China's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Estimated Using Surface Observations of Coemitted NO2.

Accurate estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions are of great importance for climate prediction and mitigation regulations but remain a significant challenge for accounting methods relying on economic statistics and emission factors. In this study, we employed a regional data assimilation framework to assimilate in situ NO2 observations, allowing us to combine observation-constrained NOx emissions coemitted with FFCO2 and grid-specific CO2-to-NOx emission ratios to infer the daily FFCO2 emissions over China. The estimated national total for 2016 was 11.4 PgCO2·yr-1, with an uncertainty (1σ) of 1.5 PgCO2·yr-1 that accounted for errors associated with atmospheric transport, inversion framework parameters, and CO2-to-NOx emission ratios. Our findings indicated that widely used "bottom-up" emission inventories generally ignore numerous activity level statistics of FFCO2 related to energy industries and power plants in western China, whereas the inventories are significantly overestimated in developed regions and key urban areas owing to exaggerated emission factors and inexact spatial disaggregation. The optimized FFCO2 estimate exhibited more distinct seasonality with a significant increase in emissions in winter. These findings advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal regime of FFCO2 emissions in China.

NO x Emission Changes Over China During the COVID-19 Epidemic Inferred From Surface NO2 Observations.

The COVID-19 epidemic has substantially limited human activities and affected anthropogenic emissions. In this work, daily NO x emissions are inferred using a regional data assimilation system and hourly surface NO2 measurement over China. The results show that because of the coronavirus outbreak, NO x emissions across the whole mainland China dropped sharply after 31 January, began to rise slightly in certain areas after 10 February, and gradually recover across the country after 20 February. Compared with the emissions before the outbreak, NO x emissions fell by more than 60% and ~30% in many large cities and most small to medium cities, respectively. Overall, NO x emissions were reduced by 36% over China, which were mainly contributed by transportation. Evaluations show that the inverted changes over eastern China are credible, whereas those in western China might be underestimated. These findings are of great significance for exploring the reduction potential of NO x emissions in China.

Improved estimation of CO2 emissions from thermal power plants based on OCO-2 XCO2 retrieval using inline plume simulation.

CO2 emissions from power plants are the dominant source of global CO2 emissions, thus in the context of global warming, accurate estimation of CO2 emissions from power plants is essential for the effective control of carbon emissions. Based on the XCO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and the Gaussian Plume Model (GPM), a series of studies have been carried out to estimate CO2 emission from power plants. However, the GPM is an ideal model, and there are a number of assumptions that need to be made when using this model, resulting in large uncertainties in the inverted emissions. Here, based on 6 cases of power plant plumes observed by the OCO-2 satellite over the Yangtze River Delta, China, we use an inline plume rise module coupled in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) to simulate the plumes and invert the emissions, and compare the simulated plumes and inverted emissions using the GPM model. We found that CO2 emissions can be significantly overestimated or underestimated based on the GPM simulations, and that the CMAQ inline plume simulation could significantly improve the estimates. However, the simulation bias in wind speed can significantly affect the inversion results. These results indicate that accurate meteorological field and plume simulations are critical for future inversion of point source emissions.

Anthropogenic emissions estimated using surface observations and their impacts on PM2.5 source apportionment over the Yangtze River Delta, China.

Source-tagged source apportionment (SA) has advantages for quantifying the contribution of various source regions and categories to PM2.5; however, it is highly affected by uncertainty in the emission inventory. In this study, we used a Regional multi-Air Pollutant Assimilation System (RAPAS) to optimize daily SO2, NOx and primary PM2.5 (PPM2.5) emissions in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in December 2016 by assimilating hourly in-situ measurements. The CMAQ-ISAM model was implemented with prior and posterior emissions respectively to investigate the impacts of optimizing emissions on PM2.5 SA in the YRD megalopolis (YRDM) and three megacities of Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou in the YRDM. The results showed that RAPAS significantly improved the simulations and reduced the emission uncertainties of the different pollutants. Compared with prior emissions, the posterior emissions in the YRD decreased by 13% and 11% for SO2 and NOx respectively, and increased by 24% for PPM2.5. Compared with SA using prior emissions, the contributions from Hangzhou, northern Zhejiang, and areas outside of the YRD to the YRDM increased. The local contributions from the YRDM, Nanjing and Shanghai decreased by 1.8%, 9.7%, and 2.3%, respectively, whereas that of Hangzhou increased by 5.6%. The changes in the daily local contributions caused by optimizing emissions ranged from -18.0% to 23.6%. Generally, under stable weather conditions, the local contribution changed the most, whereas under unstable weather conditions, the contribution from upwind areas changed significantly. Overall, with optimized emissions, we found in Nanjing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, local emissions contributed 18.2%, 39.6% and 36.8% of their PM2.5 concentrations, respectively; long-range transport from outside the YRDM contributed 59.2%, 48.1%, and 48.2%, respectively. This study emphasizes the importance of improving emission estimations for source-tagged SA and provides more reliable SA results for the main cities in the YRD, which will contribute to pollution control in these regions.

The status of carbon neutrality of the world's top 5 CO2 emitters as seen by carbon satellites.

China, the Unite States (US), the European Union (EU), India, and Russia are the world's top 5 fossil fuel and cement CO2 (FFC) emitting countries or regions (CRs). It is very important to understand their status of carbon neutrality, and to monitor their future changes of net carbon fluxes (NCFs). In this study, we implemented a well-established global carbon assimilation system (GCAS, Version 2) to infer global surface carbon fluxes from May 2009 to December 2019 using both GOSAT and OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals. The reductions of flux uncertainty and XCO2 bias, and the evaluation of posterior flux show that GCAS has comparable and good performance in the 5 CRs. The results suggest that Russia has achieved carbon neutrality, but the other 4 are still far from being carbon neutral, especially China. The mean annual NCFs in China, the US, the EU, India, and Russia are 2.33 ± 0.29, 0.82 ± 0.20, 0.42 ± 0.16, 0.50 ± 0.12, and -0.33 ± 0.23 PgC yr-1, respectively. From 2010 to 2019, the NCFs showed an increasing trend in the US and India, a slight downward trend after 2013 in China, and were stable in the EU. The changes of land sinks in China and the US might be the main reason for their trends. India's trend was mainly due to the increase of FFC emission. The relative contributions of NCFs to the global land net carbon emission of China and the EU have decreased, while those of the US and India have increased, implying the US and India must take more active measures to control carbon emissions or increase their sinks. This study indicates that satellite XCO2 could be successfully used to monitor the changes of regional NCFs, which is of great significance for major countries to achieve greenhouse gas control goals.

The Nord Stream pipeline gas leaks released approximately 220,000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere.

Sudden mega natural gas leaks of two Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea (Denmark) occurred from late September to early October 2022, releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. We inferred the methane emissions of this event based on surface in situ observations using two inversion methods and two meteorological reanalysis datasets, supplemented with satellite-based observations. We conclude that approximately 220 ± 30 Gg of methane was released from September 26 to October 1, 2022.

A comprehensive estimate of recent carbon sinks in China using both top-down and bottom-up approaches.

Atmospheric inversions use measurements of atmospheric CO2 gradients to constrain regional surface fluxes. Current inversions indicate a net terrestrial CO2 sink in China between 0.16 and 0.35 PgC/yr. The uncertainty of these estimates is as large as the mean because the atmospheric network historically contained only one high altitude station in China. Here, we revisit the calculation of the terrestrial CO2 flux in China, excluding emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production, by using two inversions with three new CO2 monitoring stations in China as well as aircraft observations over Asia. We estimate a net terrestrial CO2 uptake of 0.39-0.51 PgC/yr with a mean of 0.45 PgC/yr in 2006-2009. After considering the lateral transport of carbon in air and water and international trade, the annual mean carbon sink is adjusted to 0.35 PgC/yr. To evaluate this top-down estimate, we constructed an independent bottom-up estimate based on ecosystem data, and giving a net land sink of 0.33 PgC/yr. This demonstrates closure between the top-down and bottom-up estimates. Both top-down and bottom-up estimates give a higher carbon sink than previous estimates made for the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting a trend towards increased uptake by land ecosystems in China.