Antibody Status and Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Health Care Workers.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the presence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the risk of subsequent reinfection remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in seropositive and seronegative health care workers attending testing of asymptomatic and symptomatic staff at Oxford University Hospitals in the United Kingdom. Baseline antibody status was determined by anti-spike (primary analysis) and anti-nucleocapsid IgG assays, and staff members were followed for up to 31 weeks. We estimated the relative incidence of PCR-positive test results and new symptomatic infection according to antibody status, adjusting for age, participant-reported gender, and changes in incidence over time. RESULTS: A total of 12,541 health care workers participated and had anti-spike IgG measured; 11,364 were followed up after negative antibody results and 1265 after positive results, including 88 in whom seroconversion occurred during follow-up. A total of 223 anti-spike-seronegative health care workers had a positive PCR test (1.09 per 10,000 days at risk), 100 during screening while they were asymptomatic and 123 while symptomatic, whereas 2 anti-spike-seropositive health care workers had a positive PCR test (0.13 per 10,000 days at risk), and both workers were asymptomatic when tested (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.44; P = 0.002). There were no symptomatic infections in workers with anti-spike antibodies. Rate ratios were similar when the anti-nucleocapsid IgG assay was used alone or in combination with the anti-spike IgG assay to determine baseline status. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of anti-spike or anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was associated with a substantially reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the ensuing 6 months. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.).

Evaluation of a COVID-19 fundamental nursing care guideline versus usual care: The COVID-NURSE cluster randomized controlled trial.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of usual care plus a fundamental nursing care guideline compared to usual care only for patients in hospital with COVID-19 on patient experience, care quality, functional ability, treatment outcomes, nurses' moral distress, patient health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: Parallel two-arm, cluster-level randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Between 18th January and 20th December 2021, we recruited (i) adults aged 18 years and over with COVID-19, excluding those invasively ventilated, admitted for at least three days or nights in UK Hospital Trusts; (ii) nurses caring for them. We randomly assigned hospitals to use a fundamental nursing care guideline and usual care or usual care only. Our patient-reported co-primary outcomes were the Relational Aspects of Care Questionnaire and four scales from the Quality from the Patient Perspective Questionnaire. We undertook intention-to-treat analyses. RESULTS: We randomized 15 clusters and recruited 581 patient and 418 nurse participants. Primary outcome data were available for 570-572 (98.1%-98.5%) patient participants in 14 clusters. We found no evidence of between-group differences on any patient, nurse or economic outcomes. We found between-group differences over time, in favour of the intervention, for three of our five co-primary outcomes, and a significant interaction on one primary patient outcome for ethnicity (white British vs. other) and allocated group in favour of the intervention for the 'other' ethnicity subgroup. CONCLUSION: We did not detect an overall difference in patient experience for a fundamental nursing care guideline compared to usual care. We have indications the guideline may have aided sustaining good practice over time and had a more positive impact on non-white British patients' experience of care. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND/OR PATIENT CARE: We cannot recommend the wholescale implementation of our guideline into routine nursing practice. Further intervention development, feasibility, pilot and evaluation studies are required. IMPACT: Fundamental nursing care drives patient experience but is severely impacted in pandemics. Our guideline was not superior to usual care, albeit it may sustain good practice and have a positive impact on non-white British patients' experience of care. REPORTING METHOD: CONSORT and CONSERVE. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Patients with experience of hospitalization with COVID-19 were involved in guideline development and writing, trial management and interpretation of findings.

Evaluation of a complex intervention for prisoners with common mental health problems, near to and after release: the Engager randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many male prisoners have significant mental health problems, including anxiety and depression. High proportions struggle with homelessness and substance misuse. AIMS: This study aims to evaluate whether the Engager intervention improves mental health outcomes following release. METHOD: The design is a parallel randomised superiority trial that was conducted in the North West and South West of England (ISRCTN11707331). Men serving a prison sentence of 2 years or less were individually allocated 1:1 to either the intervention (Engager plus usual care) or usual care alone. Engager included psychological and practical support in prison, on release and for 3-5 months in the community. The primary outcome was the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation Outcome Measure (CORE-OM), 6 months after release. Primary analysis compared groups based on intention-to-treat (ITT). RESULTS: In total, 280 men were randomised out of the 396 who were potentially eligible and agreed to participate; 105 did not meet the mental health inclusion criteria. There was no mean difference in the ITT complete case analysis between groups (92 in each arm) for change in the CORE-OM score (1.1, 95% CI -1.1 to 3.2, P = 0.325) or secondary analyses. There were no consistent clinically significant between-group differences for secondary outcomes. Full delivery was not achieved, with 77% (108/140) receiving community-based contact. CONCLUSIONS: Engager is the first trial of a collaborative care intervention adapted for prison leavers. The intervention was not shown to be effective using standard outcome measures. Further testing of different support strategies for prison with mental health problems is needed.

Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a highly common and recurrent condition. Predicting who is at most risk of relapse or recurrence can inform clinical practice. Applying machine-learning methods to Individual Participant Data (IPD) can be promising to improve the accuracy of risk predictions. METHODS: Individual data of four Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) evaluating antidepressant treatment compared to psychological interventions with tapering ([Formula: see text]) were used to identify predictors of relapse and/or recurrence. Ten baseline predictors were assessed. Decision trees with and without gradient boosting were applied. To study the robustness of decision-tree classifications, we also performed a complementary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The combination of age, age of onset of depression, and depression severity significantly enhances the prediction of relapse risk when compared to classifiers solely based on depression severity. The studied decision trees can (i) identify relapse patients at intake with an accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of about 55% (without gradient boosting) and 58% (with gradient boosting), and (ii) slightly outperform classifiers that are based on logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: Decision tree classifiers based on multiple-rather than single-risk indicators may be useful for developing treatment stratification strategies. These classification models have the potential to contribute to the development of methods aimed at effectively prioritizing treatment for those individuals who require it the most. Our results also underline the existing gaps in understanding how to accurately predict depressive relapse.

Systematic Review to Identify Predictors of Treatment Response to Neuromodulation in Patients With Neuropathic Pain-Protocol.

OBJECTIVES: Patients who suffer from long-term, neuropathic pain that proves refractory to conventional medical management are high consumers of health care resources and experience poorer physical and mental health than people with other forms of pain. Pharmacologic treatments have adverse effects; nonpharmacologic interventions have limitations. Spinal cord stimulation (SCS) is an effective treatment for neuropathic pain, although 30% to 40% of patients fail to achieve acceptable levels of pain relief. There are currently no objective methods to predict the success of SCS to treat neuropathic pain, and therefore, it is important to understand which patient factors may be predictive of a lack of response to SCS, to inform future patient treatment options. This study proposes a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies to examine these predictive factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Several bibliographic databases will be searched to identify relevant studies published since 2012 that provide data on patient characteristics (eg, age, gender, pain severity) as predictors of SCS outcomes of pain, function, and health-related quality of life. Two independent reviewers will screen citations; data will be extracted after full-text screening. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. RESULTS: A formal quantitative synthesis is planned in which data from studies with the same predictive factors are available; this will be considered for pooling into separate meta-analyses. In cases of high heterogeneity or inconsistency in the data, subgroup analysis will be conducted. CONCLUSIONS: This study seeks to provide a contemporary review of patient predictors of success of neuromodulation for neuropathic pain. We anticipate that findings may guide the use of neuromodulation in patient subgroups and the design and reporting of future clinical studies in this field.

An Observational Cohort Study on the Incidence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection and B.1.1.7 Variant Infection in Healthcare Workers by Antibody and Vaccination Status.

BACKGROUND: Natural and vaccine-induced immunity will play a key role in controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 variants have the potential to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity. METHODS: In a longitudinal cohort study of healthcare workers (HCWs) in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, we investigated the protection from symptomatic and asymptomatic polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred by vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCOV-19) and prior infection (determined using anti-spike antibody status), using Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, temporal changes in incidence and role. We estimated protection conferred after 1 versus 2 vaccinations and from infections with the B.1.1.7 variant identified using whole genome sequencing. RESULTS: In total, 13 109 HCWs participated; 8285 received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (1407 two doses), and 2738 the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (49 two doses). Compared to unvaccinated seronegative HCWs, natural immunity and 2 vaccination doses provided similar protection against symptomatic infection: no HCW vaccinated twice had symptomatic infection, and incidence was 98% lower in seropositive HCWs (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.02 [95% confidence interval {CI} < .01-.18]). Two vaccine doses or seropositivity reduced the incidence of any PCR-positive result with or without symptoms by 90% (0.10 [95% CI .02-.38]) and 85% (0.15 [95% CI .08-.26]), respectively. Single-dose vaccination reduced the incidence of symptomatic infection by 67% (0.33 [95% CI .21-.52]) and any PCR-positive result by 64% (0.36 [95% CI .26-.50]). There was no evidence of differences in immunity induced by natural infection and vaccination for infections with S-gene target failure and B.1.1.7. CONCLUSIONS: Natural infection resulting in detectable anti-spike antibodies and 2 vaccine doses both provide robust protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, including against the B.1.1.7 variant.

Time trends in autism diagnosis over 20 years: a UK population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorder is a diagnosis that is increasingly applied; however, previous studies have conflicting findings whether rates of diagnosis rates continue to grow in the UK. This study tested whether the proportion of people receiving a new autism diagnosis has been increasing over a twenty-year period, both overall and by subgroups. METHOD: Population-based study utilizing the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database, which contains patients registered with practices contributing data to the CPRD between 1998 and 2018 (N = 6,786,212 in 1998 to N = 9,594,598 in 2018). 65,665 patients had a diagnosis of autism recorded in 2018. Time trend of new (incident) cases of autism diagnosis was plotted for all, and stratified by gender, diagnostic subtypes, and developmental stage: infancy and preschool, 0-5 years old; childhood, 6-11 years old; adolescence, 12-19 years old; adults, over 19 years old. RESULTS: There was a 787%, exponential increase in recorded incidence of autism diagnoses between 1998 and 2018; R2 = 0.98, exponentiated coefficient = 1.07, 95% CI [1.06, 1.08], p < .001. The increase in diagnoses was greater for females than males (exponentiated interaction coefficient = 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.03], p < .001) and moderated by age band, with the greatest rises in diagnostic incidence among adults (exponentiated interaction coefficient = 1.06, 95% CI [1.04, 1.07], p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Increases could be due to growth in prevalence or, more likely, increased reporting and application of diagnosis. Rising diagnosis among adults, females and higher functioning individuals suggest augmented recognition underpins these changes.

The value of social practice theory for implementation science: learning from a theory-based mixed methods process evaluation of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Although there is trial evidence that complex interventions are effective for the self-management of heart failure, little evidence supports their effectiveness in routine practice. We used Social Practice Theory to guide a Type 1 Hybrid Trial: a mixed methods process evaluation of a complex intervention for heart failure. The objective of this paper is to explore the value of Social Practice Theory for implementation science. METHODS: Social Practice Theory informed a mixed methods process evaluation of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial of a 12 week home-based intervention to optimise self-care support for people with heart failure and their caregivers - Rehabilitation EnAblement in Chronic Heart Failure (REACH-HF). Interviews were conducted with 19 people with heart failure and 17 caregivers at 4 months and 12 months after recruitment into the trial. Cases were constructed at the level of the individual, couple, facilitator and centre; and included multi-modal process and outcome data. Evaluative coding and subsequent within- and cross-case analyses enabled the development of a typology of relationships linking fidelity of intervention delivery and tailoring of content to individual needs and concerns. Social Practice Theory was used to interrogate the relationships between elements of the intervention and their implementation. RESULTS: Of 216 trial participants, 107 were randomised to the intervention (REACH-HF plus usual care). The intervention was most effective when fidelity was high and delivery was tailored to the individual's needs, but less effective when both tailoring and fidelity were low. Theory-based analysis enabled us to model complex relationships between intervention elements (competencies, materials and meanings) and social context. The findings illustrate how intervention fidelity and tailoring are contextual and how the effectiveness of the REACH-HF intervention depended on both optimal alignment and implementation of these elements. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrates the utility of theory-based analysis which integrates data from multiple sources to highlight contexts and circumstances in which interventions work best. Social Practice Theory provides a framework for guiding and analysing the processes by which a complex intervention is evaluated in a clinical trial, and has the potential to guide context-specific implementation strategies for clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, IISRCTN86234930 . Registered 13th November 2014.

Cost and Outcome of Behavioural Activation versus Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Depression (COBRA): a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common, debilitating, and costly disorder. Many patients request psychological therapy, but the best-evidenced therapy-cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT)-is complex and costly. A simpler therapy-behavioural activation (BA)-might be as effective and cheaper than is CBT. We aimed to establish the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of BA compared with CBT for adults with depression. METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial, we recruited adults aged 18 years or older meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV criteria for major depressive disorder from primary care and psychological therapy services in Devon, Durham, and Leeds (UK). We excluded people who were receiving psychological therapy, were alcohol or drug dependent, were acutely suicidal or had attempted suicide in the previous 2 months, or were cognitively impaired, or who had bipolar disorder or psychosis or psychotic symptoms. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) remotely using computer-generated allocation (minimisation used; stratified by depression severity [Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) score of <19 vs ≥19], antidepressant use, and recruitment site) to BA from junior mental health workers or CBT from psychological therapists. Randomisation done at the Peninsula Clinical Trials Unit was concealed from investigators. Treatment was given open label, but outcome assessors were masked. The primary outcome was depression symptoms according to the PHQ-9 at 12 months. We analysed all those who were randomly allocated and had complete data (modified intention to treat [mITT]) and also all those who were randomly allocated, had complete data, and received at least eight treatment sessions (per protocol [PP]). We analysed safety in the mITT population. The non-inferiority margin was 1·9 PHQ-9 points. This trial is registered with the ISCRTN registry, number ISRCTN27473954. FINDINGS: Between Sept 26, 2012, and April 3, 2014, we randomly allocated 221 (50%) participants to BA and 219 (50%) to CBT. 175 (79%) participants were assessable for the primary outcome in the mITT population in the BA group compared with 189 (86%) in the CBT group, whereas 135 (61%) were assessable in the PP population in the BA group compared with 151 (69%) in the CBT group. BA was non-inferior to CBT (mITT: CBT 8·4 PHQ-9 points [SD 7·5], BA 8·4 PHQ-9 points [7·0], mean difference 0·1 PHQ-9 points [95% CI -1·3 to 1·5], p=0·89; PP: CBT 7·9 PHQ-9 points [7·3]; BA 7·8 [6·5], mean difference 0·0 PHQ-9 points [-1·5 to 1·6], p=0·99). Two (1%) non-trial-related deaths (one [1%] multidrug toxicity in the BA group and one [1%] cancer in the CBT group) and 15 depression-related, but not treatment-related, serious adverse events (three in the BA group and 12 in the CBT group) occurred in three [2%] participants in the BA group (two [1%] patients who overdosed and one [1%] who self-harmed) and eight (4%) participants in the CBT group (seven [4%] who overdosed and one [1%] who self-harmed). INTERPRETATION: We found that BA, a simpler psychological treatment than CBT, can be delivered by junior mental health workers with less intensive and costly training, with no lesser effect than CBT. Effective psychological therapy for depression can be delivered without the need for costly and highly trained professionals. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

An Exploratory Analysis of the Smoking and Physical Activity Outcomes From a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of an Exercise Assisted Reduction to Stop Smoking Intervention in Disadvantaged Groups.

INTRODUCTION: Economically disadvantaged smokers not intending to stop may benefit from interventions aimed at reducing their smoking. This study assessed the effects of a behavioral intervention promoting an increase in physical activity versus usual care in a pilot randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Disadvantaged smokers who wanted to reduce but not quit were randomized to either a counseling intervention of up to 12 weeks to support smoking reduction and increased physical activity (n = 49) or usual care (n = 50). Data at 16 weeks were collected for various smoking and physical activity outcomes. Primary analyses consisted of an intention to treat analysis based on complete case data. Secondary analyses explored the impact of handling missing data. RESULTS: Compared with controls, intervention smokers were more likely to initiate a quit attempt (36 vs. 10%; odds ratio 5.05, [95% CI: 1.10; 23.15]), and a greater proportion achieved at least 50% reduction in cigarettes smoked (63 vs. 32%; 4.21 [1.32; 13.39]). Postquit abstinence measured by exhaled carbon monoxide at 4-week follow-up showed promising differences between groups (23% vs. 6%; 4.91 [0.80; 30.24]). No benefit of intervention on physical activity was found. Secondary analyses suggested that the standard missing data assumption of "missing" being equivalent to "smoking" may be conservative resulting in a reduced intervention effect. CONCLUSIONS: A smoking reduction intervention for economically disadvantaged smokers which involved personal support to increase physical activity appears to be more effective than usual care in achieving reduction and may promote cessation. The effect does not appear to be influenced by an increase in physical activity.

Telephone triage for management of same-day consultation requests in general practice (the ESTEEM trial): a cluster-randomised controlled trial and cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Telephone triage is increasingly used to manage workload in primary care; however, supporting evidence for this approach is scarce. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost consequences of general practitioner-(GP)-led and nurse-led telephone triage compared with usual care for patients seeking same-day consultations in primary care. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, cluster-randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation between March 1, 2011, and March 31, 2013, at 42 practices in four centres in the UK. Practices were randomly assigned (1:1:1), via a computer-generated randomisation sequence minimised for geographical location, practice deprivation, and practice list size, to either GP-led triage, nurse-led computer-supported triage, or usual care. We included patients who telephoned the practice seeking a same-day face-to-face consultation with a GP. Allocations were concealed from practices until after they had agreed to participate and a stochastic element was included within the minimisation algorithm to maintain concealment. Patients, clinicians, and researchers were not masked to allocation, but practice assignment was concealed from the trial statistician. The primary outcome was primary care workload (patient contacts, including those attending accident and emergency departments) in the 28 days after the first same-day request. Analyses were by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN register, number ISRCTN20687662. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 42 practices to GP triage (n=13), nurse triage (n=15), or usual care (n=14), and 20,990 patients (n=6695 vs 7012 vs 7283) were randomly assigned, of whom 16,211 (77%) patients provided primary outcome data (n=5171 vs 5468 vs 5572). GP triage was associated with a 33% increase in the mean number of contacts per person over 28 days compared with usual care (2·65 [SD 1·74] vs 1·91 [1·43]; rate ratio [RR] 1·33, 95% CI 1·30-1·36), and nurse triage with a 48% increase (2·81 [SD 1·68]; RR 1·48, 95% CI 1·44-1·52). Eight patients died within 7 days of the index request: five in the GP-triage group, two in the nurse-triage group, and one in the usual-care group; however, these deaths were not associated with the trial group or procedures. Although triage interventions were associated with increased contacts, estimated costs over 28 days were similar between all three groups (roughly £75 per patient). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of telephone triage delivered by a GP or nurse was associated with an increase in the number of primary care contacts in the 28 days after a patient's request for a same-day GP consultation, with similar costs to those of usual care. Telephone triage might be useful in aiding the delivery of primary care. The whole-system implications should be assessed when introduction of such a system is considered. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment Programme UK National Institute for Health Research.

Do difficulties in accessing in-hours primary care predict higher use of out-of-hours GP services? Evidence from an English National Patient Survey.

INTRODUCTION: It is believed that some patients are more likely to use out-of-hours primary care services because of difficulties in accessing in-hours care, but substantial evidence about any such association is missing. METHODS: We analysed data from 567,049 respondents to the 2011/2012 English General Practice Patient Survey who reported at least one in-hours primary care consultation in the preceding 6 months. Of those respondents, 7% also reported using out-of-hours primary care. We used logistic regression to explore associations between use of out-of-hours primary care and five measures of in-hours access (ease of getting through on the telephone, ability to see a preferred general practitioner, ability to get an urgent or routine appointment and convenience of opening hours). We illustrated the potential for reduction in use of out-of-hours primary care in a model where access to in-hours care was made optimal. RESULTS: Worse in-hours access was associated with greater use of out-of-hours primary care for each access factor. In multivariable analysis adjusting for access and patient characteristic variables, worse access was independently associated with increased out-of-hours use for all measures except ease of telephone access. Assuming these associations were causal, we estimated that an 11% relative reduction in use of out-of-hours primary care services in England could be achievable if access to in-hours care were optimal. CONCLUSIONS: This secondary quantitative analysis provides evidence for an association between difficulty in accessing in-hours care and use of out-of-hours primary care services. The findings can motivate the development of interventions to improve in-hour access.

Development of Measures to Assess Personal Recovery in Young People Treated in Specialist Mental Health Services.

BACKGROUND: Recovery has become a central concept in mental health service delivery, and several recovery-focused measures exist for adults. The concept's applicability to young people's mental health experience has been neglected, and no measures yet exist. Aim The aim of this work is to develop measures of recovery for use in specialist child and adolescent mental health services. METHOD: On the basis of 21 semi-structured interviews, three recovery measures were devised, one for completion by the young person and two for completion by the parent/carer. Two parent/carer measures were devised in order to assess both their perspective on their child's recovery and their own recovery process. The questionnaires were administered to a UK sample of 47 young people (10-18 years old) with anxiety and depression and their parents, along with a measure used to routinely assess treatment progress and outcome and a measure of self-esteem. RESULTS: All three measures had high internal consistency (alpha ≥ 0.89). Young people's recovery scores were correlated negatively with scores on a measure used to routinely assess treatment progress and outcome (r = -0.75) and positively with self-esteem (r = 0.84). Parent and young persons' reports of the young person's recovery were positively correlated (r = 0.61). Parent report of the young person's recovery and of their own recovery process were positively correlated (r = 0.75). CONCLUSION: The three measures have the potential to be used in mental health services to assess recovery processes in young people with mental health difficulties and correspondence with symptomatic improvement. The measures provide a novel way of capturing the parental/caregiver perspective on recovery and caregivers' own wellbeing. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: No tools exist to evaluate recovery-relevant processes in young people treated in specialist mental health services. This study reports on the development and psychometric evaluation of three self-report recovery-relevant assessments for young people and their caregivers. Findings indicate a high degree of correspondence between young person and caregiver reports of recovery in the former. The recovery assessments correlate inversely with a standardized symptom-focused measure and positively with self-esteem.

Hierarchical network meta-analysis models to address sparsity of events and differing treatment classifications with regard to adverse outcomes.

Meta-analysis for adverse events resulting from medical interventions has many challenges, in part due to small numbers of such events within primary studies. Furthermore, variability in drug dose, potential differences between drugs within the same pharmaceutical class and multiple indications for a specific treatment can all add to the complexity of the evidence base. This paper explores the use of synthesis methods, incorporating mixed treatment comparisons, to estimate the risk of adverse events for a medical intervention, while acknowledging and modelling the complexity of the structure of the evidence base. The motivating example was the effect on malignancy of three anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs (etanercept, adalimumab and infliximab) indicated to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Using data derived from 13 primary studies, a series of meta-analysis models of increasing complexity were applied. Models ranged from a straightforward comparison of anti-TNF against non-anti-TNF controls, to more complex models in which a treatment was defined by individual drug and its dose. Hierarchical models to allow 'borrowing strength' across treatment classes and dose levels, and models involving constraints on the impact of dose level, are described. These models provide a flexible approach to estimating sparse, often adverse, outcomes associated with interventions. Each model makes its own set of assumptions, and approaches to assessing goodness of fit of the various models will usually be extremely limited in their effectiveness, due to the sparse nature of the data. Both methodological and clinical considerations are required to fit realistically complex models in this area and to evaluate their appropriateness.

Adolescents with anxiety and depression: is social recovery relevant?

UNLABELLED: Social recovery has become a prominent aspect of mental health service design and delivery in the past decade. Much of the literature on social recovery is derived from first-person accounts or primary research with adult service users experiencing severe mental illness. There is a lack of both theoretical and empirical work that could inform consideration of how the concept of social recovery might apply to adolescents experiencing common (non-psychotic) mental health problems such as anxiety and depression. The current study was conducted to understand the process of experiencing anxiety and depression in young people. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine adolescents with anxiety and depression (seven girls and two boys aged 14-16 years) and 12 mothers who were recruited from a specialist Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service in the South of England. Thematic analysis indicated that young people do experience a process of 'recovery'; the processes participants described have some congruence with the earlier stages of adult recovery models involving biographical disruption and the development of new meanings, in this case of anxiety or depression, and changes in sense of identity. The accounts diverge with regard to later stages of adult models involving the development of hope and responsibility. The findings suggest that services should attend to social isolation and emphasise support for positive aspirations for future selves whilst also attending to young people's and parents' expectations about change. Methodological challenges face enquiry about 'recovery' given its connotations with cure in everyday language. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: Theoretical and empirical work on social recovery in young people and families is lacking. Using interviews, this study sought to understand the relevance of social recovery for adolescents with anxiety and depression and their mothers. Findings suggest some congruence with the earlier stages of adult recovery models involving meaning and identity. Findings diverge with regard to later stages of adult recovery models involving hope and responsibility. Social recovery in mental health services for young people needs significant empirical attention and critical debate.

'Neutralizing the patient': therapists' accounts of sexual boundary violations.

Sexual contact between psychological therapists and their clients is regarded as highly damaging, both to the clients and to the professions, and regulatory bodies impose increasingly severe sanctions upon those practitioners who are disciplined. The present study captured therapists' accounts of sexual boundary violations through interpretative phenomenological analysis of interviews with three disciplined practitioners about their relationships with clients and former clients. The results highlighted two key themes relating to (i) therapists' efforts to neutralize the power imbalances between themselves and the clients by minimizing the clients' mental health problems, stressing the conventionality of the relationships and not testing the appropriateness of the relationship with their supervisors, and (ii) a shifting identity of the therapist between hero, victim, perpetrator, which permeated their accounts as the relationship moved from success to failure. In order for a sexual boundary violation to occur, the therapist needed to generate a sense of equivalent status between themselves and the client. As the relationships failed, the therapists' accounts of the clients shifted and the inequality of the relationship re-emerged. The results are discussed in terms of implicit theories and the implications for both training and supervision in the prevention of sexual boundary violations.

Patient stratification for determining optimal second-line and third-line therapy for type 2 diabetes: the TriMaster study.

Precision medicine aims to treat an individual based on their clinical characteristics. A differential drug response, critical to using these features for therapy selection, has never been examined directly in type 2 diabetes. In this study, we tested two hypotheses: (1) individuals with body mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m2, compared to BMI ≤ 30 kg/m2, have greater glucose lowering with thiazolidinediones than with DPP4 inhibitors, and (2) individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2, compared to eGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m2, have greater glucose lowering with DPP4 inhibitors than with SGLT2 inhibitors. The primary endpoint for both hypotheses was the achieved HbA1c difference between strata for the two drugs. In total, 525 people with type 2 diabetes participated in this UK-based randomized, double-blind, three-way crossover trial of 16 weeks of treatment with each of sitagliptin 100 mg once daily, canagliflozin 100 mg once daily and pioglitazone 30 mg once daily added to metformin alone or metformin plus sulfonylurea. Overall, the achieved HbA1c was similar for the three drugs: pioglitazone 59.6 mmol/mol, sitagliptin 60.0 mmol/mol and canagliflozin 60.6 mmol/mol (P = 0.2). Participants with BMI > 30 kg/m2, compared to BMI ≤ 30 kg/m2, had a 2.88 mmol/mol (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 4.79) lower HbA1c on pioglitazone than on sitagliptin (n = 356, P = 0.003). Participants with eGFR 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2, compared to eGFR >90 ml/min/1.73 m2, had a 2.90 mmol/mol (95% CI: 1.19, 4.61) lower HbA1c on sitagliptin than on canagliflozin (n = 342, P = 0.001). There were 2,201 adverse events reported, and 447/525 (85%) randomized participants experienced an adverse event on at least one of the study drugs. In this precision medicine trial in type 2 diabetes, our findings support the use of simple, routinely available clinical measures to identify the drug class most likely to deliver the greatest glycemic reduction for a given patient. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT02653209 ; ISRCTN registration: 12039221 .).

Protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Electronic RIsk-assessment for CAncer for patients in general practice (ERICA).

INTRODUCTION: The UK has worse cancer outcomes than most comparable countries, with a large contribution attributed to diagnostic delay. Electronic risk assessment tools (eRATs) have been developed to identify primary care patients with a ≥2% risk of cancer using features recorded in the electronic record. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in English primary care. Individual general practices will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to intervention (provision of eRATs for six common cancer sites) or to usual care. The primary outcome is cancer stage at diagnosis, dichotomised to stage 1 or 2 (early) or stage 3 or 4 (advanced) for these six cancers, assessed from National Cancer Registry data. Secondary outcomes include stage at diagnosis for a further six cancers without eRATs, use of urgent referral cancer pathways, total practice cancer diagnoses, routes to cancer diagnosis and 30-day and 1-year cancer survival. Economic and process evaluations will be performed along with service delivery modelling. The primary analysis explores the proportion of patients with early-stage cancer at diagnosis. The sample size calculation used an OR of 0.8 for a cancer being diagnosed at an advanced stage in the intervention arm compared with the control arm, equating to an absolute reduction of 4.8% as an incidence-weighted figure across the six cancers. This requires 530 practices overall, with the intervention active from April 2022 for 2 years. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has approval from London City and East Research Ethics Committee, reference number 19/LO/0615; protocol version 5.0, 9 May 2022. It is sponsored by the University of Exeter. Dissemination will be by journal publication, conferences, use of appropriate social media and direct sharing with cancer policymakers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN22560297.

A randomised controlled trial to investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) for depressed non-responders to Increasing Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) high-intensity therapies: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Major depression represents a pressing challenge for health care. In England, Increasing Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services provide evidence-based psychological therapies in a stepped-care approach to patients with depression. While introduction of these services has successfully increased access to therapy, estimates suggest that about 50% of depressed patients who have come to the end of the IAPT pathway still show significant levels of symptoms. This study will investigate whether Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT), a group intervention combining training in mindfulness meditation and elements from cognitive therapy, can have beneficial effects in depressed patients who have not responded to high-intensity therapy in IAPT. It will seek to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of MBCT as compared to the treatment these patients would usually receive. METHODS: In a 2-arm randomised controlled trial, patients who currently meet the criteria for major depressive disorder and who have not sufficiently responded to at least 12 sessions of IAPT high-intensity therapy will be allocated, at a ratio of 1:1, to receive either MBCT (in addition to treatment as usual [TAU]) or continue with TAU only. Assessments will take place at baseline, 10 weeks and 34 weeks post-randomisation. The primary outcome will be reduction in depression symptomatology 34 weeks post-randomisation as assessed using the Public Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Secondary outcomes will include depressive symptomatology at 10 weeks post-randomisation and other clinical outcomes measured at 10-week and 34-week follow-up, along with a series of binarised outcomes to indicate clinically significant and reliable change. Evaluations of cost-effectiveness will be based on assessments of service use costs collected using the Adult Service Use Schedule and health utilities derived from the EQ-5D. DISCUSSION: This trial will add to the evidence base for the use of MBCT in depressed treatment non-responders. It will constitute the first trial to test MBCT following non-response to psychological therapy, with results providing a direct estimate of efficacy within the IAPT pathway. As such, its results will offer an important basis for decisions regarding the adoption of MBCT for non-responders within IAPT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05236959. Registered on 11 February 2022. ISRCTN 17755571. Registered on 2 February 2021.

Systematic review of methods used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event.

BACKGROUND: Adverse consequences of medical interventions are a source of concern, but clinical trials may lack power to detect elevated rates of such events, while observational studies have inherent limitations. Meta-analysis allows the combination of individual studies, which can increase power and provide stronger evidence relating to adverse events. However, meta-analysis of adverse events has associated methodological challenges. The aim of this study was to systematically identify and review the methodology used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event, following a therapeutic intervention. METHODS: Using a collection of reviews identified previously, 166 references including a meta-analysis were selected for review. At least one of the primary outcomes in each review was an adverse or unintended event. The nature of the intervention, source of funding, number of individual meta-analyses performed, number of primary studies included in the review, and use of meta-analytic methods were all recorded. Specific areas of interest relating to the methods used included the choice of outcome metric, methods of dealing with sparse events, heterogeneity, publication bias and use of individual patient data. RESULTS: The 166 included reviews were published between 1994 and 2006. Interventions included drugs and surgery among other interventions. Many of the references being reviewed included multiple meta-analyses with 44.6% (74/166) including more than ten. Randomised trials only were included in 42.2% of meta-analyses (70/166), observational studies only in 33.7% (56/166) and a mix of observational studies and trials in 15.7% (26/166). Sparse data, in the form of zero events in one or both arms where the outcome was a count of events, was found in 64 reviews of two-arm studies, of which 41 (64.1%) had zero events in both arms. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analyses of adverse events data are common and useful in terms of increasing the power to detect an association with an intervention, especially when the events are infrequent. However, with regard to existing meta-analyses, a wide variety of different methods have been employed, often with no evident rationale for using a particular approach. More specifically, the approach to dealing with zero events varies, and guidelines on this issue would be desirable.