SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses.

On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.

5-year vaccine protection following a single dose of Vi-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine in Bangladeshi children (TyVOID): a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: WHO currently recommends a single dose of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in high-burden countries based on 2-year vaccine efficacy data from large randomised controlled trials. Given the decay of immunogenicity, the protection beyond 2 years is unknown. We therefore extended the follow-up of the TyVAC trial in Bangladesh to assess waning of vaccine protection to 5 years after vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial (TyVAC; ISRCTN11643110) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, between 2018 and 2021. Children aged 9 months to 15 years were invited to receive a single dose of TCV or Japanese encephalitis vaccine between April 15, 2018, and November 16, 2019, based on the randomisation of their clusters of residence. Children who received the Japanese encephalitis vaccine were invited to receive TCV at the final visit between Jan 6, and Aug 31, 2021, according to the protocol. This follow-on study extended the follow-up of the original trial until Aug 14, 2023. The primary endpoint of this study was to compare the incidence of blood culture-confirmed typhoid between children who received TCV in 2018-19 (the previous-TCV group) and those who received the vaccine in 2021 (the recent-TCV group), to evaluate the relative decline in vaccine protection. We also did a nested study using the test-negative design comparing the recent-TCV and previous-TCV groups with unvaccinated individuals, as well as an immunogenicity study in a subset of 1500 children. FINDINGS: Compared with the recent-TCV group, the previous-TCV group had an increased risk of typhoid fever between 2021-23, with an adjusted incidence rate ratio of 3·10 (95% CI 1·53 to 6·29; p<0·0001), indicating a decline in the protection of a single-dose of TCV 3-5 years after vaccination. The extrapolated vaccine effectiveness in years 3-5 was 50% (95% CI -13 to 78), and was validated using the test-negative design analysis, with a vaccine effectiveness of 84% (74 to 90) in the recent-TCV group and 55% (36 to 68) in the previous-TCV group, compared with unvaccinated individuals. Anti-Vi-IgG responses declined over the study period. The highest rate of decay was seen in children vaccinated at younger than 2 years in the original trial. The inverse correlation between age and the decay of antibodies was also seen in the subgroup analysis of vaccine effectiveness, where the youngest age group (<7 years at fever visits) exhibited the fastest waning, with vaccine effectiveness dropping to 24% (95% CI -29 to 55) at 3-5 years after vaccination. INTERPRETATION: A decline in the protection conferred by a single-dose TCV was observed 3-5 years after vaccination, with the greatest decline in protection and immune responses observed in children vaccinated at younger ages. A booster dose of TCV around school entry age might be needed for children vaccinated while younger than 2 years to sustain protection against typhoid fever during the school years when the risk is the highest. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the safety and efficacy of vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in different populations is essential, as is investigation of the efficacy of the vaccines against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the B.1.351 (501Y.V2) variant first identified in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) in people not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa. Participants 18 to less than 65 years of age were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of vaccine containing 5×1010 viral particles or placebo (0.9% sodium chloride solution) 21 to 35 days apart. Serum samples obtained from 25 participants after the second dose were tested by pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays against the original D614G virus and the B.1.351 variant. The primary end points were safety and efficacy of the vaccine against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic coronavirus 2019 illness (Covid-19) more than 14 days after the second dose. RESULTS: Between June 24 and November 9, 2020, we enrolled 2026 HIV-negative adults (median age, 30 years); 1010 and 1011 participants received at least one dose of placebo or vaccine, respectively. Both the pseudovirus and the live-virus neutralization assays showed greater resistance to the B.1.351 variant in serum samples obtained from vaccine recipients than in samples from placebo recipients. In the primary end-point analysis, mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%) and in 19 of 750 vaccine recipients (2.5%), for an efficacy of 21.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], -49.9 to 59.8). Among the 42 participants with Covid-19, 39 cases (95.1% of 41 with sequencing data) were caused by the B.1.351 variant; vaccine efficacy against this variant, analyzed as a secondary end point, was 10.4% (95% CI, -76.8 to 54.8). The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04444674; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR202006922165132).

Effects of Two Early Parenting Programmes on Child Aggression and Risk for Violence in Brazil: a Randomised Controlled Trial.

Violence is a major public health problem globally, with the highest rates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the Americas and southern Africa. Parenting programmes in high-income countries can diminish risk for violence, by reducing risk factors such as child aggression and harsh parenting, and increasing protective factors such as child cognitive development and school readiness. However, there is critical need to identify low-cost programmes with replicable benefits that work in real-world LMICs contexts. A three-arm, randomised, single-blind trial evaluated effects of two low-cost, group-based parenting programmes recommended for LMICs (ACT: Raising Safe Kids; DBS: dialogic book-sharing) on child aggression (primary outcome), child development, parenting, maltreatment, and stress. Participants were 369 children with medium-high levels of aggression (mean age 3.1 years at baseline) in poor households. Interventions were implemented in city health and education services in southern Brazil. Maternal reports, filmed observations, child tasks, and hair cortisol were assessed at baseline, 1-month post-intervention, and 8-month follow-up. Intention-to-treat analyses compared each of ACT and DBS with a control group. Three hundred sixty-eight (99.7%) participants completed follow-up assessments 8 months after the interventions. There was no effect of ACT (standardised mean difference, SMD 0.11, 95% CI - 0.05, 0.27) or DBS (SMD 0.05, 95% CI - 0.11, 0.21) on the primary outcome of child aggression. ACT reduced harsh parenting behaviour post-intervention (SMD - 0.23; 95% CI - 0.46, - 0.01), but not at follow-up. DBS improved book-sharing practices at both time points (e.g., maternal sensitivity at follow-up SMD 0.33; 95% CI 0.08, 0.57). There were no benefits of either programme for other parenting, child development, or stress outcomes. Two parenting programmes in Brazil had small effects on parenting practices but did not reduce child aggression or several other important risk/protective factors for violence. Effective early interventions that reduce violence in real-world LMIC settings are highly desirable but may be challenging to achieve.

Nasopharyngeal Carriage of Pneumococcus in Children in England up to 10 Years After 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction: Persistence of Serotypes 3 and 19A and Emergence of 7C.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring changes in pharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus in children following 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) introduction in the United Kingdom in 2010 informs understanding of patterns of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal swabs from healthy children vaccinated with PCV13 according to schedule (2, 4, and 12 months) were cultured and serotyped. Results for children aged 13-48 months were compared between 2014-2015 and 2017-2019 and with children aged 6-12 months (2017-2020). Blood was obtained from a subset of children for pneumococcal serotype-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG). RESULTS: Total pneumococcal carriage at 13-48 months was 47.9% (473/988) in 2014-2015 and 51.8% (412/795) in 2017-2019 (P = .10); at age 6-12 months this value was 44.6% (274/615). In 2017-2019, 2.9% (95% confidence interval, 1.8%-4.3%) of children aged 13-48 months carried PCV13 serotypes (mainly 3 [1.5%] and 19A [0.8%]) and >20% carried the additional 20-valent PCV (PCV20) serotypes. Similar proportions of children had IgG ≥0.35 IU/mL for each serotype in 2014-2015 and 2017-2019. Serotype 7C carriage increased significantly (P < .01) between 2014-2015 and 2017-2019. Carriage of PCV20 serotypes 8 and 12F, both major causes of IPD, was rare. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of PCV20, if licensed for children, could significantly change the composition of pneumococcal serotypes carried in the pharynx of UK children. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03102840.

Heterologous versus homologous COVID-19 booster vaccination in previous recipients of two doses of CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine in Brazil (RHH-001): a phase 4, non-inferiority, single blind, randomised study.

INTRODUCTION: The inactivated whole-virion SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac, Sinovac) has been widely used in a two-dose schedule. We assessed whether a third dose of the homologous or a different vaccine could boost immune responses. METHODS: RHH-001 is a phase 4, participant masked, two centre, safety and immunogenicity study of Brazilian adults (18 years and older) in São Paulo or Salvador who had received two doses of CoronaVac 6 months previously. The third heterologous dose was of either a recombinant adenoviral vectored vaccine (Ad26.COV2-S, Janssen), an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2, Pfizer-BioNTech), or a recombinant adenoviral-vectored ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222, AstraZeneca), compared with a third homologous dose of CoronaVac. Participants were randomly assigned (5:6:5:5) by a RedCAP computer randomisation system stratified by site, age group (18-60 years or 61 years and over), and day of randomisation, with a block size of 42. The primary outcome was non-inferiority of anti-spike IgG antibodies 28 days after the booster dose in the heterologous boost groups compared with homologous regimen, using a non-inferiority margin for the geometric mean ratio (heterologous vs homologous) of 0·67. Secondary outcomes included neutralising antibody titres at day 28, local and systemic reactogenicity profiles, adverse events, and serious adverse events. This study was registered with Registro Brasileiro de Ensaios Clínicos, number RBR-9nn3scw. FINDINGS: Between Aug 16, and Sept 1, 2021, 1240 participants were randomly assigned to one of the four groups, of whom 1239 were vaccinated and 1205 were eligible for inclusion in the primary analysis. Antibody concentrations were low before administration of a booster dose with detectable neutralising antibodies of 20·4% (95% CI 12·8-30·1) in adults aged 18-60 years and 8·9% (4·2-16·2) in adults 61 years or older. From baseline to day 28 after the booster vaccine, all groups had a substantial rise in IgG antibody concentrations: the geometric fold-rise was 77 (95% CI 67-88) for Ad26.COV2-S, 152 (134-173) for BNT162b2, 90 (77-104) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, and 12 (11-14) for CoronaVac. All heterologous regimens had anti-spike IgG responses at day 28 that were superior to homologous booster responses: geometric mean ratios (heterologous vs homologous) were 6·7 (95% CI 5·8-7·7) for Ad26.COV2-S, 13·4 (11·6-15·3) for BNT162b2, and 7·0 (6·1-8·1) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. All heterologous boost regimens induced high concentrations of pseudovirus neutralising antibodies. At day 28, all groups except for the homologous boost in the older adults reached 100% seropositivity: geometric mean ratios (heterologous vs homologous) were 8·7 (95% CI 5·9-12·9) for Ad26.COV2-S vaccine, 21·5 (14·5-31·9) for BNT162b2, and 10·6 (7·2-15·6) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Live virus neutralising antibodies were also boosted against delta (B.1.617.2) and omicron variants (B.1.1.529). There were five serious adverse events. Three of which were considered possibly related to the vaccine received: one in the BNT162b2 group and two in the Ad26.COV2-S group. All participants recovered and were discharged home. INTERPRETATION: Antibody concentrations were low at 6 months after previous immunisation with two doses of CoronaVac. However, all four vaccines administered as a third dose induced a significant increase in binding and neutralising antibodies, which could improve protection against infection. Heterologous boosting resulted in more robust immune responses than homologous boosting and might enhance protection. FUNDING: Ministry of Health, Brazil.

Persistence of the immune response after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (AZD1222): 1 year of follow-up of two randomized controlled trials.

The trajectory of immune responses following the primary dose series determines the decline in vaccine effectiveness over time. Here we report on maintenance of immune responses during the year following a two-dose schedule of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/AZD1222, in the absence of infection, and also explore the decay of antibody after infection. Total spike-specific IgG antibody titres were lower with two low doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines (two low doses) (P = 0.0006) than with 2 standard doses (the approved dose) or low dose followed by standard dose vaccines regimens. Longer intervals between first and second doses resulted in higher antibody titres (P < 0.0001); however, there was no evidence that the trajectory of antibody decay differed by interval or by vaccine dose, and the decay of IgG antibody titres followed a similar trajectory after a third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Trends in post-infection samples were similar with an initial rapid decay in responses but good persistence of measurable responses thereafter. Extrapolation of antibody data, following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19, demonstrates a slow rate of antibody decay with modelling, suggesting that antibody titres are well maintained for at least 2 years. These data suggest a persistent immune response after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 which will likely have a positive impact against serious disease and hospitalization.

Protection by vaccination of children against typhoid fever with a Vi-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine in urban Bangladesh: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Vi-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) is recommended by WHO for implementation in high-burden countries, but there is little evidence about its ability to protect against clinical typhoid in such settings. METHODS: We did a participant-masked and observer-masked cluster-randomised trial preceded by a safety pilot phase in an urban endemic setting in Dhaka, Bangladesh. 150 clusters, each with approximately 1350 residents, were randomly assigned (1:1) to either Vi-TT or SA 14-14-2 Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine. Children aged 9 months to less than 16 years were invited via parent or guardian to receive a single, parenteral dose of vaccine according to their cluster of residence. The study population was followed for an average of 17·1 months. Total and overall protection by Vi-TT against blood culture-confirmed typhoid were the primary endpoints assessed in the intention-to-treat population of vaccinees or all residents in the clusters. A subset of approximately 4800 participants was assessed with active surveillance for adverse events. The trial is registered at www.isrctn.com, ISRCTN11643110. FINDINGS: 41 344 children were vaccinated in April-May, 2018, with another 20 412 children vaccinated at catch-up vaccination campaigns between September and December, 2018, and April and May, 2019. The incidence of typhoid fever (cases per 100 000 person-years) was 635 in JE vaccinees and 96 in Vi-TT vaccinees (total Vi-TT protection 85%; 97·5% CI 76 to 91, p<0·0001). Total vaccine protection was consistent in different age groups, including children vaccinated at ages under 2 years (81%; 95% CI 39 to 94, p=0·0052). The incidence was 213 among all residents in the JE clusters and 93 in the Vi-TT clusters (overall Vi-TT protection 57%; 97·5% CI 43 to 68, p<0·0001). We did not observe significant indirect vaccine protection by Vi-TT (19%; 95% CI -12 to 41, p=0·20). The vaccines were well tolerated, and no serious adverse events judged to be vaccine-related were observed. INTERPRETATION: Vi-TT provided protection against typhoid fever to children vaccinated between 9 months and less than 16 years. Longer-term follow-up will be needed to assess the duration of protection and the need for booster doses. FUNDING: The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reactogenicity and immunogenicity after a late second dose or a third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in the UK: a substudy of two randomised controlled trials (COV001 and COV002).

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine supply shortages are causing concerns about compromised immunity in some countries as the interval between the first and second dose becomes longer. Conversely, countries with no supply constraints are considering administering a third dose. We assessed the persistence of immunogenicity after a single dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222), immunity after an extended interval (44-45 weeks) between the first and second dose, and response to a third dose as a booster given 28-38 weeks after the second dose. METHODS: In this substudy, volunteers aged 18-55 years who were enrolled in the phase 1/2 (COV001) controlled trial in the UK and had received either a single dose or two doses of 5 × 1010 viral particles were invited back for vaccination. Here we report the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of a delayed second dose (44-45 weeks after first dose) or a third dose of the vaccine (28-38 weeks after second dose). Data from volunteers aged 18-55 years who were enrolled in either the phase 1/2 (COV001) or phase 2/3 (COV002), single-blinded, randomised controlled trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and who had previously received a single dose or two doses of 5 × 1010 viral particles are used for comparison purposes. COV001 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, and ISRCTN, 15281137, and COV002 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04400838, and ISRCTN, 15281137, and both are continuing but not recruiting. FINDINGS: Between March 11 and 21, 2021, 90 participants were enrolled in the third-dose boost substudy, of whom 80 (89%) were assessable for reactogenicity, 75 (83%) were assessable for evaluation of antibodies, and 15 (17%) were assessable for T-cells responses. The two-dose cohort comprised 321 participants who had reactogenicity data (with prime-boost interval of 8-12 weeks: 267 [83%] of 321; 15-25 weeks: 24 [7%]; or 44-45 weeks: 30 [9%]) and 261 who had immunogenicity data (interval of 8-12 weeks: 115 [44%] of 261; 15-25 weeks: 116 [44%]; and 44-45 weeks: 30 [11%]). 480 participants from the single-dose cohort were assessable for immunogenicity up to 44-45 weeks after vaccination. Antibody titres after a single dose measured approximately 320 days after vaccination remained higher than the titres measured at baseline (geometric mean titre of 66·00 ELISA units [EUs; 95% CI 47·83-91·08] vs 1·75 EUs [1·60-1·93]). 32 participants received a late second dose of vaccine 44-45 weeks after the first dose, of whom 30 were included in immunogenicity and reactogenicity analyses. Antibody titres were higher 28 days after vaccination in those with a longer interval between first and second dose than for those with a short interval (median total IgG titre: 923 EUs [IQR 525-1764] with an 8-12 week interval; 1860 EUs [917-4934] with a 15-25 week interval; and 3738 EUs [1824-6625] with a 44-45 week interval). Among participants who received a third dose of vaccine, antibody titres (measured in 73 [81%] participants for whom samples were available) were significantly higher 28 days after a third dose (median total IgG titre: 3746 EUs [IQR 2047-6420]) than 28 days after a second dose (median 1792 EUs [IQR 899-4634]; Wilcoxon signed rank test p=0·0043). T-cell responses were also boosted after a third dose (median response increased from 200 spot forming units [SFUs] per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells [PBMCs; IQR 127-389] immediately before the third dose to 399 SFUs per milion PBMCs [314-662] by day 28 after the third dose; Wilcoxon signed rank test p=0·012). Reactogenicity after a late second dose or a third dose was lower than reactogenicity after a first dose. INTERPRETATION: An extended interval before the second dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 leads to increased antibody titres. A third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 induces antibodies to a level that correlates with high efficacy after second dose and boosts T-cell responses. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Science, Thames Valley and South Midlands NIHR Clinical Research Network, AstraZeneca, and Wellcome.

Single-dose administration and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine: a pooled analysis of four randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, with a regimen of two standard doses given with an interval of 4-12 weeks. The planned roll-out in the UK will involve vaccinating people in high-risk categories with their first dose immediately, and delivering the second dose 12 weeks later. Here, we provide both a further prespecified pooled analysis of trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and exploratory analyses of the impact on immunogenicity and efficacy of extending the interval between priming and booster doses. In addition, we show the immunogenicity and protection afforded by the first dose, before a booster dose has been offered. METHODS: We present data from three single-blind randomised controlled trials-one phase 1/2 study in the UK (COV001), one phase 2/3 study in the UK (COV002), and a phase 3 study in Brazil (COV003)-and one double-blind phase 1/2 study in South Africa (COV005). As previously described, individuals 18 years and older were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (5 × 1010 viral particles) or a control vaccine or saline placebo. In the UK trial, a subset of participants received a lower dose (2·2 × 1010 viral particles) of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 for the first dose. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, defined as a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia) more than 14 days after the second dose. Secondary efficacy analyses included cases occuring at least 22 days after the first dose. Antibody responses measured by immunoassay and by pseudovirus neutralisation were exploratory outcomes. All cases of COVID-19 with a NAAT-positive swab were adjudicated for inclusion in the analysis by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The primary analysis included all participants who were SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative at baseline, had had at least 14 days of follow-up after the second dose, and had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from NAAT swabs. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose. The four trials are registered at ISRCTN89951424 (COV003) and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606 (COV001), NCT04400838 (COV002), and NCT04444674 (COV005). FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4-74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3-85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59-0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3-91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0-69·9] at <6 weeks). These observations are supported by immunogenicity data that showed binding antibody responses more than two-fold higher after an interval of 12 or more weeks compared with an interval of less than 6 weeks in those who were aged 18-55 years (GMR 2·32 [2·01-2·68]). INTERPRETATION: The results of this primary analysis of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 were consistent with those seen in the interim analysis of the trials and confirm that the vaccine is efficacious, with results varying by dose interval in exploratory analyses. A 3-month dose interval might have advantages over a programme with a short dose interval for roll-out of a pandemic vaccine to protect the largest number of individuals in the population as early as possible when supplies are scarce, while also improving protection after receiving a second dose. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR), The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, the Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine administered in a prime-boost regimen in young and old adults (COV002): a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 2/3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Older adults (aged ≥70 years) are at increased risk of severe disease and death if they develop COVID-19 and are therefore a priority for immunisation should an efficacious vaccine be developed. Immunogenicity of vaccines is often worse in older adults as a result of immunosenescence. We have reported the immunogenicity of a novel chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222), in young adults, and now describe the safety and immunogenicity of this vaccine in a wider range of participants, including adults aged 70 years and older. METHODS: In this report of the phase 2 component of a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 2/3 trial (COV002), healthy adults aged 18 years and older were enrolled at two UK clinical research facilities, in an age-escalation manner, into 18-55 years, 56-69 years, and 70 years and older immunogenicity subgroups. Participants were eligible if they did not have severe or uncontrolled medical comorbidities or a high frailty score (if aged ≥65 years). First, participants were recruited to a low-dose cohort, and within each age group, participants were randomly assigned to receive either intramuscular ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (2·2 × 1010 virus particles) or a control vaccine, MenACWY, using block randomisation and stratified by age and dose group and study site, using the following ratios: in the 18-55 years group, 1:1 to either two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or two doses of MenACWY; in the 56-69 years group, 3:1:3:1 to one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, one dose of MenACWY, two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or two doses of MenACWY; and in the 70 years and older, 5:1:5:1 to one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, one dose of MenACWY, two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or two doses of MenACWY. Prime-booster regimens were given 28 days apart. Participants were then recruited to the standard-dose cohort (3·5-6·5 × 1010 virus particles of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) and the same randomisation procedures were followed, except the 18-55 years group was assigned in a 5:1 ratio to two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or two doses of MenACWY. Participants and investigators, but not staff administering the vaccine, were masked to vaccine allocation. The specific objectives of this report were to assess the safety and humoral and cellular immunogenicity of a single-dose and two-dose schedule in adults older than 55 years. Humoral responses at baseline and after each vaccination until 1 year after the booster were assessed using an in-house standardised ELISA, a multiplex immunoassay, and a live severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) microneutralisation assay (MNA80). Cellular responses were assessed using an ex-vivo IFN-γ enzyme-linked immunospot assay. The coprimary outcomes of the trial were efficacy, as measured by the number of cases of symptomatic, virologically confirmed COVID-19, and safety, as measured by the occurrence of serious adverse events. Analyses were by group allocation in participants who received the vaccine. Here, we report the preliminary findings on safety, reactogenicity, and cellular and humoral immune responses. This study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04400838, and ISRCTN, 15281137. FINDINGS: Between May 30 and Aug 8, 2020, 560 participants were enrolled: 160 aged 18-55 years (100 assigned to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 60 assigned to MenACWY), 160 aged 56-69 years (120 assigned to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19: 40 assigned to MenACWY), and 240 aged 70 years and older (200 assigned to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19: 40 assigned to MenACWY). Seven participants did not receive the boost dose of their assigned two-dose regimen, one participant received the incorrect vaccine, and three were excluded from immunogenicity analyses due to incorrectly labelled samples. 280 (50%) of 552 analysable participants were female. Local and systemic reactions were more common in participants given ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 than in those given the control vaccine, and similar in nature to those previously reported (injection-site pain, feeling feverish, muscle ache, headache), but were less common in older adults (aged ≥56 years) than younger adults. In those receiving two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, after the prime vaccination local reactions were reported in 43 (88%) of 49 participants in the 18-55 years group, 22 (73%) of 30 in the 56-69 years group, and 30 (61%) of 49 in the 70 years and older group, and systemic reactions in 42 (86%) participants in the 18-55 years group, 23 (77%) in the 56-69 years group, and 32 (65%) in the 70 years and older group. As of Oct 26, 2020, 13 serious adverse events occurred during the study period, none of which were considered to be related to either study vaccine. In participants who received two doses of vaccine, median anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses 28 days after the boost dose were similar across the three age cohorts (standard-dose groups: 18-55 years, 20 713 arbitrary units [AU]/mL [IQR 13 898-33 550], n=39; 56-69 years, 16 170 AU/mL [10 233-40 353], n=26; and ≥70 years 17 561 AU/mL [9705-37 796], n=47; p=0·68). Neutralising antibody titres after a boost dose were similar across all age groups (median MNA80 at day 42 in the standard-dose groups: 18-55 years, 193 [IQR 113-238], n=39; 56-69 years, 144 [119-347], n=20; and ≥70 years, 161 [73-323], n=47; p=0·40). By 14 days after the boost dose, 208 (>99%) of 209 boosted participants had neutralising antibody responses. T-cell responses peaked at day 14 after a single standard dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (18-55 years: median 1187 spot-forming cells [SFCs] per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells [IQR 841-2428], n=24; 56-69 years: 797 SFCs [383-1817], n=29; and ≥70 years: 977 SFCs [458-1914], n=48). INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 appears to be better tolerated in older adults than in younger adults and has similar immunogenicity across all age groups after a boost dose. Further assessment of the efficacy of this vaccine is warranted in all age groups and individuals with comorbidities. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midlands NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Phase 3 Efficacy Analysis of a Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Trial in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella Typhi is a major cause of fever in children in low- and middle-income countries. A typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) that was recently prequalified by the World Health Organization was shown to be efficacious in a human challenge model, but data from efficacy trials in areas where typhoid is endemic are lacking. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized, controlled trial in Lalitpur, Nepal, in which both the participants and observers were unaware of the trial-group assignments, we randomly assigned children who were between 9 months and 16 years of age, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive either a TCV or a capsular group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenA) as a control. The primary outcome was typhoid fever confirmed by blood culture. We present the prespecified analysis of the primary and main secondary outcomes (including an immunogenicity subgroup); the 2-year trial follow-up is ongoing. RESULTS: A total of 10,005 participants received the TCV and 10,014 received the MenA vaccine. Blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever occurred in 7 participants who received TCV (79 cases per 100,000 person-years) and in 38 who received MenA vaccine (428 cases per 100,000 person-years) (vaccine efficacy, 81.6%; 95% confidence interval, 58.8 to 91.8; P<0.001). A total of 132 serious adverse events (61 in the TCV group and 71 in the MenA vaccine group) occurred in the first 6 months, and 1 event (pyrexia) was identified as being vaccine-related; the participant remained unaware of the trial-group assignment. Similar rates of adverse events were noted in the two trial groups; fever developed in 5.0% of participants in the TCV group and 5.4% in the MenA vaccine group in the first week after vaccination. In the immunogenicity subgroup, seroconversion (a Vi IgG level that at least quadrupled 28 days after vaccination) was 99% in the TCV group (677 of 683 participants) and 2% in the MenA vaccine group (8 of 380 participants). CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of TCV was immunogenic and effective in reducing S. Typhi bacteremia in children 9 months to 16 years of age. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN43385161.).

Impact of Vaccination on Haemophilus influenzae Type b Carriage in Healthy Children Less Than 5 Years of Age in an Urban Population in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Reduction in detection of asymptomatic carriage of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) can be used to assess vaccine impact. In Nepal, routine vaccination against Hib in children at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age was introduced in 2009. Before vaccine introduction, Hib carriage was estimated at 5.0% among children aged <13 years in Nepal, with higher rates among children under 5. Large-scale evaluation of Hib carriage in children has not been investigated since the introduction of the pentavalent diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis/Hib/hepatitis B (DTP-Hib-HepB) vaccine in Nepal. METHODS: A total of 666 oropharyngeal swabs were collected between August and December 2018 from healthy children between 6 months and 5 years of age attending the vaccination clinic at Patan Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal. Of these 666 swabs, 528 (79.3%) were tested for Hib by culture. Demographic and vaccination data were collected. RESULTS: Among 528 swabs tested for Hib, 100% came from fully vaccinated children. No swabs were positive for Hib (95% confidence interval, .0-.7). The absence of Hib in 2018 suggests vaccine-induced protection against Hib carriage 9 years after vaccine introduction. CONCLUSIONS: Following 3 doses of pentavalent DTP-Hib-HepB vaccine, Hib carriage in children under the age of 5 years in Nepal is no longer common. Ongoing high coverage with Hib vaccine in early childhood is expected to maintain protection against Hib disease in Nepal.

Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a preliminary report of a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might be curtailed by vaccination. We assessed the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a viral vectored coronavirus vaccine that expresses the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We did a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial in five trial sites in the UK of a chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein compared with a meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) as control. Healthy adults aged 18-55 years with no history of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19-like symptoms were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 at a dose of 5 × 1010 viral particles or MenACWY as a single intramuscular injection. A protocol amendment in two of the five sites allowed prophylactic paracetamol to be administered before vaccination. Ten participants assigned to a non-randomised, unblinded ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 prime-boost group received a two-dose schedule, with the booster vaccine administered 28 days after the first dose. Humoral responses at baseline and following vaccination were assessed using a standardised total IgG ELISA against trimeric SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, a muliplexed immunoassay, three live SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation assays (a 50% plaque reduction neutralisation assay [PRNT50]; a microneutralisation assay [MNA50, MNA80, and MNA90]; and Marburg VN), and a pseudovirus neutralisation assay. Cellular responses were assessed using an ex-vivo interferon-γ enzyme-linked immunospot assay. The co-primary outcomes are to assess efficacy, as measured by cases of symptomatic virologically confirmed COVID-19, and safety, as measured by the occurrence of serious adverse events. Analyses were done by group allocation in participants who received the vaccine. Safety was assessed over 28 days after vaccination. Here, we report the preliminary findings on safety, reactogenicity, and cellular and humoral immune responses. The study is ongoing, and was registered at ISRCTN, 15281137, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and May 21, 2020, 1077 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive either ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=543) or MenACWY (n=534), ten of whom were enrolled in the non-randomised ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 prime-boost group. Local and systemic reactions were more common in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and many were reduced by use of prophylactic paracetamol, including pain, feeling feverish, chills, muscle ache, headache, and malaise (all p<0·05). There were no serious adverse events related to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. In the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, spike-specific T-cell responses peaked on day 14 (median 856 spot-forming cells per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells, IQR 493-1802; n=43). Anti-spike IgG responses rose by day 28 (median 157 ELISA units [EU], 96-317; n=127), and were boosted following a second dose (639 EU, 360-792; n=10). Neutralising antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 32 (91%) of 35 participants after a single dose when measured in MNA80 and in 35 (100%) participants when measured in PRNT50. After a booster dose, all participants had neutralising activity (nine of nine in MNA80 at day 42 and ten of ten in Marburg VN on day 56). Neutralising antibody responses correlated strongly with antibody levels measured by ELISA (R2=0·67 by Marburg VN; p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular immune responses, support large-scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 programme. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Gießen-Marburg-Langen.

Melatonin In Acute Mania Investigation (MIAMI-UK). A randomized controlled trial of add-on melatonin in bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVES: Current options for treating emergent episodes of hypomania and mania in bipolar disorder are limited. Our objective was to compare the effectiveness and safety of add-on melatonin in hypomania or mania over 3 weeks as a well-tolerated therapy. METHODS: A randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, 3-week comparison of modified release melatonin (n = 21) vs placebo (n = 20) in adult bipolar patients aged 18-65 years. Permuted block randomization was used with participants and investigators masked to treatment allocation. Trial registration is ISRCTN28988273 and EUdraCT2008-000281-23. Approved by the South Central National Research Ethics Service (Oxford REC A) ref: 09/H0604/63. RESULTS: The trial was negative as there was no significant difference between melatonin and placebo on the primary outcome-mean Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) score at Day 21: (mean difference [MD] -1.77 ([95% CI: -6.39 to 2.85]; P = .447). Significantly fewer patients on melatonin scored 10 or more on the Altman Self Rating Mania Scale: (odds ratio [OR] 0.164 [95% CI: 0.0260-1.0002]; P = .05). Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Clinician Version-16 (QIDS-C16) scores were not significantly different. (OR 1.77 [95% CI: 0.43-7.29]; P = .430). The proportion of patients scoring less than or equal to 5 on the self-report QIDS-SR16 at end-point was greater for the melatonin group (OR 8.35 [95% CI: 1.04-67.23]; P = .046). CONCLUSIONS: In this small trial, melatonin did not effectively treat emerging hypomania or mania as there was no significant difference on the primary outcome. The sample size limitation and secondary outcomes suggest further investigation of melatonin treatment in mood episodes is indicated.

A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data.

Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking-and how these factors vary by age-while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control.

Persistent Circulation of Vaccine Serotypes and Serotype Replacement After 5 Years of Infant Immunization With 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Following programmatic introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), there is residual carriage and disease due to PCV13-covered serotypes. METHODS: PCV13-immunized children aged 13-48 months, N = 988, were enrolled between February 2014 and August 2015 ("late PCV13"), and had nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage compared with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) immunized children, N = 567, enrolled between November 2010 and September 2011 ("early PCV13"). Nasopharyngeal pneumococci were molecular-serotyped by microarray. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were identified through enhanced national surveillance. RESULTS: Compared with PCV7-immunized children, carriage among PCV13-immunized children was significantly lower for serotypes 19A (odds ratio [OR], 0.08 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .02-.25]), 6C (OR, 0.11 [95% CI, .03-.32]), and 7F (8 vs 0 cases). IPD incidence in children <5 years was significantly lower for serotypes 1 (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.03 [95% CI, 0-.19]) and 7F (IRR, 0.13 [95% CI, .05-.36]) but not 19A (IRR, 0.6 [95% CI, .3-1.12]) or serotype 3 (IRR, 2.3 [95% CI, .86-6.15]) in the late PCV13 period than in the early PCV13 period. The most significant rises in IPD incidence were for serotypes 8, 12F, and 24F. CONCLUSIONS: PCV13 has reduced serotype 19A carriage among vaccinated children. We found no impact of PCV13 on serotype 3 carriage or disease, and emergence of non-PCV13-serotype disease.

The Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP), Severe Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa (SETA), Surveillance of Enteric Fever in India (SEFI), and Strategic Typhoid Alliance Across Africa and Asia (STRATAA) Population-based Enteric Fever Studies: A Review of Methodological Similarities and Differences.

Building on previous multicountry surveillance studies of typhoid and others salmonelloses such as the Diseases of the Most Impoverished program and the Typhoid Surveillance in Africa Project, several ongoing blood culture surveillance studies are generating important data about incidence, severity, transmission, and clinical features of invasive Salmonella infections in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. These studies are also characterizing drug resistance patterns in their respective study sites. Each study answers a different set of research questions and employs slightly different methodologies, and the geographies under surveillance differ in size, population density, physician practices, access to healthcare facilities, and access to microbiologically safe water and improved sanitation. These differences in part reflect the heterogeneity of the epidemiology of invasive salmonellosis globally, and thus enable generation of data that are useful to policymakers in decision-making for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs). Moreover, each study is evaluating the large-scale deployment of TCVs, and may ultimately be used to assess post-introduction vaccine impact. The data generated by these studies will also be used to refine global disease burden estimates. It is important to ensure that lessons learned from these studies not only inform vaccination policy, but also are incorporated into sustainable, low-cost, integrated vaccine-preventable disease surveillance systems.

The Design and Analysis of Seroefficacy Studies for Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Demonstrating the efficacy of new Vi-conjugate typhoid vaccines is challenging, due to the cost of field trials requiring tens of thousands of participants. New trial designs that use serologically defined typhoid infections (seroefficacy trials) rather than blood culture positivity as a study endpoint may be useful to assess efficacy using small trials. METHODS: We developed a model for Vi-immunoglobin G antibody responses to a Vi-vaccine, incorporating decay over time and natural boosting due to endemic exposures. From this, we simulated clinical trials in which 2 blood samples were taken during follow-up and the relative risk of a serologically defined typhoid infection (seroefficacy) was computed. We aimed to determine (1) whether seroefficacy trial designs could substantially reduce sample sizes, compared with trials using blood culture-confirmed cases; (3) whether the rate of case detection was higher in seroefficacy trials; and (3) the optimal timing of sample collection. RESULTS: The majority (>90%) of blood culture-positive typhoid cases remain unobserved in surveillance studies. In contrast, under-detection in simulated seroefficacy trials of equivalent vaccines was as little as 26%, and estimates of the relative risk of typhoid infection were unbiased. For simulated trials of non-equivalent vaccines, relative risks were slightly inflated by at least 5%, depending on the sample collection times. Seroefficacy trials required as few as 460 participants per arm, compared with 10 000 per arm for trials using blood culture-confirmed cases. CONCLUSIONS: Seroefficacy trials can establish the efficacy of new conjugate vaccines using small trials that enroll hundreds rather than thousands of participants, and without the need for resource-intensive typhoid fever surveillance programs.