Reconstruction of the Genetic History and the Current Spread of HIV-1 Subtype A in Germany.

HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both cocirculating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005, however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985 to 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005, transmissions among German men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing and have been associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany.IMPORTANCE HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections, including subtype A infections, has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes, and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS.

Molecular evolution of HIV-1 integrase during the 20 years prior to the first approval of integrase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Detailed knowledge of the evolutionary potential of polymorphic sites in a viral protein is important for understanding the development of drug resistance in the presence of an inhibitor. We therefore set out to analyse the molecular evolution of the HIV-1 subtype B integrase at the inter-patient level in Germany during a 20-year period prior to the first introduction of integrase strand inhibitors (INSTIs). METHODS: We determined 337 HIV-1 integrase subtype B sequences (amino acids 1-278) from stored plasma samples of antiretroviral treatment-naïve individuals newly diagnosed with HIV-1 between 1986 and 2006. Shannon entropy was calculated to determine the variability at each amino acid position. Time trends in the frequency of amino acid variants were identified by linear regression. Direct coupling analysis was applied to detect covarying sites. RESULTS: Twenty-two time trends in the frequency of amino acid variants demonstrated either single amino acid exchanges or variation in the degree of polymorphy. Covariation was observed for 17 amino acid variants with a temporal trend. Some minor INSTI resistance mutations (T124A, V151I, K156 N, T206S, S230 N) and some INSTI-selected mutations (M50I, L101I, T122I, T124 N, T125A, M154I, G193E, V201I) were identified at overall frequencies >5%. Among these, the frequencies of L101I, T122I, and V201I increased over time, whereas the frequency of M154I decreased. Moreover, L101I, T122I, T124A, T125A, M154I, and V201I covaried with non-resistance-associated variants. CONCLUSIONS: Time-trending, covarying polymorphisms indicate that long-term evolutionary changes of the HIV-1 integrase involve defined clusters of possibly structurally or functionally associated sites independent of selective pressure through INSTIs at the inter-patient level. Linkage between polymorphic resistance- and non-resistance-associated sites can impact the selection of INSTI resistance mutations in complex ways. Identification of these sites can help in improving genotypic resistance assays, resistance prediction algorithms, and the development of new integrase inhibitors.

Assessment of ambiguous base calls in HIV-1 pol population sequences as a biomarker for identification of recent infections in HIV-1 incidence studies.

An increase in the proportion of ambiguous base calls in HIV-1 pol population sequences during the course of infection has been demonstrated in different study populations, and sequence ambiguity thresholds to classify infections as recent or nonrecent have been suggested. The aim of our study was to evaluate sequence ambiguities as a candidate biomarker for use in an HIV-1 incidence assay using samples from antiretroviral treatment-naive seroconverters with known durations of infection (German HIV-1 Seroconverter Study). We used 2,203 HIV-1 pol population sequences derived from 1,334 seroconverters to assess the sequence ambiguity method (SAM). We then compared the serological incidence BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) with the SAM for a subset of 723 samples from 495 seroconverters and evaluated a multianalyte algorithm that includes BED-CEIA results, SAM results, viral loads, and CD4 cell counts for 453 samples from 325 seroconverters. We observed a significant increase in the proportion of sequence ambiguities with the duration of infection. A sequence ambiguity threshold of 0.5% best identified recent infections with 76.7% accuracy. The mean duration of recency was determined to be 208 (95% confidence interval, 196 to 221) days. In the subset analysis, BED-CEIA achieved a significantly higher accuracy than the SAM (84.6 versus 75.5%, P < 0.001) and results were concordant for 64.2% (464/723) of the samples. Also, the multianalyte algorithm did not show better accuracy than the BED-CEIA (83.4 versus 84.3%, P = 0.786). In conclusion, the SAM and the multianalyte algorithm including SAM were inferior to the BED-CEIA, and the proportion of sequence ambiguities is therefore not a preferable biomarker for HIV-1 incidence testing.

Logical-continuous modelling of post-translationally regulated bistability of curli fiber expression in Escherichia coli.

BACKGROUND: Bacteria have developed a repertoire of signalling mechanisms that enable adaptive responses to fluctuating environmental conditions. The formation of biofilm, for example, allows persisting in times of external stresses, e.g. induced by antibiotics or a lack of nutrients. Adhesive curli fibers, the major extracellular matrix components in Escherichia coli biofilms, exhibit heterogeneous expression in isogenic cells exposed to identical external conditions. The dynamical mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity remain poorly understood. In this work, we elucidate the potential role of post-translational bistability as a source for this heterogeneity. RESULTS: We introduce a structured modelling workflow combining logical network topology analysis with time-continuous deterministic and stochastic modelling. The aim is to evaluate the topological structure of the underlying signalling network and to identify and analyse model parameterisations that satisfy observations from a set of genetic knockout experiments. Our work supports the hypothesis that the phenotypic heterogeneity of curli expression in biofilm cells is induced by bistable regulation at the post-translational level. Stochastic modelling suggests diverse noise-induced switching behaviours between the stable states, depending on the expression levels of the c-di-GMP-producing (diguanylate cyclases, DGCs) and -degrading (phosphodiesterases, PDEs) enzymes and reveals the quantitative difference in stable c-di-GMP levels between distinct phenotypes. The most dominant type of behaviour is characterised by a fast switching from curli-off to curli-on with a slow switching in the reverse direction and the second most dominant type is a long-term differentiation into curli-on or curli-off cells. This behaviour may implicate an intrinsic feature of the system allowing for a fast adaptive response (curli-on) versus a slow transition to the curli-off state, in line with experimental observations. CONCLUSION: The combination of logical and continuous modelling enables a thorough analysis of different determinants of bistable regulation, i.e. network topology and biochemical kinetics, and allows for an incorporation of experimental data from heterogeneous sources. Our approach yields a mechanistic explanation for the phenotypic heterogeneity of curli fiber expression. Furthermore, the presented work provides a detailed insight into the interactions between the multiple DGC- and PDE-type enzymes and the role of c-di-GMP in dynamical regulation of cellular decisions.

Characterization of natural polymorphic sites of the HIV-1 integrase before the introduction of HIV-1 integrase inhibitors in Germany.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of our study was to analyze the occurrence and evolution of HIV-1 integrase polymorphisms during the HIV-1 epidemic in Germany prior to the introduction of the first integrase inhibitor raltegravir in 2007. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Plasma samples from drug-naïve HIV-1 infected individuals newly diagnosed between 1986 and 2006 were used to determine PCR-based population sequences of the HIV-1 integrase (amino acids 1-278). The HIV-1 subtype was determined using the REGA HIV-1 subtyping tool. We calculated the frequency of amino acids at each position of the HIV-1 integrase in 337 subtype B strains for the time periods 1986-1989, 1991-1994, 1995-1998, 1999-2002, and 2003-2006. Positions were defined as polymorphic if amino acid variation was >1% in any period. Logistic regression was used to identify trends in amino acid variation over time. Resistance-associated mutations were identified according to the IAS 2013 list and the HIVdb, ANRS and GRADE algorithms. RESULTS: Overall, 56.8% (158/278) amino acid positions were polymorphic and 15.8% (25/158) of these positions exhibited a significant trend in amino acid variation over time. Proportionately, most polymorphic positions (63.3%, 31/49) were detected in the N-terminal zinc finger domain of the HIV-1 integrase. Motifs and residues essential for HIV-1 integrase activity were little polymorphic, but within the minimal non-specific DNA binding region I220-D270 up to 18.1% amino acid variation was noticed, including four positions with significant amino acid variation over time (S230, D232, D256, A265). No major resistance mutations were identified, and minor resistance mutations were rarely observed without trend over time. E157Q considered by HIVdb, ANRS, and GRADE algorithms was the most frequent resistance-associated polymorphism with an overall prevalence of 2.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed knowledge of the evolutionary variation of HIV-1 integrase polymorphisms is important to understand the development of resistance in the presence of the drug. Our results will contribute to define the relevance of integrase polymorphisms in HIV-strains resistant to integrase inhibitors and to improve resistance interpretation algorithms.

In vitro HIV-1 evolution in response to triple reverse transcriptase inhibitors & in silico phenotypic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of ART regimens strongly depends upon complex interactions between the selective pressure of drugs and the evolution of mutations that allow or restrict drug resistance. METHODS: Four clinical isolates from NRTI-exposed, NNRTI-naive subjects were passaged in increasing concentrations of NVP in combination with 1 µM 3 TC and 2 µM ADV to assess selective pressures of multi-drug treatment. A novel parameter inference procedure, based on a stochastic viral growth model, was used to estimate phenotypic resistance and fitness from in vitro combination passage experiments. RESULTS: Newly developed mathematical methods estimated key phenotypic parameters of mutations arising through selective pressure exerted by 3 TC and NVP. Concentrations of 1 µM 3 TC maintained the M184V mutation, which was associated with intrinsic fitness deficits. Increasing NVP concentrations selected major NNRTI resistance mutations. The evolutionary pathway of NVP resistance was highly dependent on the viral genetic background, epistasis as well as stochasticity. Parameter estimation indicated that the previously unrecognized mutation L228Q was associated with NVP resistance in some isolates. CONCLUSION: Serial passage of viruses in the presence of multiple drugs may resemble the selection of mutations observed among treated individuals and populations in vivo and indicate evolutionary preferences and restrictions. Phenotypic resistance estimated here "in silico" from in vitro passage experiments agreed well with previous knowledge, suggesting that the unique combination of "wet-" and "dry-lab" experimentation may improve our understanding of HIV-1 resistance evolution in the future.