Validation and demonstration of a new comprehensive model of Alzheimer's disease progression.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD) for individual patients is important for numerous clinical applications. Ideally, prognostic models should provide information about a range of clinical features across the entire disease process. Previously, we published a new comprehensive longitudinal model of AD progression with inputs/outputs covering 11 interconnected clinical measurement domains. METHODS: Here, we (1) validate the model on an independent cohort; and (2) demonstrate the model's utility in clinical applications by projecting changes in 6 of the 11 domains. RESULTS: Survival and prevalence curves for two representative outcomes-mortality and dependency-generated by the model accurately reproduced the observed curves both overall and for patients subdivided according to risk levels using an independent Cox model. DISCUSSION: The new model, validated here, effectively reproduces the observed course of AD from an initial visit assessment, allowing users to project coordinated developments for individual patients of multiple disease features.

Validation of the JEN frailty index in the National Long-Term Care Survey community population: identifying functionally impaired older adults from claims data.

BACKGROUND: Use of a claims-based index to identify persons with physical function impairment and at risk for long-term institutionalization would facilitate population health and comparative effectiveness research. The JEN Frailty Index [JFI] is comprised of diagnosis domains representing impairments and multimorbid clusters with high long-term institutionalization [LTI] risk. We test the index's discrimination of activities-of-daily-living [ADL] dependency and 1-year LTI and mortality in a nationally representative sample of over 12,000 Medicare beneficiaries, and compare long-term community survival stratified by ADL and JFI. METHODS: 2004 U.S. National Long-Term Care Survey data were linked to Medicare, Minimum Data Set, Veterans Health Administration files and vital statistics. ADL dependencies, JFI score, age and sex were measured at baseline survey. ADL and JFI groups were cross-tabulated generating likelihood ratios and classification statistics. Logistic regression compared discrimination (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves), multivariable calibration and accuracy of the JFI and, separately, ADLs, in predicting 1-year outcomes. Hall-Wellner bands facilitated contrasts of JFI- and ADL-stratified 5-year community survival. RESULTS: Likelihood ratios rose evenly across JFI risk categories. Areas under the curves of functional dependency at ≥3 and ≥ 2 for JFI, age and sex models were 0.807 [95% c.i.: 0.795, 0.819] and 0.812 [0.801, 0.822], respectively. The area under the LTI curve for JFI and age (0.781 [0.747, 0.815]) discriminated less well than the ADL-based model (0.829 [0.799, 0.860]). Community survival separated by JFI strata was comparable to ADL strata. CONCLUSIONS: The JEN Frailty Index with demographic covariates is a valid claims-based measure of concurrent activities-of-daily-living impairments and future long-term institutionalization risk in older populations lacking functional information.

stpm: an R package for stochastic process model.

BACKGROUND: The Stochastic Process Model (SPM) represents a general framework for modeling the joint evolution of repeatedly measured variables and time-to-event outcomes observed in longitudinal studies, i.e., SPM relates the stochastic dynamics of variables (e.g., physiological or biological measures) with the probabilities of end points (e.g., death or system failure). SPM is applicable for analyses of longitudinal data in many research areas; however, there are no publicly available software tools that implement this methodology. RESULTS: We developed an R package stpm for the SPM-methodology. The package estimates several versions of SPM currently available in the literature including discrete- and continuous-time multidimensional models and a one-dimensional model with time-dependent parameters. Also, the package provides tools for simulation and projection of individual trajectories and hazard functions. CONCLUSION: In this paper, we present the first software implementation of the SPM-methodology by providing an R package stpm, which was verified through extensive simulation and validation studies. Future work includes further improvements of the model. Clinical and academic researchers will benefit from using the presented model and software. The R package stpm is available as open source software from the following links: https://cran.r-project.org/package=stpm (stable version) or https://github.com/izhbannikov/spm (developer version).

Age, gender, and cancer but not neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases strongly modulate systemic effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 allele on lifespan.

Enduring interest in the Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism is ensured by its evolutionary-driven uniqueness in humans and its prominent role in geriatrics and gerontology. We use large samples of longitudinally followed populations from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) original and offspring cohorts and the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) to investigate gender-specific effects of the ApoE4 allele on human survival in a wide range of ages from midlife to extreme old ages, and the sensitivity of these effects to cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders (ND). The analyses show that women's lifespan is more sensitive to the e4 allele than men's in all these populations. A highly significant adverse effect of the e4 allele is limited to women with moderate lifespan of about 70 to 95 years in two FHS cohorts and the LLFS with relative risk of death RR = 1.48 (p = 3.6 × 10(-6)) in the FHS cohorts. Major human diseases including CVD, ND, and cancer, whose risks can be sensitive to the e4 allele, do not mediate the association of this allele with lifespan in large FHS samples. Non-skin cancer non-additively increases mortality of the FHS women with moderate lifespans increasing the risks of death of the e4 carriers with cancer two-fold compared to the non-e4 carriers, i.e., RR = 2.07 (p = 5.0 × 10(-7)). The results suggest a pivotal role of non-sex-specific cancer as a nonlinear modulator of survival in this sample that increases the risk of death of the ApoE4 carriers by 150% (p = 5.3 × 10(-8)) compared to the non-carriers. This risk explains the 4.2 year shorter life expectancy of the e4 carriers compared to the non-carriers in this sample. The analyses suggest the existence of age- and gender-sensitive systemic mechanisms linking the e4 allele to lifespan which can non-additively interfere with cancer-related mechanisms.

Puzzling role of genetic risk factors in human longevity: "risk alleles" as pro-longevity variants.

Complex diseases are major contributors to human mortality in old age. Paradoxically, many genetic variants that have been associated with increased risks of such diseases are found in genomes of long-lived people, and do not seem to compromise longevity. Here we argue that trade-off-like and conditional effects of genes can play central role in this phenomenon and in determining longevity. Such effects may occur as result of: (i) antagonistic influence of gene on the development of different health disorders; (ii) change in the effect of gene on vulnerability to death with age (especially, from "bad" to "good"); (iii) gene-gene interaction; and (iv) gene-environment interaction, among other factors. A review of current knowledge provides many examples of genetic factors that may increase the risk of one disease but reduce chances of developing another serious health condition, or improve survival from it. Factors that may increase risk of a major disease but attenuate manifestation of physical senescence are also discussed. Overall, available evidence suggests that the influence of a genetic variant on longevity may be negative, neutral or positive, depending on a delicate balance of the detrimental and beneficial effects of such variant on multiple health and aging related traits. This balance may change with age, internal and external environments, and depend on genetic surrounding. We conclude that trade-off-like and conditional genetic effects are very common and may result in situations when a disease "risk allele" can also be a pro-longevity variant, depending on context. We emphasize importance of considering such effects in both aging research and disease prevention.

How the effects of aging and stresses of life are integrated in mortality rates: insights for genetic studies of human health and longevity.

Increasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a major cause of age related health declines then postponing aging could be an efficient strategy for improving the health of the elderly. Implementing this strategy requires a better understanding of genetic and non-genetic connections among aging, health, and longevity. We review progress and problems in research areas whose development may contribute to analyses of such connections. These include genetic studies of human aging and longevity, the heterogeneity of populations with respect to their susceptibility to disease and death, forces that shape age patterns of human mortality, secular trends in mortality decline, and integrative mortality modeling using longitudinal data. The dynamic involvement of genetic factors in (i) morbidity/mortality risks, (ii) responses to stresses of life, (iii) multi-morbidities of many elderly individuals, (iv) trade-offs for diseases, (v) genetic heterogeneity, and (vi) other relevant aging-related health declines, underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to analyze the genetic connections for all of the above aspects of aging-related changes. The dynamic relationships among aging, health, and longevity traits would be better understood if one linked several research fields within one conceptual framework that allowed for efficient analyses of available longitudinal data using the wealth of available knowledge about aging, health, and longevity already accumulated in the research field.

Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related traits in various studies. This suggests that compromised immunity, rather than specific microbes, may play a role in AD by increasing an individual's vulnerability to various infections, which could contribute to neurodegeneration. If true, then vaccines that have heterologous effects on immunity, extending beyond protection against the targeted disease, may hold a potential for AD prevention. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of common adult infections (herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses), and vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risks of AD and other dementias in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia and mycoses, diagnosed between ages 65 and 75, were all associated with significantly increased risk of AD later in life, by 16 %-42 %. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines administered between ages 65-75 were both associated with a significantly lower risk of AD, by 15 %-21 %. These effects became less pronounced when AD was combined with other dementias. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that both the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and the live attenuated zoster vaccine can offer significant protection against AD. It remains to be determined if non-live shingles vaccine has a similar beneficial effect on AD. This study also found significant associations of various infections with the risk of AD, but not with the risks of other dementias. This indicates that vulnerability to infections may play a more significant role in AD than in other types of dementia, which warrants further investigation.

Patterns of Aging Changes in Bodyweight May Predict Alzheimer's Disease.

Relationships between patterns of aging-changes in bodyweight and AD are not fully understood. We compared mean age-trajectories of weight between those who did and did not develop late-onset-AD, and evaluated impact of age at maximum weight (AgeMax), and slope of decline in weight, on AD risk. Women with late-onset-AD had lower weight three or more decades before AD onset, and ∼10 years younger AgeMax, compared to AD-free women. APOE4 carriers had younger AgeMax and steeper slope. Older AgeMax and flatter slope predicted lower AD risk. Premature decline in weight could be a sign of accelerated physical aging contributing to AD.

Methods for joint modelling of longitudinal omics data and time-to-event outcomes: Applications to lysophosphatidylcholines in connection to aging and mortality in the Long Life Family Study.

Studying relationships between longitudinal changes in omics variables and risks of events requires specific methodologies for joint analyses of longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes. We applied two such approaches (joint models [JM], stochastic process models [SPM]) to longitudinal metabolomics data from the Long Life Family Study focusing on understudied associations of longitudinal changes in lysophosphatidylcholines (LPC) with mortality and aging-related outcomes (23 LPC species, 5,790 measurements of each in 4,011 participants, 1,431 of whom died during follow-up). JM analyses found that higher levels of the majority of LPC species were associated with lower mortality risks, with the largest effect size observed for LPC 15:0/0:0 (hazard ratio: 0.715, 95% CI (0.649, 0.788)). SPM applications to LPC 15:0/0:0 revealed how the association found in JM reflects underlying aging-related processes: decline in robustness to deviations from optimal LPC levels, better ability of males' organisms to return to equilibrium LPC levels (which are higher in females), and increasing gaps between the optimum and equilibrium levels leading to increased mortality risks with age. Our results support LPC as a biomarker of aging and related decline in robustness/resilience, and call for further exploration of factors underlying age-dynamics of LPC in relation to mortality and diseases.

Validation of a Multivariate Prediction Model of the Clinical Progression of Alzheimer's Disease in a Community-Dwelling Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The major aims of the three Predictors Studies have been to further our understanding of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression sufficiently to predict the length of time from disease onset to major disease outcomes in individual patients with AD. OBJECTIVES: To validate a longitudinal Grade of Membership (L-GoM) prediction algorithm developed using clinic-based, mainly white patients from the Predictors 2 Study in a statistically representative community-based sample of Hispanic (N = 211) and non-Hispanic (N = 62) older adults (with 60 males and 213 females) from the Predictors 3 Study and extend the algorithm to mild cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: The L-GoM model was applied to data collected at the initial Predictors 3 visit for 150 subjects with AD and 123 with MCI. Participants were followed annually for up to seven years. Observed rates of survival and need for full-time care (FTC) were compared to those predicted by the algorithm. RESULTS: Initial MCI/AD severity in Predictors 3 was substantially higher than among clinic-based AD patients enrolled at the specialized Alzheimer's centers in Predictors 2. The observed survival and need for FTC followed the L-GoM model trajectories in individuals with MCI or AD, except for N = 32 subjects who were initially diagnosed with AD but reverted to a non-AD diagnosis on follow-up. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that the L-GoM model is applicable to community-dwelling, multiethnic older adults with AD. They extend the use of the model to the prediction of outcomes for MCI. They also justify release of our L-GoM calculator at this time.

Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a major role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been linked to Alzheimer's disease (AD) indicating a possibility that the culprit may be compromised immunity rather than particular microbe. If true, then vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity might be protective against AD. METHODS: We estimated associations of common adult infections, including herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses, as well as vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risk of AD in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study. RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia, and mycoses diagnosed between ages 65-75, were all associated with higher risk of AD later in life, by 16%-42%. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines received between ages 65-75 both lowered the risk of AD, by 15%-21%. DISCUSSION: Our results support the idea that the connection between AD and infections involves compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen. We discuss mechanisms by which the declining immune surveillance may promote AD, and the role of biological aging in it. Repurposing of vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity could be a reasonable approach to AD prevention. Pneumococcal and zoster vaccines are promising candidates for such repurposing.

Interactions between genes involved in physiological dysregulation and axon guidance: role in Alzheimer's disease.

Dysregulation of physiological processes may contribute to Alzheimer's disease (AD) development. We previously found that an increase in the level of physiological dysregulation (PD) in the aging body is associated with declining resilience and robustness to major diseases. Also, our genome-wide association study found that genes associated with the age-related increase in PD frequently represented pathways implicated in axon guidance and synaptic function, which in turn were linked to AD and related traits (e.g., amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration) in the literature. Here, we tested the hypothesis that genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function may jointly influence onset of AD. We assessed the impact of interactions between SNPs in such genes on AD onset in the Long Life Family Study and sought to replicate the findings in the Health and Retirement Study. We found significant interactions between SNPs in the UNC5C and CNTN6, and PLXNA4 and EPHB2 genes that influenced AD onset in both datasets. Associations with individual SNPs were not statistically significant. Our findings, thus, support a major role of genetic interactions in the heterogeneity of AD and suggest the joint contribution of genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function (essential for the maintenance of complex neural networks) to AD development.

Exogenous exposures shape genetic predisposition to lipids, Alzheimer's, and coronary heart disease in the MLXIPL gene locus.

Associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the MLXIPL lipid gene with Alzheimer's (AD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) and potentially causal mediation effects of their risk factors, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TG), were examined in two samples of European ancestry from the US (22,712 individuals 587/2,608 AD/CHD cases) and the UK Biobank (UKB) (232,341 individuals; 809/15,269 AD/CHD cases). Our results suggest that these associations can be regulated by several biological mechanisms and shaped by exogenous exposures. Two patterns of associations (represented by rs17145750 and rs6967028) were identified. Minor alleles of rs17145750 and rs6967028 demonstrated primary (secondary) association with high TG (lower HDL-C) and high HDL-C (lower TG) levels, respectively. The primary association explained ~50% of the secondary one suggesting partly independent mechanisms of TG and HDL-C regulation. The magnitude of the association of rs17145750 with HDL-C was significantly higher in the US vs. UKB sample and likely related to differences in exogenous exposures in the two countries. rs17145750 demonstrated a significant detrimental indirect effect through TG on AD risk in the UKB only (ßIE = 0.015, pIE = 1.9 × 10-3), which suggests protective effects of high TG levels against AD, likely shaped by exogenous exposures. Also, rs17145750 demonstrated significant protective indirect effects through TG and HDL-C in the associations with CHD in both samples. In contrast, rs6967028 demonstrated an adverse mediation effect through HDL-C on CHD risk in the US sample only (ßIE = 0.019, pIE = 8.6 × 10-4). This trade-off suggests different roles of triglyceride mediated mechanisms in the pathogenesis of AD and CHD.

APOE ɛ4 allele and TOMM40-APOC1 variants jointly contribute to survival to older ages.

Age-related diseases characteristic of post-reproductive life, aging, and life span are the examples of polygenic non-Mendelian traits with intricate genetic architectures. Polygenicity of these traits implies that multiple variants can impact their risks independently or jointly as combinations of specific variants. Here, we examined chances to live to older ages, 85 years and older, for carriers of compound genotypes comprised of combinations of genotypes of rs429358 (APOE ɛ4 encoding polymorphism), rs2075650 (TOMM40), and rs12721046 (APOC1) polymorphisms using data from four human studies. The choice of these polymorphisms was motivated by our prior results showing that the ɛ4 carriers having minor alleles of the other two polymorphisms were at exceptionally high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD), compared with non-carriers of the minor alleles. Consistent with our prior findings for AD, we show here that the adverse effect of the ɛ4 allele on survival to older ages is significantly higher in carriers of minor alleles of rs2075650 and/or rs12721046 polymorphisms compared with their non-carriers. The exclusion of AD cases made this effect stronger. Our results provide compelling evidence that AD does not mediate the associations of the same compound genotypes with chances to survive until older ages, indicating the existence of genetically heterogeneous mechanisms. The survival chances can be mainly associated with lipid- and immunity-related mechanisms, whereas the AD risk, can be driven by the AD-biomarker-related mechanism, among others. Targeting heterogeneous polygenic profiles of individuals at high risks of complex traits is promising for the translation of genetic discoveries to health care.

Decline in biological resilience as key manifestation of aging: Potential mechanisms and role in health and longevity.

Decline in biological resilience (ability to recover) is a key manifestation of aging that contributes to increase in vulnerability to death with age eventually limiting longevity even in people without major chronic diseases. Understanding the mechanisms of this decline is essential for developing efficient anti-aging and pro-longevity interventions. In this paper we discuss: a) mechanisms of the decline in resilience with age, and aging components that contribute to this decline, including depletion of body reserves, imperfect repair mechanisms, and slowdown of physiological processes and responses with age; b) anti-aging interventions that may improve resilience or attenuate its decline; c) biomarkers of resilience available in human and experimental studies; and d) genetic factors that could influence resilience. There are open questions about optimal anti-aging interventions that would oppose the decline in resilience along with extending longevity limits. However, the area develops quickly, and prospects are exciting.

Composite Measure of Physiological Dysregulation as a Predictor of Mortality: The Long Life Family Study.

Biological aging results in changes in an organism that accumulate over age in a complex fashion across different regulatory systems, and their cumulative effect manifests in increased physiological dysregulation (PD) and declining robustness and resilience that increase risks of health disorders and death. Several composite measures involving multiple biomarkers that capture complex effects of aging have been proposed. We applied one such approach, the Mahalanobis distance (DM), to baseline measurements of various biomarkers (inflammation, hematological, diabetes-associated, lipids, endocrine, renal) in 3,279 participants from the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) with complete biomarker data. We used DM to estimate the level of PD by summarizing information about multiple deviations of biomarkers from specified "norms" in the reference population (here, LLFS participants younger than 60 years at baseline). An increase in DM was associated with significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio per standard deviation of DM: 1.42; 95% confidence interval: [1.3, 1.54]), even after adjustment for a composite measure summarizing 85 health-related deficits (disabilities, diseases, less severe symptoms), age, and other covariates. Such composite measures significantly improved mortality predictions especially in the subsample of participants from families enriched for exceptional longevity (the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves are 0.88 vs. 0.85, in models with and without the composite measures, p = 2.9 × 10-5). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that our conclusions are not sensitive to different aspects of computational procedures. Our findings provide the first evidence of association of PD with mortality and its predictive performance in a unique sample selected for exceptional familial longevity.

Genetics of physiological dysregulation: findings from the long life family study using joint models.

Recently, Mahalanobis distance (DM) was suggested as a statistical measure of physiological dysregulation in aging individuals. We constructed DM variants using sets of biomarkers collected at the two visits of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) and performed joint analyses of longitudinal observations of DM and follow-up mortality in LLFS using joint models. We found that DM is significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.31 [1.16, 1.48] to 2.22 [1.84, 2.67]) after controlling for age and other covariates. GWAS of random intercepts and slopes of DM estimated from joint models found a genome-wide significant SNP (rs12652543, p=7.2×10-9) in the TRIO gene associated with the slope of DM constructed from biomarkers declining in late life. Review of biological effects of genes corresponding to top SNPs from GWAS of DM slopes revealed that these genes are broadly involved in cancer prognosis and axon guidance/synapse function. Although axon growth is mainly observed during early development, the axon guidance genes can function in adults and contribute to maintenance of neural circuits and synaptic plasticity. Our results indicate that decline in axons' ability to maintain complex regulatory networks may potentially play an important role in the increase in physiological dysregulation during aging.

Prevalence, Incidence, and Risk Factors for Overall, Physical, and Cognitive Independence Among Those From Exceptionally Long-Lived Families: The Long Life Family Study.

BACKGROUND: The Long Life Family Study (LLFS) enrolled families exhibiting exceptional longevity. The goal of this article was to determine the prevalence and predictors of remaining independent after 7 years in the oldest generation. METHODS: We examined 7-year change in physical (free of activities of daily living difficulty), cognitive (Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥ 24), and overall independence (physically/cognitively independent) in adults aged 90.3 ± 6.3 from LLFS's oldest generation. Potential predictors (n = 28) of remaining independent included demographics, diseases, biomarkers, anthropometrics, and physical and cognitive performance tasks and were determined using generalized estimating equations (α: p < .05). This was a discovery/exploratory analysis, so no multiple testing correction was employed and the results require independent replication. RESULTS: At baseline (n = 1442), 67.3%, 83.8%, and 79.7% were overall, physically, and cognitively independent, respectively. After 7 years, 66% died, 7.5% were lost to follow-up, and the prevalence of overall independence decreased to 59.1% in survivors (-8.2%, 95% confidence interval: -14.1%, 2.2%). Of those with baseline independence, 156/226 (69.0%) remained independent. Predictors of remaining physically independent included younger age, better Short Physical Performance Battery score and lung function, smaller waist circumference, and lower soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-product levels (p < .05). Predictors of remaining cognitively independent included no cancer history, better Digit Symbol Substitution Test performance, and higher body weight (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of independence decreased by only 8.2% after 7 years, demonstrating the close correspondence between disability and mortality. Further, despite a mean baseline age of 90 years, a large proportion of survivors remained independent, suggesting this exceptional subgroup may harbor protective mechanisms.

Polygenic risk score for disability and insights into disability-related molecular mechanisms.

Late life disability is a highly devastating condition affecting 20% or more of persons aged 65 years and older in the USA; it is an important determinant of acute medical and long-term care costs which represent a growing burden on national economies. Disability is a multifactorial trait that contributes substantially to decline of health/wellbeing. Accordingly, gaining insights into the genetics of disability could help in identifying molecular mechanisms of this devastating condition and age-related processes contributing to a large fraction of specific geriatric conditions, concordantly with geroscience. We performed a genome-wide association study of disability in a sample of 24,068 subjects from five studies with 12,550 disabled individuals. We identified 30 promising disability-associated polymorphisms in 19 loci at p < 10-4; four of them attained suggestive significance, p < 10-5. In contrast, polygenic risk scores aggregating effects of minor alleles of independent SNPs that were adversely or beneficially associated with disability showed highly significant associations in meta-analysis, p = 3.13 × 10-45 and p = 5.60 × 10-23, respectively, and were replicated in each study. The analysis of genetic pathways, related diseases, and biological functions supported the connections of genes for the identified SNPs with disabling and age-related conditions primarily through oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammatory response, and ciliary signaling. We identified musculoskeletal system development, maintenance, and regeneration as important components of gene functions. The beneficial and adverse gene sets may be differently implicated in the development of musculoskeletal-related disability with the beneficial set characterized, e.g., by regulation of chondrocyte proliferation and bone formation, and the adverse set by inflammation and bone loss.

Time Trends in the Prevalence of Neurocognitive Disorders and Cognitive Impairment in the United States: The Effects of Disease Severity and Improved Ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Trends in the prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) based on cognitive assessment instruments are often inconsistent with those of neurocognitive disorders (ND) based on Medicare claims records. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that improved ascertainment and resulting decrease in disease severity at the time of diagnosis are responsible for this phenomenon. METHODS: Using Medicare data linked to the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2012), we performed a joint analysis of trends in CI and ND to test our hypothesis. RESULTS: We identified two major contributors to the divergent directions in CI and ND trends: reductions in disease severity explained more than 60% of the differences between CI and ND prevalence over the study period; the remaining 40% was explained by a decrease in the fraction of undiagnosed individuals. DISCUSSION: Improvements in the diagnoses of ND diseases were a major contributor to reported trends in ND and CI. Recent forecasts of CI and ND trends in the U.S. may be overly pessimistic.