Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk.

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved 1 . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements)2,3. We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.

An Innovative, Prospective, Hybrid Cohort-Cluster Study Design to Characterize Dengue Virus Transmission in Multigenerational Households in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Difficulties inherent in the identification of immune correlates of protection or severe disease have challenged the development and evaluation of dengue vaccines. There persist substantial gaps in knowledge about the complex effects of age and sequential dengue virus (DENV) exposures on these correlations. To address these gaps, we were conducting a novel family-based cohort-cluster study for DENV transmission in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. The study began in 2015 and is funded until at least 2023. As of May 2019, 2,870 individuals in 485 families were actively enrolled. The families comprise at least 1 child born into the study as a newborn, 1 other child, a parent, and a grandparent. The median age of enrolled participants is 21 years (range 0-93 years). Active surveillance is performed to detect acute dengue illnesses, and annual blood testing identifies subclinical seroconversions. Extended follow-up of this cohort will detect sequential infections and correlate antibody kinetics and sequence of infections with disease outcomes. The central goal of this prospective study is to characterize how different DENV exposure histories within multigenerational family units, from DENV-naive infants to grandparents with multiple prior DENV exposures, affect transmission, disease, and protection at the level of the individual, household, and community.

Association between semi-quantitative microbial load and respiratory symptoms among Thai military recruits: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assays have improved diagnostic sensitivity for a wide range of pathogens. However, co-detection of multiple agents and bacterial colonization make it difficult to distinguish between asymptomatic infection or illness aetiology. We assessed whether semi-quantitative microbial load data can differentiate between symptomatic and asymptomatic states for common respiratory pathogens. METHODS: We obtained throat and nasal swab samples from military trainees at two Thai Army barracks. Specimens were collected at the start and end of 10-week training periods (non-acute samples), and from individuals who developed upper respiratory tract infection during training (acute samples). We analysed the samples using a commercial multiplex respiratory panel comprising 33 bacterial, viral and fungal targets. We used random effects tobit models to compare cycle threshold (Ct) value distributions from non-acute and acute samples. RESULTS: We analysed 341 non-acute and 145 acute swab samples from 274 participants. Haemophilus influenzae type B was the most commonly detected microbe (77.4% of non-acute and 64.8% of acute samples). In acute samples, nine specific microbe pairs were detected more frequently than expected by chance. Regression models indicated significantly lower microbial load in non-acute relative to acute samples for H. influenzae non-type B, Streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus, although it was not possible to identify a Ct-value threshold indicating causal etiology for any of these organisms. CONCLUSIONS: Semi-quantitative measures of microbial concentration did not reliably differentiate between illness and asymptomatic colonization, suggesting that clinical symptoms may not always be directly related to microbial load for common respiratory infections.

Measles virus transmission patterns and public health responses during Operation Allies Welcome: a descriptive epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: On Aug 29, 2021, Operation Allies Welcome (OAW) was established to support the resettlement of more than 80 000 Afghan evacuees in the USA. After identification of measles among evacuees, incoming evacuee flights were temporarily paused, and mass measles vaccination of evacuees aged 6 months or older was introduced domestically and overseas, with a 21-day quarantine period after vaccination. We aimed to evaluate patterns of measles virus transmission during this outbreak and the impact of control measures. METHODS: We conducted a measles outbreak investigation among Afghan evacuees who were resettled in the USA as part of OAW. Patients with measles were defined as individuals with an acute febrile rash illness between Aug 29, 2021, and Nov 26, 2021, and either laboratory confirmation of infection or epidemiological link to a patient with measles with laboratory confirmation. We analysed the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with measles and used epidemiological information and whole-genome sequencing to track transmission pathways. A transmission model was used to evaluate the effects of vaccination and other interventions. FINDINGS: 47 people with measles (attack rate: 0·65 per 1000 evacuees) were reported in six US locations housing evacuees in four states. The median age of patients was 1 year (range 0-26); 33 (70%) were younger than 5 years. The age distribution shifted during the outbreak towards infants younger than 12 months. 20 (43%) patients with wild-type measles virus had rash onset after vaccination. No fatalities or community spread were identified, nor further importations after flight resumption. In a non-intervention scenario, transmission models estimated that a median of 5506 cases (IQR 10-5626) could have occurred. Infection clusters based on epidemiological criteria could be delineated into smaller clusters using phylogenetic analyses; however, sequences with few substitution count differences did not always indicate single lines of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of control measures limited measles transmission during OAW. Our findings highlight the importance of integration between epidemiological and genetic information in discerning between individual lines of transmission in an elimination setting. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Lack of Alignment Between WHO Joint External Evaluation and State Party Self-Assessment Scores Undermines Utility as Evaluation Tools for the Department of Defense.

The International Health Regulations 2005 (IHR) set standards for countries to detect and respond to public health threats such as COVID-19. The US Department of Defense engages with partner nations to build IHR-related health security capacities. In this article, we compare 2 elements of the IHR Monitoring and Evaluation Framework to determine if they align in a useful way. The version of the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) tool used for this study is a self-assessment of 13 capacities, while the Joint External Evaluation (JEE) requires collaboration with international subject matter experts to evaluate 19 capacities. The SPAR indicators are scored separately from 0% to 100%, whereas the JEE uses a rank-ordered scale from 1 to 5 for variable numbers of indicators in each capacity. Using 2018-2019 data from the World Health Organization, we quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated the alignment of the SPAR and JEE scoring systems, using paired t tests for related capacities and 3 approaches to matching the scales. Whether using a simple, evenly divided scale for the SPAR or downscaling the SPAR scores to match with lower JEE scores, the paired t tests indicate that the JEE and SPAR scoring systems are not aligned. Many of the capacities in the JEE and SPAR are defined differently, pointing to one of the reasons for the discordance. We discuss implications for revision of the JEE and SPAR assessment tools along with ways in which the scores might be used for planning global health engagement capacity-building activities.

Epidemiology and Transmission of Respiratory Infections in Thai Army Recruits: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Military recruits are at high risk of respiratory infections. However, limited data exist on military populations in tropical settings, where the epidemiology of respiratory infections differs substantially from temperate settings. We enrolled recruits undertaking a 10-week military training at two Royal Thai Army barracks between May 2014 and July 2015. We used a multiplex respiratory panel to analyze nose and throat swabs collected at the start and end of the training period, and from participants experiencing respiratory symptoms during follow-up. Paired sera were tested for influenza seroconversion using a hemagglutinin inhibition assay. Overall rates of upper respiratory illness and influenza-like illness were 3.1 and 2.0 episodes per 100 person-weeks, respectively. A pathogen was detected in 96% of samples. The most commonly detected microbes were Haemophilus influenzae type B (62.7%) or non-type B (58.2%) and rhinovirus (22.4%). At baseline, bacterial colonization was high and included H. influenzae type B (82.3%), H. influenzae non-type B (31.5%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (14.6%), Staphylococcus aureus (8.5%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (8.5%). At the end of follow-up, colonization with H. influenzae non-type B had increased to 74.1%, and S. pneumoniae to 33.6%. In the serology subset, the rate of influenza infection was 3.4 per 100 person-months; 58% of influenza infections resulted in clinical disease. Our study provides key data on the epidemiology and transmission of respiratory pathogens in tropical settings. Our results emphasize the need for improved infection prevention and control in military environments, given the high burden of illness and potential for intense transmission of respiratory pathogens.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of influenza infection among individuals with influenza-like illness presenting to an urban Thai hospital over a five-year period.

Early diagnosis of influenza infection maximizes the effectiveness of antiviral medicines. Here, we assess the ability for clinical characteristics and rapid influenza tests to predict PCR-confirmed influenza infection in a sentinel, cross-sectional study for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Thailand. Participants meeting criteria for acute ILI (fever > 38°C and cough or sore throat) were recruited from inpatient and outpatient departments in Bangkok, Thailand, from 2009-2014. The primary endpoint for the study was the occurrence of virologically-confirmed influenza infection (based upon detection of viral RNA by RT-PCR) among individuals presenting for care with ILI. Nasal and throat swabs were tested by rapid influenza test (QuickVue) and by RT-PCR. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated using the case test-negative method. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to predict influenza RT-PCR positivity based upon symptoms reported. We enrolled 4572 individuals with ILI; 32.7% had detectable influenza RNA by RT-PCR. Influenza cases were attributable to influenza B (38.6%), A(H1N1)pdm09 (35.1%), and A(H3N2) (26.3%) viruses. VE was highest against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and among adults. The most important symptoms for predicting influenza PCR-positivity among patients with ILI were cough, runny nose, chills, and body aches. The accuracy of the CART predictive model was 72.8%, with an NPV of 78.1% and a PPV of 59.7%. During epidemic periods, PPV improved to 68.5%. The PPV of the QuickVue assay relative to RT-PCR was 93.0% overall, with peak performance during epidemic periods and in the absence of oseltamivir treatment. Clinical criteria demonstrated poor predictive capability outside of epidemic periods while rapid tests were reasonably accurate and may provide an acceptable alternative to RT-PCR testing in resource-limited areas.