Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Exploring algorithms to select candidates for non-selective beta-blockers in cirrhosis: a post-hoc analysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-invasive tests (NITs) can accurately select patients with cirrhosis requiring non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and prevention of decompensation is unclear. Our aim was to test the performance of NIT-based algorithms for CSPH diagnosis using the prospective PREDESCI cohort. We investigated a new algorithm combining NITs with endoscopy to improve performance. METHODS: We included patients with compensated cirrhosis and available liver elastography who were screened during the trial. The performance of models based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet count was evaluated. An algorithm considering endoscopy for patients with inconclusive results (the "grey zone") was then developed and validated in an independent cohort of 195 patients in whom also spleen stiffness was available. RESULTS: We included 170 patients from the PREDESCI cohort. An LSM≥25 kPa alone (Baveno VII criteria) or an LSM>20 kPa plus thrombocytopenia (AASLD criteria) ruled-in CSPH with positive predictive value of 88 and 89%, respectively. However, 37%-47% patients fell into the grey zone while at high-risk of decompensation or death. Performing endoscopy in inconclusive cases identified patients with varices that, when re-classified as high-risk for CSPH, significantly reduced the grey zone to 22%. In this algorithm, 86% of CSPH patients were correctly classified as high-risk. The diagnostic performance was confirmed in the external validation cohort, where combining Baveno VII criteria with spleen stiffness showed similar accuracy to the model using endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Algorithms based only on LSM and platelet count are suboptimal to identify NSBB treatment candidates. Performing endoscopy in patients with indeterminate findings from NITs improved diagnostic performance and risk stratification. Endoscopy may be substituted by spleen stiffness for stratifying the risk in the grey zone. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The PREDESCI trial demonstrated that non-selective beta-blockers prevent decompensation in CSPH patients. Still it is unclear whether we can select treatment candidates using non-invasive tests to assess the presence of CSPH without measuring HVPG. In the prospective cohort of patients screened during the trial, we showed that algorithms based on liver stiffness and platelet count had suboptimal performance, mainly due to a high rate of indeterminate results. Performing endoscopy in the grey zone patients allowed to significantly increase the number of patients with CSPH and improved the risk stratification for decompensation or death on long-term follow-up. These findings were validated in an independent cohort. In addition, a model using spleen stiffness instead of endoscopy showed similar diagnostic performance in the external validation cohort, suggesting that adequate risk stratification to select treatment candidates can be achieved with a fully non-invasive algorithm.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Hepatic venous pressure gradient predicts risk of hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality in patients with MASLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a leading cause of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Portal hypertension drives hepatic decompensation and is best diagnosed by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of HVPG in MASLD-related compensated ACLD (MASLD-cACLD). METHODS: This European multicentre study included patients with MASLD-cACLD characterised by HVPG at baseline. Hepatic decompensation (variceal bleeding/ascites/hepatic encephalopathy) and liver-related mortality were considered the primary events of interest. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients with MASLD-cACLD (56.2% male; median age 62 [55-68] years, median MELD 8 [7-9], 71.2% with diabetes) were included. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) was found in 209 patients (61.5%). During a median follow-up of 41.5 (27.5-65.8) months, 65 patients developed hepatic decompensation with a cumulative incidence of 10.0% after 2 years (2Y) and 30.7% after 5 years (5Y) in those with MASLD-cACLD with CSPH, compared to 2.4% after 2Y and 9.4% after 5Y in patients without CSPH. Variceal bleeding did not occur without CSPH. CSPH (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 5.13; p <0.001) was associated with an increased decompensation risk and a higher HVPG remained an independent risk factor in the multivariable model (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.12, p <0.001). Liver-related mortality occurred in 37 patients at a cumulative incidence of 3.3% after 2Y and 21.4% after 5Y in CSPH. Without CSPH, the incidence after 5Y was 0.8%. Accordingly, a higher HVPG was also independently associated with a higher risk of liver-related death (adjusted SHR per mmHg: 1.20, p <0.001). CONCLUSION: HVPG measurement is of high prognostic value in MASLD-cACLD. In patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH, the short-term risk of decompensation is very low and liver-related mortality is rare, while the presence of CSPH substantially increases the risk of both. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: While the incidence of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing worldwide, insights into the impact of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) on the risk of liver-related events in MASLD-cACLD remain limited. Based on the findings of this European multicentre study including 340 MASLD-cACLD patients, we could show that increasing HVPG values and the presence of CSPH in particular were associated with a significantly higher risk of first hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality. In contrast, the short-term incidence of decompensation in patients with MASLD-cACLD without CSPH was low and the risk of liver-mortality remained negligible. Thus, HVPG measurements can provide important prognostic information for individualised risk stratification in MASLD-cACLD and may help facilitate the study of novel and promising treatment possibilities for MASLD.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Metabolomics as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation or liver-related death in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: HVPG > 10 mm Hg) have a high risk of decompensation. HVPG is, however, an invasive procedure not available in all centers. The present study aims to assess whether metabolomics can improve the capacity of clinical models in predicting clinical outcomes in these compensated patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This is a nested study from the PREDESCI cohort (an RCT of nonselective beta-blockers vs. placebo in 201 patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH), including 167 patients for whom a blood sample was collected. A targeted metabolomic serum analysis, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, was performed. Metabolites underwent univariate time-to-event cox regression analysis. Top-ranked metabolites were selected using Log-Rank p -value to generate a stepwise cox model. Comparison between models was done using DeLong test. Eighty-two patients with CSPH were randomized to nonselective beta-blockers and 85 to placebo. Thirty-three patients developed the main endpoint (decompensation/liver-related death). The model, including HVPG, Child-Pugh, and treatment received ( HVPG/Clinical model ), had a C-index of 0.748 (CI95% 0.664-0.827). The addition of 2 metabolites, ceramide (d18:1/22:0) and methionine (HVPG/Clinical/Metabolite model), significantly improved the model's performance [C-index of 0.808 (CI95% 0.735-0.882); p =0.032]. The combination of these 2 metabolites together with Child-Pugh and the type of treatment received (Clinical/Metabolite model) had a C-index of 0.785 (CI95% 0.710-0.860), not significantly different from the HVPG-based models including or not metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, metabolomics improves the capacity of clinical models and achieves similar predictive capacity than models including HVPG.

Influence of further decompensation on survival across clinical stages of decompensated cirrhosis: The role of portal hypertension and HVPG changes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Decompensated-cirrhosis encompasses several stages with different prognosis, such as bleeding, ascites and bleeding-plus-ascites. Development of further-decompensation worsens survival, while non-selective ß-blockers (NSBBs) can modify the risk. However, how this applies to each stage is uncertain. We aimed to investigate, in each stage of decompensated-cirrhosis, the influence of further-decompensation on mortality and whether changes in portal-pressure (HVPG) under NSBBs influence these outcomes. METHODS: Patients with variceal bleeding were consecutively included differentiating those with bleeding-alone from those who also had ascites. Patients with ascites and high-risk varices referred for primary-prophylaxis were also investigated. A baseline haemodynamic study was performed and was repeated after 1-3-months under NSBBs. Outcomes were investigated by competing-risk. RESULTS: Totally 103 patients had bleeding-alone, 186 bleeding-plus-ascites and 187 ascites-alone. Mean follow-up was 32-months (IQR, 12-60). Patients with bleeding-plus-ascites had higher HVPG and were more hyperdynamic than patients with ascites-alone and these than those with bleeding-alone. At each stage, the mortality risk was more than twice in patients developing further-decompensation vs. those without (p < .001). In each stage, HVPG-decrease under NSBBs showed better discrimination to predict further-decompensation than the baseline MELD, Child-Pugh or HVPG, by time-dependent ROC-curves (c-statistic >70%). At each stage, patients without HVPG-decreases, either ≥10% or ≥20% from the baseline, had higher risk of further-decompensation (sHR from 2.43 to 6.73, p < .01) and worse survival. CONCLUSIONS: In each stage of decompensated cirrhosis, mortality risk significantly and very markedly increase with further-decompensation. HVPG-non-response to NSBBs may adequately stratify the risk of further decompensation and death, in each stage. This suggests potential benefit with pre-emptive therapies in HVPG-non-responders at each-stage.

Immune Response and Risk of Decompensation following SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Outpatients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) is associated with a wide spectrum of immune dysfunction. The clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the development of decompensation and immune response in unvaccinated outpatients has not as yet been clearly defined. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical and immunological impact of SARS-CoV-2 on outpatients with ACLD. This is an observational case-control study, in which ACLD outpatients were included prospectively and consecutively and classified into two groups: SARS-CoV-2 infected and non-infected. Patients' baseline characteristics and infection data were collected and analyzed. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels against Spike 1 were evaluated. The primary endpoint was risk of liver decompensation during follow-up, assessed after propensity score matching and adjusted by Cox regression. Between October 2020 and July 2021, ACLD outpatients (n = 580) were identified, and 174 patients with clinical follow-up were included. SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence was 7.6% (n = 44). Risk of liver decompensation was significantly higher after infection (HR = 2.43 [1.01-5.86], p = 0.048) vs. non-infection. The time of IgG evaluation was similar in all patients (n = 74); IgG concentrations were significantly higher in compensated vs. decompensated patients (1.02 ± 0.35 pg/mL vs. 0.34 ± 0.16 pg/mL, p < 0.0001) and correlated with hemoglobin levels. The dysregulation of the innate immune response in patients with decompensated liver disease increased the risk of further decompensation following SARS-CoV-2, mainly due to a worsening of ascites.

Hepatic encephalopathy is not a contraindication to pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: A pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (pTIPS) reduces mortality in high-risk patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh C/B+active bleeding) with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Real-life studies point out that <15% of patients eligible for pTIPS ultimately undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) due to concerns about hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The outcome of patients undergoing pTIPS with HE is unknown. We aimed to (1) assess the prevalence of HE in patients with AVB; (2) evaluate the outcome of patients presenting HE at admission after pTIPS; and (3) determine if HE at admission is a risk factor for death and post-TIPS HE. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is an observational study including 2138 patients from 34 centres between October 2011 and May 2015. Placement of pTIPS was based on individual centre policy. Patients were followed up to 1 year, death or liver transplantation. RESULTS: 671 of 2138 patients were considered at high risk, 66 received pTIPS and 605 endoscopic+drug treatment. At admission, HE was significantly more frequent in high-risk than in low-risk patients (39.2% vs 10.6%, p<0.001). In high-risk patients with HE at admission, pTIPS was associated with a lower 1-year mortality than endoscopic+drug (HR 0.374, 95% CI 0.166 to 0.845, p=0.0181). The incidence of HE was not different between patients treated with pTIPS and endoscopic+drug (38.2% vs 38.7%, p=0.9721), even in patients with HE at admission (56.4% vs 58.7%, p=0.4594). Age >56, shock, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >15, endoscopic+drug treatment and HE at admission were independent factors of death in high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: pTIPS is associated with better survival than endoscopic treatment in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding displaying HE at admission.

Assessment of portal hypertension severity using machine learning models in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In individuals with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the severity of portal hypertension (PH) determines the risk of decompensation. Invasive measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the diagnostic gold standard for PH. We evaluated the utility of machine learning models (MLMs) based on standard laboratory parameters to predict the severity of PH in individuals with cACLD. METHODS: A detailed laboratory workup of individuals with cACLD recruited from the Vienna cohort (NCT03267615) was utilised to predict clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, i.e., HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and severe PH (i.e., HVPG ≥16 mmHg). The MLMs were then evaluated in individual external datasets and optimised in the merged cohort. RESULTS: Among 1,232 participants with cACLD, the prevalence of CSPH/severe PH was similar in the Vienna (n = 163, 67.4%/35.0%) and validation (n = 1,069, 70.3%/34.7%) cohorts. The MLMs were based on 3 (3P: platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (5P: +cholinesterase, +gamma-glutamyl transferase, +activated partial thromboplastin time replacing international normalised ratio) laboratory parameters. The MLMs performed robustly in the Vienna cohort. 5P-MLM had the best AUCs for CSPH (0.813) and severe PH (0.887) and compared favourably to liver stiffness measurement (AUC: 0.808). Their performance in external validation datasets was heterogeneous (AUCs: 0.589-0.887). Training on the merged cohort optimised model performance for CSPH (AUCs for 3P and 5P: 0.775 and 0.789, respectively) and severe PH (0.737 and 0.828, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Internally trained MLMs reliably predicted PH severity in the Vienna cACLD cohort but exhibited heterogeneous results on external validation. The proposed 3P/5P online tool can reliably identify individuals with CSPH or severe PH, who are thus at risk of hepatic decompensation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We used machine learning models based on widely available laboratory parameters to develop a non-invasive model to predict the severity of portal hypertension in individuals with compensated cirrhosis, who currently require invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient. We validated our findings in a large multicentre cohort of individuals with advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) of any cause. Finally, we provide a readily available online calculator, based on 3 (platelet count, bilirubin, international normalised ratio) or 5 (platelet count, bilirubin, activated partial thromboplastin time, gamma-glutamyltransferase, choline-esterase) widely available laboratory parameters, that clinicians can use to predict the likelihood of their patients with cACLD having clinically significant or severe portal hypertension.

Alcohol-related liver disease phenotype impacts survival after an acute variceal bleeding episode.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol-related hepatitis (AH) encompasses a high mortality. AH might be a concomitant event in patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). The current study aimed to assess the prevalence of AH in patients with AVB and to compare the clinical outcomes of AH patients to other alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) phenotypes and viral cirrhosis. METHODS: Multicentre, observational study including 916 patients with AVB falling under the next categories: AH (n = 99), ALD cirrhosis actively drinking (d-ALD) (n = 285), ALD cirrhosis abstinent from alcohol (a-ALD) (n = 227) and viral cirrhosis (n = 305). We used a Cox proportional hazards model to calculate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death adjusted by MELD. RESULTS: The prevalence of AH was 16% considering only ALD patients. AH patients exhibited more complications. Forty-two days transplant-free survival was worse among AH, but statistical differences were only observed between AH and d-ALD groups (84 vs. 93%; p = 0.005), when adjusted by MELD no differences were observed between AH and the other groups. At one-year, survival of AH patients (72.7%) was similar to the other groups; when adjusted by MELD mortality HR was better in AH compared to a-ALD (0.48; 0.29-0.8, p = 0.004). Finally, active drinkers who remained abstinent presented better survival, independently of having AH. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to expected, AH patients with AVB present no worse one-year survival than other patients with different alcohol-related phenotypes or viral cirrhosis. Abstinence influences long-term survival and could explain these counterintuitive results.

Carvedilol reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis in a competing-risk meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-selective ß-blockers can prevent decompensation of cirrhosis warrants clarification. Carvedilol might be particularly effective since its intrinsic vasodilatory activity may ameliorate hepatic vascular resistance, a major mechanism of portal hypertension in early cirrhosis. We assessed whether carvedilol may prevent decompensation and improve survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). METHODS: By systematic review we identified randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carvedilol vs. control therapy (no-active treatment or endoscopic variceal ligation [EVL]) in patients with cirrhosis and CSPH without previous bleeding. We performed a competing-risk time-to-event meta-analysis using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Only compensated patients were included. Primary outcomes were prevention of decompensation (liver transplantation and death were competing events) and death (liver transplantation was a competing event). Models were adjusted using propensity scores for baseline covariates with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. RESULTS: Among 125 full-text studies evaluated, 4 RCTs were eligible. The 4 provided IPD and were included, comprising 352 patients with compensated cirrhosis, 181 treated with carvedilol and 171 controls (79 received EVL and 92 placebo). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Standardized differences were <10% by IPTW. The risk of developing decompensation of cirrhosis was lower with carvedilol than in controls (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.506; 95% CI 0.289-0.887; p = 0.017; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.880), mainly due to a reduced risk of ascites (SHR 0.491; 95% CI 0.247-0.974; p = 0.042; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.384). The risk of death was also lower with carvedilol (SHR 0.417; 95% CI 0.194-0.896; p = 0.025; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.989). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term carvedilol therapy reduced decompensation of cirrhosis and significantly improved survival in compensated patients with CSPH. This suggests that screening patients with compensated cirrhosis for CSPH to enable the prompt initiation of carvedilol could improve outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019144786. LAY SUMMARY: The transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis is associated with markedly reduced life expectancy. Therefore, preventing decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis would be associated with greatly improved patient outcomes. There has been controversy regarding the use of non-selective ß-blockers (portal pressure-lowering medications) in patients with cirrhosis and elevated portal blood pressure (portal hypertension). Herein, using a competing-risk meta-analysis to optimize sample size and properly investigate cirrhosis as a multistate disease and outcomes as time-dependent events, we show that carvedilol (a non-selective ß-blocker) is associated with a reduced risk of decompensating events and improved survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Non-invasive tests for clinically significant portal hypertension after HCV cure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-invasive tests (NITs) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥10 mmHg) have predominantly been studied in patients with active HCV infection. Investigations after HCV cure are limited and have yielded conflicting results. We conducted a pooled analysis to determine the diagnostic/prognostic utility of liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/platelet count (PLT) in this setting. METHODS: A total of 418 patients with pre-treatment HVPG ≥6 mmHg who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) and underwent post-treatment HVPG measurement were assessed, of whom 324 (HVPG/NIT-cohort) also had paired data on pre-/post-treatment LSM/PLT. The derived LSM/PLT criteria were then validated against the direct endpoint decompensation in 755 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) with SVR (cACLD-validation-cohort). RESULTS: HVPG/NIT-cohort: Among patients with cACLD, the pre-/post-treatment prevalence of CSPH was 80%/54%. The correlation between LSM/HVPG increased from pre- to post-treatment (r = 0.45 vs. 0.60), while that of PLT/HVPG remained unchanged. For given LSM/PLT values, HVPG tended to be lower post- vs. pre-treatment, indicating the need for dedicated algorithms. Combining post-treatment LSM/PLT yielded a high diagnostic accuracy for post-treatment CSPH in cACLD (AUC 0.884; 95% CI 0.843-0.926). Post-treatment LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L excluded CSPH (sensitivity: 99.2%), while LSM ≥25 kPa was highly specific for CSPH (93.6%). cACLD-validation-cohort: the 3-year decompensation risk was 0% in the 42.5% of patients who met the LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L criteria. In patients with post-treatment LSM ≥25 kPa (prevalence: 16.8%), the 3-year decompensation risk was 9.6%, while it was 1.3% in those meeting none of the above criteria (prevalence: 40.7%). CONCLUSIONS: NITs can estimate the probability of CSPH after HCV cure and predict clinical outcomes. Patients with cACLD but LSM <12 kPa & PLT>150 G/L may be discharged from portal hypertension surveillance if no co-factors are present, while patients with LSM ≥25 kPa require surveillance/treatment. LAY SUMMARY: Measurement of liver stiffness by a specific ultrasound device and platelet count (a simple blood test) are broadly used for the non-invasive diagnosis of increased blood pressure in the veins leading to the liver, which drives the development of complications in patients with advanced liver disease. The results of our pooled analysis refute previous concerns that these tests are less accurate after the cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We have developed diagnostic criteria that facilitate personalized management after HCV cure and allow for a de-escalation of care in a high proportion of patients, thereby decreasing disease burden.

Integrated Multiomics Reveals Glucose Use Reprogramming and Identifies a Novel Hexokinase in Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We recently showed that alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is characterized by dedifferentiation of hepatocytes and loss of mature functions. Glucose metabolism is tightly regulated in healthy hepatocytes. We hypothesize that AH may lead to metabolic reprogramming of the liver, including dysregulation of glucose metabolism. METHODS: We performed integrated metabolomic and transcriptomic analyses of liver tissue from patients with AH or alcoholic cirrhosis or normal liver tissue from hepatic resection. Focused analyses of chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled to DNA sequencing was performed. Functional in vitro studies were performed in primary rat and human hepatocytes and HepG2 cells. RESULTS: Patients with AH exhibited specific changes in the levels of intermediates of glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and monosaccharide and disaccharide metabolism. Integrated analysis of the transcriptome and metabolome showed the used of alternate energetic pathways, metabolite sinks and bottlenecks, and dysregulated glucose storage in patients with AH. Among genes involved in glucose metabolism, hexokinase domain containing 1 (HKDC1) was identified as the most up-regulated kinase in patients with AH. Histone active promoter and enhancer markers were increased in the HKDC1 genomic region. High HKDC1 levels were associated with the development of acute kidney injury and decreased survival. Increased HKDC1 activity contributed to the accumulation of glucose-6-P and glycogen in primary rat hepatocytes. CONCLUSIONS: Altered metabolite levels and messenger RNA expression of metabolic enzymes suggest the existence of extensive reprogramming of glucose metabolism in AH. Increased HKDC1 expression may contribute to dysregulated glucose metabolism and represents a novel biomarker and therapeutic target for AH.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on Vascular Liver Diseases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Vascular liver diseases (VLDs) are represented mainly by portosinusoidal vascular disease (PSVD), noncirrhotic splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT), and Budd Chiari syndrome (BCS). It is unknown whether patients with VLDs constitute a high-risk population for complications and greater coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mortality from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Our objective was to assess the prevalence and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection among patients with VLDs, as well as to assess its impact on hepatic decompensation and survival. METHODS: This is an observational international study analyzing the prevalence and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in VLDs between March 2020 and March 2021, compared with the general population (GP). Patients from Spain (5 centers; n = 493) and France (1 center; n = 475) were included. RESULTS: Nine hundred sixty-eight patients were included: 274 with PSVD, 539 with SVT, and 155 with BCS. Among them, 138 (14%) were infected with SARS-CoV-2: 53 with PSVD, 77 with SVT, and 8 with BCS. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with PSVD (19%) and SVT (14%) was significantly higher than in the GP (6.5%; P < .05), whereas it was very similar in patients with BCS (5%). In terms of infection severity, patients with VLDs also presented a higher need of hospital admission (14% vs 7.3%; P < .01), intensive care unit admission (2% vs 0.7%; P < .01), and mortality (4% vs 1.5%; P < .05) than the GP. Previous history of ascites (50% vs 8%; P < .05) and post-COVID-19 hepatic decompensation (50% vs 4%; P < .05) were associated with COVID-19 mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PSVD and SVT could be at higher risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2 and at higher risk of severe COVID-19 disease.

Decompensation in Advanced Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease May Occur at Lower Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Levels Than in Patients With Viral Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Portal hypertension is the strongest predictor of hepatic decompensation and death in patients with cirrhosis. However, its discriminatory accuracy in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been challenged because hepatic vein catheterization may not reflect the real portal vein pressure as accurately as in patients with other etiologies. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and presence of portal hypertension-related decompensation in patients with advanced NAFLD (aNAFLD). METHODS: Multicenter cross-sectional study included 548 patients with aNAFLD and 444 with advanced RNA-positive hepatitis C (aHCV) who had detailed portal hypertension evaluation (HVPG measurement, gastroscopy, and abdominal imaging). We examined the relationship between etiology, HVPG, and decompensation by logistic regression models. We also compared the proportions of compensated/decompensated patients at different HVPG levels. RESULTS: Both cohorts, aNAFLD and aHVC, had similar baseline age, gender, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. Median HVPG was lower in the aNAFLD cohort (13 vs 15 mmHg) despite similar liver function and higher rates of decompensation in aNAFLD group (32% vs 25%; P = .019) than in the aHCV group. For any of the HVPG cutoff analyzed (<10, 10-12, or 12 mmHg) the prevalence of decompensation was higher in the aNAFLD group than in the aHCV group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with aNAFLD have higher prevalence of portal hypertension-related decompensation at any value of HVPG as compared with aHCV patients. Longitudinal studies aiming to identify HVPG thresholds able to predict decompensation and long-term outcomes in aNAFLD population are strongly needed.

Bacterial infections adversely influence the risk of decompensation and survival in compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognosis of compensated cirrhosis is good until decompensation. In decompensated cirrhosis, bacterial infections (BIs) are common and increase the risk of death. The incidence and prognostic implications of BIs in compensated cirrhosis are less-well characterized. This study aimed to assess whether BIs influence the risk of decompensation and survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: This is a cohort study nested to the PREDESCI study, a double-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether ß-blockers could prevent decompensation of cirrhosis. Patients with compensated cirrhosis and hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mmHg were included. Development of BIs during follow-up was prospectively registered. Using a competing-risk time-dependent regression analysis, we investigated whether BIs affect the risk of decompensation and survival. Decompensation was defined as development of ascites, bleeding or overt encephalopathy. RESULTS: A total of 201 patients were randomized and followed for a median of 36 months (IQR 24-47 months); 34 patients (17%) developed BIs, which occurred before decompensation in 33 cases, and 29 (14%) developed ascites. Respiratory and urinary tract infections were the most frequent BIs. Decompensation occurred in 26% patients with BIs vs. 16% without BIs. Patients with BIs were at higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.93; 95% CI 1.02-8.42; p = 0.047) and of developing ascites (SHR 3.55; 95% CI 1.21-10.47; p = 0.022) than those without BIs. Risk of death was also higher in patients with BIs (subdistribution HR 6.93; 95% CI 2.64-18.18; p <0.001), although decompensation occurred before death in 71% of such cases. CONCLUSIONS: BIs have a marked impact on the natural history of compensated cirrhosis, significantly increasing the risk of decompensation, mainly that of ascites, and increasing the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. Our results suggest that BIs may constitute a target to prevent decompensation. LAY SUMMARY: It is widely known that bacterial infections are common and increase the mortality risk in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, the relevance of bacterial infections in compensated cirrhosis has not been well studied. This study shows that in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, bacterial infections occur as frequently as the development of ascites, which is the most frequent decompensating event. Bacterial infections increase the risk of progression to decompensation, mainly by increasing the risk of ascites, and also increase the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01059396.

Bacterial infections in patients with acute variceal bleeding in the era of antibiotic prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antibiotic prophylaxis reduces the risk of infection and mortality in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB). This study examines the incidence of, and risk factors for, bacterial infections during hospitalization in patients with AVB on antibiotic prophylaxis. METHODS: A post hoc analysis was performed using the database of an international, multicenter, observational study designed to examine the role of pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. Data were collected on patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for AVB (n = 2,138) from a prospective cohort (October 2013-May 2015) at 34 referral centers, and a retrospective cohort (October 2011-September 2013) at 19 of these centers. The primary outcome was incidence of bacterial infection during hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 1,656 patients out of 1,770 (93.6%) received antibiotic prophylaxis; third-generation cephalosporins (76.2%) and quinolones (19.0%) were used most frequently. Of the patients on antibiotic prophylaxis, 320 patients developed bacterial infection during hospitalization. Respiratory infection accounted for 43.6% of infections and for 49.7% of infected patients, and occurred early after admission (median 3 days, IQR 1-6). On multivariate analysis, respiratory infection was independently associated with Child-Pugh C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.7), grade III-IV encephalopathy (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8-4.4), orotracheal intubation for endoscopy (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.8-3.8), nasogastric tube placement (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4) or esophageal balloon tamponade (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.2-4.9). CONCLUSION: Bacterial infections develop in almost one-fifth of patients with AVB despite antibiotic prophylaxis. Respiratory infection is the most frequent, is an early event after admission, and is associated with advanced liver failure, severe hepatic encephalopathy and use of nasogastric tube, orotracheal intubation for endoscopy or esophageal balloon tamponade. LAY SUMMARY: Bacterial infections develop during hospitalization in close to 20% of patients with acute variceal bleeding despite antibiotic prophylaxis. Respiratory bacterial infections are the most frequent and occur early after admission. Respiratory infection is associated with advanced liver disease, severe hepatic encephalopathy and a need for a nasogastric tube, orotracheal intubation for endoscopy or esophageal balloon tamponade.

A Prognostic Strategy Based on Stage of Cirrhosis and HVPG to Improve Risk Stratification After Variceal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) decrease of 20% or more (or ≤12 mm Hg) indicates a good prognosis during propranolol/nadolol treatment but requires two HVPG measurements. We aimed to simplify the risk stratification after variceal bleeding using clinical data and HVPG. METHODS: A total of 193 patients with cirrhosis (62% with ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy [HE]) who were within 7 days of bleeding had their HVPG measured before and at 1-3 months of treatment with propranolol/nadolol plus endoscopic band ligation. The endpoints were rebleeding and rebleeding/transplantation-free survival for 4 years. Another cohort (n = 231) served as the validation set. RESULTS: During follow-up, 45 patients had variceal bleeding and 61 died. The HVPG responders (n = 71) had lower rebleeding risk (10% vs. 34%, P = 0.001) and better survival than the 122 nonresponders (61% vs. 39%, P = 0.001). Patients with HE (n = 120) had lower survival than patients without HE (40% vs. 63%, P = 0.005). Among the patients with ascites/HE, those with baseline HVPG ≤ 16 mm Hg (n = 16) had a low rebleeding risk (13%). In contrast, among patients with ascites/HE and baseline HVPG > 16 mm Hg, only the HVPG responders (n = 32) had a good prognosis, with lower rebleeding risk and better survival than the nonresponders (n = 72) (respective proportions: 7% vs. 39%, P = 0.018; 56% vs. 30% P = 0.010). These findings allowed us to develop a strategy for risk stratification in which HVPG response was measured only in patients with ascites and/or HE and baseline HVPG > 16 mm Hg. This method reduced the "gray zone" (i.e., high-risk patients who had not died on follow-up) from 46% to 35% and decreased the HVPG measurements required by 42%. The validation cohort confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting HVPG measurements to patients with ascites/HE and measuring HVPG response only if the patient's baseline HVPG is over 16 mm Hg improves detection of high-risk patients while markedly reducing the number of HVPG measurements required.

Short-term hemodynamic effects of ß-blockers influence survival of patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether the effect of ß-blockers on arterial pressure and/or cardiac function may offset the benefit of reducing portal pressure in advanced cirrhosis is controversial. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the systemic and splanchnic hemodynamic effects of ß-blockers in decompensated vs. compensated cirrhosis and to investigate the influence of systemic hemodynamic changes on survival times in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and high-risk esophageal varices, without previous bleeding, were consecutively included and grouped according to the presence or absence of decompensation (ascites with or without overt encephalopathy). Systemic and hepatic hemodynamic measurements were performed before starting ß-blockers and again after 1 to 3 months of treatment (short-term). RESULTS: Four hundred and three patients were included (190 decompensated and 213 compensated). At baseline, decompensated patients had higher portal pressure than compensated patients and were more hyperdynamic, with higher cardiac output (CO) and lower arterial pressure. Under ß-blockers, decompensated patients had lower portal pressure decrease (10 ± 18% vs. 15 ± 12%; p <0.05) and had greater reductions in heart rate (p <0.001) and CO (17 ± 15% vs. 10 ± 21%; p <0.01). Among patients with decompensated cirrhosis, those who died had a greater decrease in CO with ß-blockers than survivors (21 ± 14% vs. 15 ± 16%; p <0.05) and CO under ß-blockers independently predicted death by competing-risk regression analysis, with good diagnostic accuracy (C-index 0.74; 95% CI 0.66-0.83). Death risk was higher in decompensated patients with CO <5 L/min vs. CO ≥5 L/min (subdistribution hazard ratio 0.44; 95% CI 0.25-0.77; p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with high-risk varices treated to prevent first bleeding, the systemic hemodynamic response to ß-blockers is greater and the portal pressure decrease is smaller in those with decompensated cirrhosis. The short-term effect of ß-blockers on CO might adversely influence survival in decompensated cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: ß-blockers are often used to reduce the risk of variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. However, it is not known whether the effect of ß-blockers on arterial pressure and/or cardiac function may offset the benefit of reducing portal pressure. Herein, we show that in patients with decompensated cirrhosis the potentially detrimental systemic effects of ß-blockers are greater than in compensated patients, while the beneficial pressure lowering effects are reduced. The short-term effect of ß-blockers on cardiac output may adversely influence survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.