A polymorphic p53 response element in KIT ligand influences cancer risk and has undergone natural selection.

The ability of p53 to regulate transcription is crucial for tumor suppression and implies that inherited polymorphisms in functional p53-binding sites could influence cancer. Here, we identify a polymorphic p53 responsive element and demonstrate its influence on cancer risk using genome-wide data sets of cancer susceptibility loci, genetic variation, p53 occupancy, and p53-binding sites. We uncover a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in a functional p53-binding site and establish its influence on the ability of p53 to bind to and regulate transcription of the KITLG gene. The SNP resides in KITLG and associates with one of the largest risks identified among cancer genome-wide association studies. We establish that the SNP has undergone positive selection throughout evolution, signifying a selective benefit, but go on to show that similar SNPs are rare in the genome due to negative selection, indicating that polymorphisms in p53-binding sites are primarily detrimental to humans.

Pervasive chromosomal instability and karyotype order in tumour evolution.

Chromosomal instability in cancer consists of dynamic changes to the number and structure of chromosomes1,2. The resulting diversity in somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) may provide the variation necessary for tumour evolution1,3,4. Here we use multi-sample phasing and SCNA analysis of 1,421 samples from 394 tumours across 22 tumour types to show that continuous chromosomal instability results in pervasive SCNA heterogeneity. Parallel evolutionary events, which cause disruption in the same genes (such as BCL9, MCL1, ARNT (also known as HIF1B), TERT and MYC) within separate subclones, were present in 37% of tumours. Most recurrent losses probably occurred before whole-genome doubling, that was found as a clonal event in 49% of tumours. However, loss of heterozygosity at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus and loss of chromosome 8p to a single haploid copy recurred at substantial subclonal frequencies, even in tumours with whole-genome doubling, indicating ongoing karyotype remodelling. Focal amplifications that affected chromosomes 1q21 (which encompasses BCL9, MCL1 and ARNT), 5p15.33 (TERT), 11q13.3 (CCND1), 19q12 (CCNE1) and 8q24.1 (MYC) were frequently subclonal yet appeared to be clonal within single samples. Analysis of an independent series of 1,024 metastatic samples revealed that 13 focal SCNAs were enriched in metastatic samples, including gains in chromosome 8q24.1 (encompassing MYC) in clear cell renal cell carcinoma and chromosome 11q13.3 (encompassing CCND1) in HER2+ breast cancer. Chromosomal instability may enable the continuous selection of SCNAs, which are established as ordered events that often occur in parallel, throughout tumour evolution.

Genetic predisposition to mosaic Y chromosome loss in blood.

Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (LOY) in circulating white blood cells is the most common form of clonal mosaicism1-5, yet our knowledge of the causes and consequences of this is limited. Here, using a computational approach, we estimate that 20% of the male population represented in the UK Biobank study (n = 205,011) has detectable LOY. We identify 156 autosomal genetic determinants of LOY, which we replicate in 757,114 men of European and Japanese ancestry. These loci highlight genes that are involved in cell-cycle regulation and cancer susceptibility, as well as somatic drivers of tumour growth and targets of cancer therapy. We demonstrate that genetic susceptibility to LOY is associated with non-haematological effects on health in both men and women, which supports the hypothesis that clonal haematopoiesis is a biomarker of genomic instability in other tissues. Single-cell RNA sequencing identifies dysregulated expression of autosomal genes in leukocytes with LOY and provides insights into why clonal expansion of these cells may occur. Collectively, these data highlight the value of studying clonal mosaicism to uncover fundamental mechanisms that underlie cancer and other ageing-related diseases.

Multiplex analysis of intratumoural immune infiltrate and prognosis in patients with stage II-III colorectal cancer from the SCOT and QUASAR 2 trials: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-infiltrating CD8+ cytotoxic T cells confer favourable prognosis in colorectal cancer. The added prognostic value of other infiltrating immune cells is unclear and so we sought to investigate their prognostic value in two large clinical trial cohorts. METHODS: We used multiplex immunofluorescent staining of tissue microarrays to assess the densities of CD8+, CD20+, FoxP3+, and CD68+ cells in the intraepithelial and intrastromal compartments from tumour samples of patients with stage II-III colorectal cancer from the SCOT trial (ISRCTN59757862), which examined 3 months versus 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy, and from the QUASAR 2 trial (ISRCTN45133151), which compared adjuvant capecitabine with or without bevacizumab. Both trials included patients aged 18 years or older with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1. Immune marker predictors were analysed by multiple regression, and the prognostic and predictive values of markers for colorectal cancer recurrence-free interval by Cox regression were assessed using the SCOT cohort for discovery and QUASAR 2 cohort for validation. FINDINGS: After exclusion of cases without tissue microarrays and with technical failures, and following quality control, we included 2340 cases from the SCOT trial and 1069 from the QUASAR 2 trial in our analysis. Univariable analysis of associations with recurrence-free interval in cases from the SCOT trial showed a strong prognostic value of intraepithelial CD8 (CD8IE) as a continuous variable (hazard ratio [HR] for 75th vs 25th percentile [75vs25] 0·73 [95% CI 0·68-0·79], p=2·5 × 10-16), and of intrastromal FoxP3 (FoxP3IS; 0·71 [0·64-0·78], p=1·5 × 10-13) but not as strongly in the epithelium (FoxP3IE; 0·89 [0·84-0·96], p=1·5 × 10-4). Associations of other markers with recurrence-free interval were moderate. CD8IE and FoxP3IS retained independent prognostic value in bivariable and multivariable analysis, and, compared with either marker alone, a composite marker including both markers (CD8IE-FoxP3IS) was superior when assessed as a continuous variable (adjusted [a]HR75 vs 25 0·70 [95% CI 0·63-0·78], p=5·1 × 10-11) and when categorised into low, intermediate, and high density groups using previously published cutpoints (aHR for intermediate vs high 1·68 [95% CI 1·29-2·20], p=1·3 × 10-4; low vs high 2·58 [1·91-3·49], p=7·9 × 10-10), with performance similar to the gold-standard Immunoscore. The prognostic value of CD8IE-FoxP3IS was confirmed in cases from the QUASAR 2 trial, both as a continuous variable (aHR75 vs 25 0·84 [95% CI 0·73-0·96], p=0·012) and as a categorical variable for low versus high density (aHR 1·80 [95% CI 1·17-2·75], p=0·0071) but not for intermediate versus high (1·30 [0·89-1·88], p=0·17). INTERPRETATION: Combined evaluation of CD8IE and FoxP3IS could help to refine risk stratification in colorectal cancer. Investigation of FoxP3IS cells as an immunotherapy target in colorectal cancer might be merited. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Cancer Research UK, Swedish Cancer Society, Roche, and Promedica Foundation.

The Evolutionary Landscape of Colorectal Tumorigenesis: Recent Paradigms, Models, and Hypotheses.

Using colorectal cancer as a model, we review some of the insights into cancer evolution afforded by cancer sequencing. These include nonlinear and neutral evolution; polyclonality of driver mutations and parallel evolution in adenomas, although these are rare in carcinomas; the ability of mutational processes to shape evolution against the force of selection; the presence of rare driver genes that function in the same signaling pathways as the longstanding canonical drivers; and the existence of selective windows that constrain the functional effects of cancer driver mutations within limits. Many of these nascent evolutionary paradigms are potentially important for treating colorectal cancers as well as understanding their development.

Expression of the cancer-associated DNA polymerase ε P286R in fission yeast leads to translesion synthesis polymerase dependent hypermutation and defective DNA replication.

Somatic and germline mutations in the proofreading domain of the replicative DNA polymerase ε (POLE-exonuclease domain mutations, POLE-EDMs) are frequently found in colorectal and endometrial cancers and, occasionally, in other tumours. POLE-associated cancers typically display hypermutation, and a unique mutational signature, with a predominance of C > A transversions in the context TCT and C > T transitions in the context TCG. To understand better the contribution of hypermutagenesis to tumour development, we have modelled the most recurrent POLE-EDM (POLE-P286R) in Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Whole-genome sequencing analysis revealed that the corresponding pol2-P287R allele also has a strong mutator effect in vivo, with a high frequency of base substitutions and relatively few indel mutations. The mutations are equally distributed across different genomic regions, but in the immediate vicinity there is an asymmetry in AT frequency. The most abundant base-pair changes are TCT > TAT transversions and, in contrast to human mutations, TCG > TTG transitions are not elevated, likely due to the absence of cytosine methylation in fission yeast. The pol2-P287R variant has an increased sensitivity to elevated dNTP levels and DNA damaging agents, and shows reduced viability on depletion of the Pfh1 helicase. In addition, S phase is aberrant and RPA foci are elevated, suggestive of ssDNA or DNA damage, and the pol2-P287R mutation is synthetically lethal with rad3 inactivation, indicative of checkpoint activation. Significantly, deletion of genes encoding some translesion synthesis polymerases, most notably Pol κ, partially suppresses pol2-P287R hypermutation, indicating that polymerase switching contributes to this phenotype.

A sensitive and affordable multiplex RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

With the ongoing COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), there is a need for sensitive, specific, and affordable diagnostic tests to identify infected individuals, not all of whom are symptomatic. The most sensitive test involves the detection of viral RNA using RT-qPCR (quantitative reverse transcription PCR), with many commercial kits now available for this purpose. However, these are expensive, and supply of such kits in sufficient numbers cannot always be guaranteed. We therefore developed a multiplex assay using well-established SARS-CoV-2 targets alongside a human cellular control (RPP30) and a viral spike-in control (Phocine Herpes Virus 1 [PhHV-1]), which monitor sample quality and nucleic acid extraction efficiency, respectively. Here, we establish that this test performs as well as widely used commercial assays, but at substantially reduced cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate >1,000-fold variability in material routinely collected by combined nose and throat swabbing and establish a statistically significant correlation between the detected level of human and SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids. The inclusion of the human control probe in our assay therefore provides a quantitative measure of sample quality that could help reduce false-negative rates. We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a robust RT-qPCR assay at approximately 10% of the cost of equivalent commercial assays, which could benefit low-resource environments and make high-volume testing affordable.

Genomic Evolution and Transcriptional Changes in the Evolution of Prostate Cancer into Neuroendocrine and Ductal Carcinoma Types.

Prostate cancer is typically of acinar adenocarcinoma type but can occasionally present as neuroendocrine and/or ductal type carcinoma. These are associated with clinically aggressive disease, and the former often arises on a background of androgen deprivation therapy, although it can also arise de novo. Two prostate cancer cases were sequenced by exome capture from archival tissue. Case 1 was de novo small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma and ductal adenocarcinoma with three longitudinal samples over 5 years. Case 2 was a single time point after the development of treatment-related neuroendocrine prostate carcinoma. Case 1 showed whole genome doubling in all samples and focal amplification of AR in all samples except the first time point. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a common ancestry for ductal and small cell carcinoma. Case 2 showed 13q loss (involving RB1) in both adenocarcinoma and small cell carcinoma regions, and 3p gain, 4p loss, and 17p loss (involving TP53) in the latter. By using highly curated samples, we demonstrate for the first time that small-cell neuroendocrine and ductal prostatic carcinoma can have a common ancestry. We highlight whole genome doubling in a patient with prostate cancer relapse, reinforcing its poor prognostic nature.

Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis of the relationship between circulating vitamin D concentration and colorectal cancer risk.

Epidemiological evidence is consistent with a protective effect of vitamin D against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the observed strong associations are open to confounders and potential reverse causation. Previous Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies were limited by poor genetic instruments and inadequate statistical power. Moreover, whether genetically higher CRC risk can influence vitamin D level, namely the reverse causation, still remains unknown. Herein, we report the first bidirectional MR study. We employed 110 newly identified genetic variants as proxies for vitamin D to obtain unconfounded effect estimates on CRC risk in 26 397 CRC cases and 41 481 controls of European ancestry. To test for reserve causation, we estimated effects of 115 CRC-risk variants on vitamin D level among 417 580 participants from the UK Biobank. The causal association was estimated using the random-effect inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. We found no significant causal effect of vitamin D on CRC risk [IVW estimate odds ratio: 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.88-1.07, P = .565]. Similarly, no significant reverse causal association was identified between genetically increased CRC risk and vitamin D levels (IVW estimate ß: -0.002, 95% CI = -0.008 to 0.004, P = .543). Stratified analysis by tumour sites did not identify significant causal associations in either direction between vitamin D and colon or rectal cancer. Despite the improved statistical power of this study, we found no evidence of causal association of either direction between circulating vitamin D and CRC risk. Significant associations reported by observational studies may be primarily driven by unidentified confounders.

Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of colorectal cancer risk SNP effects on health outcomes in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Associations between colorectal cancer (CRC) and other health outcomes have been reported, but these may be subject to biases, or due to limitations of observational studies. METHODS: We set out to determine whether genetic predisposition to CRC is also associated with the risk of other phenotypes. Under the phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) and tree-structured phenotypic model (TreeWAS), we studied 334,385 unrelated White British individuals (excluding CRC patients) from the UK Biobank cohort. We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) from CRC genome-wide association studies as a measure of CRC risk. We performed sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results and searched the Danish Disease Trajectory Browser (DTB) to replicate the observed associations. RESULTS: Eight PheWAS phenotypes and 21 TreeWAS nodes were associated with CRC genetic predisposition by PheWAS and TreeWAS, respectively. The PheWAS detected associations were from neoplasms and digestive system disease group (e.g. benign neoplasm of colon, anal and rectal polyp and diverticular disease). The results from the TreeWAS corroborated the results from the PheWAS. These results were replicated in the observational data within the DTB. CONCLUSIONS: We show that benign colorectal neoplasms share genetic aetiology with CRC using PheWAS and TreeWAS methods. Additionally, CRC genetic predisposition is associated with diverticular disease.

Cancer: evolution within a lifetime.

Subclonal cancer populations change spatially and temporally during the disease course. Studies are revealing branched evolutionary cancer growth with low-frequency driver events present in subpopulations of cells, providing escape mechanisms for targeted therapeutic approaches. Despite such complexity, evidence is emerging for parallel evolution of subclones, mediated through distinct somatic events converging on the same gene, signal transduction pathway, or protein complex in different subclones within the same tumor. Tumors may follow gradualist paths (microevolution) as well as major shifts in evolutionary trajectories (macroevolution). Although macroevolution has been subject to considerable controversy in post-Darwinian evolutionary theory, we review evidence that such nongradual, saltatory leaps, driven through chromosomal rearrangements or genome doubling, may be particularly relevant to tumor evolution. Adapting cancer care to the challenges imposed by tumor micro- and macroevolution and developing deeper insight into parallel evolutionary events may prove central to improving outcome and reducing drug development costs.

Randomised trial of population-based BRCA testing in Ashkenazi Jews: long-term secondary lifestyle behavioural outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) population-based BRCA testing is acceptable, cost-effective and amplifies primary prevention for breast & ovarian cancer. However, data describing lifestyle impact are lacking. We report long-term results of population-based BRCA testing on lifestyle behaviour and cancer risk perception. DESIGN: Two-arm randomised controlled trials (ISRCTN73338115, GCaPPS): (a) population-screening (PS); (b) family history (FH)/clinical criteria testing. SETTING: North London AJ-population. POPULATION/SAMPLE: AJ women/men >18 years. EXCLUSIONS: prior BRCA testing or first-degree relatives of BRCA-carriers. METHODS: Participants were recruited through self-referral. All participants received informed pre-test genetic counselling. The intervention included genetic testing for three AJ BRCA-mutations: 185delAG(c.68_69delAG), 5382insC(c.5266dupC) and 6174delT(c.5946delT). This was undertaken for all participants in the PS arm and participants fulfilling FH/clinical criteria in the FH arm. Patients filled out customised/validated questionnaires at baseline/1-year/2-year/3-year follow-ups. Generalised linear-mixed models adjusted for covariates and appropriate contrast tests were used for between-group/within-group analysis of lifestyle and behavioural outcomes along with evaluating factors associated with these outcomes. Outcomes are adjusted for multiple testing (Bonferroni method), with P < 0.0039 considered significant. OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifestyle/behavioural outcomes at baseline/1-year/2-year/3-year follow-ups. RESULTS: 1034 participants were randomised to PS (n = 530) or FH (n = 504) arms. No significant difference was identified between PS- and FH-based BRCA testing approaches in terms of dietary fruit/vegetable/meat consumption, vitamin intake, alcohol quantity/ frequency, smoking behaviour (frequency/cessation), physical activity/exercise or routine breast mammogram screening behaviour, with outcomes not affected by BRCA test result. Cancer risk perception decreased with time following BRCA testing, with no difference between FH/PS approaches, and the perception of risk was lowest in BRCA-negative participants. Men consumed fewer fruits/vegetables/vitamins and more meat/alcohol than women (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Population-based and FH-based AJ BRCA testing have similar long-term lifestyle impacts on smoking, alcohol, dietary fruit/vegetable/meat/vitamin, exercise, breast screening participation and reduced cancer risk perception.

Germline RET variants underlie a subset of paediatric osteosarcoma.

BACKGROUND: Although considerable effort has been put into decoding of the osteosarcoma genome, very little is known about germline mutations that underlie this primary malignant tumour of bone. METHODS AND RESULTS: We followed here a coincidental finding in a multiple endocrine neoplasia family in which a 32-year-old patient carrying a germline pathogenic RET mutation developed an osteosarcoma 2 years after the resection of a medullary thyroid carcinoma. Sequencing analysis of additional 336 patients with osteosarcoma led to the identification of germline activating mutations in the RET proto-oncogene in three cases and somatic amplifications of the gene locus in five matched tumours (4%, n=5/124 tumours). Functional analysis of the pathogenic variants together with an integrative analysis of osteosarcoma genomes confirmed that the mutant RET proteins couple functional kinase activity to dysfunctional ligand binding. RET mutations further co-operated with alterations in TP53 and RB1, suggesting that osteosarcoma pathogenesis bears reminiscence to the stepwise model of medullary thyroid carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: After Li-Fraumeni-predisposing mutations in TP53, RET becomes the second most mutated cancer-predisposing gene in the germline of patients with osteosarcoma. Hence, early identification of RET mutation carriers can help to identify at-risk family members and carry out preventive measures.

Image-based consensus molecular subtype (imCMS) classification of colorectal cancer using deep learning.

OBJECTIVE: Complex phenotypes captured on histological slides represent the biological processes at play in individual cancers, but the link to underlying molecular classification has not been clarified or systematised. In colorectal cancer (CRC), histological grading is a poor predictor of disease progression, and consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) cannot be distinguished without gene expression profiling. We hypothesise that image analysis is a cost-effective tool to associate complex features of tissue organisation with molecular and outcome data and to resolve unclassifiable or heterogeneous cases. In this study, we present an image-based approach to predict CRC CMS from standard H&E sections using deep learning. DESIGN: Training and evaluation of a neural network were performed using a total of n=1206 tissue sections with comprehensive multi-omic data from three independent datasets (training on FOCUS trial, n=278 patients; test on rectal cancer biopsies, GRAMPIAN cohort, n=144 patients; and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), n=430 patients). Ground truth CMS calls were ascertained by matching random forest and single sample predictions from CMS classifier. RESULTS: Image-based CMS (imCMS) accurately classified slides in unseen datasets from TCGA (n=431 slides, AUC)=0.84) and rectal cancer biopsies (n=265 slides, AUC=0.85). imCMS spatially resolved intratumoural heterogeneity and provided secondary calls correlating with bioinformatic prediction from molecular data. imCMS classified samples previously unclassifiable by RNA expression profiling, reproduced the expected correlations with genomic and epigenetic alterations and showed similar prognostic associations as transcriptomic CMS. CONCLUSION: This study shows that a prediction of RNA expression classifiers can be made from H&E images, opening the door to simple, cheap and reliable biological stratification within routine workflows.

Genetic mapping of novel modifiers for ApcMin induced intestinal polyps' development using the genetic architecture power of the collaborative cross mice.

BACKGROUND: Familial adenomatous polyposis is an inherited genetic disease, characterized by colorectal polyps. It is caused by inactivating mutations in the Adenomatous polyposis coli (Apc) gene. Mice carrying a nonsense mutation in the Apc gene at R850, which is designated ApcMin/+ (Multiple intestinal neoplasia), develop intestinal adenomas. Several genetic modifier loci of Min (Mom) were previously mapped, but so far, most of the underlying genes have not been identified. To identify novel modifier loci associated with ApcMin/+, we performed quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis for polyp development using 49 F1 crosses between different Collaborative Cross (CC) lines and C57BL/6 J-ApcMin/+mice. The CC population is a genetic reference panel of recombinant inbred lines, each line independently descended from eight genetically diverse founder strains. C57BL/6 J-ApcMin/+ males were mated with females from 49 CC lines. F1 offspring were terminated at 23 weeks and polyp counts from three sub-regions (SB1-3) of small intestinal and colon were recorded. RESULTS: The number of polyps in all these sub-regions and colon varied significantly between the different CC lines. At 95% genome-wide significance, we mapped nine novel QTL for variation in polyp number, with distinct QTL associated with each intestinal sub-region. QTL confidence intervals varied in width between 2.63-17.79 Mb. We extracted all genes in the mapped QTL at 90 and 95% CI levels using the BioInfoMiner online platform to extract, significantly enriched pathways and key linker genes, that act as regulatory and orchestrators of the phenotypic landscape associated with the ApcMin/+ mutation. CONCLUSIONS: Genomic structure of the CC lines has allowed us to identify novel modifiers and confirmed some of the previously mapped modifiers. Key genes involved mainly in metabolic and immunological processes were identified. Future steps in this analysis will be to identify regulatory elements - and possible epistatic effects - located in the mapped QTL.

Genetically predicted physical activity levels are associated with lower colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to investigate whether physical activity (PA) causes a reduction of colorectal cancer risk and to understand the contributions of effects mediated through changes in body fat. METHODS: Common genetic variants associated with self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) and sedentary time were used as instrumental variables. To control for confounding effects of obesity, we included instrumental variables for body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist circumference and arm, trunk and leg fat ratios. We analysed the effect of these instrumental variables in a colorectal cancer genome-wide association study comprising 31,197 cases and 61,770 controls of European ancestry by applying two-sample and multivariable MR study designs. RESULTS: We found decreased colorectal cancer risk for genetically represented measures of MVPA and AMPA that were additional to effects mediated through genetic measures of obesity. Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) per standard deviation increase in MVPA and AMPA was 0.56 (0.31, 1.01) and 0.60 (0.41, 0.88), respectively. No association has been found between sedentary time and colorectal cancer risk. The proportion of effect mediated through BMI was 2% (95% CI: 0, 14) and 32% (95% CI: 12, 46) for MVPA and AMPA, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings provide strong evidence to reinforce public health measures on preventing colorectal cancer that promote PA at a population level regardless of body fatness.

The Glasgow Microenvironment Score associates with prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy response in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Glasgow Microenvironment Score (GMS) combines peritumoural inflammation and tumour stroma percentage to assess interactions between tumour and microenvironment. This was previously demonstrated to associate with colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis, and now requires validation and assessment of interactions with adjuvant therapy. METHODS: Two cohorts were utilised; 862 TNM I-III CRC validation cohort, and 2912 TNM II-III CRC adjuvant chemotherapy cohort (TransSCOT). Primary endpoints were disease-free survival (DFS) and relapse-free survival (RFS). Exploratory endpoint was adjuvant chemotherapy interaction. RESULTS: GMS independently associated with DFS (p = 0.001) and RFS (p < 0.001). GMS significantly stratified RFS for both low risk (GMS 0 v GMS 2: HR 3.24 95% CI 1.85-5.68, p < 0.001) and high-risk disease (GMS 0 v GMS 2: HR 2.18 95% CI 1.39-3.41, p = 0.001). In TransSCOT, chemotherapy type (pinteraction = 0.013), but not duration (p = 0.64) was dependent on GMS. Furthermore, GMS 0 significantly associated with improved DFS in patients receiving FOLFOX compared with CAPOX (HR 2.23 95% CI 1.19-4.16, p = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: This study validates the GMS as a prognostic tool for patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer, independent of TNM, with the ability to stratify both low- and high-risk disease. Furthermore, GMS 0 could be employed to identify a subset of patients that benefit from FOLFOX over CAPOX.

Deep learning for prediction of colorectal cancer outcome: a discovery and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Improved markers of prognosis are needed to stratify patients with early-stage colorectal cancer to refine selection of adjuvant therapy. The aim of the present study was to develop a biomarker of patient outcome after primary colorectal cancer resection by directly analysing scanned conventional haematoxylin and eosin stained sections using deep learning. METHODS: More than 12 000 000 image tiles from patients with a distinctly good or poor disease outcome from four cohorts were used to train a total of ten convolutional neural networks, purpose-built for classifying supersized heterogeneous images. A prognostic biomarker integrating the ten networks was determined using patients with a non-distinct outcome. The marker was tested on 920 patients with slides prepared in the UK, and then independently validated according to a predefined protocol in 1122 patients treated with single-agent capecitabine using slides prepared in Norway. All cohorts included only patients with resectable tumours, and a formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumour tissue block available for analysis. The primary outcome was cancer-specific survival. FINDINGS: 828 patients from four cohorts had a distinct outcome and were used as a training cohort to obtain clear ground truth. 1645 patients had a non-distinct outcome and were used for tuning. The biomarker provided a hazard ratio for poor versus good prognosis of 3·84 (95% CI 2·72-5·43; p<0·0001) in the primary analysis of the validation cohort, and 3·04 (2·07-4·47; p<0·0001) after adjusting for established prognostic markers significant in univariable analyses of the same cohort, which were pN stage, pT stage, lymphatic invasion, and venous vascular invasion. INTERPRETATION: A clinically useful prognostic marker was developed using deep learning allied to digital scanning of conventional haematoxylin and eosin stained tumour tissue sections. The assay has been extensively evaluated in large, independent patient populations, correlates with and outperforms established molecular and morphological prognostic markers, and gives consistent results across tumour and nodal stage. The biomarker stratified stage II and III patients into sufficiently distinct prognostic groups that potentially could be used to guide selection of adjuvant treatment by avoiding therapy in very low risk groups and identifying patients who would benefit from more intensive treatment regimes. FUNDING: The Research Council of Norway.

Detecting repeated cancer evolution from multi-region tumor sequencing data.

Recurrent successions of genomic changes, both within and between patients, reflect repeated evolutionary processes that are valuable for the anticipation of cancer progression. Multi-region sequencing allows the temporal order of some genomic changes in a tumor to be inferred, but the robust identification of repeated evolution across patients remains a challenge. We developed a machine-learning method based on transfer learning that allowed us to overcome the stochastic effects of cancer evolution and noise in data and identified hidden evolutionary patterns in cancer cohorts. When applied to multi-region sequencing datasets from lung, breast, renal, and colorectal cancer (768 samples from 178 patients), our method detected repeated evolutionary trajectories in subgroups of patients, which were reproduced in single-sample cohorts (n = 2,935). Our method provides a means of classifying patients on the basis of how their tumor evolved, with implications for the anticipation of disease progression.

The use of Mendelian randomisation to identify causal cancer risk factors: promise and limitations.

The use of observational analyses, such as classical epidemiological studies or randomised controlled trials (RCTs), to infer causality in cancer may be problematic due to both ethical reasons and technical issues, such as confounding variables and reverse causation. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is an epidemiological technique that uses genetic variants as proxies for exposures in an attempt to determine whether there is a causal link between an exposure and an outcome. Given that genetic variants are randomly assigned during meiosis according to Mendel's first and second laws of heritability, MR may be thought of as a 'natural' RCT and is therefore less vulnerable to the aforementioned problems. MR has the potential to help identify new, and validate or disprove previously implicated, modifiable risk factors in cancer, but it is not without limitations. This review provides a brief description of the history and principles of MR, as well as a guide to basic MR methodology. The bulk of the review then examines various limitations of MR in more detail, discussing some of the proposed solutions to these problems. The review ends with a brief section detailing the practical implementation of MR, with examples of its use in the study of cancer, and an assessment of its utility in identifying cancer predisposition traits. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.