Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Infection After Liver Transplantation: A Multinational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients colonized with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are at higher risk of developing CRE infection after liver transplantation (LT), with associated high morbidity and mortality. Prediction model for CRE infection after LT among carriers could be useful to target preventive strategies. METHODS: Multinational multicenter cohort study of consecutive adult patients underwent LT and colonized with CRE before or after LT, from January 2010 to December 2017. Risk factors for CRE infection were analyzed by univariate analysis and by Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model, with death as competing event. A nomogram to predict 30- and 60-day CRE infection risk was created. RESULTS: A total of 840 LT recipients found to be colonized with CRE before (n = 203) or after (n = 637) LT were enrolled. CRE infection was diagnosed in 250 (29.7%) patients within 19 (interquartile range [IQR], 9-42) days after LT. Pre- and post-LT colonization, multisite post-LT colonization, prolonged mechanical ventilation, acute renal injury, and surgical reintervention were retained in the prediction model. Median 30- and 60-day predicted risk was 15% (IQR, 11-24) and 21% (IQR, 15-33), respectively. Discrimination and prediction accuracy for CRE infection was acceptable on derivation (area under the curve [AUC], 74.6; Brier index, 16.3) and bootstrapped validation dataset (AUC, 73.9; Brier index, 16.6). Decision-curve analysis suggested net benefit of model-directed intervention over default strategies (treat all, treat none) when CRE infection probability exceeded 10%. The risk prediction model is freely available as mobile application at https://idbologna.shinyapps.io/CREPostOLTPredictionModel/. CONCLUSIONS: Our clinical prediction tool could enable better targeting interventions for CRE infection after transplant.

Severe Strongyloides stercoralis infection in kidney transplant recipients: A multicenter case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Severe Strongyloides stercoralis infection in kidney transplant recipients is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, although little is known about the risk factors for such infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This was a retrospective, multicenter, case-control study in which we assessed the risk factors for and clinical outcomes of severe S. stercoralis infections in kidney transplant recipients in Brazil. We included 138 kidney transplant recipients: 46 cases and 92 controls. Among the cases, the median number of days from transplantation to diagnosis was 117 (interquartile range [IQR], 73.5-965) and the most common clinical findings were gastrointestinal symptoms (in 78.3%) and respiratory symptoms (in 39.1%), whereas fever and eosinophilia were seen in only 32.6% and 43.5%, respectively. The 30-day all-cause mortality among the cases was 28.3% overall and was significantly higher among the cases of infection occurring within the first three months after transplantation (47% vs. 17.2%, P = 0.04). The independent risk factors were receiving a transplant from a deceased donor (odds ratio [OR] = 6.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.05-18.5), a history of bacterial infection (OR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.2-7.5), and a cumulative corticosteroid dose (OR = 1.005, 95% CI = 1.001-1.009). The independent predictors of mortality were respiratory failure (OR = 98.33, 95% CI = 4.46-2169.77) and concomitant bacteremia (OR = 413.00, 95% CI = 4.83-35316.61). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Severe S. stercoralis infections are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality after kidney transplantation. In endemic areas, such infection may occur late after transplantation, although it seems to be more severe when it occurs earlier after transplantation. Specific risk factors and clinical manifestations can identify patients at risk, who should receive prophylaxis or early treatment.