How to use the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema Core Outcome Set for atopic dermatitis trials: a users' guide.

BACKGROUND: The Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) initiative has agreed upon the Core Outcome Set (COS) for use in atopic dermatitis (AD) clinical trials, but additional guidance is needed to maximize its uptake. OBJECTIVES: To provide answers to some of the commonly asked questions about using the HOME COS; to provide data to help with the interpretation of trial results; and to support sample size calculations for future trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: We provide practical guidance on the use of the HOME COS for investigators planning clinical trials in patients with AD. It answers some of the common questions about using the HOME COS, how to access the outcome measurement instruments, what training/resources are needed to use them appropriately and clarifies when the COS is applicable. We also provide exemplar data to inform sample size calculations for eczema trials and encourage standardized data collection and reporting of the COS. CONCLUSIONS: By encouraging adoption of the COS and facilitating consistent reporting of outcome data, it is hoped that the results of eczema trials will be more comprehensive and readily combined in meta-analyses and that patient care will subsequently be improved.

The experiences of men on active surveillance for prostate cancer and their significant others: A qualitative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer (PCa) is a monitoring pathway for men with low-grade, slow growing PCa and aims to delay or avoid active treatment by treating only in the case of disease progression. Experiences of this pathway vary but living with an untreated cancer can have a negative psychological impact on both the patient and their significant other (SO). Literature suggests partners are the primary source of support for men on AS, and therefore it is important to consider SO experiences alongside those of the patient. To the best of our knowledge this is the first UK-based qualitative review looking specifically at experiences of AS for both men with PCa and their SOs. METHODS: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Cochrane Library were searched for literature reporting qualitative experiences of AS for PCa for either men on AS or SOs (or both). 2769 records were identified and screened, with 28 meeting the eligibility criteria. Qualitative data were synthesised and included men on AS (n = 428), and SOs (n = 51). RESULTS: Experiences of the AS pathway vary but reports of uncertainty and anxiety were present in the accounts of both men on AS and SOs. SOs are intertwined throughout every part of the PCa journey, and couples presented as a unit that were on AS together. Both patients and SOs expressed a need for more support, and highly valued peer support. Despite this finding, men expressed a dislike towards 'support groups'. CONCLUSIONS: Increased recognition in clinical practice of SO involvement in AS is needed. Further research is required to explore the specific types of support that would be most acceptable to this population to address the unmet support needs uncovered in this review.

Correction: Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/39791.].

Prevalence of antibiotic prescribing in COVID-19 patients in China and other low- and middle-income countries during the pandemic (December 2019-March 2021): a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are particularly vulnerable to the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Use of antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients during the pandemic may have contributed to increasing the AMR burden, but systematic evidence is lacking. METHODS: We searched Web of Science, EMBASE, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and VIP databases from 1 December 2019 to 31 March 2021. Interventional and observation studies across all settings that reported antibiotic use in at least 10 COVID-19 patients were included. We restricted publications to English and Chinese languages. Screening and data extraction were undertaken by at least two independent reviewers. Results were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were used to explore heterogeneities. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021288291). RESULTS: We included 284 studies involving 210 611 participants in 19 countries. The antibiotic prescribing rates (APRs) in COVID-19 inpatients were 71.7% (95% CI 66.7%-76.5%) in China and 86.5% (77.1%-93.9%) in other LMICs, respectively. APR was lower in mild/moderate cases in China [66.9% (57.9%-75.4%) compared with 91.8% (71.4%-100%) in other LMICs]. High APRs were found among pregnant women and the elderly in China. Disparities in APRs of other patient groups were identified. In studies reporting bacterial infections, the prevalence was 17.3% (10.0%-25.9%) in China and 24.9% (0.1%-68.8%) in other LMICs. Several antibiotics on the WHO 'Watch' and 'Reserve' lists were prescribed frequently in LMICs. CONCLUSIONS: Inappropriate antibiotic use and high prevalence of antibiotic prescribing were found in COVID-19 inpatients in many LMICs.

Home monitoring of haemoglobin A1c in diabetes: A systematic review and narrative synthesis on accuracy, reliability and patient acceptability.

AIM: In the UK people with diabetes who do not attend annual review appointments often have higher haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ) levels. We aim to determine the acceptability of self-collected posted capillary blood samples, and if they produce accurate and reliable HbA1c results. METHODS: We include adult studies comparing capillary blood to venous blood for measuring HbA1c . We exclude methods not suitable for postage. Electronic databases of MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Google Scholar and OpenGrey were searched from inception to September 2021, as well as relevant conference abstracts. Two reviewers performed study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment independently. Narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Our search retrieved 3747 records. Following de-duplication and screening 30 articles were included. The mean difference (MD) and limits of agreement (LoA) between capillary and venous HbA1c were smaller and narrower respectively when micro/capillary tubes (micro/cap) were used for capillary blood storage compared to dried blood spots (capDBS) (micro/cap MD range -0.4 to 1.4 mmol/mol vs. capDBS MD range -4.3 to 7.2 mmol/mol, micro/cap LoA width 2.4 to 6 mmol/mol vs. capDBS LoA width 11.7 to 16.8 mmol/mol). After using self-collection kits, 83%-96% of participants reported satisfaction, 87%-99% found it easy and 69%-94% reported they would use it again. CONCLUSION: Microtubes/capillary tubes look promising as a method of self-collecting and posting capillary blood samples for the measurement of HbA1c based on the accuracy and reliability findings presented. DBS samples demonstrated comparatively poorer accuracy. Data on acceptability were limited and further research is needed.

Mortality from angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers in people infected with COVID-19: a cohort study of 3.7 million people.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised that angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitors (ACE-I) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) might facilitate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 leading to more severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disease and an increased risk of mortality. We aimed to investigate the association between ACE-I/ARB treatment and risk of death amongst people with COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic. METHODS: We identified a cohort of adults diagnosed with either confirmed or probable COVID-19 (from 1 January to 21 June 2020) using computerized medical records from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care database. This comprised 465 general practices in England, United Kingdom with a nationally representative population of 3.7 million people. We constructed mixed-effects logistic regression models to quantify the association between ACE-I/ARBs and all-cause mortality among people with COVID-19, adjusted for sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, concurrent medication, smoking status, practice clustering, and household number. RESULTS: There were 9,586 COVID-19 cases in the sample and 1,463 (15.3%) died during the study period between 1 January 2020 and 21 June 2020. In adjusted analysis ACE-I and ARBs were not associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-1.21 and OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.07, respectively). CONCLUSION: Use of ACE-I/ARB, which are commonly used drugs, did not alter the odds of all-cause mortality amongst people diagnosed with COVID-19. Our findings should inform patient and prescriber decisions concerning continued use of these medications during the pandemic.

Do temperature changes cause eczema flares? An English cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if ambient temperature changes affect eczema. It is also unclear if people with worse disease are more susceptible to weather-related flares, or specific types of emollient offer protection. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of short-term temperature variations on eczema symptoms in children. METHODS: Data from a UK cohort of 519 children with eczema were combined with data from the Hadley Centre's Integrated Surface Database. Hot and cold weeks were defined by average regional temperature > 75th or < 25th percentile, January 2018 to February 2020. Eczema flares were defined as ≥ 3-point change in Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM). Random-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios of flares in hot and cold weeks (reference group: temperate weeks). RESULTS: The baseline mean age was 4.9 years (SD 3.2) and the POEM score was 9.2 (SD 5.5). From the 519 participants, there were 6796 consecutively paired POEMs and 1082 flares. Seasonal variation in POEM scores was observed, suggesting symptoms worsening in winter and improving in summer. Odds ratios of flares were: 1.15 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-1.39, P = 0.14] in cold weeks and 0.85 (95% CI 0.72-1.00, P = 0.05) in hot weeks. The likelihood ratio test showed no evidence of this differing by disease severity (P = 0.53) or emollient type used (P = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with previous studies demonstrating either improvements in eczema symptoms or reduced flares in hot weather. Worse disease and different emollient types did not increase susceptibility or provide protection against temperature changes. Further work should investigate the role of sunlight, humidity, pollution and other environmental factors.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and risk of COVID-19 infection: survey of U.K. public from November 2020 - May 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as handwashing, social distancing and face mask wearing, have been widely promoted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This study aimed to explore the relationship between self-reported use of NPIs and COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We conducted an online questionnaire study recruiting members of the UK public from November 2020 to May 2021. The association between self-reported COVID-19 illness and reported use of NPIs was explored using logistic regression and controlling for participant characteristics, month of questionnaire completion, and vaccine status. Participants who had been exposed to COVID-19 in their household in the previous 2 weeks were excluded. RESULTS: Twenty-seven thousand seven hundred fifty-eight participants were included and 2,814 (10.1%) reported having a COVID-19 infection. The odds of COVID-19 infection were reduced with use of a face covering in unadjusted (OR 0.17 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.20) and adjusted (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.23) analyses. Social distancing (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31; aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43) and handwashing when arriving home (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.73; aOR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.83) also reduced the odds of COVID-19. Being in crowded places of 10-100 people (OR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.70 to 2.11; aOR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.85) and > 100 people (OR 2.33, 95% CI: 2.11 to 2.58; aOR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53 to 1.97) were both associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection. Handwashing before eating, avoiding touching the face, and cleaning things with virus on were all associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infections. CONCLUSIONS: This large observational study found evidence for strong protective effects for individuals from use of face coverings, social distancing (including avoiding crowded places) and handwashing on arriving home on developing COVID-19 infection. We also found evidence for an increased risk associated with other behaviours, possibly from recall bias.

Internet Tool to Support Self-Assessment and Self-Swabbing of Sore Throat: Development and Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common problem and a common reason for the overuse of antibiotics. A web-based tool that helps people assess their sore throat, through the use of clinical prediction rules, taking throat swabs or saliva samples, and taking throat photographs, has the potential to improve self-management and help identify those who are the most and least likely to benefit from antibiotics. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a web-based tool to help patients and parents or carers self-assess sore throat symptoms and take throat photographs, swabs, and saliva samples for diagnostic testing. We then explored the acceptability and feasibility of using the tool in adults and children with sore throats. METHODS: We used the Person-Based Approach to develop a web-based tool and then recruited adults and children with sore throats who participated in this study by attending general practices or through social media advertising. Participants self-assessed the presence of FeverPAIN and Centor score criteria and attempted to photograph their throat and take throat swabs and saliva tests. Study processes were observed via video call, and participants were interviewed about their views on using the web-based tool. Self-assessed throat inflammation and pus were compared to clinician evaluation of patients' throat photographs. RESULTS: A total of 45 participants (33 adults and 12 children) were recruited. Of these, 35 (78%) and 32 (71%) participants completed all scoring elements for FeverPAIN and Centor scores, respectively, and most (30/45, 67%) of them reported finding self-assessment relatively easy. No valid response was provided for swollen lymph nodes, throat inflammation, and pus on the throat by 11 (24%), 9 (20%), and 13 (29%) participants respectively. A total of 18 (40%) participants provided a throat photograph of adequate quality for clinical assessment. Patient assessment of inflammation had a sensitivity of 100% (3/3) and specificity of 47% (7/15) compared with the clinician-assessed photographs. For pus on the throat, the sensitivity was 100% (3/3) and the specificity was 71% (10/14). A total of 89% (40/45), 93% (42/45), 89% (40/45), and 80% (30/45) of participants provided analyzable bacterial swabs, viral swabs, saliva sponges, and saliva drool samples, respectively. Participants were generally happy and confident in providing samples, with saliva samples rated as slightly more acceptable than swab samples. CONCLUSIONS: Most adult and parent participants were able to use a web-based intervention to assess the clinical features of throat infections and generate scores using clinical prediction rules. However, some had difficulties assessing clinical signs, such as lymph nodes, throat pus, and inflammation, and scores were assessed as sensitive but not specific. Many participants had problems taking photographs of adequate quality, but most were able to take throat swabs and saliva samples.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care in England (ARTIC PC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Antibiotics are very commonly prescribed for children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), but there is little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of antibiotics, both overall or among key clinical subgroups. In ARTIC PC, we assessed whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) LRTI in primary care, overall and in key clinical subgroups. METHODS: ARTIC PC was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 56 general practices in England. Eligible children were those aged 6 months to 12 years presenting in primary care with acute uncomplicated LRTI judged to be infective in origin, where pneumonia was not suspected clinically, with symptoms for less than 21 days. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day or placebo oral suspension, in three divided doses orally for 7 days. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary) for up to 28 days or until symptoms resolved. The primary outcome and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN79914298). FINDINGS: Between Nov 9, 2016, and March 17, 2020, 432 children (not including six who withdrew permission for use of their data after randomisation) were randomly assigned to the antibiotics group (n=221) or the placebo group (n=211). Complete data for symptom duration were available for 317 (73%) patients; missing data were imputed for the primary analysis. Median durations of moderately bad or worse symptoms were similar between the groups (5 days [IQR 4-11] in the antibiotics group vs 6 days [4-15] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 0·90-1·42]). No differences were seen for the primary outcome between the treatment groups in the five prespecified clinical subgroups (patients with chest signs, fever, physician rating of unwell, sputum or chest rattle, and short of breath). Estimates from complete-case analysis and a per-protocol analysis were similar to the imputed data analysis. INTERPRETATION: Amoxicillin for uncomplicated chest infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective either overall or for key subgroups in whom antibiotics are commonly prescribed. Unless pneumonia is suspected, clinicians should provide safety-netting advice but not prescribe antibiotics for most children presenting with chest infections. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cohort study including 70,000 people in South West England.

BACKGROUND: Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms including identifying and managing COVID-19 during the pandemic have not been characterized. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis using routinely collected records from 70,431 adults aged 18+ in South England within the Electronic Care and Health Information Analytics (CHIA) database. Total volume and type of consultations (face-to-face, home visits, telephone, email/video, or out of hours) for respiratory tract symptoms between 1 January and 31 July 2020 (during the first wave of the pandemic) were compared with the equivalent period in 2019 for the same cohort. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize consultations by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and by COVID-19 diagnosis and outcomes (death, hospitalization, and pneumonia). RESULTS: Overall consultations for respiratory tract symptoms increased by 229% during the pandemic compared with the preceding year. This included significant increases in telephone consultations by 250%, a 1,574% increase in video/email consultations, 105% increase in home visits, and 92% increase in face-to-face consultations. Nearly 60% of people who presented with respiratory symptoms were tested for COVID-19 and 16% confirmed or clinically suspected to have the virus. Those with complications including pneumonia, requiring hospitalization, and who died were more likely to be seen in-person. CONCLUSION: During the pandemic, primary care substantially increased consultations for respiratory tract symptoms to identify and manage people with COVID-19. These findings should be balanced against national reports of reduced GP workload for non-COVID care.

A feasibility trial of a digital mindfulness-based intervention to improve asthma-related quality of life for primary care patients with asthma.

Asthma outcomes remain suboptimal, despite effective pharmacotherapy. Psychological dysfunction (such as anxiety) is common, and associated with poorer outcomes. We evaluated a digital mindfulness programme as an intervention to improve asthma-related quality of life for primary care patients, in a prospectively registered randomized-controlled feasibility study. We offered 'Headspace', a widely-used digital mindfulness intervention, to adults with asthma through 16 UK GP practices. Participants were randomized on a 2:1 basis to the mindfulness intervention, or waitlist control. Participants completed questionnaires (including asthma symptom control, asthma-related quality of life, anxiety, depression) at baseline, 6-week and 3-month follow-up. 116 participants completed primary outcomes at 3-month follow-up: intervention 73 (79%), control 43 (84%). Compared to baseline, the intervention group but not the control group reported significantly improved asthma-related quality of life, with a between-group difference favoring the intervention group that was not significant (Mean difference = 0.15, 95%CI - 0.13 to 0.42). Intervention use varied (ranging from 0 to 192 times) but was generally high. Digital mindfulness interventions are feasible and acceptable adjunct treatments for mild and moderate asthma to target quality of life. Further research should adapt 'generic' mindfulness-based stress-reduction to maximize effectiveness for asthma, and validate our findings in a fully-powered randomized controlled trial.Trial registration Prospectively registered: ISRCTN52212323.

Fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography coronary angiography in the assessment and management of stable chest pain: the FORECAST randomized trial.

AIMS: Fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) using computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) determines both the presence of coronary artery disease and vessel-specific ischaemia. We tested whether an evaluation strategy based on FFRCT would improve economic and clinical outcomes compared with standard care. METHODS AND RESULTS: Overall, 1400 patients with stable chest pain in 11 centres were randomized to initial testing with CTCA with selective FFRCT (experimental group) or standard clinical care pathways (standard group). The primary endpoint was total cardiac costs at 9 months. Secondary endpoints were angina status, quality of life, major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, and use of invasive coronary angiography. Randomized groups were similar at baseline. Most patients had an initial CTCA: 439 (63%) in the standard group vs. 674 (96%) in the experimental group, 254 of whom (38%) underwent FFRCT. Mean total cardiac costs were higher by £114 (+8%) in the experimental group, with a 95% confidence interval from -£112 (-8%) to +£337 (+23%), though the difference was not significant (P = 0.10). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events did not differ significantly (10.2% in the experimental group vs. 10.6% in the standard group) and angina and quality of life improved to a similar degree over follow-up in both randomized groups. Invasive angiography was reduced significantly in the experimental group (19% vs. 25%, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: A strategy of CTCA with selective FFRCT in patients with stable angina did not differ significantly from standard clinical care pathways in cost or clinical outcomes, but did reduce the use of invasive coronary angiography.

Infection Control Behavior at Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Observational Study of a Web-Based Behavioral Intervention (Germ Defence).

BACKGROUND: To control the COVID-19 pandemic, people should adopt protective behaviors at home (self-isolation, social distancing, putting shopping and packages aside, wearing face coverings, cleaning and disinfecting, and handwashing). There is currently limited support to help individuals conduct these behaviors. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to report current household infection control behaviors in the United Kingdom and examine how they might be improved. METHODS: This was a pragmatic cross-sectional observational study of anonymous participant data from Germ Defence between May 6-24, 2020. Germ Defence is an open-access fully automated website providing behavioral advice for infection control within households. A total of 28,285 users sought advice from four website pathways based on household status (advice to protect themselves generally, to protect others if the user was showing symptoms, to protect themselves if household members were showing symptoms, and to protect a household member who is at high risk). Users reported current infection control behaviors within the home and intentions to change these behaviors. RESULTS: Current behaviors varied across all infection control measures but were between sometimes (face covering: mean 1.61, SD 1.19; social distancing: mean 2.40, SD 1.22; isolating: mean 2.78, SD 1.29; putting packages and shopping aside: mean 2.75, SD 1.55) and quite often (cleaning and disinfecting: mean 3.17, SD 1.18), except for handwashing (very often: mean 4.00, SD 1.03). Behaviors were similar regardless of the website pathway used. After using Germ Defence, users recorded intentions to improve infection control behavior across all website pathways and for all behaviors (overall average infection control score mean difference 0.30, 95% CI 0.29-0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported infection control behaviors other than handwashing are lower than is optimal for infection prevention, although handwashing is much higher. Advice using behavior change techniques in Germ Defence led to intentions to improve these behaviors. Promoting Germ Defence within national and local public health and primary care guidance could reduce COVID-19 transmission.

Exploring the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing for common respiratory tract infections in UK primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To use illness severity scores to evaluate the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in UK general practice. METHODS: We describe variations in practice prescribing rates, taking account of illness severity. We used three scores in three studies to measure severity: 'FeverPAIN' in an adult acute sore throat cohort (n=12 829), the '3C score' in an adult acute lower respiratory tract infection cohort (n=28 883) and the STARWAVe score in an acute cough and respiratory infection children's cohort (n=8394). We calculated median ORs to quantify practice-level variation in prescribing rates, adjusted for illness severity. RESULTS: There was substantial variability in practice prescribing rates (ranges of 0%-97%, 7%-100% and 0%-75% in the three cohorts, respectively). There was evidence that higher prescribing practices saw a higher proportion of unwell patients. At the individual level, patients who were more unwell were more likely to receive a prescription, but prescribing levels for those with low scores were still high. The median OR was 2.5 (95% credible interval=2.2-2.9) in the sore throat data set, 2.9 (95% credible interval=2.6-3.2) in the adult cough data set and 2.1 (95% credible interval=1.8-2.4) in the children's cough data set. CONCLUSIONS: Higher prescribing practices may see more unwell patients with high illness severity scores, but the differences in scores account for a minority of between-practice prescribing variation. There is likely to be scope for further reductions in antibiotic prescribing among patients with low illness severity scores. Further research is needed to explore the additional factors that account for variation in prescribing levels.

A non-linear optimisation method to extract summary statistics from Kaplan-Meier survival plots using the published P value.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses of studies evaluating survival (time-to-event) outcomes are a powerful technique to assess the strength of evidence for a given disease or treatment. However, these studies rely on the adequate reporting of summary statistics in the source articles to facilitate further analysis. Unfortunately, many studies, especially within the field of prognostic research do not report such statistics, making secondary analyses challenging. Consequently, methods have been developed to infer missing statistics from the commonly published Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots but are liable to error especially when the published number at risk is not included. METHODS: We therefore developed a method using non-linear optimisation (nlopt) that only requires the KM plot and the commonly published P value to better estimate the underlying censoring pattern. We use this information to then calculate the natural logarithm of the hazard ratio (ln (HR)) and its variance (var) ln (HR), statistics important for meta-analyses. RESULTS: We compared this method to the Parmar method which also does not require the number at risk to be published. In a validation set consisting of 13 KM studies, a statistically significant improvement in calculating ln (HR) when using an exact P value was obtained (mean absolute error 0.014 vs 0.077, P = 0.003). Thus, when the true HR has a value of 1.5, inference of the HR using the proposed method would set limits between 1.49/1.52, an improvement of the 1.39/1.62 limits obtained using the Parmar method. We also used Monte Carlo simulations to establish recommendations for the number and positioning of points required for the method. CONCLUSION: The proposed non-linear optimisation method is an improvement on the existing method when only a KM plot and P value are included and as such will enhance the accuracy of meta-analyses performed for studies analysing time-to-event outcomes. The nlopt source code is available, as is a simple-to-use web implementation of the method.

Clustering of continuous and binary outcomes at the general practice level in individually randomised studies in primary care - a review of 10 years of primary care trials.

BACKGROUND: In randomised controlled trials, the assumption of independence of individual observations is fundamental to the design, analysis and interpretation of studies. However, in individually randomised trials in primary care, this assumption may be violated because patients are naturally clustered within primary care practices. Ignoring clustering may lead to a loss of power or, in some cases, type I error. METHODS: Clustering can be quantified by intra-cluster correlation (ICC), a measure of the similarity between individuals within a cluster with respect to a particular outcome. We reviewed 17 trials undertaken by the Department of Primary Care at the University of Southampton over the last ten years. We calculated the ICC for the primary and secondary outcomes in each trial at the practice level and determined whether ignoring practice-level clustering still gave valid inferences. Where multiple studies collected the same outcome measure, the median ICC was calculated for that outcome. RESULTS: The median intra-cluster correlation (ICC) for all outcomes was 0.016, with interquartile range 0.00-0.03. The median ICC for symptom severity was 0.02 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.01 to 0.07) and for reconsultation with new or worsening symptoms was 0.01 (IQR 0.00, 0.07). For HADS anxiety the ICC was 0.04 (IQR 0.02, 0.05) and for HADS depression was 0.02 (IQR 0.00, 0.05). The median ICC for EQ. 5D-3 L was 0.01 (IQR 0.01, 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of clustering in individually randomised trials primary care. The non-zero ICC suggests that, depending on study design, clustering may not be ignorable. It is important that this is fully considered at the study design phase.

Death audits and reviews for reducing maternal, perinatal and child mortality.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include reducing the global maternal mortality rate to less than 70 per 100,000 live births and ending preventable deaths of newborns and children under five years of age, in every country, by 2030. Maternal and perinatal death audit and review is widely recommended as an intervention to reduce maternal and perinatal mortality, and to improve quality of care, and could be key to attaining the SDGs. However, there is uncertainty over the most cost-effective way of auditing and reviewing deaths: community-based audit (verbal and social autopsy), facility-based audits (significant event analysis (SEA)) or a combination of both (confidential enquiry). OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of different types of death audits and reviews in reducing maternal, perinatal and child mortality. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following from inception to 16 January 2019: CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase OvidSP, and five other databases. We identified ongoing studies using ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and searched reference lists of included articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Cluster-randomised trials, cluster non-randomised trials, controlled before-and-after studies and interrupted time series studies of any form of death audit or review that involved reviewing individual cases of maternal, perinatal or child deaths, identifying avoidable factors, and making recommendations. To be included in the review, a study needed to report at least one of the following outcomes: perinatal mortality rate; stillbirth rate; neonatal mortality rate; mortality rate in children under five years of age or maternal mortality rate. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) group methodological procedures. Two review authors independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias and assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. We planned to perform a meta-analysis using a random-effects model but included studies were not homogeneous enough to make pooling their results meaningful. MAIN RESULTS: We included two cluster-randomised trials. Both introduced death review and audit as part of a multicomponent intervention, and compared this to current care. The QUARITE study (QUAlity of care, RIsk management, and TEchnology) concerned maternal death reviews in hospitals in West Africa, which had very high maternal and perinatal mortality rates. In contrast, the OPERA trial studied perinatal morbidity/mortality conferences (MMCs) in maternity units in France, which already had very low perinatal mortality rates at baseline. The OPERA intervention in France started with an outreach visit to brief obstetricians, midwives and anaesthetists on the national guidelines on morbidity/mortality case management, and was followed by a series of perinatal MMCs. Half of the intervention units were randomised to receive additional support from a clinical psychologist during these meetings. The OPERA intervention may make little or no difference to overall perinatal mortality (low certainty evidence), however we are uncertain about the effect of the intervention on perinatal mortality related to suboptimal care (very low certainty evidence).The intervention probably reduces perinatal morbidity related to suboptimal care (unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.95; 165,353 births; moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of the intervention on stillbirth rate, neonatal mortality, mortality rate in children under five years of age, maternal mortality or adverse effects was not reported. The QUARITE intervention in West Africa focused on training leaders of hospital obstetric teams using the ALARM (Advances in Labour And Risk Management) course, which included one day of training about conducting maternal death reviews. The leaders returned to their hospitals, established a multidisciplinary committee and started auditing maternal deaths, with the support of external facilitators. The intervention probably reduces inpatient maternal deaths (adjusted OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.98; 191,167 deliveries; moderate certainty evidence) and probably also reduces inpatient neonatal mortality within 24 hours following birth (adjusted OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.90; moderate certainty evidence). However, QUARITE probably makes little or no difference to the inpatient stillbirth rate (moderate certainty evidence) and may make little or no difference to the inpatient neonatal mortality rate after 24 hours, although the 95% confidence interval includes both benefit and harm (low certainty evidence). The QUARITE intervention probably increases the percent of women receiving high quality of care (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.35 - 2.57, moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of the intervention on perinatal mortality, mortality rate in children under five years of age, or adverse effects was not reported. We did not find any studies that evaluated child death audit and review or community-based death reviews or costs. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: A complex intervention including maternal death audit and review, as well as development of local leadership and training, probably reduces inpatient maternal mortality in low-income country district hospitals, and probably slightly improves quality of care. Perinatal death audit and review, as part of a complex intervention with training, probably improves quality of care, as measured by perinatal morbidity related to suboptimal care, in a high-income setting where mortality was already very low. The WHO recommends that maternal and perinatal death reviews should be conducted in all hospitals globally. However, conducting death reviews in isolation may not be sufficient to achieve the reductions in mortality observed in the QUARITE trial. This review suggests that maternal death audit and review may need to be implemented as part of an intervention package which also includes elements such as training of a leading doctor and midwife in each hospital, annual recertification, and quarterly outreach visits by external facilitators to provide supervision and mentorship. The same may also apply to perinatal and child death reviews. More operational research is needed on the most cost-effective ways of implementing maternal, perinatal and paediatric death reviews in low- and middle-income countries.

Relationship between microbiology of throat swab and clinical course among primary care patients with acute cough: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) account for most antibiotics prescribed in primary care despite lack of efficacy, partly due to clinician uncertainty about aetiology and patient concerns about illness course. Nucleic acid amplification tests could assist antibiotic targeting. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 645 patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and suspected ALRTI, provided throat swabs at baseline. These were tested for respiratory pathogens by real-time polymerase chain reaction and classified as having a respiratory virus, bacteria, both or neither. Three hundred fifty-four participants scored the symptoms severity daily for 1 week in a diary (0 = absent to 4 = severe problem). RESULTS: Organisms were identified in 346/645 (53.6%) participants. There were differences in the prevalence of seven symptoms between the organism groups at baseline. Those with a virus alone, and those with both virus and bacteria, had higher average severity scores of all symptoms combined during the week of follow-up than those in whom no organisms were detected [adjusted mean differences 0.204 (95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.398) and 0.348 (0.098 to 0.598), respectively]. There were no differences in the duration of symptoms rated as moderate or severe between organism groups. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in presenting symptoms and symptoms severity can be identified between patients with viruses and bacteria identified on throat swabs. The magnitude of these differences is unlikely to influence management. Most patients had mild symptoms at 7 days regardless of aetiology, which could inform patients about likely symptom duration.