ABSTRACT
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.
Subject(s)
Geographic Mapping , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Female , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Public Health/trends , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50-60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15-49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence. METHODS: We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15-49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas. CONCLUSIONS: Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
Subject(s)
Circumcision, Male/trends , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , Africa , Female , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes. METHODS: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access. RESULTS: We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children. CONCLUSIONS: Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.
Subject(s)
Diarrhea/therapy , Fluid Therapy , Health Policy/trends , Administration, Oral , Bicarbonates/therapeutic use , Child , Child Mortality/history , Child Mortality/trends , Child, Preschool , Diarrhea/epidemiology , Female , Fluid Therapy/history , Fluid Therapy/methods , Fluid Therapy/statistics & numerical data , Fluid Therapy/trends , Glucose/therapeutic use , Health Policy/history , History, 20th Century , History, 21st Century , Humans , Infant , Male , Mali/epidemiology , Potassium Chloride/therapeutic use , Senegal/epidemiology , Severity of Illness Index , Sierra Leone/epidemiology , Sodium Chloride/therapeutic use , Spatial Analysis , Time Factors , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In low-income settings, community health workers (CHWs) are frequently the first point of contact for newborns. Mobile technology may aid health workers in classifying illness and providing referral and management guidance for newborn care. This study evaluates the potential for mobile health technology to improve diagnosis and case management of newborns in Bangladesh. METHODS: A mobile application based on Bangladesh's Comprehensive Newborn Care Package national guidelines (mCNCP) was developed to aid CHWs in identifying and managing small and sick infants. After a 2-day training, CHWs assessed newborns at Sylhet Osmani Medical College Hospital and in the Projahnmo research site (Sylhet, Bangladesh) using either mCNCP or a comparable paper form (pCNCP), similar to standard IMCI-formatted paper forms. CHWs were randomized to conduct a block of ~ 6 newborn assessments starting with either mCNCP or pCNCP, then switched to the alternate method. Physicians using mCNCP served as gold standard assessors. CHW performance with mCNCP and pCNCP were compared using chi-squared tests of independence for equality of proportions, and logistic regressions clustered by CHW. RESULTS: Two hundred seven total CHW assessments were completed on 101 enrolled infants. mCNCP assessments were more often fully completed and completed faster than pCNCP assessments (100% vs 23.8%, p < 0.001; 17.5 vs 23.6 min; p < 0.001). mCNCP facilitated calculations of respiratory rate, temperature, and gestational age. CHWs using mCNCP were more likely to identify small newborns (Odds Ratio (OR): 20.8, Confidence Interval (CI): (7.1, 60.8), p < 0.001), and to correctly classify 7 out of 16 newborn conditions evaluated, including severe weight loss (OR: 13.1, CI: (4.6, 37.5), p < 0.001), poor movement (OR: 6.6, CI: (2.3, 19.3), p = 0.001), hypothermia (OR: 14.9, CI: (2.7, 82.2), p = 0.002), and feeding intolerance (OR: 2.1, CI: (1.3, 3.3), p = 0.003). CHWs with mCNCP were more likely to provide counseling as needed on 4 out of 7 case management recommendations evaluated, including kangaroo mother care. CONCLUSIONS: CHWs in rural Bangladesh with limited experience using tablets successfully used a mobile application for neonatal assessment after a two-day training. mCNCP may aid frontline health workers in Bangladesh to improve completion of neonatal assessment, classification of illnesses, and adherence to neonatal management guidelines.
Subject(s)
Case Management , Infant, Newborn, Diseases/diagnosis , Infant, Newborn, Diseases/therapy , Mobile Applications , Bangladesh , Community Health Workers , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Kangaroo-Mother Care Method , Male , Neonatal Screening , Rural Health ServicesABSTRACT
Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
Subject(s)
Breast Feeding/statistics & numerical data , Developing Countries/statistics & numerical data , Breast Feeding/trends , Geography , Health Status Disparities , Humans , Policy Making , Prevalence , Public Policy , Spatial AnalysisABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To improve the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age (GA) before birth with the standardised measurement of symphysis-fundal height (SFH), estimation of uterine volume, and statistical modelling including maternal anthropometrics and other factors. DESIGN: Prospective pregnancy cohort study. SETTING: Rural communities in Sylhet, Bangladesh. PARTICIPANTS: 1516 women with singleton pregnancies with early pregnancy ultrasound dating (<20 weeks); 1486 completed follow-up. METHODS: SFH and abdominal girth were measured at subsequent antenatal care (ANC) visits by community health workers at 24 to 28, 32 to 36, and/or >37 weeks gestation. An estimated uterine volume (EUV) was calculated from these measures. Data on pregnancy characteristics and other maternal anthropometrics were also collected. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: GA at subsequent ANC visits, as defined by early ultrasound dating. RESULTS: 1486 (98%) women had at least one subsequent ANC visit, 1102 (74%) women had two subsequent ANC visits, and 748 (50%) had three visits. Using the common clinical practice of approximating the GA (in weeks) with the SFH measurement (cm), SFH systematically underestimated GA in late pregnancy (mean difference -4.4 weeks, 95% limits of agreement -12.5 to 3.7). For the classification of GA <28 weeks, SFH <26 cm had 85% sensitivity and 81% specificity; and for GA <34 weeks, SFH <29 cm had 83% sensitivity and 71% specificity. EUV had similar diagnostic accuracy. Despite rigorous statistical modelling of SFH, accounting for repeated longitudinal measurements and additional predictors, the best model without including a known last menstrual period predicted 95% of pregnancy dates within ±7.4 weeks of early ultrasound dating. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to predict GA with a high degree of accuracy before birth using maternal anthropometric measures and other available maternal characteristics. Efforts to improve GA dating in low- and middle-income countries before birth should focus on increasing coverage and training of ultrasonography. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01572532.
Subject(s)
Anthropometry/methods , Diagnostic Techniques, Obstetrical and Gynecological , Gestational Age , Uterus/physiology , Adult , Bangladesh , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Prospective Studies , Sensitivity and Specificity , Ultrasonography, Prenatal , Young AdultABSTRACT
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
ABSTRACT
Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life-is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality1-4. Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 20175, and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000-2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 20256. Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.