Deep learning and digital pathology powers prediction of HCC development in steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Identifying patients with steatotic liver disease who are at a high risk of developing HCC remains challenging. We present a deep learning (DL) model to predict HCC development using hematoxylin and eosin-stained whole-slide images of biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included 639 patients who did not develop HCC for ≥7 years after biopsy (non-HCC class) and 46 patients who developed HCC <7 years after biopsy (HCC class). Paired cases of the HCC and non-HCC classes matched by biopsy date and institution were used for training, and the remaining nonpaired cases were used for validation. The DL model was trained using deep convolutional neural networks with 28,000 image tiles cropped from whole-slide images of the paired cases, with an accuracy of 81.0% and an AUC of 0.80 for predicting HCC development. Validation using the nonpaired cases also demonstrated a good accuracy of 82.3% and an AUC of 0.84. These results were comparable to the predictive ability of logistic regression model using fibrosis stage. Notably, the DL model also detected the cases of HCC development in patients with mild fibrosis. The saliency maps generated by the DL model highlighted various pathological features associated with HCC development, including nuclear atypia, hepatocytes with a high nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio, immune cell infiltration, fibrosis, and a lack of large fat droplets. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of the DL model to capture subtle pathological features beyond fibrosis suggests its potential for identifying early signs of hepatocarcinogenesis in patients with steatotic liver disease.

Accuracy of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Test in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Its Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The diagnostic performance of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) is poor in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We determined the usefulness of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test in patients with T2DM. METHODS: A total of 1228 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were enrolled. The diagnostic performance of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis in participants with or without T2DM was evaluated in comparison with the FIB-4 index and NFS. RESULTS: Overall, the area under the curve of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis was greater (0.828) than that of the FIB-4 index (0.727) and NFS (0.733). The diagnostic performance of the ELF test (area under the curve, 0.820) was also superior to that of the FIB-4 index (0.698) and NFS (0.700) in patients with T2DM. With the low cutoff values for each noninvasive test, the ELF test provided an acceptable false negative rate (cutoff value 9.8, 6.7%) in this population, unlike the FIB-4 index (1.30, 14.5%) and NFS (-1.455, 12.4%). After propensity score matching to avoid selection bias including age, sex, body mass index, and the prevalence of advanced fibrosis, the ELF test with a low cutoff value showed a high sensitivity (≥91.4%) and a high negative predictive value (≥96.8%), irrespective of the presence or absence of T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The high diagnostic performance of the ELF test for predicting advanced fibrosis in individuals with or without T2DM could address an unmet medical need for accurate assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with diabetes and NAFLD.

Severe hepatic steatosis promotes increased liver stiffness in the early stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predictors of progression from steatosis to more advanced stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) remain unclear. We evaluated the association between the quantity of hepatic steatosis and longitudinal changes in liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) using magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in patients with MASLD. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with MASLD who underwent at least two serial MRE and magnetic resonance imaging-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) examinations at least 1 year apart. Fine-Gray competitive proportional hazard regression was used to identify LSM progression and regression factors. RESULTS: A total of 471 patients were enrolled. Factors linked to LSM progression were steatosis grade 3 (MRI-PDFF ≥17.1%, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.597; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.483-4.547) and albumin-bilirubin grade 2 or 3 (aHR 2.790; 95% CI 1.284-6.091), while the only factor linked to LSM regression was % decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% (aHR 2.781; 95% CI 1.584-4.883). Steatosis grade 3 correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM progression than steatosis grade 1 (MRI-PDFF <11.3%) in patients with LSM stage 0 (<2.5 kilopascal [kPa]), and a % annual decrease rate of MRI-PDFF ≥5% correlated with a higher incidence rate of LSM regression than that of MRI-PDFF >-5% and <5% in patients with LSM stage 1 or 2-4 (≥2.5 kPa). CONCLUSIONS: Severe hepatic steatosis was linked to significant LSM progression in patients with MASLD and low LSM (<2.5 kPa).

Diagnostic performance of shear wave measurement in the detection of hepatic fibrosis: A multicenter prospective study.

AIM: This study aimed to establish the shear wave measurement (SWM) cut-off value for each fibrosis stage using magnetic resonance (MR) elastography values as a reference standard. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed 594 patients with chronic liver disease who underwent SWM and MR elastography. Correlation coefficients (were analyzed, and the diagnostic value was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Liver stiffness was categorized by MR elastography as F0 (<2.61 kPa), F1 (≥2.61 kPa, <2.97 kPa, any fibrosis), F2 (≥2.97 kPa, <3.62 kPa, significant fibrosis), F3 (≥3.62 kPa, <4.62 kPa, advanced fibrosis), or F4 (≥4.62 kPa, cirrhosis). RESULTS: The median SWM values increased significantly with increasing fibrosis stage (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient between SWM and MR elastography values was 0.793 (95% confidence interval 0.761-0.821). The correlation coefficients between SWM and MR elastography values significantly decreased with increasing body mass index and skin-capsular distance; skin-capsular distance values were associated with significant differences in sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, or positive predictive value, whereas body mass index values were not. The best cut-off values for any fibrosis, significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 6.18, 7.09, 8.05, and 10.89 kPa, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study in a large number of patients established SWM cut-off values for different degrees of fibrosis in chronic liver diseases using MR elastography as a reference standard. It is expected that these cut-off values will be applied to liver diseases in the future.

Validation study of age-independent fibrosis score (Fibrosis-3 index) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Because the accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index for predicting liver fibrosis changes with age, the need for different cut-offs in various age groups has frequently been discussed. We developed the age-independent score, the Fibrosis-3 (FIB-3) index, and have shown its usefulness in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). This study aimed to validate the diagnostic ability of the FIB-3 index to predict fibrosis progression using a large new patient cohort. METHODS: The ability of the FIB-3 index to predict liver fibrosis was analyzed by comparing it with that of the FIB-4 index using data from 1398 patients with MASLD enrolled in the Asia-based clinical outcome NAFLD study. RESULTS: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting fibrosis stage F3 or higher were not different between the FIB-3 and FIB-4 indices in the entire cohort. Using the single ideal cut-offs of the indices (3.41 for FIB-3 index and 2.01 for FIB-4 index), the predictive accuracy of the FIB-3 index was not significantly different from that of the FIB-4 index among patients aged <60 years; however, the accuracy of the FIB-3 index was significantly higher than that of the FIB-4 index in those aged ≥60 years (0.645 and 0.529, respectively; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The high ability of the FIB-3 index with a single cut-off to predict liver fibrosis in patients with MASLD was confirmed. The FIB-3 index could serve as a useful tool for assessing liver fibrosis regardless of age.

Clinical Outcomes in Biopsy-Proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients: A Multicenter Registry-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are no detailed reports of clinical outcomes in Asian patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who undergo liver biopsy. We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of a large cohort of Asian patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and evaluate the specific effects of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and fibrosis stage. METHODS: This multicenter registry-based retrospective cohort study, called the CLIONE (Clinical Outcome Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease) in Asia, included 1398 patients. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 4.6 years (range, 0.3-21.6 years), representing a total of 8874 person-years of follow-up. During that time, 47 patients died, and 1 patient underwent orthotopic liver transplantation. The leading cause of death was nonhepatic cancer (n = 10). The leading causes of liver-related death were liver failure (n = 9), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (n = 8), and cholangiocellular carcinoma (n = 4). During follow-up, 37 patients developed HCC, 31 developed cardiovascular disease, and 68 developed nonhepatic cancer (mainly breast, stomach, and colon/rectum). Among our cohort of patients with NAFLD, liver-specific mortality was 2.34/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-3.58), overall mortality was 5.34/1000 person-years (95% CI, 4.02-7.08), and HCC incidence was 4.17/1000 person-years (95% CI, 3.02-5.75). Liver fibrosis was independently associated with liver-related events but not overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Liver-related mortality was the leading cause of mortality in Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD. Although fibrosis stage was independently associated with liver-related events, it was not associated with overall mortality after adjusting for confounders, such as histologic features of steatohepatitis.

A Reappraisal of the Diagnostic Performance of B-Mode Ultrasonography for Mild Liver Steatosis.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have shown that ultrasonography has high specificity (80%-100%) but low sensitivity (50%-70%) in diagnosing fatty liver; sensitivity is especially low for mild steatosis. In this study, we aimed to reappraise the diagnostic performance of B-mode ultrasonography (B-USG) for fatty liver disease. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, multinational, multicenter, cross-sectional, observational study (6 referral centers from 3 nations). We included 5,056 participants who underwent both B-USG and magnetic resonance proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) within a 6-month period. The diagnostic performance of B-USG was compared with that of MRI-PDFF as a reference standard for fatty liver diagnosis, using sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: B-USG showed a sensitivity of 83.4%, specificity of 81.0%, and AUC of 0.822 in diagnosing mild liver steatosis (6.5% ≤MRI-PDFF ≤14%). The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC in diagnosing the presence of fatty liver disease (MRI-PDFF ≥6.5%) were 83.4%, 81.0%, and 0.822, respectively. The mean PDFF of B-USG-diagnosed nonfatty liver differed significantly from that of diagnosed mild liver steatosis (3.5% ± 2.8% vs 8.5% ± 5.0%, P < 0.001). The interinstitutional variability of B-USG in diagnosing fatty liver was similar in diagnostic accuracy among the 6 centers (range, 82.8%-88.6%, P = 0.416). DISCUSSION: B-USG was an effective, objective method to detect mild liver steatosis using MRI-PDFF as comparison, regardless of the etiologies and comorbidities.

Influence of liver stiffness heterogeneity on staging fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite that hepatic fibrosis often affects the liver globally, spatial distribution can be heterogeneous. This study aimed to investigate the effect of liver stiffness (LS) heterogeneity on concordance between MR elastography (MRE)-based fibrosis staging and biopsy staging in patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively evaluated data from 155 NAFLD patients who underwent liver biopsy and 3 Tesla MRE and undertook a retrospective validation study of 169 NAFLD patients at three hepatology centers. Heterogeneity of stiffness was assessed by measuring the range between minimum and maximum MRE-based LS measurement (LSM). Variability of LSM was defined as the stiffness range divided by the maximum stiffness value. The cohort was divided into two groups (homogenous or heterogeneous), according to whether variability was below or above the average for the training cohort. Based on histopathology and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, optimum LSM thresholds were determined for MRE-based fibrosis staging of stage 4 (4.43, kPa; AUROC, 0.89) and stage ≥3 (3.93, kPa; AUROC, 0.89). In total, 53 had LSM above the threshold for stage 4. Within this group, 30 had a biopsy stage of <4. In 86.7% of these discordant cases, variability of LSM was classified as heterogeneous. In MRE-based LSM stage ≥3, 88.9% of discordant cases were classified as heterogeneous. Results of the validation cohort were similar to those of the training cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Discordance between biopsy- and MRE-based fibrosis staging is associated with heterogeneity in LSM, as depicted with MRE.

Endoscopic radiofrequency ablation for ingrowth occlusion after bilateral metal stent placement for malignant hilar biliary obstruction: a prospective pilot study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic biliary radiofrequency ablation (RFA) may be an option for the treatment of ingrowth occlusion after self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) deployment; however, its utility remains uncertain. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of RFA for the palliation of ingrowth after bilateral SEMS placement in patients with malignant hilar biliary obstruction. METHODS: This prospective, single-center, pilot study enrolled 30 patients who met the eligibility criteria between April 2020 and March 2022. Study outcomes were technical success, clinical success, recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO), and adverse events (AEs) besides RBO associated with RFA for ingrowth occlusion. Furthermore, factors predictive of clinical success were evaluated. RESULTS: Technical and clinical success rates were 93.3% (28/30) and 71.4% (20/28), respectively. The rates of early and late AEs were 6.7% (2/30) and 10.0% (2/20), respectively. The incidence rate of RBO after RFA was 45.0% (9/20), and the median time to RBO was 163 days. Multivariate analysis of the factors affecting clinical success revealed a positive association between the recanalization diameter on the ingrown part within the SEMS (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.26; P = .038). The calculated optimal cutoff for the ratio of the recanalization diameter to the SEMS diameter for predicting clinical success was 51.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopic biliary RFA elicited promising results, with good long-term stent patency and without the requirement of any additional stent placement, for the palliation of ingrowth occlusion after bilateral SEMS placement. However, the clinical success rate was insufficient, necessitating improvements in the future. (Clinical trial registration number: UMIN000040154.).

Agile 3+ and Agile 4, noninvasive tests for liver fibrosis, are excellent formulae to predict liver-related events in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

AIM: The noninvasive tests (NITs) Agile 3+ and Agile 4 effectively identify patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) complicated with advanced fibrosis (F3-4) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively. Little information is available on associations between Agile scores and intra-/extrahepatic events. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive performance of Agile scores for intra-/extrahepatic events in Asian patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective multicenter cohort study to investigate associations between intra-/extrahepatic events and two Agile scores, Agile 3+ and Agile 4. The scores were obtained by combining clinical parameters and liver stiffness measurement using transient elastography. RESULTS: Among 403 enrolled patients, 11 had liver-related events (LREs), including seven with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The incidence of LREs and HCC showed a stepwise increase in the advanced fibrosis group (F3-4), Agile 3+ rule-in (F3-4, highly suspected), and Agile 4 rule-in (F4, highly suspected) groups, compared to their counterparts. Hazard ratios for LREs in the advanced fibrosis group, Agile 3+ rule-in, and Agile 4 rule-in groups were 4.05 (p = 0.03), 23.5 (p = 0.003), and 45.5 (p < 0.001), respectively. The predictive performance results for Agile 3+ and Agile 4 were 0.780 and 0.866, respectively, which were higher than for fibrosis (0.595). Unlike for LREs, Agile scores failed to identify patients with extrahepatic events, including cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are excellent NITs for predicting LREs in patients with NAFLD, possibly without histological assessment.

Validation of the utility of Agile scores to identify advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in Japanese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

AIM: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores, based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography and clinical parameters, were recently reported to be effective in identifying advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study aimed to validate the utility of these scores in Japanese patients with NAFLD. METHODS: Six hundred forty-one patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were analyzed. The severity of liver fibrosis was pathologically evaluated by one expert pathologist. The LSM, age, sex, diabetes status, platelet count, and aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase levels were used to calculate Agile 3+ scores, and the parameters above excluding age were used for Agile 4 scores. The diagnostic performance of the two scores was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the original low cut-off (for rule-out) value and high cut-off (for rule-in) value were tested. RESULTS: For diagnosis of fibrosis stage ≥3, the area under the ROC (AUROC) was 0.886, and the sensitivity of the low cut-off value and the specificity of the high cut-off value were 95.3% and 73.4%, respectively. For diagnosis of fibrosis stage 4, AUROC, the sensitivity of the low cut-off value, and the specificity of the high cut-off value were 0.930, 100%, and 86.5%, respectively. Both scores had higher diagnostic performance than the FIB-4 index and the enhanced liver fibrosis score. CONCLUSIONS: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 are reliable noninvasive tests to identify advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in Japanese NAFLD patients with adequate diagnostic performance.

Diagnostic accuracy of enhanced liver fibrosis test for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-related fibrosis: Multicenter study.

AIM: The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test is a noninvasive method for diagnosing hepatic fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This multicenter cohort study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the ELF test and compare it with other noninvasive tests in Japan. METHODS: We analyzed 371 Japanese patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. We constructed area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROC) to determine the diagnostic accuracies of the ELF test, the Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi), the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and combinations of these indices. RESULTS: In patients with F0/F1/F2/F3/F4 fibrosis, the median values of the ELF test were 8.98/9.56/10.39/10.92/11.41, respectively. The AUROCs of the ELF test for patients with F0 versus F1-4, F0-1 versus F2-4, F0-2 versus F3-4, and F0-3 versus F4 fibrosis were 0.825/0.817/0.802/0.812, respectively. The AUROCs of the ELF test were greater than those of the FIB-4 index and M2BPGi at each fibrosis stage. Respective low and high cut-off values yielded sensitivities and specificities for predicting advanced fibrosis (≥F3) of 91.1% and 50.8%, and 38.5% and 92.8%, respectively. For F3 or F4 fibrosis, the combined values from the ELF test and FIB-4 index showed a sensitivity of 98.5%, and the combined values from the ELF test and M2BPGi assay showed a specificity of 97.5%. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, the ELF test predicts NAFLD-related fibrosis from its early stages. The diagnostic ability of the ELF test was not inferior to that of other indices, and the combined values of ELF plus other indices were more accurate.

Multicenter, retrospective, cohort study shows platelet counts predict hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

AIM: Impacts of platelet counts at the time of liver biopsy on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of platelet counts in patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD using data from a multicenter study. METHODS: One thousand three hundred ninety-eight patients were included in this subanalysis of the CLIONE (Clinical Outcome Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease) in Asia study. Liver biopsy specimens were pathologically diagnosed, and histologically scored using the NASH Clinical Research Network system. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pathological data were collected. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 4.6 years (range, 0.3-21.6 years), which corresponds to 8874 person-years, 37 patients developed HCC. Using a cut-off baseline platelet count of 192 × 109/L, the lower platelet group had a higher HCC rate than the higher platelet group (6.7% vs. 0.4%; p < 0.001). This cut-off value significantly stratified the event-free rate for HCC. Lower platelet counts were associated with an increased risk of HCC development. Relative to patients with platelet counts of 192 × 109/L, patients with platelet counts of 100 × 109/L had an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for HCC development of 7.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.81-14.2) and an adjusted HR of 11.2 (95% CI, 3.81-32.7; p < 0.001), adjusting for age, sex, NASH, and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline platelet counts of 192 × 109/L and lower are associated with a higher risk of developing HCC in patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD and require active surveillance.

Prevalence and associated metabolic factors of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the general population from 2014 to 2018 in Japan: A large-scale multicenter retrospective study.

AIM: The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the recent prevalence and clinical characteristics of NAFLD in Japan. METHODS: This study initially included 410 061 retrospectively enrolled adults from the medical health checkup registry for metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, and fatty liver in Japan (MIRACLE-J; UMIN-CTR no. UMIN000049419), who were evaluated between 2014 and 2018 at 13 health centers in Japan. Individuals consuming >20 g of alcohol/day or with chronic liver disease were excluded. Fatty liver was diagnosed by ultrasonography. The probability of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was estimated based on the fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score. RESULTS: A total of 71 254 participants were included in the final analysis. The overall prevalence of NAFLD was 25.8%. There was a significant, twofold difference in NAFLD prevalence between men (37.4%) and women (18.1%). Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence increased linearly with body mass index, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol regardless of threshold values, even in the absence of obesity. Among patients with NAFLD, 14% had diabetes mellitus, 31% had hypertension, and 48% had dyslipidemia. The estimated prevalence of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was 1.7% and 1.0% according to the fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of NAFLD was approximately one-quarter of the general population in Japan. There was a linear relationship between NAFLD prevalence and various metabolic parameters, even in nonobese participants. The prevalence of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was estimated to be 1%-2%.

Noninvasive tests predict liver-related events and mortality in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: sub-analysis of the CLIONE-Asia study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Noninvasive tests (NITs) have prognostic potential, but whether NITs are comparable with liver biopsy is unclear. This study aimed to examine the prognostic accuracy of NITs for liver-related mortality (LRM) and events (LREs) in patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: We investigated 1313 patients with NAFLD. Patients were assigned to low-risk, indeterminate-risk, and high-risk groups using conventional cutoff values of each FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and to stage 0-2 and stage 3-4 groups using the fibrosis stage. Survival and Cox regression analyses of the prognostic potential of NITs for LRM/LREs were conducted. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, regarding to FIB-4, the incidence rate (/1000 person-years) in the low risk was zero for LRM and 0.5 for LREs. In contrast, the rate in stage 0-2 was 1.3 for LRM and 2.8 for LRE. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for LREs in the high risk compared with the low risk were 32.85 (P < 0.01). The aHRs in stage 3-4 compared with stage 0-2 were 2.68 (P = 0.02) for LREs and 2.26 (P = 0.582) for LRM. In the same fibrosis stage, the incidence of LRM/LREs was more frequent with a higher risk stratification. The same trend was observed for NFS. CONCLUSIONS: NITs accurately predict LRM and LREs as well as a liver biopsy in Japanese patients with NAFLD. Patients in the low risk may not require close follow-up for at least 5 years. The simple NITs could be an acceptable alternative method to performing a liver biopsy for the prognosis of NAFLD.

Identification of clinical phenotypes associated with poor prognosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease via unsupervised machine learning.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Both fibrosis status and body weight are important for assessing prognosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The aim of this study was to identify population clusters for specific clinical outcomes based on fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and body mass index (BMI) using an unsupervised machine learning method. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter study of 1335 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from Japan. Using the Gaussian mixture model to divide the cohort into clusters based on FIB-4 index and BMI, we investigated prognosis for these clusters. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 223 cases (16.0%) with advanced fibrosis (F3-4) as assessed from liver biopsy. Median values of BMI and FIB-4 index were 27.3 kg/m2 and 1.67. The patients were divided into four clusters by Bayesian information criterion, and all-cause mortality was highest in cluster d, followed by cluster b (P = 0.001). Regarding the characteristics of each cluster, clusters d and b presented a high FIB-4 index (median 5.23 and 2.23), cluster a presented the lowest FIB-4 index (median 0.78), and cluster c was associated with moderate FIB-4 level (median 1.30) and highest BMI (median 34.3 kg/m2 ). Clusters a and c had lower mortality rates than clusters b and d. However, all-cause of death in clusters a and c was unrelated to liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our clustering approach found that the FIB-4 index is an important predictor of mortality in NAFLD patients regardless of BMI. Additionally, non-liver-related diseases were identified as the causes of death in NAFLD patients with low FIB-4 index.

Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Hepaticogastrostomy with Antegrade Stenting Without Dilation Device Application for Malignant Distal Biliary Obstruction in Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound-guided hepaticogastrostomy with antegrade stenting (EUS-HGAS) is a promising therapeutic option for malignant distal biliary obstruction (MDBO) in the event of transpapillary approach failure. Eliminating the fistula dilation step may further decrease the incidence of adverse events (AE) and simplify the procedure. AIMS: This study focused on MDBO associated with pancreatic cancer and aimed to examine the utility of EUS-HGAS without the use of any dilation devices. METHODS: This retrospective study investigated consecutive patients in whom the transpapillary approach had failed or was difficult, and who underwent EUS-HGAS without dilation device usage, using a tapered small-diameter catheter, ultrathin delivery system, and tapered dedicated plastic stent. The outcomes of this study included the technical success, clinical success, AE incidence, and recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO) associated with the procedure. RESULTS: During the study period, EUS-HGAS without dilation device usage was attempted for 57 patients with MDBO due to pancreatic cancer. The technical and clinical success rates were 91.2% (52/57) each. The median procedural time was 25 min. The rates of early and late AE besides RBO were 3.5% (2/57) and 1.9% (1/52), respectively. The incidence rate of RBO was 30.8% (16/52), and the median time to RBO was 245 days. The rate of successful endoscopic reintervention for RBO via the fistula was 100% (16/16). CONCLUSIONS: EUS-HGAS without the use of dilation devices showed good technical feasibility with a low AE rate. It may be a useful option for MDBO associated with pancreatic cancer when the transpapillary approach is difficult.

Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Naso-gallbladder Drainage Using a Dedicated Catheter for Acute Cholecystitis After Transpapillary Metal Stent Placement for Malignant Biliary Obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Acute cholecystitis is a significant adverse event after self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) placement for malignant biliary obstruction (MBO); however, no appropriate treatment strategy has been established for its management. AIMS: This study aimed to examine the feasibility and utility of endoscopic ultrasound-guided naso-gallbladder drainage (EUS-NGBD) for the management of acute cholecystitis occurring after SEMS placement. METHODS: This retrospective study investigated consecutive patients with acute cholecystitis after SEMS placement for unresectable MBO, in whom EUS-NGBD was attempted. The study outcomes included technical success, clinical success, procedure time, adverse event, and cholecystitis recurrence, associated with the procedure. RESULTS: During the study period, EUS-NGBD was performed for SEMS-related acute cholecystitis in 30 patients with MBO. The technical and clinical success rates were 96.7% (29/30) and 96.6% (28/29), respectively. The median procedure time was 15 min, and rate of procedure-related adverse event was 3.3% (1/30). The median duration from the procedure to tube removal was 9 days. No adverse events were observed after removal. The median hospitalization duration after the procedure was 14 days, and the median duration to the (re-)start of chemotherapy from cholecystitis onset was 13 days. The median overall survival after EUS-NGBD was 123 days, and the rate of cholecystitis recurrence until death was 4.2% (1/28). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that EUS-NGBD possesses good technical and clinical feasibility with an acceptable adverse event rates and short hospitalization and chemotherapy withdrawal period. Therefore, EUS-NGBD may be a good option for the treatment of SEMS-related cholecystitis in patients with MBO.

Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests for advanced fibrosis in patients with NAFLD: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Liver biopsy is still needed for fibrosis staging in many patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The aims of this study were to evaluate the individual diagnostic performance of liver stiffness measurement by vibration controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) Fibrosis Score (NFS) and to derive diagnostic strategies that could reduce the need for liver biopsies. DESIGN: Individual patient data meta-analysis of studies evaluating LSM-VCTE against liver histology was conducted. FIB-4 and NFS were computed where possible. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were calculated. Biomarkers were assessed individually and in sequential combinations. RESULTS: Data were included from 37 primary studies (n=5735; 45% women; median age: 54 years; median body mass index: 30 kg/m2; 33% had type 2 diabetes; 30% had advanced fibrosis). AUROCs of individual LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS for advanced fibrosis were 0.85, 0.76 and 0.73. Sequential combination of FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥2.67) followed by LSM-VCTE cut-offs (<8.0; ≥10.0 kPa) to rule-in or rule-out advanced fibrosis had sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) of 66% (63-68) and 86% (84-87) with 33% needing a biopsy to establish a final diagnosis. FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥3.48) followed by LSM cut-offs (<8.0; ≥20.0 kPa) to rule out advanced fibrosis or rule in cirrhosis had a sensitivity of 38% (37-39) and specificity of 90% (89-91) with 19% needing biopsy. CONCLUSION: Sequential combinations of markers with a lower cut-off to rule-out advanced fibrosis and a higher cut-off to rule-in cirrhosis can reduce the need for liver biopsies.

Scissor-type knife precut in balloon enteroscopy-assisted ERCP for patients with difficult biliary cannulation and surgically altered anatomy (with video).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Balloon enteroscopy-assisted ERCP (BE-ERCP) is useful for treating pancreatobiliary disease in patients with surgically altered anatomy (SAA); however, biliary cannulation, including the precut technique, is often challenging. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of scissor-type knife precutting (SKP) during BE-ERCP in patients with SAA. METHODS: This retrospective study investigated consecutive patients who underwent BE-ERCP and SKP for difficult biliary cannulation between 2016 and 2021. The study outcomes included the technical success and adverse event rates associated with SKP during BE-ERCP. RESULTS: During the study period, 125 patients with native duodenal papillae underwent BE-ERCP, and the papilla was reached in 116 patients. The success rate of biliary cannulation with the standard cannulation approach alone was 67.2% (78/116), which increased to 77.6% (90/116) with the inclusion of advanced cannulation techniques besides precutting and further improved to 87.9% (102/116) with the addition of needlife precutting. SKP was attempted in 12 patients in whom all other cannulation approaches were difficult or resulted in failure. The technical success rate of SKP was 66.7% (8/12); thus, SKP increased the final success rate of biliary cannulation to 94.8% (110/116). The rate of adverse events associated with SKP was 8.3% (1/12). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to report the use of the SKP technique for difficult biliary cannulation in patients with SAA, which may serve as a useful option for salvage cannulation during BE-ERCP.