The SLE-DAS provides an accurate and feasible flare tool in the clinical setting: a validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the criterion validity of the SLE disease activity score (SLE-DAS) flare tool and compare its performance in identifying flares against other instruments. METHODS: Patients with SLE fulfilling SLE-DAS low disease activity at baseline were included from two academic lupus clinics. During follow-up, flares were identified by the senior attending clinician, applying the expert-consensus-based definition as gold-standard. The first clinical flare from flaring patients, and the first visit after baseline in patients without flares were analysed. In each no flare/flare visits, we assessed flares by SLE-DAS (score increase ≥1.72), classic-SELENA Flare Index (c-SELENA FI), revised-SELENA FI (r-SELENA FI), and SLEDAI-2K (score increase ≥4). We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and Cohen's Kappa agreement of each flare tool against the gold-standard. RESULTS: A total of 442 patients were included and followed-up for 22.9 (14.2) months. Incidence of flares was 8.19/100 patient-years, with 69 patients experiencing flares. The SLE-DAS identified 96.6% of the expert-defined flares implying a treatment change and classified 28.0% of those as moderate/severe. Sensitivity and specificity for the gold-standard flare definition were: SLE-DAS 97.1% and 97.3%, c-SELENA FI 88.4% and 98.1%, r-SELENA FI 88.4% and 96.8%, SLEDAI-2K 56.5% and 99.2%, respectively. Kappa coefficients of these instruments were 0.902 (95% CI: 0.847, 0.957), 0.870 (95% CI: 0.805, 0.935), 0.832 (95% CI: 0.761, 0.903), and 0.663 (95% CI: 0.557, 0.769), respectively. The number of flare misclassifications was lowest with the SLE-DAS, and highest with the SLEDAI-2K. CONCLUSION: The SLE-DAS accurately identifies and categorizes flares as mild or moderate/severe. It is feasible and, thus, may help the physicians' treatment decisions in the clinical practice setting.

Capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (C4 D) for rapid and simple determination of lactate in sweat.

An analytical method based on capillary electrophoresis (CE) using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (C4 D) was developed and validated for fast, straightforward, and reliable determination of lactate in artificial and human sweat samples. The background electrolyte was composed of equimolar concentrations (10 mmol/L) of 2-(N-morpholino)ethanesulfonic acid and histidine, with 0.2 mmol/L of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide as electroosmotic flow inverter. The limit of detection and quantification were 3.1 and 10.3 µmol/L, respectively. Recoveries in the 97 to 118% range were obtained using sweat samples spiked with lactate at three concentration levels, indicating an acceptable accuracy. The intraday and interday precisions were 1.49 and 7.08%, respectively. The proposed CE-C4 D method can be a starting point for monitoring lactate concentrations in sweat samples for diagnostics, physiological studies, and sports performance assessment applications.

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. METHODS: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. RESULTS: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

Environmental Markers of Plastics and Microplastics.

The slow reaction rates to chemical and photochemical degradation are well-known properties of plastics. However, large plastic surfaces exposed to environmental conditions release particles and compounds that affect ecosystems and human health. The aim of this work was to identify compounds associated with the degradation of polyethylene (PE), polystyrene (PS), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) microplastics (markers) on silica and sand and evaluate their use to screen microplastics on natural sand. Products were identified by using targeted and untargeted LC-HRMS analysis. All polymers underwent chemical oxidation on silica. PE released dicarboxylic acids (HO2C-(CH2)n-CO2H (n = 4-30), while PS released cis/trans-chalcone, trans-dypnone, 3-phenylpropiophenone, and dibenzoylmethane. PVC released dicarboxylic acids and aromatic compounds. Upon irradiation, PE was stable while PS released the same compounds as under chemical oxidation but at lower yields. Under the above condition, PVC generated HO2C-[CH2-CHCl]n-CH2-CO2H and HO2C-[CH2-CHCl]n-CO2H (n = 2-19) dicarboxylic acids. The same products were detected on sand but at a lower concentration than on silica due to better retention within the pores. Detection of markers of PE and PS on natural sand allowed us to screen microplastics by following a targeted analysis. Markers of PVC were not detected before or after thermal/photo-oxidation due to the low release of compounds and limitations associated with surface exposure/penetration of radiation.

Haemostatic gene variations in cervical cancer-associated venous thrombosis: considerations for clinical strategies.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a life-threatening haemostatic disease frequently diagnosed among the cancer population. The Khorana Score is currently the primal risk assessment model to stratify oncological patients according to their susceptibility to VTE, however, it displays a limited performance. Meanwhile, intensive research on VTE pathophysiology in the general population has uncovered a range of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the condition. Nonetheless, their predictive ability concerning cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) is controversial. Cervical cancer (CC) patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy often experience VTE, which negatively affects their survival. Thus, aiming for an improvement in thromboprophylaxis, new thrombotic biomarkers, including SNPs, are currently under investigation. In this study, the predictive capability of haemostatic gene SNPs on CC-related VTE and their prognostic value regardless of VTE were explored. Six SNPs in haemostatic genes were evaluated. A total of 401 CC patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. The implications for the time to VTE occurrence and overall survival (OS) were assessed. CAT considerably impacted the CC patients' OS (log-rank test, P < 0.001). SERPINE1 rs2070682 (T > C) showed a significant association with the risk of CC-related VTE (CC/CT vs. TT, log-rank test, P = 0.002; C allele, Cox model, hazard ratio (HR) = 6.99 and P = 0.009), while F2 rs1799963 (G > A) demonstrated an important prognostic value regardless of VTE (AA/AG vs. GG, log-rank test, P = 0.020; A allele, Cox model, HR = 2.76 and P = 0.026). For the remaining SNPs, no significant associations were detected. The polymorphisms SERPINE1 rs2070682 and F2 rs1799963 could be valuable tools in clinical decision-making, aiding in thromboprophylaxis and CC management, respectively.

Development and validation of a stability-indicating method, structural elucidation of new degradation products from misoprostol by LC-MS time-of-flight, and an ex vivo study of vaginal permeation.

Misoprostol (MSP) is commonly prescribed in obstetrics and gynecology clinical practice for labor induction, cervical ripening, first-trimester pregnancy termination, and the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage. Furthermore, there is a lack of comprehensive discussion evaluating how different commercially available formulations influence the overall efficacy of MSP, even though reports indicate issues with the quality of these formulations, particularly regarding stability and vaginal absorption processes. This study investigates the stability of MSP under acidic conditions and its in vitro permeation using swine vaginal mucosa. A forced degradation study was conducted using 0.2 M HCl, and a high-efficiency LC method was developed. Three degradation products were identified and characterized using electrospray ionization-high-resolution quadrupole-time-of-flight-MS, with respective m/z values of 391.2508, 405.2705, and 387.2259, respectively. These results suggest that the degradation mechanism involves dehydration of the ß-hydroxy ketone moiety, followed by isomerization to its most resonance-stable form and de-esterification. Finally, the in vitro permeation study revealed that the esterified form of MSP was unable to permeate the mucosa and required prior degradation for any component to be detected in the receptor fluid.

Monitoring Bar Velocity to Quantify Fatigue in Resistance Training.

We analyzed the effects of load magnitude and bar velocity variables on sensitivity to fatigue. Seventeen resistance-trained men (age=25.7±4.9 years; height=177.0±7.2 cm; body mass=77.7±12.3 kg; back-squat 1RM=145.0±33.9 kg; 1RM/body mass=1.86) participated in the study. Pre- and post-exercise changes in the mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and peak velocity (PV) in the back-squat at different intensities were compared with variations in the countermovement jump (CMJ). CMJ height decreased significantly from pre- to post-exercise (∆%=-7.5 to -10.4; p<0.01; ES=0.37 to 0.60). Bar velocity (MPV and PV) decreased across all loads (∆%=-4.0 to -12.5; p<0.01; ES=0.32 to 0.66). The decrease in performance was similar between the CMJ, MPV (40% and 80% 1RM; p=1.00), and PV (80% 1RM; p=1.00). The magnitude of reduction in CMJ performance was greater than MPV (60% 1RM; p=0.05) and PV (40% and 60% 1RM; p<0.01) at the post-exercise moment. Low systematic bias and acceptable levels of agreement were only found between CMJ and MPV at 40% and 80% 1RM (bias=0.35 to 1.59; ICC=0.51 to 0.71; CV=5.1% to 8.5%). These findings suggest that the back-squat at 40% or 80% 1RM using MPV provides optimal sensitivity to monitor fatigue through changes in bar velocity.

Chemical Characterization and Biological Activities of Jandaíra Stingless Bee Products (Melipona subnitida, Ducke, 1911): A Brief Review.

Melipona subnitida (Ducke, 1911), a species of stingless bee, popularly known as Jandaíra, has a wide distribution in the Brazilian Northeast region, being an important pollinator of the Caatinga biome. This bee produces products such as honey, geopropolis, pollen (saburá) and wax that are traditionally used for therapeutic purposes and some studies report the biological properties, as well as its chemical composition. This review aimed to select, analyze and gather data published in the literature focusing on the chemical profile and bioactivities described for M. subnitida products. Data collection was carried out through the Capes Journal Portal platform, using the following databases: Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed. Original articles published in English and Portuguese were included, with no time limitation. The chemical composition of M. subnitida products has been investigated through chromatographic analysis, demonstrating the presence of a variety of phenolic compounds, such as flavonoids and phenylpropanoids, among other classes of secondary metabolites. These products also have several biological activities, including antioxidant, healing, antinociceptive, anti-inflammatory, antidepressant, antidyslipidemic, antiobesity, antifungal, antibacterial and prebiotic. Among the biological activities reported, the antioxidant activity was the most investigated. These data show that products derived from the stingless bee M. subnitida have promising bioactive compounds. This review provides useful information about the bioactivities and chemical profile of Melipona subnitida bee products, and a direction for future research, which should focus on understanding the mechanisms of action associated with the already elucidated pharmacological activities, as well as the bioactive properties of the main isolate's constituents identified in the chemical composition of these products.

Temporal Stability of Management Zone Patterns: Case Study with Contact and Non-Contact Soil Electrical Conductivity Sensors in Dryland Pastures.

Precision agriculture (PA) intends to validate technological tools that capture soil and crop spatial variability, which constitute the basis for the establishment of differentiated management zones (MZs). Soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) sensors are commonly used to survey soil spatial variability. It is essential for surveys to have temporal stability to ensure correct medium- and long-term decisions. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal stability of MZ patterns using different types of ECa sensors, namely an ECa contact-type sensor (Veris 2000 XA, Veris Technologies, Salina, KS, USA) and an electromagnetic induction sensor (EM-38, Geonics Ltd., Mississauga, ON, Canada). These sensors were used in four fields of dryland pastures in the Alentejo region of Portugal. The first survey was carried out in October 2018, and the second was carried out in September 2020. Data processing involved synchronizing the geographic coordinates obtained using the two types of sensors in each location and establishing MZs based on a geostatistical analysis of elevation and ECa data. Although the basic technologies have different principles (contact versus non-contact sensors), the surveys were carried out at different soil moisture conditions and were temporarily separated (about 2 years); the ECa measurements showed statistically significant correlations in all experimental fields (correlation coefficients between 0.449 and 0.618), which were reflected in the spatially stable patterns of the MZ maps (averaging 52% of the total area across the four experimental fields). These results provide perspectives for future developments, which will need to occur in the creation of algorithms that allow the spatial variability and temporal stability of ECa to be validated through smart soil sampling and analysis to generate recommendations for sustained soil amendment or fertilization.

Caffeine induces alveolar bone loss in rats submitted to orthodontic movement via activation of receptor activator of nuclear factor Ò¡B, receptor activator of nuclear factor Ò¡B ligand, and osteoprotegerin pathway.

INTRODUCTION: Caffeine is a widely consumed substance with several effects on bone metabolism. This study aimed to investigate the effect of caffeine on the bone tissue of rats submitted to orthodontic movement. METHODS: Twenty-five male Wistar rats underwent orthodontic movement (21 days) of the first permanent maxillary molars on the left side. The experimental group (caffeine; n = 13) and control group (n = 12) received caffeine and water, respectively, by gavage. Microcomputed tomography was performed to analyze orthodontic movement. Histologic analysis of the inflammatory infiltrate and osteoclast count by tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase were conducted. Maxilla tissue was evaluated for receptor activator of nuclear factor Ò¡B (RANK), RANK ligand (RANKL), and osteoprotegerin by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: Caffeine exhibited a lower bone volume/tissue volume ratio (78.09% ± 5.83%) than the control (86.84% ± 4.89%; P <0.05). Inflammatory infiltrate was increased in the caffeine group compared with the control group (P <0.05). A higher number of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase-positive cells was observed in the caffeine (9.67 ± 1.73) than in the control group (2.66 ± 0.76; P <0.01). Immunoexpression of RANK and RANKL in the caffeine group was greater than the control (P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The use of caffeine thermogenic induces alveolar bone loss in rats submitted to orthodontic movement via activation of RANK, RANKL, and osteoprotegerin signaling pathways.

Effect of quantitative feed restriction and sex class on sheep skin quality.

The aim was to evaluate the quality of the sheep skin of different sex classes submitted to different levels of feed restriction. Sheep without defined racial pattern of different sex classes (15 non-castrated males, 15 castrated males and 15 females), with initial body weight of 18.1 ± 0.4 kg and mean age of 90 days were distributed in a factorial 3 × 3, with three sex classes and 3 levels of feed restriction (ad libitum intake and restricted intake at 70 and 80%), with 5 repetitions. After slaughter, the skins were collected for physical-mechanical tests. The effect of the sex classes x levels of dietary restriction interaction was observed for transverse thickness and longitudinal rupture elongation (p < 0.05). Animals fed ad libitum had greater longitudinal transverse thickness (p < 0.05). Animals fed ad libitum and 70% feed restriction showed greater transverse elongation at break (p < 0.05). As for the difference between sex classes in the transverse thickness variable for tearing strength, the interaction sex classes x levels of feed restriction for transverse thickness, longitudinal thickness, transverse tearing strength and longitudinal tearing strength occurred (p < 0.05). Feed restriction reduces the physical quality of the skin of sheep of different sex classes, and the use of castrated male sheep in positive energy balance is recommended to obtain leather with greater thickness, longitudinal rupture elongation and transverse tear strength.

Cactus species and tree forage hay in the diet of dairy goats.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of the association of Opuntia stricta (OS) or Nopalea cochenillifera (NC) with Moringa hay (MY) or Leucaena hay (LY) on nutrient intake, ingestive behavior, serum biochemistry, and milk production and composition of dairy goat. Eight multiparous Saanen goats were used, with an average of 68 ± 8 days in milk and 48.5 ± 6 kg of initial weight, fed with the following treatment diets: OS + MY; OS + LY; NC + MY, and NC + LY. The treatments were distributed in a double Latin square, in a 2 × 2 factorial scheme (two varieties of cactus and two of hay). Goats fed with NC had higher (P < 0.05) intakes of dry matter, crude protein, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and non-fibrous carbohydrates. There was no influence (P > 0.05) on milk production, but goats fed with OS produced milk with higher (P < 0.05) fat content and presented higher (P < 0.05) feed efficiency. There was no effect (P > 0.05) of the hay type on the nutrient intake and milk production and composition of goats, but the animals fed with MY had higher (P < 0.05) serum cholesterol levels and greater efficiency of NDF rumination. Goats fed with OS showed greater feeding and rumination efficiency. Our results indicated that both cactus species could be successfully included in the diet of low yielding dairy goats fed 18.4% concentrate.

Three-month tapering and discontinuation of long- term, low-dose glucocorticoids in senior patients with rheumatoid arthritis is feasible and safe: placebo-controlled double blind tapering after the GLORIA trial.

OBJECTIVE: The randomised placebo-controlled GLORIA (Glucocorticoid LOw-dose in RheumatoId Arthritis) trial evaluated the benefits and harms of prednisolone 5 mg/day added to standard care for 2 years in patients aged 65+ years with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here, we studied disease activity, flares and possible adrenal insufficiency after blinded withdrawal of study medication. METHODS: Per protocol, patients successfully completing the 2-year trial period linearly tapered and stopped blinded study medication in 3 months. We compared changes in disease activity after taper between treatment groups (one-sided testing). Secondary outcomes (two-sided tests) comprised disease flares (DAS28 (Disease Activity Score 28 joints) increase >0.6, open-label glucocorticoids or disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) increase/switch after week 4 of tapering) and symptoms/signs of adrenal insufficiency. In a subset of patients from 3 Dutch centres, cortisol and ACTH were measured in spot serum samples after tapering. RESULTS: 191 patients were eligible; 36 met treatment-related flare criteria and were only included in the flare analysis. Mean (SD) DAS28 change at follow-up: 0.2 (1.0) in the prednisolone group (n=76) vs 0.0 (1.2) in placebo (n=79). Adjusted for baseline, the between-group difference in DAS28 increase was 0.16 (95% confidence limit -0.06, p=0.12). Flares occurred in 45% of prednisolone patients compared with 33% in placebo, relative risk (RR) 1.37 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.98; p=0.12). We found no evidence for adrenal insufficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Tapering prednisolone moderately increases disease activity to the levels of the placebo group (mean still at low disease activity levels) and numerically increases the risk of flare without evidence for adrenal insufficiency. This suggests that withdrawal of low-dose prednisolone is feasible and safe after 2 years of administration.

Points to consider: EULAR-UEMS standards for the training of European rheumatologists.

BACKGROUND: Postgraduate rheumatology training programmes are already established at a national level in most European countries. However, previous work has highlighted a substantial level of heterogeneity in the organisation and, in part, content of programmes. OBJECTIVE: To define competences and standards of knowledge, skills and professional behaviours required for the training of rheumatologists. METHODS: A European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) task force (TF) of 23 experts, including two members of the European Union of Medical Specialists (UEMS) section of rheumatology, was convened. The mapping phase consisted of the retrieval of key documents on specialty training in rheumatology and other related specialties across a broad set of international sources. The content of these documents was extracted and represented the foundation for the document draft that underwent several rounds of online discussion within the TF, and afterwards was also distributed to a broad group of stakeholders for collecting feedback. The list of generated competences was voted on during the TF meetings, while the level of agreement (LoA) with each statement was established by anonymous online voting. RESULTS: A total of 132 international training curricula were retrieved and extracted. In addition to the TF members, 253 stakeholders commented and voted on the competences through an online anonymous survey. The TF developed (1) an overarching framework indicating the areas that should be addressed during training, (2) 7 domains defining broad areas that rheumatology trainees should master by the end of the training programme, (3) 8 core themes defining the nuances of each domain and (4) 28 competences that trainees should acquire to cover each of the areas outlined in the overarching framework. A high LoA was achieved for all competences. CONCLUSION: These points to consider for EULAR-UEMS standards for the training of European rheumatologists are now defined. Their dissemination and use can hopefully contribute to harmonising training across European countries.

Predictors of flare in SLE patients fulfilling lupus low disease activity state: a cohort study of 292 patients with 36-month follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: The treatment target in SLE should be maintained stable by preventing flares. The objectives were to identify predictors of flare in patients attaining lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), and to assess whether remission with no glucocorticoids is associated with lower risk of flares. METHODS: This was a cohort study of SLE patients followed in a referral centre over 3 years. Baseline was the first visit where each patient attained LLDAS. Flares up to 36 months' follow-up were identified by three instruments: revised Safety of Estrogen in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA) Flare Index (r-SFI), SLEDAI-2000 (SLEDAI-2K) and SLE Disease Activity Score (SLE-DAS). Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters at baseline were evaluated as predictors of flare, with distinct models for each flare instrument, using survival analysis with univariate followed by multivariate Cox regression. Hazard ratios (HR) were determined with 95% CI. RESULTS: A total of 292 patients fulfilling LLDAS were included. Over follow-up, 28.4%, 24.7% and 13.4% of the patients developed one or more flare, according to r-SFI, SLE-DAS and SLEDAI-2K definitions, respectively. After multivariate analysis, the predictors of SLE-DAS flares were presence of anti-U1-ribonucleoprotein (anti-U1RNP) (HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.30, 3.59), SLE-DAS score at baseline (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.04, 1.54) and immunosuppressants (HR = 2.43, 95% CI 1.43, 4.09). These predictors were equally significant for r-SFI and SLEDAI-2K flares. Remitted patients with no glucocorticoids presented a lower risk of SLE-DAS flares (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.37, 0.98). CONCLUSION: In patients with LLDAS, anti-U1RNP, disease activity scored by SLE-DAS and SLE requiring maintenance immunosuppressants predict higher risk of flare. Remission with no glucocorticoids is associated with lower risk of flares.

Safety and efficacy associated with long-term low-dose glucocorticoids in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of long-term low-dose glucocorticoids (GCs) in RA. METHODS: A protocolised systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO No. CRD42021252528) of double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trials (RCTs) comparing a low dose of GCs (≤ 7.5mg/day prednisone) to placebo over at least 2 years was performed. The primary outcome investigated was adverse events (AEs). We performed random-effects meta-analyses and used the Cochrane RoB tool and GRADE to assess risk of bias and quality of evidence (QoE). RESULTS: Six trials with 1078 participants were included. There was no evidence of an increased risk of AEs (incidence rate ratio 1.08; 95% CI 0.86, 1.34; P = 0.52); however, the QoE was low. The risks of death, serious AEs, withdrawals due to AEs, and AEs of special interest did not differ from placebo (very low to moderate QoE). Infections occurred more frequently with GCs (risk ratio 1.4; 1.19-1.65; moderate QoE). Concerning benefit, we found moderate to high quality evidence of improvement in disease activity (DAS28: -0.23; -0.43 to -0.03), function (HAQ -0.09; -0.18 to 0.00), and Larsen scores (-4.61; -7.52 to -1.69). In other efficacy outcomes, including Sharp van der Heijde scores, there was no evidence of benefits with GCs. CONCLUSION: There is very low to moderate QoE for no harm with long-term low dose GCs in RA, except for an increased risk of infections in GC users. The benefit-risk ratio might be reasonable forusing low-dose long-term GCs considering the moderate to high quality evidence for disease-modifying properties.

Development of prediction models to select older RA patients with comorbidities for treatment with chronic low-dose glucocorticoids.

OBJECTIVE: To develop prediction models for individual patient harm and benefit outcomes in elderly patients with RA and comorbidities treated with chronic low-dose glucocorticoid therapy or placebo. METHODS: In the Glucocorticoid Low-dose Outcome in Rheumatoid Arthritis (GLORIA) study, 451 RA patients ≥65 years of age were randomized to 2 years 5 mg/day prednisolone or placebo. Eight prediction models were developed from the dataset in a stepwise procedure based on prior knowledge. The first set of four models disregarded study treatment and examined general predictive factors. The second set of four models was similar but examined the additional role of low-dose prednisolone. In each set, two models focused on harm [the occurrence of one or more adverse events of special interest (AESIs) and the number of AESIs per year) and two on benefit (early clinical response/disease activity and a lack of joint damage progression). Linear and logistic multivariable regression methods with backward selection were used to develop the models. The final models were assessed and internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS: A few variables were slightly predictive for one of the outcomes in the models, but none were of immediate clinical value. The quality of the prediction models was sufficient and the performance was low to moderate (explained variance 12-15%, area under the curve 0.67-0.69). CONCLUSION: Baseline factors are not helpful in selecting elderly RA patients for treatment with low-dose prednisolone given their low power to predict the chance of benefit or harm. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov; NCT02585258.

Giants of the Amazon: How does environmental variation drive the diversity patterns of large trees?

For more than three decades, major efforts in sampling and analyzing tree diversity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species diversity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of diversity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species diversity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The diversity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for example, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the diversity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high diversity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree diversity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high diversity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species diversity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species diversity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.

Influence of contextual factors and reliability of ultrasound skin measures in persons with systemic sclerosis and healthy controls.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the influence of contextual factors upon the evaluation of skin thickness and stiffness by ultrasound and to assess the reliability of these parameters. METHODS: Ultrasound dermal thickness (by B-mode, 18MHz) and skin stiffness (by shear-wave elastography, 9MHz) were assessed in persons with systemic sclerosis (SSc) and in healthy controls. The influence of contextual factors upon repeated measures was evaluated: (i) room temperature (16-17ºC vs. 22-24ºC); (ii) time of day (morning vs. afternoon), and (iii) menstrual cycle phase (menstrual vs. ovulatory). Differences were analysed using the related-samples Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Inter- and intra-rater reliability of ultrasound skin thickness and stiffness were evaluated in the 17 skin Rodnan sites of 20 persons with SSc and 20 healthy controls, under stable contextual conditions. RESULTS: A significant increase in ultrasound dermal thickness was observed at the leg in the afternoon vs morning, in both patients and controls. Similar observations were made for skin stiffness at the leg (in SSc) and at the foot (in SSc and controls) in the afternoon. No significant changes were observed in association with room temperature and menstrual cycle. Intra- and inter-rater-reliability was good to excellent for ultrasound dermal thickness and stiffness, both in SSc and healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of the ultrasound procedure within each day seems to influence the ultrasound measures at the legs and feet. Our study corroborates that ultrasound dermal thickness and skin stiffness are reliable domains to quantify skin involvement in SSc.