Navigating the Landscape: Barriers and Facilitators in Electronic Case Reporting Implementation Across Public Health Agencies.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives were to identify barriers and facilitators for electronic case reporting (eCR) implementation associated with "organizational" and "people"-based knowledge/processes and to identify patterns across implementation stages to guide best practices for eCR implementation at public health agencies. DESIGN: This qualitative study uses semistructured interviews with key stakeholders across 6 public health agencies. This study leveraged 2 conceptual frameworks for the development of the interview guide and initial codebook and the organization of the findings of thematic analysis. SETTING: Interviews were conducted virtually with informants from public health agencies at varying stages of eCR implementation. PARTICIPANTS: Investigators aimed to enroll 3 participants from each participating public health agency, including an eCR lead, a technical lead, and a leadership informant. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patterns associated with barriers and facilitators across the eCR implementation stage. RESULTS: Twenty-eight themes were identified throughout interviews with 16 informants representing 6 public health agencies at varying stages of implementation. While there was variation across these levels, 3 distinct patterns were identified, including themes that were described (1) solely as a barrier or facilitator for eCR implementation regardless of implementation stages, (2) as a barrier for those in the early stages but evolved into a facilitator for those in later stages, and (3) as facilitators that were unique to the late-stage implementation. CONCLUSION: This study elucidated critical national, organizational, and person-centric best practices for public health agencies. These included the importance of engagement with the national eCR team, integrated development teams, cross-pollination, and developing solutions with the broader public health mission in mind. While the implementation of eCR was the focus of this study, the findings are generalizable to the broader data modernization efforts within public health agencies.

Contributions of cancer treatment, comorbidities, and obesity to aging-related disease risks among non-Hodgkin lymphoma survivors.

PURPOSE: It is unknown whether cancer treatment contributes more to long-term disease risk than lifestyle factors and comorbidities among B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (B-NHL) survivors. METHODS: B-NHL survivors were identified in the Utah Cancer Registry from 1997 to 2015. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated to assess the role of clinical and lifestyle factors for six cardiovascular, pulmonary, and renal diseases. RESULTS: Cancer treatment contributed to 11% of heart and pulmonary conditions and 14.1% of chronic kidney disease. Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) at baseline contributed to all six diseases with a range of 9.9% of heart disease to 26.5% of chronic kidney disease. High BMI at baseline contributed to 18.4% of congestive heart failure and 7.9% of pneumonia, while smoking contributed to 4.8% of COPD risk. CONCLUSION: Cancer treatment contributed more to heart disease, COPD, and chronic kidney disease than lifestyle factors and comorbidities among B-NHL survivors. High BMI at baseline contributed more to congestive heart failure and pneumonia than cancer treatment, whereas smoking at baseline was not a major contributor in this B-NHL survivor cohort. Baseline comorbidities consistently demonstrated high attributable risks for these diseases, demonstrating a strong association between preexisting comorbidities and aging-related disease risks.

Utah obstetricians' opinions of planned home birth and conflicting NICE/ACOG guidelines: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recently published recommendations that support planned home birth for low-risk women. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) remains wary of planned home birth, asserting that hospitals and birthing centers are the safest birth settings. Our objective was to examine opinions of obstetricians in Salt Lake City, Utah about home birth in the context of rising home birth rates and conflicting guidelines. METHODS: Participants were recruited through online searches of Salt Lake City obstetricians and through snowball sampling. We conducted individual interviews exploring experiences with and attitudes toward planned home birth and the ACOG/NICE guidelines. RESULTS: Fifteen obstetricians who varied according to years of experience, location of medical training, sex, and subspecialty (resident, OB/GYN, maternal-fetal medicine specialist) were interviewed. Participants did not recommend home birth but supported a woman's right to choose her birth setting. Obstetrician opinions about planned home birth were shaped by misconceptions of home birth benefits, confusion surrounding the scope of care at home and among home birth providers, and negative transfer experiences. Participants were unfamiliar with the literature on planned home birth and/or viewed the evidence as unreliable. Support for ACOG guidelines was high, particularly in the context of the United States health care setting. CONCLUSION: Physician objectivity may be limited by biases against home birth, which stem from limited familiarity with published evidence, negative experiences with home-to-hospital transfers, and distrust of home birth providers in a health care system not designed to support home birth.

Hospital preparedness in advance of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Regardless of the capacity of the health care system of the host nation, mass gatherings require special planning and preparedness efforts within the health system. Brazil will host the 2014 Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. This paper represents the first results from Project "Prepara Brasil," which is investigating the preparedness of the health sector and pharmaceutical services for these events. Hypothesis/Problem This study was designed to identify the efforts engaged in to prepare the health sector in Brazil for the FIFA World Cup 2014 event, as well as the 2016 Summer Olympics. METHODS: Key informant interviews were conducted with representatives of both the municipality and hospital sectors in each of the 12 host cities where matches will be played. A semi-structured key informant interview guide was developed, with sections for each type of participant. One of each municipality's reference hospitals was identified and seven additional general hospitals were randomly selected from all of the inpatient facilities in each municipality. The interviewers were instructed to contact a reference hospital, and two of the other hospitals, in the jurisdiction for participation in the study. Questions were asked about plans for mass-gathering events, the interaction between hospitals and government officials in preparation for the World Cup, and their perceptions of their surge capacity to meet the potential demands generated by the presence of the World Cup events in their municipalities. RESULTS: In all, 11 representatives of the sampled reference hospitals, and 24 representatives of other general private and public hospitals in the municipalities, were interviewed. Most of the hospitals had some interaction with government officials in preparation for the World Cup 2014. Approximately one-third (34%) received training activities from the government. Fifty-four percent (54%) of hospitals had no specific plans for communicating with the government or other agencies during the World Cup. Approximately half (51%) had plans for surge capacity during the event, but only 27% had any surge capacity for isolation of potentially infectious patients. CONCLUSION: Overall, although there has been mention of a great deal of planning on the part of the government officials for the World Cup 2014, hospital surge to meet the potential increase in demand still falls short.

Associations of Anxiety, Insomnia, and Physical Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: Anxiety, insomnia, and physical activity (PA) are interrelated, but the bi-directional relationships between these three variables are not well understood. Less is known of these relationships in settings of disrupted daily activities and acute stress. This study aimed to characterize and examine relationships between insomnia, anxiety, and PA throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when many lifestyle behaviors were disrupted. METHODS: Participants comprised a convenience sample of 204 adults (55.4% female; 43.85 ± 15.85 years old) who completed the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Questionnaire (GAD-7), Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) at three time points through the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-lagged panel model was used to evaluate these variables' concurrent, autoregressive, and cross-lagged relationships across time. Follow-up dynamic panel modeling using maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling was employed. RESULTS: Approximately 64% of participants reported their work/occupation as affected by the pandemic. At baseline, associations between anxiety and insomnia were observed (ß-coefficient: 15.87; p < 0.001). Insomnia was a positive future predictor of anxiety (ISI time point 2: 7.9 ± 5.6 points; GAD-7 at time point 3: 4.1 ± 4.2 points; ß-coefficient: 0.16; p < 0.01). No associations were observed between PA and anxiety or insomnia (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Insomnia and anxiety were interrelated, and effects were cross-lagged. These data can inform future work focused on improving anxiety in settings of acute stress and disruptions to daily life, such as changes in occupational structure and stability. Specifically, targeting sleep parameters may be of interest to elicit downstream positive health behaviors.

An economic evaluation of the expansion of electronic case reporting in an academic healthcare setting.

Objectives: Determine the economic cost or benefit of expanding electronic case reporting (eCR) for 29 reportable conditions beyond the initial eCR implementation for COVID-19 at an academic health center. Materials and methods: The return on investment (ROI) framework was used to quantify the economic impact of the expansion of eCR from the perspective of an academic health system over a 5-year time horizon. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess key factors such as personnel cost, inflation, and number of expanded conditions. Results: The total implementation costs for the implementation year were estimated to be $5031.46. The 5-year ROI for the expansion of eCR for the 29 conditions is expected to be 142% (net present value of savings: $7166). Based on the annual ROI, estimates suggest that the savings from the expansion of eCR will cover implementation costs in approximately 4.8 years. All sensitivity analyses yielded a strong ROI for the expansion of eCR. Discussion and conclusion: Our findings suggest a strong ROI for the expansion of eCR at UHealth, with the most significant cost savings observed implementing eCR for all reportable conditions. An early effort to ensure data quality is recommended to expedite the transition from parallel reporting to production to improve the ROI for healthcare organizations. This study demonstrates a positive ROI for the expansion of eCR to additional reportable conditions beyond COVID-19 in an academic health setting, such as UHealth. While this evaluation focuses on the 5-year time horizon, the potential benefit could extend further.

Data for preparedness metrics: legal, economic, and operational.

Tracking progress toward the goal of preparedness for public health emergencies requires a foundation in evidence derived both from scientific inquiry and from preparedness officials and professionals. Proposed in this article is a conceptual model for this task from the perspective of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Centers. The necessary data capture the areas of responsibility of not only preparedness professionals but also legislative and executive branch officials. It meets the criteria of geographic specificity, availability in standardized and reliable measures, parameterization as quantitative values or qualitative distinction, and content validity. The technical challenges inherent in preparedness tracking are best resolved through consultation with the jurisdictions and communities whose preparedness is at issue.

What a difference a year makes: Objective rest/activity patterns, circadian phase markers, and sleep quality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic led to numerous changes in sleep duration, quality, and timing. The goal of this study was to examine objective and self-reported changes in sleep and circadian timing before and during the pandemic. METHODS: Data were utilized from an ongoing longitudinal study of sleep and circadian timing with assessments at baseline and 1-year follow-up. Participants had baseline assessment between 2019 and March 2020 (before pandemic) and 12-month follow-up between September 2020 and March 2021 (during pandemic). Participants completed 7 days of wrist actigraphy, self-report questionnaires, and laboratory-collected circadian phase assessment (dim light melatonin onset). RESULTS: Actigraphy and questionnaire data were available for 18 participants (11 women and 7 men, Mean = 38.8 years, SD = 11.8). Dim light melatonin onset was available for 11 participants. Participants demonstrated statistically significant decreases in sleep efficiency (Mean = -4.11%, SD = 3.22, P = .001), worse scores on Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System sleep disturbance scale (Mean increase = 4.48, SD = 6.87, P = .017), and sleep end time delay (Mean = 22.4 mins, SD = 44.4 mins, P = .046). Chronotype was significantly correlated with change in dim light melatonin onset (r = 0.649, P = .031). This suggests that a later chronotype is associated with a greater delay in dim light melatonin onset. There were also non-significant increases in total sleep time (Mean = 12.4 mins, SD = 44.4 mins, P = .255), later dim light melatonin onset (Mean = 25.2 mins, SD = 1.15 hrs, P = .295), and earlier sleep start time (Mean = 11.4 mins, SD = 48 mins, P = .322). CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate objective and self-reported changes to sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic. Future studies should look at whether some individuals will require intervention to phase advance sleep when returning to previous routines such as returning to office and school settings.

Conflicting HIV/AIDS Sex Education Policies and Mixed Messaging among Educators and Students in the Lower Manya Krobo Municipality, Ghana.

While school-based comprehensive sex education (CSE) is effective in HIV prevention among young people ages 10-24 years, Ghana's national sexual and reproductive health education policy promotes abstinence. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health's HIV prevention programs provide more comprehensive school-based education. This qualitative study evaluated the HIV/AIDS education program in the Lower Manya Krobo Municipality to assess the perspectives of students and educators in 10 schools on school-based sexual and reproductive health programs, including HIV/AIDS education and conflicting HIV/AIDS sex education policies. HIV prevalence in the Lower Manya Krobo Municipality of Ghana was more than twice the national average at 5.64% in 2018, and prevalence among youth in the municipality aged 15-24 was the highest in the nation at 0.8%. Educators have mixed feelings regarding abstinence-based and CSE approaches. However, students generally endorse abstinence and describe the limitations of condom use. Ambiguity in overarching policies is identified as a factor that could influence the orientation of school-based health educators, create disharmony in sex education interventions, introduce confusing sex education messages to young people, and create a potentially narrow curriculum that limits the gamut of HIV/AIDS sex education to exclude young people's risky sexual behaviours and diverse teaching and implementation strategies. Policies and the scope of sex education should be realigned to ensure the transparent implementation of HIV/AIDS sex education programs in Ghana.

Sleep, Diet, Physical Activity, and Stress during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed routines and habits, raising stress and anxiety levels of individuals worldwide. The goal of this qualitative study was to advance the understanding of how pandemic-related changes affected sleep, diet, physical activity (PA), and stress among adults. We conducted semi-structured, qualitative interviews with 185 participants and selected 33 interviews from a represented sample based on age, race, and gender for coding and analysis of themes. After coding for thematic analysis, results demonstrated four primary themes: sleep, diet, PA, and stress. Sleep sub-themes such as poorer sleep quality were reported by 36% of our participants, and 12% reported increased an frequency of vivid dreams and nightmares. PA was decreased in 52% of our participants, while 33% experienced an increase and 15% experienced no change in PA. Participants also reported having an improved diet, mostly among women. Stress was elevated in 79% of our participants and was more likely to be discussed by women. Many participants reported how stress was involved in precipitating health behavior change, especially for sleep. Increased stress was also linked to elevated anxiety and depression among participants. The results of this qualitative study demonstrate how managing stress could have a beneficial effect on promoting health behaviors and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

Evaluation of the seroprevalence of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on a university campus: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Human infection with influenza A(H1N1) 2009 was first identified in the United States on 15 April 2009 and on 11 June 2009, WHO declared that the rapidly spreading swine-origin influenza virus constituted a global pandemic. We evaluated the seroprevalence of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on a large public University campus, as well as disparities in demographic, symptomatic and vaccination characteristics of participants. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional study design, sera was collected from volunteers and then tested for the presence of antibodies to the virus using a ≥ 1:40 dilution cut-off by hemagglutination inhibition assay. In conjunction, participants were asked to complete a questionnaire allowing us to estimate risk factors for infection in this population, as well as distinguish artificially derived antibodies from naturally derived antibodies. RESULTS: 300 total participants were recruited and tested. 158 (52.6%) tested positive for influenza A(H1N1) 2009 via hemagglutination inhibition assay using a ≥ 1:40 dilution cut-off. 86 people (54.4%) tested positive for H1N1 but did not report experiencing symptoms during the pandemic meeting the May 2010 CDC definition of influenza-like illness. Furthermore, of those individuals who reported that they had received the H1N1 vaccine, 16% did not test positive. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 52.7% of the total study population tested positive for influenza A(H1N1) 2009. 54.4% of those who tested positive for influenza A(H1N1) 2009 using the ≥ 1:40 dilution cut-off on the hemagglutination inhibition assay in this study population did not report experiencing symptoms during the pandemic meeting the May 2010 CDC definition of influenza-like illness. 16% of those who reported receiving the H1N1 vaccine did not test positive by HAI. We also found that vaccination coverage for H1N1 vaccine was poor among Blacks and Latinos, despite the fact that vaccine was readily available at no cost.

Cardiovascular disease risks in younger versus older adult B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors.

INTRODUCTION: Young cancer survivors may be at increased risk of early-onset chronic health conditions. The aim of this population-based study is to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among younger versus older B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (B-NHL) survivors compared with their respective general population cohorts. METHODS: B-NHL survivors diagnosed from 1997 to 2015 in the Utah Cancer Registry were matched with up to five cancer-free individuals on birth year, sex, and birth state, using the statewide Utah Population Database. Electronic medical records and statewide health care facility data were used to identify disease outcomes ≥5 years after cancer diagnosis. Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for B-NHL survivors diagnosed at <65 years and ≥65 years old. RESULTS: Younger B-NHL survivors had higher relative risks than older cancer survivors of chronic rheumatic disease of the heart valves (HR = 4.14, 99% CI = 2.17-7.89; P valueheterogeneity = 0.004); peri-, endo-, and myocarditis (HR = 2.43, 99% CI = 1.38-4.28; P valueheterogeneity = 0.016); diseases of the arteries (HR = 1.63, 99% CI = 1.21-2.21; P valueheterogeneity = 0.044); and hypotension (HR = 2.44, 99% CI = 1.58-3.75; P valueheterogeneity = 0.048). B-NHL survivors of both age groups had elevated relative risks of heart disease overall and congestive heart failure. CONCLUSION: Younger B-NHL survivors had higher risks than older B-NHL survivors of specific cardiovascular diseases compared to their respective general population cohorts.

Age-Related Disease Risks in Younger versus Older B-Cell Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Younger cancer survivors may develop age-related diseases due to the cancer treatment that they undergo. The aim of this population-based study is to estimate incidence of age-related diseases besides cardiovascular disease among younger versus older B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (B-NHL) survivors compared with their respective general population cohorts. METHODS: Survivors of B-NHL were diagnosed between 1997 and 2015 from the Utah Cancer Registry. Using the Utah Population Database, up to 5 cancer-free individuals from the general population were matched with a B-NHL survivor on sex, birth year, and state of birth. Hazard ratios (HR) for age-related disease outcomes, which were identified from medical records and statewide health care facility data, were estimated using Cox Proportional Hazards models for B-NHL survivors diagnosed at <65 years versus ≥65 years at least 5 years since B-NHL diagnosis. RESULTS: Comparing 2,129 B-NHL survivors with 8,969 individuals from the general population, younger B-NHL survivors had higher relative risks of acute renal failure [HR, 2.24; 99% confidence interval (CI), 1.48-3.39; P heterogeneity = 0.017), pneumonia (HR, 2.42; 99% CI, 1.68-3.49; P heterogeneity = 0.055), and nutritional deficiencies (HR, 2.08; 99% CI, 1.48-2.92; P heterogeneity = 0.051) ≥5 years after cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Younger B-NHL survivors had higher relative risks of acute renal failure, pneumonia, and nutritional deficiencies than older B-NHL survivors compared with their respective general population cohorts, ≥5 years after cancer diagnosis.

The evidence base for effectiveness of preparedness training: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVES: In 2007, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) commissioned an Evidence-Based Gaps Collaboration Group to consider whether past experience could help guide future efforts to educate and train public health workers in responding to emergencies and disasters. METHODS: The Group searched the peer-reviewed literature for preparedness training articles meeting three criteria: publication during the period when CDC's Centers for Public Health Preparedness were fully operational, content relevant to emergency response operations, and content particular to the emergency response roles of public health professionals. Articles underwent both quantitative and qualitative analyses. RESULTS: The search identified 163 articles covering the topics of leadership and command structure (18.4%), information and communications (14.1%), organizational systems (78.5%), and others (23.9%). The number of reports was substantial, but their usefulness for trainers and educators was rated only "fair" to "good." Thematic analysis of 137 articles found that organizational topics far outnumbered leadership, command structure, and communications topics. Disconnects among critical participants--including trainers, policy makers, and public health agencies--were noted. Generalizable evaluations were rare. CONCLUSIONS: Reviews of progress in preparedness training for the public health workforce should be repeated in the future. Governmental investment in training for preparedness should continue. Future training programs should be grounded in policy and practice needs, and evaluations should be based on performance improvement.

A graduate curriculum in emergency public health.

The increase in adverse health impacts of disasters has raised awareness of the need for education in the field of emergency public health. In the past, most traditional models of graduate education in schools of public health have not incorporated the theory and practice of disaster public health into their curricula. This paper describes the development of a curriculum in emergency public health within a US masters program in public health, and provides a description of the courses that comprise an area of specialization in the field. The interdisciplinary nature of the faculty, close ties with public health practitioners, and practical applications of the nine courses in this program are highlighted. The curriculum is presented as one model that can be used to meet the educational needs of professionals who will assume the responsibility for planning for and responding to the public health impacts of mass-populations disasters.

Pandemic influenza triage in the clinical setting.

INTRODUCTION: There has been much federal and local health planning for an influenza pandemic in the United States, but little is known about the ability of the clinical community to deal quickly and effectively with a potentially overwhelming surge of pandemic influenza patients. PROBLEM: The attitudes and expectations of emergency physicians, emergency nurses, hospital nursing supervisors, hospital administrators, and infection control personnel concerning clinical care in a pandemic were assessed. METHODS: Key informant structured interviews of 46 respondents from 34 randomly selected emergency receiving hospitals in Los Angeles County were conducted using an Institutional Review Board-approved protocol. The interview asked about supplies/resources, triage, quality of care, and decision-making. At the conclusion of each interview, the informant was asked to provide the contact information for at least two others within their respective professional group. Interviews were transcribed and coded for key themes using qualitative analytical software. RESULTS: There was little salience that an influx of variably ill patients with influenza would force stratified healthcare decision-making. There also was a general lack of preparation to address the ethics and practices of triaging patients in the clinical setting of a pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Guidelines must be developed in concert with public health, medical society, and legislative authorities to help clinicians define, adopt, and communicate to the public those practice standards that will be followed in a mass population, infectious disease emergency.

Developing an Environmental Health Sciences COVID-19 Research Agenda: Results from the NIEHS Disaster Research Response (DR2) Work Group's Modified Delphi Method.

Leveraging the community of practice recently established through the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) Disaster Research Response (DR2) working group, we used a modified Delphi method to identify and prioritize environmental health sciences Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) research questions. Twenty-six individuals with broad expertise across a variety of environmental health sciences subdisciplines were selected to participate among 45 self-nominees. In Round 1, panelists submitted research questions and brief justifications. In Round 2, panelists rated the priority of each question on a nine-point Likert scale. Responses were trichotomized into priority categories (low priority; medium priority; and high priority). A research question was determined to meet consensus if at least 69.2% of panelists rated it within the same priority category. Research needs that did not meet consensus in round 2 were redistributed for re-rating. Fourteen questions met consensus as high priority in round 2, and an additional 14 questions met consensus as high priority in round 3. We discuss the impact and limitations of using this approach to identify and prioritize research questions in the context of a disaster response.

What Protective Health Measures Are Americans Taking in Response to COVID-19? Results from the COVID Impact Survey.

With the emergence of the novel SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes; COVID-19, compliance with/adherence to protective measures is needed. Information is needed on which measures are, or are not, being undertaken. Data collected from the COVID Impact Survey, conducted by the non-partisan and objective research organization NORC at the University of Chicago on April, May, and June of 2020, were analyzed through weighted Quasi-Poisson regression modeling to determine the association of demographics, socioeconomics, and health conditions with protective health measures taken at the individual level in response to COVID-19. The three surveys included data from 18 regional areas including 10 states (CA, CO, FL, LA, MN, MO, MT, NY, OR, and TX) and 8 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (Atlanta, GA; Baltimore, MD; Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Cleveland and Columbus, OH; Phoenix, AZ; and Pittsburgh, PA). Individuals with higher incomes, insurance, higher education levels, large household size, age 60+, females, minorities, those who have asthma, have hypertension, overweight or obese, and those who suffer from mental health issues during the pandemic were significantly more likely to report taking precautionary protective measures relative to their counterparts. Protective measures for the three subgroups with a known relationship to COVID-19 (positive for COVID-19, knowing an individual with COVID-19, and knowing someone who had died from COVID-19) were strongly associated with the protective health measures of washing hands, avoiding public places, and canceling social engagements. This study provides first baseline data on the response to the national COVID-19 pandemic at the individual level in the US. The found heterogeneity in the response to this pandemic by different variables can inform future research and interventions to reduce exposure to the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes.

Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.