Home working and social and mental wellbeing at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: Evidence from 7 longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Home working has increased since the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's onset with concerns that it may have adverse health implications. We assessed the association between home working and social and mental wellbeing among the employed population aged 16 to 66 through harmonised analyses of 7 UK longitudinal studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated associations between home working and measures of psychological distress, low life satisfaction, poor self-rated health, low social contact, and loneliness across 3 different stages of the pandemic (T1 = April to June 2020 -first lockdown, T2 = July to October 2020 -eased restrictions, T3 = November 2020 to March 2021 -second lockdown) using modified Poisson regression and meta-analyses to pool results across studies. We successively adjusted the model for sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex), job characteristics (e.g., sector of activity, pre-pandemic home working propensities), and pre-pandemic health. Among respectively 10,367, 11,585, and 12,179 participants at T1, T2, and T3, we found higher rates of home working at T1 and T3 compared with T2, reflecting lockdown periods. Home working was not associated with psychological distress at T1 (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.08) or T2 (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.11), but a detrimental association was found with psychological distress at T3 (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.30). Study limitations include the fact that pre-pandemic home working propensities were derived from external sources, no information was collected on home working dosage and possible reverse association between change in wellbeing and home working likelihood. CONCLUSIONS: No clear evidence of an association between home working and mental wellbeing was found, apart from greater risk of psychological distress during the second lockdown, but differences across subgroups (e.g., by sex or level of education) may exist. Longer term shifts to home working might not have adverse impacts on population wellbeing in the absence of pandemic restrictions but further monitoring of health inequalities is required.

Trends in the ability of socioeconomic position to predict individual body mass index: an analysis of repeated cross-sectional data, 1991-2019.

BACKGROUND: The widening of group-level socioeconomic differences in body mass index (BMI) has received considerable research attention. However, the predictive power of socioeconomic position (SEP) indicators at the individual level remains uncertain, as does the potential temporal variation in their predictive value. Examining this is important given the increasing incorporation of SEP indicators into predictive algorithms and calls to reduce social inequality to tackle the obesity epidemic. We thus investigated SEP differences in BMI over three decades of the obesity epidemic in England, comparing population-wide (SEP group differences in mean BMI) and individual-level (out-of-sample prediction of individuals' BMI) approaches to understanding social inequalities. METHODS: We used repeated cross-sectional data from the Health Survey for England, 1991-2019. BMI (kg/m2) was measured objectively, and SEP was measured via educational attainment, occupational class, and neighbourhood index of deprivation. We ran random forest models for each survey year and measure of SEP adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: The mean and variance of BMI increased within each SEP group over the study period. Mean differences in BMI by SEP group also increased: differences between lowest and highest education groups were 1.0 kg/m2 (0.4, 1.6) in 1991 and 1.3 kg/m2 (0.7, 1.8) in 2019. At the individual level, the predictive capacity of SEP was low, though increased in later years: including education in models improved predictive accuracy (mean absolute error) by 0.14% (- 0.9, 1.08) in 1991 and 1.05% (0.18, 1.82) in 2019. Similar patterns were obtained for occupational class and neighbourhood deprivation and when analysing obesity as an outcome. CONCLUSIONS: SEP has become increasingly important at the population (group difference) and individual (prediction) levels. However, predictive ability remains low, suggesting limited utility of including SEP in prediction algorithms. Assuming links are causal, abolishing SEP differences in BMI could have a large effect on population health but would neither reverse the obesity epidemic nor reduce much of the variation in BMI.

Ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in initiation of second-line antidiabetic treatment for people with type 2 diabetes in England: A cross-sectional study.

AIMS: To assess any disparities in the initiation of second-line antidiabetic treatments prescribed among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in England according to ethnicity and social deprivation level. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study used linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary care data (Hospital Episode Statistics), and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). We included people aged 18 years or older with T2DM who intensified to second-line oral antidiabetic medication between 2014 and 2020 to investigate disparities in second-line antidiabetic treatment prescribing (one of sulphonylureas [SUs], dipeptidyl peptidase-4 [DPP-4] inhibitors, or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 [SGLT2] inhibitors, in combination with metformin) by ethnicity (White, South Asian, Black, mixed/other) and deprivation level (IMD quintiles). We report prescriptions of the alternative treatments by ethnicity and deprivation level according to predicted percentages derived from multivariable, multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 36 023 people, 85% were White, 10% South Asian, 4% Black and 1% mixed/other. After adjustment, the predicted percentages for SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing by ethnicity were 21% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19-23%), 20% (95% CI 18-22%), 19% (95% CI 16-22%) and 17% (95% CI 14-21%) among people with White, South Asian, Black, and mixed/other ethnicity, respectively. After adjustment, the predicted percentages for SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing by deprivation were 22% (95% CI 20-25%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21%) for the least deprived and the most deprived quintile, respectively. When stratifying by prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) status, we found lower predicted percentages of people with prevalent CVD prescribed SGLT2 inhibitors compared with people without prevalent CVD across all ethnicity groups and all levels of social deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with T2DM, there were no substantial differences by ethnicity or deprivation level in the percentage prescribed either SGLT2 inhibitors, DPP-4 inhibitors or SUs as second-line antidiabetic treatment.

Emulating Target Trials With Real-World Data to Inform Health Technology Assessment: Findings and Lessons From an Application to Emergency Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: International health technology assessment (HTA) agencies recommend that real-world data (RWD) are used in some circumstances to add to the evidence base about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health interventions. The target trial framework applies the design principles of randomized-controlled trials to RWD and can help alleviate inevitable concerns about bias and design flaws with nonrandomized studies. This article aimed to tackle the lack of guidance and exemplar applications on how this methodology can be applied to RWD to inform HTA decision making. METHODS: We use Hospital Episode Statistics data from England on emergency hospital admissions from 2010 to 2019 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of emergency surgery for 2 acute gastrointestinal conditions. We draw on the case study to describe the main challenges in applying the target trial framework alongside RWD and provide recommendations for how these can be addressed in practice. RESULTS: The 4 main challenges when applying the target trial framework to RWD are (1) defining the study population, (2) defining the treatment strategies, (3) establishing time zero (baseline), and (4) adjusting for unmeasured confounding. The recommendations for how to address these challenges, mainly around the incorporation of expert judgment and use of appropriate methods for handling unmeasured confounding, are illustrated within the case study. CONCLUSIONS: The recommendations outlined in this study could help future studies seeking to inform HTA decision processes. These recommendations can complement checklists for economic evaluations and design tools for estimating treatment effectiveness in nonrandomized studies.

Using linked administrative data to aid the handling of non-response and restore sample representativeness in cohort studies: the 1958 national child development study and hospital episode statistics data.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in whether linked administrative data have the potential to aid analyses subject to missing data in cohort studies. METHODS: Using linked 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; British cohort born in 1958, n = 18,558) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we applied a LASSO variable selection approach to identify HES variables which are predictive of non-response at the age 55 sweep of NCDS. We then included these variables as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI) analyses to explore the extent to which they helped restore sample representativeness of the respondents together with the imputed non-respondents in terms of early life variables (father's social class at birth, cognitive ability at age 7) and relative to external population benchmarks (educational qualifications and marital status at age 55). RESULTS: We identified 10 HES variables that were predictive of non-response at age 55 in NCDS. For example, cohort members who had been treated for adult mental illness had more than 70% greater odds of bring non-respondents (odds ratio 1.73; 95% confidence interval 1.17, 2.51). Inclusion of these HES variables in MI analyses only helped to restore sample representativeness to a limited extent. Furthermore, there was essentially no additional gain in sample representativeness relative to analyses using only previously identified survey predictors of non-response (i.e. NCDS rather than HES variables). CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of HES variables only aided missing data handling in NCDS to a limited extent. However, these findings may not generalise to other analyses, cohorts or linked administrative datasets. This work provides a demonstration of the use of linked administrative data for the handling of missing cohort data which we hope will act as template for others.

Characterising patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms: evidence from nine UK longitudinal studies.

Multiple studies across global populations have established the primary symptoms characterising Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and long COVID. However, as symptoms may also occur in the absence of COVID-19, a lack of appropriate controls has often meant that specificity of symptoms to acute COVID-19 or long COVID, and the extent and length of time for which they are elevated after COVID-19, could not be examined. We analysed individual symptom prevalences and characterised patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms across nine UK longitudinal studies, totalling over 42,000 participants. Conducting latent class analyses separately in three groups ('no COVID-19', 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks', 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago'), the data did not support the presence of more than two distinct symptom patterns, representing high and low symptom burden, in each group. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of acute COVID-19, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath and muscle pains or aches. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of long COVID, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain or aches, difficulty concentrating and chest tightness. The identified symptom patterns among individuals with COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago were strongly associated with self-reported length of time unable to function as normal due to COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that the symptom pattern identified corresponds to long COVID. Building the evidence base regarding typical long COVID symptoms will improve diagnosis of this condition and the ability to elicit underlying biological mechanisms, leading to better patient access to treatment and services.

Worldwide trends in the burden of asthma symptoms in school-aged children: Global Asthma Network Phase I cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children globally. The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I study aimed to determine if the worldwide burden of asthma symptoms is changing. METHODS: This updated cross-sectional study used the same methods as the International study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase III. Asthma symptoms were assessed from centres that completed GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phase I (1993-95), ISAAC Phase III (2001-03), or both. We included individuals from two age groups (children aged 6-7 years and adolescents aged 13-14 years) who self-completed written questionnaires at school. We estimated the 10-year rate of change in prevalence of current wheeze, severe asthma symptoms, ever having asthma, exercise wheeze, and night cough (defined by core questions in the questionnaire) for each centre, and we estimated trends across world regions and income levels using mixed-effects linear regression models with region and country income level as confounders. FINDINGS: Overall, 119 795 participants from 27 centres in 14 countries were included: 74 361 adolescents (response rate 90%) and 45 434 children (response rate 79%). About one in ten individuals of both age groups had wheeze in the preceding year, of whom almost half had severe symptoms. Most centres showed a change in prevalence of 2 SE or more between ISAAC Phase III to GAN Phase I. Over the 27-year period (1993-2020), adolescents showed a significant decrease in percentage point prevalence per decade in severe asthma symptoms (-0·37, 95% CI -0·69 to -0·04) and an increase in ever having asthma (1·25, 0·67 to 1·83) and night cough (4·25, 3·06 to 5·44), which was also found in children (3·21, 1·80 to 4·62). The prevalence of current wheeze decreased in low-income countries (-1·37, -2·47 to -0·27], in children and -1·67, -2·70 to -0·64, in adolescents) and increased in lower-middle-income countries (1·99, 0·33 to 3·66, in children and 1·69, 0·13 to 3·25, in adolescents), but it was stable in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Trends in prevalence and severity of asthma symptoms over the past three decades varied by age group, country income, region, and centre. The high worldwide burden of severe asthma symptoms would be mitigated by enabling access to effective therapies for asthma. FUNDING: International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Boehringer Ingelheim New Zealand, AstraZeneca Educational Grant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, European Research Council, and Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

The burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in adults in 17 countries: GAN Phase I study.

AIMS: Asthma, hay fever and eczema are three common chronic conditions. There have been no recent multi-country data on the burden of these three conditions in adults; the aims of this study are to fill this evidence gap. METHODS: The Global Asthma Network Phase I is a multi-country cross-sectional population-based study using the same core methodology as the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood Phase III. It provides data on the burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in children and adolescents, and, for the first time, in their parents/guardians. RESULTS: Data were available from 193 912 adults (104 061 female; mean±sd age 38±7.5 years) in 43 centres in 17 countries. The overall prevalence (range) of symptoms was 6.6% (0.9-32.7%) for current wheeze, 4.4% (0.9-29.0%) for asthma ever, 14.4% (2.8-45.7%) for hay fever ever and 9.9% (1.6-29.5%) for eczema ever. Centre prevalence varied considerably both between countries and within countries. There was a moderate correlation between hay fever ever and asthma ever, and between eczema ever and hay fever ever at the centre level. There were moderate to strong correlations between indicators of the burden of disease reported in adults and the two younger age groups. CONCLUSION: We found evidence for a substantial burden of asthma, hay fever ever and eczema ever in the countries examined, highlighting the major public health importance of these diseases. Prevention strategies and equitable access to effective and affordable treatments for these three conditions would help mitigate the avoidable morbidity they cause.

The burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in children in 25 countries: GAN Phase I study.

AIMS: There have been no worldwide standardised surveys of prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in school children for 15 years. The present study aims to provide this information. METHODS: Following the exact International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology (cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey), Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I was carried out between 2015 and 2020 in many centres worldwide. RESULTS: The study included 157 784 adolescents (13-14 years of age) in 63 centres in 25 countries and 101 777 children (6-7 years of age) in 44 centres in 16 countries. The current prevalence of symptoms, respectively, was 11.0% and 9.1% for asthma, 13.3% and 7.7% for rhinoconjunctivitis and 6.4% and 5.9% for eczema. The prevalence of asthma ever was 10.5% and 7.6%, hay fever ever was 15.2% and 11.1% and eczema ever was 10.6% and 13.4%, respectively. Centres in low or lower middle gross national income countries (LICs or LMICs) had significantly lower prevalence of the three disease symptoms and diagnoses (except for hay fever). In children, the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms was higher in boys, while the reverse occurred among adolescents. For eczema, while the prevalence among female adolescents was double that of males, there was no sex difference among children. Centre accounted for non-negligible variability in all disease symptoms (10-20%). CONCLUSION: The burdens of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema vary widely among the limited number of countries studied. Although symptom prevalence is lower in LICs and LMICs, it represents a considerable burden everywhere studied.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) to minimise job losses. Our aim was to investigate associations between furlough and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We analysed data on 25,092 participants aged 16-66 years from eight UK longitudinal studies. Changes in employment, including being furloughed, were based on employment status before and during the first lockdown. Health behaviours included fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and sleep. Study-specific estimates obtained using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic health and health behaviours, were statistically pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, and education. RESULTS: Across studies, between 8 and 25% of participants were furloughed. Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were slightly less likely to be physically inactive (RR = 0.85; [95% CI 0.75-0.97]; I 2 = 59%) and did not differ overall with respect to low fruit and vegetable consumption or atypical sleep, although findings for sleep were heterogenous (I 2 = 85%). In stratified analyses, furlough was associated with lower fruit and vegetable consumption among males (RR = 1.11; [1.01-1.22]; I 2 = 0%) but not females (RR = 0.84; [0.68-1.04]; I 2 = 65%). Considering changes in quantity, furloughed workers were more likely than those who remained working to report increases in fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise, and hours of sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Those furloughed exhibited similar health behaviours to those who remained in employment during the initial stages of the pandemic. There was little evidence to suggest that adoption of such social protection policies in the post-pandemic recovery period and during future economic crises had adverse effects on population health behaviours.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and smoking, alcohol consumption and vaping during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Employment disruptions can impact smoking and alcohol consumption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented furlough schemes to prevent job loss. We examine how furlough was associated with smoking, vaping and alcohol consumption in the UK. METHODS: Data from 27,841 participants in eight UK adult longitudinal surveys were analysed. Participants self-reported employment status and current smoking, current vaping and alcohol consumption (>4 days/week or 5+ drinks per typical occasion) both before and during the early stages of the pandemic (April-July 2020). Risk ratios were estimated within each study using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic behaviour. Findings were synthesised using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Compared to stable employment and after adjustment for pre-pandemic characteristics, furlough was not associated with smoking (ARR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.95-1.16; I2: 10%), vaping (ARR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.74-1.08; I2: 0%) or drinking (ARR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.13; I2: 48%). There were similar findings for no longer being employed, and stable unemployment, though this varied by sex: stable unemployment was associated with smoking for women (ARR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.00-1.82; I2: 47%) but not men (0.84; 95% CI: 0.67-1.05; I2: 0%). No longer being employed was associated with vaping among women (ARR = 2.74; 95% CI: 1.59-4.72; I2: 0%) but not men (ARR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.83-1.87; I2: 0%). CONCLUSIONS: We found no clear evidence of furlough or unemployment having adverse impacts on smoking, vaping or drinking behaviours during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Differences in risk compared to those who remained employed were largely explained by pre-pandemic characteristics.

Pre-pandemic mental health and disruptions to healthcare, economic and housing outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from 12 UK longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives and livelihoods, and people already experiencing mental ill health may have been especially vulnerable. AIMS: Quantify mental health inequalities in disruptions to healthcare, economic activity and housing. METHOD: We examined data from 59 482 participants in 12 UK longitudinal studies with data collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Within each study, we estimated the association between psychological distress assessed pre-pandemic and disruptions since the start of the pandemic to healthcare (medication access, procedures or appointments), economic activity (employment, income or working hours) and housing (change of address or household composition). Estimates were pooled across studies. RESULTS: Across the analysed data-sets, 28% to 77% of participants experienced at least one disruption, with 2.3-33.2% experiencing disruptions in two or more domains. We found 1 s.d. higher pre-pandemic psychological distress was associated with (a) increased odds of any healthcare disruptions (odds ratio (OR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.20-1.40), with fully adjusted odds ratios ranging from 1.24 (95% CI 1.09-1.41) for disruption to procedures to 1.33 (95% CI 1.20-1.49) for disruptions to prescriptions or medication access; (b) loss of employment (odds ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21) and income (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 -1.19), and reductions in working hours/furlough (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.09) and (c) increased likelihood of experiencing a disruption in at least two domains (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.18-1.32) or in one domain (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.16), relative to no disruption. There were no associations with housing disruptions (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: People experiencing psychological distress pre-pandemic were more likely to experience healthcare and economic disruptions, and clusters of disruptions across multiple domains during the pandemic. Failing to address these disruptions risks further widening mental health inequalities.

Worldwide time trends in prevalence of symptoms of rhinoconjunctivitis in children: Global Asthma Network Phase I.

BACKGROUND: The Global Asthma Network (GAN), by using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology, has updated trends in prevalence of symptoms of childhood allergic diseases, including non-infective rhinitis and conjunctivitis ('rhinoconjunctivitis'), which is reported here. METHODS: Prevalence and severity of rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed by questionnaire among schoolchildren in GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phase I and III surveys 15-23 years apart. Absolute rates of change in prevalence were estimated for each centre and modelled by multi-level linear regression to compare trends by age group, time period and per capita national income. RESULTS: Twenty-seven GAN centres in 14 countries surveyed 74,361 13- to 14-year-olds ('adolescents') and 45,434 6- to 7-year-olds ('children'), with average response proportions of 90% and 79%, respectively. Many centres showed highly significant (p < .001) changes in prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis in the past year ('current rhinoconjunctivitis') compared with ISAAC. The direction and magnitude of centre-level trends varied significantly (p < .001) both within and between countries. Overall, current rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence decreased slightly from ISAAC Phase III to GAN: -1.32% per 10 years, 95% CI [-2.93%, +0.30%] among adolescents; and -0.44% [-1.29%, +0.42%] among children. Together, these differed significantly (p < .001) from the upward trend within ISAAC. Among adolescents, centre-level trends in current rhinoconjunctivitis were highly correlated with those for eczema symptoms (rho = 0.72, p < .0001) but not with centre-level trends in asthma symptoms (rho = 0.15, p = .48). Among children, these correlations were positive but not significant. CONCLUSION: Symptoms of non-infective rhinoconjunctivitis among schoolchildren may no longer be on the increase globally, although trends vary substantially within and between countries.

Distinct Body Mass Index Trajectories to Young-Adulthood Obesity and Their Different Cardiometabolic Consequences.

[Figure: see text].

Atopic eczema in adulthood and mortality: UK population-based cohort study, 1998-2016.

BACKGROUND: Atopic eczema affects up to 10% of adults and is becoming more common globally. Few studies have assessed whether atopic eczema increases the risk of death. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether adults with atopic eczema were at increased risk of death overall and by specific causes and to assess whether the risk varied by atopic eczema severity and activity. METHODS: The study was a population-based matched cohort study using UK primary care electronic health care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linked hospitalization data from Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics from 1998 to 2016. RESULTS: A total of 526,736 patients with atopic eczema were matched to 2,567,872 individuals without atopic eczema. The median age at entry was 41.8 years, and the median follow-up time was 4.5 years. There was limited evidence of increased hazard for all-cause mortality in those with atopic eczema (hazard ratio = 1.04; 99% CI = 1.03-1.06), but there were somewhat stronger associations (8%-14% increased hazard) for deaths due to infectious, digestive, and genitourinary causes. Differences on the absolute scale were modest owing to low overall mortality rates. Mortality risk increased markedly with eczema severity and activity. For example, patients with severe atopic eczema had a 62% increased hazard (hazard ratio = 1.62; 99% CI = 1.54-1.71) for mortality compared with those without eczema, with the strongest associations for infectious, respiratory, and genitourinary causes. CONCLUSION: The increased hazards for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were largely restricted to those with the most severe or predominantly active atopic eczema. Understanding the reasons for these increased hazards for mortality is an urgent priority.

Are environmental risk factors for current wheeze in the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) phase three due to reverse causation?

BACKGROUND: Phase Three of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) measured the global prevalence of symptoms of asthma in children. We undertook comprehensive analyses addressing risk factors for asthma symptoms in combination, at both the individual and the school level, to explore the potential role of reverse causation due to selective avoidance or confounding by indication. OBJECTIVE: To explore the role of reverse causation in risk factors of asthma symptoms. METHODS: We compared two sets of multilevel logistic regression analyses, using (a) individual level exposure data and (b) school level average exposure (ie prevalence), in two different age groups. In individual level analyses, reverse causation is a possible concern if individual level exposure statuses were changed as a result of asthma symptoms or diagnosis. School level analyses may suffer from ecologic confounding, but reverse causation is less of a concern because individual changes in exposure status as a result of asthma symptoms would only have a small effect on overall school exposure levels. RESULTS: There were 131 924 children aged 6-7 years (2428 schools, 25 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (odds ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval 1.97-2.16), early life antibiotic use (1.65; 1.58-1.73) and open fire cooking (1.44; 1.26-1.65). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. There were 238 586 adolescents aged 13-14 years (2072 schools, 42 countries) with complete exposure, outcome and confounder data. The strongest associations in individual level analyses (fully adjusted) were for current paracetamol use (1.80; 1.75-1.86), cooking on an open fire (1.32; 1.22-1.43) and maternal tobacco use (1.23; 1.18-1.27). In school level analyses, these risk factors again showed increased risks. CONCLUSIONS & CLINICAL RELEVANCE: These analyses strengthen the potentially causal interpretation of previously reported individual level findings, by providing evidence against reverse causation.

Can childhood obesity influence later chronic kidney disease?

Childhood overweight and obesity affects more and more children. Whilst associations of childhood overweight with later outcomes such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease have been well documented, less is known about the association of childhood overweight and obesity with kidney disease. We review the existing evidence for the association of childhood obesity with markers of childhood and adult kidney disease. Whilst there is some evidence for an association, studies have not been able to distinguish between childhood being a sensitive time to develop later kidney problems, or whether observed associations of childhood obesity with poor outcomes are driven by greater lifelong exposure to obesity.

Decline in Kidney Function among Apparently Healthy Young Adults at Risk of Mesoamerican Nephropathy.

Background Epidemic levels of CKD of undetermined cause, termed Mesoamerican nephropathy in Central America, have been found in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the natural history of, and factors associated with, loss of kidney function in a population at high risk for this disease.Methods We conducted a 2-year prospective, longitudinal study with follow-up every 6 months in nine rural communities in northwestern Nicaragua and included all men (n=263) and a random sample of women (n=87) ages 18-30 years old without self-reported CKD, diabetes, or hypertension. We used growth mixture modeling to identify subgroups of eGFR trajectory and weighted multinomial logistic regression to examine associations with proposed risk factors.Results Among men, we identified three subpopulations of eGFR trajectory (mean baseline eGFR; mean eGFR change over follow-up): 81% remained stable (116 ml/min per 1.73 m2; -0.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year), 9.5% experienced rapid decline despite normal baseline function (112 ml/min per 1.73 m2; -18.2 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year), and 9.5% had baseline dysfunction (58 ml/min per 1.73 m2; -3.8 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year). Among women: 96.6% remained stable (121 ml/min per 1.73 m2; -0.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year), and 3.4% experienced rapid decline (132 ml/min per 1.73 m2; -14.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; n=3 women). Among men, outdoor and agricultural work and lack of shade availability during work breaks, reported at baseline, were associated with rapid decline.Conclusions Although Mesoamerican nephropathy is associated with agricultural work, other factors may also contribute to this disease.

'It's because I like things it's a status and he buys me airtime': exploring the role of transactional sex in young women's consumption patterns in rural South Africa (secondary findings from HPTN 068).

BACKGROUND: 'Transactional sex', defined as a non-marital, non-commercial sexual relationship in which money or material goods are exchanged for sex, is associated with young women's increased vulnerability to HIV infection. Existing research illustrates that the motivations for transactional sex are complex. The fulfilment of psycho-social needs such as the need to belong to a peer group are important factors underlying young women's desires to obtain certain consumption items and thus engage in transactional sex. METHODS: We use a mixed-methods approach to explore the relationship between transactional sex and consumption patterns among young women in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. In the secondary analysis of 693 sexually active young women, we use factor analysis to group the different consumption items and we use multivariable logistic regression to demonstrate the relationship between transactional sex and consumption patterns. The qualitative study uses five focus group discussions and 19 in-depth interviews to explore further young women's motivations for acquiring different consumption items. RESULTS: The quantitative results show that young women that engage in transactional sex have higher odds of consuming items for entertainment (e.g., movie tickets) than on practical items (e.g., food and groceries). The qualitative findings also revealed that young women's perceptions of items that were considered a 'need' were strongly influenced by peer pressure and a desire for improved status. Further, there was a perception that emerged from the qualitative data that relationships with sugar daddies offered a way to acquire consumer goods associated with a 'modern lifestyle', such as items for personal enhancement and entertainment. However, young women seem aware of the risks associated with such relationships. More importantly, they also develop relationship with partners of similar age, albeit with the continued expectation of material exchange, despite engaging in the relationship for love. CONCLUSION: This study shows that young women are willing to take certain risks in order to have a degree of financial independence. Interventions that provide alternative methods of attaining this independence, such as the provision of cash transfers may have potential in preventing them from engaging in transactional relationships. Further, the psycho-social reasons that drive young women's motivations for consumption items resulting in risky sexual behaviours need to be better understood.