The association between frailty, long-term care home characteristics and COVID-19 mortality before and after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The relative contributions of long-term care (LTC) resident frailty and home-level characteristics on COVID-19 mortality has not been well studied. We examined the association between resident frailty and home-level characteristics with 30-day COVID-19 mortality before and after the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in LTC. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of LTC residents with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario, Canada. We used multi-level multivariable logistic regression to examine associations between 30-day COVID-19 mortality, the Hubbard Frailty Index (FI), and resident and home-level characteristics. We compared explanatory models before and after vaccine availability. RESULTS: There were 11,179 and 3,655 COVID-19 cases in the pre- and post-vaccine period, respectively. The 30-day COVID-19 mortality was 25.9 and 20.0% during the same periods. The median odds ratios for 30-day COVID-19 mortality between LTC homes were 1.50 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.41-1.65) and 1.62 (95% CrI: 1.46-1.96), respectively. In the pre-vaccine period, 30-day COVID-19 mortality was higher for males and those of greater age. For every 0.1 increase in the Hubbard FI, the odds of death were 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42-1.56) times higher. The association between frailty and mortality remained consistent in the post-vaccine period, but sex and age were partly attenuated. Despite the substantial home-level variation, no home-level characteristic examined was significantly associated with 30-day COVID-19 mortality during either period. INTERPRETATION: Frailty is consistently associated with COVID-19 mortality before and after the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Home-level characteristics previously attributed to COVID-19 outcomes do not explain significant home-to-home variation in COVID-19 mortality.

Rates of health services use among residents of retirement homes in Ontario: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because there are no standardized reporting systems specific to residents of retirement homes in North America, little is known about the health of this distinct population of older adults. We evaluated rates of health services use by residents of retirement homes relative to those of residents of long-term care homes and other populations of older adults. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population health administrative data from 2018 on adults 65 years or older in Ontario. We matched the postal codes of individuals to those of licensed retirement homes to identify residents of retirement homes. Outcomes included rates of hospital-based care and physician visits. RESULTS: We identified 54 733 residents of 757 retirement homes (mean age 86.7 years, 69.0% female) and 2 354 385 residents of other settings. Compared to residents of long-term care homes, residents of retirement homes had significantly higher rates per 1000 person months of emergency department visits (10.62 v. 4.48, adjusted relative rate [RR] 2.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.55 to 2.67), hospital admissions (5.42 v. 2.08, adjusted RR 2.77, 95% CI 2.71 to 2.82), alternate level of care (ALC) days (6.01 v. 2.96, adjusted RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.54), and specialist physician visits (6.27 v. 3.21, adjusted RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.61 to 1.68), but a significantly lower rate of primary care visits (16.71 v. 108.47, adjusted RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.14). INTERPRETATION: Residents of retirement homes are a distinct population with higher rates of hospital-based care. Our findings can help to inform policy debates about the need for more coordinated primary and supportive health care in privately operated congregate care homes.

The mobility gap: estimating mobility thresholds required to control SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions remain the primary means of controlling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until vaccination coverage is sufficient to achieve herd immunity. We used anonymized smartphone mobility measures to quantify the mobility level needed to control SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., mobility threshold), and the difference relative to the observed mobility level (i.e., mobility gap). METHODS: We conducted a time-series study of the weekly incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada from Mar. 15, 2020, to Mar. 6, 2021. The outcome was weekly growth rate, defined as the ratio of cases in a given week versus the previous week. We evaluated the effects of average time spent outside the home in the previous 3 weeks using a log-normal regression model, accounting for province, week and mean temperature. We calculated the SARS-CoV-2 mobility threshold and gap. RESULTS: Across the 51-week study period, a total of 888 751 people were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Each 10% increase in the mobility gap was associated with a 25% increase in the SARS-CoV-2 weekly case growth rate (ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.20-1.29). Compared to the prepandemic baseline mobility of 100%, the mobility threshold was highest in the summer (69%; interquartile range [IQR] 67%-70%), and dropped to 54% in winter 2021 (IQR 52%-55%); a mobility gap was present in Canada from July 2020 until the last week of December 2020. INTERPRETATION: Mobility strongly and consistently predicts weekly case growth, and low levels of mobility are needed to control SARS-CoV-2 through spring 2021. Mobility measures from anonymized smartphone data can be used to guide provincial and regional loosening and tightening of physical distancing measures.

Risk factors for outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection at retirement homes in Ontario, Canada: a population-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in retirement homes (also known as assisted living facilities) is largely unknown. We examined the association between home-and community-level characteristics and the risk of outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in retirement homes since the beginning of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of licensed retirement homes in Ontario, Canada, from Mar. 1 to Dec. 18, 2020. Our primary outcome was an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection (≥ 1 resident or staff case confirmed by validated nucleic acid amplification assay). We used time-dependent proportional hazards methods to model the associations between retirement home- and community-level characteristics and outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Our cohort included all 770 licensed retirement homes in Ontario, which housed 56 491 residents. There were 273 (35.5%) retirement homes with 1 or more outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection, involving 1944 (3.5%) residents and 1101 staff (3.0%). Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were distributed unevenly across retirement homes, with 2487 (81.7%) resident and staff cases occurring in 77 (10%) homes. The adjusted hazard of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a retirement home was positively associated with homes that had a large resident capacity, were co-located with a long-term care facility, were part of larger chains, offered many services onsite, saw increases in regional incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and were located in a region with a higher community-level ethnic concentration. INTERPRETATION: Readily identifiable characteristics of retirement homes are independently associated with outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and can support risk identification and priority for vaccination.

Perspectives on ageing: a qualitative study of the expectations, priorities, needs and values of older people from two Canadian provinces.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the needs and values of older people is vital to build responsive policies, services and research agendas in this time of demographic transition. Older peoples' expectations and priorities for ageing, as well as their beliefs regarding challenges facing ageing societies, are multi-faceted and require regular updates as populations' age. OBJECTIVE: To develop an understanding of self-perceptions of ageing and societal ageing among Canadian retirees of the education sector to define a meaningful health research agenda. METHODS: We conducted four qualitative focus groups among 27 members of a Canadian retired educators' organisation. Data were analysed using an inductive thematic approach. RESULTS: We identified four overarching themes: (1) vulnerability to health challenges despite a healthier generation, (2) maintaining health and social connection for optimal ageing, (3) strengthening person-centred healthcare for ageing societies and (4) mobilising a critical mass to enact change. Participants' preconceptions of ageing differed from their personal experiences. They prioritised maintaining health and social connections and felt that current healthcare practices disempowered them to manage and optimise their health. Although the sheer size of their demographic instilled optimism of their potential to garner positive change, participants felt they lacked mechanisms to contribute to developing solutions to address this transition. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a need for health research that improves perceptions of ageing and supports health system transformations to deliver person-centred care. Opportunities exist to harness their activism to engage older people as partners in shaping solution-oriented research that can support planning for an ageing society.

For-profit long-term care homes and the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and resident deaths.

BACKGROUND: Long-term care (LTC) homes have been the epicentre of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Canada to date. Previous research shows that for-profit LTC homes deliver inferior care across a variety of outcome and process measures, raising the question of whether for-profit homes have had worse COVID-19 outcomes than nonprofit homes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all LTC homes in Ontario, Canada, from Mar. 29 to May 20, 2020, using a COVID-19 outbreak database maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care. We used hierarchical logistic and count-based methods to model the associations between profit status of LTC homes (for-profit, nonprofit or municipal) and COVID-19 outbreaks in LTC homes, the extent of COVID-19 outbreaks (number of residents infected), and deaths of residents from COVID-19. RESULTS: The analysis included all 623 Ontario LTC homes, comprising 75 676 residents; 360 LTC homes (57.7%) were for profit, 162 (26.0%) were nonprofit, and 101 (16.2%) were municipal homes. There were 190 (30.5%) outbreaks of COVID-19 in LTC homes, involving 5218 residents and resulting in 1452 deaths, with an overall case fatality rate of 27.8%. The odds of a COVID-19 outbreak were associated with the incidence of COVID-19 in the public health unit region surrounding an LTC home (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-3.05), the number of residents (adjusted OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.18-1.61), and older design standards of the home (adjusted OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.01-2.38), but not profit status. For-profit status was associated with both the extent of an outbreak in an LTC home (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.96, 95% CI 1.26-3.05) and the number of resident deaths (adjusted RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.07), compared with nonprofit homes. These associations were mediated by a higher prevalence of older design standards in for-profit LTC homes and chain ownership. INTERPRETATION: For-profit status is associated with the extent of an outbreak of COVID-19 in LTC homes and the number of resident deaths, but not the likelihood of outbreaks. Differences between for-profit and nonprofit homes are largely explained by older design standards and chain ownership, which should be a focus of infection control efforts and future policy.

Association of Receipt of Palliative Care Interventions With Health Care Use, Quality of Life, and Symptom Burden Among Adults With Chronic Noncancer Illness: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: The evidence for palliative care exists predominantly for patients with cancer. The effect of palliative care on important end-of-life outcomes in patients with noncancer illness is unclear. Objective: To measure the association between palliative care and acute health care use, quality of life (QOL), and symptom burden in adults with chronic noncancer illnesses. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and PubMed from inception to April 18, 2020. Study Selection: Randomized clinical trials of palliative care interventions in adults with chronic noncancer illness. Studies involving at least 50% of patients with cancer were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two reviewers independently screened, selected, and extracted data from studies. Narrative synthesis was conducted for all trials. All outcomes were analyzed using random-effects meta-analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Acute health care use (hospitalizations and emergency department use), disease-generic and disease-specific quality of life (QOL), and symptoms, with estimates of QOL translated to units of the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Palliative Care scale (range, 0 [worst] to 184 [best]; minimal clinically important difference, 9 points) and symptoms translated to units of the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale global distress score (range, 0 [best] to 90 [worst]; minimal clinically important difference, 5.7 points). Results: Twenty-eight trials provided data on 13 664 patients (mean age, 74 years; 46% were women). Ten trials were of heart failure (n = 4068 patients), 11 of mixed disease (n = 8119), 4 of dementia (n = 1036), and 3 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 441). Palliative care, compared with usual care, was statistically significantly associated with less emergency department use (9 trials [n = 2712]; 20% vs 24%; odds ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.68-1.00]; I2 = 3%), less hospitalization (14 trials [n = 3706]; 38% vs 42%; odds ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.65-0.99]; I2 = 41%), and modestly lower symptom burden (11 trials [n = 2598]; pooled standardized mean difference (SMD), -0.12; [95% CI, -0.20 to -0.03]; I2 = 0%; Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale score mean difference, -1.6 [95% CI, -2.6 to -0.4]). Palliative care was not significantly associated with disease-generic QOL (6 trials [n = 1334]; SMD, 0.18 [95% CI, -0.24 to 0.61]; I2 = 87%; Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Palliative Care score mean difference, 4.7 [95% CI, -6.3 to 15.9]) or disease-specific measures of QOL (11 trials [n = 2204]; SMD, 0.07 [95% CI, -0.09 to 0.23]; I2 = 68%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials of patients with primarily noncancer illness, palliative care, compared with usual care, was statistically significantly associated with less acute health care use and modestly lower symptom burden, but there was no significant difference in quality of life. Analyses for some outcomes were based predominantly on studies of patients with heart failure, which may limit generalizability to other chronic illnesses.

Association between Physician Intensity of Antibiotic Prescribing and the Prescription of Benzodiazepines, Opioids and Proton-Pump Inhibitors to Nursing Home Residents: a Population-Based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Prescribing patterns for episodic medications, such as antibiotics, might make useful surrogate measures of a physician's overall prescribing practice because use is common, and variation exists across prescribers. However, the extent to which a physician's current antibiotic prescribing practices are associated with the rate of prescription of other potentially harmful medications remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between a physician's rate of antibiotic prescribing and their prescribing rate of benzodiazepines, opioids and proton-pump inhibitors in older adults. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study in nursing homes in Ontario, Canada, which provides comprehensive clinical, behavioural and functional information on all patients. PARTICIPANTS: 1926 physicians who provided care among 128,979 physician-patient pairs in 2015. MAIN MEASURES: Likelihood of prescribing a benzodiazepine, opioid or proton-pump inhibitor between low-, average- and high-intensity antibiotic prescribers, adjusted for patient characteristics. KEY RESULTS: Compared with average-intensity antibiotic prescribers, high-intensity prescribers had an increased likelihood of prescribing a benzodiazepine (odds ratio 1.21 [95% CI, 1.11-1.32]), an opioid (odds ratio 1.28 [95% CI, 1.17-1.39]) or a proton-pump inhibitor (odds ratio 1.38 [95% CI, 1.27-1.51]]. High-intensity antibiotic prescribers were more likely to be high prescribers of all three medications (odds ratio 6.24 [95% CI, 2.90-13.39]) and also more likely to initiate all three medications, compared with average-intensity prescribers. CONCLUSIONS: The intensity of a physician's episodic antibiotic prescribing was significantly associated with the likelihood of new and continued prescribing of opioids, benzodiazepines and proton-pump inhibitors in nursing homes. Patterns of episodic prescribing may be a useful mechanism to target physician-level interventions to optimize general prescribing behaviors, instead of prescribing behaviors for single medications.

Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and risk of genital mycotic and urinary tract infection: A population-based study of older women and men with diabetes.

AIMS: The objective of the study was to quantify the association between SGLT2 inhibitors and genital mycotic infection and between SGLT2 inhibitors and urinary tract infection (UTI) within 30 days of drug initiation among older women and men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative databases of women and men with diabetes, aged 66 years or older, in Ontario, Canada. We compared the incidence of genital mycotic infection or UTI within 30 days between new users of an SGLT2 inhibitor and of a dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitor. RESULTS: We identified 21 444 incident users of SGLT2 inhibitor and 22 463 incident users of DPP4 inhibitor. Among SGLT2 inhibitor users, there were 8848 (41%) women and the mean age at index was 71.8 ± 5 (SD) years. After adjusting for propensity score, age, sex and recent UTI, there was a 2.47-fold increased risk of genital mycotic infection with incident use of SGLT2 inhibitors (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 2.47; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.08-2.92; P < 0.001) within 30 days compared to incident use of DPP4 inhibitors. For UTI, the adjusted HR was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.78-1.00; P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Incident use of SGLT2 inhibitors among older women and men is associated with increased risk of genital mycotic infections within 30 days; there is no associated increased risk of UTI. These findings from a real-world setting provide evidence of the potential harms of SGLT2 inhibitors.

The risk of death within 5 years of first hospital admission in older adults.

BACKGROUND: The risk of death in people after their first admission to hospital or first presentation to the emergency department for any reason is not known. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of death among older adults who had had no admissions to hospital or emergency department visits in the preceding 5 years. METHODS: We used administrative data from Ontario, Canada, from 2007 to 2017 to measure the 5-year risk of death in community-dwelling adults aged 66 years and older after their first planned or unplanned hospital admission or emergency department visit, and among those who were neither admitted to hospital nor presented to the emergency department. We describe how this risk varied by age. RESULTS: Among 922 074 community-dwelling older adults, 12.7% died (116 940 deaths) over a follow-up of 3 112 528 person-years (standardized mortality rate 53.8 per 1000 person-years). After the first unplanned hospital admission, 39.7% died (59 234 deaths, standardized mortality rate 127.6 per 1000 person-years). After the first planned hospital admission, 13.0% died (10 775 deaths, standardized mortality rate 44.6 per 1000 person-years). After the first visit to the emergency department, 10.9% died (35 663 deaths, standardized mortality rate 36.2 per 1000 person-years). Among those with neither an emergency department visit nor hospital admission during follow-up, 3.1% died (11 268 deaths, standardized mortality rate 29.6 per 1000 person-years). Slightly more than half of all deaths were in those with first unplanned hospital admission (50.7%). INTERPRETATION: Death within 5 years of first unplanned hospital admission for older adults is frequent and common. Knowledge of this risk may influence counselling and patient preferences and may be useful in research and analyses for health system planning.

Facteurs de risque d'éclosion de SRAS-CoV-2 dans les résidences pour aînés en Ontario, au Canada: étude de cohorte à l'échelle de la population.

CONTEXTE: L'épidémiologie de l'infection au SRAS-CoV-2 dans les résidences pour aînés (offrant une aide à la vie autonome), est pour une bonne part inconnue. Nous avons étudié le lien entre les caractéristiques des résidences et des communautés avoisinantes et le risque d'éclosion de SRAS-CoV-2 dans les résidences pour aînés depuis le début de la première vague de la pandémie de COVID-19. MÉTHODES: Nous avons procédé à une étude de cohorte rétrospective dans la population des résidences pour aînés certifiées en Ontario, au Canada, entre le 1er mars et le 18 décembre 2020. Notre paramètre principal était toute éclosion de SRAS-CoV-2 (≥ 1 cas confirmé parmi les résidents ou le personnel au moyen d'un test d'amplification des acides nucléiques). Nous avons utilisé la méthode des risques proportionnels avec prédicteurs chronologiques pour modéliser les liens entre les caractéristiques des résidences et des communautés avoisinantes et les éclosions de SRAS-CoV-2. RÉSULTATS: Notre cohorte a inclus l'ensemble des 770 résidences privées pour aînés (RPA) certifiées en Ontario qui hébergeaient 56 491 résidents. On a dénombré 273 (35,5 %) résidences pour aînés qui ont connu 1 éclosion de SRAS-CoV-2 ou plus; 1944 résidents (3,5 %) et 1101 employés (3,0 %) ont contracté l'infection. Ces cas étaient inégalement distribués entre les résidences. En effet, 2487 cas parmi les résidents et le personnel (81,7 %) sont survenus dans 77 résidences (10 %). Le rapport de risque ajusté d'une éclosion de SRAS-CoV-2 dans une résidence a été clairement associé aux établissements qui avaient une grande capacité d'accueil, qui comportaient des unités de soins de longue durée, qui appartenaient à de plus grandes bannières et offraient plusieurs services sur place, qui se trouvaient dans des régions marquées par une hausse de l'incidence régionale de SRAS-CoV-2 et où la concentration ethnique à l'échelle de la communauté était supérieure. INTERPRÉTATION: Certaines caractéristiques facilement identifiables des résidences pour aînés sont associées de manière indépendante aux éclosions de SRAS-CoV-2 et peuvent faciliter l'évaluation des risques et orienter la priorisation de la vaccination.

Écart de mobilité : estimation des seuils de mobilité requis pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada.

CONTEXTE: Les interventions non pharmacologiques demeurent le principal moyen de maîtriser le coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère 2 (SRAS-CoV-2) d'ici à ce que la couverture vaccinale soit suffisante pour donner lieu à une immunité collective. Nous avons utilisé des données de mobilité anonymisées de téléphones intelligents afin de quantifier le niveau de mobilité requis pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 (c.-à-d., seuil de mobilité), et la différence par rapport au niveau de mobilité observé (c.-à-d., écart de mobilité). MÉTHODES: Nous avons procédé à une analyse de séries chronologiques sur l'incidence hebdomadaire du SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada entre le 15 mars 2020 et le 6 mars 2021. Le paramètre mesuré était le taux de croissance hebdomadaire, défini comme le rapport entre les cas d'une semaine donnée et ceux de la semaine précédente. Nous avons mesuré les effets du temps moyen passé hors domicile au cours des 3 semaines précédentes à l'aide d'un modèle de régression log-normal, en tenant compte de la province, de la semaine et de la température moyenne. Nous avons calculé le seuil de mobilité et l'écart de mobilité pour le SRAS-CoV-2. RÉSULTATS: Au cours des 51 semaines de l'étude, en tout, 888 751 personnes ont contracté le SRAS-CoV-2. Chaque augmentation de 10 % de l'écart de mobilité a été associée à une augmentation de 25 % du taux de croissance des cas hebdomadaires de SRAS-CoV-2 (rapport 1,25, intervalle de confiance à 95 % 1,20­1,29). Comparativement à la mobilité prépandémique de référence de 100 %, le seuil de mobilité a été plus élevé au cours de l'été (69 %, écart interquartile [EI] 67 %­70 %), et a chuté à 54 % pendant l'hiver 2021 (EI 52 %­55 %); un écart de mobilité a été observé au Canada entre juillet 2020 et la dernière semaine de décembre 2020. INTERPRÉTATION: La mobilité permet de prédire avec fiabilité et constance la croissance des cas hebdomadaires et il faut maintenir des niveaux faibles de mobilité pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 jusqu'à la fin du printemps 2021. Les données de mobilité anonymisées des téléphones intelligents peuvent servir à guider le relâchement ou le resserrement des mesures de distanciation physique provinciales et régionales.