Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir improves clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with moderate-to-severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Whether the use of remdesivir in symptomatic, nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who are at high risk for disease progression prevents hospitalization is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who had symptom onset within the previous 7 days and who had at least one risk factor for disease progression (age ≥60 years, obesity, or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients were randomly assigned to receive intravenous remdesivir (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause by day 28. The primary safety end point was any adverse event. A secondary end point was a composite of a Covid-19-related medically attended visit or death from any cause by day 28. RESULTS: A total of 562 patients who underwent randomization and received at least one dose of remdesivir or placebo were included in the analyses: 279 patients in the remdesivir group and 283 in the placebo group. The mean age was 50 years, 47.9% of the patients were women, and 41.8% were Hispanic or Latinx. The most common coexisting conditions were diabetes mellitus (61.6%), obesity (55.2%), and hypertension (47.7%). Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause occurred in 2 patients (0.7%) in the remdesivir group and in 15 (5.3%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03 to 0.59; P = 0.008). A total of 4 of 246 patients (1.6%) in the remdesivir group and 21 of 252 (8.3%) in the placebo group had a Covid-19-related medically attended visit by day 28 (hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.56). No patients had died by day 28. Adverse events occurred in 42.3% of the patients in the remdesivir group and in 46.3% of those in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Among nonhospitalized patients who were at high risk for Covid-19 progression, a 3-day course of remdesivir had an acceptable safety profile and resulted in an 87% lower risk of hospitalization or death than placebo. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; PINETREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501952; EudraCT number, 2020-003510-12.).

Concordance Between Initial Presumptive and Final Adjudicated Diagnoses of Infection Among Patients Meeting Sepsis-3 Criteria in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines emphasize rapid antibiotic treatment for sepsis, but infection presence is often uncertain at initial presentation. We investigated the incidence and drivers of false-positive presumptive infection diagnosis among emergency department (ED) patients meeting Sepsis-3 criteria. METHODS: For a retrospective cohort of patients hospitalized after meeting Sepsis-3 criteria (acute organ failure and suspected infection including blood cultures drawn and intravenous antimicrobials administered) in 1 of 4 EDs from 2013 to 2017, trained reviewers first identified the ED-diagnosed source of infection and adjudicated the presence and source of infection on final assessment. Reviewers subsequently adjudicated final infection probability for a randomly selected 10% subset of subjects. Risk factors for false-positive infection diagnosis and its association with 30-day mortality were evaluated using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Of 8267 patients meeting Sepsis-3 criteria in the ED, 699 (8.5%) did not have an infection on final adjudication and 1488 (18.0%) patients with confirmed infections had a different source of infection diagnosed in the ED versus final adjudication (ie, initial/final source diagnosis discordance). Among the subset of patients whose final infection probability was adjudicated (n = 812), 79 (9.7%) had only "possible" infection and 77 (9.5%) were not infected. Factors associated with false-positive infection diagnosis included hypothermia, altered mental status, comorbidity burden, and an "unknown infection source" diagnosis in the ED (odds ratio: 6.39; 95% confidence interval: 5.14-7.94). False-positive infection diagnosis was not associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this large multihospital study, <20% of ED patients meeting Sepsis-3 criteria had no infection or only possible infection on retrospective adjudication.

The Influence of Social Determinants on Receiving Outpatient Treatment with Monoclonal Antibodies, Disease Risk, and Effectiveness for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Limited research has studied the influence of social determinants of health (SDoH) on the receipt, disease risk, and subsequent effectiveness of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (nMAbs) for outpatient treatment of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To examine the influence of SDoH variables on receiving nMAb treatments and the risk of a poor COVID-19 outcome, as well as nMAb treatment effectiveness across SDoH subgroups. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study utilizing electronic health record data from four health systems. SDoH variables analyzed included race, ethnicity, insurance, marital status, Area Deprivation Index, and population density. PARTICIPANTS: COVID-19 patients who met at least one emergency use authorization criterion for nMAb treatment. MAIN MEASURE: We used binary logistic regression to examine the influence of SDoH variables on receiving nMAb treatments and risk of a poor outcome from COVID-19 and marginal structural models to study treatment effectiveness. RESULTS: The study population included 25,241 (15.1%) nMAb-treated and 141,942 (84.9%) non-treated patients. Black or African American patients were less likely to receive treatment than white non-Hispanic patients (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.82-0.91). Patients who were on Medicaid, divorced or widowed, living in rural areas, or living in areas with the highest Area Deprivation Index (most vulnerable) had lower odds of receiving nMAb treatment, but a higher risk of a poor outcome. For example, compared to patients on private insurance, Medicaid patients had 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.93) times the odds of receiving nMAb treatment, but 1.18 (95% CI = 1.13-1.24) times the odds of a poor COVID-19 outcome. Age, comorbidities, and COVID-19 vaccination status had a stronger influence on risk of a poor outcome than SDoH variables. nMAb treatment benefited all SDoH subgroups with lower rates of 14-day hospitalization and 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Disparities existed in receiving nMAbs within SDoH subgroups despite the benefit of treatment across subgroups.

A Pragmatic, Stepped-Wedge, Cluster-controlled Clinical Trial of Real-Time Pneumonia Clinical Decision Support.

Rationale: Care of emergency department (ED) patients with pneumonia can be challenging. Clinical decision support may decrease unnecessary variation and improve care. Objectives: To report patient outcomes and processes of care after deployment of electronic pneumonia clinical decision support (ePNa): a comprehensive, open loop, real-time clinical decision support embedded within the electronic health record. Methods: We conducted a pragmatic, stepped-wedge, cluster-controlled trial with deployment at 2-month intervals in 16 community hospitals. ePNa extracts real-time and historical data to guide diagnosis, risk stratification, microbiological studies, site of care, and antibiotic therapy. We included all adult ED patients with pneumonia over the course of 3 years identified by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision discharge coding confirmed by chest imaging. Measurements and Main Results: The median age of the 6,848 patients was 67 years (interquartile range, 50-79), and 48% were female; 64.8% were hospital admitted. Unadjusted mortality was 8.6% before and 4.8% after deployment. A mixed effects logistic regression model adjusting for severity of illness with hospital cluster as the random effect showed an adjusted odds ratio of 0.62 (0.49-0.79; P < 0.001) for 30-day all-cause mortality after deployment. Lower mortality was consistent across hospital clusters. ePNa-concordant antibiotic prescribing increased from 83.5% to 90.2% (P < 0.001). The mean time from ED admission to first antibiotic was 159.4 (156.9-161.9) minutes at baseline and 150.9 (144.1-157.8) minutes after deployment (P < 0.001). Outpatient disposition from the ED increased from 29.2% to 46.9%, whereas 7-day secondary hospital admission was unchanged (5.2% vs. 6.1%). ePNa was used by ED clinicians in 67% of eligible patients. Conclusions: ePNa deployment was associated with improved processes of care and lower mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03358342).

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Adults After Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults (MIS-A) was reported in association with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. MIS-A was included in the list of adverse events to be monitored as part of the emergency use authorizations issued for COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: Reports of MIS-A patients received by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after COVID-19 vaccines became available were assessed. Data collected on the patients included clinical and demographic characteristics and their vaccine status. The Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) was also reviewed for possible cases of MIS-A. RESULTS: From 14 December 2020 to 30 April 2021, 20 patients who met the case definition for MIS-A were reported to CDC. Their median age was 35 years (range, 21-66 years), and 13 (65%) were male. Overall, 16 (80%) patients had a preceding COVID-19-like illness a median of 26 days (range 11-78 days) before MIS-A onset. All 20 patients had laboratory evidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Seven MIS-A patients (35%) received COVID-19 vaccine a median of 10 days (range, 6-45 days) before MIS-A onset; 3 patients received a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine 4, 17, and 22 days before MIS-A onset. Patients with MIS-A predominantly had gastrointestinal and cardiac manifestations and hypotension or shock. CONCLUSIONS: Although 7 patients were reported to have received COVID-19 vaccine, all had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the widespread use of COVID-19 vaccines, the lack of reporting of MIS-A associated with vaccination alone, without evidence of underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection, is reassuring.

Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Outcomes of Coccidioidomycosis, Utah, 2006-2015.

On the basis of a 1957 geographic Coccidioides seropositivity survey, 3 counties in southwestern Utah, USA, were considered coccidioidomycosis-endemic, but there has been a paucity of information on the disease burden in Utah since. We report findings from a recent clinical and epidemiologic study of coccidioidomycosis in Utah. To describe clinical characteristics, we identified all coccidioidomycosis cases in an integrated health system in the state during 2006-2015. For epidemiologic analysis, we used cases reported to the Utah Department of Health during 2009-2015. Mean state incidence was 1.83 cases/100,000 population/year. Washington County, in southwestern Utah, had the highest incidence, 17.2 cases/100,000 population/year. In a generalized linear model with time as a fixed effect, mean annual temperature, population, and new construction were associated with regional variations in incidence. Using these variables in a spatiotemporal model, we estimated the adjusted regional variation by county to predict areas where Coccidioides infections might increase.

Antimicrobial Stewardship in a Hematological Malignancy Unit: Carbapenem Reduction and Decreased Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic stewardship is challenging in hematological malignancy patients. METHODS: We performed a quasiexperimental implementation study of 2 antimicrobial stewardship interventions in a hematological malignancy unit: monthly antibiotic cycling for febrile neutropenia that included cefepime (± metronidazole) and piperacillin-tazobactam and a clinical prediction rule to guide anti-vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VRE) therapy. We used interrupted time-series analysis to compare antibiotic use and logistic regression in order to adjust observed unit-level changes in resistant infections by background community rates. RESULTS: A total of 2434 admissions spanning 3 years pre- and 2 years postimplementation were included. Unadjusted carbapenem and daptomycin use decreased significantly. In interrupted time-series analysis, carbapenem use decreased by -230 days of therapy (DOT)/1000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], -290 to -180; P < .001). Both VRE colonization (odds ratio [OR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.81; P < .001) and infection (OR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9; P = .02) decreased after implementation. This shift may have had a greater effect on daptomycin prescribing (-160 DOT/1000 patient-days; 95% CI, -200 to -120; P < .001) than did the VRE clinical prediction score (-30 DOT/1000 patient-days; 95% CI, -50 to 0; P = .08). Also, 46.2% of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates were carbapenem-resistant preimplementation compared with 25.0% postimplementation (P = .32). Unit-level changes in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and extended-spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) incidence were explained by background community-level trends, while changes in AmpC ESBL and VRE appeared to be independent. The program was not associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: An antibiotic cycling-based strategy for febrile neutropenia effectively reduced carbapenem use, which may have resulted in decreased VRE colonization and infection and perhaps, in turn, decreased daptomycin prescribing.

Antibiotic Exposure and Risk for Hospital-Associated Clostridioides difficile Infection.

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a health care-associated infection associated with significant morbidity and cost, with highly varied risk across populations. More effective, risk-based prevention strategies are needed. Here, we investigate risk factors for hospital-associated CDI in a large integrated health system. In a retrospective cohort of all adult admissions to 21 Intermountain Healthcare hospitals from 2006 to 2012, we identified all symptomatic (i) hospital-onset and (ii) health care-facility-associated, community-onset CDI. We then evaluated the risk associated with antibiotic exposure, including that of specific agents, using multivariable logistic regression. A total of 2,356 cases of CDI among 506,068 admissions were identified (incidence, 46.6 per 10,000). Prior antibiotic use was the dominant risk factor, where for every antibiotic day of therapy prior to the index admission, the odds of subsequent CDI increased by 12.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.2 to 13.4%; P < 0.0001). This was a much stronger association than was inpatient antibiotic exposure (odds ratio [OR], 1.007 [95% CI, 1.005 to 1.009]; P < 0.0001). The highest-risk antibiotics included second-generation and later cephalosporins (especially oral), carbapenems, fluoroquinolones, and clindamycin, while doxycycline and daptomycin were associated with a lower CDI risk. We concluded that cumulative antibiotic exposure prior to admission is the greatest contributor to the risk of subsequent CDI. Most classes of antibiotics carry some risk, which varies by drug and route. This information may be useful for antimicrobial stewardship efforts.

Strategies for prediction of drug-resistant pathogens and empiric antibiotic selection in community-acquired pneumonia.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Although most patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are appropriately treated with narrow-spectrum antibiotics, predicting which patients require coverage of drug-resistant pathogens (DRP) remains a challenge. The 2019 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America CAP guidelines endorse using locally validated prediction models for DRP. Here we review risk factors for DRP and provide a summary of available risk prediction models. RECENT FINDINGS: Both inadequate initial empiric spectrum as well as unnecessary broad-spectrum antibiotic use are associated with poor outcomes in CAP. Multiple prediction models for DRP-based patient-level risk factors have been published, with some variation in included predictor variables and test performance characteristics. Seven models have been robustly externally validated, and implementation data have been published for two of these models. All models demonstrated better performance than the healthcare-associated pneumonia criteria, with most favoring sensitivity over specificity. We also report validation of the novel, risk factor-based treatment algorithm proposed in the American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines which strongly favors specificity over sensitivity, especially in nonsevere pneumonia. SUMMARY: Using patient-level risk factors to guide the decision whether to prescribe broad-spectrum antibiotics is a rational approach to treatment. Several viable candidate prediction models are available. Hospitals should evaluate the local performance of existing scores before implementing in routine clinical practice.

Are Clostridioides difficile infections being overdiagnosed in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients?

BACKGROUND: Because both diarrhea due to other causes and gastrointestinal colonization with toxigenic Clostridioides difficile are common in HSCT, there is a possibility of false-positive diagnoses of C difficile infections (CDI). METHODS: We estimated the probability of a patient being colonized by toxigenic C difficile by testing non-diarrheal surveillance stools from 223 HSCT recipients and the probability that a specimen submitted for C difficile testing was not CDI by determining the number of clinical tests that returned negative from this cohort. The number of expected false-positive CDI was estimated using these probabilities and compared with observed clinical test results. RESULTS: The expected false-positive and the observed numbers of positive clinical results were similar. The 20 patients diagnosed with CDI were also similar to 142 patients with diarrhea and C difficile-negative stools in number of stools on day of testing, associated symptoms, and the recorded number of days to formed stools. C difficile colonization was most commonly detected during the first week and CDI during the second. Retrospective analysis of 837 patients showed that 18 stools were submitted for each diagnosis of CDI. Ribotyping of the surveillance samples showed 17 ribotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Although several assumptions could impact the accuracy of our false-positive CDI estimates, it appears that many HSCT recipients diagnosed with CDI may actually represent colonized status and an alternative cause of diarrhea. Diagnostic stewardship, including limiting CDI diagnoses to patients with positive toxin and restricting stool submissions to patients with more severe symptoms, may decrease the number of false-positive diagnoses.

Repurposing an Old Drug for a New Epidemic: Ursodeoxycholic Acid to Prevent Recurrent Clostridioides difficile Infection.

Recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection (rCDI) may be mediated in part by secondary bile acids. Here we report salvage therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) to prevent rCDI in 16 high-risk patients. Patients on UDCA had a low observed recurrence rate (12.5%). Controlled trials are needed to confirm these observations.

Broad-spectrum antibiotic use and poor outcomes in community-onset pneumonia: a cohort study.

QUESTION: Is broad-spectrum antibiotic use associated with poor outcomes in community-onset pneumonia after adjusting for confounders? METHODS: We performed a retrospective, observational cohort study of 1995 adults with pneumonia admitted from four US hospital emergency departments. We used multivariable regressions to investigate the effect of broad-spectrum antibiotics on 30-day mortality, length of stay, cost and Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). To address indication bias, we developed a propensity score using multilevel (individual provider) generalised linear mixed models to perform inverse-probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to estimate the average treatment effect in the treated. We also manually reviewed a sample of mortality cases for antibiotic-associated adverse events. RESULTS: 39.7% of patients received broad-spectrum antibiotics, but drug-resistant pathogens were recovered in only 3%. Broad-spectrum antibiotics were associated with increased mortality in both the unweighted multivariable model (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.5-5.9; p<0.001) and IPTW analysis (OR 4.6, 95% CI 2.9-7.5; p<0.001). Broad-spectrum antibiotic use by either analysis was also associated with longer hospital stay, greater cost and increased CDI. Healthcare-associated pneumonia was not associated with mortality independent of broad-spectrum antibiotic use. In manual review we identified antibiotic-associated events in 17.5% of mortality cases. CONCLUSION: Broad-spectrum antibiotics appear to be associated with increased mortality and other poor outcomes in community-onset pneumonia.

Clostridioides difficile colonization and infection in patients admitted for a first autologous transplantation: Incidence, risk factors, and patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: More data are needed regarding the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) and colonization in patients undergoing an autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT). METHODS: We studied 472 consecutive patients admitted for a first AHSCT and conducted a prospective C difficile stool surveillance and ribotyping analysis in a subset of 94 patients. RESULTS: Clostridioides difficile infection was diagnosed in 7% of patients for an incidence of 3.4 CDI/1000 inpatient days, recurrent/reinfection CDI was rare. CDI was increased in patients who were colonized on admission, had required a recent pre-admission inpatient stay for fever and/or serious infection, or received empiric therapy with a carbapenem or extended-spectrum penicillin. CDI was associated with a longer length of stay and higher hospital costs. Twelve of 94 patients (13%) were found to have colonization on admission; CDI was diagnosed in 27% of these vs 1% in those with initial negative stools. Colonization in the hospital for those negative on admission was infrequent. C difficile ribotyping showed a predominance of 014/020. CONCLUSIONS: Clostridioides difficile infection is a significant infection in patients receiving a first AHSCT. The risk factors identified may be useful in designing preventive interventions.

Development and validation of a high-speed video system for measuring saccadic eye movement.

Laboratory-based retroreflective and magnetic scleral search-coil technologies are the current standards for collecting saccadometric data, but such equipment is costly and cumbersome. We have validated a novel, portable, high-speed video camera-based system (Exilim EX-FH20, Casio, Tokyo, Japan) for measuring saccade reaction time (RT) and error rate in a well-lit environment. This system would enable measurements of pro- and antisaccades in athletes, which is important because antisaccade metrics provide a valid tool for concussion diagnosis and determining an athlete's safe return to play. A total of 529 trials collected from 15 participants were used to compare saccade RT and error rate measurements of the high-speed camera system to a retroreflective video-based eye tracker (Eye-Trac 6: Applied Sciences Laboratories, Bedford, MA). Bland-Altman analysis revealed that the RT measurements made by the high-speed video system were 11 ms slower than those made by the retroreflective system. Error rate measurements were identical between the two systems. An excellent degree of reliability was found between the system measurements and in the ratings of independent researchers examining the video data. A strong association (r = .97) between the RTs determined via the retroreflective and high-speed camera systems was observed across all trials. Our high-speed camera system is portable and easily set up, does not require extensive equipment calibration, and can be used in a well-lit environment. Accordingly, the camera-based capture of saccadometric data may provide a valuable tool for neurological assessment following a concussive event and for the continued monitoring of recovery.

The clinical and economic impact of cytomegalovirus infection in recipients of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

BACKGROUND: CMV infection (CMV-I) remains an important complication of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). METHODS: This was a retrospective, single-center cohort study in HSCT recipients. Primary outcomes were adjusted cost and all-cause mortality. Secondary analyses investigated CMV risk factors and the effect of serostatus. RESULTS: Overall, 690 transplant episodes were included (allogeneic [n = 310]; autologous [n = 380]). All received preemptive CMV antiviral therapy at first detectable DNAemia. CMV-I occurred in 34.8% of allogeneic and 2.1% of autologous transplants; median time to onset was 45 days. In allogeneic HSCT recipients, the primary risk factor for CMV-I was CMV donor/recipient (D/R) serostatus. In a Markov multi-state model for allogeneic HSCT recipients, the hazard ratio for CMV-I and relapse was 1.5 (95% CI 0.8-2.8) and for CMV-I and mortality 2.4 (95% CI 0.9-6.5). In a multivariable model for all patients, CMV-I was associated with increased total cost (coefficient = 0.21, estimated incremental daily cost USD $500; P = 0.02). Cost was attenuated in allogeneic HSCT recipients (coefficient = 0.13, USD $699 vs $613, or $24 892 per transplant episode; P = 0.23). CMV disease (CMV-D) complicated 29.6% of CMV-I events in allogeneic HSCT recipients, but was not associated with an incrementally increased adjusted risk of mortality compared with CMV-I alone. CMV-I (56.4%) and CMV-D (19.8%) were significantly overrepresented in D-/R+ serostatus HSCT recipients, and mortality was higher in R+ HSCT recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite early preemptive antiviral treatment, CMV-I impacts clinical outcomes and cost after HSCT, but the impact on cost is less pronounced in allogeneic HSCT recipients compared with autologous HSCT recipients.

Prediction of Bloodstream Infection Due to Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus in Patients Undergoing Leukemia Induction or Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation.

BACKGROUND.: Bloodstream infection (BSI) to due vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) is an important complication of hematologic malignancy. Determining when to use empiric anti-VRE antibiotic therapy in this population remains a clinical challenge. METHODS.: A single-center cohort representing 664 admissions for induction or hematopoietic stem-cell transplant (HSCT) from 2006 to 2014 was selected. We derived a prediction score using risk factors for VRE BSI and evaluated the model's predictive performance by calculating it for each of 16232 BSI at-risk inpatient days. RESULTS.: VRE BSI incidence was 6.5% of admissions (2.7 VRE BSI per 1000 BSI at-risk days). Adjusted 1-year mortality and length of stay were significantly higher in patients with VRE BSI. VRE colonization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 8.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.4-20.6; P < .0001), renal insufficiency (aOR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.0-5.8; P = .046), aminoglycoside use (aOR = 4.7; 95% CI = 2.2-9.8; P < .0001), and antianaerobic antibiotic use (aOR = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.3-5.8; P = .007) correlated most closely with VRE BSI. A prediction model with optimal performance included these factors plus gastrointestinal disturbance, severe neutropenia, and prior beta-lactam antibiotic use. The score effectively risk-stratified patients (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.79-0.89). At a threshold of ≥5 points, per day probability of VRE BSI was increased nearly 4-fold. CONCLUSIONS.: This novel predictive score is based on risk factors reflecting a plausible pathophysiological model for VRE BSI in patients with hematological malignancy. Integrating VRE colonization status with risk factors for developing BSI is a promising method of guiding rational use of empiric anti-VRE antimicrobial therapy in patients with hematological malignancy. Validation of this novel predictive score is needed to confirm clinical utility.

Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus Colonization and Bacteremia and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Outcomes.

The association between pre-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) colonization, HSCT-associated VRE bacteremia, and HSCT mortality is disputed. We studied 161 consecutive patients with acute leukemia who underwent HSCT at our hospital between 2006 and 2014, of whom 109 also received leukemia induction/consolidation on our unit. All inpatients had weekly VRE stool surveillance. Pre-HSCT colonization was not associated with increases in HSCT mortality but did identify a subgroup of HSCT recipients with a higher risk for VRE bacteremia and possibly bacteremia from other organisms. The major risk factor for pre-HSCT colonization was the number of hospital inpatient days between initial admission for leukemia and HSCT. One-third of evaluable patients colonized before HSCT were VRE-culture negative on admission for HSCT; these patients had an increased risk for subsequent VRE stool surveillance positivity but not VRE bacteremia. Molecular typing of VRE isolates obtained before and after HSCT showed that VRE strains frequently change. Postengraftment VRE bacteremia was associated with a much higher mortality than pre-engraftment VRE bacteremia. Pre-engraftment bacteremia from any organism was associated with an alternative donor and resulted in an increase in hospital length of stay and cost. Mortality was similar for pre-engraftment VRE bacteremia and pre-engraftment bacteremia due to other organisms, but mortality associated with post-engraftment VRE bacteremia was higher and largely explained by associated severe graft-versus-host disease and relapsed leukemia. These data emphasize the importance of distinguishing between VRE colonization before HSCT and at HSCT, between pre-engraftment and postengraftment VRE bacteremia, and between VRE bacteremia and bacteremia from other organisms.

Derivation and Multicenter Validation of the Drug Resistance in Pneumonia Clinical Prediction Score.

The health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) criteria have a limited ability to predict pneumonia caused by drug-resistant bacteria and favor the overutilization of broad-spectrum antibiotics. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical prediction score with an improved ability to predict the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens compared to that of HCAP criteria. A derivation cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed pneumonia cases in 2011 and 2012 was identified retrospectively. Risk factors for pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens were evaluated by logistic regression, and a novel prediction score (the drug resistance in pneumonia [DRIP] score) was derived. The score was then validated in a prospective, observational cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed cases of pneumonia at four U.S. centers in 2013 and 2014. The DRIP score (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC], 0.88 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.82 to 0.93]) performed significantly better (P = 0.02) than the HCAP criteria (AUROC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.79]). At a threshold of ≥4 points, the DRIP score demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.87), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93). By comparison, the performance of HCAP criteria was less favorable: sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), specificity was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.73), PPV was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.63), and NPV was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.92). The overall accuracy of the HCAP criteria was 69.5% (95% CI, 62.5 to 75.7%), whereas that of the DRIP score was 81.5% (95% CI, 74.2 to 85.6%) (P = 0.005). Unnecessary extended-spectrum antibiotics were recommended 46% less frequently by applying the DRIP score (25/200, 12.5%) than by use of HCAP criteria (47/200, 23.5%) (P = 0.004), without increasing the rate at which inadequate treatment recommendations were made. The DRIP score was more predictive of the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens than HCAP criteria and may have the potential to decrease antibiotic overutilization in patients with pneumonia. Validation in larger cohorts of patients with pneumonia due to all causes is necessary.

Empiric antibiotic selection and risk prediction of drug-resistant pathogens in community-onset pneumonia.

PURPOSE OF REVEIW: Empiric antibiotic selection in community-onset pneumonia is complicated by uncertainty regarding risk of drug-resistant pathogens (DRPs). The healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) criteria have limited predictive value and lead to unnecessary antibiotic use. Better methods of predicting risk of DRP and selecting empiric antibiotics are needed. Here we give an update on risk factors for DRP, available risk prediction models, and treatment strategy in patients with pneumonia. RECENT FINDINGS: Evidence supporting factors that contribute to risk of DRP has improved since the advent of HCAP. Many of these risk factors have been reproducibly identified in heterogeneous populations. Newer methods of predicting DRP based on these factors demonstrate better performance than HCAP. Recent innovations include the potential to discriminate between risk for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and other DRP, and use of severity as a modifier of treatment threshold. However, there is wide variation in included predictor variables, and at proposed thresholds most scores still favor overtreatment. SUMMARY: Until reliable molecular diagnostics are available, additional development and validation of decision support models integrating local resistance rates, estimated DRP risk, severity, and threshold for anti-DRP antibiotics are needed. Once optimized models are identified, implementation studies will be needed to confirm safety and efficacy.