Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2022-June 2023.

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative began in 1988, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission was reported in 125 countries. Since 2017, Afghanistan and Pakistan remain the only countries with uninterrupted endemic WPV type 1 (WPV1) transmission. This report describes activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2022-June 2023. Two WPV1 cases were reported during January-December 2022 and five during January-June 2023 (as of August 26), all from three provinces in the southeast and east regions bordering Pakistan. All five 2023 patients had reportedly received ≥16 oral poliovirus vaccine doses. WPV1 was detected in sewage samples from a site in the south region in May 2023 and one in the north region in June 2023, the first detections since February 2021 and March 2020, respectively. Restrictions on house-to-house vaccination limit the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in parts of the south and northeast regions. Because of population movement, the risk for transmission in Afghanistan and Pakistan will remain if WPV1 circulation continues in either country. Despite operational improvements in vaccination activities, interruption of WPV1 transmission in Afghanistan will require committed, uninterrupted efforts, including ongoing coordination with Pakistan on polio eradication activities, to address vaccination coverage gaps that sustain WPV1 circulation.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2020-November 2021.

Wild poliovirus types 2 and 3 were declared eradicated in 2015 and 2019, respectively, and, since 2017, transmission of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) has been detected only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2020, these countries reported their highest number of WPV1 cases since 2014 and experienced outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2)* (1); in Afghanistan, the number of WPV1 cases reported increased 93%, from 29 in 2019 to 56 in 2020, with 308 cVDPV2 cases reported. This report describes the activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2020-November 2021 and updates previous reports (2-4). Despite restrictions imposed by antigovernment elements since 2018, disruption of polio eradication efforts by the COVID-19 pandemic, and civil and political instability, eradication activities have resumed. During January-November 2021, four WPV1 cases and 43 cVDPV2 cases were detected, representing decreases of 93% from 56 and 85% from 281, respectively, during the same period in 2020. After the assumption of nationwide control by the current de facto government of Afghanistan during August 2021, health officials committed to oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) campaigns nationwide, with the potential to vaccinate approximately 2.5 million children against poliovirus who were previously not accessible for ≥2 years. Although challenges remain, vigorous, sustained polio eradication efforts in Afghanistan could result in substantial progress toward eradication during 2022-2023.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2021-September 2022.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are the two remaining countries with endemic wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission (1). During 2019-2020, these countries reported their highest numbers of WPV1 cases since 2014 and experienced outbreaks of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (2-4).* In Afghanistan, the number of WPV1 cases nearly doubled, from 29 in 2019 to 56 in 2020; 308 cVDPV2 cases were reported during 2020. After years of active conflict, the Afghanistan government was fully replaced by the Taliban de facto government on August 15, 2021. This report describes activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2021-September 2022 and updates previous reports (3,4). During January-December 2021, four WPV1 and 43 cVDPV2 cases were detected, representing decreases of 93% from 56 cases and 86% from 308 cases, respectively, during 2020. During January-September 2022 (reported as of October 20), two WPV1 cases and zero cVDPV2 cases were detected. Although no supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)† occurred during July-October 2021, SIAs resumed during November 2021 in all districts after the political transition, and 3.5-4.5 million previously unreachable persons have been vaccinated since. However, restrictions on how SIAs are conducted are still in place in the critical South Region provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, and Uruzgan. If efforts to vaccinate all children are enhanced and expanded, Afghanistan has an opportunity to interrupt WPV1 transmission during 2023.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2019-July 2020.

Wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) transmission is ongoing only in Afghanistan and Pakistan (1). Following a decline in case numbers during 2013-2016, the number of cases in Afghanistan has increased each year during 2017-2020. This report describes polio eradication activities and progress toward polio eradication in Afghanistan during January 2019-July 2020 and updates previous reports (2,3). Since April 2018, insurgent groups have imposed bans on house-to-house vaccination. In September 2019, vaccination campaigns in areas under insurgency control were restarted only at health facilities. In addition, during March-June 2020, all campaigns were paused because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The number of WPV1 cases reported in Afghanistan increased from 21 in 2018 to 29 in 2019. During January-July 2020, 41 WPV1 cases were reported as of August 29, 2020 (compared with 15 during January-July 2019); in addition, 69 cases of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), and one case of ambiguous vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (aVDPV2) (isolates with no evidence of person-to-person transmission or from persons with no known immunodeficiency) were detected. Dialogue with insurgency leaders through nongovernmental and international organizations is ongoing in an effort to recommence house-to-house campaigns, which are essential to stopping WPV1 transmission in Afghanistan. To increase community demand for polio vaccination, additional community health needs should be addressed, and polio vaccination should be integrated with humanitarian services.

Effect of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaigns, Pakistan, 2014-2017.

Pakistan began using inactivated poliovirus vaccine alongside oral vaccine in mass campaigns to accelerate eradication of wild-type poliovirus in 2014. Using case-based and environmental surveillance data for January 2014-October 2017, we found that these campaigns reduced wild-type poliovirus detection more than campaigns that used only oral vaccine.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2017-May 2018.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria remain the only countries where transmission of endemic wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) continues (1). This report describes polio eradication activities, progress, and challenges to eradication in Afghanistan during January 2017-May 2018 and updates previous reports (2, 3). Fourteen WPV1 cases were confirmed in Afghanistan in 2017, compared with 13 in 2016; during January-May 2018, eight WPV1 cases were reported, twice the number reported during January-May 2017. To supplement surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and laboratory testing of stool samples, environmental surveillance (testing of sewage samples) was initiated in 2013 and includes 20 sites, 15 of which have detected WPV1 circulation. The number of polio-affected districts increased from six in 2016 to 14 in 2017 (including WPV1 cases and positive environmental samples). Access to children for supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) (mass campaigns targeting children aged <5 years with oral poliovirus vaccine [OPV], regardless of vaccination history), which improved during 2016 to early 2018, worsened in May 2018 in security-challenged areas of the southern and eastern regions. To achieve WPV1 eradication, measures to maintain and regain access for SIAs in security-challenged areas, strengthen oversight of SIAs in accessible areas to reduce the number of missed children, and coordinate with authorities in Pakistan to track and vaccinate mobile populations at high risk in their shared transit corridors must continue.

Estimated Effect of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaigns, Nigeria and Pakistan, January 2014-April 2016.

In 2014, inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) campaigns were implemented in Nigeria and Pakistan after clinical trials showed that IPV boosts intestinal immunity in children previously given oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). We estimated the effect of these campaigns by using surveillance data collected during January 2014-April 2016. In Nigeria, campaigns with IPV and trivalent OPV (tOPV) substantially reduced the incidence of poliomyelitis caused by circulating serotype-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.17 for 90 days after vs. 90 days before campaigns, 95% CI 0.04-0.78) and the prevalence of virus in environmental samples (prevalence ratio [PR] 0.16, 95% CI 0.02-1.33). Campaigns with tOPV alone resulted in similar reductions (IRR 0.59, 95% CI 0.18-1.97; PR 0.45, 95% CI 0.21-0.95). In Pakistan, the effect of IPV+tOPV campaigns on wild-type poliovirus was not significant. Results suggest that administration of IPV alongside OPV can decrease poliovirus transmission if high vaccine coverage is achieved.

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts. CONCLUSIONS: Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Afghanistan, January 2016-June 2017.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria remain the only countries where the transmission of endemic wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) continues (1). This report describes polio eradication activities, progress, and challenges in Afghanistan during January 2016-June 2017 and updates previous reports (2,3). Thirteen WPV1 cases were confirmed in Afghanistan in 2016, a decrease of seven from the 20 cases reported in 2015. From January to June 2017, five WPV1 cases were reported, compared with six during the same period in 2016. The number of affected districts declined from 23 (including WPV1-positive acute flaccid paralysis [AFP] cases and positive environmental sewage samples) in 2015 to six in 2016. To achieve WPV1 eradication, it is important that Afghanistan's polio program continue to collaborate with that of neighboring Pakistan to track and vaccinate groups of high-risk mobile populations and strengthen efforts to reach children in security-compromised areas.

Fractional-Dose Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaign - Sindh Province, Pakistan, 2016.

Following the declaration of eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) type 2 in September 2015, trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) was withdrawn globally to reduce the risk for type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) transmission; all countries implemented a synchronized switch to bivalent OPV (type 1 and 3) in April 2016 (1,2). Any isolation of VDPV2 after the switch is to be treated as a potential public health emergency and might indicate the need for supplementary immunization activities (3,4). On August 9, 2016, VDPV2 was isolated from a sewage sample taken from an environmental surveillance site in Hyderabad, Sindh province, Pakistan. Possible vaccination activities in response to VDPV2 isolation include the use of injectable inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), which poses no risk for vaccine-derived poliovirus transmission. Fractional-dose, intradermal IPV (fIPV), one fifth of the standard intramuscular dose, has been developed to more efficiently manage limited IPV supplies. fIPV has been shown in some studies to be noninferior to full-dose IPV (5,6) and was used successfully in response to a similar detection of a single VDPV2 isolate from sewage in India (7). Injectable fIPV was used for response activities in Hyderabad and three neighboring districts. This report describes the findings of an assessment of preparatory activities and subsequent implementation of the fIPV campaign. Despite achieving high coverage (>80%), several operational challenges were noted. The lessons learned from this campaign could help to guide the planning and implementation of future fIPV vaccination activities.

Population Immunity against Serotype-2 Poliomyelitis Leading up to the Global Withdrawal of the Oral Poliovirus Vaccine: Spatio-temporal Modelling of Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: Global withdrawal of serotype-2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) took place in April 2016. This marked a milestone in global polio eradication and was a public health intervention of unprecedented scale, affecting 155 countries. Achieving high levels of serotype-2 population immunity before OPV2 withdrawal was critical to avoid subsequent outbreaks of serotype-2 vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV2s). METHODS AND FINDINGS: In August 2015, we estimated vaccine-induced population immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis for 1 January 2004-30 June 2015 and produced forecasts for April 2016 by district in Nigeria and Pakistan. Population immunity was estimated from the vaccination histories of children <36 mo old identified with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) reported through polio surveillance, information on immunisation activities with different oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) formulations, and serotype-specific estimates of the efficacy of these OPVs against poliomyelitis. District immunity estimates were spatio-temporally smoothed using a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Coverage estimates for immunisation activities were also obtained, allowing for heterogeneity within and among districts. Forward projections of immunity, based on these estimates and planned immunisation activities, were produced through to April 2016 using a cohort model. Estimated population immunity was negatively correlated with the probability of VDPV2 poliomyelitis being reported in a district. In Nigeria and Pakistan, declines in immunity during 2008-2009 and 2012-2013, respectively, were associated with outbreaks of VDPV2. Immunity has since improved in both countries as a result of increased use of trivalent OPV, and projections generally indicated sustained or improved immunity in April 2016, such that the majority of districts (99% [95% uncertainty interval 97%-100%] in Nigeria and 84% [95% uncertainty interval 77%-91%] in Pakistan) had >70% population immunity among children <36 mo old. Districts with lower immunity were clustered in northeastern Nigeria and northwestern Pakistan. The accuracy of immunity estimates was limited by the small numbers of non-polio AFP cases in some districts, which was reflected by large uncertainty intervals. Forecasted improvements in immunity for April 2016 were robust to the uncertainty in estimates of baseline immunity (January-June 2015), vaccine coverage, and vaccine efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis was forecasted to improve in April 2016 compared to the first half of 2015 in Nigeria and Pakistan. These analyses informed the endorsement of OPV2 withdrawal in April 2016 by the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication--Pakistan, January 2014-September 2015.

Since Nigeria reported its last case of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in July 2014, Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only two countries where WPV transmission has never been interrupted. This report describes actions taken and progress achieved toward polio eradication in Pakistan during January 2014-September 2015 and updates previous reports. A total of 38 WPV1 cases were reported in Pakistan during January-September 2015, compared with 243 during the same period in 2014 (an 84% decline). Among WPV1 cases reported in 2015, 32 (84%) occurred in children aged <36 months, nine (32%) of whom had never received oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Twenty-six (68%) of the 38 reported cases occurred in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province. During January-September 2015, WPV1 was detected in 20% (64 of 325) of environmental samples collected, compared with 34% (98 of 294) of samples collected during the same period in 2014. The quality and scope of polio eradication activities improved considerably following the establishment of a national Emergency Operations Center, which coordinated polio eradication partners' activities. All activities are following a National Polio Eradication Emergency Action Plan that includes a rigorous action plan for the polio low transmission season (January-April). The presence of WPV1 in environmental samples in areas where no polio cases are detected highlights the need to improve surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). Focused efforts to close remaining immunity gaps by locating, tracking, and vaccinating continually missed children and improving coverage with OPV through the routine vaccination program are needed to stop WPV transmission in Pakistan.