Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California's freshwater ecosystems.

As human-caused climate changes accelerate, California will experience hydrologic and temperature conditions different than any encountered in recorded history. How will these changes affect the state's freshwater ecosystems? Rivers, lakes, and wetlands are managed as a water resource, but they also support a complex web of life, ranging from bacteria, fungi, and algae to macrophytes, woody plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In much of the state, native freshwater organisms already struggle to survive massive water diversions and dams, deteriorating water quality, extensive land cover modification for agriculture and urban development, and invasions of exotic species. In the face of climate change, we need to expand efforts to recover degraded ecosystems and to protect the resilience, health, and viability of existing ecosystems. For this, more process-based understanding of river, lake, and wetlands ecosystems is needed to forecast how systems will respond to future climate change and to our interventions. This will require 1) expanding our ability to model mechanistically how freshwater biota and ecosystems respond to environmental change; 2) hypothesis-driven monitoring and field studies; 3) education and training to build research, practitioner, stewardship, and policy capabilities; and 4) developing tools and policies for building resilient ecosystems. A goals-driven, hypothesis-informed collaboration among tribes, state (and federal) agencies, nongovernmental organizations, academicians, and consultants is needed to accomplish these goals and to advance the skills and knowledge of the future workforce of practitioners, regulators, and researchers who must live with the climate changes that are already upon us and will intensify.

Ancient Maya reservoirs, constructed wetlands, and future water needs.

The Classic Maya (c. 250 to 900 CE) in the tropical southern lowlands of Central America dealt with water scarcity during annual dry seasons and periods of climate instability via sophisticated urban reservoir systems they relied on for over a thousand years. Surface water is limited because typically rain percolates through the karstic terrain. I posit that Maya reservoirs functioned as do constructed wetlands (CWs) at present. Still-water systems like CWs and Maya reservoirs can become stagnant and nonpotable due to the build-up of nutrients that promote algal growth. Stagnant waters also serve as breeding grounds for mosquitoes that spread endemic diseases. CWs keep water clean via certain aquatic plants since all plants uptake nutrients (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus) and decomposing plant matter supports microbial biofilms that break down nutrients. CWs also support diverse zooplankton that prey on pathogens and bacteria that assist to denitrify water. CWs do not require the use of chemicals or fossil fuels and after the initial labor-intensive output become self-cleaning and self-sufficient with some maintenance. I posit that the Maya used a diverse array of aquatic plants and other biota to keep water clean in the same manner as do CWs, which I demonstrate using evidence from excavations and settlement maps, sediment cores and current wetlands, and the iconographic and hieroglyphic records. The next step is to combine what we know about ancient Maya reservoirs in conjunction with what is currently known about CWs to better address future water needs.

Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.

Methane (CH4) mole fractions from the large semiseasonal Llanos de Moxos wetlands (∼70,000 km2) in northern Bolivia were measured by aircraft flights and ground sampling during early March 2019 (late wet season). Daily fluxes of CH4 determined from the measurements using box models and inverse modeling were between 168 (± 50) and 456 (± 145) mg CH4⋅m-2⋅d-1 for the areas overflown, very high compared with those of previous Amazon basin studies. If the seasonality of the CH4 emissions is comparable to other parts of the Amazon Basin, the region could contribute as much as 8% of annual Amazonian CH4 emissions.

No city for wetland species: habitat associations affect mammal persistence in urban areas.

The fast rate of replacement of natural areas by expanding cities is a key threat to wildlife worldwide. Many wild species occur in cities, yet little is known on the dynamics of urban wildlife assemblages due to species' extinction and colonization that may occur in response to the rapidly evolving conditions within urban areas. Namely, species' ability to spread within urban areas, besides habitat preferences, is likely to shape the fate of species once they occur in a city. Here we use a long-term dataset on mammals occurring in one of the largest and most ancient cities in Europe to assess whether and how spatial spread and association with specific habitats drive the probability of local extinction within cities. Our analysis included mammalian records dating between years 1832 and 2023, and revealed that local extinctions in urban areas are biased towards species associated with wetlands and that were naturally rare within the city. Besides highlighting the role of wetlands within urban areas for conserving wildlife, our work also highlights the importance of long-term biodiversity monitoring in highly dynamic habitats such as cities, as a key asset to better understand wildlife trends and thus foster more sustainable and biodiversity-friendly cities.

Diversity of bacterial communities in wetlands of Calakmul Biosphere Reserve: a comparative analysis between conserved and semi-urbanized zones in pre-Mayan Train era.

BACKGROUND: The Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (CBR) is known for its rich animal and plant biodiversity, yet its microbial communities remain largely unknown. The reserve does not possess permanent bodies of water; nevertheless, seasonal depressions associated with fractures create wetlands, known locally as aguadas. Given the recent construction of the Maya train that crosses the CRB, it is essential to assess the biodiversity of its microorganisms and recognize their potential as a valuable source of goods. This evaluation is pivotal in mitigating potential mismanagement of the forest ecosystem. To enhance comprehension of microbial communities, we characterized the microbiota in three different wetlands. Ag-UD1 and Ag-UD2 wetlands are located in a zone without human disturbances, while the third, Ag-SU3, is in a semi-urbanized zone. Sampling was carried out over three years (2017, 2018, and 2019), enabling the monitoring of spatiotemporal variations in bacterial community diversity. The characterization of microbiome composition was conducted using 16S rRNA metabarcoding. Concurrently, the genomic potential of select samples was examined through shotgun metagenomics. RESULTS: Statistical analysis of alpha and beta diversity indices showed significant differences among the bacterial communities found in undisturbed sites Ag-UD1 and Ag-UD2 compared to Ag-SU3. However, no significant differences were observed among sites belonging to the undisturbed area. Furthermore, a comparative analysis at the zone level reveals substantial divergence among the communities, indicating that the geographic location of the samples significantly influences these patterns. The bacterial communities in the CBR wetlands predominantly consist of genera from phyla Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Proteobacteria. CONCLUSION: This characterization has identified the composition of microbial communities and provided the initial overview of the metabolic capacities of the microbiomes inhabiting the aguadas across diverse conservation zones. The three sites exhibit distinct microbial compositions, suggesting that variables such as chemical composition, natural and anthropogenic disturbances, vegetation, and fauna may play a pivotal role in determining the microbial structure of the aguadas. This study establishes a foundational baseline for evaluating the impact of climatic factors and human interventions on critical environments such as wetlands.

Critical role of water conditions in the responses of autumn phenology of marsh wetlands to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.

The Tibetan Plateau, housing 20% of China's wetlands, plays a vital role in the regional carbon cycle. Examining the phenological dynamics of wetland vegetation in response to climate change is crucial for understanding its impact on the ecosystem. Despite this importance, the specific effects of climate change on wetland vegetation phenology in this region remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated the influence of climate change on the end of the growing season (EOS) of marsh wetland vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau, utilizing satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and observational climate data. We observed that the regionally averaged EOS of marsh vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau was significantly (p < .05) delayed by 4.10 days/decade from 2001 to 2020. Warming preseason temperatures were found to be the primary driver behind the delay in the EOS of marsh vegetation, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation showed no significant impact. Interestingly, the responses of EOS to climate change varied spatially across the plateau, indicating a regulatory role for hydrological conditions in marsh phenology. In the humid and cold central regions, preseason daytime warming significantly delayed the EOS. However, areas with lower soil moisture exhibited a weaker or reversed delay effect, suggesting complex interplays between temperature, soil moisture, and EOS. Notably, in the arid southwestern regions of the plateau, increased preseason rainfall directly delayed the EOS, while higher daytime temperatures advanced it. Our results emphasize the critical role of hydrological conditions, specifically soil moisture, in shaping marsh EOS responses in different regions. Our findings underscore the need to incorporate hydrological factors into terrestrial ecosystem models, particularly in cold and dry regions, for accurate predictions of marsh vegetation phenological responses to climate change. This understanding is vital for informed conservation and management strategies in the face of current and future climate challenges.

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems.

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH4 fluxes (FCH4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH4 , with increases in FCH4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981-1989 to 2010-2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10-40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

Climate and mineral accretion as drivers of mineral-associated and particulate organic matter accumulation in tidal wetland soils.

Tidal wetlands sequester vast amounts of organic carbon (OC) and enhance soil accretion. The conservation and restoration of these ecosystems is becoming increasingly geared toward "blue" carbon sequestration while obtaining additional benefits, such as buffering sea-level rise and enhancing biodiversity. However, the assessments of blue carbon sequestration focus primarily on bulk SOC inventories and often neglect OC fractions and their drivers; this limits our understanding of the mechanisms controlling OC storage and opportunities to enhance blue carbon sinks. Here, we determined mineral-associated and particulate organic matter (MAOM and POM, respectively) in 99 surface soils and 40 soil cores collected from Chinese mangrove and saltmarsh habitats across a broad range of climates and accretion rates and showed how previously unrecognized mechanisms of climate and mineral accretion regulated MAOM and POM accumulation in tidal wetlands. MAOM concentrations (8.0 ± 5.7 g C kg-1 ) (±standard deviation) were significantly higher than POM concentrations (4.2 ± 5.7 g C kg-1 ) across the different soil depths and habitats. MAOM contributed over 51.6 ± 24.9% and 78.9 ± 19.0% to OC in mangrove and saltmarsh soils, respectively; both exhibited lower autochthonous contributions but higher contributions from terrestrial or marine sources than POM, which was derived primarily from autochthonous sources. Increased input of plant-derived organic matter along the increased temperature and precipitation gradients significantly enriched the POM concentrations. In contrast, the MAOM concentrations depended on climate, which controlled the mineral reactivity and mineral-OC interactions, and on regional sedimentary processes that could redistribute the reactive minerals. Mineral accretion diluted the POM concentrations and potentially enhanced the MAOM concentrations depending on mineral composition and whether the mineral accretion benefited plant productivity. Therefore, management strategies should comprehensively consider regional climate while regulating sediment supply and mineral abundance with engineering solutions to tap the OC sink potential of tidal wetlands.

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States.

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH4 emissions. This effort included creating an open-source database of chamber-based GHG fluxes (https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH4 m-2 year-1, with a median of 3.9 g CH4 m-2 year-1, and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH4 m-2 year-1. The highest fluxes were observed at fresh-oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid-fresh-oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m-2 s-1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems.

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.