Strehler-Mildvan correlation is a degenerate manifold of Gompertz fit.

Gompertz empirical law of mortality is often used in practical research to parametrize survival fraction as a function of age with the help of just two quantities: the Initial Mortality Rate (IMR) and the Gompertz exponent, inversely proportional to the Mortality Rate Doubling Time (MRDT). The IMR is often found to be inversely related to the Gompertz exponent, which is the dependence commonly referred to as Strehler-Mildvan (SM) correlation. In this paper, we address fundamental uncertainties of the Gompertz parameters inference from experimental Kaplan-Meier plots and show, that a least squares fit often leads to an ill-defined non-linear optimization problem, which is extremely sensitive to sampling errors and the smallest systematic demographic variations. Therefore, an analysis of consequent repeats of the same experiments in the same biological conditions yields the whole degenerate manifold of possible Gompertz parameters. We find that whenever the average lifespan of species greatly exceeds MRDT, small random variations in the survival records produce large deviations in the identified Gompertz parameters along the line, corresponding to the set of all possible IMR and MRDT values, roughly compatible with the properly determined value of average lifespan in experiment. The best fit parameters in this case turn out to be related by a form of SM correlation. Therefore, we have to conclude that the combined property, such as the average lifespan in the group, rather than IMR and MRDT values separately, may often only be reliably determined via experiments, even in a perfectly homogeneous animal cohort due to its finite size and/or low age-sampling frequency, typical for modern high-throughput settings. We support our findings with careful analysis of experimental survival records obtained in cohorts of C. elegans of different sizes, in control groups and under the influence of experimental therapies or environmental conditions. We argue that since, SM correlation may show up as a consequence of the fitting degeneracy, its appearance is not limited to homogeneous cohorts. In fact, the problem persists even beyond the simple Gompertz mortality law. We show that the same degeneracy occurs exactly in the same way, if a more advanced Gompertz-Makeham aging model is employed to improve the modeling. We explain how SM type of relation between the demographic parameters may still be observed even in extremely large cohorts with immense statistical power, such as in human census datasets, provided that systematic historical changes are weak in nature and lead to a gradual change in the mean lifespan.

Causality-enriched epigenetic age uncouples damage and adaptation.

Machine learning models based on DNA methylation data can predict biological age but often lack causal insights. By harnessing large-scale genetic data through epigenome-wide Mendelian randomization, we identified CpG sites potentially causal for aging-related traits. Neither the existing epigenetic clocks nor age-related differential DNA methylation are enriched in these sites. These CpGs include sites that contribute to aging and protect against it, yet their combined contribution negatively affects age-related traits. We established a new framework to introduce causal information into epigenetic clocks, resulting in DamAge and AdaptAge-clocks that track detrimental and adaptive methylation changes, respectively. DamAge correlates with adverse outcomes, including mortality, while AdaptAge is associated with beneficial adaptations. These causality-enriched clocks exhibit sensitivity to short-term interventions. Our findings provide a detailed landscape of CpG sites with putative causal links to lifespan and healthspan, facilitating the development of aging biomarkers, assessing interventions, and studying reversibility of age-associated changes.

Nature of epigenetic aging from a single-cell perspective.

Age-related changes in DNA methylation (DNAm) form the basis of the most robust predictors of age-epigenetic clocks-but a clear mechanistic understanding of exactly which aspects of aging are quantified by these clocks is lacking. Here, to clarify the nature of epigenetic aging, we juxtapose the dynamics of tissue and single-cell DNAm in mice. We compare these changes during early development with those observed during adult aging in mice, and corroborate our analyses with a single-cell RNA sequencing analysis within the same multiomics dataset. We show that epigenetic aging involves co-regulated changes as well as a major stochastic component, and this is consistent with transcriptional patterns. We further support the finding of stochastic epigenetic aging by direct tissue and single-cell DNAm analyses and modeling of aging DNAm trajectories with a stochastic process akin to radiocarbon decay. Finally, we describe a single-cell algorithm for the identification of co-regulated and stochastic CpG clusters showing consistent transcriptomic coordination patterns. Together, our analyses increase our understanding of the basis of epigenetic clocks and highlight potential opportunities for targeting aging and evaluating longevity interventions.

Unsupervised learning of aging principles from longitudinal data.

Age is the leading risk factor for prevalent diseases and death. However, the relation between age-related physiological changes and lifespan is poorly understood. We combined analytical and machine learning tools to describe the aging process in large sets of longitudinal measurements. Assuming that aging results from a dynamic instability of the organism state, we designed a deep artificial neural network, including auto-encoder and auto-regression (AR) components. The AR model tied the dynamics of physiological state with the stochastic evolution of a single variable, the "dynamic frailty indicator" (dFI). In a subset of blood tests from the Mouse Phenome Database, dFI increased exponentially and predicted the remaining lifespan. The observation of the limiting dFI was consistent with the late-life mortality deceleration. dFI changed along with hallmarks of aging, including frailty index, molecular markers of inflammation, senescent cell accumulation, and responded to life-shortening (high-fat diet) and life-extending (rapamycin) treatments.

Longitudinal analysis of blood markers reveals progressive loss of resilience and predicts human lifespan limit.

We investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of the aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state indicator (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120 - 150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.

Germline burden of rare damaging variants negatively affects human healthspan and lifespan.

Heritability of human lifespan is 23-33% as evident from twin studies. Genome-wide association studies explored this question by linking particular alleles to lifespan traits. However, genetic variants identified so far can explain only a small fraction of lifespan heritability in humans. Here, we report that the burden of rarest protein-truncating variants (PTVs) in two large cohorts is negatively associated with human healthspan and lifespan, accounting for 0.4 and 1.3 years of their variability, respectively. In addition, longer-living individuals possess both fewer rarest PTVs and less damaging PTVs. We further estimated that somatic accumulation of PTVs accounts for only a small fraction of mortality and morbidity acceleration and hence is unlikely to be causal in aging. We conclude that rare damaging mutations, both inherited and accumulated throughout life, contribute to the aging process, and that burden of ultra-rare variants in combination with common alleles better explain apparent heritability of human lifespan.

Most living things undergo biological changes as they get older, a process that we generally refer to as aging. Despite being a widespread phenomenon, scientists do not fully understand why we age, though it appears that a combination of genetics and lifestyle factors, such as diet, play a role in influencing lifespan. Aging increases the risk of developing a wide range of diseases, including cancer, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes. As such, finding ways to slow the aging process would help to postpone the onset of illness and potentially improve health in old age. Genes are thought to be responsible for between one quarter and one third of the variation in human lifespans. The relationship between genes, aging and lifespan is complex and not well understood. One set of rare genetic changes that have been shown to have significant effects on diseases are called protein truncation variants (PTVs). PTVs cause damage by altering the production of certain proteins. There are many possible PTVs and people can be born with them or they can develop them in some cells later in life. The full influence of PTVs on aging is not known. Shindyapina, Zenin et al. have now studied observational data collected from two groups of over 40,000 people in the UK. Both groups recorded over 1,000 deaths, and the study examined the influence of PTVs on natural lifespan. The results show that each person is born with an average of six PTVs, which can vary in the impact that they have on aging. Having more, or more severe, PTVs could reduce life expectancy on average by 1.3 years. PTVs affect both total lifespan and healthy lifespan, the period of time lived prior to developing the first age-related disease. While PTVs that people are born with have a significant effect on aging, this study also showed that PTVs that are acquired due to spontaneous mutations through a person's life have much less of an impact. This is a key insight into the relationship between genes and aging. These discoveries could help in using genetics to anticipate future health, it also helps to identify some of the biological systems that have a role in aging. This could lead to new ways to delay the aging process and its effects on health.

A universal transcriptomic signature of age reveals the temporal scaling of Caenorhabditis elegans aging trajectories.

We collected 60 age-dependent transcriptomes for C. elegans strains including four exceptionally long-lived mutants (mean adult lifespan extended 2.2- to 9.4-fold) and three examples of lifespan-increasing RNAi treatments. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveals aging as a transcriptomic drift along a single direction, consistent across the vastly diverse biological conditions and coinciding with the first principal component, a hallmark of the criticality of the underlying gene regulatory network. We therefore expected that the organism's aging state could be characterized by a single number closely related to vitality deficit or biological age. The "aging trajectory", i.e. the dependence of the biological age on chronological age, is then a universal stochastic function modulated by the network stiffness; a macroscopic parameter reflecting the network topology and associated with the rate of aging. To corroborate this view, we used publicly available datasets to define a transcriptomic biomarker of age and observed that the rescaling of age by lifespan simultaneously brings together aging trajectories of transcription and survival curves. In accordance with the theoretical prediction, the limiting mortality value at the plateau agrees closely with the mortality rate doubling exponent estimated at the cross-over age near the average lifespan. Finally, we used the transcriptomic signature of age to identify possible life-extending drug compounds and successfully tested a handful of the top-ranking molecules in C. elegans survival assays and achieved up to a +30% extension of mean lifespan.