Increased Household Secondary Attacks Rates With Variant of Concern Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Index Cases.

We compared secondary attack rates in households with B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) versus non-VOC index cases in a matched cohort in Ontario, Canada. The secondary attack rate for VOC index cases was 1.31 times higher than non-VOC index cases. This increase was particularly accentuated for asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases.

Development and validation of a prediction model of poor performance status and severe symptoms over time in cancer patients (PROVIEW+).

BACKGROUND: Predictive cancer tools focus on survival; none predict severe symptoms. AIM: To develop and validate a model that predicts the risk for having low performance status and severe symptoms in cancer patients. DESIGN: Retrospective, population-based, predictive study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We linked administrative data from cancer patients from 2008 to 2015 in Ontario, Canada. Patients were randomly selected for model derivation (60%) and validation (40%). Using the derivation cohort, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict the risk of an outcome at 6 months following diagnosis and recalculated after each of four annual survivor marks. Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration plots. Outcomes included low performance status (i.e. 10-30 on Palliative Performance Scale), severe pain, dyspnea, well-being, and depression (i.e. 7-10 on Edmonton Symptom Assessment System). RESULTS: We identified 255,494 cancer patients (57% female; median age of 64; common cancers were breast (24%); and lung (13%)). At diagnosis, the predicted risk of having low performance status, severe pain, well-being, dyspnea, and depression in 6-months is 1%, 3%, 6%, 13%, and 4%, respectively for the reference case (i.e. male, lung cancer, stage I, no symptoms); the corresponding discrimination for each outcome model had high AUCs of 0.807, 0.713, 0.709, 0.790, and 0.723, respectively. Generally these covariates increased the outcome risk by >10% across all models: lung disease, dementia, diabetes; radiation treatment; hospital admission; pain; depression; transitional performance status; issues with appetite; or homecare. CONCLUSIONS: The model accurately predicted changing cancer risk for low performance status and severe symptoms over time.

Clinical phenogroups are more effective than left ventricular ejection fraction categories in stratifying heart failure outcomes.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) guidelines place patients into 3 discrete groups according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): reduced (<40%), mid-range (40-49%), and preserved LVEF (≥50%). We assessed whether clinical phenogroups offer better prognostication than LVEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a sub-study of the Patient-Centered Care Transitions in HF trial. We analysed baseline characteristics of hospitalized patients in whom LVEF was recorded. We used unsupervised machine learning to identify clinical phenogroups and, thereafter, determined associations between phenogroups and outcomes. Primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death or rehospitalization at 6 and 12 months. Secondary outcome was the composite cardiovascular death or HF rehospitalization at 6 and 12 months. Cluster analysis of 1693 patients revealed six discrete phenogroups, each characterized by a predominant comorbidity: coronary heart disease, valvular heart disease, atrial fibrillation (AF), sleep apnoea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or few comorbidities. Phenogroups were LVEF independent, with each phenogroup encompassing a wide range of LVEFs. For the primary composite outcome at 6 months, the hazard ratios (HRs) for phenogroups ranged from 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.58 for AF] to 2.04 (95% CI 1.62-2.57 for COPD) (log-rank P < 0.001); and at 12 months, the HRs for phenogroups ranged from 1.15 (95% CI 0.94-1.41 for AF) to 1.87 (95% 1.52-3.20 for COPD) (P < 0.002). LVEF-based classifications did not separate patients into different risk categories for the primary outcomes at 6 months (P = 0.69) and 12 months (P = 0.30). Phenogroups also stratified risk of the secondary composite outcome at 6 and 12 months more effectively than LVEF. CONCLUSION: Among patients hospitalized for HF, clinical phenotypes generated by unsupervised machine learning provided greater prognostic information for a composite of clinical endpoints at 6 and 12 months compared with LVEF-based categories. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02112227.

Comparison of 4-Year Health Care Expenditures Associated With Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass vs Sleeve Gastrectomy.

Importance: Data on the long-term health care expenditures associated with bariatric surgery consisting of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and sleeve gastrectomy are lacking. Objective: To compare 4-year health care expenditures after RYGB vs sleeve gastrectomy, identify factors independently associated with 4-year health care expenditures, and compare the procedures in terms of subsequent hospitalizations, bariatric procedures, and all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this propensity score-matched cohort study, all residents of Ontario, Canada, who underwent publicly funded surgery with RYGB (n = 6301) or sleeve gastrectomy (n = 926) from March 1, 2010, to March 31, 2015, and consented to participate in the Ontario Bariatric Registry were eligible for the study. Follow-up was completed on March 31, 2019, and data were analyzed from May 5, 2020, to May 20, 2021. Interventions: RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Publicly funded health care expenditures, subsequent hospitalizations, bariatric procedures, and mortality during the 4 years after RYGB or sleeve gastrectomy. Results: The 1:1 matched study cohorts consisted of 1624 patients (812 per cohort) with a mean (SD) age of 48.0 (10.6) years, and 1242 women (76.5%). The mean body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in square meters) was 51.9 (8.3) for the RYGB cohort and 51.9 (8.9) for the sleeve gastrectomy cohort. The 4-year cumulative costs were not statistically significantly different between RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy (mean [SD], $33 682 [$31 169] vs $33 948 [$32 633], respectively; P = .86). Having a history of coronary artery disease was associated with a 35% increase in overall health care expenditures; chronic kidney disease, a 54% increase; and mental health admissions, a 67% increase. There were no statistically significant differences in all-cause mortality between RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy (1.5% vs 2.2%, respectively; P = .26) or the total number of hospitalizations (754 vs 669, respectively; P = .11) during the 4-year follow-up period. However, nonelective hospitalizations occurred more frequently with RYGB vs sleeve gastrectomy (472 vs 339, respectively; P = .002). Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was associated with relatively fewer subsequent bariatric procedures during the 4-year follow-up period (9 vs 40, respectively; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this Canadian population-based study, key results indicated that 4-year health care expenditures, all-cause mortality, and number of hospital admissions associated with RYGB did not significantly differ from those for sleeve gastrectomy. The rate of subsequent bariatric surgery was lower with RYGB. This study identified important patient-level drivers of health care expenditures that need to be further investigated.

Association of Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass With Postoperative Health Care Use and Expenditures in Canada.

Importance: Results of previous studies are mixed regarding the economic implications of a Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). Objective: To assess the 5-year incremental health care use and expenditures after RYGB. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study conducted in Ontario, Canada, used a difference-in-differences approach to compare health care use and expenditures between patients who underwent a publicly funded RYGB from March 1, 2010, to March 31, 2013, and propensity score-matched control individuals who did not undergo a surgical bariatric procedure. The study period allowed for a minimum 60 months of follow-up because, at that time, the most recent date for which administrative data on health care and expenditures were available was March 31, 2018. Data sources included the Ontario Bariatric Registry linked to several Ontario health administrative databases and the Electronic Medical Record Administrative Data Linked Database. Health care use and expenditures data for 5 years before and 5 years after the index date (procedure date for RYGB group; random date for controls) were analyzed. Data analyses were performed March 12, 2019, to March 10, 2020. Intervention: RYGB procedure. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was total health care expenditures. Results: The final propensity score-matched cohorts comprised 1587 individuals in the RYGB group (mean [SD] age, 47 [10.2] years) and 1587 controls (mean [SD] age, 47 [12.2] years); each group had 1228 women (77.4%) and a mean body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 46. Mean total health care expenditures (2017 Canadian dollars) per patient in the RYGB group increased from CAD $15 594 (95% CI, CAD $14 743 to CAD $16 614) (US $12 008 [95% CI, US $11 353 to US $12 794]) in the 5 years before the procedure to CAD $30 389 (95% CI, CAD $28 789 to CAD $32 232) (US $23 401 [95% CI, US $22 169 to US $24 821]) over the 5 years after the procedure, a difference of CAD $14 795 (95% CI, CAD $13 172 to CAD $16 480) (US $11 393 [95% CI, US $10 143 to US $12 691]). For the control group, mean total health care expenditures per individual increased from CAD $16 109 (95% CI, CAD $14 727 to CAD $17 591) (US $12 405 [95% CI, US $11 341 to US $13 546]) 5 years before the index date to CAD $20 073 (95% CI, CAD $18 147 to CAD $22 169) (US $15 457 [95% CI, US $13 974 to US $17 071]) 5 years after the date, a difference of CAD $3964 (95% CI, CAD $2250 to CAD $5875) (US $3053 [95% CI, US $1733 to US $4524]). Overall, the difference-in-differences estimate of the net cost of RYGB was CAD $10 831 (95% CI, CAD $8252 to CAD $13 283) (US $8341 [95% CI, $6355 to $10 229]) over the 5-year period. This amount excluded the mean (SD) cost associated with the index date: CAD $6501 (CAD $1087) (US $5006 [US $837]) for the RYGB cohort and CAD $9 (CAD $72) (US $7 [US $55]) for the controls. The cost differential was primarily associated with increased hospitalizations in the first months immediately after RYGB. Expenditures leveled off in year 3 after the index date; differences in total expenditures between the RYGB and control cohorts were not statistically significantly different in years 4 and 5. Conclusions and Relevance: Health care expenditures in the 3 years after publicly funded RYGB were higher in patients who underwent the procedure than in control individuals, but the costs were similar thereafter. This finding suggests the need to decrease hospital and emergency department readmissions after surgical bariatric procedures because such use is associated with increased spending.

At-a-glance - What can social media tell us about the opioid crisis in Canada? / Aperçu - Que révèlent les médias sociaux au sujet de la crise des opioïdes au Canada?

We explored social media as a potential data source for acquiring realtime information on opioid use and perceptions in Canada. Twitter messages were collected through a social media analytics platform between June 15, 2017, and July 13, 2017, and analyzed to identify recurring topics mentioned in the messages. Messages concerning the medical use of opioids as well as commentary on the Canadian government's current response efforts to the opioid crisis were common. The findings of this study may help to inform public health practice and community stakeholders in their efforts to address the opioid crisis.

RÉSUMÉ: Nous avons utilisé les médias sociaux comme source de données potentielle pour obtenir de l'information en temps réel sur l'usage des opioïdes et sur les perceptions entourant ces substances au Canada. Nous avons recueilli des messages sur Twitter au moyen d'une plateforme d'analyse des médias sociaux entre le 15 juin et le 13 juillet 2017, puis nous les avons analysés afin d'y déceler les thèmes récurrents. Nous avons souvent relevé des messages concernant l'usage d'opioïdes à des fins médicales ainsi que des commentaires sur les efforts d'intervention déployés par le gouvernement du Canada dans le cadre de la crise des opioïdes. Les résultats de l'étude pourraient aider à orienter les pratiques en santé publique ainsi qu'à soutenir les intervenants communautaires dans leurs efforts pour contrer la crise.

Sentinel surveillance of suspected opioid-related poisonings and injuries: trends and context derived from the electronic Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program, March 2011 to June 2017. / Surveillance des cas suspectés d'intoxication et de blessures liées aux opioïdes : tendances et contexte tirés du Système canadien hospitalier d'information et de recherche en prévention des traumatismes, mars 2011 à juin 2017.

INTRODUCTION: The opioid epidemic is currently a major public health problem in Canada. As such, knowledge of upstream risk factors associated with opioid use is needed to inform injury prevention, health promotion and harm reduction efforts. METHODS: We analyzed data extracted from 11 pediatric and 6 general hospital emergency departments (EDs) as part of the electronic Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program (eCHIRPP) from March 2011 to June 2017. We identified suspected opioid-related injuries using search strings and manually verified them. We computed age-adjusted and sex-stratified proportionate injury ratios (PIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to compare opioid-related injuries to all injuries in eCHIRPP. Negative binomial regression was used to determine trends over time. We conducted qualitative analyses of narratives to identify common themes across life stages. RESULTS: Between March 2011 and June 2017, 583 suspected opioid-related poisoning/ injury cases were identified from eCHIRPP. Most of the cases were females (55%). Many of the injuries occurred in patients' own homes (51%). Forty-five percent of the injuries were intentional self-harm. Among children (aged 1-9 years), most injuries were caused by inadvertent consumption of opioids left unattended. Among youth (aged 10-19 years) and adults (aged 20-49 years), opioid use was associated with underlying mental illness. Overall, the average annual percent change (AAPC) in the rate of injuries (per 100 000 eCHIRPP cases) has been increasing since 2012 (AAPC = 11.9%, p < .05). The increase is particularly evident for males (AAPC = 16.3%, p < .05). Compared to other injuries, people with suspected opioid-related injuries were more likely to be admitted to hospital (PIR = 5.3, 95% CI: 4.6-6.2). CONCLUSION: The upstream determinants of opioid-related injuries are complex and likely vary by subpopulations. Therefore, continued monitoring of risk factors is important in providing the evidence necessary to prevent future overdoses and deaths.

INTRODUCTION: La crise actuelle des opioïdes est un problème de santé publique majeur au Canada. Il est nécessaire de connaître les facteurs de risque en amont associés à la consommation d'opioïdes pour éclairer les efforts de prévention des blessures, de promotion de la santé et de réduction des méfaits. MÉTHODOLOGIE: Nous avons analysé les données sur les blessures subies par des personnes traitées dans les services d'urgence (SU) de onze hôpitaux pédiatriques et de six hôpitaux généraux au Canada et recueillies par le Système canadien hospitalier d'information et de recherche en prévention des traumatismes en ligne (SCHIRPTe) entre mars 2011 et juin 2017. Nous avons identifié les blessures apparemment liées aux opioïdes au moyen de chaînes de recherche et nous les avons vérifiées manuellement. Nous avons calculé des rapports proportionnels de blessures (RPB) en fonction de l'âge et du sexe ainsi que des intervalles de confiance à 95 % pour comparer les blessures liées à la consommation d'opioïdes à l'ensemble des blessures figurant dans le SCHIRPTe. Une régression binomiale négative a été utilisée pour déterminer les tendances au fil du temps. Nous avons effectué des analyses qualitatives des informations descriptives afin d'en dégager les thèmes communs spécifiques à chaque étape de vie. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons identifié 583 cas d'intoxications ou de blessures apparemment liées aux opioïdes dans le SCHIRPTe pour la période allant de mars 2011 à juin 2017. La majorité concernaient des femmes (55 %) et sont survenues au domicile des patients (51 %). Quarante-cinq pour cent des blessures étaient des automutilations intentionnelles. Chez les enfants (1 à 9 ans), la plupart des blessures ont été causées par une consommation accidentelle d'opioïdes laissés sans surveillance. Chez les jeunes (10 à 19 ans) et les adultes (20 à 49 ans), la consommation d'opioïdes était associée à une maladie mentale sous-jacente. Dans l'ensemble, on observe une augmentation de la variation annuelle moyenne en pourcentage (VAMP) du taux de blessures (pour 100 000 cas dans le SCHIRPTe) depuis 2012 (VAMP = 11,9 %, p < 0,05), particulièrement marquée chez les hommes (VAMP = 16,3 %, p < 0,05). Les personnes victimes de blessures apparemment liées à la consommation d'opioïdes étaient plus susceptibles d'être admises à l'hôpital que les personnes victimes d'autres types de blessure (RPB = 5,3, IC à 95 % : 4,6 à 6,2). CONCLUSION: Les déterminants en amont des blessures liées à l'utilisation d'opioïdes sont complexes et varient probablement selon les sous-populations. La surveillance continue des facteurs de risque est donc importante afin d'obtenir les données probantes nécessaires à la prévention d'autres surdoses et décès.