Subsequent primary neoplasms after childhood cancer therapy - design and description of the German nested case-control study STATT-SCAR.

BACKGROUND: Subsequent primary neoplasms (SPN) are among the most severe late effects and the second most frequent cause of death in childhood cancer patients. In this paper we introduce method and properties of the STATT-SCAR study (Second Tumor After Tumor Therapy, Second Cancer After Radiotherapy), which is a joint nested matched case-control study to evaluate the impact of chemotherapy (STATT) as well as radiotherapy (SCAR) on the risk of developing a SPN. METHODS: Based on the cohort of the German childhood cancer registry (GCCR), we selected patients diagnosed with a first neoplasm before age 15 or younger between 1980 and 2014. We selected those with a SPN at least half a year after the first neoplasm, and matched up to four controls to each case. Therapy data were acquired from various sources, including clinical study centers and treating hospitals. To analyze the impact of radiotherapy, organ doses were estimated by using reconstructed treatment plans. The effect of chemotherapy was analyzed using substance groups summarized after isotoxic dose conversion. RESULTS: 1244 cases with a SPN were identified and matched with 4976 controls. Treatment data were acquired for 83% of all match groups (one case and at least one control). Based on preliminary analyses, 98% of all patients received chemotherapy and 54% of all patients were treated with radiotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our data, detailed analyses of dose response relationships and treatment element combinations are possible, leading to a deeper insight into SPN risks after cancer treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at the German clinical trial register (DRKS) under number DRKS00017847 [45].

IVF and risk of Type 1 diabetes mellitus: a population-based nested case-control study.

STUDY QUESTION: Is the mode of conception (natural, subfertility and non-IVF, and IVF) associated with the risk of Type 1 diabetes mellitus among offspring? SUMMARY ANSWER: The risk of Type 1 diabetes in offspring does not differ among natural, subfertility and non-IVF, and IVF conceptions. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Evidence has shown that children born through IVF have an increased risk of impaired metabolic function. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A population-based, nested case-control study was carried out, including 769 children with and 3110 children without Type 1 diabetes mellitus within the prospective cohort of 2 228 073 eligible parent-child triads between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2017. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Using registry data from Taiwan, the mode of conception was divided into three categories: natural conception, subfertility, and non-IVF (indicating infertility diagnosis but no IVF-facilitated conception), and IVF conception. The diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes mellitus was determined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th or 10th Revision, Clinical Modification. Each case was matched to four controls randomly selected after matching for child age and sex, residential township, and calendar date of Type 1 diabetes mellitus occurrence. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Based on 14.3 million person-years of follow-up (median, 10 years), the incidence rates of Type 1 diabetes were 5.33, 5.61, and 4.74 per 100 000 person-years for natural, subfertility and non-IVF, and IVF conceptions, respectively. Compared with natural conception, no significant differences in the risk of Type 1 diabetes were observed for subfertility and non-IVF conception (adjusted odds ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.85-1.27]) and IVF conception (adjusted odds ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.50-2.03]). In addition, there were no significant differences in the risk of Type 1 diabetes according to infertility source (male/female/both) and embryo type (fresh/frozen). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although the population-level data from Taiwanese registries was used, a limited number of exposed cases was included. We showed risk of Type 1 diabetes was not associated with infertility source or embryo type; however, caution with interpretation is required owing to the limited number of exposed events after the stratification. The exclusion criterion regarding parents' history of diabetes mellitus was only applicable after 1997, and this might have caused residual confounding. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: It has been reported that children born to parents who conceived through IVF had worse metabolic profiles than those who conceived naturally. Considering the findings of the present and previous studies, poor metabolic profiles may not be sufficient to develop Type 1 diabetes mellitus during childhood. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was supported by grants from Shin Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital (No. 109GB006-1). The funders had no role in considering the study design or in the collection, analysis, interpretation of data, writing of the report, or decision to submit the article for publication. The authors have no competing interests to disclose. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Maternal overweight and obesity modify the association of serum fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with gestational diabetes mellitus: A nested case-control study.

AIMS: To examine the prospective association between fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and the modifying effect of overweight/obesity for this association. METHODS: Serum FGF21 levels were measured at 6-15 weeks of gestation among 332 GDM cases and 664 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate its association with GDM risk. Interaction analyses on multiplicative and additive scales were conducted to investigate the modifying effect of overweight/obesity. RESULTS: Elevated FGF21 levels were associated with a higher risk of GDM in multivariable models, but the positive association was attenuated after further adjustment for pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI). A significant multiplicative interaction was noted between FGF21 (both continuous and dichotomous) and pre-pregnancy BMI (p for interaction = 0.049 and 0.03), and the association was only significant in participants with pre-pregnancy BMI ≥24 kg/m2 . When participants were grouped based on pre-pregnancy BMI (≥24 and <24 kg/m2 ) and FGF21 levels (≥median and

A Negative Association between Plasma Phylloquinone and All-Cause Mortality in Chinese Adults with Hypertension: A Nested Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have revealed that vitamin K is essential for preventing various chronic diseases. Phylloquinone is the primary dietary and circulating form of vitamin K. However, data concerning the association between plasma phylloquinone and all-cause mortality are limited. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the association between plasma phylloquinone and risk of all-cause mortality and examine some potential confounders. METHODS: This study is a post hoc analysis of the RCT and a nested, case-control design was used. Enrolled participants had to have hypertension at baseline. Study initiation was 19 May, 2008, and the median follow-up was 4.5 y. A total of 604 mortality cases and 604 controls matched for age, sex, treatment group, and study site were included in this study. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause mortality were calculated using conditional or unconditional logistic regression, without or with adjusting for pertinent covariates, respectively. The concentration of phylloquinone was measured by liquid chromatography-tandem quadrupole mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS: The mean and median phylloquinone levels were 1.62 nmol/L and 0.89 nmol/L, respectively. There was a significant negative association between log-transformed plasma phylloquinone and all-cause mortality after controlling for potential confounders (per 1 unit increase-OR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.95). Furthermore, the association of plasma phylloquinone with risk of all-cause mortality differed by body mass index (BMI) (<25 kg/m2 compared with ≥25 kg/m2, P-interaction = 0.004). A significant trend of decreasing risk with increasing concentration of phylloquinone was observed in participants with higher BMI (per 1 unit increase-OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.90; P = 0.004). No significant correlation was found between phylloquinone and risk of all-cause mortality in those with BMI <25 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese patients with hypertension, there was a significant negative association between baseline plasma phylloquinone and all-cause mortality, especially among those with higher BMI.

Weighted metrics are required when evaluating the performance of prediction models in nested case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Nested case-control (NCC) designs are efficient for developing and validating prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain predictors, especially when the outcome is rare. Previous research has focused on how to develop prediction models in this sampling design, but little attention has been given to model validation in this context. We therefore aimed to systematically characterize the key elements for the correct evaluation of the performance of prediction models in NCC data. METHODS: We proposed how to correctly evaluate prediction models in NCC data, by adjusting performance metrics with sampling weights to account for the NCC sampling. We included in this study the C-index, threshold-based metrics, Observed-to-expected events ratio (O/E ratio), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis. We illustrated the proposed metrics with a validation of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in data from the population-based Rotterdam study. We compared the metrics obtained in the full cohort with those obtained in NCC datasets sampled from the Rotterdam study, with and without a matched design. RESULTS: Performance metrics without weight adjustment were biased: the unweighted C-index in NCC datasets was 0.61 (0.58-0.63) for the unmatched design, while the C-index in the full cohort and the weighted C-index in the NCC datasets were similar: 0.65 (0.62-0.69) and 0.65 (0.61-0.69), respectively. The unweighted O/E ratio was 18.38 (17.67-19.06) in the NCC datasets, while it was 1.69 (1.42-1.93) in the full cohort and its weighted version in the NCC datasets was 1.68 (1.53-1.84). Similarly, weighted adjustments of threshold-based metrics and net benefit for decision curves were unbiased estimates of the corresponding metrics in the full cohort, while the corresponding unweighted metrics were biased. In the matched design, the bias of the unweighted metrics was larger, but it could also be compensated by the weight adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Nested case-control studies are an efficient solution for evaluating the performance of prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain biomarkers, especially when the outcome is rare, but the performance metrics need to be adjusted to the sampling procedure.

OMICs Signatures Linking Persistent Organic Pollutants to Cardiovascular Disease in the Swedish Mammography Cohort.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) development may be linked to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including organochlorine compounds (OCs) and perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). To explore underlying mechanisms, we investigated metabolites, proteins, and genes linking POPs with CVD risk. We used data from a nested case-control study on myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke from the Swedish Mammography Cohort - Clinical (n = 657 subjects). OCs, PFAS, and multiomics (9511 liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) metabolite features; 248 proteins; 8110 gene variants) were measured in baseline plasma. POP-related omics features were selected using random forest followed by Spearman correlation adjusted for confounders. From these, CVD-related omics features were selected using conditional logistic regression. Finally, 29 (for OCs) and 12 (for PFAS) unique features associated with POPs and CVD. One omics subpattern, driven by lipids and inflammatory proteins, associated with MI (OR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.47; 2.79), OCs, age, and BMI, and correlated negatively with PFAS. Another subpattern, driven by carnitines, associated with stroke (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.16; 2.09), OCs, and age, but not with PFAS. This may imply that OCs and PFAS associate with different omics patterns with opposite effects on CVD risk, but more research is needed to disentangle potential modifications by other factors.

Prospective findings from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort: Exposure to various metals, the expression of microRNA-4286, and the incidence of acute coronary syndrome.

Mounting evidence suggests that metal/metalloid exposure is related to the adverse health effects. Our prior investigation revealed a positive relation between the plasma level of microRNA-4286 (miR-4286) and an increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, it is a lack of studies evaluating the connection between metal/metalloid exposure and miRNA expression on ACS. In the prospective Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, we performed a nested case-control study. A total of 480 ACS and 480 controls were carefully selected based on similar age, sex, and blood collection time. Using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, we assessed the plasma concentrations of 24 different metals. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to analyze the plasma miR-4286. We examined the relations of plasma metals with miR-4286 levels, the incidence of ACS, and the potential interactions. Using the multivariate conditional logistic regression models, we observed that the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for incident ACS were 1.79 (1.03, 3.12; P-trend = 0.03), 0.60 (0.41, 0.87; P-trend = 0.008), and 0.66 (0.46, 0.93; P-trend = 0.02), when comparing the extreme tertiles of aluminum, rubidium, and selenium, respectively. There was a relation between the concentration of rubidium in plasma and a decrease in the level of plasma miR-4286 (percent difference [95% CI]: -13.36% [-22.74%, -2.83%]; P-trend = 0.01). Both multiplicative (P interaction = 0.009) and additive interactions (relative excess risk due to interaction [95% CI]: 0.82 [0.59, 1.06]) were noted in our observation regarding the relationship between plasma aluminum and miR-4286 in incident ACS. The findings indicated that plasma aluminum was positively while plasma rubidium and selenium were negatively linked to an increased risk of developing ACS. Plasma aluminum exposure and plasma miR-4286 expression might synergistically affect the incident ACS risk. Controlling aluminum exposure was important for ACS prevention, especially for individuals with high expression of plasma miR-4286.

Serum folate and risk of disabling dementia: a community-based nested case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine associations between serum folate levels and risk of disabling dementia that required care under the national insurance (disabling dementia). METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study in a community-based cohort, the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study, involving 13,934 Japanese individuals aged 40-84 years at the baseline period of 1984-2005. Serum folate was measured in 578 cases of incident disabling dementia, and in 1,156 controls whose age (±1 years), sex, area of residence, and baseline year were matched with the cases. The diagnosis of disabling dementia was performed by attending physicians under the National Long-Term Care Insurance System in Japan. Conditional odds ratios of disabling dementia according to quintiles of serum folate were calculated using conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: After a 20.8-year follow-up, serum folate was inversely associated with risk of disabling dementia. The respective multivariable odds ratios (95% CIs) were 0.71 (0.51-0.99), 0.76 (0.54-1.06), 0.70 (0.49-1.00), and 0.62 (0.43-0.90) for persons with the second, third, fourth, and highest quintiles of serum folate as compared with the lowest quintile (P for trend = 0.03). A similar association was observed for dementia with or without stroke. CONCLUSION: In this nested case-control study with a long follow-up, low serum folate levels were associated with an increased risk of disabling dementia among Japanese individuals.

Prevalence of diabetes and hospitalization due to poor glycemic control in people with bladder cancer or renal cell carcinoma in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer (BC) and Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are the most common urogenital cancers among both sexes, with a yearly global incidence of around 500 000 each. Both BC and RCC have been linked to diabetes. Poor glycemic control (malglycemia) is a serious consequence of diabetes and a possible consequence of systemic treatments used in BC and RCC. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of diabetes and use of hospital-based care for malglycemia in people with BC or RCC. METHODS: This Swedish retrospective population-based register study used national health-data registers for longitudinal data on cancer incidence covering 15 years, use of hospital-based health care, and filled prescriptions of outpatient medications. Study endpoints included co-prevalence of diabetes in individuals with BC/RCC, healthcare resource utilization due to malglycemia, use of systemic corticosteroids, and changes in diabetes management for people with concomitant type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: We identified 36,620 and 15,581 individuals diagnosed with BC and RCC, respectively, between 2006 and 2019. The proportion of individuals registered with diabetes was 24% in BC and 23% in RCC. An association between BC/RCC and poor glycemic control was found, although the number of malglycemic events in hospital-based care were few (65/59 per 1000 individuals with diabetes and BC/RCC respectively with at least one event). An earlier switch to insulin-based diabetes management was observed in BC/RCC compared to matched individuals with type 2 diabetes but no cancer. The results also indicated an association between steroid treatment and poor glycemic control, and that systemic corticosteroids were more common among people with BC/RCC compared to diabetes controls. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of diabetes and increased use of systemic corticosteroid treatment observed in this large national study highlights the need for specific clinical management, risk-assessment, and monitoring of individuals with BC/RCC and diabetes.

Comorbidity increases the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis: a nested case-control study using multi-source big data.

BACKGROUND: Some medical conditions may increase the risk of developing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB); however, no systematic study on PTB-associated comorbidities and comorbidity clusters has been undertaken. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted from 2013 to 2017 using multi-source big data. We defined cases as patients with incident PTB, and we matched each case with four event-free controls using propensity score matching (PSM). Comorbidities diagnosed prior to PTB were defined with the International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10). The longitudinal relationships between multimorbidity burden and PTB were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. The associations between PTB and 30 comorbidities were examined using conditional logistic regression, and the comorbidity clusters were identified using network analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4265 cases and 17,060 controls were enrolled during the study period. A total of 849 (19.91%) cases and 1141 (6.69%) controls were multimorbid before the index date. Having 1, 2, and ≥ 3 comorbidities was associated with an increased risk of PTB (aOR 2.85-5.16). Fourteen out of thirty comorbidities were significantly associated with PTB (aOR 1.28-7.27), and the associations differed by sex and age. Network analysis identified three major clusters, mainly in the respiratory, circulatory, and endocrine/metabolic systems, in PTB cases. CONCLUSIONS: Certain comorbidities involving multiple systems may significantly increase the risk of PTB. Enhanced awareness and surveillance of comorbidity are warranted to ensure early prevention and timely control of PTB.

Antipsychotic medications and severe sepsis in schizophrenia: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis constitutes a condition that involves life-threatening organ dysfunction induced by severe infection. This nested case-control study investigated risk factors for severe sepsis and whether antipsychotic use is associated with severe sepsis risk in patients with schizophrenia, a topic that has not been comprehensively explored in previous studies. METHODS: We selected 39,432 patients with schizophrenia aged between 15 and 65 years from Taiwan's Psychiatric Inpatient Medical Claims database for the period 2000-2012. The case group comprised patients with severe sepsis after their first psychiatric admission (n = 1382). The case and control groups were randomly matched (1:4) by age, sex and first psychiatric admission (year) and finally comprised 1382 and 5528 individuals, respectively. We employed multivariable conditional logistic regression to identify (1) risk factors (physical illnesses and nonpsychiatric medications) and (2) antipsychotic-severe sepsis associations. RESULTS: Higher numbers of psychiatric admissions and physical illnesses such as delirium, cerebrovascular disease and cancer were significantly associated with a higher risk of severe sepsis. Furthermore, severe sepsis was associated with the use of antithrombotic agents, systemic corticosteroids and agents targeting the renin-angiotensin system. Clozapine (adjusted risk ratio = 1.65) and quetiapine (adjusted risk ratio = 1.59) use were associated with an increased risk of severe sepsis. The use of more than one antipsychotic drug could further increase this risk. CONCLUSION: Several physical illnesses and nonpsychiatric medications increase the risk of severe sepsis in patients with schizophrenia. Specifically, clozapine or quetiapine use significantly increased the risk of severe sepsis in these patients.

The impact of Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors on bone fracture risk: a nationwide nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic efficacy of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) in elderly patients with hypertension and at risk of fractures has been in the limelight because of accumulating evidence that localized RAS activation in bone tissue leads to osteoclastic bone resorption, resulting in osteoporosis. This study set out to investigate the association between RASi use and fracture incidence in a large cohort. METHODS: We employed a nested case-control design to investigate the association between RASi use and newly developed fractures. A case was defined as a patient newly diagnosed with a fracture between January 2004 and December 2015. We selected 1,049 cases and controls using 1:1 propensity score matching. Conditional logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the association between RASi exposure and fracture incidence. RESULTS: Overall, RASi usage was significantly associated with lower odds for fracture incidence (ever-users vs never-users: OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.59-0.91). We found that ARB-only users experienced fewer fractures than RASi-never users (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.49-0.86), whereas ACEi-only users or ARB/ACEi-ever users did not. In subgroup analysis, RASi-ever users without cerebrovascular disease, those with a BMI exceeding 23, and statin exposure had significantly lower ORs. CONCLUSIONS: The present study established a significant association between RASi use and reduced fracture incidence, thus highlighting the potential clinical utility of RASi use as a preventive strategy in elderly patients at risk for osteoporotic fractures.

Phthalate exposure and subfecundity in preconception couples: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Phthalates (PAEs) are endocrine-disrupting chemicals ubiquitously found in the environment. This study aimed to examine the association between exposure of PAEs and subfecundity in preconception couples. METHODS: This is a nested case-control study based on preconception cohort. Preconception couples with intention to conceive were enrolled and followed up until a clinically confirmed pregnancy or 12 menstrual cycles of preparation for conception. A total of 107 couples with subfecundity- time to pregnancy (TTP) more than 12 menstrual cycles, and 144 couples ≤12 cycles were included in the analysis. The levels of PAE metabolites in one spot urine samples were detected and compared between the groups. The weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression model and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model were used to examine the joint effects of couples' exposure to PAEs on subfecundity. RESULTS: Using the multivariate binary logistic regression model, compared to the lowest quartile of urinary ∑PAEs concentration group, both preconception females (aOR=2.42, 95% CI: 1.10-5.30, p=0.027) and males (aOR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.36-6.58, p=0.006) in the highest quartile group had an increased risk of subfecundity, and a dose-response relationship was observed between PAEs and the risk of subfecundity. The WQS analyses found that co-exposure to PAE mixture was a risk factor for subfecundity in preconception female (aOR=1.76, 95% CI: 1.38-2.26, p<0.001), male (aOR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.20-2.08, p=0.001), and couple (aOR=2.39, 95% CI: 1.61-3.52, p<0.001). The BKMR model found a positive combined effect of mixed exposure to PAEs on the risk of subfecundity. CONCLUSIONS: PAEs increase the risk of subfecundity in preconception couples. Our research reinforced the need of monitoring PAE exposure for the purpose of improving human reproductive health.

Plasma levels of urea cycle related amino acids in association with risk of ischemic stroke: Findings from a nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: The role of urea cycle related amino acids in the development of ischemic stroke (IS) remains unclear. The study aimed to evaluate the association of these amino acids with IS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a cohort study in Changshu, Eastern China. A total of 321 cases and 321 controls matched by age and gender were finally included. Plasma levels of ornithine, arginine, spermidine, and proline were measured using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass-spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Odds ratios (ORs) and their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Plasma ornithine was inversely associated with risk of IS [crude OR: 0.62 (95 % CI: 0.40-0.97)]. After adjustment for body mass index, smoking, hypertension, family history of stroke, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and total cholesterol, the corresponding ORs for the highest compared to the lowest quartiles was essentially unchanged [adjusted OR: 0.62 (95 % CI: 0.39-0.99)]. The risk association remained significant after repeating the analyses by excluding the first two years of follow-up. Plasma arginine, spermidine, and proline were not associated with the risk of IS. CONCLUSION: We observed that higher plasma levels of ornithine were associated with a lower risk of incident IS. Our novel findings suggest a protective role of ornithine in the pathogenesis of IS.

Influence of Sex and Sex-Based Disparities on Prevalent Tuberculosis, Vietnam, 2017-2018.

To assess sex disparities in tuberculosis in Vietnam, we conducted a nested, case-control study based on a 2017 tuberculosis prevalence survey. We defined the case group as all survey participants with laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis and the control group as a randomly selected group of participants with no tuberculosis. We used structural equation modeling to describe pathways from sex to tuberculosis according to an a priori conceptual framework. Our analysis included 1,319 participants, of whom 250 were case-patients. We found that sex was directly associated with tuberculosis prevalence (adjusted odds ratio for men compared with women 3.0 [95% CI 1.7-5.0]) and indirectly associated through other domains. The strong sex difference in tuberculosis prevalence is explained by a complex interplay of factors relating to behavioral and environmental risks, access to healthcare, and clinical manifestations. However, after controlling for all those factors, a direct sex effect remains that might be caused by biological factors.

Blood cell DNA methylation biomarkers in preclinical malignant pleural mesothelioma: The EPIC prospective cohort.

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive cancer mainly caused by asbestos exposure. Specific and sensitive noninvasive biomarkers may facilitate and enhance screening programs for the early detection of cancer. We investigated DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles in MPM prediagnostic blood samples in a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort, aiming to characterise DNAm biomarkers associated with MPM. From the EPIC cohort, we included samples from 135 participants who developed MPM during 20 years of follow-up and from 135 matched, cancer-free, controls. For the discovery phase we selected EPIC participants who developed MPM within 5 years from enrolment (n = 36) with matched controls. We identified nine differentially methylated CpGs, selected by 10-fold cross-validation and correlation analyses: cg25755428 (MRI1), cg20389709 (KLF11), cg23870316, cg13862711 (LHX6), cg06417478 (HOOK2), cg00667948, cg01879420 (AMD1), cg25317025 (RPL17) and cg06205333 (RAP1A). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the model including baseline characteristics (age, sex and PC1wbc) along with the nine MPM-related CpGs has a better predictive value for MPM occurrence than the baseline model alone, maintaining some performance also at more than 5 years before diagnosis (area under the curve [AUC] < 5 years = 0.89; AUC 5-10 years = 0.80; AUC >10 years = 0.75; baseline AUC range = 0.63-0.67). DNAm changes as noninvasive biomarkers in prediagnostic blood samples of MPM cases were investigated for the first time. Their application can improve the identification of asbestos-exposed individuals at higher MPM risk to possibly adopt more intensive monitoring for early disease identification.

Plasma total cholesterol concentration and risk of higher-grade prostate cancer: A nested case-control study and a dose-response meta-analysis.

Our previous publication found an increased risk of higher-grade (Gleason sum ≥7) prostate cancer for men with high total cholesterol concentration (≥200 mg/dl) in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). With additional 568 prostate cancer cases, we are now able to investigate this association in more detail. For the nested case-control study, we included 1260 men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1993 and 2004, and 1328 controls. For the meta-analyses, 23 articles studied the relationship between total cholesterol level and prostate cancer incidence were included. Logistic regression models and dose-response meta-analysis were performed. An increased risk of higher-grade (Gleason sum ≥4 + 3) prostate cancer for high vs low quartile of total cholesterol level was observed in the HPFS (ORmultivariable = 1.56; 95% CI = 1.01-2.40). This finding was compatible with the association noted in the meta-analysis of highest vs lowest group of total cholesterol level, which suggested a moderately increased risk of higher-grade prostate cancer (Pooled RR =1.21; 95%CI: 1.11-1.32). Moreover, the dose-response meta-analysis indicated that an increased risk of higher-grade prostate cancer occurred primarily at total cholesterol levels ≥200 mg/dl, where the RR was 1.04 (95%CI: 1.01-1.08) per 20 mg/dl increase in total cholesterol level. However, total cholesterol concentration was not associated with the risk of prostate cancer overall either in the HPFS or in the meta-analysis. Our primary finding, as well as the result of the meta-analysis suggested a modest increased risk of higher-grade prostate cancer, at total cholesterol concentrations exceeding 200 mg/dl.

Assessing risk model calibration with missing covariates.

When validating a risk model in an independent cohort, some predictors may be missing for some subjects. Missingness can be unplanned or by design, as in case-cohort or nested case-control studies, in which some covariates are measured only in subsampled subjects. Weighting methods and imputation are used to handle missing data. We propose methods to increase the efficiency of weighting to assess calibration of a risk model (i.e. bias in model predictions), which is quantified by the ratio of the number of observed events, $\mathcal{O}$, to expected events, $\mathcal{E}$, computed from the model. We adjust known inverse probability weights by incorporating auxiliary information available for all cohort members. We use survey calibration that requires the weighted sum of the auxiliary statistics in the complete data subset to equal their sum in the full cohort. We show that a pseudo-risk estimate that approximates the actual risk value but uses only variables available for the entire cohort is an excellent auxiliary statistic to estimate $\mathcal{E}$. We derive analytic variance formulas for $\mathcal{O}/\mathcal{E}$ with adjusted weights. In simulations, weight adjustment with pseudo-risk was much more efficient than inverse probability weighting and yielded consistent estimates even when the pseudo-risk was a poor approximation. Multiple imputation was often efficient but yielded biased estimates when the imputation model was misspecified. Using these methods, we assessed calibration of an absolute risk model for second primary thyroid cancer in an independent cohort.

Associations of plasma TMAO and its precursors with stroke risk in the general population: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a gut-derived atherogenic metabolite. However, the role of TMAO and its precursors in the development of stroke remains unclear. We aimed to examine the associations between metabolites in TMAO biosynthesis and stroke risk. METHODS: A nested case-control study was performed in a community-based cohort (2013-2018, n = 16,113). We included 412 identified stroke cases and 412 controls matched by age and sex. Plasma carnitine, choline, betaine, trimethyl lysine (TML), and TMAO were measured by ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Conditional logistic regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between these biomarkers and stroke risk. RESULTS: After adjustment for body mass index, smoking, hypertension, educational attainment, and estimated glomerular filtration rate, the corresponding OR for the highest versus lowest quartile was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.16-2.61, P trend = 0.006) for total stroke and 1.81 (95% CI: 1.14-2.86, P trend = 0.020) for ischemic stroke in an essentially linear dose-response fashion. A significant association between TMAO and nonischemic stroke was shown as a J-shape with OR for the highest versus second quartile of 5.75 (95% CI: 1.73-19.1). No meaningful significant risk association was found among plasma carnitine, choline, betaine, and TML with stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: Increased TMAO was associated with higher stroke risk in the community-based population, whereas the TMAO precursors carnitine, choline, betaine, and TML were not associated. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings and to further elucidate the role of TMAO in the development of stroke.

Plasma ß-Alanine is Positively Associated With Risk of Ischemic Stroke: a Nested Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested that ß-alanine as a neurotransmitter could affect the pathogenesis of ischemic damage. However, the association between circulating ß-alanine and risk of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been evaluated in populations. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the association between ß-alanine and IS risk in a nested case-control study. METHODS: We performed a case-control study nested within a prospective community-based cohort (n = 16457; median follow-up time: 5.3 y), which included 321 incident IS cases and 321 controls matched by age and sex. Β-alanine and other metabolites were measured in plasma after overnight fasting by LC-MS/MS. The association of ß-alanine with risk of IS was evaluated by conditional logistic regression. BMI, current smoking, educational attainment, physical activity, total energy intake, family history of stroke, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and estimated GFR were adjusted in multivariable models. RESULTS: There was a significant Spearman partial correlation between ß-alanine and 4-pyridoxic acid (ρ = 0.239; P < 0.001). Participants with elevated ß-alanine levels were more likely to develop IS with an adjusted OR of 1.26 (95% CI: 1.06-1.51; P = 0.011) (per standard deviation increment). This association remained significant after excluding the first 2 y of follow-up, and after further adjustment for red meat intake, total protein intake, medication use, or vitamin B6 indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel findings revealed that plasma ß-alanine at baseline were positively associated with risk of IS and may function as an early biomarker of IS risk.