Polypill with or without Aspirin in Persons without Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: A polypill comprising statins, multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs, and aspirin has been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned participants without cardiovascular disease who had an elevated INTERHEART Risk Score to receive a polypill (containing 40 mg of simvastatin, 100 mg of atenolol, 25 mg of hydrochlorothiazide, and 10 mg of ramipril) or placebo daily, aspirin (75 mg) or placebo daily, and vitamin D or placebo monthly. We report here the outcomes for the polypill alone as compared with matching placebo, for aspirin alone as compared with matching placebo, and for the polypill plus aspirin as compared with double placebo. For the polypill-alone and polypill-plus-aspirin comparisons, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or revascularization. For the aspirin comparison, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 5713 participants underwent randomization, and the mean follow-up was 4.6 years. The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was lower by approximately 19 mg per deciliter and systolic blood pressure was lower by approximately 5.8 mm Hg with the polypill and with combination therapy than with placebo. The primary outcome for the polypill comparison occurred in 126 participants (4.4%) in the polypill group and in 157 (5.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.00). The primary outcome for the aspirin comparison occurred in 116 participants (4.1%) in the aspirin group and in 134 (4.7%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.10). The primary outcome for the polypill-plus-aspirin comparison occurred in 59 participants (4.1%) in the combined-treatment group and in 83 (5.8%) in the double-placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.97). The incidence of hypotension or dizziness was higher in groups that received the polypill than in their respective placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment with a polypill plus aspirin led to a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than did placebo among participants without cardiovascular disease who were at intermediate cardiovascular risk. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; TIPS-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01646437.).

Glycemic Index, Glycemic Load, and Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Most data regarding the association between the glycemic index and cardiovascular disease come from high-income Western populations, with little information from non-Western countries with low or middle incomes. To fill this gap, data are needed from a large, geographically diverse population. METHODS: This analysis includes 137,851 participants between the ages of 35 and 70 years living on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.5 years. We used country-specific food-frequency questionnaires to determine dietary intake and estimated the glycemic index and glycemic load on the basis of the consumption of seven categories of carbohydrate foods. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models. The primary outcome was a composite of a major cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) or death from any cause. RESULTS: In the study population, 8780 deaths and 8252 major cardiovascular events occurred during the follow-up period. After performing extensive adjustments comparing the lowest and highest glycemic-index quintiles, we found that a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of a major cardiovascular event or death, both among participants with preexisting cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 1.82) and among those without such disease (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.34). Among the components of the primary outcome, a high glycemic index was also associated with an increased risk of death from cardiovascular causes. The results with respect to glycemic load were similar to the findings regarding the glycemic index among the participants with cardiovascular disease at baseline, but the association was not significant among those without preexisting cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries.

AIMS: To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison). CONCLUSION: A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

Metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors and cardiovascular disease in women compared with men in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of the PURE study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on the prevalence of risk factors and their associations with incident cardiovascular disease in women compared with men, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we enrolled participants from the general population from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries and followed them up for approximately 10 years. We recorded information on participants' metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors. For this analysis, we included participants aged 35-70 years at baseline without a history of cardiovascular disease, with at least one follow-up visit. The primary outcome was a composite of major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular disease deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We report the prevalence of each risk factor in women and men, their hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with major cardiovascular disease. The PURE study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03225586. FINDINGS: In this analysis, we included 155 724 participants enrolled and followed-up between Jan 5, 2005, and Sept 13, 2021, (90 934 [58·4%] women and 64 790 [41·6%] men), with a median follow-up of 10·1 years (IQR 8·5-12·0). At study entry, the mean age of women was 49·8 years (SD 9·7) compared with 50·8 years (9·8) in men. As of data cutoff (Sept 13, 2021), 4280 major cardiovascular disease events had occurred in women (age-standardised incidence rate of 5·0 events [95% CI 4·9-5·2] per 1000 person-years) and 4911 in men (8·2 [8·0-8·4] per 1000 person-years). Compared with men, women presented with a more favourable cardiovascular risk profile, especially at younger ages. The HRs for metabolic risk factors were similar in women and men, except for non-HDL cholesterol, for which high non-HDL cholesterol was associated with an HR for major cardiovascular disease of 1·11 (95% CI 1·01-1·21) in women and 1·28 (1·19-1·39) in men, with a consistent pattern for higher risk among men than among women with other lipid markers. Symptoms of depression had a HR of 1·09 (0·98-1·21) in women and 1·42 (1·25-1·60) in men. By contrast, consumption of a diet with a PURE score of 4 or lower (score ranges from 0 to 8), was more strongly associated with major cardiovascular disease in women (1·17 [1·08-1·26]) than in men (1·07 [0·99-1·15]). The total PAFs associated with behavioural and psychosocial risk factors were greater in men (15·7%) than in women (8·4%) predominantly due to the larger contribution of smoking to PAFs in men (ie, 1·3% [95% CI 0·5-2·1] in women vs 10·7% [8·8-12·6] in men). INTERPRETATION: Lipid markers and depression are more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in men than in women, whereas diet is more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. The similar associations of other risk factors with cardiovascular disease in women and men emphasise the importance of a similar strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in men and women. FUNDING: Funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.

Associations of Antibiotics, Hormonal Therapies, Oral Contraceptives, and Long-Term NSAIDS With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results From the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several medications have been suspected to contribute to the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study assessed the association between medication use and the risk of developing IBD using the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology cohort. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 133,137 individuals between the ages of 20 and 80 from 24 countries. Country-specific validated questionnaires documented baseline and follow-up medication use. Participants were followed up prospectively at least every 3 years. The main outcome was the development of IBD, including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Short-term (baseline but not follow-up use) and long-term use (baseline and subsequent follow-up use) were evaluated. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 11.0 years (interquartile range, 9.2-12.2 y), there were 571 incident IBD cases (143 CD and 428 UC). Incident IBD was associated significantly with baseline antibiotic (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.67-4.73; P = .0001) and hormonal medication use (aOR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.78-11.01; P = .001). Among females, previous or current oral contraceptive use also was associated with IBD development (aOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.70-2.77; P < .001). Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users also were observed to have increased odds of IBD (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.64; P = .002), which was driven by long-term use (aOR, 5.58; 95% CI, 2.26-13.80; P < .001). All significant results were consistent in direction for CD and UC with low heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics, hormonal medications, oral contraceptives, and long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use were associated with increased odds of incident IBD after adjustment for covariates.

Personal and household PM2.5 and black carbon exposure measures and respiratory symptoms in 8 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels has been associated with adverse respiratory effects, but most studies use surveys of fuel use to define HAP exposure, rather than on actual air pollution exposure measurements. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between household and personal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) measures and respiratory symptoms. METHODS: As part of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology Air Pollution study, we analyzed 48-h household and personal PM2.5 and BC measurements for 870 individuals using different cooking fuels from 62 communities in 8 countries (Bangladesh, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe). Self-reported respiratory symptoms were collected after monitoring. Associations between PM2.5 and BC exposures and respiratory symptoms were examined using logistic regression models, controlling for individual, household, and community covariates. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) of household and personal PM2.5 was 73.5 (119.1) and 65.3 (91.5) µg/m3, and for household and personal BC was 3.4 (8.3) and 2.5 (4.9) x10-5 m-1, respectively. We observed associations between household PM2.5 and wheeze (OR: 1.25; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.46), cough (OR: 1.22; 95%CI: 1.06, 1.39), and sputum (OR: 1.26; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.44), as well as exposure to household BC and wheeze (OR: 1.20; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.39) and sputum (OR: 1.20; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.36), per IQR increase. We observed associations between personal PM2.5 and wheeze (OR: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.50) and sputum (OR: 1.19; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.41). For household PM2.5 and BC, associations were generally stronger for females compared to males. Models using an indicator variable of solid versus clean fuels resulted in larger OR estimates with less precision. CONCLUSIONS: We used measurements of household and personal air pollution for individuals using different cooking fuels and documented strong associations with respiratory symptoms.

Recognition and management of community-acquired acute kidney injury in low-resource settings in the ISN 0by25 trial: A multi-country feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is increasingly encountered in community settings and contributes to morbidity, mortality, and increased resource utilization worldwide. In low-resource settings, lack of awareness of and limited access to diagnostic and therapeutic interventions likely influence patient management. We evaluated the feasibility of the use of point-of-care (POC) serum creatinine and urine dipstick testing with an education and training program to optimize the identification and management of AKI in the community in 3 low-resource countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patients presenting to healthcare centers (HCCs) from 1 October 2016 to 29 September 2017 in the cities Cochabamba, Bolivia; Dharan, Nepal; and Blantyre, Malawi, were assessed utilizing a symptom-based risk score to identify patients at moderate to high AKI risk. POC testing for serum creatinine and urine dipstick at enrollment were utilized to classify these patients as having chronic kidney disease (CKD), acute kidney disease (AKD), or no kidney disease (NKD). Patients were followed for a maximum of 6 months with repeat POC testing. AKI development was assessed at 7 days, kidney recovery at 1 month, and progression to CKD and mortality at 3 and 6 months. Following an observation phase to establish baseline data, care providers and physicians in the HCCs were trained with a standardized protocol utilizing POC tests to evaluate and manage patients, guided by physicians in referral hospitals connected via mobile digital technology. We evaluated 3,577 patients, and 2,101 were enrolled: 978 in the observation phase and 1,123 in the intervention phase. Due to the high number of patients attending the centers daily, it was not feasible to screen all patients to assess the actual incidence of AKI. Of enrolled patients, 1,825/2,101 (87%) were adults, 1,117/2,101 (53%) were females, 399/2,101 (19%) were from Bolivia, 813/2,101 (39%) were from Malawi, and 889/2,101 (42%) were from Nepal. The age of enrolled patients ranged from 1 month to 96 years, with a mean of 43 years (SD 21) and a median of 43 years (IQR 27-62). Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (418/2,101; 20%). At enrollment, 197/2,101 (9.4%) had CKD, and 1,199/2,101 (57%) had AKD. AKI developed in 30% within 7 days. By 1 month, 268/978 (27%) patients in the observation phase and 203/1,123 (18%) in the intervention phase were lost to follow-up. In the intervention phase, more patients received fluids (observation 714/978 [73%] versus intervention 874/1,123 [78%]; 95% CI 0.63, 0.94; p = 0.012), hospitalization was reduced (observation 578/978 [59%] versus intervention 548/1,123 [49%]; 95% CI 0.55, 0.79; p < 0.001), and admitted patients with severe AKI did not show a significantly lower mortality during follow-up (observation 27/135 [20%] versus intervention 21/178 [11.8%]; 95% CI 0.98, 3.52; p = 0.057). Of 504 patients with kidney function assessed during the 6-month follow-up, de novo CKD arose in 79/484 (16.3%), with no difference between the observation and intervention phase (95% CI 0.91, 2.47; p = 0.101). Overall mortality was 273/2,101 (13%) and was highest in those who had CKD (24/106; 23%), followed by those with AKD (128/760; 17%), AKI (85/628; 14%), and NKD (36/607; 6%). The main limitation of our study was the inability to determine the actual incidence of kidney dysfunction in the health centers as it was not feasible to screen all the patients due to the high numbers seen daily. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter, non-randomized feasibility study in low-resource settings demonstrates that it is feasible to implement a comprehensive program utilizing POC testing and protocol-based management to improve the recognition and management of AKI and AKD in high-risk patients in primary care.

Variations between women and men in risk factors, treatments, cardiovascular disease incidence, and death in 27 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Some studies, mainly from high-income countries (HICs), report that women receive less care (investigations and treatments) for cardiovascular disease than do men and might have a higher risk of death. However, very few studies systematically report risk factors, use of primary or secondary prevention medications, incidence of cardiovascular disease, or death in populations drawn from the community. Given that most cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a need for comprehensive information comparing treatments and outcomes between women and men in HICs, middle-income countries, and low-income countries from community-based population studies. METHODS: In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological study (PURE), individuals aged 35-70 years from urban and rural communities in 27 countries were considered for inclusion. We recorded information on participants' sociodemographic characteristics, risk factors, medication use, cardiac investigations, and interventions. 168 490 participants who enrolled in the first two of the three phases of PURE were followed up prospectively for incident cardiovascular disease and death. FINDINGS: From Jan 6, 2005 to May 6, 2019, 202 072 individuals were recruited to the study. The mean age of women included in the study was 50·8 (SD 9·9) years compared with 51·7 (10) years for men. Participants were followed up for a median of 9·5 (IQR 8·5-10·9) years. Women had a lower cardiovascular disease risk factor burden using two different risk scores (INTERHEART and Framingham). Primary prevention strategies, such as adoption of several healthy lifestyle behaviours and use of proven medicines, were more frequent in women than men. Incidence of cardiovascular disease (4·1 [95% CI 4·0-4·2] for women vs 6·4 [6·2-6·6] for men per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·72-0·79]) and all-cause death (4·5 [95% CI 4·4-4·7] for women vs 7·4 [7·2-7·7] for men per 1000 person-years; aHR 0·62 [95% CI 0·60-0·65]) were also lower in women. By contrast, secondary prevention treatments, cardiac investigations, and coronary revascularisation were less frequent in women than men with coronary artery disease in all groups of countries. Despite this, women had lower risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease events (20·0 [95% CI 18·2-21·7] versus 27·7 [95% CI 25·6-29·8] per 1000 person-years in men, adjusted hazard ratio 0·73 [95% CI 0·64-0·83]) and women had lower 30-day mortality after a new cardiovascular disease event compared with men (22% in women versus 28% in men; p<0·0001). Differences between women and men in treatments and outcomes were more marked in LMICs with little differences in HICs in those with or without previous cardiovascular disease. INTERPRETATION: Treatments for cardiovascular disease are more common in women than men in primary prevention, but the reverse is seen in secondary prevention. However, consistently better outcomes are observed in women than in men, both in those with and without previous cardiovascular disease. Improving cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment, especially in LMICs, should be vigorously pursued in both women and men. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Variations in common diseases, hospital admissions, and deaths in middle-aged adults in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches. METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years. FINDINGS: This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs. INTERPRETATION: Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155 722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels. METHODS: In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs. INTERPRETATION: Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Adverse health impacts of cooking with kerosene: A multi-country analysis within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Kerosene, which was until recently considered a relatively clean household fuel, is still widely used in low- and middle-income countries for cooking and lighting. However, there is little data on its health effects. We examined cardiorespiratory effects and mortality in households using kerosene as their primary cooking fuel within the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. METHODS: We analyzed baseline and follow-up data on 31,490 individuals from 154 communities in China, India, South Africa, and Tanzania where there was at least 10% kerosene use for cooking at baseline. Baseline comorbidities and health outcomes during follow-up (median 9.4 years) were compared between households with kerosene versus clean (gas or electricity) or solid fuel (biomass and coal) use for cooking. Multi-level marginal regression models adjusted for individual, household, and community level covariates. RESULTS: Higher rates of prevalent respiratory symptoms (e.g. 34% [95% CI:15-57%] more dyspnea with usual activity, 44% [95% CI: 21-72%] more chronic cough or sputum) and lower lung function (differences in FEV1: -46.3 ml (95% CI: -80.5; -12.1) and FVC: -54.7 ml (95% CI: -93.6; -15.8)) were observed at baseline for kerosene compared to clean fuel users. The odds of hypertension was slightly elevated but no associations were observed for blood pressure. Prospectively, kerosene was associated with elevated risks of all-cause (HR: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.14-1.53)) and cardiovascular (HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.00-1.80)) mortality, as well as major fatal and incident non-fatal cardiovascular (HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.08-1.66)) and respiratory (HR: 1.55 (95% CI: 0.98-2.43)) diseases, compared to clean fuel use. Further, compared to solid fuel users, those using kerosene had 20-47% higher risks for the above outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Kerosene use for cooking was associated with higher rates of baseline respiratory morbidity and increased risk of mortality and cardiorespiratory outcomes during follow-up when compared to either clean or solid fuels. Replacing kerosene with cleaner-burning fuels for cooking is recommended.

Cost-effectiveness of acute peritoneal dialysis: Considerations from Africa.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is currently an important public health problem with high morbidity and mortality especially in low- and middle-income countries. In these low-resource settings, prevention of death from severe AKI involves well-coordinated intensive care services, which are often absent or expensive. Provision of cost-effective interventions that are widely available and accessible to everyone is important. Acute peritoneal dialysis (PD), which is technically more economical than hemodialysis, could potentially become a cost-effective solution in the management of severe AKI. An acute PD project in Moshi, Tanzania, was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of PD using a comparison between subsidized and privately procured resources. The average cost per AKI course of treatment with PD when subsidized was USD 420, while if the same treatment was privately procured it was USD 788. Using a WHO guideline that categorizes interventions costing less than once the national annual GDP per capital as highly cost-effective, the Moshi PD project was found to be an appropriate example because the intervention cost (USD 788) was lower than the GDP per capita of Tanzania (USD 879 in 2012). If more countries develop similar programs in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for children, this would allow for increased opportunity for economies of scale in the supply of consumables and could lower costs over the long term. Ministries of health in low-resource settings should consider developing programs for provision of acute PD to achieve equitable, cost-effective, and sustainable programs for treatment of AKI and subsidies to increase access to lower-income patients.

Association of estimated sleep duration and naps with mortality and cardiovascular events: a study of 116 632 people from 21 countries.

AIMS: To investigate the association of estimated total daily sleep duration and daytime nap duration with deaths and major cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the durations of total daily sleep and daytime naps based on the amount of time in bed and self-reported napping time and examined the associations between them and the composite outcome of deaths and major cardiovascular events in 116 632 participants from seven regions. After a median follow-up of 7.8 years, we recorded 4381 deaths and 4365 major cardiovascular events. It showed both shorter (≤6 h/day) and longer (>8 h/day) estimated total sleep durations were associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome when adjusted for age and sex. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviours and health status, a J-shaped association was observed. Compared with sleeping 6-8 h/day, those who slept ≤6 h/day had a non-significant trend for increased risk of the composite outcome [hazard ratio (HR), 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.20]. As estimated sleep duration increased, we also noticed a significant trend for a greater risk of the composite outcome [HR of 1.05 (0.99-1.12), 1.17 (1.09-1.25), and 1.41 (1.30-1.53) for 8-9 h/day, 9-10 h/day, and >10 h/day, Ptrend < 0.0001, respectively]. The results were similar for each of all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Daytime nap duration was associated with an increased risk of the composite events in those with over 6 h of nocturnal sleep duration, but not in shorter nocturnal sleepers (≤6 h). CONCLUSION: Estimated total sleep duration of 6-8 h per day is associated with the lowest risk of deaths and major cardiovascular events. Daytime napping is associated with increased risks of major cardiovascular events and deaths in those with >6 h of nighttime sleep but not in those sleeping ≤6 h/night.

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; ptrend=0·4113). INTERPRETATION: Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Urinary sodium excretion, blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality: a community-level prospective epidemiological cohort study.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends that populations consume less than 2 g/day sodium as a preventive measure against cardiovascular disease, but this target has not been achieved in any country. This recommendation is primarily based on individual-level data from short-term trials of blood pressure (BP) without data relating low sodium intake to reduced cardiovascular events from randomised trials or observational studies. We investigated the associations between community-level mean sodium and potassium intake, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is ongoing in 21 countries. Here we report an analysis done in 18 countries with data on clinical outcomes. Eligible participants were adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular disease, sampled from the general population. We used morning fasting urine to estimate 24 h sodium and potassium excretion as a surrogate for intake. We assessed community-level associations between sodium and potassium intake and BP in 369 communities (all >50 participants) and cardiovascular disease and mortality in 255 communities (all >100 participants), and used individual-level data to adjust for known confounders. FINDINGS: 95 767 participants in 369 communities were assessed for BP and 82 544 in 255 communities for cardiovascular outcomes with follow-up for a median of 8·1 years. 82 (80%) of 103 communities in China had a mean sodium intake greater than 5 g/day, whereas in other countries 224 (84%) of 266 communities had a mean intake of 3-5 g/day. Overall, mean systolic BP increased by 2·86 mm Hg per 1 g increase in mean sodium intake, but positive associations were only seen among the communities in the highest tertile of sodium intake (p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). The association between mean sodium intake and major cardiovascular events showed significant deviations from linearity (p=0·043) due to a significant inverse association in the lowest tertile of sodium intake (lowest tertile <4·43 g/day, mean intake 4·04 g/day, range 3·42-4·43; change -1·00 events per 1000 years, 95% CI -2·00 to -0·01, p=0·0497), no association in the middle tertile (middle tertile 4·43-5·08 g/day, mean intake 4·70 g/day, 4·44-5.05; change 0·24 events per 1000 years, -2·12 to 2·61, p=0·8391), and a positive but non-significant association in the highest tertile (highest tertile >5·08 g/day, mean intake 5·75 g/day, >5·08-7·49; change 0·37 events per 1000 years, -0·03 to 0·78, p=0·0712). A strong association was seen with stroke in China (mean sodium intake 5·58 g/day, 0·42 events per 1000 years, 95% CI 0·16 to 0·67, p=0·0020) compared with in other countries (4·49 g/day, -0·26 events, -0·46 to -0·06, p=0·0124; p<0·0001 for heterogeneity). All major cardiovascular outcomes decreased with increasing potassium intake in all countries. INTERPRETATION: Sodium intake was associated with cardiovascular disease and strokes only in communities where mean intake was greater than 5 g/day. A strategy of sodium reduction in these communities and countries but not in others might be appropriate. FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian Institutes of Health Canada Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, and European Research Council.

Developing nephrology services in low income countries: a case of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The burden of kidney diseases is reported to be higher in lower- and middle-income countries as compared to developed countries, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa are reported to be most affected. Health systems in most sub-Sahara African countries have limited capacity in the form of trained and skilled health care providers, diagnostic support, equipment and policies to provide nephrology services. Several initiatives have been implemented to support establishment of these services. METHODS: This is a situation analysis to examine the nephrology services in Tanzania. It was conducted by interviewing key personnel in institutions providing nephrology services aiming at describing available services and international collaborators supporting nephrology services. RESULTS: Tanzania is a low-income country in Sub-Saharan Africa with a population of more than 55 million that has seen remarkable improvement in the provision of nephrology services and these include increase in the number of nephrologists to 14 in 2018 from one in 2006, increase in number of dialysis units from one unit (0.03 unit per million) before 2007 to 28 units (0.5 units per million) in 2018 and improved diagnostic services with introduction of nephropathology services. Government of Tanzania has been providing kidney transplantation services by funding referral of donor and recipients abroad and has now introduced local transplantation services in two hospitals. There have been strong international collaborators who have supported nephrology services and establishment of nephrology training in Tanzania. CONCLUSION: Tanzania has seen remarkable achievement in provision of nephrology services and provides an interesting model to be used in supporting nephrology services in low income countries.

Process evaluation in the field: global learnings from seven implementation research hypertension projects in low-and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Process evaluation is increasingly recognized as an important component of effective implementation research and yet, there has been surprisingly little work to understand what constitutes best practice. Researchers use different methodologies describing causal pathways and understanding barriers and facilitators to implementation of interventions in diverse contexts and settings. We report on challenges and lessons learned from undertaking process evaluation of seven hypertension intervention trials funded through the Global Alliance of Chronic Diseases (GACD). METHODS: Preliminary data collected from the GACD hypertension teams in 2015 were used to inform a template for data collection. Case study themes included: (1) description of the intervention, (2) objectives of the process evaluation, (3) methods including theoretical basis, (4) main findings of the study and the process evaluation, (5) implications for the project, policy and research practice and (6) lessons for future process evaluations. The information was summarized and reported descriptively and narratively and key lessons were identified. RESULTS: The case studies were from low- and middle-income countries and Indigenous communities in Canada. They were implementation research projects with intervention arm. Six theoretical approaches were used but most comprised of mixed-methods approaches. Each of the process evaluations generated findings on whether interventions were implemented with fidelity, the extent of capacity building, contextual factors and the extent to which relationships between researchers and community impacted on intervention implementation. The most important learning was that although process evaluation is time consuming, it enhances understanding of factors affecting implementation of complex interventions. The research highlighted the need to initiate process evaluations early on in the project, to help guide design of the intervention; and the importance of effective communication between researchers responsible for trial implementation, process evaluation and outcome evaluation. CONCLUSION: This research demonstrates the important role of process evaluation in understanding implementation process of complex interventions. This can help to highlight a broad range of system requirements such as new policies and capacity building to support implementation. Process evaluation is crucial in understanding contextual factors that may impact intervention implementation which is important in considering whether or not the intervention can be translated to other contexts.

Wise Practices for Cultural Safety in Electronic Health Research and Clinical Trials With Indigenous People: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of controlled clinical trial data based on research with Indigenous peoples. A lack of data specific to Indigenous peoples means that new therapeutic methods, such as those involving electronic health (eHealth), will be extrapolated to these groups based on research with other populations. Rigorous, ethical research can be undertaken in collaboration with Indigenous communities but requires careful attention to culturally safe research practices. Literature on how to involve Indigenous peoples in the development and evaluation of eHealth or mobile health apps that responds to the needs of Indigenous patients, providers, and communities is still scarce; however, the need for community-based participatory research to develop culturally safe technologies is emerging as an essential focus in Indigenous eHealth research. To be effective, researchers must first gain an in-depth understanding of Indigenous determinants of health, including the harmful consequences of colonialism. Second, researchers need to learn how colonialism affects the research process. The challenge then for eHealth researchers is to braid Indigenous ethical values with the requirements of good research methodologies into a culturally safe research protocol. OBJECTIVE: A recent systematic review showed that Indigenous peoples are underrepresented in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), primarily due to a lack of attention to providing space for Indigenous perspectives within the study frameworks of RCTs. Given the lack of guidelines for conducting RCTs with Indigenous communities, we conducted an analysis of our large evaluation data set collected in the Diagnosing Hypertension-Engaging Action and Management in Getting Lower Blood Pressure in Indigenous Peoples and Low- and Middle- Income Countries (DREAM-GLOBAL) trial over a period of five years. Our goal is to identify wise practices for culturally safe, collaborative eHealth and RCT research with Indigenous communities. METHODS: We thematically analyzed survey responses and qualitative interview/focus group data that we collected over five years in six culturally diverse Indigenous communities in Canada during the evaluation of the clinical trial DREAM-GLOBAL. We established themes that reflect culturally safe approaches to research and then developed wise practices for culturally safe research in pragmatic eHealth research. RESULTS: Based on our analysis, successful eHealth research in collaboration with Indigenous communities requires a focus on cultural safety that includes: (1) building a respectful relationship; (2) maintaining a respectful relationship; (3) good communication and support for the local team during the RCT; (4) commitment to co-designing the innovation; (5) supporting task shifting with the local team; and (6) reflecting on our mistakes and lessons learned or areas for improvement that support learning and cultural safety. CONCLUSIONS: Based on evaluation data collected in the DREAM-GLOBAL RCT, we found that there are important cultural safety considerations in Indigenous eHealth research. Building on the perspectives of Indigenous staff and patients, we gleaned wise practices for RCTs in Indigenous communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02111226; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02111226.

Interventions to close the divide for women with breast and cervical cancer between low-income and middle-income countries and high-income countries.

Breast and cervical cancers are the commonest cancers diagnosed in women living in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where opportunities for prevention, early detection, or both, are few. Yet several cost-effective interventions could be used to reduce the burden of these two cancers in resource-limited environments. Population- wide vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) linked to cervical screening, at least once, for adult women has the potential to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer substantially. Strategies such as visual inspection with acetic acid and testing for oncogenic HPV types could make prevention of cervical cancer programmatically feasible. These two cancers need not be viewed as inevitably fatal, and can be cured, particularly if detected and treated at an early stage. Investing in the health of girls and women is an investment in the development of nations and their futures. Here we explore ways to lessen the divide between LMICs and high-income countries for breast and cervical cancers.

The global burden of women's cancers: a grand challenge in global health.

Every year, more than 2 million women worldwide are diagnosed with breast or cervical cancer, yet where a woman lives, her socioeconomic status, and agency largely determines whether she will develop one of these cancers and will ultimately survive. In regions with scarce resources, fragile or fragmented health systems, cancer contributes to the cycle of poverty. Proven and cost-effective interventions are available for both these common cancers, yet for so many women access to these is beyond reach. These inequities highlight the urgent need in low-income and middle-income countries for sustainable investments in the entire continuum of cancer control, from prevention to palliative care, and in the development of high-quality population-based cancer registries. In this first paper of the Series on health, equity, and women's cancers, we describe the burden of breast and cervical cancer, with an emphasis on global and regional trends in incidence, mortality, and survival, and the consequences, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged women in different settings.