A Multistate Decomposition Analysis of Cesarean Rate Variations, Associated Health Outcomes, and Financial Implications in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Cesarean rates vary widely across the U.S. states; however, little is known about the causes and implications associated with these variations. The objectives of this study were to quantify the contribution of the clinical and nonclinical factors in explaining the difference in cesarean rates across states and to investigate the associated health outcome of cesarean variations. STUDY DESIGN: Using the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases, this retrospective study included all nonfederal hospital births from Wisconsin, Florida, and New York. A nonlinear extension of the Oaxaca-Blinder method was used to decompose the contributions of differences in characteristics to cesarean variations between these states. The risk factors for cesarean delivery were identified using separate multivariable logistic regression analysis for each State. RESULTS: The difference in clinical and nonclinical factors explained a substantial (~46.57-65.45%) proportion of cesarean variations between U.S. states. The major contributors of variation were patient demographics, previous cesareans, hospital markup ratios, and social determinants of health. Cesarean delivery was significantly associated with higher postpartum readmissions and unplanned emergency department visits, greater lengths of stay, and hospital costs across all states. CONCLUSION: Although a proportion of variations in cesarean rates can be explained by the differences in risk factors, the remaining unexplained variations suggest differences in practice patterns and imply potential quality concerns. Since nonclinical factors are likely to play an important role in cesarean variation, we recommend targeted initiatives increasing access to maternal care and improving maternal health literacy. KEY POINTS: · Cesarean rates vary widely almost two folds within U.S. states.. · The difference in risk factors explained substantial (~46.57-65.45%) of the cesarean variations.. · Mother race, hospital factors, and social determinants comprised major proportion of explained variation.. · Adverse outcomes and increased expenditures were associated with cesarean than vaginal delivery.. · Significant potential cost savings for Medicaid if the unnecessary cesarean deliveries are reduced..

The Waiting Game - How Cooperation Between Public and Private Hospitals Can Help Reduce Waiting Lists.

Prolonged waiting to access health care is a primary concern for nations aiming for comprehensive effective care, due to its adverse effects on mortality, quality of life, and government approval. Here, we propose two novel bargaining frameworks to reduce waiting lists in two-tier health care systems with local and regional actors. In particular, we assess the impact of 1) trading patients on waiting lists among hospitals, the 2) introduction of the role of private hospitals in capturing unfulfilled demand, and the 3) hospitals' willingness to share capacity on the system performance. We calibrated our models with 2008-2018 Chilean waiting list data. If hospitals trade unattended patients, our game-theoretic models indicate a potential reduction of waiting lists of up to 37%. However, when private hospitals are introduced into the system, we found a possible reduction of waiting lists of up to 60%. Further analyses revealed a trade-off between diagnosing unserved demand and the additional expense of using private hospitals as a back-up system. In summary, our game-theoretic frameworks of waiting list management in two-tier health systems suggest that public-private cooperation can be an effective mechanism to reduce waiting lists. Further empirical and prospective evaluations are needed.

A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

A user needs assessment to inform health information exchange design and implementation.

BACKGROUND: Important barriers for widespread use of health information exchange (HIE) are usability and interface issues. However, most HIEs are implemented without performing a needs assessment with the end users, healthcare providers. We performed a user needs assessment for the process of obtaining clinical information from other health care organizations about a hospitalized patient and identified the types of information most valued for medical decision-making. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative analysis were used to evaluate the process to obtain and use outside clinical information (OI) using semi-structured interviews (16 internists), direct observation (750 h), and operational data from the electronic medical records (30,461 hospitalizations) of an internal medicine department in a public, teaching hospital in Tampa, Florida. RESULTS: 13.7 % of hospitalizations generate at least one request for OI. On average, the process comprised 13 steps, 6 decisions points, and 4 different participants. Physicians estimate that the average time to receive OI is 18 h. Physicians perceived that OI received is not useful 33-66 % of the time because information received is irrelevant or not timely. Technical barriers to OI use included poor accessibility and ineffective information visualization. Common problems with the process were receiving extraneous notes and the need to re-request the information. Drivers for OI use were to trend lab or imaging abnormalities, understand medical history of critically ill or hospital-to-hospital transferred patients, and assess previous echocardiograms and bacterial cultures. About 85 % of the physicians believe HIE would have a positive effect on improving healthcare delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Although hospitalists are challenged by a complex process to obtain OI, they recognize the value of specific information for enhancing medical decision-making. HIE systems are likely to have increased utilization and effectiveness if specific patient-level clinical information is delivered at the right time to the right users.

Hospital food management: a multi-objective approach to reduce waste and costs.

Food waste contributes significantly to greenhouse emissions and represents a substantial portion of overall waste within hospital facilities. Furthermore, uneaten food leads to a diminished nutritional intake for patients, that typically are vulnerable and ill. Therefore, this study developed mathematical models for constructing patient meals in a 1000-bed hospital located in Florida. The objective is to minimize food waste and meal-building costs while ensuring that the prepared meals meet the required nutrients and caloric content for patients. To accomplish these objectives, four mixed-integer programming models were employed, incorporating binary and continuous variables. The first model establishes a baseline for how the system currently works. This model generates the meals without minimizing waste or cost. The second model minimizes food waste, reducing waste up to 22.53 % compared to the baseline. The third model focuses on minimizing meal-building costs and achieves a substantial reduction of 37 %. Finally, a multi-objective optimization model was employed to simultaneously reduce both food waste and cost, resulting in reductions of 19.70 % in food waste and 32.66 % in meal-building costs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-objective optimization in reducing waste and costs within large-scale food service operations.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Pediatric Nonindex Readmission: Evidence From Florida Hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: Increasing pediatric care regionalization may inadvertently fragment care if children are readmitted to a different (nonindex) hospital rather than the discharge (index) hospital. Therefore, this study aimed to assess trends in pediatric nonindex readmission rates, examine the risk factors, and determine if this destination difference affects readmission outcomes. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we use the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database to include pediatric (0 to 18 years) admissions from 2010 to 2017 across Florida hospitals. Risk factors of nonindex readmissions were identified by using logistic regression analyses. The differences in outcomes between index versus nonindex readmissions were compared for in-hospital mortality, morbidity, hospital cost, length of stay, against medical advice discharges, and subsequent hospital visits by using generalized linear regression models. RESULTS: Among 41 107 total identified readmissions, 5585 (13.6%) were readmitted to nonindex hospitals. Adjusted nonindex readmission rate increased from 13.3% in 2010% to 15.4% in 2017. Patients in the nonindex readmissions group were more likely to be adolescents, live in poor neighborhoods, have higher comorbidity scores, travel longer distances, and be discharged at the postacute facility. After risk adjusting, no difference in in-hospital mortality was found, but morbidity was 13% higher, and following unplanned emergency department visits were 28% higher among patients with nonindex readmissions. Length of stay, hospital costs, and against medical advice discharges were also significantly higher for nonindex readmissions. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of children experienced nonindex readmissions and relatively poorer health outcomes compared with index readmission. Targeted strategies for improving continuity of care are necessary to improve readmission outcomes.

Prediction of Chronic Disease-Related Inpatient Prolonged Length of Stay Using Machine Learning Algorithms.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to develop and compare predictive models based on supervised machine learning algorithms for predicting the prolonged length of stay (LOS) of hospitalized patients diagnosed with five different chronic conditions. METHODS: An administrative claim dataset (2008-2012) of a regional network of nine hospitals in the Tampa Bay area, Florida, USA, was used to develop the prediction models. Features were extracted from the dataset using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. Five learning algorithms, namely, decision tree C5.0, linear support vector machine (LSVM), k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and multi-layered artificial neural networks, were used to build the model with semi-supervised anomaly detection and two feature selection methods. Issues with the unbalanced nature of the dataset were resolved using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). RESULTS: LSVM with wrapper feature selection performed moderately well for all patient cohorts. Using SMOTE to counter data imbalances triggered a tradeoff between the model's sensitivity and specificity, which can be masked under a similar area under the curve. The proposed aggregate rank selection approach resulted in a balanced performing model compared to other criteria. Finally, factors such as comorbidity conditions, source of admission, and payer types were associated with the increased risk of a prolonged LOS. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged LOS is mostly associated with pre-intraoperative clinical and patient socioeconomic factors. Accurate patient identification with the risk of prolonged LOS using the selected model can provide hospitals a better tool for planning early discharge and resource allocation, thus reducing avoidable hospitalization costs.

Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Preventable Hospital Readmissions.

A diverse universe of statistical models in the literature aim to help hospitals understand the risk factors of their preventable readmissions. However, these models are usually not necessarily applicable in other contexts, fail to achieve good discriminatory power, or cannot be compared with other models. We built and compared predictive models based on machine learning algorithms for 30-day preventable hospital readmissions of Medicare patients. This work used the same inclusion/exclusion criteria for diseases used by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In addition, risk stratification techniques were implemented to study covariate behavior on each risk strata. The new models resulted in improved performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Finally, factors such as higher length of stay, disease severity index, being discharged to a hospital, and primary language other than English were associated with increased risk to be readmitted within 30 days. In the future, better predictive models for 30-day preventable hospital readmissions can point to the development of systems that identify patients at high risk and lead to the implementation of interventions (e.g., discharge planning and follow-up) to those patients, providing consistent improvement in the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system.

Activating clinical trials: a process improvement approach.

BACKGROUND: The administrative process associated with clinical trial activation has been criticized as costly, complex, and time-consuming. Prior research has concentrated on identifying administrative barriers and proposing various solutions to reduce activation time, and consequently associated costs. Here, we expand on previous research by incorporating social network analysis and discrete-event simulation to support process improvement decision-making. METHODS: We searched for all operational data associated with the administrative process of activating industry-sponsored clinical trials at the Office of Clinical Research of the University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida. We limited the search to those trials initiated and activated between July 2011 and June 2012. We described the process using value stream mapping, studied the interactions of the various process participants using social network analysis, and modeled potential process modifications using discrete-event simulation. RESULTS: The administrative process comprised 5 sub-processes, 30 activities, 11 decision points, 5 loops, and 8 participants. The mean activation time was 76.6 days. Rate-limiting sub-processes were those of contract and budget development. Key participants during contract and budget development were the Office of Clinical Research, sponsors, and the principal investigator. Simulation results indicate that slight increments on the number of trials, arriving to the Office of Clinical Research, would increase activation time by 11 %. Also, incrementing the efficiency of contract and budget development would reduce the activation time by 28 %. Finally, better synchronization between contract and budget development would reduce time spent on batching documentation; however, no improvements would be attained in total activation time. CONCLUSION: The presented process improvement analytic framework not only identifies administrative barriers, but also helps to devise and evaluate potential improvement scenarios. The strength of our framework lies in its system analysis approach that recognizes the stochastic duration of the activation process and the interdependence between process activities and entities.

Preventable Readmission Risk Factors for Patients With Chronic Conditions.

Evidence indicates that the largest volume of hospital readmissions occurs among patients with preexisting chronic conditions. Identifying these patients can improve the way hospital care is delivered and prioritize the allocation of interventions. In this retrospective study, we identify factors associated with readmission within 30 days based on claims and administrative data of nine hospitals from 2005 to 2012. We present a data inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify potentially preventable readmissions. Multivariate logistic regression models and a Cox proportional hazards extension are used to estimate the readmission risk for 4 chronic conditions (congestive heart failure [CHF], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], acute myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes) and pneumonia, known to be related to high readmission rates. Accumulated number of admissions and discharge disposition were identified to be significant factors across most disease groups. Larger odds of readmission were associated with higher severity index for CHF and COPD patients. Different chronic conditions are associated with different patient and case severity factors, suggesting that further studies in readmission should consider studying conditions separately.

Human error, not communication and systems, underlies surgical complications.

OBJECTIVE: This study prospectively assesses the underlying errors contributing to surgical complications over a 12-month period in a complex academic department of surgery using a validated scoring template. BACKGROUND: Studies in "high reliability organizations" suggest that systems failures are responsible for errors. Reports from the aviation industry target communication failures in the cockpit. No prior studies have developed a validated classification system and have determined the types of errors responsible for surgical complications. METHODS: A classification system of medical error during operation was created, validated, and data collected on the frequency, type, and severity of medical errors in 9,830 surgical procedures. Statistical analysis of concordance, validity, and reliability were performed. RESULTS: Reported major complications occurred in 332 patients (3.4%) with error in 78.3%: errors in surgical technique (63.5%), judgment errors (29.6%), inattention to detail (29.3%), and incomplete understanding (22.7%). Error contributed more than 50% to the complication in 75%. A total of 13.6% of cases had error but no injury, 34.4% prolongation of hospitalization, 25.1% temporary disability, 8.4% permanent disability, and 16.0% death. In 20%, the error was a "mistake" (the wrong thing), and in 58% a "slip" (the right thing incorrectly). System errors (2%) and communication errors (2%) were infrequently identified. CONCLUSIONS: After surgical technique, most surgical error was caused by human factors: judgment, inattention to detail, and incomplete understanding, and not to organizational/system errors or breaks in communication. Training efforts to minimize error and enhance patient safety must address human factor causes of error.