Natural Experiment Outcomes Studies in Rotor Wing Air Medical Transport: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Before-and-After and Helicopter-Unavailable Publications From 1970 to 2022.

OBJECTIVE: Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) is widely used for prehospital and interfacility transport, but there is a paucity of HEMS outcomes data from studies using randomized controlled trial designs. In the absence of robust randomized controlled trial evidence, judgments regarding HEMS potential benefit must be informed by observational data. Within the study design set of observational analyses, the natural experiment (NE) is notable for its high potential methodologic quality; NE designs are occasionally denoted "quasi-experimental." The aim of this study is to examine all NE outcomes studies in the HEMS literature and to discern what lessons can be learned from these potentially high-quality observational data. METHODS: HEMS NE studies were identified during the development of a new HEMS Outcomes Assessment Research Database (HOARD). HOARD was constructed using a broad-ranging search of published and gray literature resources (eg, PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar) that used variations of the terms "helicopter EMS," "air ambulance," and "air medical transport." Among the 221 studies ultimately included in HOARD, 16 NE publications describing 13 sets of observational data comprising myriad diagnostic groups were identified. Of these 16 HEMS NEs, 4 HEMS NE studies assessing trauma outcomes were used in a meta-analysis. A meta-analysis was also performed of 4 HEMS NE studies. RESULTS: Although the disparity of studies (in terms of both case mix and end points) precluded the generation of a pooled effect estimate of an adjusted mortality benefit of HEMs versus ground emergency medical services, HEMS was found to be associated with outcomes improvement in 8 of the 13 cohorts. CONCLUSION: The weight of the NE evidence supports a conclusion of some form of HEMS-mediated outcomes improvement in a variety of patient types. Meta-analysis of 4 HEMS NE studies assessing trauma outcomes generated a model with acceptable heterogeneity (I2 = 43%, Q test: P = .16), which significantly (P < .01) favored HEMS use with a pooled HEMS survival odd ratio estimate of 1.66 (95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.22).

Management Considerations for Air Medical Transport Programs Transfusing RhD-Positive Red Blood Cell-Containing Products to Females of Childbearing Potential.

Recent years have seen increased discussion surrounding the benefits of damage control resuscitation, prehospital transfusion (PHT) of blood products, and the use of whole blood over component therapy. Concurrent shortages of blood products with the desire to provide PHT during air medical transport have prompted reconsideration of the traditional approach of administering RhD-negative red cell-containing blood products first-line to females of childbearing potential (FCPs). Given that only 7% of the US population has blood type O negative and 38% has O positive, some programs may be limited to offering RhD-positive blood products to FCPs. Adopting the practice of giving RhD-positive blood products first-line to FCPs extends the benefits of PHT to such patients, but this practice does incur the risk of future hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN). Although the risk of future fetal mortality after an RhD-incompatible transfusion is estimated to be low in the setting of acute hemorrhage, the number of FCPs who are affected by this disease will increase as more air medical transport programs adopt this practice. The process of monitoring and managing HDFN can also be time intensive and costly regardless of the rates of fetal mortality. Air medical transport programs planning on performing PHT of RhD-positive red cell-containing products to FCPs should have a basic understanding of the pathophysiology, prevention, and management of hemolytic disease of the newborn before introducing this practice. Programs should additionally ensure there is a reliable process to notify receiving centers of potentially RhD-incompatible PHT because alloimmunization prophylaxis is time sensitive. Facilities receiving patients who have had PHT must be prepared to identify, counsel, and offer alloimmunization prophylaxis to these patients. This review aims to provide air medical transport professionals with an understanding of the pathophysiology and management of HDFN and provide a template for the early management of FCPs who have received an RhD-positive red cell-containing PHT. This review also covers the initial workup and long-term anticipatory guidance that receiving trauma centers must provide to FCPs who have received RhD-positive red cell-containing PHT.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVE: Recent systematic reviews of acute care medicine applications of artificial intelligence (AI) have focused on hospital and general prehospital uses. The purpose of this scoping review was to identify and describe the literature on AI use with a focus on applications in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS). METHODS: A literature search was performed with specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. Articles were grouped by characteristics such as publication year and general subject matter with categoric and temporal trend analyses. RESULTS: We identified 21 records focused on the use of AI in HEMS. These applications included both clinical and triage uses and nonclinical uses. The earliest study appeared in 2006, but over one third of the identified studies have been published in 2021 or later. The passage of time has seen an increased likelihood of HEMS AI studies focusing on nonclinical issues; for each year, the likelihood of a nonclinical focus had an odds ratio of 1.3. CONCLUSION: This scoping review provides overview and hypothesis-generating information regarding AI applications specific to HEMS. HEMS AI may be ultimately deployed in nonclinical arenas as much as or more than for clinical decision support. Future studies will inform future decisions as to how AI may improve HEMS systems design, asset deployment, and clinical care.

A bedside to bench study of anti-PD-1, anti-CD40, and anti-CSF1R indicates that more is not necessarily better.

BACKGROUND: Stimulating inflammatory tumor associated macrophages can overcome resistance to PD-(L)1 blockade. We previously conducted a phase I trial of cabiralizumab (anti-CSF1R), sotigalimab (CD40-agonist) and nivolumab. Our current purpose was to study the activity and cellular effects of this three-drug regimen in anti-PD-1-resistant melanoma. METHODS: We employed a Simon's two-stage design and analyzed circulating immune cells from patients treated with this regimen for treatment-related changes. We assessed various dose levels of anti-CSF1R in murine melanoma models and studied the cellular and molecular effects. RESULTS: Thirteen patients were enrolled in the first stage. We observed one (7.7%) confirmed and one (7.7%) unconfirmed partial response, 5 patients had stable disease (38.5%) and 6 disease progression (42.6%). We elected not to proceed to the second stage. CyTOF analysis revealed a reduction in non-classical monocytes. Patients with prolonged stable disease or partial response who remained on study for longer had increased markers of antigen presentation after treatment compared to patients whose disease progressed rapidly. In a murine model, higher anti-CSF1R doses resulted in increased tumor growth and worse survival. Using single-cell RNA-sequencing, we identified a suppressive monocyte/macrophage population in murine tumors exposed to higher doses. CONCLUSIONS: Higher anti-CSF1R doses are inferior to lower doses in a preclinical model, inducing a suppressive macrophage population, and potentially explaining the disappointing results observed in patients. While it is impossible to directly infer human doses from murine studies, careful intra-species evaluation can provide important insight. Cabiralizumab dose optimization is necessary for this patient population with limited treatment options. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03502330.

First-Pass Success of Intubations Using Video Versus Direct Laryngoscopy in Children With Limited Neck Mobility.

OBJECTIVE: It is not clear whether video laryngoscopy (VL) is associated with a higher first-pass success rate in pediatric patients with limited neck mobility when compared with direct laryngoscopy (DL). We sought to determine the association between the laryngoscopy method and first-pass success. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we examined intubation data extracted from 2 prospectively collected, multicenter, airway management safety databases (National Emergency Airway Registry and the National Emergency Airway Registry for children), obtained during the years 2013-2018 in the emergency department. Intubations were included if patients were aged younger than 18 and had limited neck mobility. We compared first-pass success rates for ED intubations that were performed using VL versus DL. We built a structural causal model to account for potential confounders such as age, disease category (medical or trauma condition), other difficult airway characteristics, use of sedatives/paralytics, and laryngoscopist training level. We also analyzed adverse events as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Of 34,239 intubations (19,071 in the National Emergency Airway Registry and 15,168 in the National Emergency Airway Registry for children), a total of 341 intubations (1.0%) met inclusion criteria; 168 were performed via VL and 173 were performed via DL. The median age of patients was 124 months (interquartile range, 48-204). There was no difference in first-pass success between VL and DL (79.8% vs 75.7%, P = 0.44). Video laryngoscopy was not associated with higher first-pass success (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval 0.84-1.47, with DL as a comparator) when a structural causal model was used to account for confounders. There was no difference in the adverse events between VL and DL groups (13.7% vs 8.7%, P = 0.19). CONCLUSION: In children with limited neck mobility receiving tracheal intubation in the ED, neither VL nor DL was associated with a higher first-pass success rate.

The Use of IV Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide (Aviptadil) in Patients With Critical COVID-19 Respiratory Failure: Results of a 60-Day Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory failure is a lethal complication of COVID-19 that has remained resistant to drug therapy. Vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) is shown in nonclinical studies to upregulate surfactant production, inhibit cytokine synthesis, prevent cytopathy, and block replication of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus in pulmonary cells. The study aims to determine whether Aviptadil (synthetic VIP) can improve survival and recovery in patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure compared with placebo and demonstrate biological effects in such patients. DESIGN: A multicenter, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Ten U.S. hospitals: six tertiary-care hospitals and four community hospitals. PATIENTS: A total of 196 patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized 2:1 to receive 3 days of IV Aviptadil or placebo. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary end point (alive and free from respiratory failure at day 60) did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio [OR], 1.6; 95% CI, 0.86-3.11) for patients treated with Aviptadil when controlling for baseline ventilation status as prespecified in the protocol. There was, however, a statistically significant two-fold odds of improved survival (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.9) at 60 days ( p = 0.035). There was significant improvement in respiratory distress ratio and reduced interleukin 6 cytokine release ( p = 0.02) by day 3.Subgroup analysis identified a statistically significant likelihood of achieving primary end point among those treated with high-flow nasal oxygen at baseline ( p = 0.039). Subjects on mechanical ventilation also experienced a 10-fold increased odds of survival with drug versus placebo ( p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: The primary end point did not reach statistical significance, indicating that there was no difference between Aviptadil versus placebo. However, Aviptadil improves the likelihood of survival from respiratory failure at day 60 in critical COVID-19 across all sites of care. Given the absence of drug-related serious adverse events and acceptable safety profile, we believe the benefit versus risk for the use of Aviptadil is favorable for patient treatment.

Designing a longitudinal clinical trial based on a composite endpoint: Sample size, monitoring, and adaptation.

Longitudinal clinical trials are often designed to compare treatments on the basis of multiple outcomes. For example in the case of cardiac trials, the outcomes of interest include mortality as well as cardiac events and hospitalization. For a COVID-19 trial, the outcomes of interest include mortality, time on ventilator, and time in hospital. Earlier work by these authors proposed a non-parametric test based on a composite of multiple endpoints referred to as the Finkelstein-Schoenfeld (FS) test (Finkelstein and Schoenfeld. Stat Med. 1999;18(11):1341-1354.). More recently, an estimate of the treatment comparison based on multiple endpoints (related to the FS test) was proposed (Pocock et al. Eur Heart J. 2011;33(2):176-182.). This estimate, which summarized the ratio of the number of patients who fared better vs worse on the experimental arm was coined the win ratio. The aim of this article is to provide guidance in the design of a trial that will use the FS test or the win ratio. The issues that will be considered are the sample size, sequential monitoring, and adaptive designs.

State-by-state estimates of avoidable trauma mortality with early and liberal versus delayed or restricted administration of tranexamic acid.

OBJECTIVE: Early administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) has been shown to save lives in trauma patients, and some U.S. emergency medical systems (EMS) have begun providing this therapy prehospital. Treatment protocols vary from state to state: Some offer TXA broadly to major trauma patients, others reserve it for patients meeting vital sign criteria, and still others defer TXA entirely pending a hospital evaluation. The purpose of this study is to compare the avoidable mortality achievable under each of these strategies, and to report on the various approaches used by EMS. METHODS: We used the National Center for Health Statistics Underlying Cause of Death data to identify a TXA-naïve population of trauma patients who died from 2007 to 2012 due to hemorrhage. We estimated the proportion of deaths where the patient was hypotensive or tachycardic using the National Trauma Data Bank. We used avoidable mortality risk ratios from the landmark CRASH 2 study to calculate lives saved had TXA been given within one hour of injury based on a clinician's gestalt the patient was at risk for significant hemorrhage; had it been reserved only for hypotensive or tachycardic patients; or had it been given between hours one to three of injury, considered here as a surrogate for deferring the question to the receiving hospital. RESULTS: Had TXA been given within 1 hour of injury, an average of 3409 deaths per year could have been averted nationally. Had TXA been given between one and three hours after injury, 2236 deaths per year could have been averted. Had TXA only been given to either tachycardic or hypotensive trauma patients, 1371 deaths per year could have been averted. Had TXA only been given to hypotensive trauma patients, 616 deaths per year could have been averted. Similar trends are seen at the individual state level. A review of EMS practices found 15 statewide protocols that allow EMS providers to administer TXA for trauma. CONCLUSION: Providing early TXA to persons at risk of significant hemorrhage has the potential to prevent many deaths from trauma, yet most states do not offer it in statewide prehospital treatment protocols.

Alive and Ventilator Free: A Hierarchical, Composite Outcome for Clinical Trials in the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Survival from acute respiratory distress syndrome is improving, and outcomes beyond mortality may be important for testing new treatments. The "ventilator-free days" score, is an established composite that equates ventilation on day 28 to death. A hierarchical outcome treating death as a worse than prolonged ventilation would enhance face validity, but performance characteristics and reporting of such an outcome are unknown. We therefore evaluated the performance of a novel hierarchical composite endpoint, the Alive and Ventilator Free score. DESIGN: Using data from four Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network clinical trials, we compared Alive and Ventilator Free to the ventilator-free days score. Alive and Ventilator Free compares each patient with every other patient in a win-lose-tie for each comparison. Duration of mechanical ventilation is only compared if both patients survived. We evaluated power of Alive and Ventilator Free versus ventilator-free days score under various circumstances. SETTING: ICUs within the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network. PATIENTS: Individuals enrolled in four Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network trials. INTERVENTIONS: None for this analysis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Within the four trials (n = 2,410 patients), Alive and Ventilator Free and ventilator-free days score had similar power, with Alive and Ventilator Free slightly more powerful when a mortality difference was present, and ventilator-free days score slightly more powerful with a difference in duration of mechanical ventilation. Alive and Ventilator Free less often found in favor of treatments that increased mortality and increased days free of ventilation among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: A hierarchical composite endpoint, Alive and Ventilator Free, preserves statistical power while improving face validity. Alive and Ventilator Free is less prone to favor a treatment with discordant effects on survival and days free of ventilation. This general approach can support complex outcome hierarchies with multiple constituent outcomes. Approaches to interpretation of differences in Alive and Ventilator Free are also presented.

Reappraisal of Ventilator-Free Days in Critical Care Research.

Ventilator-free days (VFDs) are a commonly reported composite outcome measure in acute respiratory distress syndrome trials. VFDs combine survival and duration of ventilation in a manner that summarizes the "net effect" of an intervention on these two outcomes. However, this combining of outcome measures makes VFDs difficult to understand and analyze, which contributes to imprecise interpretations. We discuss the strengths and limitations of VFDs and other "failure-free day" composites, and we provide a framework for when and how to use these outcome measures. We also provide a comprehensive discussion of the different analytic methods for analyzing and interpreting VFDs, including Student's t tests and rank-sum tests, as well as competing risk regressions treating extubation as the primary outcome and death as the competing risk. Using simulations, we illustrate how the statistical test with optimal power depends on the relative contributions of mortality and ventilator duration on the composite effect size. Finally, we recommend a simple analysis and reporting framework using the competing risk approach, which provides clear information on the effect size of an intervention, a statistical test and measure of confidence with the ability to adjust for baseline factors and allow interim monitoring for trials. We emphasize that any approach to analyzing a composite outcome, including other "failure-free day" constructs, should also be accompanied by an examination of the components.

Effect of Hydroxychloroquine on Clinical Status at 14 Days in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Data on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed. Objective: To determine whether hydroxychloroquine is an efficacious treatment for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter, blinded, placebo-controlled randomized trial conducted at 34 hospitals in the US. Adults hospitalized with respiratory symptoms from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection were enrolled between April 2 and June 19, 2020, with the last outcome assessment on July 17, 2020. The planned sample size was 510 patients, with interim analyses planned after every 102 patients were enrolled. The trial was stopped at the fourth interim analysis for futility with a sample size of 479 patients. Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to hydroxychloroquine (400 mg twice daily for 2 doses, then 200 mg twice daily for 8 doses) (n = 242) or placebo (n = 237). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was clinical status 14 days after randomization as assessed with a 7-category ordinal scale ranging from 1 (death) to 7 (discharged from the hospital and able to perform normal activities). The primary outcome was analyzed with a multivariable proportional odds model, with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) greater than 1.0 indicating more favorable outcomes with hydroxychloroquine than placebo. The trial included 12 secondary outcomes, including 28-day mortality. Results: Among 479 patients who were randomized (median age, 57 years; 44.3% female; 37.2% Hispanic/Latinx; 23.4% Black; 20.1% in the intensive care unit; 46.8% receiving supplemental oxygen without positive pressure; 11.5% receiving noninvasive ventilation or nasal high-flow oxygen; and 6.7% receiving invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation), 433 (90.4%) completed the primary outcome assessment at 14 days and the remainder had clinical status imputed. The median duration of symptoms prior to randomization was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR], 3 to 7 days). Clinical status on the ordinal outcome scale at 14 days did not significantly differ between the hydroxychloroquine and placebo groups (median [IQR] score, 6 [4-7] vs 6 [4-7]; aOR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.73 to 1.42]). None of the 12 secondary outcomes were significantly different between groups. At 28 days after randomization, 25 of 241 patients (10.4%) in the hydroxychloroquine group and 25 of 236 (10.6%) in the placebo group had died (absolute difference, -0.2% [95% CI, -5.7% to 5.3%]; aOR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.54 to 2.09]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults hospitalized with respiratory illness from COVID-19, treatment with hydroxychloroquine, compared with placebo, did not significantly improve clinical status at day 14. These findings do not support the use of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 among hospitalized adults. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04332991.

Estimation for an accelerated failure time model with intermediate states as auxiliary information.

The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is a common method for estimating the effect of a covariate directly on a patient's survival time. In some cases, death is the final (absorbing) state of a progressive multi-state process, however when the survival time for a subject is censored, traditional AFT models ignore the intermediate information from the subject's most recent disease state despite its relevance to the mortality process. We propose a method to estimate an AFT model for survival time to the absorbing state that uses the additional data on intermediate state transition times as auxiliary information when a patient is right censored. The method extends the Gehan AFT estimating equation by conditioning on each patient's censoring time and their disease state at their censoring time. With simulation studies, we demonstrate that the estimator is empirically unbiased, and can improve efficiency over commonly used estimators that ignore the intermediate states.

A pilot trial of RNS60 in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: RNS60 is a novel immune-modulatory agent that has shown neuroprotective effects in amytrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) preclinical models. RNS60 is administered by weekly intravenous infusion and daily nebulization. The objective of this pilot open-label trial was to test the feasibility, safety, and tolerability of long-term RNS60 administration in ALS patients. METHODS: The planned treatment duration was 23 weeks and the primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. Secondary outcomes included PBR28 positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and plasma biomarkers of inflammation. RESULTS: Sixteen participants with ALS received RNS60 and 13 (81%) completed 23 weeks of RNS60 treatment. There were no serious adverse events and no participants withdrew from the trial due to drug-related adverse events. There were no significant changes in the biomarkers. DISCUSSION: Long-term RNS60 administration was safe and well-tolerated. A large, multicenter, phase II trial of RNS60 is currently enrolling participants to test the effects of RNS60 on ALS biomarkers and disease progression. Muscle Nerve 59:303-308, 2019.

Graphing the Win Ratio and its components over time.

Clinical trials are often designed to compare treatments on the basis of multiple outcomes. For the analysis of the treatment comparison from such a trial, in 1999, the Finkelstein-Schoenfeld test was proposed, which was a generalization of the Gehan-Wilcoxon test based on pairwise comparison of patients on a primary outcome when possible but otherwise on a secondary outcome. In 2012, Pocock and colleagues suggested an estimate based on this concept, the Win Ratio, which summarized the ratio of the number of patients who fared better versus worse on the experimental arm. However, in 2016, Oakes noted that the Win Ratio could be a function of the distribution of follow-up times of the trial. The aim of this paper is to propose an approach to representing the Win Ratio graphically in such a way that the effect of time on the estimate would be apparent. In addition, the methods are used to display the contribution of each endpoint to the composite. We apply the methods to clinical trials in cancer, cardiology, and neurology. Software is available named winRatioAnalysis in CRAN.

The Effect of Shared Decisionmaking on Patients' Likelihood of Filing a Complaint or Lawsuit: A Simulation Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Shared decisionmaking has been promoted as a method to increase the patient-centeredness of medical decisionmaking and decrease low-yield testing, but little is known about its medicolegal ramifications in the setting of an adverse outcome. We seek to determine whether the use of shared decisionmaking changes perceptions of fault and liability in the case of an adverse outcome. METHODS: This was a randomized controlled simulation experiment conducted by survey, using clinical vignettes featuring no shared decisionmaking, brief shared decisionmaking, or thorough shared decisionmaking. Participants were adult US citizens recruited through an online crowd-sourcing platform. Participants were randomized to vignettes portraying 1 of 3 levels of shared decisionmaking. All other information given was identical, including the final clinical decision and the adverse outcome. The primary outcome was reported likelihood of pursuing legal action. Secondary outcomes included perceptions of fault, quality of care, and trust in physician. RESULTS: We recruited 804 participants. Participants exposed to shared decisionmaking (brief and thorough) were 80% less likely to report a plan to contact a lawyer than those not exposed to shared decisionmaking (12% and 11% versus 41%; odds ratio 0.2; 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.31). Participants exposed to either level of shared decisionmaking reported higher trust, rated their physicians more highly, and were less likely to fault their physicians for the adverse outcome compared with those exposed to the no shared decisionmaking vignette. CONCLUSION: In the setting of an adverse outcome from a missed diagnosis, use of shared decisionmaking may affect patients' perceptions of fault and liability.

Design and analysis of a clinical trial using previous trials as historical control.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For single arm trials, a treatment is evaluated by comparing an outcome estimate to historically reported outcome estimates. Such a historically controlled trial is often analyzed as if the estimates from previous trials were known without variation and there is no trial-to-trial variation in their estimands. We develop a test of treatment efficacy and sample size calculation for historically controlled trials that considers these sources of variation. METHODS: We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model, providing a sample from the posterior predictive distribution of the outcome estimand of a new trial, which, along with the standard error of the estimate, can be used to calculate the probability that the estimate exceeds a threshold. We then calculate criteria for statistical significance as a function of the standard error of the new trial and calculate sample size as a function of difference to be detected. We apply these methods to clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using data from the placebo groups of 16 trials. RESULTS: We find that when attempting to detect the small to moderate effect sizes usually assumed in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials, historically controlled trials would require a greater total number of patients than concurrently controlled trials, and only when an effect size is extraordinarily large is a historically controlled trial a reasonable alternative. We also show that utilizing patient level data for the prognostic covariates can reduce the sample size required for a historically controlled trial. CONCLUSION: This article quantifies when historically controlled trials would not provide any sample size advantage, despite dispensing with a control group.

A commentary on: statistical inference problems in sequential parallel comparison designs.

A Sequential Parallel Comparison Design has two stages, the first comparing drug to placebo and the second comparing drug to placebo among patients who did not respond to placebo in the first stage. The paper, Statistical Inference Problems in Sequential Parallel Comparison Designs, claims that the estimate of the treatment difference in the second stage is biased and that under certain circumstances, a suggested hypothesis test will reject the null hypothesis when it should be accepted. This rejoinder argues that the estimate in the second stage is not biased when the true target of estimation (estimand) is properly understood. Further, the null hypothesis that the authors posit is not the correct null hypothesis for clinical trials, and in the situation, they describe that the treatment should be considered to be effective.

Driving pressure and survival in the acute respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical-ventilation strategies that use lower end-inspiratory (plateau) airway pressures, lower tidal volumes (VT), and higher positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEPs) can improve survival in patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but the relative importance of each of these components is uncertain. Because respiratory-system compliance (CRS) is strongly related to the volume of aerated remaining functional lung during disease (termed functional lung size), we hypothesized that driving pressure (ΔP=VT/CRS), in which VT is intrinsically normalized to functional lung size (instead of predicted lung size in healthy persons), would be an index more strongly associated with survival than VT or PEEP in patients who are not actively breathing. METHODS: Using a statistical tool known as multilevel mediation analysis to analyze individual data from 3562 patients with ARDS enrolled in nine previously reported randomized trials, we examined ΔP as an independent variable associated with survival. In the mediation analysis, we estimated the isolated effects of changes in ΔP resulting from randomized ventilator settings while minimizing confounding due to the baseline severity of lung disease. RESULTS: Among ventilation variables, ΔP was most strongly associated with survival. A 1-SD increment in ΔP (approximately 7 cm of water) was associated with increased mortality (relative risk, 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31 to 1.51; P<0.001), even in patients receiving "protective" plateau pressures and VT (relative risk, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.58; P<0.001). Individual changes in VT or PEEP after randomization were not independently associated with survival; they were associated only if they were among the changes that led to reductions in ΔP (mediation effects of ΔP, P=0.004 and P=0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We found that ΔP was the ventilation variable that best stratified risk. Decreases in ΔP owing to changes in ventilator settings were strongly associated with increased survival. (Funded by Fundação de Amparo e Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo and others.).

Phase IIb Trial of an α7 Nicotinic Receptor Partial Agonist With and Without Nicotine Patch for Withdrawal-Associated Cognitive Deficits and Tobacco Abstinence.

PURPOSE/BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to determine whether a novel α7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist improves cognition during nicotine withdrawal and improves abstinence rates. To do so, the effect of the α7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist, encenicline, on cognition and abstinence was evaluated when given as monotherapy and when combined with transdermal nicotine patch (nicotine replacement therapy [NRT]). METHODS: Adult daily smokers, n = 160, who were motivated to quit smoking completed cognitive testing at satiated baseline and after overnight abstinence and then were randomized to receive a 12-week trial of encenicline 1 mg twice daily or identical placebo the day of the overnight abstinent cognitive testing. In the first 6 weeks of the 12-week encenicline administration, participants were also randomized to 6 weeks of NRT patch or placebo patch. Primary outcomes were cognition during abstinence and 7-day point-prevalence abstinence at week 12. RESULTS: No beneficial effects of encenicline were observed on cognition or abstinence when compared with placebo or when combined with NRT compared with placebo capsule + NRT. Of the 4 conditions, abstinence rates were lowest among those assigned to encenicline alone. CONCLUSIONS: Beneficial effects of NRT were observed on cognitive and abstinence outcomes when combined with encenicline compared with encenicline plus placebo patch. Addition of NRT to encenicline improved odds of abstinence approximately 3-fold compared with encenicline plus placebo patch. We conclude that encenicline, 1 mg/d, did not improve abstinence-associated cognitive impairment or abstinence rates as monotherapy or adjunctive therapy to NRT patch.

Urate levels predict survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Analysis of the expanded Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS clinical trials database.

INTRODUCTION: Urate has been identified as a predictor of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) survival in some but not all studies. Here we leverage the recent expansion of the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database to study the association between urate levels and ALS survival. METHODS: Pooled data of 1,736 ALS participants from the PRO-ACT database were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate associations between urate levels at trial entry and survival. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders (i.e., creatinine and body mass index), there was an 11% reduction in risk of reaching a survival endpoint during the study with each 1-mg/dL increase in uric acid levels (adjusted hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97, P < 0.01). DISCUSSION: Our pooled analysis provides further support for urate as a prognostic factor for survival in ALS and confirms the utility of the PRO-ACT database as a powerful resource for ALS epidemiological research. Muscle Nerve 57: 430-434, 2018.