Full adherence to cirrhosis quality indicators is associated with lower mortality in acute variceal bleeding: Nationwide audit.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major complication in patients with cirrhosis. Using a nationwide AVB audit, we performed a nested cohort study to determine whether full adherence to the AVB quality indicator (QI) improves clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We assessed real-world adherence to AVB QI among patients with cirrhosis admitted for AVB in all public hospitals in Singapore between January 2015 and December 2020. Full adherence was considered when all 5 QIs were fulfilled: prophylactic antibiotics, vasoactive agents, timely endoscopy, endoscopic hemostasis during index endoscopy, and nonselective beta-blockers after AVB. We compare 6-week mortality between the full adherence and suboptimal adherence groups using a propensity-matched cohort.A total of 989 patients with AVB were included. Full adherence to all AVB QI was suboptimal (56.5%). Analysis of the propensity-matched cohort with comparable baseline characteristics showed that full adherence was associated with a lower risk of early infection (20.0% vs. 26.9%), early rebleeding (5.2% vs. 10.2%), and mortality at 6 weeks (8.2% vs. 19.7%) and 1 year (21.3% vs. 35.4%) ( p <0.05 for all). While full adherence was associated with a lower 6-week mortality regardless of the MELD score, nonadherence was associated with a higher 6-week mortality despite a lower predicted risk of 6-week mortality. Despite high adherence to the recommended process measures, patients with CTP-C remain at a higher risk of rebleeding, 6-week and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Full adherence to the AVB QI should be the target for quality improvement in patients with cirrhosis.

Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with cACLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, patients with cACLD and serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM in predicting LRE using Cox regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of latest liver stiffness measurement. In all, 480 patients with cACLD with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (IQR: 45 -92) months, 32% experienced a LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved cACLD were more likely to be nondiabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, neither the prior LSM nor the LSM slope added predictive value to latest liver stiffness measurement. CONCLUSIONS: Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in patients with cACLD.

Performance of spleen stiffness measurement to rule out high-risk varices in patients with porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Baveno VII consensus suggests that screening endoscopy can be spared in patients with compensated cirrhosis when spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is ≤40 kPa as they have a low probability of high-risk varices (HRV). Conversely, screening endoscopy is required in all patients with porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder (PSVD). This study aimed to evaluate the performance of SSM-VCTE to rule out HRV in patients with PSVD and signs of portal hypertension. APPROACH RESULTS: We retrospectively included patients with PSVD, ≥1 sign of portal hypertension, without history of variceal bleeding, who underwent a SSM-VCTE within 2 years before or after an upper endoscopy in 21 VALDIG centers, divided into a derivation and a validation cohort. 154 patients were included in the derivation cohort; 43% had HRV. By multivariable logistic regression analysis, SSM-VCTE >40 kPa and serum bilirubin ≥1 mg/dL were associated with HRV. SSM-VCTE ≤40 kPa combined with bilirubin <1 mg/dL had a sensitivity of 96% to rule out HRV, and could spare 38% of screening endoscopies, with 4% of HRV missed, and a 95% negative predictive value (NPV). In the validation cohort, including 155 patients, SSM combined with bilirubin could spare 21% of screening endoscopies, with 4% of HRV missed and a 94% NPV. CONCLUSION: This study gathering a total of 309 PSVD patients showed that SSM-VCTE ≤40 kPa combined with bilirubin <1 mg/dL identifies patients with PSVD and portal hypertension with a probability of HRV <5%, in whom screening endoscopy can be spared.

Development and validation of a machine learning-based model for varices screening in compensated cirrhosis (CHESS2001): an international multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevalence of high-risk varices (HRV) is low among compensated cirrhotic patients undergoing EGD. Our study aimed to identify a novel machine learning (ML)-based model, named ML EGD, for ruling out HRV and avoiding unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: An international cohort from 17 institutions from China, Singapore, and India were enrolled (CHESS2001). The variables with the top 3 importance scores (liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin) were selected by the Shapley additive explanation and input into a light gradient-boosting machine algorithm to develop ML EGD for identification of HRV. Furthermore, we built a web-based calculator for ML EGD, which is free with open access (http://www.pan-chess.cn/calculator/MLEGD_score). Unnecessary EGDs that were not performed and the rates of missed HRV were used to assess the efficacy and safety for varices screening. RESULTS: Of 2794 enrolled patients, 1283 patients formed a real-world cohort from 1 university hospital in China used to develop and internally validate the performance of ML EGD for varices screening. They were randomly assigned into the training (n = 1154) and validation (n = 129) cohorts with a ratio of 9:1. In the training cohort, ML EGD spared 607 (52.6%) unnecessary EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.6%. In the validation cohort, ML EGD spared 75 (58.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 1.4%. To externally test the performance of ML EGD, 966 patients from 14 university hospitals in China (test cohort 1) and 545 from 2 hospitals in Singapore and India (test cohort 2) comprised the 2 test cohorts. In test cohort 1, ML EGD spared 506 (52.4%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 2.8%. In test cohort 2, ML EGD spared 224 (41.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.1%. When compared with the Baveno VI criteria, ML EGD spared more screening EGDs in all cohorts (training cohort, 52.6% vs 29.4%; validation cohort, 58.1% vs 44.2%; test cohort 1, 52.4% vs 26.5%; test cohort 2, 41.1% vs 21.1%, respectively; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a novel model based on liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin, named ML EGD, as a free web-based calculator. ML EGD could efficiently help rule out HRV and avoid unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT04307264.).

Albumin therapy for hepatic encephalopathy: current evidence and controversies.

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication that occurs in 16-21% of end-stage cirrhosis patients. Emerging evidence suggests that systemic inflammation and oxidative stress may play a role in the development of HE. Recent understanding on the anti-inflammatory properties of human albumin has led to growing interest of using human albumin for the treatment and prevention of HE among decompensated patients. In this review, we aim to discuss the current evidence and controversies of using human albumin for the treatment and prevention of HE in advanced cirrhosis patients.

A Novel SAVE Score to Stratify Decompensation Risk in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease (CHESS2102): An International Multicenter Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient is the best predictor of hepatic decompensation. This study aimed at developing an alternative risk prediction model to provide a decompensation risk assessment in cACLD. METHODS: Patients with cACLD were retrospectively included from 9 international centers within the Portal Hypertension Alliance in China (CHESS) network. Baseline variables from a Japanese cohort of 197 patients with cACLD were examined and fitted a Cox hazard regression model to develop a specific score for predicting hepatic decompensation. The novel score was validated in an external cohort (n = 770) from 5 centers in China, Singapore, Korea, and Egypt, and was further assessed for the ability of predicting clinically significant portal hypertension in a hepatic venous pressure gradient cohort (n = 285). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation were identified including Stiffness of liver, Albumin, Varices, and platElets and fitted to develop the novel score, termed "SAVE" score. This score performed significantly better (all P < 0.05) than other assessed methods with a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.94) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.92) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The decompensation risk was best stratified by the cutoff values at -6 and -4.5. The 5-year cumulative incidences of decompensation were 0%, 24.9%, and 69.0% in the low-risk, middle-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively ( P < 0.001). The SAVE score also accurately predicted clinically significant portal hypertension (AUC, 0.85 95% CI: 0.80-0.90). DISCUSSION: The SAVE score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice to accurately predict the individual risk of hepatic decompensation in cACLD.

Does preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt improve survival after acute variceal bleeding? Systematic review, meta-analysis, and trial sequential analysis of randomized trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (p-TIPSS) after acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is advocated. However, when compared with the current standard of care, the survival benefit of p-TIPSS is questionable. We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis, and trial sequential analysis of randomized control trials (RCTs) to assess the survival benefit of p-TIPSS in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. METHODS: Comprehensive literature search of three bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane) was conducted from inception till May 2021. All study types evaluating the survival benefit of p-TIPSS in AVB were considered for inclusion. The relative risk (RR) of mortality and rebleeding at 6 weeks and mortality at 1 year with a random-effects model was computed. Trial sequential analysis was performed for the primary outcome of 6-week mortality. RESULTS: A total of nine studies (four RCTs and five cohort studies) comprising 2861 patients with AVB were included. The overall pooled risks of mortality at 6 weeks and 1 year were 17.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.5-19.3%) and 26.7% (95% CI: 25.0-28.3%), respectively. Although p-TIPSS was associated with lower 6-week rebleeding risk (RR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.13-0.29, I2  = 0%), data from pooled RCTs showed no significant difference in mortality at 6 weeks (RR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.08-1.36, I2  = 63%) or at 1 year (RR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.51-1.14, I2  = 30%). Using trial sequential analysis, required sample size to detect a 20% relative risk reduction in mortality at 6 weeks with p-TIPSS was estimated to be 6317, which is beyond the total number of patients available for analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis found that the available data from RCTs are insufficient to confer 6-week mortality benefit with p-TIPSS compared with standard of care; thus, adequately powered RCTs are required.

CHESS-ALARM score to stratify decompensation risk in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients: An international multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A combination of platelet and elastography (PE criteria) was proposed to identify compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients at risk of liver decompensation. We aim to validate and refine PE criteria by developing a new predictive score to predict decompensation in Asian cACLD patients. METHODS: An international cohort of 633 cACLD patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy performed were included. We validated PE criteria to predict first liver decompensation using competing risk analysis, with death and hepatocellular carcinoma as competing events. We developed a predictive model using proportional subdistribution hazard regression. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and ALBI-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under operative characteristic curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Sixty patients developed decompensation over the median follow-up of 39 months. Favorable Baveno VI status ruled out cACLD patients at risk of liver decompensation. LSM > 25 kPa was suboptimal to predict cACLD patients who will develop liver decompensation. We developed CHESS-ALARM score by incorporating age, platelet, and gender into LSM. CHESS-ALARM score (tAUC = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.94) has significantly higher accuracy than MELD (tAUC: 0.61), ALBI (tAUC: 0.62), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC: 0.70), and LSM > 25 kPa (tAUC: 0.54) to predict liver decompensation at 5 years (P < 0.05 for all). Patients with CHESS-ALARM score ≥ -0.37 had an 11-fold higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio = 11.2, 95% CI: 5.1-24.5). CONCLUSION: CHESS-ALARM score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice of cACLD patients to estimate individual risk of liver decompensation; however, more data are required in morbidly obese cACLD patients of nonviral etiology.

Outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with chronic liver disease: An international registry study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) and cirrhosis are associated with immune dysregulation, leading to concerns that affected patients may be at risk of adverse outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to determine the impact of COVID-19 on patients with pre-existing liver disease, which currently remains ill-defined. METHODS: Between 25th March and 8th July 2020, data on 745 patients with CLD and SARS-CoV-2 (including 386 with and 359 without cirrhosis) were collected by 2 international registries and compared to data on non-CLD patients with SARS-CoV-2 from a UK hospital network. RESULTS: Mortality was 32% in patients with cirrhosis compared to 8% in those without (p <0.001). Mortality in patients with cirrhosis increased according to Child-Pugh class (A [19%], B [35%], C [51%]) and the main cause of death was from respiratory failure (71%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics, factors associated with death in the total CLD cohort were age (odds ratio [OR] 1.02; 1.01-1.04), Child-Pugh A (OR 1.90; 1.03-3.52), B (OR 4.14; 2.4-7.65), or C (OR 9.32; 4.80-18.08) cirrhosis and alcohol-related liver disease (OR 1.79; 1.03-3.13). Compared to patients without CLD (n = 620), propensity-score-matched analysis revealed significant increases in mortality in those with Child-Pugh B (+20.0% [8.8%-31.3%]) and C (+38.1% [27.1%-49.2%]) cirrhosis. Acute hepatic decompensation occurred in 46% of patients with cirrhosis, of whom 21% had no respiratory symptoms. Half of those with hepatic decompensation had acute-on-chronic liver failure. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest such cohort to date, we demonstrate that baseline liver disease stage and alcohol-related liver disease are independent risk factors for death from COVID-19. These data have important implications for the risk stratification of patients with CLD across the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic. LAY SUMMARY: This international registry study demonstrates that patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of death from COVID-19. Mortality from COVID-19 was particularly high among patients with more advanced cirrhosis and those with alcohol-related liver disease.

Efficacy and Safety of Statin for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention Among Chronic Liver Disease Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a deadly complication among patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). Controversies on the efficacy and safety of statin to prevent HCC among patients with CLD remain despite the growing evidences. We aim to investigate the efficacy and safety of using statin for HCC prevention among adult with CLD. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of 4 electronic databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane library, and ClinicalTrial.gov) up to April 15, 2020. We selected all types of studies evaluating the statin use and the risk of HCC among CLD patients, regardless of language, region, publication date, or status. The primary endpoint was the pooled risk of HCC. The secondary endpoint was the risk of statin-associated myopathy. RESULT: From 583 citations, we included a total of 13 studies (1,742,260 subjects, 7 types of statins), fulfilling the inclusion criteria, evaluating efficacy and safety of statin in CLD patients for HCC prevention. All studies were observational (2 nested case-control studies, 11 cohort studies), and no randomised trial was identified. We found that statin user has a lower pooled risk of HCC development (hazard ratio=0.57, 95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.62, I2=42%). HCC reduction was consistent among statin users in cirrhosis, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus infections. The risk of statin-associated myopathy was similar between statin user and nonuser (hazard ratio=1.07, 95% confidence interval=0.91-1.27). CONCLUSION: Statin use was safe and associated with a lower pooled risk of HCC development among adults with CLD. Given the bias with observation studies, prospective randomised trial is needed to confirm this finding.

Artificial intelligence and polyp detection in colonoscopy: Use of a single neural network to achieve rapid polyp localization for clinical use.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Artificial intelligence has been extensively studied to assist clinicians in polyp detection, but such systems usually require expansive processing power, making them prohibitively expensive and hindering wide adaption. The current study used a fast object detection algorithm, known as the YOLOv3 algorithm, to achieve real-time polyp detection on a laptop. In addition, we evaluated and classified the causes of false detections to further improve accuracy. METHODS: The YOLOv3 algorithm was trained and validated with 6038 and 2571 polyp images, respectively. Videos from live colonoscopies in a tertiary center and those obtained from public databases were used for the training and validation sets. The algorithm was tested on 10 unseen videos from the CVC-Video ClinicDB dataset. Only bounding boxes with an intersection over union area of > 0.3 were considered positive predictions. RESULTS: Polyp detection rate in our study was 100%, with the algorithm able to detect every polyp in each video. Sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score were 74.1%, 85.1%, and 83.3, respectively. The algorithm achieved a speed of 61.2 frames per second (fps) on a desktop RTX2070 GPU and 27.2 fps on a laptop GTX2060 GPU. Nearly a quarter of false negatives happened when the polyps were at the corner of an image. Image blurriness accounted for approximately 3% and 9% of false positive and false negative detections, respectively. CONCLUSION: The YOLOv3 algorithm can achieve real-time poly detection with high accuracy and speed on a desktop GPU, making it low cost and accessible to most endoscopy centers worldwide.

Efficacy and safety of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir in a real-world chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Real-world data on sofosbuvir/velpatasvir with and without ribavirin (SOF/VEL ± RBV), particularly among patients with genotype 3 (GT3) decompensated cirrhosis, prior treatment, coinfection, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are scarce. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of SOF/VEL ± RBV in a real-world setting that included both community and incarcerated GT3 hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. METHODS: We included all GT3 HCV patients treated with SOF/VEL ± RBV in our institution. The primary outcome measure was the overall sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12), reported in both intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol analyses. The secondary outcome measures were SVR12 stratified by the presence of decompensated cirrhosis, prior treatment, HCC, and HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfection and the occurrence rate of serious adverse events requiring treatment cessation or hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 779 HCV patients were treated with 12 weeks of SOF/VEL ± RBV, of which 85% were treated during incarceration. Among the 530 GT3 HCV patients, 31% had liver cirrhosis, and 6% were treatment-experienced. The overall SVR12 for GT3 was 98.7% (95% confidence interval: 97.3%, 99.5%) and 99.2% (95% confidence interval: 98.1%, 99.8%) in ITT and per-protocol analyses, respectively. High SVR12 was also seen in ITT analysis among GT3 HCV patients with decompensated cirrhosis (88%), prior treatment (100%), HCC (100%), and HIV/hepatitis B virus coinfection (100%). Apart from one patient who developed myositis, no other serious adverse events were observed. CONCLUSION: The SOF/VEL ± RBV is a safe and efficacious treatment option for GT3 HCV patients in a real-world setting. SOF/VEL with RBV may be considered for decompensated GT3 HCV patients.

Validation of the Expanded Baveno-VI Criteria for Screening Gastroscopy in Asian Patients with Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: The expanded Baveno-VI criteria may further reduce the need for screening gastroscopy compared to Baveno-VI criteria. AIM: We sought to validate the performance of these criteria in a cohort of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients with predominantly hepatitis B infection. METHODS: Consecutive cACLD patients from 2006 to 2012 with paired liver stiffness measurements and screening gastroscopy within 1 year were included. The expanded Baveno-VI criteria were applied to evaluate the sensitivity (SS), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for the presence of high-risk varices (HRV). RESULTS: Among 165 cACLD patients included, 17 (10.3%) had HRV. The commonest etiology of cACLD was chronic hepatitis B (36.4%) followed by NAFLD (20.0%). Application of expanded Baveno-VI criteria avoided more screening gastroscopy (43.6%) as compared to the original Baveno-VI criteria (18.8%) without missing more HRV (1 with both criteria). The overall SS, SP, PPV and NPV of the expanded Baveno-VI criteria in predicting HRV were 94.1%, 48.0%, 17.2% and 98.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Application of the expanded Baveno-VI criteria can safely avoid screening gastroscopy in 43.6% of cACLD patients with an excellent ability to exclude HRV.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the COVID-19 associated liver injury.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected more than 5 million people globally. Data on the prevalence and degree of COVID-19 associated liver injury among patients with COVID-19 remain limited. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prevalence and degree of liver injury between patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of three electronic databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library), from inception to 24th April 2020. We included all adult human studies (>20 subjects) regardless of language, region or publication date or status. We assessed the pooled odds ratio (OR), mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) using the random-effects model. RESULTS: Among 1543 citations, there were 24 studies (5961 subjects) which fulfilled our inclusion criteria. The pooled odds ratio for elevated ALT (OR = 2.5, 95%CI: 1.6-3.7, I2 = 57%), AST (OR = 3.4, 95%CI: 2.3-5.0, I2 = 56%), hyperbilirubinemia (OR = 1.7, 95%CI: 1.2-2.5, I2 = 0%) and hypoalbuminemia (OR = 7.1, 95%CI: 2.1-24.1, I2 = 71%) were higher subjects in critical COVID-19. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 associated liver injury is more common in severe COVID-19 than non-severe COVID-19. Physicians should be aware of possible progression to severe disease in subjects with COVID-19-associated liver injury.