Exogenous factors matter when interpreting the results of an impact evaluation: a case study of rainfall and child health programme intervention in Rwanda.

OBJECTIVE: Public health interventions are often implemented at large scale, and their evaluation seems to be difficult because they are usually multiple and their pathways to effect are complex and subject to modification by contextual factors. We assessed whether controlling for rainfall-related variables altered estimates of the efficacy of a health programme in rural Rwanda and have a quantifiable effect on an intervention evaluation outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective quasi-experimental study using previously collected cross-sectional data from the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 2010 DHS oversampled data, monthly rainfall data collected from meteorological stations over the same period, and modelled output of long-term rainfall averages, soil moisture, and rain water run-off. Difference-in-difference models were used. RESULTS: Rainfall factors confounded the PIH intervention impact evaluation. When we adjusted our estimates of programme effect by controlling for a variety of rainfall variables, several effectiveness estimates changed by 10% or more. The analyses that did not adjust for rainfall-related variables underestimated the intervention effect on the prevalence of ARI by 14.3%, fever by 52.4% and stunting by 10.2%. Conversely, the unadjusted analysis overestimated the intervention's effect on diarrhoea by 56.5% and wasting by 80%. CONCLUSION: Rainfall-related patterns have a quantifiable effect on programme evaluation results and highlighted the importance and complexity of controlling for contextual factors in quasi-experimental design evaluations.

Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. METHODS: We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. RESULTS: Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. CONCLUSION: Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

Competing Narratives of Hospital Closure: A Case Study of Memorial Hospital of Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND: Hospital closures have become commonplace in the United States but remain controversial. Memorial Hospital of Rhode Island was a 294-bed hospital in a disadvantaged community that closed in 2018 amid falling patient volume and rising costs. METHODS: Immersion/crystallization method of qualitative analysis was employed in reviewing semi-structured interviews, public testimony, and public documents. Themes that emerged were organized into discrete narrative typographies, represented by illustrative quotations. RESULTS: Three main narratives of the hospital's closure arose: 1.) financial inevitability; 2.) corporate mismanagement; and 3.) systems realignment. CONCLUSIONS: Overlapping and discrepant narratives of the closure demonstrated the complicated role of hospitals within communities and health systems. Acknowledgment of both the hospital's financial straits and the negative impacts of closure on a marginalized community demonstrate the malalignment of economic incentives and the public good in the state's health care system. This case study may offer lessons for other communities facing or experiencing hospital closure.

Training Toward a Movement: Career Development Insights From the First 7 Years of a Global Health Equity Residency.

BACKGROUND: The Doris and Howard Hiatt Residency in Global Health Equity and Internal Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital provides global health training during residency, but little is known about its effect on participants' selection of a global health career. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the perceptions of residency graduates from the first 7 classes to better understand the outcomes of this education program, and the challenges faced by participants. METHODS: We interviewed 27 of 31 physicians (87%) who graduated from the program between 2003 and 2013 using a convergent mixed-methods design and a structured interview tool that included both open-ended and forced-choice questions. We independently coded and analyzed qualitative data using a case study design, and then wove together the qualitative and quantitative data at the interpretation phase using a parallel convergent mixed-methods design. RESULTS: Entering a career focused on social justice was cited as the most common motivator for selecting to train in global health. Most respondents (83%, 20 of 24) reported they were able to achieve this goal despite structural barriers, such as lower salaries compared with peers, a lack of mentors in the field, poorly structured and undersupported career pathways at their institutions, and unique work-life challenges. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of graduates from 1 dedicated residency program in global health and internal medicine reported they were able to continue to engage in global health activities after graduation and, despite identified challenges, reported that they planned long-term careers in global health.