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1.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 20(6): e1012213, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38870097

ABSTRACT

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.].

2.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(10): e1008278, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33021983

ABSTRACT

For infectious disease prevention, policy-makers are typically required to base policy decisions in light of operational and monetary restrictions, prohibiting implementation of all candidate interventions. To inform the evidence-base underpinning policy decision making, mathematical and health economic modelling can be a valuable constituent. Applied to England, this study aims to identify the optimal target age groups when extending a seasonal influenza vaccination programme of at-risk individuals to those individuals at low risk of developing complications following infection. To perform this analysis, we utilise an age- and strain-structured transmission model that includes immunity propagation mechanisms which link prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Making use of surveillance data from the past decade in conjunction with our dynamic model, we simulate transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in England from 2012 to 2018. We infer that modified susceptibility due to natural infection in the previous influenza season is the only immunity propagation mechanism to deliver a non-negligible impact on the transmission dynamics. Further, we discerned case ascertainment to be higher for young infants compared to adults under 65 years old, and uncovered a decrease in case ascertainment as age increased from 65 to 85 years of age. Our health economic appraisal sweeps vaccination age space to determine threshold vaccine dose prices achieving cost-effectiveness under differing paired strategies. In particular, we model offering vaccination to all those low-risk individuals younger than a given age (but no younger than two years old) and all low-risk individuals older than a given age, while maintaining vaccination of at-risk individuals of any age. All posited strategies were deemed cost-effective. In general, the addition of low-risk vaccination programmes whose coverage encompassed children and young adults (aged 20 and below) were highly cost-effective. The inclusion of elder age-groups to the low-risk programme typically lessened the cost-effectiveness. Notably, elderly-centric programmes vaccinating from 65-75 years and above had the least permitted expense per vaccine.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccination , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Computational Biology , Cost-Benefit Analysis , England , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza Vaccines/economics , Influenza Vaccines/therapeutic use , Influenza, Human/economics , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Models, Theoretical , Vaccination/economics , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
3.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 15(10): e1007096, 2019 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31658250

ABSTRACT

Seasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental component of analysis, informing the efficient use of limited resources. However, these models generally treat each season and each strain circulating within that season in isolation. Here, we amalgamate multiple data sources to calibrate a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered type transmission model for seasonal influenza, incorporating the four main strains and mechanisms linking prior season epidemiological outcomes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Data pertaining to nine influenza seasons, starting with the 2009/10 season, informed our estimates for epidemiological processes, virological sample positivity, vaccine uptake and efficacy attributes, and general practitioner influenza-like-illness consultations as reported by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We performed parameter inference via approximate Bayesian computation to assess strain transmissibility, dependence of present season influenza immunity on prior protection, and variability in the influenza case ascertainment across seasons. This produced reasonable agreement between model and data on the annual strain composition. Parameter fits indicated that the propagation of immunity from one season to the next is weaker if vaccine derived, compared to natural immunity from infection. Projecting the dynamics forward in time suggests that while historic immunity plays an important role in determining annual strain composition, the variability in vaccine efficacy hampers our ability to make long-term predictions.


Subject(s)
Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/transmission , Models, Theoretical , Vaccination/trends , Bayes Theorem , England/epidemiology , Humans , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Public Health Practice , Seasons
4.
Dig Dis Sci ; 65(11): 3143-3158, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31953628

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: PBC registries in the UK focus on data from secondary care without clear coordinated contribution from primary care. The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) receives data from > 500 primary care practices (PCPs). Notably, the Lancet commissioning group is extracting data from the RCGP RSC database to shape UK policy on liver disease. AIMS: To create a novel ontology to facilitate PBC case finding from primary care provider (PCP) records. METHODS: RCGP RSC data were collected from participating PCPs in the county of Surrey, UK. PBC diagnostic criteria of the AASLD and EASL guidelines were used to develop 725 data codes to facilitate patient record searches. A scoring system built into the ontology allowed categorization of cases as PBC definite, PBC probable, and PBC unlikely. RESULTS: A total of 218,099 records were searched from participating PCPs. Of these, there were 58 PBC definite, 2317 PBC probable, and 215,724 PBC unlikely patients. There were 32 PBC definite patients who did not match to our regional PBC database and were henceforth included as new-found cases. Two of these cases were not labeled as PBC by the PCP. From the PBC unlikely group, 7/215,724 (0.003%) patients were labeled as PBC in secondary care records; however, none of them were coded as having PBC by their PCPs. CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of the UK National RCGP RSC database supported by novel ontology score has successfully helped us identify (i) new cases of PBC not known to local/regional secondary care providers and (ii) de novo PBC cases. There are many PBC probable cases whose data merit further careful evaluation.


Subject(s)
Cholangitis/epidemiology , Primary Health Care , Secondary Care , Catchment Area, Health , Cholangitis/therapy , Feasibility Studies , Humans , Registries , United Kingdom/epidemiology
5.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1748, 2020 Nov 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33218318

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Direct observation of the household spread of influenza and respiratory infections is limited; much of our understanding comes from mathematical models. The study aims to determine household incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections within a primary care routine data and identify factors associated with the diseases' incidence. METHODS: We conducted two five-year retrospective analyses of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections using the England Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network database; a cross-sectional study reporting incident rate ratio (IRR) from a negative binomial model and a retrospective cohort study, using a shared gamma frailty survival model, reporting hazard ratios (HR). We reported the following household characteristics: children < 5 years old, each extra household member, gender, ethnicity (reference white), chronic disease, pregnancy, and rurality. RESULTS: The IRR where there was a child < 5 years were 1·62 (1·38-1·89, p < 0·0001), 2·40 (2.04-2.83, p < 0·0001) and 4·46 (3.79-5.255, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. IRR also increased with household size, rurality and presentations and by female gender, compared to male. Household incidence of URTI and LRTI changed little between years whereas influenza did and were greater in years with lower vaccine effectiveness. The HR where there was a child < 5 years were 2·34 (95%CI 1·88-2·90, p < 0·0001), 2·97 (95%CI 2·76-3·2, p < 0·0001) and 10·32 (95%CI 10.04-10.62, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. HR were increased with female gender, rurality, and increasing household size. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of household incidence can be measured from routine data and may provide insights for the modelling of disease transmission and public health policy.


Subject(s)
Influenza, Human , Respiratory Tract Infections , Child , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , England , Female , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Male , Primary Health Care , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies
6.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(12): e23721, 2020 12 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33306032

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: National Health Service (NHS) England supports social prescribing in order to address social determinants of health, which account for approximately 80% of all health outcomes. Nevertheless, data on ongoing social prescribing activities are lacking. Although NHS England has attempted to overcome this problem by recommending 3 standardized primary care codes, these codes do not capture the social prescribing activity to a level of granularity that would allow for fair attribution of outcomes to social prescribing. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we explored whether an alternative approach to coding social prescribing activity, specifically through a social prescribing ontology, can be used to capture the social prescriptions used in primary care in greater detail. METHODS: The social prescribing ontology, implemented according to the Web Ontology Language, was designed to cover several key concepts encompassing social determinants of health. Readv2 and Clinical Terms Version 3 codes were identified using the NHS Terms Browser. The Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre, a sentinel network of over 1000 primary care practices across England covering a population of more than 4,000,000 registered patients, was used for data analyses for a defined period (ie, January 2011 to December 2019). RESULTS: In all, 668 codes capturing social prescriptions addressing different social determinants of health were identified for the social prescribing ontology. For the study period, social prescribing ontology codes were used 5,504,037 times by primary care practices of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre as compared to 29,606 instances of use of social prescribing codes, including NHS England's recommended codes. CONCLUSIONS: A social prescribing ontology provides a powerful alternative to the codes currently recommended by NHS England to capture detailed social prescribing activity in England. The more detailed information thus obtained will allow for explorations about whether outputs or outcomes of care delivery can be attributed to social prescriptions, which is essential for demonstrating the overall value that social prescribing can deliver to the NHS and health care systems.


Subject(s)
Clinical Coding/methods , Social Determinants of Health/standards , Feasibility Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Primary Health Care
7.
Euro Surveill ; 24(31)2019 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31387673

ABSTRACT

BackgroundIn the United Kingdom (UK), in recent influenza seasons, children are offered a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4), and eligible adults mainly trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV).AimTo estimate the UK end-of-season 2017/18 adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) and the seroprevalence in England of antibodies against influenza viruses cultured in eggs or tissue.MethodsThis observational study employed the test-negative case-control approach to estimate aVE in primary care. The population-based seroprevalence survey used residual age-stratified samples.ResultsInfluenza viruses A(H3N2) (particularly subgroup 3C.2a2) and B (mainly B/Yamagata/16/88-lineage, similar to the quadrivalent vaccine B-virus component but mismatched to TIV) dominated. All-age aVE was 15% (95% confidence interval (CI): -6.3 to 32) against all influenza; -16.4% (95% CI: -59.3 to 14.9) against A(H3N2); 24.7% (95% CI: 1.1 to 42.7) against B and 66.3% (95% CI: 33.4 to 82.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For 2-17 year olds, LAIV4 aVE was 26.9% (95% CI: -32.6 to 59.7) against all influenza; -75.5% (95% CI: -289.6 to 21) against A(H3N2); 60.8% (95% CI: 8.2 to 83.3) against B and 90.3% (95% CI: 16.4 to 98.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For ≥ 18 year olds, TIV aVE against influenza B was 1.9% (95% CI: -63.6 to 41.2). The 2017 seroprevalence of antibody recognising tissue-grown A(H3N2) virus was significantly lower than that recognising egg-grown virus in all groups except 15-24 year olds.ConclusionsOverall aVE was low driven by no effectiveness against A(H3N2) possibly related to vaccine virus egg-adaption and a new A(H3N2) subgroup emergence. The TIV was not effective against influenza B. LAIV4 against influenza B and A(H1N1)pdm09 was effective.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/immunology , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccines, Attenuated/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Inactivated/administration & dosage , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza B virus/isolation & purification , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/virology , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Primary Health Care , Seasons , Sentinel Surveillance , Seroepidemiologic Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Vaccines, Inactivated/immunology , Young Adult
8.
Euro Surveill ; 23(25)2018 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29945698

ABSTRACT

The 2015/16 influenza season was the third season of the introduction of an intra-nasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for children in England. All children aged 2‒6 years were offered LAIV, and in addition, a series of geographically discrete areas piloted vaccinating school-age children 7‒11 years old. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant circulating strain during 2015/16 followed by influenza B. We measured influenza vaccine uptake and the overall and indirect effect of vaccinating children of primary school -age, by comparing cumulative disease incidence in targeted and non-targeted age groups in vaccine pilot and non-pilot areas in England. Uptake of 57.9% (range: 43.6-72.0) was achieved in the five pilot areas for children aged 5‒11 years. In pilot areas, cumulative emergency department respiratory attendances, influenza-confirmed hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions were consistently lower, albeit mostly non-significantly, in targeted and non-targeted age groups compared with non-pilot areas. Effect sizes were less for adults and more severe endpoints. Vaccination of healthy primary school-age children with LAIV at moderately high levels continues to be associated with population-level reductions in influenza-related respiratory illness. Further work to evaluate the population-level impact of the programme is required.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , England/epidemiology , Humans , Immunization Programs , Incidence , Influenza Vaccines/adverse effects , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Male , Schools , Seasons
9.
Euro Surveill ; 23(39)2018 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30280688

ABSTRACT

BackgroundIn 2016/17, seasonal influenza vaccine was less effective in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom. We describe the uptake, influenza-associated mortality and adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) in this age group over influenza seasons 2010/11-2016/17. Methods: Vaccine uptake in 2016/17 and five previous seasons were measured using a sentinel general practitioners cohort in England; the test-negative case-control design was used to estimate pooled aVE by subtype and age group against laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care from 2010-2017. Results: Vaccine uptake was 64% in 65-69-year-olds, 74% in 70-74-year-olds and 80% in those aged 75 and older. Overall aVE was 32.5% (95% CI: 11.6 to 48.5); aVE by sub-type was 60.8% (95% CI: 33.9 to 76.7) and 50.0% (95% CI: 21.6 to 68.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, respectively, but only 5.6% (95% CI: - 39.2 to 35.9) against A(H3N2). Against all laboratory-confirmed influenza aVE was 45.2% (95% CI: 25.1 to 60.0) in 65-74 year olds; - 26.2% (95% CI: - 149.3 to 36.0) in 75-84 year olds and - 3.2% (95% CI: - 237.8 to 68.5) in those aged 85 years and older. Influenza-attributable mortality was highest in seasons dominated by A(H3N2). Conclusions: Vaccine uptake with non-adjuvanted, normal-dose vaccines remained high, with evidence of effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B, though poor against A(H3N2), particularly in those aged 75 years and older. Forthcoming availability of newly licensed vaccines with wider use of antivirals can potentially further improve prevention and control of influenza in this group.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/immunology , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , England , Female , Humans , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza B virus/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/virology , Male , Population Surveillance , Seasons , Sentinel Surveillance , United Kingdom , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccine Potency
10.
Euro Surveill ; 22(44)2017 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29113630

ABSTRACT

IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Influenza A virus/immunology , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Vaccine Potency , Vaccines, Attenuated/administration & dosage , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs , Infant , Influenza A virus/genetics , Influenza A virus/isolation & purification , Influenza B virus/genetics , Influenza B virus/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/virology , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Primary Health Care , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Sensitivity and Specificity , Sentinel Surveillance , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Young Adult
11.
Euro Surveill ; 21(13)2016.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27074651

ABSTRACT

In 2015/16, the influenza season in the United Kingdom was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Virus characterisation indicated the emergence of genetic clusters, with the majority antigenically similar to the current influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain. Mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates show an adjusted VE of 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-64.7) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultations and of 49.1% (95% CI: 9.3-71.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates show levels of protection similar to the 2010/11 season, when this strain was first used in the seasonal vaccine.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/therapeutic use , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Laboratories , Pandemics/prevention & control , Seasons , Adolescent , Adult , Female , Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests , Humans , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/genetics , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/immunology , Influenza, Human/virology , Male , Middle Aged , Phylogeny , Primary Health Care , Sentinel Surveillance , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination , Young Adult
12.
Euro Surveill ; 21(38)2016 Sep 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27684603

ABSTRACT

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season's adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0-61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6-64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1-68.6) against influenza B. In 2-17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6-94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: -8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccine Potency , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza B virus/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza, Human/virology , Laboratories , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Population Surveillance , Primary Health Care , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Seasons , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccines, Attenuated/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Young Adult
13.
Euro Surveill ; 20(39)2015.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26537222

ABSTRACT

The 2014/15 influenza season was the second season of roll-out of a live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme for healthy children in England. During this season, besides offering LAIV to all two to four year olds, several areas piloted vaccination of primary (4-11 years) and secondary (11-13 years) age children. Influenza A(H3N2) circulated, with strains genetically and antigenically distinct from the 2014/15 A(H3N2) vaccine strain, followed by a drifted B strain. We assessed the overall and indirect impact of vaccinating school age children, comparing cumulative disease incidence in targeted and non-targeted age groups in vaccine pilot to non-pilot areas. Uptake levels were 56.8% and 49.8% in primary and secondary school pilot areas respectively. In primary school age pilot areas, cumulative primary care influenza-like consultation, emergency department respiratory attendance, respiratory swab positivity, hospitalisation and excess respiratory mortality were consistently lower in targeted and non-targeted age groups, though less for adults and more severe end-points, compared with non-pilot areas. There was no significant reduction for excess all-cause mortality. Little impact was seen in secondary school age pilot only areas compared with non-pilot areas. Vaccination of healthy primary school age children resulted in population-level impact despite circulation of drifted A and B influenza strains.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccines, Attenuated/administration & dosage , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs/statistics & numerical data , Incidence , Infant , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/immunology , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/adverse effects , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Male , Pilot Projects , Schools , Seasons , Vaccines, Attenuated/adverse effects
14.
Euro Surveill ; 20(36)2015.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26535911

ABSTRACT

The 2014/15 influenza season in the United Kingdom (UK) was characterised by circulation of predominantly antigenically and genetically drifted influenza A(H3N2) and B viruses. A universal paediatric influenza vaccination programme using a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has recently been introduced in the UK. This study aims to measure the end-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), including for LAIV, using the test negative case-control design. The overall adjusted VE against all influenza was 34.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.8 to 47.5); for A(H3N2) 29.3% (95% CI: 8.6 to 45.3) and for B 46.3% (95% CI: 13.9 to 66.5). For those aged under 18 years, influenza A(H3N2) LAIV VE was 35% (95% CI: -29.9 to 67.5), whereas for influenza B the LAIV VE was 100% (95% CI:17.0 to 100.0). Although the VE against influenza A(H3N2) infection was low, there was still evidence of significant protection, together with moderate, significant protection against drifted circulating influenza B viruses. LAIV provided non-significant positive protection against influenza A, with significant protection against B. Further work to assess the population impact of the vaccine programme across the UK is underway.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza B virus/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Sentinel Surveillance , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Case-Control Studies , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/genetics , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/immunology , Influenza B virus/genetics , Influenza B virus/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Influenza, Human/virology , Laboratories , Male , Middle Aged , Primary Health Care , Respiratory Tract Infections/prevention & control , Respiratory Tract Infections/virology , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Seasons , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
15.
J Org Chem ; 79(5): 1947-53, 2014 Mar 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24564865

ABSTRACT

A mild protocol for the synthesis of diaryl and heteroaryl sulfides is described. In a one-pot procedure, thiols are converted to sulfenyl chlorides and reacted with arylzinc reagents. This method tolerates functional groups including aryl fluorides and chlorides, ketones, as well as N-heterocycles including pyrimidines, imidazoles, tetrazoles, and oxadiazoles. Two compounds synthesized by this method exhibited selective activity against the MCF-7 breast cancer cell line in the micromolar range.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Agents/chemical synthesis , Chlorides/chemistry , Imidazoles/chemistry , Ketones/chemistry , MCF-7 Cells/chemistry , MCF-7 Cells/drug effects , Sulfenic Acids/chemical synthesis , Sulfhydryl Compounds/chemistry , Sulfides/chemical synthesis , Antineoplastic Agents/chemistry , Catalysis , Humans , Molecular Structure , Sulfides/chemistry
16.
Angew Chem Int Ed Engl ; 53(9): 2422-2427, 2014 Feb 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24478275

ABSTRACT

Alkyl Grignard reagents that contain ß-hydrogen atoms were used in a stereospecific nickel-catalyzed cross-coupling reaction to form C(sp(3))-C(sp(3)) bonds. Aryl Grignard reagents were also utilized to synthesize 1,1-diarylalkanes. Several compounds synthesized by this method exhibited selective inhibition of proliferation of MCF-7 breast cancer cells.


Subject(s)
Alkanes/chemical synthesis , Alkanes/pharmacology , Antineoplastic Agents/chemical synthesis , Antineoplastic Agents/pharmacology , Breast Neoplasms/drug therapy , Nickel/chemistry , Alkanes/chemistry , Antineoplastic Agents/chemistry , Catalysis , Cell Line, Tumor , Female , Humans , Hydrocarbons, Aromatic/chemical synthesis , Hydrocarbons, Aromatic/chemistry , Hydrocarbons, Aromatic/pharmacology , Indicators and Reagents , Stereoisomerism
17.
Behav Sci (Basel) ; 13(2)2023 Feb 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36829359

ABSTRACT

Seasonal vaccination against influenza and in-pandemic COVID-19 vaccination are top public health priorities; vaccines are the primary means of reducing infections and also controlling pressures on health systems. During the 2018-2019 influenza season, we conducted a study of the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours of 159 general practitioners (GPs) and 189 patients aged ≥65 years in England using a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to document beliefs about seasonal influenza and seasonal influenza vaccine. GPs were surveyed before and after a continuing medical education (CME) module on influenza disease and vaccination with an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) designed for patients aged ≥65 years, and patients were surveyed before and after a routine visit with a GP who participated in the CME portion of the study. The CME course was associated with significantly increased GP confidence in their ability to address patients' questions and concerns about influenza disease and vaccination (p < 0.001). Patients reported significantly increased confidence in the effectiveness and safety of aTIV after meeting their GP. Overall, 82.2% of the study population were vaccinated against influenza (including 137 patients vaccinated during the GP visit and 15 patients who had been previously vaccinated), a rate higher than the English national average vaccine uptake of 72.0% that season. These findings support the value of GP-patient interactions to foster vaccine acceptance.

18.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses ; 17(2): e13099, 2023 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36824392

ABSTRACT

Background: The universal paediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme commenced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013/2014. Since 2014/2015, all pre-school and primary school children in Scotland and Northern Ireland have been offered the vaccine. England and Wales incrementally introduced the programme with additional school age cohorts being vaccinated each season. The Republic of Ireland (ROI) had no universal paediatric programme before 2017. We evaluated the potential population impact of vaccinating primary school-aged children across the five countries up to the 2016/2017 influenza season. Methods: We compared rates of primary care influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations, confirmed influenza intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and all-cause excess mortality using standardised methods. To further quantify the impact, a scoring system was developed where each weekly rate/z-score was scored and summed across each influenza season according to the weekly respective threshold experienced in each country. Results: Results highlight ILI consultation rates in the four seasons' post-programme, breached baseline thresholds once or not at all in Scotland and Northern Ireland; in three out of the four seasons in England and Wales; and in all four seasons in ROI. No differences were observed in the seasons' post-programme introduction between countries in rates of ICU and excess mortality, although reductions in influenza-related mortality were seen. The scoring system also reflected similar results overall. Conclusions: Findings of this study suggest that LAIV vaccination of primary school age children is associated with population-level benefits, particularly in reducing infection incidence in primary care.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Child , Humans , Child, Preschool , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , United Kingdom/epidemiology , England/epidemiology , Vaccination , Vaccines, Attenuated , Seasons
19.
JMIR Res Protoc ; 11(4): e35971, 2022 Apr 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35417404

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Social distancing and other nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection in the United Kingdom have led to substantial changes in delivering ongoing care for patients with chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Clinical guidelines for the management and prevention of complications for people with T2DM delivered in primary care services advise routine annual reviews and were developed when face-to-face consultations were the norm. The shift in consultations from face-to-face to remote consultations caused a reduction in direct clinical contact and may impact the process of care for people with T2DM. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic's first year on the monitoring of people with T2DM using routine annual reviews from a national primary care perspective in England. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adults with T2DM will be performed using routinely collected primary care data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We will describe the change in the rate of monitoring of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) between the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) and the preceding year (2019). We will also report any change in the eight checks that make up the components of these reviews. The change in HbA1c monitoring rates will be determined using a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for patient and practice characteristics, and similarly, the change in a composite measure of the completeness of all eight checks will be modeled using ordinal regression. The models will be adjusted for the following patient-level variables: age, gender, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, COVID-19 shielding status, duration of diabetes, and comorbidities. The model will also be adjusted for the following practice-level variables: urban versus rural, practice size, Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement, the National Health Service region, and the proportion of face-to-face consultations. Ethical approval was provided by the University of Oxford Medical Sciences Interdivisional Research Ethics Committee (September 2, 2021, reference R77306/RE001). RESULTS: The analysis of the data extract will include 3.96 million patients with T2DM across 700 practices, which is 6% of the available Oxford-RCGP RSC adult population. The preliminary results will be submitted to a conference under the domain of primary care. The resulting publication will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal on diabetes and endocrinology. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the delivery of care, but little is known about the process of caring for people with T2DM. This study will report the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these processes of care. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/35971.

20.
BMJ Open ; 10(9): e037681, 2020 09 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32948564

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Social prescribing aims to address social determinants of health, which account for 80%-90% of health outcomes, but the evidence base behind it is limited due to a lack of data linkingsocial prescribing activity and outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The objective of the quantitative component of this feasibility studyisto identify the characteristics of individuals who receive social prescriptions and describe the use and estimate the impact of social prescribing; the latter will be done on a homeless subgroup. We will use the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network, whose general practicescover a population of over 4 000 000 patients. Social prescribing data will be extracted onall recorded patients for 5 years up to 31 January 2020. The objective for the qualitative component of the study isto explore approaches to understand the contextual factors that will have influenced our quantitative findings to identify mechanisms to encourage adoption of social prescribing in primary care while improving data quality. Itwill comprise up to three 90-120 minute advisory group meetings for six to eight participants. Participants will be recruited based on their experience of delivering primary care within Oxfordshire and Surrey. The advisory group outputs will be analysed using framework analysis and will be used to create a survey instrument consisting of statements that surveyees, who will consist of primary care practitioners within the RCGP RSC, can agree or disagree with. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All RCGP RSC data are pseudonymised at the point of data extraction. No personally identifiable data are required for this investigation. This protocol follows the Good Reporting of a Mixed Methods Study checklist. The study results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and the dataset will be available to other researchers.


Subject(s)
General Practitioners , Primary Health Care , Feasibility Studies , Humans , Prescriptions , Research Personnel
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