Avoiding critical thresholds through effective monitoring.

A major challenge in sustainability science is identifying targets that maximize ecosystem benefits to humanity while minimizing the risk of crossing critical system thresholds. One critical threshold is the biomass at which populations become so depleted that their population growth rates become negative-depensation. Here, we evaluate how the value of monitoring information increases as a natural resource spends more time near the critical threshold. This benefit emerges because higher monitoring precision promotes higher yield and a greater capacity to recover from overharvest. We show that precautionary buffers that trigger increased monitoring precision as resource levels decline may offer a way to minimize monitoring costs and maximize profits. In a world of finite resources, improving our understanding of the trade-off between precision in estimates of population status and the costs of mismanagement will benefit stakeholders that shoulder the burden of these economic and social costs.

A structured seabird population model reveals how alternative forage fish control rules benefit seabirds and fisheries.

Fisheries for forage fish may affect the survival and reproduction of piscivorous predators, especially seabirds. However, seabirds have evolved life history strategies to cope with natural fluctuations in prey and it is difficult to separate effects of fishing on seabirds from impacts of natural variability. To date, potential impacts of forage fisheries on seabirds have mainly been explored using ecosystem models that simplify seabird-forage-fish dynamics. We sought to explore how different forage fish harvest policies affect seabirds, accounting for structured population dynamics, life history specifics, and variation in forage fish dependencies across life stages; and how impacts vary across seabird and forage fish life histories. To explore these impacts, we developed an age-stage structured seabird model that incorporates seabird diet specialization, foraging behavior, and reproductive strategy, as well as different functional responses between prey availability and adult survival, juvenile survival, reproductive success, and breeder propensity. We parameterized this model for two contrasting seabird life histories: (1) a low fecundity, limited foraging range, diet specialist ("restricted"); and (2) a high fecundity, wide ranging, diet generalist ("flexible"). Each was paired with two different forage fish prey archetypes that were fished under various control rules. The restricted seabird population was expectedly less robust to constant fishing pressure than the flexible seabird, and this sensitivity was mainly due to functional response parameterization, rather than other life history parameters. Particularly, the restricted seabird was highly sensitive to the relationship between prey availability and adult survival but was not sensitive to the relationship between prey and reproductive success. An adaptive biomass-limit harvest rule for forage fish resulted in substantially higher seabird abundance compared to constant fishing across all scenarios, with minimal trade-offs to the fishery (depending on fishery management objectives). However, mechanisms governing the impact of the forage fish fishery on the seabird varied by forage fish type. Therefore, tailoring forage fish management strategies to forage fish life history can lead to mutually acceptable outcomes for fisheries and seabirds. If data or time are limited, an adaptive control rule is likely a safe bet for meeting seabird conservation objectives with limited impacts to fisheries.

Limited evidence for sardine and anchovy asynchrony: re-examining an old story.

Asynchronous fluctuations in abundance between species with similar ecological roles can stabilize food webs and support coexistence. Sardine (Sardinops spp.) and anchovy (Engraulis spp.) have long been used as an example of this pattern because low-frequency variation in catches of these species appears to occur out of phase, suggesting that fisheries and generalist predators could be buffered against shifts in productivity of a single species. Using landings data and biomass and recruitment estimates from five regions, we find that species do not have equivalent peak abundances, suggesting that high abundance in one species does not compensate for low abundance in the other. We find that globally there is a stronger pattern of asynchrony in landings compared to biomass, such that landings data have exaggerated the patterns of asynchrony. Finally, we show that power to detect decadal asynchrony is poor, requiring a time series more than twice the length of the period of fluctuation. These results indicate that it is unlikely that the dynamics of these two species are compensatory enough to buffer fisheries and predators from changes in abundance, and that the measurements of asynchrony have largely been a statistical artefact of using short time series and landings data to infer ecology.

Fishing amplifies forage fish population collapses.

Forage fish support the largest fisheries in the world but also play key roles in marine food webs by transferring energy from plankton to upper trophic-level predators, such as large fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Fishing can, thereby, have far reaching consequences on marine food webs unless safeguards are in place to avoid depleting forage fish to dangerously low levels, where dependent predators are most vulnerable. However, disentangling the contributions of fishing vs. natural processes on population dynamics has been difficult because of the sensitivity of these stocks to environmental conditions. Here, we overcome this difficulty by collating population time series for forage fish populations that account for nearly two-thirds of global catch of forage fish to identify the fingerprint of fisheries on their population dynamics. Forage fish population collapses shared a set of common and unique characteristics: high fishing pressure for several years before collapse, a sharp drop in natural population productivity, and a lagged response to reduce fishing pressure. Lagged response to natural productivity declines can sharply amplify the magnitude of naturally occurring population fluctuations. Finally, we show that the magnitude and frequency of collapses are greater than expected from natural productivity characteristics and therefore, likely attributed to fishing. The durations of collapses, however, were not different from those expected based on natural productivity shifts. A risk-based management scheme that reduces fishing when populations become scarce would protect forage fish and their predators from collapse with little effect on long-term average catches.

Coral bleaching response index: a new tool to standardize and compare susceptibility to thermal bleaching.

As coral bleaching events become more frequent and intense, our ability to predict and mitigate future events depends upon our capacity to interpret patterns within previous episodes. Responses to thermal stress vary among coral species; however the diversity of coral assemblages, environmental conditions, assessment protocols, and severity criteria applied in the global effort to document bleaching patterns creates challenges for the development of a systemic metric of taxon-specific response. Here, we describe and validate a novel framework to standardize bleaching response records and estimate their measurement uncertainties. Taxon-specific bleaching and mortality records (2036) of 374 coral taxa (during 1982-2006) at 316 sites were standardized to average percent tissue area affected and a taxon-specific bleaching response index (taxon-BRI) was calculated by averaging taxon-specific response over all sites where a taxon was present. Differential bleaching among corals was widely variable (mean taxon-BRI = 25.06 ± 18.44%, ±SE). Coral response may differ because holobionts are biologically different (intrinsic factors), they were exposed to different environmental conditions (extrinsic factors), or inconsistencies in reporting (measurement uncertainty). We found that both extrinsic and intrinsic factors have comparable influence within a given site and event (60% and 40% of bleaching response variance of all records explained, respectively). However, when responses of individual taxa are averaged across sites to obtain taxon-BRI, differential response was primarily driven by intrinsic differences among taxa (65% of taxon-BRI variance explained), not conditions across sites (6% explained), nor measurement uncertainty (29% explained). Thus, taxon-BRI is a robust metric of intrinsic susceptibility of coral taxa. Taxon-BRI provides a broadly applicable framework for standardization and error estimation for disparate historical records and collection of novel data, allowing for unprecedented accuracy in parameterization of mechanistic and predictive models and conservation plans.

Population diversity in Pacific herring of the Puget Sound, USA.

Demographic, functional, or habitat diversity can confer stability on populations via portfolio effects (PEs) that integrate across multiple ecological responses and buffer against environmental impacts. The prevalence of these PEs in aquatic organisms is as yet unknown, and can be difficult to quantify; however, understanding mechanisms that stabilize populations in the face of environmental change is a key concern in ecology. Here, we examine PEs in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in Puget Sound (USA) using a 40-year time series of biomass data for 19 distinct spawning population units collected using two survey types. Multivariate auto-regressive state-space models show independent dynamics among spawning subpopulations, suggesting that variation in herring production is partially driven by local effects at spawning grounds or during the earliest life history stages. This independence at the subpopulation level confers a stabilizing effect on the overall Puget Sound spawning stock, with herring being as much as three times more stable in the face of environmental perturbation than a single population unit of the same size. Herring populations within Puget Sound are highly asynchronous but share a common negative growth rate and may be influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The biocomplexity in the herring stock shown here demonstrates that preserving spatial and demographic diversity can increase the stability of this herring population and its availability as a resource for consumers.

Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science.

To address our climate emergency, "we must rapidly, radically reshape society"-Johnson & Wilkinson, All We Can Save. In science, reshaping requires formidable technical (cloud, coding, reproducibility) and cultural shifts (mindsets, hybrid collaboration, inclusion). We are a group of cross-government and academic scientists that are exploring better ways of working and not being too entrenched in our bureaucracies to do better science, support colleagues, and change the culture at our organizations. We share much-needed success stories and action for what we can all do to reshape science as part of the Open Science movement and 2023 Year of Open Science.

Reducing vessel noise increases foraging in endangered killer whales.

Disturbance from underwater noise is one of the primary threats to the critically endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKWs). Previous studies have demonstrated that SRKWs spend less time feeding when vessels are present. In 2018, we measured the effects of a voluntary vessel slowdown action in SRKW critical habitat to assess whether ship speed (and related source level) affects foraging behaviour. Observations of SRKWs and ships were collected from land-based sites on San Juan Island, WA, USA, overlooking the Haro Strait slow-down area. Exploratory analyses found little support for a linear relationship between ship speed and SRKW behaviour, but strong support between received noise level from ships and the probability of SRKWs engaging in foraging activity. Reducing ship speed, and therefore ship noise amplitude will help decrease the probability of ship noise disrupting SRKW foraging activity and may help to increase the proportion of accessible salmon.

Modulation of light-enhancement to symbiotic algae by light-scattering in corals and evolutionary trends in bleaching.

Calcium carbonate skeletons of scleractinian corals amplify light availability to their algal symbionts by diffuse scattering, optimizing photosynthetic energy acquisition. However, the mechanism of scattering and its role in coral evolution and dissolution of algal symbioses during "bleaching" events are largely unknown. Here we show that differences in skeletal fractal architecture at nano/micro-lengthscales within 96 coral taxa result in an 8-fold variation in light-scattering and considerably alter the algal light environment. We identified a continuum of properties that fall between two extremes: (1) corals with low skeletal fractality that are efficient at transporting and redistributing light throughout the colony with low scatter but are at higher risk of bleaching and (2) corals with high skeletal fractality that are inefficient at transporting and redistributing light with high scatter and are at lower risk of bleaching. While levels of excess light derived from the coral skeleton is similar in both groups, the low-scatter corals have a higher rate of light-amplification increase when symbiont concentration is reduced during bleaching, thus creating a positive feedback-loop between symbiont concentration and light-amplification that exposes the remaining symbionts to increasingly higher light intensities. By placing our findings in an evolutionary framework, in conjunction with a novel empirical index of coral bleaching susceptibility, we find significant correlations between bleaching susceptibility and light-scattering despite rich homoplasy in both characters; suggesting that the cost of enhancing light-amplification to the algae is revealed in decreased resilience of the partnership to stress.