Trends and regional distribution of outpatient claims for asthma, 2009-2016, Germany.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate asthma morbidity in Germany by calculating current prevalence, examining its temporal and spatial trends and estimating the total number of asthmatics in Germany and calculating age-, sex- and residence-specific risk. METHODS: We used claims data reported by physicians during 2009-2016, including outpatient diagnoses of all statutory health insured individuals, comprising 85.3% (70 416 019/82 521 653) of the total population in Germany in 2016. We performed a spatial analysis of asthma prevalence according to administrative district by calculating Global and Local Moran's I. We assessed the risk of asthma by sex, age, type of residence (rural versus urban) and federal state (East versus West) using a multilevel parametric survival regression. FINDINGS: We estimated that 4.7 million individuals were affected by asthma in 2016, including 0.8 million children and 3.9 million adults. We observed a slightly higher prevalence (with an increasing trend) among adults (5.85%; 3 408 622/58 246 299) compared to children (5.13%; 624 899/12 169 720), and calculated an age-standardized prevalence of 5.76% (95% confidence interval, CI: 5.76-5.77). We found evidence of a strong spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I: 0.50, P < 0.0001), and identified local spatial clusters with higher levels of prevalence. Living in the western (versus eastern) federal states and living in densely populated large urban municipalities (versus rural area) were independently associated with an increased risk of asthma, with hazard ratios of 1.33 (95% CI: 1.32-1.34) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.31-1.32), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our insights into the spatial distribution of asthma morbidity may inform public health interventions, including region-specific prevention programmes and control.

Mental and somatic comorbidity of depression: a comprehensive cross-sectional analysis of 202 diagnosis groups using German nationwide ambulatory claims data.

BACKGROUND: Depression is frequently accompanied by other mental disorders and various somatic diseases; however, previous comorbidity studies often relied on self-reported data and have not simultaneously assessed the entire spectrum of mental and somatic diagnoses. The aim is to provide a complete picture of mental and somatic comorbidity of depression in routine outpatient care in a high income country with a relatively well equipped health care system. METHODS: Using ambulatory claims data covering 87% of the German population (age 15+), we designed a cross-sectional study by identifying persons diagnosed with mild, moderate and severe depression in 2017 (N = 6.3 million) and a control group matched 4:1 on sex, 5-year age group and region of residence (N = 25.2 million). Stratified by severity, we calculated the prevalence of 202 diagnosis groups included in the ICD-10 in persons with depression as compared to matched controls using prevalence ratios (PR). RESULTS: Nearly all mental disorders were at least twice as prevalent in persons with depression relative to controls, showing a dose-response relationship with depression severity. Irrespective of severity, the three most prevalent somatic comorbid diagnosis groups were 'other dorsopathies' (M50-M54), 'hypertensive diseases' (I10-I15) and 'metabolic disorders' (E70-E90), exhibiting PRs in moderate depression of 1.56, 1.23 and 1.33, respectively. Strong associations were revealed with diseases of the central nervous system (i.e. multiple sclerosis) and several neurological diseases, among them sleep disorders, migraine and epilepsy, most of them exhibiting at least 2- to 3-fold higher prevalences in depression relative to controls. Utilization of health care was higher among depression cases compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: The present study based on data from nearly the complete adolescent and adult population in Germany comprehensively illustrates the comorbidity status of persons diagnosed with depression as coded in routine health care. Our study should contribute to increasing the awareness of the strong interconnection of depression with all other mental and the vast majority of somatic diseases. Our findings underscore clinical and health-economic relevance and the necessity of systematically addressing the high comorbidity of depression and somatic as well as other mental diseases through prevention, early identification and adequate management of depressive symptoms.

Marked reductions in outpatient antibiotic prescriptions for children and adolescents - a population-based study covering 83% of the paediatric population, Germany, 2010 to 2018.

BackgroundPrescribing of systemic antibiotics in general and of cephalosporins in particular in German paediatric outpatients has previously been reported to be higher than in other European countries.AimOur objective was to assess recent trends in antibiotic prescribing in German children.MethodsThis study was conducted as consecutive annual cross-sectional analyses and included all children aged 0-14 years (n = 9,389,183 in 2018) covered by statutory health insurance in Germany. Annual antibiotic prescription rates from 2010 to 2018 were calculated for the age groups 0-1, 2-5, 6-9 and 10-14 years. Poisson regression was used to estimate trends of prescription rates by age group and antibiotic subgroup.ResultsOverall, the age-standardised antibiotic prescription rate decreased significantly by 43% from 746 prescriptions per 1,000 persons in 2010 to 428 per 1,000 in 2018 (p < 0.001). Reductions were most pronounced in the age groups 0-1 year (-50%) and 2-5 years (-44%). The age group 2-5 years exhibited the highest prescription rate with 683 per 1,000 in 2018 (0-1 year: 320/1,000; 6-9 years: 417/1,000; 10-14 years: 273/1,000). Cephalosporins (second and third generation) accounted for 32% of prescribed antibiotics.ConclusionsMarked reductions in antibiotic prescribing during the last decade indicate a change towards more judicious paediatric prescribing habits. Compared with other European countries, however, prescribing of second- and third-generation cephalosporins remains high in Germany, suggesting frequent first-line use of these substances for common respiratory infections. Considerable regional variations underline the need for regionally targeted interventions.

Separate and combined associations of obesity and metabolic health with coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis.

Aims: The hypothesis of 'metabolically healthy obesity' implies that, in the absence of metabolic dysfunction, individuals with excess adiposity are not at greater cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a large pan-European prospective study. Methods and results: We conducted a case-cohort analysis in the 520 000-person European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study ('EPIC-CVD'). During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we recorded 7637 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases. Using cut-offs recommended by guidelines, we defined obesity and overweight using body mass index (BMI), and metabolic dysfunction ('unhealthy') as ≥ 3 of elevated blood pressure, hypertriglyceridaemia, low HDL-cholesterol, hyperglycaemia, and elevated waist circumference. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) within each country using Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regressions, accounting for age, sex, centre, education, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight people (reference), HRs were 2.15 (95% CI: 1.79; 2.57) for unhealthy normal weight, 2.33 (1.97; 2.76) for unhealthy overweight, and 2.54 (2.21; 2.92) for unhealthy obese people. Compared with the reference group, HRs were 1.26 (1.14; 1.40) and 1.28 (1.03; 1.58) for metabolically healthy overweight and obese people, respectively. These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Irrespective of BMI, metabolically unhealthy individuals had higher CHD risk than their healthy counterparts. Conversely, irrespective of metabolic health, overweight and obese people had higher CHD risk than lean people. These findings challenge the concept of 'metabolically healthy obesity', encouraging population-wide strategies to tackle obesity.

Obesity as risk factor for subtypes of breast cancer: results from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier epidemiological studies indicate that associations between obesity and breast cancer risk may not only depend on menopausal status and use of exogenous hormones, but might also differ by tumor subtype. Here, we evaluated whether obesity is differentially associated with the risk of breast tumor subtypes, as defined by 6 immunohistochemical markers (ER, PR, HER2, Ki67, Bcl-2 and p53, separately and combined), in the prospective EPIC-Germany Study (n = 27,012). METHODS: Formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissues of 657 incident breast cancer cases were used for histopathological analyses. Associations between BMI and breast cancer risk across subtypes were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression models stratified by menopausal status and hormone therapy (HT) use. RESULTS: Among postmenopausal non-users of HT, higher BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of less aggressive, i.e. ER+, PR+, HER2-, Ki67low, Bcl-2+ and p53- tumors (HR per 5 kg/m2: 1.44 [1.10, 1.90], p = 0.009), but not with risk of more aggressive tumor subtypes. Among postmenopausal users of HT, BMI was significantly inversely associated with less aggressive tumors (HR per 5 kg/m2: 0.68 [0.50, 0.94], p = 0.018). Finally, among pre- and perimenopausal women, Cox regression models did not reveal significant linear associations between BMI and risk of any tumor subtype, although analyses by BMI tertiles showed a significantly lower risk of less aggressive tumors for women in the highest tertile (HR: 0.55 [0.33, 0.93]). CONCLUSION: Overall, our results suggest that obesity is related to risk of breast tumors with lower aggressiveness, a finding that requires replication in larger-scale analyses of pooled prospective data.

Body mass index and lung cancer risk: a pooled analysis based on nested case-control studies from four cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been proposed as a potential protective factor against lung cancer. We examined the association between BMI and lung cancer risk in a pooled analysis based on nested case-control studies from four cohort studies. METHODS: A case-control study was nested within four cohorts in USA, Europe, China and Singapore that included 4172 cases and 8471 control subjects. BMI at baseline was calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared (kg/m2), and classified into 4 categories: underweight (BMI < 18.5), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and obese (≥30). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BMI-lung cancer associations were estimated using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Considering all participants, and using normal weight as the reference group, a decreased risk of lung cancer was observed for those who were overweight (OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68-0.86) and obese (OR 0.69, 95% CI: 0.59-0.82). In the stratified analysis by smoking status, the decreased risk for lung cancer was observed among current, former and never smokers (P for interaction 0.002). The adjusted ORs for overweight and obese groups were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68-0.92) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.60-0.93) for current smokers, 0.70 (95% CI: 0.53-0.93) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.37-0.80) for former smokers, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.59-0.99), and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.44-1.14) for never smokers, respectively. While no statistically significant association was observed for underweight subjects who were current smokers (OR 1.24, 95% CI: 0.98-1.58), former smokers (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.12-0.61) and never smokers (OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.5.-1.28). CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide additional evidence that obesity is associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer. Further biological studies are needed to address this association.

Nut intake and 5-year changes in body weight and obesity risk in adults: results from the EPIC-PANACEA study.

PURPOSE: There is inconsistent evidence regarding the relationship between higher intake of nuts, being an energy-dense food, and weight gain. We investigated the relationship between nut intake and changes in weight over 5 years. METHODS: This study includes 373,293 men and women, 25-70 years old, recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 10 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Habitual intake of nuts including peanuts, together defined as nut intake, was estimated from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires. Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported 5 years later. The association between nut intake and body weight change was estimated using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center/country as random effect and nut intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects. The relative risk (RR) of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: On average, study participants gained 2.1 kg (SD 5.0 kg) over 5 years. Compared to non-consumers, subjects in the highest quartile of nut intake had less weight gain over 5 years (-0.07 kg; 95% CI -0.12 to -0.02) (P trend = 0.025) and had 5% lower risk of becoming overweight (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.98) or obese (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90-0.99) (both P trend <0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Higher intake of nuts is associated with reduced weight gain and a lower risk of becoming overweight or obese.

Patterns of the initiation of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in incident rheumatoid arthritis: a German perspective based on nationwide ambulatory drug prescription data.

This study aimed at providing a current and nearly complete picture of the patterns of the initiation of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in patients with newly diagnosed RA. Based on ambulatory drug prescription data and physician billing claims data covering 87% of the German population, we assembled a cohort of incident RA patients aged 15-79 years (n = 54,896) and assessed the prescription frequency of total DMARDs, conventional synthetic (csDMARDs) and biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) within the first year of disease. Using multiple logistic regression, we estimated the chance of early DMARD receipt based on age, sex, serotype and specialty of prescribing physician while controlling for region of residence. In total, 44% of incident RA patients received a DMARD prescription within the first year of disease. In multiple regression, younger patients (< 35 years) had 1.7-fold higher chances of receiving a csDMARD than patients aged ≥ 65 years [odds ratio (OR): 1.65 with 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-1.80] and almost tenfold higher chances to receive a bDMARD [OR (95% CI) 9.5 (8.0-11.3)]. Seropositivity and a visit to a rheumatologist were positively associated with DMARD initiation [OR (95% CI) 2.8 (2.6-2.9) and 5.9 (5.6-6.2) for csDMARDs, respectively]. Based on data covering 87% of the German population, the present study revealed that less than half of incident RA patients receive DMARDs within the first year of disease and that marked differences exist according to age. The study highlights the importance of involving a rheumatologist early in the management of RA.

Effect of Fluid Intake on Hydration Status and Skin Barrier Characteristics in Geriatric Patients: An Explorative Study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Inadequate fluid intake is assumed to be a trigger of water-loss dehydration, which is a major health risk in aged and geriatric populations. Thus, there is a need to search for easy to use diagnostic tests to identify dehydration. Our overall aim was to investigate whether skin barrier parameters could be used for predicting fluid intake and/or hydration status in geriatric patients. METHODS: An explorative observational comparative study was conducted in a geriatric hospital including patients aged 65 years and older. We measured 3-day fluid intake, skin barrier parameters, Overall Dry Skin Score, serum osmolality, cognitive and functional health, and medications. RESULTS: Forty patients were included (mean age 78.45 years and 65% women) with a mean fluid intake of 1,747 mL/day. 20% of the patients were dehydrated and 22.5% had an impending dehydration according to serum osmolality. Multivariate analysis suggested that skin surface pH and epidermal hydration at the face were associated with fluid intake. Serum osmolality was associated with epidermal hydration at the leg and skin surface pH at the face. Fluid intake was not correlated with serum osmolality. Diuretics were associated with high serum osmolality. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the patients were diagnosed as being dehydrated according to osmolality, which is the current reference standard. However, there was no association with fluid intake, questioning the clinical relevance of this measure. Results indicate that single skin barrier parameters are poor markers for fluid intake or osmolality. Epidermal hydration might play a role but most probably in combination with other tests.

Tall height and obesity are associated with an increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer: results from the EPIC cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between body size and prostate cancer risk, and in particular risk by tumour characteristics, is not clear because most studies have not differentiated between high-grade or advanced stage tumours, but rather have assessed risk with a combined category of aggressive disease. We investigated the association of height and adiposity with incidence of and death from prostate cancer in 141,896 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). After an average of 13.9 years of follow-up, there were 7024 incident prostate cancers and 934 prostate cancer deaths. RESULTS: Height was not associated with total prostate cancer risk. Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in the association with height by tumour grade (P heterogeneity = 0.002), with a positive association with risk for high-grade but not low-intermediate-grade disease (HR for high-grade disease tallest versus shortest fifth of height, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.18-2.03). Greater height was also associated with a higher risk for prostate cancer death (HR = 1.43, 1.14-1.80). Body mass index (BMI) was significantly inversely associated with total prostate cancer, but there was evidence of heterogeneity by tumour grade (P heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.89, 0.79-0.99 for low-intermediate grade and HR = 1.32, 1.01-1.72 for high-grade prostate cancer) and stage (P heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.86, 0.75-0.99 for localised stage and HR = 1.11, 0.92-1.33 for advanced stage). BMI was positively associated with prostate cancer death (HR = 1.35, 1.09-1.68). The results for waist circumference were generally similar to those for BMI, but the associations were slightly stronger for high-grade (HR = 1.43, 1.07-1.92) and fatal prostate cancer (HR = 1.55, 1.23-1.96). CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this large prospective study show that men who are taller and who have greater adiposity have an elevated risk of high-grade prostate cancer and prostate cancer death.

Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults-a multi-center cohort approach.

Background: A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. Methods: We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score's discriminatory accuracy. Results: The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67-0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials.

Anthropometry and the Risk of Lung Cancer in EPIC.

The associations of body mass index (BMI) and other anthropometric measurements with lung cancer were examined in 348,108 participants in the European Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) between 1992 and 2010. The study population included 2,400 case patients with incident lung cancer, and the average length of follow-up was 11 years. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models in which we modeled smoking variables with cubic splines. Overall, there was a significant inverse association between BMI (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) and the risk of lung cancer after adjustment for smoking and other confounders (for BMI of 30.0-34.9 versus 18.5-25.0, hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.84). The strength of the association declined with increasing follow-up time. Conversely, after adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio were significantly positively associated with lung cancer risk (for the highest category of waist circumference vs. the lowest, hazard ratio = 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.50). Given the decline of the inverse association between BMI and lung cancer over time, the association is likely at least partly due to weight loss resulting from preclinical lung cancer that was present at baseline. Residual confounding by smoking could also have influenced our findings.

Obesity and Oesophageal Cancer.

A substantial increase in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has been observed in Western countries during the past 30 years, which may be related to the parallel rise of the obesity prevalence. On the other hand, incidence rates of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, the other major histological type of oesophageal cancer, have remained relatively stable. Epidemiological research of the past decades has identified obesity as risk factor for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Studies investigating general obesity as assessed by body mass index (BMI) provide evidence for a strong positive association with oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Studies investigating abdominal obesity in relation to oesophageal adenocarcinoma observed also positive associations, which may be independent of general obesity. Some studies indicate that early life obesity is also associated with higher risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, but it is as to date unclear whether these associations are independent of adult obesity. Part of the positive association between obesity and oesophageal adenocarcinoma may be explained through obesity-related mechanical promotion of gastroesophageal reflux disease, which is one of the main risk factors for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Other lines of evidence point to an independent role of metabolic pathways modulating cell proliferation, apoptosis and cell growth such as pro-inflammatory cytokines, adipokines and insulin resistance, the role of which in oesophageal carcinogenesis is, however, as to date insufficiently understood. Studies investigating obesity in relation to squamous cell carcinoma observed inverse relationships, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

An epidemiological model for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in Europe.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71% for a model based on age alone to 77% (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.

Weight cycling and the risk of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-Germany cohort.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Studies on weight cycling and the risk of type 2 diabetes have revealed inconsistent results, possibly due to differences in the definition of weight fluctuations. Here, we investigated whether weight cycling during adulthood is related to diabetes risk in a large cohort study, using a complementary approach to define patterns of weight development. METHODS: Weight cycling, weight loss and weight gain were defined (1) a priori, using distinct categories, and (2) by functional principal component analysis (FPCA) to capture weight patterns in greater detail. Associations of weight cycling, weight loss and weight gain with the risk of type 2 diabetes were evaluated by Cox regression models. RESULTS: A priori defined weight cycling was associated with increased diabetes risk, compared with stable weight (HR 1.36 [95% CI 1.09, 1.68]). No significant association between FPCA-derived weight cycling and risk of diabetes was observed after adjustment for concurrent weight patterns (HR 1.19 [95% CI 0.89, 1.60]). Subgroup analyses showed that FPCA-derived weight cycling during net weight gain was associated with a higher risk of diabetes (HR 1.68 [95% CI 1.14, 2.48]). A priori defined weight gain (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.60, 2.70]) was more clearly related to the risk of diabetes than FPCA-derived weight gain (HR 1.20 [95% CI 0.95, 1.51]), while no significant associations were observed for weight loss. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Overall, weight cycling may not be an independent risk factor for type 2 diabetes when accounting for concurrent patterns of weight development. However, weight cycling may pose a stronger risk of diabetes than non-cycling during net weight gain.

Body iron status and gastric cancer risk in the EURGAST study.

Although it appears biologically plausible for iron to be associated with gastric carcinogenesis, the evidence is insufficient to lead to any conclusions. To further investigate the relationship between body iron status and gastric cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study in the multicentric European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The study included 456 primary incident gastric adenocarcinoma cases and 900 matched controls that occurred during an average of 11 years of follow-up. We measured prediagnostic serum iron, ferritin, transferrin and C-reactive protein, and further estimated total iron-binding capacity (TIBC) and transferrin saturation (TS). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of gastric cancer by iron metrics were estimated from multivariable conditional logistic regression models. After adjusting for relevant confounders, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between gastric cancer and ferritin and TS indices (ORlog2 = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.72-0.88; OR10%increment = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78-0.97, respectively). These associations appear to be restricted to noncardia gastric cancer (ferritin showed a p for heterogeneity = 0.04 and TS had a p for heterogeneity = 0.02), and no differences were found by histological type. TIBC increased risk of overall gastric cancer (OR50 µg/dl = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.02-1.2) and also with noncardia gastric cancer (p for heterogeneity = 0.04). Additional analysis suggests that time between blood draw and gastric cancer diagnosis could modify these findings. In conclusion, our results showed a decreased risk of gastric cancer related to higher body iron stores as measured by serum iron and ferritin. Further investigation is needed to clarify the role of iron in gastric carcinogenesis.

General and abdominal obesity and risk of esophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

General obesity, as reflected by BMI, is an established risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a suspected risk factor for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCC) and appears unrelated to gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCC). How abdominal obesity, as commonly measured by waist circumference (WC), relates to these cancers remains largely unexplored. Using measured anthropometric data from 391,456 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study and 11 years of follow-up, we comprehensively assessed the association of anthropometric measures with risk of EAC, GCC and GNCC using multivariable proportional hazards regression. One hundred twenty-four incident EAC, 193 GCC and 224 GNCC were accrued. After mutual adjustment, BMI was unrelated to EAC, while WC showed a strong positive association (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.19; 95% CI, 0.63-2.22 and HR = 3.76; 1.72-8.22, respectively). Hip circumference (HC) was inversely related to EAC after controlling for WC, while WC remained positively associated (HR = 0.35; 0.18-0.68, and HR=4.10; 1.94-8.63, respectively). BMI was not associated with GCC or GNCC. WC was related to higher risks of GCC after adjustment for BMI and more strongly after adjustment for HC (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.91; 1.09-3.37, and HR = 2.23; 1.28-3.90, respectively). Our study demonstrates that abdominal, rather than general, obesity is an indisputable risk factor for EAC and also provides evidence for a protective effect of gluteofemoral (subcutaneous) adipose tissue in EAC. Our study further shows that general obesity is not a risk factor for GCC and GNCC, while the role of abdominal obesity in GCC needs further investigation.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of renal cancers in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC).

Epidemiologic studies have reported that moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with the risk of renal cancer. However, there is no information available on the associations in renal cancer subsites. From 1992 through to 2010, 477,325 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort were followed for incident renal cancers (n = 931). Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Information on past alcohol consumption was collected by lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. In multivariate analysis, total alcohol consumption at baseline was inversely associated with renal cancer; the HR and 95% CI for the increasing categories of total alcohol consumption at recruitment versus the light drinkers category were 0.78 (0.62-0.99), 0.82 (0.64-1.04), 0.70 (0.55-0.90), 0.91 (0.63-1.30), respectively, (ptrend = 0.001). A similar relationship was observed for average lifetime alcohol consumption and for all renal cancer subsites combined or for renal parenchyma subsite. The trend was not observed in hypertensive individuals and not significant in smokers. In conclusion, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a decreased risk of renal cancer.

Meat and fish consumption and the risk of renal cell carcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

Renal cell cancer (RCC) incidence varies worldwide with a higher incidence in developed countries and lifestyle is likely to contribute to the development of this disease. We examined whether meat and fish consumption were related to the risk of RCC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 493,179 EPIC participants, recruited between 1992 and 2000. Until December 2008, 691 RCC cases have been identified. Meat and fish consumption was assessed at baseline using country-specific dietary assessment instruments; 24-hour recalls were applied in an 8% subsample for calibration purposes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Women with a high consumption of red meat (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.62; calibrated, per 50 g/day) and processed meat (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.05-3.03; calibrated, per 50 g/day) had a higher risk of RCC, while no association existed in men. For processed meat, the association with RCC incidence was prominent in premenopausal women and was lacking in postmenopausal women (p interaction = 0.02). Neither poultry nor fish consumption were statistically significantly associated with the risk of RCC. The results show a distinct association of red and processed meat consumption with incident RCC in women but not in men. A biological explanation for these findings remains unclear.

Anthropometric measures and bladder cancer risk: a prospective study in the EPIC cohort.

Anthropometric measures have been related to risk of several cancers. For bladder cancer, however, evidence is sparse. Comparability of existing studies is hampered by use of different obesity-measures, inadequate control for smoking, and few female cases. This study examined associations between height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body mass index (BMI), recalled weight at age 20 and bladder cancer, and investigated effect modification by age, tumor aggressiveness and smoking. The study was conducted in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, in 390,878 participants. Associations were calculated using Cox Proportional Hazards Models. During follow-up, 1,391 bladder cancers (1,018 male; 373 female) occurred. Height was unrelated to bladder cancer in both genders. We found a small but significant positive association with weight [1.04 (1.01-1.07) per 5 kilo], BMI [1.05 (1.02-1.08) per 2 units], waist circumference [1.04 (1.01-1.08) per 5 cm], waist-hip ratio (1.07 (1.02-1.13) per 0.05 unit] and waist-height ratio [1.07 (1.01-1.13) per 0.05 unit] in men. Stratification by smoking status confined associations in men to former smokers. In never smokers, we found no significant associations, suggesting residual confounding by smoking. Results did not differ with tumor aggressiveness and age. Residual analyses on BMI/waist circumference showed a significantly higher disease risk with BMI in men (p = 0.01), but no association with waist circumference. In conclusion, in this large study, height was unrelated to bladder cancer, whereas overweight was associated with a slightly higher bladder cancer risk in men. This association may, however, be distorted by residual confounding by smoking.