Predicting second breast cancer among women with primary breast cancer using machine learning algorithms, a population-based observational study.

Breast cancer survivors often experience recurrence or a second primary cancer. We developed an automated approach to predict the occurrence of any second breast cancer (SBC) using patient-level data and explored the generalizability of the models with an external validation data source. Breast cancer patients from the cancer registry of Zurich, Zug, Schaffhausen, Schwyz (N = 3213; training dataset) and the cancer registry of Ticino (N = 1073; external validation dataset), diagnosed between 2010 and 2018, were used for model training and validation, respectively. Machine learning (ML) methods, namely a feed-forward neural network (ANN), logistic regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were employed for classification. The best-performing model was selected based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Key characteristics contributing to a high SBC risk were identified. SBC was diagnosed in 6% of all cases. The most important features for SBC prediction were age at incidence, year of birth, stage, and extent of the pathological primary tumor. The ANN model had the highest area under the ROC curve with 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.750.82) in the training data and 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79) in the external validation data. Investigating the generalizability of different ML algorithms, we found that the ANN generalized better than the other models on the external validation data. This research is a first step towards the development of an automated tool that could assist clinicians in the identification of women at high risk of developing an SBC and potentially preventing it.

Identifying classes of the pain, fatigue, and depression symptom cluster in long-term prostate cancer survivors-results from the multi-regional Prostate Cancer Survivorship Study in Switzerland (PROCAS).

PURPOSE: Aside from urological and sexual problems, long-term (≥5 years after initial diagnosis) prostate cancer (PC) survivors might suffer from pain, fatigue, and depression. These concurrent symptoms can form a cluster. In this study, we aimed to investigate classes of this symptom cluster in long-term PC survivors, to classify PC survivors accordingly, and to explore associations between classes of this cluster and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: Six hundred fifty-three stage T1-T3N0M0 survivors were identified from the Prostate Cancer Survivorship in Switzerland (PROCAS) study. Fatigue was assessed with the EORTC QLQ-FA12, depressive symptoms with the MHI-5, and pain with the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire. Latent class analysis was used to derive cluster classes. Factors associated with the derived classes were determined using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Three classes were identified: class 1 (61.4%) - "low pain, low physical and emotional fatigue, moderate depressive symptoms"; class 2 (15.1%) - "low physical fatigue and pain, moderate emotional fatigue, high depressive symptoms"; class 3 (23.5%) - high scores for all symptoms. Survivors in classes 2 and 3 were more likely to be physically inactive, report a history of depression or some other specific comorbidity, be treated with radiation therapy, and have worse HRQoL outcomes compared to class 1. CONCLUSION: Three distinct classes of the pain, fatigue, and depression cluster were identified, which are associated with treatment, comorbidities, lifestyle factors, and HRQoL outcomes. Improving classification of PC survivors according to severity of multiple symptoms could assist in developing interventions tailored to survivors' needs.

Geographical variation in malignant and benign/borderline brain and CNS tumor incidence: a comparison between a high-income and a middle-income country.

PURPOSE: There is large variability in reported incidence rates of primary brain/CNS tumors across the world, with mostly higher rates in higher-income countries. The aim was to compare malignant and benign brain/CNS tumor incidence between Zurich (Switzerland), a high-income country, and Georgia, a lower middle-income country. METHODS: For the period March 2009 to February 2012, we extracted the following tumors based on topography according to ICD-O3: C70.0-C72.9, and C75.1 (pituitary gland). Data were categorized into histology groups based on the WHO 2007 histological classification. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by subgroups. RESULTS: We included 1104 and 1476 cases of primary brain/CNS tumors for Zurich and Georgia, respectively. Mean age of patients was significantly lower in Georgia compared to Zurich (50.0 versus 58.3 years). Overall age-standardized incidence rates for malignant and benign brain/CNS tumors were 10.5 (95% CI 9.9-11.0) for Georgia and 23.3 (95% CI 21.9-24.7) for Zurich with a ratio of benign to malignant tumors of 1.656 for Georgia and 1.946 for Zurich. The most frequent histology types were meningiomas in both regions, followed by glioblastomas in Zurich, but pituitary tumors in Georgia. CONCLUSION: Age-adjusted incidence rates of brain/CNS tumors were considerably higher in Zurich compared to Georgia, both for benign and malignant tumors, which is in line with other studies reporting higher rates in high-income than in low- and middle-income countries. The frequency distribution may be related to differences in diagnosing techniques and the population age structure.

Occupational physical activity and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality: Results from two longitudinal studies in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Research regarding the effects of occupational physical activity on health remains inconsistent. We analyzed the association of occupational physical activity with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: We analyzed two cohorts with baseline assessments from 1977 to 1993 ("National Research Program 1A" (NRP1A) and "MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease" [MONICA]) and mortality follow-up until 2015 using adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: We included 4396 NRP1A participants (137 793 person-years of follow-up, 1541 deaths) and 5780 MONICA participants (135 410 person-years, 1158 deaths). All-cause mortality was higher for men in the high compared with the low occupational physical activity category according to NRP1A (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.05-1.50). CVD mortality was higher for men in the moderate compared with the low occupational physical activity category according to MONICA (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.03-1.91). Results for women were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We observed higher total and CVD mortality risks in men with higher occupational physical activity but inconsistent results for women and across cohorts.

Trends in prostate cancer incidence between 1996 and 2013 in two Swiss regions by age, grade, and T-stage.

PURPOSE: To investigate differences in prostate cancer incidence between two distinct Swiss regions from 1996 to 2013 stratified by age group, grade, and T-stage. METHODS: The dataset included 17,495 men living in Zurich and 3,505 men living in Ticino, diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1996 and 2013. We computed age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years using the European Standard Population. Trends were assessed using JoinPoint regression analysis Software. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rates were generally higher in Zurich compared to Ticino but the difference decreased over time. Incidence rates increased significantly up to 2002 in Zurich and 2007 in Ticino and then decreased. A statistically significant increase was observed for men aged < 65 years, for grade 3 tumors, and for T-stage 2 and 3 tumors. The largest decrease was seen for grade 1 tumors. Furthermore, the incidence of tumors of unknown grade or T-stage decreased significantly in both regions. CONCLUSIONS: The trends in prostate cancer incidence rates were similar in both regions, although on a higher level in Zurich compared to Ticino. However, the difference decreased over time. The distribution of T-stage and grade did not explain the difference in incidence rates. Different use of opportunistic screening may play a role.

Socioeconomic and demographic disparities in breast cancer stage at presentation and survival: A Swiss population-based study.

We explored socioeconomic and demographic disparities in breast cancer (BC) stage at presentation and survival in a Swiss population-based sample of female BC patients linked to the census-based Swiss National Cohort. Tumor stage was classified according to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program summary stage (in situ/localized/regional/distant). We used highest education level attained to estimate SEP (low/middle/high). Further demographic characteristics of interest were age at presentation (30-49/50-69/70-84 years), living in a canton with organized screening (yes/no), urbanity of residence (urban/peri-urban/rural), civil status (single/married/widowed/divorced) and nationality (Swiss/non-Swiss). We used ordered logistic regression models to analyze factors associated with BC stage at presentation and competing risk regression models for factors associated with survival. Odds of later-stage BC were significantly increased for low SEP women (odds ratio 1.19, 95%CI 1.06-1.34) compared to women of high SEP. Further, women living in a canton without organized screening program, women diagnosed outside the targeted screening age and single/widowed/divorced women were more often diagnosed at later stages. Women of low SEP experienced an increased risk of dying from BC (sub-hazard ratio 1.22, 95%CI 1.05-1.43) compared to women of high SEP. Notably, these survival inequalities could not be explained by socioeconomic differences in stage at presentation and/or other sociodemographic factors. It is concerning that these social gradients have been observed in a country with universal health insurance coverage, high health expenditures and one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

Sex-specific effects of leisure-time physical activity on cause-specific mortality in NHANES III.

Associations between leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and all-cause mortality seem quite strong, however, less is known about the association of LTPA and cause-specific mortality. To examine this association data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), including 15,307 individuals of the non-institutionalized civilian United States population, were used. Data were collected from 1988 to 1994 with a mortality follow-up until 2006. LTPA was assessed during home interviews in which participants specified their LTPA and the performed frequency during the past month. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to analyze the risk of cause-specific mortality regarding LTPA. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. An inverse association of LTPA with CVD mortality was observed for men and women combined for irregular (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.51-0.85), and for regular activity (HR 0.58; 95% CI 0.47-0.72). An inverse association of LTPA with CVD mortality was observed only in women for irregular (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49-0.84) and for regular activity (HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.43-0.72). In men, no significant associations were seen. For mortality caused by respiratory diseases, a decreased mortality was also observed in the combined group (men and women) but after separating according to sex a decreased mortality was only observed in women. No statistically significant association of LTPA with cancer mortality was observed. Our data support an inverse association between LTPA and CVD and respiratory disease mortality in women, but not in men, and no associations with cancer.

Physical activity is associated with lower arterial stiffness in older adults: results of the SAPALDIA 3 Cohort Study.

Associations of physical activity (PA) intensity with arterial stiffness in older adults at the population level are insufficiently studied. We examined cross-sectional associations of self-reported PA intensities with arterial stiffness in elderly Caucasians of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults. Mixed central and peripheral arterial stiffness was measured oscillometrically by the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). The self-reported International Physical Activity Questionnaire long version was administered to classify each subject's PA level. We used univariable and multivariable mixed linear and logistic regression models for analyses in 1908 persons aged 50 years and older. After adjustment for several confounders moderate, vigorous and total PA were inversely associated with CAVI (p = 0.02-0.03). BaPWV showed negative and marginally significant associations with vigorous and moderate PA (each p = 0.06), but not with total PA (p = 0.28). Increased arterial stiffness (CAVI ≥ 9, upper tertile) was inversely and significantly associated with vigorous PA [odds ratio (OR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-0.88], and marginally significantly with total PA (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-1.02) and moderate PA (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56-1.01). The odds ratio for baPWV ≥ 14.4 was 0.67 (95% CI 0.48-0.93) across the vigorous PA levels, and was non-significant across the total (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.66-1.23) and moderate PA levels (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.28). In this general Caucasian population of older adults higher levels especially of vigorous PA were associated with lower arterial stiffness. These data support the importance of PA for improving cardiovascular health in elderly people.

Long-term physical activity is associated with reduced arterial stiffness in older adults: longitudinal results of the SAPALDIA cohort study.

BACKGROUND: longitudinal analyses of physical activity (PA) and arterial stiffness in populations of older adults are scarce. We examined associations between long-term change of PA and arterial stiffness in the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA). METHODS: we assessed PA in SAPALDIA 2 (2001-03) and SAPALDIA 3 (2010-11) using a short questionnaire with a cut-off of at least 150 min of moderate-to-vigorous PA per week for sufficient activity. Arterial stiffness was measured oscillometrically by means of the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) in SAPALDIA 3. We used multivariable mixed linear regression models adjusted for several potential confounders in 2,605 persons aged 50-81. RESULTS: adjusted means of baPWV were significantly lower in persons with sufficient moderate-to-vigorous PA (i) in SAPALDIA 2 but not in SAPALDIA 3 (P = 0.048) and (ii) in both surveys (P = 0.001) compared with persons with insufficient activity in both surveys. There was a significant interaction between sex and the level of change in PA concerning baPWV (P = 0.03). The triples of parameter estimates describing the association between level of PA change and baPWV were not significantly different between the two sex-specific models (P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: keeping up or adopting a physically active lifestyle was associated with lower arterial stiffness in older adults after a follow-up of almost a decade. Increasing the proportion of older adults adhering to PA recommendations incorporating also vigorous PA may have a considerable impact on vascular health at older age and may contribute to healthy ageing in general.

Associations between objective and self-reported physical activity and vitamin D serum levels in the US population.

PURPOSE: Both low levels of vitamin D and of physical activity are associated with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality. There is some evidence based on self-reported activity levels that physically more active individuals have higher vitamin D serum levels. The aim was to investigate associations between objectively measured and self-reported physical activity, respectively, and vitamin D serum concentrations in the US population. METHODS: Data from NHANES 2003-2006 (n = 6,370, aged ≥ 18 years) were analyzed using multiple regression analyses. A total of 6,370 individuals aged 18 years and older with valid data on vitamin D serum levels and physical activity were included. Objective physical activity was assessed using accelerometers; self-reported physical activity was based on the NHANES physical activity questionnaire. RESULTS: An increase of 10 min of objectively measured and self-reported moderate-to-vigorous activities per day was associated with an increase in circulating vitamin D of 0.32 ng/ml (95% CI 0.17, 0.48) and of 0.18 ng/ml (95% CI 0.12, 0.23), respectively. The odds ratio for being vitamin D deficient (< 20 ng/ml) if being insufficiently active compared with being sufficiently active was 1.32 (1.11, 1.57). Associations were not stronger for self-reported outdoor activities compared with indoor activities. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity may be a way to achieve higher vitamin D serum levels in the population. Factors other than sun exposure that may be responsible for higher vitamin D levels in more active individuals need further investigation.

Impact of different domains of physical activity on cause-specific mortality: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to examine the associations between different domains of physical activity and all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. METHODS: Participants (n=17,663, aged 16-92 years) of two general population health studies conducted between 1977 and 1993 in Switzerland were included. Physical activity was assessed at baseline in the domains of commuting to work, work-related physical activity, and leisure-time physical activity (including leisure-time activity level and sport activity). A median follow-up time of 20.2 years was obtained with anonymous record linkage providing 3878 deaths (CVD: 1357; cancer: 1351). Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were calculated. RESULTS: There were no significant associations between commuting and work-related physical activities, respectively, and mortality. Leisure-time activity level was associated with all-cause mortality in men [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.63-0.89] and women [HR 0.82 (0.74-0.91)], with CVD mortality in women only [HR 0.79 (0.67-0.94)] and with cancer mortality in men only [HR 0.63 (0.47-0.86)]. Sport activity was associated with all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in men [HR ranged between 0.76 (0.63-0.92) and 0.85 (0.76-0.95)], but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: These results underline the public health relevance of physical activity for the prevention of CVD and cancer, especially regarding leisure-time physical activity.

What physical activity surveillance needs: validity of a single-item questionnaire.

BACKGROUND: Self-report instruments to assess physical activity are still the most feasible option in many population-wide surveys, and often need to be very short owing to resource constraints. The aim of this study was to test the criterion validity of a single-item physical activity measure using accelerometers and to compare its measurement properties by gender, age group (including older adults) and language region. METHODS: A validation study was carried out within the second follow-up of a large Swiss cohort study (Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Disease in Adults, SAPALDIA, n=208) and included an additional convenient sample (n=110). Participants wore an accelerometer over eight consecutive days and then completed the single-item measure. Spearman's rank-order correlations were used to assess the criterion validity. RESULTS: Physical activity levels were higher in men, younger individuals and those from the German-speaking part of Switzerland. Correlation coefficients for the number of days with at least 30 min of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity according to the single item and different accelerometer activity outcomes ranged from 0.40 to 0.54. Correlations were higher for women, younger individuals and participants from the French-speaking and the Italian-speaking parts. CONCLUSIONS: The single-item physical activity measure performed at least as well as other physical activity questionnaires. The differences in criterion validity between sub groups indicate that factors such as gender and age should be taken into account when developing physical activity questionnaires and in future validation studies.

Dispersal synchronizes giant kelp forests.

Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Net survival of women diagnosed with breast tumours: a population-based study in Switzerland.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: Although the incidence of breast carcinoma in situ has been increasing, the prognosis of breast carcinoma in situ patients has not been extensively investigated. Thus, we aimed to compare the characteristics of invasive breast tumours based on whether or not they were preceded by a breast carcinoma in situ and to estimate the 5-year net survival of patients diagnosed with different breast tumours. METHODS: Data from women diagnosed with breast tumours between 2003 and 2016 were used in our analyses. Net survival analyses were performed using inverse probability of censoring weights (nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator). Under certain assumptions, differences in survival between the cancer population and the general population can be considered to be attributable to the cancer diagnosis (NS). RESULTS: Descriptive observation of tumour characteristics indicated that invasive breast tumours following a breast carcinoma in situ were more frequently detected at an earlier stage and had less missing information in tumour-specific variables, compared to invasive breast tumours not preceded by a breast carcinoma in situ. Breast carcinoma in situ patients had a 5-year net survival of 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.03), whereas patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer without a recorded breast carcinoma in situ had a 5-year net survival of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.88-0.90). Patients diagnosed first with breast carcinoma in situ and then with invasive breast cancer had a 5-year net survival of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-1.01). CONCLUSION: Invasive breast tumours that were preceded by a breast carcinoma in situ were detected more frequently at an earlier stage, compared to those that were not. The estimated 5-year net survival of patients with breast tumours was good.

Time-trends and age and stage differences in 5-year relative survival for common cancer types by sex in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Survival trends help to evaluate the progress made to reduce the burden of cancer. The aim was to estimate the trends in 5-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, lung, colorectal cancer and skin melanoma in the time periods 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2015 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. Furthermore, we investigated relative survival differences by TNM stage and age group. METHODS: Data from the Cancer Registry of Zurich was used from 1980 to and including 2015, including incident cases of breast (N = 26,060), prostate (N= 23,858), colorectal (N= 19,305), lung cancer (N= 16,858) and skin melanoma (N= 9780) with follow-up until 31 December 2020. The cohort approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival increased significantly between 1980 and 1989, and 2010 and2015: from 0.70 to 0.89 for breast, from 0.60 to 0.92 for prostate, from 0.09 to 0.23 (men) and from 0.10 to 0.27 (women) for lung, from 0.46 to 0.66 (men) and from 0.48 to 0.68 (women) for colorectal cancer, and from 0.74 to 0.94 (men) and from 0.86 to 0.96 (women) for skin melanoma. Survival for stage IV tumors was considerably lower compared to lower-staged tumors for all cancer types. Furthermore, relative survival was similar for the age groups <80 years but lower for patients aged 80 years and older. CONCLUSION: The observed increasing trends in survival are encouraging and likely reflect raised awareness around cancer, improved diagnostic methods, and improved treatments. The fact that stage I tumor patients have generally high relative survival reflects the efforts made regarding early detection.

Retrospective analysis of the uptake of active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer in Zurich, Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer closely monitors patients conservatively instead of the pursuit of active treatment to reduce overtreatment of insignificant disease. Since 2009, active surveillance has been recommended as the primary management option in the European Association of Urology guidelines for low-risk disease. The present study aimed to investigate the use and uptake of active surveillance over 10 years in our certified prostate cancer centre (University Hospital of Zurich) compared with those derived from the cancer registry of the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively identified all men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer at our institution and from the cancer registry of the canton of Zurich from 2009 to 2018. The primary treatment of each patient was recorded. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the use of different treatments in our centre. The results were compared with those derived from the cancer registry. RESULTS: A total of 3393 men with low-risk prostate cancer were included in this study (University Hospital of Zurich: n = 262; cancer registry: n = 3131). In the University Hospital of Zurich and cancer registry cohorts, 146 (55.7%) and 502 (16%) men underwent active surveillance, respectively. The proportions of local treatment [115 (43.9%) vs 2220 (71%)] and androgen deprivation therapy [0 (0%) vs 43 (1.4%)] were distinctly lower in the University Hospital of Zurich cohort than in the cancer registry cohort. The uptake of active surveillance over the years was high in the University Hospital of Zurich cohort (35.4% in 2009 and 88.2% in 2018) but only marginal in the cancer registry cohort (12.2% in 2009 and 16.2% in 2018). CONCLUSION: Despite clear guideline recommendations, active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer is still widely underused. Our analysis showed that access to a certified interdisciplinary tumour board significantly increases the use of active surveillance.

A risk model for prediction of diagnosis of cancer after ischemic stroke.

It remains controversial which characteristics may predict occult cancer in stroke patients. Characteristics of patients with ischemic stroke registered in the Zurich Swiss Stroke Registry (2014 to 2016) were tested for associations with cancer diagnosis after stroke with consideration of death as competing risk for cancer diagnosis. Among 1157 patients, 34 (3%) and 55 patients (5%) were diagnosed with cancer within 1 and 3 years after stroke. Levels of white blood cells (WBC) > 9,600/µl (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 3.68, p = 0.014), platelets > 400,000/µl (SHR 7.71, p = 0.001), and d-dimers ≥ 3 mg/l (SHR 3.67, p = 0.007) were independently associated with cancer diagnosis within 1 year after stroke. Occurrence of ischemic lesions in ≥ 2 vascular territories not attributed to cardioembolic etiology was associated with cancer diagnosed within 1 year after stroke in univariable analysis (SHR 3.69, p = 0.001). The area under the curve of a score from these parameters (score sum 0-4) was 0.73. A score of ≥ 2 had a sensitivity of 43% and specificity of 92% for prediction of cancer diagnosis within 1 year after stroke. We suggest further validation of a score of WBC, platelets, d-dimers and multiple ischemic lesions without cardioembolic stroke etiology for prediction of cancer diagnosis after stroke.

Stroke-associated infections in patients with and without cancer.

Background: Cancer in stroke patients is associated with higher levels of inflammatory biomarkers and unfavorable poststroke outcomes. We thus explored whether there is a link between cancer and stroke-associated infections. Methods: Medical records of patients with ischemic stroke in 2014-2016 registered in the Swiss Stroke Registry of Zurich were retrospectively analyzed. Incidence, characteristics, treatment, and outcome of stroke-associated infections diagnosed within 7 days after stroke onset were tested for an association with cancer. Results: Among 1181 patients with ischemic stroke, 102 patients with cancer were identified. Stroke-associated infections occurred in 179 and 19 patients (17% and 19%) without and with cancer (P = .60), respectively, among them pneumonia in 95 and 10 patients (9% and 10%) and urinary tract infections in 68 and 9 patients (6% and 9%) (P = .74 and P = .32). Use of antibiotics was similar between groups. Levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) (P < .001), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (P = .014) and procalcitonin (P = .015) were higher and levels of albumin (P = .042) and protein (P = .031) were lower in patients with cancer than without cancer. Among patients without cancer, higher CRP (P < .001), ESR (P < .001) and procalcitonin (P = .04) and lower albumin (P < .001) were associated with stroke-associated infections. Among cancer patients with or without infections, no significant differences in these parameters were observed. In-hospital mortality was associated with cancer (P < .001) and with stroke-associated infections (P < .001). However, among patients with stroke-associated infections, cancer was not associated with in-hospital mortality (P = .24) or 30-day mortality (P = .66). Conclusions: Cancer does not represent a risk factor for stroke-associated infections in this patient cohort.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3).

BACKGROUND: Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology. METHODS: We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. RESULTS: The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Feasibility of an individualised, task-oriented, video-supported home exercise programme for arm function in patients in the subacute phase after stroke: protocol of a randomised controlled pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke rehabilitation guidelines suggest a high-frequency task-oriented training at high intensity. A targeted and self-paced daily training with intermittent supervision is recommended to improve patients' self-management and functional output. So far, there is conflicting evidence concerning the most effective home-training delivery method. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The purpose of this pilot study is to compare the feasibility and preliminary effects of task-oriented home-exercises in patients in the subacute stage after stroke. Twenty-four patients will be randomised (1:1) to a Video group (a) or Paper group (b) of an individualised, task-oriented home-training (50 min, 6×/week, for 4 weeks) based on Wulf and Lewthwaite's Optimizing Performance Through Intrinsic Motivation and Attention for Learning theory of motor learning. Patient-relevant goals will be identified using Goal Attainment Scaling and exercises progressively adapted. Semistructured interviews and a logbook will be used to monitor adherence, arm use and acceptability. Primary outcome will be the feasibility of the methods and a full-scale trial employing predefined feasibility criteria (recruitment, retention and adherence rates, patients' satisfaction with the home-exercise programme and their progress, affected hand use and acceptance of the intervention). Assessed at baseline, post intervention and 4-week follow-up, secondary outcomes include self-perceived hand and arm use, actual upper extremity function and dexterity, hand strength, independence in activities of daily living and health-related quality of life. Interview data will be analysed using qualitative content analysis. Medians (ranges) will be reported for ordinal data, means (SD) for continuous and frequency (percentage) for nominal data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study follows the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials-Patient-Reported Outcome (PRO) Extension guideline. Ethical approval was received from the Ethics Committee of the Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria (1304/2020). Written informed consent will be obtained from all participants prior to data collection. Study results will be disseminated to participating patients, patient organisations, via the clinic's homepage, relevant conferences and peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DRKS-ID: DRKS00023395.Study protocol, second revision, 5 December 2021.