An all-inclusive model for predicting invasive bacterial infection in febrile infants age 7-60 days.

BACKGROUND: Invasive bacterial infections (IBIs) in febrile infants are rare but potentially devastating. We aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for IBI among febrile infants age 7-60 days. METHODS: Data were abstracted retrospectively from electronic records of 37 emergency departments (EDs) for infants with a measured temperature >=100.4 F who underwent an ED evaluation with blood and urine cultures. Models to predict IBI were developed and validated respectively using a random 80/20 dataset split, including 10-fold cross-validation. We used precision recall curves as the classification metric. RESULTS: Of 4411 eligible infants with a mean age of 37 days, 29% had characteristics that would likely have excluded them from existing risk stratification protocols. There were 196 patients with IBI (4.4%), including 43 (1.0%) with bacterial meningitis. Analytic approaches varied in performance characteristics (precision recall range 0.04-0.29, area under the curve range 0.5-0.84), with the XGBoost model demonstrating the best performance (0.29, 0.84). The five most important variables were serum white blood count, maximum temperature, absolute neutrophil count, absolute band count, and age in days. CONCLUSION: A machine learning model (XGBoost) demonstrated the best performance in predicting a rare outcome among febrile infants, including those excluded from existing algorithms. IMPACT: Several models for the risk stratification of febrile infants have been developed. There is a need for a preferred comprehensive model free from limitations and algorithm exclusions that accurately predicts IBIs. This is the first study to derive an all-inclusive predictive model for febrile infants aged 7-60 days in a community ED sample with IBI as a primary outcome. This machine learning model demonstrates potential for clinical utility in predicting IBI.

Healthcare Utilization Among Patients Diagnosed with COVID-19 in a Large Integrated Health System.

BACKGROUND: The demands for healthcare resources following a COVID-19 diagnosis are substantial, but not currently quantified. OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in healthcare utilization within 180 days for patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and identify patient factors associated with increased healthcare use. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. PATIENTS: A total of 64,011 patients with a test-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March to September 2020 in a large integrated healthcare system in Southern California. MAIN MEASURES: Overall healthcare utilization during the 180 days following COVID-19 diagnosis, as well as encounter types and reasons for visits during the first 30 days. Poisson regression was used to identify patient factors associated with higher utilization. Analyses were performed separately for patients who were and were not hospitalized for COVID-19. KEY RESULTS: Healthcare utilization was about twice as high for hospitalized patients compared to non-hospitalized patients in all time periods. The average number of visits was highest in the first 30 days (hospitalized: 12.3 visits/30 person-days; non-hospitalized: 6.6) and gradually decreased over time. In the first 30 days, the majority of healthcare visits were telehealth encounters (hospitalized: 9.0 visits; non-hospitalized: 5.6 visits), and the most prevalent reasons for visits were COVID-related diagnoses, COVID-related symptoms, and respiratory-related conditions. For hospitalized patients, older age (≥65: RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15-1.41), female gender (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.09), and higher BMI (≥40: RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.10) were associated with higher total utilization. For non-hospitalized patients, older age, female gender, higher BMI, non-white race/ethnicity, former smoking, and greater number of pre-existing comorbidities were all associated with increased utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 seek healthcare frequently within 30 days of diagnosis, placing high demands on health systems. Identifying ways to support patients diagnosed with COVID-19 while adequately providing the usual recommended care to our communities will be important as we recover from the pandemic.

Does Hospital Admission/Observation for Chest Pain Improve Patient Outcomes after Emergency Department Evaluation for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome?

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is the top reason for hospitalization/observation in the USA, but it is unclear if this strategy improves patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare 30-day outcomes for patients admitted versus discharged after a negative emergency department (ED) evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: A retrospective, multi-site, cohort study of adult encounters with chest pain presenting to one of 13 Kaiser Permanente Southern California EDs between January 1, 2015, and December 1, 2017. Instrumental variable analysis was used to mitigate potential confounding by unobserved factors. PATIENTS: All adult patients presenting to an ED with chest pain, in whom an acute myocardial infarction was not diagnosed in the ED, were included. MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcome was 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes included 30-day revascularization and major adverse cardiac events. KEY RESULTS: In total, 77,652 patient encounters were included in the study (n=11,026 admitted, 14.2%). Three hundred twenty-two (0.4%) had an acute myocardial infarction (n=193, 0.2%) or death (n=137, 0.2%) within 30 days of ED visit (1.5% hospitalized versus 0.2% discharged). Very few (0.3%) patients underwent coronary revascularization within 30 days (0.7% hospitalized versus 0.2% discharged). Instrumental variable analysis found no adjusted differences in 30-day patient outcomes between the hospitalized cohort and those discharged (risk reduction 0.002, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.007). Similarly, there were no differences in coronary revascularization (risk reduction 0.003, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.007). CONCLUSION: Among ED patients with chest pain not diagnosed with an acute myocardial infarction, risk of major adverse cardiac events is quite low, and there does not appear to be any benefit in 30-day outcomes for those admitted or observed in the hospital compared to those discharged with outpatient follow-up.

Social Risk Factors and Desire for Assistance Among Patients Receiving Subsidized Health Care Insurance in a US-Based Integrated Delivery System.

PURPOSE: Because social conditions such as food insecurity and housing instability shape health outcomes, health systems are increasingly screening for and addressing patients' social risks. This study documented the prevalence of social risks and examined the desire for assistance in addressing those risks in a US-based integrated delivery system. METHODS: A survey was administered to Kaiser Permanente members on subsidized exchange health insurance plans (2018-2019). The survey included questions about 4 domains of social risks, desire for help, and attitudes. We conducted a descriptive analysis and estimated multivariate modified Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Of 438 participants, 212 (48%) reported at least 1 social risk factor. Housing instability was the most common (70%) factor reported. Members with social risks reported more discomfort being screened for social risks (14.2% vs 5.4%; P = .002) than those without risks, although 90% of participants believed that health systems should assist in addressing social risks. Among those with 1-2 social risks, however, only 27% desired assistance. Non-Hispanic Black participants who reported a social risk were more than twice as likely to desire assistance compared with non-Hispanic White participants (adjusted relative risk [RR] 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.8). CONCLUSIONS: Athough most survey participants believed health systems have a role in addressing social risks, a minority of those reporting a risk wanted assistance and reported more discomfort being screened for risk factors than those without risks. Health systems should work to increase the comfort of patients in reporting risks, explore how to successfully assist them when desired, and offer resources to address these risks outside the health care sector.VISUAL ABSTRACT.

Automated abstraction of myocardial perfusion imaging reports using natural language processing.

BACKGROUND: Findings and interpretations of myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) studies are documented in free-text MPI reports. MPI results are essential for research, but manual review is prohibitively time consuming. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated method to abstract MPI reports. METHODS: We developed a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to abstract MPI reports. Randomly selected reports were double-blindly reviewed by two cardiologists to validate the NLP algorithm. Secondary analyses were performed to describe patient outcomes based on abstracted-MPI results on 16,957 MPI tests from adult patients evaluated for suspected ACS. RESULTS: The NLP algorithm achieved high sensitivity (96.7%) and specificity (98.9%) on the MPI categorical results and had a similar degree of agreement compared to the physician reviewers. Patients with abnormal MPI results had higher rates of 30-day acute myocardial infarction or death compared to patients with normal results. We identified issues related to the quality of the reports that not only affect communication with referring physicians but also challenges for automated abstraction. CONCLUSION: NLP is an accurate and efficient strategy to abstract results from the free-text MPI reports. Our findings will facilitate future research to understand the benefits of MPI studies but requires validation in other settings.

Are Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders Risk Factors for Missed Acute Myocardial Infarction Diagnoses Among Chest Pain or Dyspnea Encounters in the Emergency Department?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess if having a mental health and/or substance use disorder is associated with a missed acute myocardial infarction diagnosis in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis (2009 to 2017) of adult ED encounters at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. We used the validated symptom-disease pair analysis of diagnostic error methodological approach to "look back" and "look forward" and identify missed acute myocardial infarctions within 30 days of a treat-and-release ED visit. We use adjusted logistic regression to report the odds of missed acute myocardial infarction among patients with a history of mental health and/or substance use disorders. RESULTS: The look-back analysis identified 44,473 acute myocardial infarction hospital encounters; 574 (1.3%) diagnoses were missed. The odds of missed diagnoses were higher in patients with mental health disorders (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23 to 1.77) but not in those with substance abuse disorders (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.62). The highest risk was observed in those with co-occurring disorders (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.76). The look-forward analysis identified 325,088 chest pain/dyspnea ED encounters; 508 (0.2%) were missed acute myocardial infarctions. No significant associations of missed acute myocardial infarction were revealed in either group (mental health disorder: OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.18; substance use disorder: OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.85). CONCLUSION: The look-back analysis identified patients with mental illness at increased risk of missed acute myocardial infarction diagnosis, with the highest risk observed in those with a history of comorbid substance abuse. Having substance use disorders alone did not increase this risk in either cohort. The look-forward analysis revealed challenges in prospectively identifying high-risk patients to target for improvement.

Social risks and social needs in a health insurance exchange sample: a longitudinal evaluation of utilization.

BACKGROUND: Health systems are increasingly attempting to intervene on social adversity as a strategy to improve health care outcomes. To inform health system efforts to screen for social adversity, we sought to explore the stability of social risk and interest in assistance over time and to evaluate whether the social risk was associated with subsequent healthcare utilization. METHODS: We surveyed Kaiser Permanente members receiving subsidies from the healthcare exchange in Southern California to assess their social risk and desire for assistance using the Accountable Health Communities instrument. A subset of initial respondents was randomized to be re-surveyed at either three or six months later. RESULTS: A total of 228 participants completed the survey at both time points. Social risks were moderate to strongly stable across three and six months (Kappa range = .59-.89); however, social adversity profiles that included participants' desire for assistance were more labile (3-month Kappa = .52; 95% CI = .41-.64 & 6-month Kappa = .48; 95% CI = .36-.6). Only housing-related social risks were associated with an increase in acute care (emergency, urgent care) six months after initial screening; no other associations between social risk and utilization were observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that screening for social risk may be appropriate at intervals of six months, or perhaps longer, but that assessing desire for assistance may need to occur more frequently. Housing risks were associated with increases in acute care. Health systems may need to engage in screening and referral to resources to improve overall care and ultimately patient total health.

Association of Financial Worry and Material Financial Risk with Short-Term Ambulatory Healthcare Utilization in a Sample of Subsidized Exchange Patients.

BACKGROUND: Financial burden can affect healthcare utilization. Few studies have assessed the short-term associations between material (debt, trouble paying rent) and psychological (worry or distress about affording future healthcare) financial risks, and subsequent outpatient and emergency healthcare use. Worry was defined as concerns about affording future healthcare. OBJECTIVE: Examine whether worry about affording healthcare is associated with healthcare utilization when controlling for material risk and general anxiety DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study PARTICIPANTS: Kaiser Permanente members with exchange-based federally subsidized health insurance (n = 450, 45% response rate) MAIN MEASURES: Survey measures of financial risks (material difficulty paying for medical care and worry about affording healthcare) and general anxiety. Healthcare use (primary care, urgent care, emergency department, and outpatient specialty visits) in the 6 months following survey completion. KEY RESULTS: Emergency department and primary care visits were not associated with material risk, worry about affording care, or general anxiety in individual and pooled analyses (all 95% confidence intervals (CI) for relative risk (RR) included 1). Although no individual predictor was associated with urgent care use (all 95% CIs for RR included 1), worry about affording prescriptions (relative risk (RR) = 2.01; 95% CI 1.14, 3.55) and general anxiety (RR = 0.38; 95% CI 0.15, 0.95) were significant when included in the same model, suggesting the two confounded each other. Worry about affording healthcare services was associated with fewer specialty care visits (RR = 0.40; 95% CI 0.25, 0.64) even when controlling for material risk and general anxiety, although general anxiety was also associated with more specialty care visits (RR = 1.98; 95% CI, 1.23, 3.18). CONCLUSIONS: Screening for both general anxiety and financial worry may assist with specialty care utilization. Identifying these concerns may provide more opportunities to assist patients. Future research should examine interventions to reduce worry about cost of care.

Evaluating Sex Disparities in the Emergency Department Management of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We compare clinical management and outcomes of emergency department (ED) encounters by sex after implementation of a clinical care pathway in 15 community EDs that standardized recommendations based on patient risk, using the History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin (HEART) score. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of adult ED encounters evaluated for suspected acute coronary syndrome with a documented HEART score from May 20, 2016, to December 1, 2017. The primary outcomes were hospitalization or 30-day stress testing. Secondary outcomes included 30-day acute myocardial infarction or all-cause death (major adverse cardiac event). A generalized estimating equation regression model was used to compare the odds of hospitalization or stress testing by sex; we report HEART scores (0 to 10) stratified by sex and describing major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS: A total of 34,715 adult ED encounters met the inclusion criteria (56.0% women). A higher proportion of women were classified as low risk (60.5% versus 52.4%; odds ratio [OR] 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33 to 1.45). Women were hospitalized or received stress testing less frequently than men for low HEART scores (18.8% versus 22.8%; OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.84) and intermediate ones (46.7% versus 49.7%; OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.95), but similarly for high-risk ones (74.1% versus 74.4%; OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.28). Women had 18% lower odds of hospitalization or noninvasive cardiac testing (OR 0.82; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.86), even after adjusting for HEART score and comorbidities. Men had higher risks of major adverse cardiac events than women for all HEART score categories but the risk for men was significantly higher among low-risk HEART scores (0.4% versus 0.1%). CONCLUSION: Women with low-risk HEART scores are hospitalized or stress tested less than men, which is likely appropriate, and women have better outcomes than men. Use of the HEART score has the potential to reduce sex disparities in acute coronary syndrome care.

Identifying patients with symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 at elevated risk of adverse events: The COVAS score.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a risk score using variables available during an Emergency Department (ED) encounter to predict adverse events among patients with suspected COVID-19. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adult visits for suspected COVID-19 between March 1 - April 30, 2020 at 15 EDs in Southern California. The primary outcomes were death or respiratory decompensation within 7-days. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models and logistic regression to derive a risk score. We report metrics for derivation and validation cohorts, and subgroups with pneumonia or COVID-19 diagnoses. RESULTS: 26,600 ED encounters were included and 1079 experienced an adverse event. Five categories (comorbidities, obesity/BMI ≥ 40, vital signs, age and sex) were included in the final score. The area under the curve (AUC) in the derivation cohort was 0.891 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901); similar performance was observed in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.895, 95% CI, 0.874-0.916). Sensitivity ranging from 100% (Score 0) to 41.7% (Score of ≥15) and specificity from 13.9% (score 0) to 96.8% (score ≥ 15). In the subgroups with pneumonia (n = 3252) the AUCs were 0.780 (derivation, 95% CI 0.759-0.801) and 0.832 (validation, 95% CI 0.794-0.870), while for COVID-19 diagnoses (n = 2059) the AUCs were 0.867 (95% CI 0.843-0.892) and 0.837 (95% CI 0.774-0.899) respectively. CONCLUSION: Physicians evaluating ED patients with pneumonia, COVID-19, or symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 can apply the COVAS score to assist with decisions to hospitalize or discharge patients during the SARS CoV-2 pandemic.

Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19: Results From an Integrated Health Care Organization.

BACKGROUND: Obesity, race/ethnicity, and other correlated characteristics have emerged as high-profile risk factors for adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated outcomes, yet studies have not adequately disentangled their effects. OBJECTIVE: To determine the adjusted effect of body mass index (BMI), associated comorbidities, time, neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors, and other factors on risk for death due to COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated health care organization. PATIENTS: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members diagnosed with COVID-19 from 13 February to 2 May 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariable Poisson regression estimated the adjusted effect of BMI and other factors on risk for death at 21 days; models were also stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: Among 6916 patients with COVID-19, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and risk for death, even after adjustment for obesity-related comorbidities. Compared with patients with a BMI of 18.5 to 24 kg/m2, those with BMIs of 40 to 44 kg/m2 and greater than 45 kg/m2 had relative risks of 2.68 (95% CI, 1.43 to 5.04) and 4.18 (CI, 2.12 to 8.26), respectively. This risk was most striking among those aged 60 years or younger and men. Increased risk for death associated with Black or Latino race/ethnicity or other sociodemographic characteristics was not detected. LIMITATION: Deaths occurring outside a health care setting and not captured in membership files may have been missed. CONCLUSION: Obesity plays a profound role in risk for death from COVID-19, particularly in male patients and younger populations. Our capitated system with more equalized health care access may explain the absence of effect of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities on death. Our data highlight the leading role of severe obesity over correlated risk factors, providing a target for early intervention. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Roche-Genentech.

Patients' Attitudes and Perceptions Regarding Social Needs Screening and Navigation: Multi-site Survey in a Large Integrated Health System.

BACKGROUND: As more health care organizations integrate social needs screening and navigation programs into clinical care delivery, the patient perspective is necessary to guide implementation and achieve patient-centered care. OBJECTIVES: To examine patients' perceptions of whether social needs affect health and attitudes toward healthcare system efforts to screen for and address social needs. RESEARCH DESIGN: Multi-site, self-administered survey to assess (1) patient perceptions of the health impact of commonly identified social needs; (2) experience of social needs; (3) degree of support for a health system addressing social needs, including which social needs should be screened for and intervened upon; and (4) attitudes toward a health system utilizing resources to address social needs. Analyses were conducted using multivariable logistic regression models with clinic site cluster adjustment. SUBJECTS: Adult patients at seven primary care clinics within a large, integrated health system in Southern California. MAIN MEASURES: Survey measures of experience with, acceptability of, and attitudes toward clinical social determinants of health screening and navigation. KEY RESULTS: A total of 1161 patients participated, representing a 79% response rate. Most respondents (69%) agreed that social needs impact health and agreed their health system should ask about social needs (85%) and help address social needs (88%). Patients with social needs in the last year were more likely to (1) agree social needs impact health (OR 10.2, p < 0.001), (2) support their health system asking patients about social needs (OR 3.7, p < 0.001), and (3) support addressing patient social needs (OR 3.5, p < 0.001). Differences by social need history, gender, age, race, ethnicity, and education were found. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients at a large integrated health system supported clinical social needs screening and intervention. Differences in attitudes by social need history, gender, age, race, ethnicity, and education may indicate opportunities to develop more equitable, patient-centered approaches to addressing social needs.

Embedded Research in the Learning Healthcare System: Ongoing Challenges and Recommendations for Researchers, Clinicians, and Health System Leaders.

Embedded research is an innovative means to improve performance in the learning healthcare system (LHS). However, few descriptions of successful embedded research programs have been published. In this perspective, we describe the Care Improvement Research Team, a mature partnership between researchers and clinicians at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. The program supports a core team of researchers and staff with dedicated resources to partner with health system leaders and practicing clinicians, using diverse methods to identify and rectify gaps in clinical practice. For example, recent projects helped clinicians to provide better care by reducing prescribing of unnecessary antibiotics for acute sinusitis and by preventing readmissions among the elderly. Embedded in operational workgroups, the team helps formulate research questions and enhances the rigor and relevance of data collection and analysis. A recent business-case analysis cited savings to the organization of over $10 million. We conclude that embedded research programs can play a key role in fulfilling the promise of the LHS. Program success depends on dedicated funding, robust data systems, and strong relationships between researchers and clinical stakeholders. Embedded researchers must be responsive to health system priorities and timelines, while clinicians should embrace researchers as partners in problem solving.

Opioid prescribing patterns in emergency departments and future opioid use in adolescent patients.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence suggests that exposure to opioids in adolescence increases risk of future opioid use. We evaluate if exposure to high versus low intensity opioid prescribers in the Emergency Department (ED) influences the risk of future opioid use in adolescents. METHODS: Retrospective study of opioid-naïve patients 10 to 17 years seen in one of 14 EDs between January 2013 and December 2014. We categorized ED providers into quartiles according to the proportion of encounters resulting in opioid prescriptions. Primary outcome was use of opioids in the subsequent 12 months. Analysis adjusted for patient characteristics and compared future use of opioids for patients seen by the lowest versus the highest prescribing quartiles. RESULTS: We included 9,688 patient encounters evaluated by the lowest opioid prescribing physician quartile versus 9,467 in the highest. The highest quartile gave opioid prescriptions to 14.9% of their patients compared to 2.8% for the lowest quartile. No association with future opioid use was found for patients evaluated by low versus high prescriber quartiles (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.08). Patients with increasing age (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.92-2.42) and white versus Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.33-1.80) were associated with recurrent opioid use. CONCLUSION: We found no association between high intensity opioid prescribers and recurrent 12 month use of opioids in opioid-naïve adolescents seen in the ED. This likely reflects various factors that put adolescents at risk for recurrent opioid use and may indicate the importance of the second prescription from primary care after initial exposure to opioids.

Clinician Experiences and Attitudes Regarding Screening for Social Determinants of Health in a Large Integrated Health System.

BACKGROUND: Clinical screening for basic social needs-such as food and housing insecurity-is becoming more common as health systems develop programs to address social determinants of health. Clinician attitudes toward such programs are largely unexplored. OBJECTIVE: To describe the attitudes and experiences of social needs screening among a variety of clinicians and other health care professionals. RESEARCH DESIGN: Multicenter electronic and paper-based survey. SUBJECTS: Two hundred fifty-eight clinicians including primarily physicians, social workers, nurses, and pharmacists from a large integrated health system in Southern California. MEASURES: Level of agreement with prompts exploring attitudes toward and barriers to screening and addressing social needs in different clinical settings. RESULTS: Overall, most health professionals supported social needs screening in clinical settings (84%). Only a minority (41%) of clinicians expressed confidence in their ability to address social needs, and less than a quarter (23%) routinely screen for social needs currently. Clinicians perceived lack of time to ask (60%) and resources (50%) to address social needs as their most significant barriers. We found differences by health profession in attitudes toward and barriers to screening for social needs, with physicians more likely to cite time constraints as a barrier. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians largely support social needs programs, but they also recognize key barriers to their implementation. Health systems interested in implementing social needs programs should consider the clinician perspective around the time and resources required for such programs and address these perceived barriers.

Evaluation of Outpatient Cardiac Stress Testing After Emergency Department Encounters for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Professional guidelines recommend 72-hour cardiac stress testing after an emergency department (ED) evaluation for possible acute coronary syndrome. There are limited data on actual compliance rates and effect on patient outcomes. Our aim is to describe rates of completion of noninvasive cardiac stress testing and associated 30-day major adverse cardiac events. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of ED encounters from June 2015 to June 2017 across 13 community EDs within an integrated health system in Southern California. The study population included all adults with a chest pain diagnosis, troponin value, and discharge with an order for an outpatient cardiac stress test. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who completed an outpatient stress test within the recommended 3 days, 4 to 30 days, or not at all. Secondary analysis described the 30-day incidence of major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS: During the study period, 24,459 patients presented with a chest pain evaluation requiring troponin analysis and stress test ordering from the ED. Of these, we studied the 7,988 patients who were discharged home to complete diagnostic testing, having been deemed appropriate by the treating clinicians for an outpatient stress test. The stress test completion rate was 31.3% within 3 days and 58.7% between 4 and 30 days, and 10.0% of patients did not complete the ordered test. The 30-day rates of major adverse cardiac events were low (death 0.0%, acute myocardial infarction 0.7%, and revascularization 0.3%). Rapid receipt of stress testing was not associated with improved 30-day major adverse cardiac events (odds ratio 0.92; 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.54). CONCLUSION: Less than one third of patients completed outpatient stress testing within the guideline-recommended 3 days after initial evaluation. More important, the low adverse event rates suggest that selective outpatient stress testing is safe. In this cohort of patients selected for outpatient cardiac stress testing in a well-integrated health system, there does not appear to be any associated benefit of stress testing within 3 days, nor within 30 days, compared with those who never received testing at all. The lack of benefit of obtaining timely testing, in combination with low rates of objective adverse events, may warrant reassessment of the current guidelines.

Effect of a HEART Care Pathway on Chest Pain Management Within an Integrated Health System.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe the association of implementing a History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin (HEART) care pathway on use of hospital care and noninvasive stress testing, as well as 30-day patient outcomes in community emergency departments (EDs). METHODS: We performed a prospective interrupted-time-series study of adult encounters for patients evaluated for suspected acute coronary syndrome. The primary outcome was hospitalization or observation, noninvasive stress testing, or both within 30 days. The secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality or acute myocardial infarction. A generalized estimating equation segmented logistic regression model was used to compare the odds of the primary outcome before and after HEART implementation. All models were adjusted for patient and facility characteristics and fit with physicians as a clustering variable. RESULTS: A total of 65,393 ED encounters (before, 30,522; after, 34,871) were included in the study. Overall, 33.5% (before, 35.5%; after, 31.8%) of ED chest pain encounters resulted in hospitalization or observation, noninvasive stress testing, or both. Primary adjusted results found a significant decrease in the primary outcome postimplementation (odds ratio 0.984; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.974 to 0.995). This resulted in an absolute adjusted month-to-month decrease of 4.39% (95% CI 3.72% to 5.07%) after 12 months' follow-up, with a continued trend downward. There was no difference in 30-day mortality or myocardial infarction (0.6% [before] versus 0.6% [after]; odds ratio 1.02; 95% CI 0.97 to 1.08). CONCLUSION: Implementation of a HEART pathway in the ED evaluation of patients with chest pain resulted in less inpatient care and noninvasive cardiac testing and was safe. Using HEART to risk stratify chest pain patients can improve the efficiency and quality of care.

Association of age and opioid use for adolescents and young adults in community emergency departments.

OBJECTIVES: Adolescents and young adults are at high risk for opioid misuse and abuse. The emergency department (ED) plays a key role in treatment of acute and chronic pain and is a primary place that this patient population is exposed to prescription opioids. We evaluate the effect of patient age on use of opioids for adolescents and young adults in community EDs. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adolescent and young adult encounters in 14 community EDs from 2013 to 2014. We evaluate the percent of ED encounters with parenteral and/or oral opioids administered, morphine milligram equivalents per ED patient encounter, and percent of patient encounters discharged with an opioid prescription. Age was the main exposure. The association between outcomes and age was examined using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression adjusting for measurable confounders. RESULTS: There were 259,632 adolescent and young adult encounters in our sample, average age 17.6 years, with 15.8% given opioids. Increasing patient age was associated with a significant increase in the percent of encounters with opioids given (AOR, 1.11; 95% CI 1.10-1.11), morphine milligram equivalents administered (ß 0.38; 95% CI 0.33-0.43 for parenteral and ß 0.26; 95% CI 0.23-0.28 for oral), and percent of patients receiving outpatient prescriptions (AOR, 1.14; 95% CI 1.13-1.14). Significant variability also existed between medical centers (AOR, 2.02; 95% CI 1.86-2.20). CONCLUSION: For adolescent and young adult patients in the ED, there is a significant association between opioid prescribing and increasing age. This describes an opportunity to reduce opioid use in older adolescents and young adults.

Implementation of the Canadian CT Head Rule and Its Association With Use of Computed Tomography Among Patients With Head Injury.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Approximately 1 in 3 computed tomography (CT) scans performed for head injury may be avoidable. We evaluate the association of implementation of the Canadian CT Head Rule on head CT imaging in community emergency departments (EDs). METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis of encounters from January 2014 to December 2015 in 13 Southern California EDs. Adult health plan members with a trauma diagnosis and Glasgow Coma Scale score at ED triage were included. A multicomponent intervention included clinical leadership endorsement, physician education, and integrated clinical decision support. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients receiving a head CT. The unit of analysis was ED encounter, and we compared CT use pre- and postintervention with generalized estimating equations segmented logistic regression, with physician as a clustering variable. Secondary analysis described the yield of identified head injuries pre- and postintervention. RESULTS: Included were 44,947 encounters (28,751 preintervention and 16,196 postintervention), resulting in 14,633 (32.6%) head CTs (9,758 preintervention and 4,875 postintervention), with an absolute 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5% to 8.1%) reduction in CT use postintervention. Adjusted pre-post comparison showed a trend in decreasing odds of imaging (odds ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99). All but one ED reduced CTs postintervention (0.3% to 8.7%, one ED 0.3% increase), but no interaction between the intervention and study site over time existed (P=.34). After the intervention, diagnostic yield of CT-identified intracranial injuries increased by 2.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.1%). CONCLUSION: A multicomponent implementation of the Canadian CT Head Rule was associated with a modest reduction in CT use and an increased diagnostic yield of head CTs for adult trauma encounters in community EDs.

An Age-Adjusted D-dimer Threshold for Emergency Department Patients With Suspected Pulmonary Embolus: Accuracy and Clinical Implications.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We determine the accuracy of an age-adjusted D-dimer threshold to detect pulmonary embolism in emergency department (ED) patients older than 50 years and describe current ED practices when evaluating possible pulmonary embolism. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of ED encounters for suspected pulmonary embolism from 2008 to 2013. We used structured data to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of different D-dimer thresholds. We describe the incidence of pulmonary embolism, the proportion of patients receiving imaging concordant with D-dimer levels, and the number of "missed" pulmonary embolisms. These findings were used to estimate patient outcomes based on different D-dimer thresholds. RESULTS: Among 31,094 encounters for suspected pulmonary embolism, there were 507 pulmonary embolism diagnoses. The age-adjusted D-dimer threshold was more specific (64% versus 54%) but less sensitive (93% versus 98%) than the standard threshold of 500 ng/dL; 11,999 imaging studies identified 507 pulmonary embolisms (4.2%); of these, 1,323 (10.6%) were performed with a D-dimer result below the standard threshold. Among patient encounters without imaging, 17.6% had D-dimer values above the threshold, including 5 missed pulmonary embolisms. Among patients who received imaging, 10.6% had a negative D-dimer result. Applying an age-adjusted D-dimer threshold to our sample would avert 2,924 low-value imaging tests while resulting in 26 additional cases of missed pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: An age-adjusted D-dimer limit has the potential to reduce chest imaging among older ED patients and is more accurate than a standard threshold of 500 ng/dL. Our findings support the adoption of an age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff in community EDs.