand public perception about vaccines for COVID-19 through the wide-scale, organic discussion on Twitter. METHODS: This cross-sectional observational study included Twitter posts matching the search criteria (('covid*' OR 'coronavirus') AND 'vaccine') posted during vaccine development from February 1st through December 11th, 2020. These COVID-19 vaccine related posts were analyzed with topic modeling, sentiment and emotion analysis, and demographic inference of users to provide insight into the evolution of public attitudes throughout the study period. FINDINGS: We evaluated 2,287,344 English tweets from 948,666 user accounts. Individuals represented 87.9 % (n = 834,224) of user accounts. Of individuals, men (n = 560,824) outnumbered women (n = 273,400) by 2:1 and 39.5 % (n = 329,776) of individuals were ≥40 years old. Daily mean sentiment fluctuated congruent with news events, but overall trended positively. Trust, anticipation, and fear were the three most predominant emotions; while fear was the most predominant emotion early in the study period, trust outpaced fear from April 2020 onward. Fear was more prevalent in tweets by individuals (26.3 % vs. organizations 19.4 %; p < 0.001), specifically among women (28.4 % vs. males 25.4 %; p < 0.001). Multiple topics had a monthly trend towards more positive sentiment. Tweets comparing COVID-19 to the influenza vaccine had strongly negative early sentiment but improved over time. INTERPRETATION: This study successfully explores sentiment, emotion, topics, and user demographics to elucidate important trends in public perception about COVID-19 vaccines. While public perception trended positively over the study period, some trends, especially within certain topic and demographic clusters, are concerning for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. These insights can provide targets for educational interventions and opportunity for continued real-time monitoring.
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COVID-19 , Social Media , Male , Humans , Female , Adult , COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19/prevention & control , Public Opinion , Cross-Sectional Studies , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Throughout the pandemic, children with COVID-19 have experienced hospitalization, ICU admission, invasive respiratory support, and death. Using a multisite, national dataset, we investigate risk factors associated with these outcomes in children with COVID-19. METHODS: Our data source (Optum deidentified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record Dataset) included children aged 0 to 18 years testing positive for COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and January 20, 2022. Using ordinal logistic regression, we identified factors associated with an ordinal outcome scale: nonhospitalization, hospitalization, or a severe composite outcome (ICU, intensive respiratory support, death). To contrast hospitalization for COVID-19 and incidental positivity on hospitalization, we secondarily identified patient factors associated with hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 165 437 children with COVID-19, 3087 (1.8%) were hospitalized without complication, 2954 (1.8%) experienced ICU admission and/or intensive respiratory support, and 31 (0.02%) died. We grouped patients by age: 0 to 4 years old (35 088), and 5 to 11 years old (75 574), 12 to 18 years old (54 775). Factors positively associated with worse outcomes were preexisting comorbidities and residency in the Southern United States. In 0- to 4-year-old children, there was a nonlinear association between age and worse outcomes, with worse outcomes in 0- to 2-year-old children. In 5- to 18-year-old patients, vaccination was protective. Findings were similar in our secondary analysis of hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19, though region effects were no longer observed. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with COVID-19, preexisting comorbidities and residency in the Southern United States were positively associated with worse outcomes, whereas vaccination was negatively associated. Our study population was highly insured; future studies should evaluate underinsured populations to confirm generalizability.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Child , United States/epidemiology , Child, Preschool , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Incidence , SARS-CoV-2 , Hospitalization , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
We previously developed and validated a model to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and found that the variables with the highest importance included a history of chronic kidney disease and markers of inflammation. Here, we assessed model performance during periods when COVID-19 cases were attributable almost exclusively to individual variants. Electronic Health Record data were obtained from patients admitted to 19 hospitals. The outcome was hospital-acquired AKI. The model, previously built in an Inception Cohort, was evaluated in Delta and Omicron cohorts using model discrimination and calibration methods. A total of 9104 patients were included, with 5676 in the Inception Cohort, 2461 in the Delta cohort, and 967 in the Omicron cohort. The Delta Cohort was younger with fewer comorbidities, while Omicron patients had lower rates of intensive care compared with the other cohorts. AKI occurred in 13.7% of the Inception Cohort, compared with 13.8% of Delta and 14.4% of Omicron (Omnibus p = 0.84). Compared with the Inception Cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76-0.80), the model showed stable discrimination in the Delta (AUC: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.75-0.80, p = 0.89) and Omicron (AUC: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.70-0.79, p = 0.37) cohorts. Estimated calibration index values were 0.02 (95% CI: 0.01-0.07) for Inception, 0.08 (95% CI: 0.05-0.17) for Delta, and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.04-0.47) for Omicron cohorts, p = 0.10 for both Delta and Omicron vs Inception. Our model for predicting hospital-acquired AKI remained accurate in different COVID-19 variants, suggesting that risk factors for AKI have not substantially evolved across variants.
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Acute Kidney Injury , COVID-19 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , HospitalsABSTRACT
Background: Peri-diagnostic vaccination contemporaneous with SARS-CoV-2 infection might boost antiviral immunity and improve patient outcomes. We investigated, among previously unvaccinated patients, whether vaccination (with the Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J vaccines) during the week before or after a positive COVID-19 test was associated with altered 30-day patient outcomes. Methods: Using a deidentified longitudinal EHR repository, we selected all previously unvaccinated adults who initially tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between December 11, 2020 (the date of vaccine emergency use approval) and December 19, 2021. We assessed whether vaccination between days -7 and +7 of a positive test affected outcomes. The primary measure was progression to a more severe disease outcome within 30 days of diagnosis using the following hierarchy: hospitalization, intensive care, or death. Results: Among 60,031 hospitalized patients, 543 (0.91%) were initially vaccinated at the time of diagnosis and 59,488 (99.09%) remained unvaccinated during the period of interest. Among 316,337 nonhospitalized patients, 2,844 (0.90%) were initially vaccinated and 313,493 (99.1%) remained unvaccinated. In both analyses, individuals receiving vaccines were older, more often located in the northeast, more commonly insured by Medicare, and more burdened by comorbidities. Among previously unvaccinated patients, there was no association between receiving an initial vaccine dose between days -7 and +7 of diagnosis and progression to more severe disease within 30 days compared to patients who did not receive vaccines. Conclusions: Immunization during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection does not appear associated with clinical progression during the acute infectious period.
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Background: Studies on COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) have had limitations. Further investigations on risk factors and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection among PWH are needed. Methods: This retrospective cohort study leveraged the national OPTUM COVID-19 data set to investigate factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity among PWH and risk factors for severe outcomes, including hospitalization, intensive care unit stays, and death. A subset analysis was conducted to examine HIV-specific variables. Multiple variable logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates. Results: Of 43 173 PWH included in this study, 6472 had a positive SARS-CoV-2 result based on a polymerase chain reaction test or antigen test. For PWH with SARS-CoV-2 positivity, higher odds were found for those who were younger (18-49 years), Hispanic White, African American, from the US South, uninsured, and a noncurrent smoker and had a higher body mass index and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index. For PWH with severe outcomes, higher odds were identified for those who were SARS-CoV-2 positive, older, from the US South, receiving Medicaid/Medicare or uninsured, a current smoker, and underweight and had a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index. In a subset analysis including PWH with HIV care variables (n = 5098), those with unsuppressed HIV viral load, a low CD4 count, and no antiretroviral therapy had higher odds of severe outcomes. Conclusions: This large US study found significant ethnic, racial, and geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection among PWH. Chronic comorbidities, older age, lower body mass index, and smoking were associated with severe outcomes among PWH during the COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with severe outcomes, but once we adjusted for HIV care variables, SARS-CoV-2 was no longer significant; however, low CD4 count, high viral load, and lack of antiretroviral therapy had higher odds of severe outcomes.
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INTRODUCTION: The use of social media during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an "infodemic" of mis- and disinformation with potentially grave consequences. To explore means of counteracting disinformation, we analyzed tweets containing the hashtags #Scamdemic and #Plandemic. METHODS: Using a Twitter scraping tool called twint, we collected 419,269 English-language tweets that contained "#Scamdemic" or "#Plandemic" posted in 2020. Using the Twitter application-programming interface, we extracted the same tweets (by tweet ID) with additional user metadata. We explored descriptive statistics of tweets including their content and user profiles, analyzed sentiments and emotions, performed topic modeling, and determined tweet availability in both datasets. RESULTS: After removal of retweets, replies, non-English tweets, or duplicate tweets, 40,081 users tweeted 227,067 times using our selected hashtags. The mean weekly sentiment was overall negative for both hashtags. One in five users who used these hashtags were suspended by Twitter by January 2021. Suspended accounts had an average of 610 followers and an average of 6.7 tweets per user, while active users had an average of 472 followers and an average of 5.4 tweets per user. The most frequent tweet topic was "Complaints against mandates introduced during the pandemic" (79,670 tweets), which included complaints against masks, social distancing, and closures. DISCUSSION: While social media has democratized speech, it also permits users to disseminate potentially unverified or misleading information that endangers people's lives and public health interventions. Characterizing tweets and users that use hashtags associated with COVID-19 pandemic denial allowed us to understand the extent of misinformation. With the preponderance of inaccessible original tweets, we concluded that posters were in denial of the COVID-19 pandemic and sought to disperse related mis- or disinformation resulting in suspension. CONCLUSION: Leveraging 227,067 tweets with the hashtags #scamdemic and #plandemic in 2020, we were able to elucidate important trends in public disinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Social Media , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Disinformation , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: There is a need for a systematic method to implement the World Health Organization's Clinical Progression Scale (WHO-CPS), an ordinal clinical severity score for coronavirus disease 2019 patients, to electronic health record (EHR) data. We discuss our process of developing guiding principles mapping EHR data to WHO-CPS scores across multiple institutions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using WHO-CPS as a guideline, we developed the technical blueprint to map EHR data to ordinal clinical severity scores. We applied our approach to data from 2 medical centers. RESULTS: Our method was able to classify clinical severity for 100% of patient days for 2756 patient encounters across 2 institutions. DISCUSSION: Implementing new clinical scales can be challenging; strong understanding of health system data architecture was integral to meet the clinical intentions of the WHO-CPS. CONCLUSION: We describe a detailed blueprint for how to apply the WHO-CPS scale to patient data from the EHR.
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COVID-19 , Electronic Health Records , Databases, Factual , Humans , Inpatients , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
Rationale & Objective: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, but validated, predictive models for AKI are lacking. We aimed to develop the best predictive model for AKI in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and assess its performance over time with the emergence of vaccines and the Delta variant. Study Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Setting & Participants: Hospitalized patients with a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction result between March 1, 2020, and August 20, 2021 at 19 hospitals in Texas. Exposures: Comorbid conditions, baseline laboratory data, inflammatory biomarkers. Outcomes: AKI defined by KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) creatinine criteria. Analytical Approach: Three nested models for AKI were built in a development cohort and validated in 2 out-of-time cohorts. Model discrimination and calibration measures were compared among cohorts to assess performance over time. Results: Of 10,034 patients, 5,676, 2,917, and 1,441 were in the development, validation 1, and validation 2 cohorts, respectively, of whom 776 (13.7%), 368 (12.6%), and 179 (12.4%) developed AKI, respectively (P = 0.26). Patients in the validation cohort 2 had fewer comorbid conditions and were younger than those in the development cohort or validation cohort 1 (mean age, 54 ± 16.8 years vs 61.4 ± 17.5 and 61.7 ± 17.3 years, respectively, P < 0.001). The validation cohort 2 had higher median high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level (81.7 mg/L) versus the development cohort (74.5 mg/L; P < 0.01) and higher median ferritin level (696 ng/mL) versus both the development cohort (444 ng/mL) and validation cohort 1 (496 ng/mL; P < 0.001). The final model, which added high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, ferritin, and D-dimer levels, had an area under the curve of 0.781 (95% CI, 0.763-0.799). Compared with the development cohort, discrimination by area under the curve (validation 1: 0.785 [0.760-0.810], P = 0.79, and validation 2: 0.754 [0.716-0.795], P = 0.53) and calibration by estimated calibration index (validation 1: 0.116 [0.041-0.281], P = 0.11, and validation 2: 0.081 [0.045-0.295], P = 0.11) showed stable performance over time. Limitations: Potential billing and coding bias. Conclusions: We developed and externally validated a model to accurately predict AKI in patients with coronavirus disease 2019. The performance of the model withstood changes in practice patterns and virus variants.
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OBJECTIVE: To create and validate a simple and transferable machine learning model from electronic health record data to accurately predict clinical deterioration in patients with covid-19 across institutions, through use of a novel paradigm for model development and code sharing. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: One US hospital during 2015-21 was used for model training and internal validation. External validation was conducted on patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 at 12 other US medical centers during 2020-21. PARTICIPANTS: 33 119 adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with respiratory distress or covid-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: An ensemble of linear models was trained on the development cohort to predict a composite outcome of clinical deterioration within the first five days of hospital admission, defined as in-hospital mortality or any of three treatments indicating severe illness: mechanical ventilation, heated high flow nasal cannula, or intravenous vasopressors. The model was based on nine clinical and personal characteristic variables selected from 2686 variables available in the electronic health record. Internal and external validation performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the expected calibration error-the difference between predicted risk and actual risk. Potential bed day savings were estimated by calculating how many bed days hospitals could save per patient if low risk patients identified by the model were discharged early. RESULTS: 9291 covid-19 related hospital admissions at 13 medical centers were used for model validation, of which 1510 (16.3%) were related to the primary outcome. When the model was applied to the internal validation cohort, it achieved an AUROC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.84) and an expected calibration error of 0.01 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.02). Performance was consistent when validated in the 12 external medical centers (AUROC range 0.77-0.84), across subgroups of sex, age, race, and ethnicity (AUROC range 0.78-0.84), and across quarters (AUROC range 0.73-0.83). Using the model to triage low risk patients could potentially save up to 7.8 bed days per patient resulting from early discharge. CONCLUSION: A model to predict clinical deterioration was developed rapidly in response to the covid-19 pandemic at a single hospital, was applied externally without the sharing of data, and performed well across multiple medical centers, patient subgroups, and time periods, showing its potential as a tool for use in optimizing healthcare resources.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Clinical Decision Rules , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Machine Learning , Risk Assessment/methods , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Area Under Curve , Clinical Deterioration , Electronic Health Records , Female , Hospitals , Humans , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Young AdultABSTRACT
We used topic modeling, subjectivity analysis, and social graph theory to analyze 11 944 tweets relating to IDWeek 2020. Twitter is a rich medium that can successfully disseminate knowledge and allow users to engage in social networks during a medical conference, despite a virtual format.
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Social media platforms allow users to share news, ideas, thoughts, and opinions on a global scale. Data processing methods allow researchers to automate the collection and interpretation of social media posts for efficient and valuable disease surveillance. Data derived from social media and internet search trends have been used successfully for monitoring and forecasting disease outbreaks such as Zika, Dengue, MERS, and Ebola viruses. More recently, data derived from social media have been used to monitor and model disease incidence during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We discuss the use of social media for disease surveillance.
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The rapidly changing situation characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a need for new epidemic modeling strategies. Due to an absence of computationally efficient models robust to paucity of reliable data, we developed NetworkSIR, a model capable of making predictions when only the approximate population density is known. We then extend NetworkSIR to capture the effect of indirect disease spread on the progression of an epidemic (EnvironmentalSIR).
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , HumansABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Social distancing policies are key in curtailing severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread, but their effectiveness is heavily contingent on public understanding and collective adherence. We studied public perception of social distancing through organic, large-scale discussion on Twitter. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. METHODS: Between March 27 and April 10, 2020, we retrieved English-only tweets matching two trending social distancing hashtags, #socialdistancing and #stayathome. We analyzed the tweets using natural language processing and machine-learning models, and we conducted a sentiment analysis to identify emotions and polarity. We evaluated the subjectivity of tweets and estimated the frequency of discussion of social distancing rules. We then identified clusters of discussion using topic modeling and associated sentiments. RESULTS: We studied a sample of 574,903 tweets. For both hashtags, polarity was positive (mean, 0.148; SD, 0.290); only 15% of tweets had negative polarity. Tweets were more likely to be objective (median, 0.40; IQR, 0-0.6) with ~30% of tweets labeled as completely objective (labeled as 0 in range from 0 to 1). Approximately half of tweets (50.4%) primarily expressed joy and one-fifth expressed fear and surprise. Each correlated well with topic clusters identified by frequency including leisure and community support (ie, joy), concerns about food insecurity and quarantine effects (ie, fear), and unpredictability of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its implications (ie, surprise). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the positive sentiment, preponderance of objective tweets, and topics supporting coping mechanisms, we concluded that Twitter users generally supported social distancing in the early stages of their implementation.