Temporal Trends in Patient Characteristics and Outcomes Among Children Enrolled in Mozambique's National Antiretroviral Therapy Program

During 2004-2009, >12,000 children (<15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mozambique. Nationally representative outcomes and temporal trends in outcomes were investigated. Methods: Rates of death, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and attrition (death or LTFU) were evaluated in a nationally representative sample of 1054 children, who initiated ART during 2004-2009 at 25 facilities randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling. Results: At ART initiation during 2004-2009, 50% were male; median age was 3.3 years; median CD4% was 13%; median CD4 count was 375 cells/µL; median weight-for-age Z score was -2.1. During 2004-2009, median time from HIV diagnosis to care initiation declined from 33 to 0 days (P = 0.001); median time from care to ART declined from 93 to 62 days (P = 0.004); the percentage aged <2 at ART initiation increased from 16% to 48% (P = 0.021); the percentage of patients with prior tuberculosis declined from 50% to 10% (P = 0.009); and the percentage with prior lymphocytic interstitial pneumonia declined from 16% to 1% (P < 0.001). Over 2652 person-years of ART, 183 children became LTFU and 26 died. Twelve-month attrition was 11% overall but increased from 3% to 22% during 2004-2009, mainly because of increases in 12-month LTFU (from 3% to 18%). Conclusion: Declines in the prevalence of markers of advanced HIV disease at ART initiation probably reflect increasing ART access. However, 12-month LTFU increased during program expansion, and this negated any program improvements in outcomes that might have resulted from earlier ART initiation.

Routine data from prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) HIV testing not yet ready for HIV surveillance in Mozambique: a retrospective analysis of matched test results

Background: Opt-out HIV testing is offered at 70% of antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Mozambique through the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program. If routine data from this program were of sufficient quality, their heightened coverage and continuous availability could complement or even replace biannual sentinel serosurveys that currently serve as the primary HIV surveillance system in Mozambique. Methods: We assessed the efficacy of routine HIV testing data from prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs for estimating the prevalence of HIV infection among pregnant women. The PMTCT program uses sequential point-of-care rapid tests conducted on site while ANC surveillance surveys use dried blood spots tested sequentially for HIV-1/2 antibodies at a central laboratory. We compared matched routine PMTCT and ANC surveillance test results collected during 2007 and 2009 ANC surveillance surveys from 36 sentinel sites. Results: After excluding 659 women without PMTCT data, including 83 who refused rapid testing, test results from a total of 20,563 women were available. Pooling the data from both years indicated HIV prevalence from routine PMTCT testing was 14.4% versus 15.2% from surveillance testing (relative difference -5.1%; absolute difference -0.78%). Positive percent agreement (PPA) of PMTCT versus surveillance tests was 88.5% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 85.7-91.3%), with 19 sites having PPA below 90%; Negative percent agreement (NPA) was 98.9% (CI: 98.5- 99.2%). No significant difference was found among three regions (North, Center and South), however both PPA and NPA were significantly higher in 2009 than 2007 (p < 0.05). Conclusions: We found low PPA of PMTCT test results compared to surveillance data which is indicative either of testing errors or data reporting problems. Nonetheless, PPA improved significantly from 2007 to 2009, a possible positive trend that should be investigated further. Although use of PMTCT test results would not dramatically change HIV prevalence estimates among pregnant women, the impact of site-level differences on surveillance models should be evaluated before these data are used to replace or complement ANC surveillance surveys. Keywords: HIV prevalence, HIV program data, HIV surveillance, Prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV diagnostic tests, Sentinel surveillance, Mozambique