Price effects of a hospital merger: Heterogeneity across health insurers, hospital products, and hospital locations.

In most studies on hospital merger effects, the unit of observation is the merged hospital, whereas the observed price is the weighted average across hospital products and across payers. However, little is known about whether price effects vary between hospital locations, products, and payers. We expand existing bargaining models to allow for heterogeneous price effects and use a difference-in-differences model in which price changes at the merging hospitals are compared with price changes at comparison hospitals. We find evidence of heterogeneous price effects across health insurers, hospital products and hospital locations. These findings have implications for ex ante merger scrutiny.

Adverse selection and consumer inertia: empirical evidence from the Dutch health insurance market.

This paper examines to what extent consumer inertia can reduce adverse selection in health insurance markets. To this end, we investigate consumer choice of deductible in the Dutch health insurance market over the period 2013-2018, using panel data based on a large random sample (266 k) of all insured individuals in the Netherlands. The Dutch health insurance market offers a unique setting for studying adverse selection, because during annual open enrollment periods all adults are free to choose an extra deductible up to 500 euro per year. By focusing on deductible choices of those who do not switch health plans, we are able to examine the 'pure' adverse selection effect (i.e., not distorted by other health plan attributes). We estimate a dynamic logit model to examine individuals' deductible choice. We find evidence of adverse selection, as people with higher previous health care cost are substantially less likely to take up or keep a 500-euro deductible. We also find that adverse selection is counteracted by a high level of consumer inertia, as the average partial effect on deductible choice of the previous selected deductible level is much larger than the average partial effect of a change in health care costs.

Aligning Ambition and Reality: A Multiple Case Study Into Synergistic Influences of Financial and Other Factors on the Outcomes of Integrated Care Projects.

Introduction: While the benefits of integrated care are widely acknowledged, its implementation has proven difficult. Together with other factors, financial factors are known to influence progress towards care integration, but in-depth insight in their influence on the envisioned outcomes of integrated care projects is limited. Methods: We conducted a multiple case study of four integrated care projects in the Netherlands. The projects were purposely sampled to be representative of integrated care in its different forms. A total of 29 semi-structured interviews were held with project members, both medical and non-medical staff. In addition, 141 documents were analyzed, including scientific publications and minutes of meetings. Based on elaborate project descriptions we deduced the synergistic influences of financial and other factors on the outcomes of the projects. Results: Financial factors have an important influence on integrated care projects, though this influence is neither deterministic nor isolated. This is because the likelihood of realizing a positive outcome is affected by the degree to which four key conditions are fulfilled: 1) willingness to change, 2) alignment of interests and uniformity goal, 3) availability of resources to change, and 4) effectiveness of management of external actors. Conclusion: Financial factors have an impact on the outcomes of integrated care projects and must be viewed in synergy with interrelated other factors. Crucial for realizing success in integrated care, a balance must be struck between the level of ambition set in a project and the reality of the prevailing key conditions.

Financing COVID-19-related health care costs in the Dutch competitive health system during 2020 and 2021: Overall experiences and policy recommendations for improving health system resilience.

The Dutch health system is based on the principles of managed (or regulated) competition, meaning that competing risk bearing insurers and providers negotiate contracts on the price, quantity and quality of care. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a huge external shock to the health system which potentially distorted the conditions required for fair competition. Therefore, an important question is to what extent was the competitive Dutch health system resilient to the financial shock caused by the pandemic? Overall, the Dutch competitive health system proved to be sufficiently flexible and resilient at absorbing the financial shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 due to an effective combination of regulatory and self-regulatory measures. However, based on the overall experiences in the Netherlands, from the health policy perspective improvements are needed aimed at (i) refining the catastrophic costs clause included in the Health Insurance Act, (ii) reducing the vulnerability of the Dutch risk equalisation system to distortions due to unforeseen catastrophic health care costs, and (iii) establishing more equal financial risk sharing between health insurers and health care providers. These improvements are also relevant for other countries with a health system based on the principles of managed (or regulated) competition.

Preconditions for efficiency and affordability in competitive healthcare markets: Are they fulfilled in Belgium, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands and Switzerland? Ten years later.

From the mid-1990s several countries have introduced elements of the model of regulated competition in healthcare. In 2012 we assessed the extent to which in five countries ten important preconditions for achieving efficiency and affordability in competitive healthcare markets were fulfilled. In this paper we assess to what extent the fulfilment of these preconditions has changed ten years later. In 2022, as in 2012, in none of the five countries all preconditions are completely fulfilled. In the period 2012-2022 on balance there have been some improvements in the fulfillment of the preconditions, although to a different extent in the five countries. The only preconditions that were improved in most countries were 'consumer information and transparency' and 'cross-subsidies without incentives for risk selection'. On balance the Netherlands and Switzerland made most progress in the number of better fulfilled preconditions. For Belgium these preconditions no longer seem relevant because the idea of regulated competition has been completely abandoned. In Germany, Israel and Switzerland, the preconditions 'effective competition policy' and 'contestability of the markets' are not sufficiently fulfilled in 2022, just as in 2012. In Germany and Switzerland this also holds for the precondition 'freedom to contract and integrate'. Overall, the progress towards realizing the preconditions has been limited.

Changing roles of health insurers in France, Germany, and the Netherlands: any lessons to learn from Bismarckian systems?

Bismarckian health systems are mainly governed by social health insurers, but their role, status, and power vary across countries and over time. We compare the role of health insurers in three distinct social health insurance systems in improving health systems' efficiency. In France, insurers work together as a single payer within a highly regulated context. Although this gives insurers substantial bargaining power, collective negotiations with providers are highly political and do not provide appropriate incentives for efficiency. Both Germany and the Netherlands have introduced competition among insurers to foster efficiency. However, the rationale of insurer competition in Germany is unclear because contracts are mostly concluded at a collective level and individual insurers have little power to influence health system efficiency. In the Netherlands, insurer competition is substantially more effective, but primarily focused on price and cost containment. In all three countries, the role of insurers has been transforming slowly to respond to common challenges of assuring care quality and continuity for an ageing population. To assure sustainability, they need to ensure that care providers cooperate with the same quality and efficiency objectives, but their capacity to do so has been limited by insufficient support to enforce public information on provider quality.

Financial risk allocation and provider incentives in hospital-insurer contracts in The Netherlands.

In healthcare systems with a purchaser-provider split, contracts are an important tool to define the conditions for the provision of healthcare services. Financial risk allocation can be used in contracts as a mechanism to influence provider behavior and stimulate providers to provide efficient and high-quality care. In this paper, we provide new insights into financial risk allocation between insurers and hospitals in a changing contracting environment. We used unique nationwide data from 901 hospital-insurer contracts in The Netherlands over the years 2013, 2016, and 2018. Based on descriptive and regression analyses, we find that hospitals were exposed to more financial risk over time, although this increase was somewhat counteracted by an increasing use of risk-mitigating measures between 2016 and 2018. It is likely that this trend was heavily influenced by national cost control agreements. In addition, alternative payment models to incentivize value-based health care were rarely used and thus seemingly of lower priority, despite national policies being explicitly directed at this goal. Finally, our analysis shows that hospital and insurer market power were both negatively associated with financial risk for hospitals. This effect becomes stronger if both hospital and insurer have strong market power, which in this case may indicate a greater need to reduce (financial) uncertainties and to create more cooperative relationships.

Strategic cost-shifting in long-term care. Evidence from the Netherlands.

With the reform in 2015 of the system of long-term care (LTC) in the Netherlands, responsibilities for the provision of social support and assistance were delegated from the central government to the municipalities. Unintentionally, the way municipalities are financed created incentives to shift cost from the local level back to central level. In this paper we examine whether municipalities respond to the prevailing financial incentives by shifting costs to the public LTC insurance scheme. Using data on almost all Dutch municipalities over the period 2015-2019, we estimate that municipalities with a solvency rate below 20% have a 2.5% higher admission rate to the public LTC scheme. Furthermore, we show that the tightening municipal budgets for social care since 2017 were accompanied with about 14% higher admission rates in 2018 and 2019 compared to 2015. The results point to strategic cost shifting by municipalities that can be counteracted by changing the financial incentives for municipalities and by reducing the existing overlap between the local and central care domains.

Do health insurers use target marketing as a tool for risk selection? Evidence from the Netherlands.

In health care systems based on managed competition, enrolees can choose between insurers who are positioned as prudent buyers of care on their behalf. To avoid risk selection, insurers are compensated through a system of risk equalisation. The Dutch system of risk equalisation is generally considered to be one of the most sophisticated in the world. Empirical evidence, however, shows there are still consumer segments that are profitable for insurers. To examine whether insurers use target marketing for attracting these segments, we assessed promotional material used by Dutch insurers during the switching season of 2019. Our findings provide preliminary evidence that large insurers with different brands primarily use their sub brands as strategic vehicles to improve their competitive positions by targeting these brands at financially favourable groups and price sensitive buyers. By contrast, the more visible main brands are targeted at a much broader spectrum of consumer groups to display the insurer's social character. Only a minority of insurers' marketing expressions are targeted at actual users of care. Despite continuous improvements in the risk equalisation system, on average this group is still unprofitable for insurers. From a health policy perspective, further improvements are key to motivate health insurers to target their efforts at improving care for the chronically ill and to eliminate incentives for risk selection.

Does independent needs assessment limit use of publicly financed long-term care?

In health care the assessment of patients' needs is typically entrusted to health care providers. By contrast, in publicly financed long-term care (LTC) needs assessment is often delegated to an independent assessor. One rationale offered for independent needs assessment in LTC is to limit the scope for moral hazard and supplier-induced demand, which may be particularly strong in case of public LTC insurance. We study whether independent needs assessment restricts use of publicly financed LTC at the intensive margin (i.e. after people are being assessed to be eligible for receiving care). Therefore, we link nationwide Dutch administrative datasets about individual LTC use and eligibility decisions by the independent assessment agency in 2012. We find for virtually all types of care, all population subgroups, and all regions that LTC use by patients was substantially less than the maximum amount of care allowed by the independent assessor. This suggests that in the Netherlands independent needs assessment in LTC does not impose a binding constraint on use once a person is considered eligible for care. Still, independent needs assessment may have reduced LTC use at the extensive margin. A significant proportion of the applications for care (16 %) was rejected. In addition, the independent assessment may deter some people from applying.

Cooperation amongst insurers on enhancing quality of care: precondition or substitute for competition?

In health care systems based upon managed competition, insurers are expected to negotiate with providers about price and quality of care. The Dutch experience, however, shows that quality plays a limited role in insurer-provider negotiations. It has been suggested that this is partly due to a lack of cooperation among insurers. This raises the question whether cooperation amongst insurers is a precondition or a substitute for quality-based competition. To answer this question, we mapped insurers' cooperating activities to enhance quality of care using a six-stage continuum. The first three stages (defining, designing and measuring quality indicators) may enhance competition, whereas the next three stages (setting benchmarks, steering patients and selective contracting) may reduce it. We investigated which types of insurer cooperation currently take place in the Netherlands. Additionally, we organized focus groups among insurers, providers and other stakeholders to examine their perceptions on insurer cooperation. We find that all stakeholders see advantages of cooperation amongst insurers in the first stages of the continuum and sometimes cooperate in this domain. Cooperation in the next stages is almost absent and more controversial because without adequate quality information, it is difficult to assess whether the benefits outweigh the cost associated with reduced competition.

Assessing hospital competition when prices don't matter to patients: the use of time-elasticities.

Health care reforms in several European countries provide health insurers with incentives and tools to become prudent purchasers of health care. The potential success of this strategy crucially depends on insurers' bargaining leverage vis-à-vis health care providers. An important determinant of insurers' bargaining power is the willingness of consumers to consider alternative providers. In this paper we examine to what extent consumers are willing to switch hospitals when they are fully covered for hospital services, which is typical for many European countries. Since prices do not matter to these patients, we estimate time-elasticities to assess hospital substitutability. Using data from a large Dutch health insurer on non-emergency neurosurgical outpatient hospital visits in 2003, we estimate a conditional logit model of patient hospital choice taking both patient heterogeneity and hospital characteristics into account. We use the parameter estimates to simulate the demand effect of an artificial increase in travel time by 10% for every patient, holding all other hospital attributes constant. Overall, the resulting point estimates of hospitals' time-elasticities are fairly high, although variation is substantial (-2.6 to -1.4). Sensitivity tests reveal that these estimates are very robust and differ significantly across individual hospitals. This implies that all hospitals in our study sample have at least one close substitute which is an important precondition for effective hospital competition.

Value-based provider payment: towards a theoretically preferred design.

Worldwide, policymakers and purchasers are exploring innovative provider payment strategies promoting value in health care, known as value-based payments (VBP). What is meant by 'value', however, is often unclear and the relationship between value and the payment design is not explicated. This paper aims at: (1) identifying value dimensions that are ideally stimulated by VBP and (2) constructing a framework of a theoretically preferred VBP design. Based on a synthesis of both theoretical and empirical studies on payment incentives, we conclude that VBP should consist of two components: a relatively large base payment that implicitly stimulates value and a relatively small payment that explicitly rewards measurable aspects of value (pay-for-performance). Being the largest component, the base payment design is essential, but often neglected when it comes to VBP reform. We explain that this base payment ideally (1) is paid to a multidisciplinary provider group (2) for a cohesive set of care activities for a predefined population, (3) is fixed, (4) is adjusted for the population's risk profile and (5) includes risk-mitigating measures. Finally, some important trade-offs in the practical operationalisation of VBP are discussed.

Does price deregulation in a competitive hospital market damage quality?

Regulators may be hesitant to permit price competition in healthcare markets because of its potential to damage quality. We assess whether this fear is well founded by examining a reform that permitted Dutch health insurers to freely negotiate prices with hospitals. Unlike previous research on hospital competition that has relied on quality indicators for urgent treatments, we take advantage of a plausible absence of selection bias to identify the effect on the quality of elective procedures that should be more price responsive. Using data on all admissions for hip replacements to Dutch hospitals and a difference-in-differences comparison between more and less concentrated markets, we find no evidence that price deregulation in a competitive environment reduces quality measured by hip replacement readmission rates.

Which preferred providers are really preferred? Effectiveness of insurers' channeling incentives on pharmacy choice.

Efficient contracting of health care requires effective consumer channeling. Little is known about the effectiveness of channeling strategies. We study channeling incentives on pharmacy choice using a large scale discrete choice experiment. Financial incentives prove to be effective. Positive financial incentives are less effective than negative financial incentives. Channeling through qualitative incentives also leads to a significant impact on provider choice. While incentives help to channel, a strong status quo bias needs to be overcome before consumers change pharmacies. Focusing on consumers who are forced to choose a new pharmacy seems to be the most effective strategy.

The 2015 long-term care reform in the Netherlands: Getting the financial incentives right?

In 2015 the system of long-term care (LTC) financing and provision in the Netherlands was profoundly reformed. The benefits covered by the former comprehensive public LTC insurance scheme were split up and allocated to three different financing regimes. The objectives of the reform were to improve the coordination between LTC, medical care and social care, and to reinforce incentives for an efficient provision of care by making risk-bearing health insurers and municipalities responsible for procurement. Unintentionally, the reform also created a number of major incentive problems, however, resulting from the way: (i) LTC benefits were split up across the three financing regimes; (ii) the various third party purchasers were compensated; and (iii) co-payments for the beneficiaries were designed. These incentive problems may result in cost shifting, lack of coordination between various LTC providers, inefficient use of LTC services and quality skimping. We discuss several options to get the financial incentives better aligned with the objectives of the reform.

Trends in ageing and ageing-in-place and the future market for institutional care: scenarios and policy implications.

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.

Can universal access be achieved in a voluntary private health insurance market? Dutch private insurers caught between competing logics.

For almost a century, the Netherlands was marked by a large market for voluntary private health insurance alongside state-regulated social health insurance. Throughout this period, private health insurers tried to safeguard their position within an expanding welfare state. From an institutional logics perspective, we analyze how private health insurers tried to reconcile the tension between a competitive insurance market pressuring for selective underwriting and actuarially fair premiums (the insurance logic), and an upcoming welfare state pressuring for universal access and socially fair premiums (the welfare state logic). Based on primary sources and the extant historiography, we distinguish six periods in which the balance between both logics changed significantly. We identify various strategies employed by private insurers to reconcile the competing logics. Some of these were temporarily successful, but required measures that were incompatible with the idea of free entrepreneurship and consumer choice. We conclude that universal access can only be achieved in a competitive individual private health insurance market if this market is effectively regulated and mandatory cross-subsidies are effectively enforced. The Dutch case demonstrates that achieving universal access in a competitive private health insurance market is institutionally complex and requires broad political and societal support.

Who will become my co-residents? The role of attractiveness of institutional care in the changing demand for long-term care institutions.

BACKGROUND: In several OECD countries the percentage of people over 80 in LTC institutions has been declining for more than a decade, despite population ageing. The standard model to explain healthcare utilization, the Andersen model, cannot explain this trend. We extend the Andersen model by including proxies for the relative attractiveness of community living compared to institutional care. Using longitudinal data on long-term care use in the Netherlands from 1996 to 2012, we examine to what extent a decline in institutional care is associated with changes in perceived attractiveness of institutional LTC care compared to community living. METHODS: With a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition regression, we decomposed the difference in admission to LTC institutions between the period 1996-1999 and 2009-2012 into a part that accounts for differences in predictors of the Andersen model and an "unexplained" part, and investigate whether the perceived attractiveness of institutional care reduces the size of the unexplained part. RESULTS: We find that factors related to the perceived attractiveness of institutional care compared to community living explains 12.8% of the unexplained negative time trend in admission rates over the total period (1996-2012), and 19.1-19.2% over shorter time frames. DISCUSSION: Our results show that changes in the perceived attractiveness of institutional LTC may explain part of the decline in demand for institutional care. Our findings imply that policies to encourage community living may have a self-reinforcing effect.

Managed competition in the Netherlands: Do insurers have incentives to steer on quality?

In health care systems based on managed competition, insurers are expected to negotiate with providers about price, quantity, and quality of care. The Dutch experience shows that this expectation may be justified with regard to price and quantity, but for quality the results are less conclusive. To examine the incentives insurers face for enhancing quality of care, we conducted in-depth interviews with CEOs and organised separate focus groups with purchasers and marketers of five Dutch health insurers. Jointly these insurers account for more than 90 percent of the market. We distinguished three categories of both positive and negative incentives to steer on quality: social, competitive and financial incentives. The overall picture emerging is that insurers are caught in a struggle between positive and negative incentives, with CEOs being more positive about the incentives to steer on quality than purchasers and marketers. At present, the social mission perceived by insurers seems to be their most important driver to invest in quality enhancement. However, whether or not the role of the social mission is sustainable in a competitive market remains unclear. Improving publicly available information on quality therefore seems to be crucially important for reinforcing the positive as well as counteracting the negative incentives insurers face with respect to enhancing quality of care.