Breast cancer survival in the US and Europe: a CONCORD high-resolution study.

Breast cancer survival is reportedly higher in the US than in Europe. The first worldwide study (CONCORD) found wide international differences in age-standardized survival. The aim of this study is to explain these survival differences. Population-based data on stage at diagnosis, diagnostic procedures, treatment and follow-up were collected for about 20,000 women diagnosed with breast cancer aged 15-99 years during 1996-98 in 7 US states and 12 European countries. Age-standardized net survival and the excess hazard of death up to 5 years after diagnosis were estimated by jurisdiction (registry, country, European region), age and stage with flexible parametric models. Breast cancers were generally less advanced in the US than in Europe. Stage also varied less between US states than between European jurisdictions. Early, node-negative tumors were more frequent in the US (39%) than in Europe (32%), while locally advanced tumors were twice as frequent in Europe (8%), and metastatic tumors of similar frequency (5-6%). Net survival in Northern, Western and Southern Europe (81-84%) was similar to that in the US (84%), but lower in Eastern Europe (69%). For the first 3 years after diagnosis the mean excess hazard was higher in Eastern Europe than elsewhere: the difference was most marked for women aged 70-99 years, and mainly confined to women with locally advanced or metastatic tumors. Differences in breast cancer survival between Europe and the US in the late 1990s were mainly explained by lower survival in Eastern Europe, where low healthcare expenditure may have constrained the quality of treatment.

A method for differentiating cancer prevalence according to health status, exemplified using a population-based sample of Italian colorectal cancer cases.

UNLABELLED: Cancer prevalence is the proportion of a population diagnosed with cancer. We present a method for differentiating prevalence into the proportions expected to survive without relapse, die of cancer within a year, and die of cancer within 10 years or survive with relapse at the end of the 10th year. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The method was applied to samples of colorectal cancer cases, randomly extracted from four Italian cancer registries (CRs). The CRs collected data on treatments, local relapses, distant relapses, and causes of death: 1) over the entire follow-up to 31 December 2007 for 601 cases diagnosed in 2002 (cohort approach); 2) over a single year (2007) for five cohorts of cases defined by year of diagnosis (from 1997 to 2001), alive at 1 January 2007 (total 298 cases). The cohorts were combined into a fictitious cohort with 10 years survival experience. For each year j after diagnosis the health status of cases alive at the beginning of j was estimated at the end of the 10th year. From these estimates the 10-year colorectal cancer prevalence was differentiated. RESULTS: We estimated: 74.7% alive without relapse or not undergoing treatment at the end of 10 years; 8.1% had died of colorectal cancer within a year; 11.4% had died of colorectal cancer 1-10 years after diagnosis or had relapsed or were undergoing treatment at the end of the 10th year; and 5.8% had died of other causes. CONCLUSIONS: We have introduced a new method for estimating the healthcare and rehabilitation demands of cancer survivors based on CR data plus treatment and relapse data specifically collected for samples of cases archived by CRs.

Cancer prevalence in Italy: an analysis of geographic variability.

PURPOSE: Statistics on cancer prevalence are scanty. The objectives of this study were to describe the cancer prevalence in Italy and to explore determinants of geographic heterogeneity. METHODS: The study included data from 23 population-based cancer registries, including one-third of the Italian population. Five-year cancer prevalence was observed, and complete prevalence (i.e., all patients living after a cancer diagnosis) was estimated through sex-, age-, cancer site-, and observation period length-specific completeness indices by means of regression models. RESULTS: In 2006, 3.8 % of men and 4.6 % of women in Italy were alive after a cancer diagnosis, with a 5-year prevalence of 1.9 % and 1.7 % in men and women, respectively. A relevant geographic variability emerged for all major cancer sites. When compared to national pooled estimates, crude cancer prevalence proportions were 10 % higher in the north and 30 % lower in the south of Italy. However, these variations were consistently reduced after age adjustment and, in both sexes, largely overlapped those of incidence rates, with correlations >0.90 between variations of prevalence and incidence for all cancer sites and areas. CONCLUSIONS: Magnitude of the cancer prevalence and the geographic heterogeneity herein outlined in Italy will help in meeting the needs of specific population of survivor patients.

[Building of a local deprivation index to measure the health status in the Liguria Region]. / Costruzione di un indice di deprivazione per misurare lo stato di salute in Liguria.

AIMS: During the last twenty years, in the most of the European nations, studies on how measuring socioeconomic differences related to inequities in take in charge of patients, health care and outcomes have been developed. The aim of this paper is the computation of a Liguria Region Deprivation Index (IDR), able to describe the peculiar health characteristics of the Liguria population, economically and socially quite homogeneous, on the basis of the socioeconomic (SE) differences related to health outcomes according to the differences in general mortality. DESIGN: All the population and households variables from the 2001 Italian Census have been considered at municipal level and, for Genoa and Savona, at lower administrative area level, selecting only the ones significantly correlated to the general mortality by Pearson correlation. The Standard Mortality Ratios (SMR on 2001 standard Liguria population) for Overall Mortality by gender and age groups (0-64 years and 65+ years) have been used as dependent variables. In order to build the RDI and classify the areas on the basis of increasing socioeconomic deprivation, a multivariate methodology have been used by means of principal component factor analysis of the previous selected variables and k-means clustering of the geographical areas; then these results have been compared with the SMR by analysis of variance. Finally, the RDI has been applied to the SMR of some groups of principal causes of death (all tumours and cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive system diseases), in order to differentiate the population by health outcomes. RESULTS: Two factors have been identified: an economic-educational factor and a socio-familiar one. The first factor describes the educational level and occupation, while the second one the marital status, the family dimension and the house peculiarities. The clustering procedure has allowed to identify five groups of geographical areas, distributed by the increasing of the SE deprivation. The most problematic areas are located in the countryside or in some spot places of the seaside, far from the health care centres and with difficult access by travel connection. The association between RDI and overall mortality SMRs confirms the relationship between deprivation and mortality increases, according to a statistically significant linear trend. Similar relationships have been observed for cardiovascular and digestive system diseases, while no associations have been found for respiratory illness and overall cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The RDI is able to give information on the health differences in the population, by differentiating the mortality trend on the basis of specific situations of richness and social hardship. It is useful not only for disentangling by economic condition, but also by the resources of the social and familiar support to cope with the illness situations. So, the relationship between deprivation and mortality, according to a statistically significant linear trend, shows how groups of Liguria people suffer by a lack of familiar resources, which strongly reduces the possibility of a quick take in charge and the adhesion to the more adequate therapeutic procedure, till to fatal results. In this way, areas of aimed actions can be defined by the local decision-makers, in order to optimize the health resources allocation and to reduce inequities.

Effects of deprivation and age on staging of breast, colon, rectum and prostate cancer in Umbria region, Italy: a multilevel approach.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of breast, colon, rectum and prostate cancers improves health outcomes. Low socioeconomic status (SES) is related to advanced stages at diagnosis; inequalities could explain differences in outcomes by age. The influence of SES, age and residence area on staging was explored in the Umbrian population. METHODS: 2001-2010 cases were geo-coded by census tract of residence. Stage distribution or Gleason score were analyzed by multilevel multinomial logistic regression with age and SES as the fixed effects and census tract as the random-effect. RESULTS: For breast and colorectal cancers, the screening age class was advantaged. For breast, age effect was modulated by deprivation and census tract. In the elderly, the richest were advantaged, the poorest disadvantaged; issues emerged for the young. For colon, age effect is modulated by census tract in early stages and deprivation in late stages. The elderly were disadvantaged; the young and the deprived had more stages IV. About rectum, age effect was modulated by deprivation in the late stages. The elderly were disadvantaged; the young and the deprived presented more stages IV. For prostate, age effect was modulated by deprivation and census tract. The intermediate age class was advantaged, the elderly disadvantaged. CONCLUSION: Age was not always the determinant of a delayed staging when SES was considered. For breast and colorectal cancers, issues of delayed diagnosis emerged in the young. If the care center was near the residence, the census tract modified the stage at diagnosis. These results are useful to reduce SES barriers by specific programs adapted to the age of the patient and area of residence.

Use of socio-economic factors and healthcare resources to estimate cancer survival in European countries with partial national cancer registration.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cancer is a chronic disease whose clinical history has a strong relationship with socio-economic indicators, and it could be defined as a real "social disease". For this reason, socio-economic factors can be used to project survival rates by means of ecological models. The present study had two main aims: to generalize to all adult patients study of the association between survival and socio-economic and healthcare technologies and related medical resources factors; to provide insights on the possible bias in giving national meaning to survival rates based on pools of regional cancer registries where national coverage is not available. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The EUROCARE 3 Study provided age-standardized survival rates at 5 years from the diagnosis for 10 major cancer sites collected by 52 cancer registries from 21 European countries for the period 1990-1994. For each area and country, socio-economic and health-related variables were collected for the period 1993-1995. Multiple linear regression models were used to compute predicted survival rates in countries totally covered by registration, starting from the correlation between socio-economic and health-related variables and observed survival rates. For those areas not totally covered by cancer registry activity, a correctional parameter coming from the previous linear regression models was computed in order to estimate survival at a national level also in these countries. RESULTS: Predicted survival rates were very close to the observed rates for countries totally covered by cancer registries. The estimates were also good for nations with partial national cancer registration, with less convergence in results for countries where socio-economic differences between the whole territory and the covered area were relevant. CONCLUSIONS: In the light of these findings, evaluation of the role of socio-economic and health-related factors and the estimation of survival is of utmost importance in order to evaluate healthcare outcomes and to support planners in allocating resources in a more effective and egalitarian way.

Deindustrialisation, demographic decline, aging, economic crisis and social involution in a metropolitan area analysed by applying Socio-Economic and Health Deprivation Indices.

AIMS: Genoa is a city hit by a strong economic, demographic and social involution. The changes in the demographic and socio-economic (SE) situation were analysed and the capacity of two Socio-Economic and Health Deprivation Indices (SEHDI) in describing the evolutions of the recent period were verified. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data about the evolution of demographic and SE situation in Genoa came from publications of Statistics Offices of Genoa Municipality and Liguria Region and from published analyses of Bank of Italy. The two SEHDIs, referring to 2001 and 2011 population, were computed at census tract level by linear regression, factor and clusters analyses and had been already validated and published. RESULTS: Wide transformations in aging and population composition by age groups and gender occurred in Genoa between 1951 and 2016. Internal (from other Italian regions) and external (from other countries) migrations concurred to change the profile of Genoese population. These changes followed the industrial history of city and its deindustrialization occurred since 2001. A progressive SE involution, worsened by the Italian and international crises, carried out the recent impoverishment of the city. Between 2001 and 2011 the population at medium-high deprivation increased and the SEHDIs 2001 and 2011 contributed to describe the population distribution by deprivation groups, either geographically, and by groups of citizenships (Italians and Foreigners). The first identified in 2001 some aspects of a well-off society regarding education, labour market and characteristics of the family and housing structure. The second depicted in 2011 an impoverished society in aging, lack of family support and of property of the main house, diminishing of educational level. DISCUSSION: Genoa city demonstrated an its own specific decline. Starting from the deindustrialization, a worsening of welfare, independently from the national and international economic troubles, was evident. The aging and the changed equilibria among age groups testified the growing difficulties of society in keeping up with the deep social and economic changes. The results demonstrated that specific deprivation indices aid to better define the populations under analysis, because they identify the subpopulations that could have the maximum benefit from investments of resources targeted to the correction of inequalities.

Application of Socio-Economic and Health Deprivation Indices to study the relationships between socio-economic status and disease onset and outcome in a metropolitan area subjected to aging, demographic fall and socio-economic crisis.

AIMS: Genoa is a city affected by a deep economic, demographic and social involution. The association between disease onset and outcome and socioeconomic status (SES) was assessed in the mortality by cause in two periods, using indices referred to the distribution of deprivation in the population defined in a ten-years span (2001 to 2011). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two Socio-Economic and Health Deprivation Indices (SEHDIs), computed at census tract level (2001 and 2011 Censuses), were applied to analyse the SMRs by cause, age (0-64 and 65+ years) and gender of the five normalised groups of deprivation individuated in the two population distribution. The associations between SES and onset of disease was described in the mortality 2008-11 using the index referred to 2001 population. The second index, referred to 2011 population, described the associations between SES and disease outcomes in the mortality 2009-13. Two ANOVAs evaluated the statistical significance (p < 0.05) of differences in death distribution among groups. RESULTS: The population at medium-high deprivation increased in Genoa between 2001 and 2011. The mortality by age and gender showed different trends. Not significant trends (NS) in both periods regarded only the younger (respiratory diseases in both sexes, prostate cancer, diabetes in women). Linearly positives (L↑) trends in both periods were observed only in men (all cancers and lung cancers, overall mortality and cardiovascular diseases in younger, diabetes in older). Not linear trends (NL) in both periods interested both sexes for flu and pneumonia, women for lung cancer, old women for overall mortality and respiratory diseases, old men for colorectal cancers. Instead, L↑ trends in the final phases of disease interest all cancers in the elderly (NS trend at the disease onset), all cancers and breast cancer in young women, diabetes and colorectal cancers in young men (NL trends at the disease onset). On the contrary, L↑ trends at the disease onset and NL trends in the final phases regarded cardiovascular diseases in elderly, overall mortality, respiratory diseases and prostate cancer in old men, diabetes and colorectal cancers in old women. Finally, NL trends at the disease onset regarded colorectal cancers in young women (NS trend in the final phases) and breast cancer in the older (linearly negative trend, L↓, in the final phases). DISCUSSION: Deprivation trends confirmed the literature about populations shifting towards poverty. Aging-linked social risks were revealed, reflecting the weakening of social-health care, which worsened in elderly if alone. Serious problems in younger singles or in the single-parent families arose. Cardiovascular diseases, all cancers and colorectal cancers trends confirmed the advantage of less deprived when diseases are preventable and curable. Prostate and breast cancers trends reflected the rising incidence and increasing problems in care. The need of corrective interventions in social and health policies was emerging, aimed to support in a targeted way a population in an alarming condition of socio-economic deterioration.

Cancer incidence in people with AIDS in Italy.

People with HIV/AIDS (PWHA) have increased risk of some cancers. The introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) has improved their life expectancy, exposing them to the combined consequences of aging and of a prolonged exposure to cancer risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence rates (IR) in PWHA in Italy, before and after the introduction of HAART, after adjusting for sex and age through direct standardization. An anonymous record linkage between Italian AIDS Registry (21,951 cases) and Cancer Registries (17.3 million, 30% of Italian population) was performed. In PWHA, crude IR, sex- and age-standardized IR and age-specific IR were estimated. The standardized IR for Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma greatly declined in the HAART period. Although the crude IR for all non-AIDS-defining cancers increased in the HAART period, standardized IR did not significantly differ in the 2 periods (352 and 379/100,000, respectively). Increases were seen only for cancer of the liver (IR ratio = 4.6, 95% CI: 1.3-17.0) and lung (IR ratio = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0-3.2). Age-specific IRs for liver and lung cancers, however, largely overlapped in the 2 periods pointing to the strong influence of the shift in the age distribution of PWHA on the observed upward trends. In conclusion, standardized IRs for non-AIDS-defining cancers have not risen in the HAART period, even if crude IRs of these cancers increased. This scenario calls, however, for the intensification of cancer-prevention strategies, notably smoking cessation and screening programs, in middle-aged HIV-patients.

Patterns of care for European colorectal cancer patients diagnosed 1996-1998: a EUROCARE high resolution study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify disparities in the management of colon and rectal cancer across Europe by assessing population-based information from 12 European cancer registries (CR) participating in EUROCARE, together with additional information obtained from individual clinical records. METHODS AND PATIENTS: We considered five indicators: (a) resection with curative intent; (b) post-operative mortality; (c) proportion of stage II/III colon cancer cases given adjuvant chemotherapy; (d) proportion of rectal cancer cases receiving radiotherapy; and (e) proportion of curative intent resections with 12 or more lymph nodes examined. RESULTS: A total of 6 871 colorectal cancer patients, diagnosed between 1996-1998, were examined. Overall 71% of patients received resection with curative intent, range 44-86% by CR; 46% of stage III colon cancer cases (range 24-73% by CR) and 22% of stage II cases (not then recommended) received adjuvant chemotherapy; 12% of rectal cancer cases received adjuvant radiotherapy, range < or =2% in five CRs to >51% in two CRs. For only 29% of curative intent resections were 12 or more lymph nodes examined. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that, although most patients received surgery with curative intent, disparities in treatment for colorectal cancer across Europe in the late 1990s were unexpectedly large, with many patients not receiving treatments indicated by published clinical trials. Consensus guidelines for CRC management are now becoming available and should be adopted across Europe. It is hoped that dissemination of guidelines will improve the use of scientifically proven treatments for the disease, but this should be monitored by further population-based studies.

A method to estimate mortality trends when death certificates are imprecisely coded: an application to cervical cancer in Italy.

Systematic analysis of mortality trends of cervix and corpus uteri cancers is difficult in Italy, as in many other countries, because of the poor specification of uterine cancer subsites in official death statistics. The aim of this article is to propose a method for the analysis of uterine cancers mortality based on high quality incidence and prevalence data from population-based cancer registries. The method assumes that the excess mortality of cancer patients, compared to death rates expected in the general population, is attributable to the specific cancer. The method is applied to estimate mortality trends for cancers of cervix, corpus and uterus as whole, during the period 1987-1999, in an area covered by 8 Italian cancer registries. Official mortality rates for the 2 subsites were about 60% lower than excess mortality rates, due to the very high proportion of deaths attributed to not specified subsite. Age adjusted cervical cancer excess mortality rates decreased from 3.7 to 2.7 x 100,000 women. Excess mortality for corpus uteri cancer remained approximately stable between 3 and 3.3 x 100,000 women in the period 1990-1999. The results support the efficacy of organized screening in reducing cervical cancer mortality. The same method can be used to assess mortality rates for every cancer entity identifiable in cancer registries data, not otherwise available from official death records.

Prostate cancer treatment in Europe at the end of 1990s.

BACKGROUND: There is wide variation in prostate cancer incidence and survival across Europe. In many countries incidence is rising sharply in relation to the introduction of prostate-specific antigen assay, and there is concern that patients may not be treated appropriately. We therefore aimed to characterize treatment for prostate cancer across Europe. METHODS: We performed a high resolution population-based study, collecting information on the treatment of 3 486 prostate cancer cases diagnosed in 1995-1999 in 11 cancer registries from six European countries. RESULTS: Overall, about one in three patients received radical treatment (prostatectomy 23% or radiotherapy 14%); about 60% of younger patients (<70 years) received radical treatment, while a similar proportion of older patients (> or =70 years) received palliation (transurethral prostatectomy or hormone treatment only). A considerable proportion (61%) of patients with apparently high-risk disease were treated radically within a year of diagnosis, with large variation between regions: >70% in Calvados, Haut-Rhin, Tarn and Eindhoven and <50% in Slovakia and Cracow. Overall 34% of patients with apparently low-risk disease received radical treatment, varying from 17% and 22% in Bas-Rhin and Granada, to 52% and 56% in Calvados and Eindhoven. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate wide variation in the treatment for prostate cancer even among patients with apparently similar disease, and further suggest a non-negligible proportion may be receiving inappropriate radical treatment for apparently low-risk disease. Current guidelines indicate active surveillance should become the main means of managing low-risk disease.

Strong seasonality in the diagnosis of skin melanoma in Italy: the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) study.

AIM: To evaluate seasonality in the diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma in Italy. METHODS: A total of 16,284 invasive (and 1,235 in situ) cutaneous melanomas incident from 1978 to 2002 in 14 cancer registries belonging to the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) was analyzed. We used the Walter and Elwood test to evaluate seasonality. The monthly distribution of diagnosis was evaluated for sex, skin site, melanoma morphology and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: The overall monthly diagnosis of invasive melanoma showed a statistically significant excess around the month of June. The same pattern was present for males and females, across age-groups and periods of time. All skin sites showed a cycling trend, melanoma of the head and neck peaked around April, all the others peaked around June. As regards morphologic types, a cyclic trend was evident for superficial-spreading melanomas (peak around July), for not-specified melanomas (June) and for other histotypes (June). Diagnosis of in situ melanoma peaked in September. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed that also in Italy melanoma diagnosis has a seasonal trend, with the peak in early summer. It seemed that summer UV exposure, acting both as a late promoter of malignant melanoma development and also increasing the visibility of pigmented skin lesion, may be relevant to explain such a peak.

Effect of obesity and other lifestyle factors on mortality in women with breast cancer.

A few lifestyle characteristics before cancer diagnosis have been suggested to modify the prognosis of breast cancer. Follow-up information from 1,453 women with incident invasive breast cancer, diagnosed between 1991 and 1994 and interviewed within the framework of an Italian multicenter case-control study, was used to assess the effect of obesity and of a large spectrum of other factors on breast cancer mortality. Five hundred and three deaths, including 398 breast cancer deaths, were identified. Hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and breast cancer mortality and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and adjusted for age and breast cancer characteristics (stage and receptor status). Increased risk of death for breast cancer emerged for body mass index (BMI) >/= 30 kg/m(2) (HR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.02-1.86), compared to <25, or waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) >/= 0.85 (HR = 1.27; 95% CI: 0.98-1.64), compared to <0.80, and the strongest association was observed for women with BMI >/=30 and high WHR (>/=0.85), compared to women with BMI <25 and WHR < 0.85 (HR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.08-2.27). The unfavorable effect of high BMI was similar in women <55 and >/=55 years of age, whereas it was stronger in women with I-II stage than III-IV stage breast cancer. Low vegetable and fruit consumption and current or past smoking were also associated to marginally worse breast cancer survival. No significant relationship with survival after breast cancer emerged for several other major lifestyle factors, including physical activity, alcohol drinking, exogenous hormones use and fat intake. High BMI was the lifestyle risk factor that most consistently modified breast cancer prognosis in our study.

Incidence of primary liver cancer in Italy between 1988 and 2002: an age-period-cohort analysis.

We conducted in Italy a study to evaluate trends of primary liver cancer (PLC) and to disentangle the period from birth-cohort effects on PLC incidence. Cases aged<80 years and diagnosed between 1988 and 2002 in 20 areas covered by population-based Cancer Registries were included. Age-standardised incidence rates and age-period-cohort effects were estimated. In 1998-2002, incidence rates of PLC were 21.1/100,000 men and 6.0/100,000 women. In both genders, incidence rates increased slightly between 1988-1992 and 1993-1997 but did not rise thereafter. Amongst men, PLC risk increased in every cohort born after 1913 and the rise became steeper for cohorts born in 1948. In women, an upward trend appeared only in the cohorts born after 1953. Incidence of PLC over the last two decades in Italy did not substantially change but huge geographical variability emerged, mainly due to different times and modalities of spread of hepatitis C virus.

The risk of developing a second, different, cancer among 14 560 survivors of malignant cutaneous melanoma: a study by AIRTUM (the Italian Network of Cancer Registries).

The aim of this study was to provide further quantitative data on the risk of second nonmelanoma cancers in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). A cohort of 14 560 population-based patients from the Italian Network of Cancer Registries incident during 1985-2002 were included and followed up for further incident cases and vital status. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were used to compare the number of observed second cancers with expected cancers. In a total of 69 581 person-years, 1020 second cancers were registered, of which 804.6 were expected (SIR=1.27; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.35). The risk was similar for males and females, (SIR=1.27 and 1.26, respectively). The risk was slightly higher among younger (<60 years; SIR=1.44) than older (60+ years; SIR=1.19) patients. The overall risk in the period after CMM diagnosis did not change significantly (SIR=1.34 during the first 5 years and 1.12 afterwards). No differences in the overall risk were evident in different years of diagnosis, for different melanoma morphology types or for different geographical areas within Italy. Statistically significantly increased risks were found for nonmelanoma skin cancers [observed number (n)=362, SIR=3.12], for bone (n=5, SIR=6.08) and for kidney cancers (n=39, SIR=1.95) and lower than expected risks were found for liver (SIR=0.46) and lung cancers (SIR=0.71). We confirm that CMM patients are at high risk for nonmelanoma skin cancers. The reasons for the increased risk of kidney and bone cancers are not yet clear.

Survival of atherosclerotic patients as related to oxidative stress and gene polymorphisms.

A prospective molecular epidemiology study was implemented in a cohort of 98 subjects suffering from severe atherosclerotic lesions requiring removal of an abdominal aorta fragment. We previously published the results relative to detection, in the aorta medium layer, of bulky DNA adducts and fluorescent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-related DNA adducts, oxidative DNA damage, and mitochondrial DNA 4977 common deletion, as well as GSTM1 and GSTT1 gene polymorphisms. We report herein new data, relative to oxidative stress biomarkers, including oxidative DNA damage in both inner and medium aorta layers, malondialdehyde in the medium layer, homocysteine and reduced glutathione in plasma, and those relative to additional gene polymorphisms, including NAT1, NAT2, OGG1, MTHFR, Leiden factor V, and prothrombin. The results of biochemical and molecular analyses were related to survival of the patients, whose average age was 70 at the start of the follow up. During the following 14 years, 71.4% of them died. The results obtained provide evidence for the crucial impact of oxidative stress and certain gene polymorphisms on clinical and biochemical patterns as well as on survival of patients. Survival was significantly affected not only by traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis but also by molecular end-points and adverse gene polymorphisms, and by their combinations.

Estimated and observed cancer incidence in Italy: a validation study.

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: The study aimed to validate model-based incidence estimates by means of observed incidence rates provided by Italian cancer registries, for five major cancer sites (stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate cancers) and for all cancers together. METHODS: Recent incidence rates observed by Italian population-based cancer registries were extracted from the data base of the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. Regional estimates of incidence rates for the same cancers were obtained by the MIAMOD method. Observed and estimated crude incidence rates and incidence trends were compared for the period of diagnosis 1985-2000. Eight Italian cancer registries and seven regions were selected for the analysis since they had incidence data available during the entire selected period. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: An excellent agreement between estimated and observed crude incidence rates was found for all single cancer sites, regarding absolute incidence levels and time trends. A partial exception was breast, where empirical data showed a sudden increase in the last three years of observation, perhaps due to organized screenings in some Italian regions, and not captured by statistical models. Substantial underestimation of model-based incidence rates was found for all cancers combined, where the difference tended to increase with calendar year, up to a maximum of 20% in recent years. The greatest part of the discrepancy can be attributed to multiple cancers, which were included in cancer registries statistics but were not accounted for in MIAMOD estimates.

Cancer survival in the elderly: effects of socio-economic factors and health care system features (ELDCARE project).

The purpose of the ELDCARE project is to study differences in cancer survival for elderly patients by country, taking into account the socio-economic conditions and the characteristics of health care systems at the ecological level. Fifty-three European cancer registries, from 19 countries, participating in the EUROCARE 3 programme, collected information to compute relative survival on patients aged 65-84 years, diagnosed over the period 1990-1994. National statistics offices provided the macro-economic and labour force indicators (gross domestic product, total health expenditure, and proportion of people employed in the agriculture sector) as well as the features of national health care systems. Survival for several of the cancer sites had high positive Pearson's correlations (r) with the affluence indicators (usually r>0.7), but survival for the poor prognosis cancers (lung, ovary, stomach) and for cervix uteri was not so well correlated. Among the medical resources considered, the number of computed tomography scanners was the variable most related to survival in the elderly; the number of total health practitioners in the country did not show any relationship. Survival was related to the marital status of elderly women more strongly than for men and younger people. The highest correlations of survival with the percentage of married elderly women in the population were for cancers of the rectum (r=0.79) and breast (r=0.66), while survival correlated negatively with the proportion of widows for most cancers. Being married or widowed is for elderly people, in particular elderly women, an important factor influencing psychological status, life habits and social relationships. Social conditions could play a major role in determining health outcomes, particularly in the elderly, by affecting access to health care and delay in diagnosis.

The epidemiological revolution of the 20th century.

Until 100 years ago the epidemiological scenario of human diseases had substantially remained unchanged. The 20th century has been characterized by a fantastic advance in life expectancy and by a shift from infectious to chronic degenerative diseases as prevailing causes of death. As an example of the epidemiological revolution in a developed country, we reconstructed, year by year from 1901 to 2000, the situation in Italy. Reference to the situation in other countries is also made. Both crude and age-adjusted mortality data were made available for males and females. A new turning point became evident in the second half of the 20th century with the decline of mortality for cardiovascular diseases and, more recently, for tumors. This review discusses the roots and rationale for these epidemiological changes. The discoveries made in the area of biomedical sciences, the progress in preventive and curative medicine, and the improvement of hygienic conditions have been so spectacular that 1 million lives are saved every year in Italy as compared with the late 19th century.