Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration.

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.

Consistent measures of oxidative balance predict survival but not reproduction in a long-distance migrant.

Physiological processes, including those that disrupt oxidative balance, have been proposed as key to understanding fundamental life-history trade-offs. Yet, examination of changes in oxidative balance within wild animals across time, space and major life-history challenges remains uncommon. For example, migration presents substantial physiological challenges for individuals, and data on migratory individuals would provide crucial context for exposing the importance of relationships between oxidative balance and fitness outcomes. Here we examined the consistency of commonly used measures of oxidative balance in longitudinally sampled free-living individuals of a long-lived, long-distance migrant, the Brent goose Branta bernicla hrota over periods of months to years. Although inter-individual and temporal variation in measures of oxidative balance were substantial, we found high consistency in measures of lipid peroxidation and circulating non-enzymatic antioxidants in longitudinally sampled individuals. This suggests the potential for the existence of individual oxidative phenotypes. Given intra-individual consistency, we then examined how these physiological measures relate to survival and reproductive success across all sampled individuals. Surprisingly, lower survival was predicted for individuals with lower levels of damage, with no measured physiological metric associated with reproductive success. Our results demonstrate that snapshot measurements of a consistent measure of oxidative balance can inform our understanding of differences in a key demographic trait. However, the positive relationship between oxidative damage and survival emphasises the need to investigate the relationships between the oxidative system and fitness outcomes in other species undergoing similar physiologically challenging life cycles. This would highlight the extent to which variation in such traits and resource allocation trade-offs is a result of adaptation to different life-history strategies.

Measures of oxidative state are primarily driven by extrinsic factors in a long-distance migrant.

Oxidative stress is a likely consequence of hard physical exertion and thus a potential mediator of life-history trade-offs in migratory animals. However, little is known about the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic stressors on the oxidative state of individuals in wild populations. We quantified the relationships between air temperature, sex, body condition and three markers of oxidative state (malondialdehyde, superoxide dismutase and total antioxidant capacity) across hundreds of individuals of a long-distance migrant (the brent goose Branta bernicla hrota) during wintering and spring staging. We found that air temperature and migratory stage were the strongest predictors of oxidative state. This emphasizes the importance of extrinsic factors in regulating the oxidative state of migrating birds, with differential effects across the migration. The significance of abiotic effects demonstrates an additional mechanism by which changing climates may affect migratory costs.

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics.

Northern Gannet foraging trip length increases with colony size and decreases with latitude.

Density-dependent competition for food influences the foraging behaviour and demography of colonial animals, but how this influence varies across a species' latitudinal range is poorly understood. Here we used satellite tracking from 21 Northern Gannet Morus bassanus colonies (39% of colonies worldwide, supporting 73% of the global population) during chick-rearing to test how foraging trip characteristics (distance and duration) covary with colony size (138-60 953 breeding pairs) and latitude across 89% of their latitudinal range (46.81-71.23° N). Tracking data for 1118 individuals showed that foraging trip duration and maximum distance both increased with square-root colony size. Foraging effort also varied between years for the same colony, consistent with a link to environmental variability. Trip duration and maximum distance also decreased with latitude, after controlling for colony size. Our results are consistent with density-dependent reduction in prey availability influencing colony size and reveal reduced competition at the poleward range margin. This provides a mechanism for rapid population growth at northern colonies and, therefore, a poleward shift in response to environmental change. Further work is required to understand when and how colonial animals deplete nearby prey, along with the positive and negative effects of social foraging behaviour.

Hybridization of glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) and herring gull (Larus argentatus) in Iceland: mitochondrial and microsatellite data.

Large white-headed gulls provide an interesting group of birds for studies of hybridization. The group is composed of 20 species of recent origin, often with weak reproductive barriers. Here we report the results from a study on the glaucous gull Larus hyperboreus, an Arctic species which has been breeding in Iceland for centuries, and the herring gull Larus argentatus which has a wide distribution in Europe but colonized Iceland in 1920s. Previous studies, based on morphological variation indicated hybridization between the two species in Iceland, have been questioned as it may just reflect variation within the species. Here we evaluate whether hybridization has occurred between the two species in Iceland by studying variation in microsatellites and mtDNA. The analysis is based on feathers taken from wings sampled in Iceland over a period of 40 years. The results are compared with samples obtained from East Greenland and published sequences of samples obtained throughout Europe. The genetic analysis reveals a distinctive grouping of the two species, although they present a shallow genealogy and an extensive sharing of the genetic variants between the two species. Several individuals show admixture for molecular markers, which may result from an incomplete lineage sorting although geographical patterns of both mtDNA haplotypes and microsatellites strongly indicate a recent hybridization in Iceland.