Proportional rates models for multivariate panel count data.

Multivariate panel count data arise when there are multiple types of recurrent events, and the observation for each study subject consists of the number of recurrent events of each type between two successive examinations. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on multiple types of recurrent events through proportional rates models, while leaving the dependence structures of the related recurrent events completely unspecified. We employ nonparametric maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation under the working assumptions that all types of events are independent and each type of event is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, and we develop a simple and stable EM-type algorithm. We show that the resulting estimators of the regression parameters are consistent and asymptotically normal, with a covariance matrix that can be estimated consistently by a sandwich estimator. In addition, we develop a class of graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the fitted model. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and analysis of a skin cancer clinical trial.

Association of Primary and Booster Vaccination and Prior Infection With SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe COVID-19 Outcomes.

Importance: Data about the association of COVID-19 vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes may guide prevention strategies. Objective: To estimate the time-varying association of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study of 10.6 million residents in North Carolina from March 2, 2020, through June 3, 2022. Exposures: COVID-19 primary vaccine series and boosters and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rate ratio (RR) of SARS-CoV-2 infection and hazard ratio (HR) of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death. Results: The median age among the 10.6 million participants was 39 years; 51.3% were female, 71.5% were White, and 9.9% were Hispanic. As of June 3, 2022, 67% of participants had been vaccinated. There were 2 771 364 SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a hospitalization rate of 6.3% and mortality rate of 1.4%. The adjusted RR of the primary vaccine series compared with being unvaccinated against infection became 0.53 (95% CI, 0.52-0.53) for BNT162b2, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.51-0.53) for mRNA-1273, and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.50-0.53) for Ad26.COV2.S 10 months after the first dose, but the adjusted HR for hospitalization remained at 0.29 (95% CI, 0.24-0.35) for BNT162b2, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.32) for mRNA-1273, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.29-0.42) for Ad26.COV2.S and the adjusted HR of death remained at 0.23 (95% CI, 0.17-0.29) for BNT162b2, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.20) for mRNA-1273, and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.19-0.31) for Ad26.COV2.S. For the BNT162b2 primary series, boosting in December 2021 with BNT162b2 had the adjusted RR relative to primary series of 0.39 (95% CI, 0.38-0.40) and boosting with mRNA-1273 had the adjusted RR of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.30-0.34) against infection after 1 month and boosting with BNT162b2 had the adjusted RR of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.86) and boosting with mRNA-1273 had the adjusted RR of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.62) after 3 months. Among all participants, the adjusted RR of Omicron infection compared with no prior infection was estimated at 0.23 (95% CI, 0.22-0.24) against infection, and the adjusted HRs were 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) against hospitalization and 0.11 (95% CI, 0.08-0.15) against death after 4 months. Conclusions and Relevance: Receipt of primary COVID-19 vaccine series compared with being unvaccinated, receipt of boosters compared with primary vaccination, and prior infection compared with no prior infection were all significantly associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including Omicron) and resulting hospitalization and death. The associated protection waned over time, especially against infection.

Impact of booster vaccination interval on SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated how booster interval affects the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19-related hospitalization and death in different age groups. METHODS: We collected data on booster receipts and Covid-19 outcomes between September 22, 2021 and February 9, 2023 for 5,769,205 North Carolina residents ≥12 years of age who had completed their primary vaccination series. We related Covid-19 outcomes to baseline characteristics and booster doses through Cox regression models. RESULTS: For adults ≥65 years of age, boosting every 9 months was associated with proportionate reductions (compared with no boosting) of 18.9% (95% CI, 18.5-19.4) in the cumulative frequency of infection, 37.8% (95% CI, 35.3-40.3) in the cumulative risk of hospitalization or death, and 40.9% (95% CI, 37.2-44.7) in the cumulative risk of death at 2 years after completion of primary vaccination. The reductions were lower by boosting every 12 months and higher by boosting every 6 months. The reductions were smaller for individuals 12-64 years of age. CONCLUSION: Boosting at a shorter interval was associated with a greater reduction in Covid-19 outcomes, especially hospitalization and death. Frequent boosting conferred greater benefits for individuals aged ≥65 than for individuals aged 12-64.

Marginal proportional hazards models for multivariate interval-censored data.

Multivariate interval-censored data arise when there are multiple types of events or clusters of study subjects, such that the event times are potentially correlated and when each event is only known to occur over a particular time interval. We formulate the effects of potentially time-varying covariates on the multivariate event times through marginal proportional hazards models while leaving the dependence structures of the related event times unspecified. We construct the nonparametric pseudolikelihood under the working assumption that all event times are independent, and we provide a simple and stable EM-type algorithm. The resulting nonparametric maximum pseudolikelihood estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, with a limiting covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated by a sandwich estimator under arbitrary dependence structures for the related event times. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methods through extensive simulation studies and present an application to data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Effects of COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on omicron infection and severe outcomes in children under 12 years of age in the USA: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the protection conferred by COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against omicron (B.1.1.529) infection in young children are scarce. We aimed to estimate the time-varying effects of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on subsequent omicron infection and severe illness (hospital admission or death) in children younger than 12 years of age. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we obtained individual-level records on vaccination with the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines and clinical outcomes from the North Carolina COVID-19 Surveillance System and the COVID-19 Vaccine Management System for 1 368 721 North Carolina residents aged 11 years or younger from Oct 29, 2021 (Oct 29, 2021 for children aged 5-11 years and June 17, 2022 for children aged 0-4 years), to Jan 6, 2023. We used Cox regression to estimate the time-varying effects of primary and booster vaccination and previous infection on the risks of omicron infection, hospital admission, and death. FINDINGS: For children 5-11 years of age, the effectiveness of primary vaccination against infection, compared with being unvaccinated, was 59·9% (95% CI 58·5-61·2) at 1 month, 33·7% (32·6-34·8) at 4 months, and 14·9% (95% CI 12·3-17·5) at 10 months after the first dose. Compared with primary vaccination only, the effectiveness of a monovalent booster dose after 1 month was 24·4% (14·4-33·2) and that of a bivalent booster dose was 76·7% (45·7-90·0). The effectiveness of omicron infection against reinfection was 79·9% (78·8-80·9) after 3 months and 53·9% (52·3-55·5) after 6 months. For children 0-4 years of age, the effectiveness of primary vaccination against infection, compared with being unvaccinated, was 63·8% (57·0-69·5) at 2 months and 58·1% (48·3-66·1) at 5 months after the first dose, and the effectiveness of omicron infection against reinfection was 77·3% (75·9-78·6) after 3 months and 64·7% (63·3-66·1) after 6 months. For both age groups, vaccination and previous infection had better effectiveness against severe illness as measured by hospital admission or death as a composite endpoint than against infection. INTERPRETATION: The BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines were effective against omicron infection and severe outcomes in children younger than 12 years, although the effectiveness decreased over time. Bivalent boosters were more effective than monovalent boosters. Immunity acquired via omicron infection was high and waned gradually over time. These findings can be used to develop effective prevention strategies against COVID-19 in children younger than 12 years. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.